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Record Arctic Blast Is Forming

Good morning bloggers,

It is already very cold this morning with temperatures in the single digits, but a major Arctic Blast will be arriving this weekend.  The weather will be somewhat calm during the next day or so, and then we have two storm systems to track. The first one is smaller scale than the second one and we will discuss below. ARCTIC AIR WARNING! 1 This next Arctic blast, the 14th or 15th one of the season, will arrive this weekend with the coldest morning likely around Tuesday.  As you can see above the temperatures are forecast to get down to 30 or 40 degrees below zero in the United States.  That excessively cold area is forecast to be across Montana and North Dakota. Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  100% sunshine.  Cold with west winds increasing just a bit to around 10 to 15 mph later today. High: 30°
  • Tonight:  The next cold front moves, but this one is not the Arctic Blast.  Low: 12°
  • Thursday:  Mostly sunny and cold. High:  25°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of snow or sleet.  Some accumulation is possible.  High:  29°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy & very cold. There is a 40% chance of snow or sleet. High:  19°
  • Saturday night-Sunday:  Snow likely with accumulations possible. It’s still a bit early to pin down amounts.  High Sunday:  13°

In-Depth Weather Discussion:

2The California coast has been under the influence of a strong blocking pattern the entire winter season and as storm systems approach the west coast, they have been ripped apart by this ridge. A storm is now approaching California from the eastern Pacific and again this one is going to have a hard time getting through the ridge.  You can also see the developing Polar Vortex. This is the 500 mb flow forecast valid this evening (around 18,000 feet above us).

3By noon Thursday take a look at what happens to this first storm system. How this breaks through the ridge is important for our area because this is the energy that will be moving our way and affecting us on Friday.  How will it get through the ridge, and then how will it evolve as it approaches Kansas City on Friday morning?  The Friday storm will be a fast moving disturbance.  The weekend storm is much slower, stronger, and broader.

Now, one more thing about this first system on Friday. It is a much smaller system, barely a storm at all as it passes by to our south.  So, confidence on any precipitation and the type of precipitation will continue to be low all the way into Friday, I hate to say.  We will have to watch it closely because it is on such a small scale.  As this system moves by Friday the Arctic Blast will be approaching from the northwest.  This will be a strong Arctic front and the strength of the Arctic air will likely have an influence on where the heavier winter precipitation sets up over the weekend.

We will update the blog later this afternoon or evening.  In the mean time let us know if you have any questions or comments, and I will also be showing the overall weather pattern and how it relates to the LRC on the Weather 2020 blog by early this afternoon.  Thank you so much for sharing in this weather experience. Remember the rules of the blog as the weather gets more exciting. Some of us get a bit emotional.  No personal attacks will be allowed.  And, please do not mention the competition by name, just saw another station or something like that.  With all of the weather apps now a days we can get our weather information from so many sources. We will have our own forecast here and on 41 Action News.  So, hang on, enjoy the ride, and let’s have some fun.  Have a great day.

Gary

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161 comments to Record Arctic Blast Is Forming

  • Kcchamps

    Gary,

    wherever the mix/snow line sets up for the sat/sun storm, do you think it has the potential to have a band of a foot or more of snow as the GFS has been saying for the past few days?

    thanks

  • luvsno

    Mr Lezak, All I have to say about this cold is PFFFFFFTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!! lol

  • Homer

    I have family traveling from Nebraska and KC to N/NW Kansas for my mother’s 80th birthday party – Party is on Saturday afternoon. How fast is this bigger system looking to hit? Any info on timing and precip types is appreciated – trying to decide to postpone or not.

  • luvsno

    Well, just like I said on here yesterday ……Someone on FB mentioned that they had heard the “big show” was going to be Sat/Sun, mostly sleet and not a lot of snow. Nothing for Monday. This was at the same time when the KSHB 7 day was showing a Sun/Mon scenario with heavy snow on Sunday.
    Looks like it will be a Sat/Sun event with mixture after all. Gary was just now on 610 Sports Radio/38 the Spot and said the heavy snow would be up near Iowa border.

  • yewtrees

    Interestingly, NWS doesn’t seem to be too concerned about this upcoming bitter cold front. They still have not issued any watch or warning!!!

  • yewtrees

    Is arctic air warning for Montana and North Dakota since you mentioned that their temps are going to be 30 or 40 degrees below zero? What about the temp in KC?

