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Record Heat and Alberto’s Effect

Good Sunday bloggers,

I hope your Memorial day weekend is going well. We broke a record high on Saturday with a high of 93°. St. Joseph was 102°, smashing the old record set in 1967 of 94°. The record for KC today is 94° set in 2006 and we will come close, tie or even break it.

Yesterday, we talked about how the main jet stream is in Canada which is frustrating storm chasers and keeping widespread rain and thunderstorms away. The jet stream will come farther south this week and thunderstorm chances will increase, but Alberto tracking north into the Midwest may keep our area from seeing decent rainfall. I will explain below.

I captured this shot at about 6 AM Sunday and thought it was one of the more fascinating sunrises. There were a few showers and thunderstorms from Carrollton to Odessa. The sun enhanced the cumulonimbus clouds and since they were high based you could really make out the rain shafts. This is the kind of rain this weather pattern can support. Remember, it is, on average, the wettest time of year, so it is hard to keep all hours dry this weekend.

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SUNDAY: It will be hot and humid with some cumulus clouds. A few may build into cumulonimbus clouds and become thunderstorms. This will most likely occur across central, southern and eastern Missouri. But, still keep an eye to the sky. Highs will be 90°-95°. The record for KC is 94° in 2006 and the record for St. Joseph is 93° set in 2006 and 1966.  These will likely be tied or broken today.

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MEMORIAL DAY: It will be the same song and dance with highs in the 90s and a slight chance for a brief, small shower or thunderstorm. It may be a few degrees cooler as we have a few more clouds, but still it will be pretty steamy.

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Alberto will be making landfall in the Florida panhandle on Memorial day. It will track north into the eastern Midwest by Tuesday and Wednesday and may play a role in our weather.

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TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: We may see a few thunderstorms on Tuesday, but it will be another mostly dry, warm and humid day. Then, Tuesday night a disturbance will head east out of the Rockies generating a nice area of rain and thunderstorms in the western Plains. 9 out of 10 years at the end of May this area of rain would march across the state bringing our area a nice, widespread .50″-2″ of rain. However, this time it may be different. Alberto, on this data, is moving north through Illinois. There is always sinking air around these tropical systems. This track of Alberto puts us in the sinking air, so as the thunderstorms approach from the west, they would fall apart.

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WEDNESDAY: This data takes the big area of rain and thunderstorms into our area and breaks it in to pieces as it interacts with sinking air of Alberto. Alberto is in northern Illinois, also falling apart. Now, this is not set in stone, because if Alberto ends up 1-2 states farther east, then we will see the bigger area of rain and thunderstorms hold together for our benefit. There is no chance that Alberto will come far enough west to bring us rain directly.

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Have a great rest of your Memorial day weekend.

Please don’t drink and drive (cars and boats)

Jeff Penner

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