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Saturday evening update

Like Maxwell Smart used to say: “Missed it by *that* much”. The warmer air was lurking right to our West for most of the day today. It simply didn’t move into the area. I feel that clouds and wind direction played a role, as did all the snow that we still have on the ground.
This surface map image (from about 3p today) is a treasure of information.
Sat SFC

As you can see, 50s and 60s were all over Central & Western Kansas. They’ve managed to melt away most of the snow from the last month. Also, look at the wind. Yes, I know it’s NW, but in this case, it was a downslope wind. In Western KS, when this type of thing occurs, it heats up the air even more. Toss in the sunshine they had today, and those were all the ingredients to get a nice Saturday afternoon.
1621999_635150243208726_917045134_n

For us, it was a matter of just being in the wrong place. We had winds out of the South to Southeast…cloud cover…and snow on the ground. That said, we did manage to do a little melting as the sun returned in the late afternoon. Check out the highs from today.
2 PM

Again, what a spread across the state. It appears we are in for something very similar on Sunday. Expect it to be warmer the more West you are and cooler the more East you are.
In the short-term, below is the hourly model output from the GFS LAMP. I agree that temps will likely take a dive after about midnight tonight, making for a cold start on Sunday. As the clouds return, and the winds go back around to the SE, it will be tough to get temperatures out of the 30s in KC.
meteo

I won’t go into much detail just yet, but I think we’ve got a few chances for moisture over the next week. First one will be Monday morning (where a mix of rain and sleet is possible). Next chance would be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Could hear a few rumbles of thunder Thursday morning. But the bulk of the dynamics will be to our East. Here’s a quick look at the ECMWF model for Thursday AM. Notice all the rain in Eastern Missouri.
ECMWF Thur AM

And then the third chance appears to be Friday night into Saturday. That one could be tricky. We’ll have to keep close eyes on it and see if we wind up with liquid precip…. or if we’re in for more of the frozen variety. Stay with the blog for all the details!

-JD

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2 comments to Saturday evening update

  • I am enjoying this!! It is warm enough for work to busy, but just cold enough where the snow melt is slow!!! So I get to enjoy two things at once! Still can’t wait for the part of the pattern that brings us more cold and snow!! I would love to -10 to -15 with 1-3 ft of snow in Olathe!

  • Ken

    Yesterday, it was “trending up”. Tonight is now an ice storm. Frustrating. They really blew the forecast for this weekend. Just Friday, they were saying 50s for Saturday and Sunday.