    • sedsinkc

      The model forecast Gary pictured above predicts temps of -5 to -10 in the KC area next Tuesday morning. We will need a nice base of snow to get that cold and it’s a possibility. Interesting that Tuesday (March 4) is the date that the all-time record low of -10 for March was set, on March 4, 1978. That all time low was set in the aftermath of a 7.2 inch snowfall on March 1 and 2, 1978.

      • yewtrees

        I wonder the history will repeat itself. Only time can tell.

        • Drought Miser

          Wow if that cycles back through we could get hammered!!! Seds you are a regular humanoid computer of facts wish I could come up with those so easily as you appear to do ! :)

      • Thank you for the stats Seds! And, of all days, we likely wouldn’t set that record of -10, unless there is a deep snow pack. We will see, we may set records the day before or the day after.

        Gary

        • sedsinkc

          Just saw Jeff Penner’s Twitter graphic re next Wed.’s forecasted low temps from model data. Historic if verified!

          • Seds,

            Crazy isn’t it? If we get the snow and the high comes right over us at prime time overnight, it will not be far off. Maybe that -20 will be further north, but still ridiculous!

            Jeff

  • yewtrees

    The latest 12Z NAM still has no sign of snow for Friday!!!

  • Jerry

    For what its worth, I think your statements like “We have issued an Arctic Air Warning!” are entirely inappropriate. You’ve done it a handful of times now this season and I’m surprised you haven’t been called out by your legal team.

    Watches and warnings are the sole province of the National Weather Service.

    You do yourself a disservice, to say nothing of your viewers, when you claim the authority to issue warnings.

    • Dobber

      Come on Jerry, it isn’t that big of a deal. Lezak has done this the last several winters. Everyone knows its not like a tornado warning.

    • anshad

      Jerry, Here is what you ARENT thinking about… This type of cold KILLS PEOPLE! “Issuing” means to supply or distribute (something). Gary is merely distributing the message that this EXTREME COLD weather that can KILL People.

      Here’s the issue with the NWS: They are meteorologists as well… An Arctic Air Warning is not an official watch or warning product, and until that is the case, I would lay off criticizing someone that is certified in a field that YOU are NOT.

    • sedsinkc

      As long as Gary includes a caveat that his Arctic Air Warning is not an official NOAA/NWS warning, KSHB legal shouldn’t have a problem with it. Gary has made that clear in the past, but he should probably continue to include the caveat any time he issues his Arctic Air Watch or Warning. As for cold that kills people, the NWS will issue Wind Chill Advisories and Wind Chill Warnings as appropriate in the coming days. Currently, there are Wind Chill Advisories in effect for much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

    • Chuck

      Good lord. That is ridiculous Jerry. Are you just finding something……something you can complain about? It isn’t something the nws issues, so anyone can say it. I am issuing an arctic air warning myself. Should I be worried that I will be sued? It’s the job of mets that don’t work for the nws to inform us in more detail of what will be happening, which the nws does not do near as well, in my opinion. I thnk everyone on this blog is smart enough to know that the nws does not have an arctic air watch or warning.

    • Jerry,

      It isn’t an official warning. But, in my opinion it should be. I have clearly stated that we are issuing it just as a head line and I have said it isn’t official from the National Weather Service. What do you see wrong with it? It certainly seems like an important one to issue a week or two before. Of course, using the LRC we could issue one weeks ahead of time.

      Gary

    • Jerry

      In yesterday’s post about the Arctic Air, with the pink graphic, there is no caveat that this is not an official NWS warning. It simply says “There are three or four chances of winter precipitation in the next week as the weather pattern produces another major Arctic Blast. We have issued an Arctic Air Warning!”

      As for the point that this isn’t something the NWS issues – they do issue products cold weather warning products — wind chill advisories and warnings.

      • JohnM

        Jerry, do you complain on New Year’s Eve, when Gary issues a Drunk Driving Watch?

        I have no complaint about that use of language, but another one bothers me. Can we call the influx of cold air, just once, something besides a ‘blast”? That’s the word KSHB uses over and over and over again, and I think it’s worn-out.

        • John,

          Great points. And, very soon there “Blast” Will not be used. For now, I am sorry we have to hear about it so often this winter, but it’s true.

          Gary

      • Jerry,

        There is really nothing wrong with me issuing an Arctic Air Warning! But, I will try to add in the wording every single time that it is just to let you know what we think, and it is not an official warning from the NWS.

        Gary

        • Joe

          Gary,

          There is seriously no need for you to add that every time. Common sense and logic and basic comprehension should prevail thus, we all understand its not an official warning and your simply doing your job. You know that if you give in to the complainers every time, you will create an unstoppable wave of constant “nit-pickers” Keep up the good work and by all means, know that your warnings and wealth of information is heard by and acted upon by many which, probably saves potential injury and or worse.

  • someweatherdude

    I was checking out the NOGAPS and Canadian models, and they both seem to keep the rain/snow line well south of KC for the Sat/Sun storm. The NWS has been saying the same about EMCWF. And the GFS has moved the heaviest snow further south, suggesting that it MAY start a trend of moving the 540 thickness line south.

    It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

    Here’s a link to the Canadian and NOGAPS models. I don’t think they have the latest runs yet. But still interesting.

    “http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html”

  • sedsinkc

    Kansas City’s meteorological winter is currently the 7th coldest on record with 3 days to go. Meteorological winter ends on Friday. Here are the winters ahead of this winter:
    Season Average Temperature
    1978-79 21.5
    1977-78 21.9
    1935-36 24.5
    1917-18 24.9
    1904-05 24.9
    1981-82 25.1
    2013-14 25.7

    Interesting that the 1935-36 winter, the 3rd coldest on record, was followed by the 2nd hottest summer on record! The dryness of the Dust Bowl probably had a hand in that.

    NWS Chicago reports that Chicago will likely finish with the 3rd coldest meteorological winter on record.
    NWS Minneapolis notes they have had the 10th coldest winter on record as of yesterday with 3 days to go.

    • sedsinkc

      I averaged meteorological winter temperatures by months to compile the above data. Using this methodology, this winter is currently tied for 7th place with the winter of 1983-84. You can also average the temperatures by days. If you use this methodology, this winter is currently the 8th coldest and 1983-84 is the 7th coldest, 0.4 degrees colder than this winter.

      • Drought Miser

        Crazy stuff Seds I like winter and all but last night working 2nd shift at the new Ikea plant that wind chill was ridiculous and the snow flurries coming down just made for a very miserable late February night

  • Farmgirl

    Do you see the storm system on Sunday into Monday as an ice event or just light glazing?

    I really don’t find anything fun about snow and ice. Especially the ice part. Makes outdoor activities extremely hazardous and it is especially hard on livestock to have freezing rain in such cold temps. I am so done with the Arctic air this winter.

  • Drought Miser

    All other outlets(well mostly) are jumping on board with the Arctic blast (once again great job Gary) this winter is going to go down as one for the ages Epic I tell you!!! I’m amazed at the Lrc cycle and how it pegged way back in early November each and every arctic blast after arctic blast even a few cold outbreaks in October that could have been deemed Arctic

  • yewtrees

    This is Gary’s 2013-2014 winter weather forecast based on LRC:
    • Near to above average temperatures
    • Above average rain & snow
    • Snowfall forecast: 22″
    • Two Arctic Outbreaks
    • One moderate to strong ice storm
    • No chance of a drought next spring
    I wonder why he didn’t see more arctic outbreaks and colder temps out of LRC. But the snowfall forecast is pretty good.

    • Incredible. I don’t ever remember a winter with this many Arctic blasts. I should have said BELOW average temperatures, and 15 Arctic Outbreaks.

      Gary

      • Hockeynut69

        Gary had you predicted 15 and it been 15, someone like Jerry will say that there were actually 14 and that you exaggerated one to get to 15 or if it had been 16, they would say you didn’t count one that should have counted. They will nitpick to try to find something to complain about.

        I am concerned about the ice, power outages, and the cost of these storms really adding up. Come on Spring!

  • frigate

    Great info Seds…so are you able to provide stats on what each spring was like following those bitter cold winters? Hope its good news…who wants to predict how many more artic blasts there will be before May…this is just crazy!!!!

    • sedsinkc

      Here’s the information on the relative warmth of the Springs following those 7 coldest Winters on record in KC:
      1979 Tied for 25th coldest
      1978 Tied for 12th coldest
      1936 Tied for 8th warmest
      1918 Tied for 29th warmest
      1905 Tied for 21st warmest
      1982 Tied for 36th coldest
      1984 #1 Coldest
      2014 ????

      I think this spring will be colder than average, fwiw.

  • Pete Capone

    Facts:

    Dec-Feb @ KCI:

    Temps: Dec, Jan, Feb (through yesterday) More than 5 degrees below normal.
    Precip: Dec, Jan, Feb (through yesterday) 1.34 inches below normal.
    Snowfall: 22.6 inches (almost perfect).
    Arctic outbreaks: At least 10 so far.
    Ice storm: 0
    Drought: TBD, but we are below average precip.

    You be the judge. Other than snowfall, looks like misses. Facts are indisputable.

  • batman

    Seds great info as always. You should change your handle to the stat man! I’m sick of this cold and next week is just going to suck big time. Can’t wait for a heat wave!!

  • batman

    errr very hard to have a conversation when moderated all the time. What’s up with the moderation?

  • kurtjon

    I have a question, I believe last week in our local newspaper (St. Joseph News-Press) there was an article about the potential for spring floods and that they didn’t see much potential. I can’t recall if that was for the Missouri River basin only or the entire nation.

    Wouldn’t the extremely frozen ground we have factor in to whether or not we see severe flooding? I presume, or hope that it eventually warms up and if that is accompanied by heavy rain and it occurs before the ground is thawed wouldn’t that lead to flood potential?

    Also I would assume there would be a greater flood threat for the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys with all the snow pack and record snow amounts, just wondering.

    While I am a snow lover, really don’t need more snow after it melted, my yard and driveway was a gloppy mess last week until it refroze :-)

  • luvsno

    Hey everyone, Want a good laugh ? I am not at all making fun of the tough job that mets have….but this clip is good. very funny. Might as well have a sense of humor to deal with that nasty Polar Vortex coming again. Check out this vido

    “http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zbHW1T7boSc”

    • PaolaWeatherNewbie

      That was literally the most awesome weather video I have ever seen!!! I could not stop laughing! Thanks for sharing that!

  • someweatherdude

    Following up on my last post regarding the fact that the GFS may start to trend south . . . . it has indeed done so. 12z GFS shows heavy snow expanding down south of the KC metro (8-10 inches). Heaviest is still up in northern Missouri. But over the last 24 hours, the heaviest has trended about 150 miles south. Looks like the GFS may be starting to pick up on the colder solutions of the ECMWF, NOGAPS and Canadian models.

    Here we go. The modelitis scourge begins.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=129″

    • luvsno

      someweatherdude…..South of the KC metro looks to me like 6-8, not 8-10….I was trying to zero in on JoCo Ks…hard to pinpoint it though without county lines on there.
      At any rate it does look like we will get something measurable….and it is a “snowfall” map, not sleet/freezing rain ?

      • someweatherdude

        Yeah. South of KC is closer to 6-8. I was looking more at the KC metro proper. And it looked like 8-10. Hard to tell exactly.

        • Drought Miser

          I like model shifts in our direction as we get closer to an event hopefully the Nam tomorrow aligns us in the bullseye !!! Hey if we gotta be cold let’s get some snow in here!!!

  • sedsinkc

    Latest GFS very interesting for both Friday and weekend storms. It takes most of Friday’s snow south and southeast of KC and lowers total amounts, but for the weekend has the heavy snow swath (6 inches to 1 foot) from KC to the MO IA border and keeps much of the sleet south of KC. This map is 48 hour snowfall valid at 9 pm Sunday. “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022612&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=111″

  • sedsinkc

    IF KC to Iowa gets 6 to 12 inches of snow this weekend, the -10 all time record low for March could be threatened early next week.

    • Pete Capone

      Seds, agree 100%. It will take deep snow cover to get there, but -10 is absolutely doable with the “freezer effect”.

  • Drought Miser

    Gary….
    Let’s do another contest… last 32 degrees day of the 2013-2014 winter/spring season, the winner gets an ice scraper !!!
    Ummm April 26th at 6:22am is my guess

  • Kole Christian

    GFS has consistently given my area a good 6+ inches over the next 5 days! Latest model gave us a foot. Not getting my hopes up for that much yet, but we’ll get something I’m sure. The GFS has been pretty reliable this year for Maryville at least. It doesn’t have to deal with the Tonganoxie split.

  • stjoeattorney

    If seds map verifies that 12 inch line is right on STJOE. Two 10+ inch storms in one season heck four or five weeks apart is rare.

  • Micah

    This map shows the percentage of time we’ve been below 32F since December 1:
    “https://twitter.com/akrherz/status/438693209825243136/photo/1″

  • frigate

    May 8th for last freeze

  • sedsinkc

    Here’s that low temp map Jeff Penner posted on Twitter earlier: “https://twitter.com/JeffPennerKSHB/status/438723354573299712/photo/1″

  • saltyplow

    ARTIC WARNING ARTIC WARNING Take cover! The sky if falling! Is Katie back in town? It may snow but we won’t know till it does. And we’ll find a way to fit it into the LRC if so. Let’s break into programming to get some more attention and tell everyone it’s WINTER!!!

    • someweatherdude

      Saltyplow:

      You and others like you should read this article: Internet Trolls Really Are Horrible People

      link:

      “http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/climate_desk/2014/02/internet_troll_personality_study_machiavellianism_narcissism_psychopathy.html”

      • sedsinkc

        LOL…I posted the same link for a troll on the other Lezak blog a couple weeks ago.

        • luvsno

          Well that didn’t take long…..muku is baaack……or one of his croonies.
          Can’t have a decent troll-free blog no matter what. They cannot moderate 24/7, so we just need to ignore them.

      • saltyplow

        You and sheep like you should keep yopur mouth shut unless you’re baaaaahing. I am not a troll, just pointing out the ludicrous nature of this whole LRC and other attention grabs. They can’t say with certainty what the weather will be this weekend, but can predict months out. Remind me of a fortune teller…”I see a J name in your past”. Gary jumps up and down and sensationalizes the forecast “hooks” to try to drive up ratings, which 41 has been at the bottom of the entire time he has been here. You regulars take it hook, line and sinker without questioning and want to have a little love-fest blog where the snow king is worshiped. It eventually catches up with them..ask little Katie in the corner (St. Louis now).

      • luvsno

        So the next time you find yourself reeling over a particularly hateful comment on your favorite website, take some comfort in knowing that you’re just another anonymous pawn in the internet troll’s game. They’ve got some serious personal issues going on that they might not even realize.

        “http://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2014/feb/25/internet-trolls-are-also-real-life-trolls”

        • Chuck

          I read the article. Interesting stuff in knowing that muku could, in theory, be a serial killer or other sadistic person.

    • Farmgirl

      Thanks for letting me know about the up and coming Art shows…AKA ARTIC.

    • someweatherdude

      12z GFS snowfall map out to 120 hours. Has most of KC metro proper in the 8-10 inch range.

      “http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif”

      • Drought Miser

        Now we’re talking bout time they up those totals looking more and more likely to be a March Wallop !!!

      • sedsinkc

        Here is a more zoomed-in version of the same map: “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

        • sedsinkc

          The snow in MO to the south of Osage Beach is what is predicted to fall on Friday. This map shows total snowfall from now until next Monday at 6 am.

  • f00dl3

    GFS 24-hr 2 Meter Minimum Temperature — Instant Weather Maps http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022612&time=24&var=TMINF&hour=165 via @IWXM

    12z GFS has Kansas City between -20 and -30 F. KCI at -22 F on WED AM.

    BUT —- last time this happened, KCI only dropped to -6 F.

  • batman

    The way it’s going the last freeze will be in June sometime!

  • Pete Capone

    April 27 is 54 days from next Tuesday (looks to be the worst cold of the year so far). If LRC is close, that should be our last freeze.

  • olathedave

    Royals opening day tickets go on sale Saturday at inflated prices. What does the LRC say about April 4th before I empty the pocketbook?

    • sedsinkc

      Well below average temperatures. 57 days (1 current LRC cycle) before April 4 was February 6, which had a high of 10 and a low of -6. February 6 was two days after our 8-12″ snowstorm.

      • olathedave

        Thanks. Always seems to be in the 50′s or 60′s but with terrible wind on opening day. Sounds like might be worse this year. With ticket prices 200% or more higher this year of opening day, wouldn’t it be something if the game didn’t sell out?

    • OlatheMatt

      OlatheDave I know what you are talking about. I went to opening day last year and ticket prices were ridiculous. People buy tickets and then flip them for unreasonable prices just because its opening day. I may just wait for a couple of games to buy tickets. You have your individual flippers, and then these wholesale companies that buy dozens to hundreds of tickets and them pimp them out. I wish there were rules against that.

      • sedsinkc

        They used to call such people ticket scalpers and it is or was illegal in some places, but never in Kansas since I lived here. Such is life in a market-based economy. Now even the Royals themselves use this market system to justify charging more for high-demand series such as the Cardinals.

    • sedsinkc

      Average high on April 4 is 62.

      • sedsinkc

        The coldest high temperature on record for April 4 is 28. It also snowed 3.6 inches on that coldest date, April 4, 1920.

  • reafamily

    My principal just said that they received a report to expect up to 16 inches of snow and up to 2 inches of ice (Mexico, Missouri). I don’t know where they received their information from, but that is more than what I have been seeing from the models. Not sure why the school would receive something so hyped, especially since last storm we received no information.

    BTW – to the person who posted there had been no ice storms this season – try again. There are many people in the viewing area who have received more than a glazing of ice a couple of times this year. We missed President’s Day (a make up day) due to ice. (I am not in the KC viewing area, so I don’t count myself as part of the statistics, but I still have family and friends there who are)

    • Pete Capone

      Re-read the post. It states “KCI”. That’s the official location for Gary’s winter forecast. I excluded all other reporting stations because KCI is the validation point. Don’t take it personally.

  • f00dl3

    12z GFS also has parts of Northern Missouri approaching -40F next WED!

    ECMWF has a low throwing WAA over us and has us much warmer.

  • Drought Miser

    Wow even with this late February sun angle it’s still so cold out here this afternoon!!!

  • j-ox

    Fwiw & here in Lawrence……..TWC has reduced the chances of precip for this Fri from 70% to 20%.

  • yewtrees

    Again, no sign of snow for Friday based to the latest 18Z NAM!!!

    • sedsinkc

      I think Friday’s system will be a dud. NAM shows us getting less than 1/10 of an inch of ice or rain, no snow. Even if it snowed, it would amount to little. NAM has temps rising to near 40 here on Friday afternoon, which seems a bit hard to believe with a reinforcing shot of cold air coming in here tomorrow.

      • yewtrees

        NAM has been very consistent of showing no snow for Friday from the past few runs. It is going to be interesting to find out what NAM does for the weekend’s storm tomorrow.

  • dpollard

    The NAM has developed a case of Alzheimers!

  • batman

    It would be nice if my comments were not always stuck in MODERATION errr. Go back to the 2020 blog PLEASE!!

  • craigmac

    NWS Pleasant Hill is not showing much for the metro on Friday.
    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • luvsno

    Oh good lord….now PHIL ROBERTSON……(salty plow on this blig..same person) and dougy are back on the 2020 blog ! i say PHIL and salty are the same because they both mention Katie Horner.
    Here is what PHIL said ….and they both go on and on…..
    “Its a damn joke. And the losers that follow him need to wake up and get a life. Ask Katie Horner how hyping the weather worked for her. Gary will be out the door before long. What will all the LRC gangsters do then? The mets around the country are laughing their asses of at the LRC.”

    PHIL, dougy, salty, muku….multiple personalities….dangerous trolls. No stopping them/him.
    Go read the 2020 blog. Can you imagine what the clients of weather2020 will think if they read that stuff. Embarrassing for Gary and team. If I were Gary I would close comments on that blog to all except paid clients, or regular bloggers who would be willing to pay. Or simply not have a blog at all over there.

    • luvsno

      Well, that is good…..in the time that it took for me to post the above comment all of the 2020 rude comments were removed

    • Chuck

      That upstanding person that he is would probably pay money so he could still troll. That would be extremely sadistic.

  • yewtrees

    The latest 18Z GFS agreed with NAM, no snow for Friday!!!

  • f00dl3

    Latest GFS backs off on the strength of the cold air quite a bit – has Monday morning the coldest morning with lows around -6 and then the rest of the nights closer to 0.

  • f00dl3

    Chances are we won’t get much colder than 0F in the immediate metro Monday morning. KCI always drops colder than the city due to their valley location, so they will probably get to -4F.

    Cold air of this magnitude is rare in March due to the increasing sun angle. With global warming, climate change, whatever they call it now – we probably won’t get to -10F in March again :)

    (Above statement is sarcasm!)

    In reality this has been one of the colder winters recently, and it appears our winters work on 20 year cycles. This 20 year cycle started in 2008/9 – with 2011/12 being a fluke. Our cycle of cold winters will likely last until 2030.

    • Kole Christian

      Foodl3,

      KCI is actually situated on the highest point in Platte County.

    • Chuck

      KCI doesn’t drop lower because they are in a valley. They aren’t in a valley. They drop lower because of the heat island effect. South of the city drops lower than the city for the same reason. KCI usually drops lower than the south side because they are further north.

  • stjoeattorney

    cold depends on the snow

  • dpollard

    Friday’s mini storm looks to be a bust. I allowed the 2″-4″ forecast by the NWS get my hopes up and it is amazing to see the series of downgrades. Next, it will show just drizzle and then poof, nothing but clouds. If the storm on Sunday just dissolves in front of my eyes I will be ready to chalk this season up and be ready to move on to spring. No more teaser storms. I have hung in there emotionally this season pretty well and am thankful for the snow we did get. Cold without snow just isn’t fun. It is like having cake at a birthday party and no ice cream – something is missing! I will anticipate a dusting on Sunday. Somehow it will be disorganized or dysfunctional.

  • Emaw

    I am going to go out on Bill’s proverbial limb here and say that Sunday’s system will be little more than a nuisance and the immediate metro will not drop below zero, just a hunch. I will now take cover . . . .

  • Emaw

    terry,
    Did he say where exactly?

    • terrydsnowy

      Yes he said it for here in the metro area and the end of the news cast!

      • terrydsnowy

        He said a chance of a big winter storm on the weekend. Not making it up. Did here it from him. He just didn’t know how much yet. He said still 3 to 5 day’s out before he can put numbers really on it!

        • batman

          Terry I think you have selective hearing. He didn’t say in the metro. He said a possibility of a couple of inches of snow for next week and the artic blast. I know you want snow more then anyone in the world but you must keep it real.

          • terrydsnowy

            I heard what I heard and you heard what you did. Yes he did say a few to a couple inches for now. He said still 3 to 5 day’s out. To fine tune his forcast and he did say a chance of a big winter storm at the end of 5pm news. I have hearing to. Talk with me about it after the storm Thxs.

  • batman

    I noticed that Friday went from a 70% chance yesterday to 50% tonight. Looks like Friday is going, going, gone.

  • Dobber

    the furry animal channel is saying Sunday is looking more “bullish” on the snow.

    • This channel is thinking that way too! Now, let’s see what the new data trends into tonight. I have a few concerns, but it is targeting us, and it is the storm that already produced 2-4 inches in the last cycle.

      Gary

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    latest GFS snow map!

  • Emaw

    Nws has a 30% chance of a mix for Friday with a high around 40, quite different than a day or two ago when they were talking accumulations of snow. For Sunday they’re already throwing numbers around like 3-5, kiss of death for snow lovers! Wonder what their forecast for Sunday will look like on Friday?

  • Farmgirl

    What I would like to know is if Sunday is going to be a significant icing event before it switches to snow. Looks like I may have to cover up the heat pump and switch to outrageously high emergency strip heat until the precip ends.

    The last storm of freezing drizzle/rain incased on side of the unit and it had a heck of a time defrosting. Took two weeks to get rid of the ice build up on the outer coils.

    The below temps for next week are really freaking me out too. Already had several horse colics the past three weeks.

  • Kole Christian

    Remember that time Gary said one inch to possibly a lot more. I’m hoping that we get that prediction again! Last time he said that we got what the GFS is calling for right now.

  • stjoeattorney

    NAM is the MAN this year it is 105 hrs out by this time Thursday we should be getting a read on the NAM.

    • Kcchamps

      should get a good sampling by tomorrow mornings run

      • Everyone, hang on, like I often say. This Friday and this weekend set-up are quite unusual. There is nothing classic about these two systems. We have a tough forecast ahead of us. The NAM just came out with no snow anywhere, only sleet. But, of course this is just the NAM three days before the storm.

        I will be working on some new graphics at 10 PM. I would like to thank everyone for participating in today’s blog in such a positive way.

  • winterfreak

    The NAM is horrible for everyone. No snow in sight.

    • terrydsnowy

      We all know that will change and snow will come in play. Show’s just sleet not buying it just one model run.

  • Dobber

    Gary, the blog deserves an update.

  • Dobber

    I wonder if MT didn’t just set the bar on a forecast. For Sunday . “You will shovel”.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022700&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=096″

    oh my……

    latest GFS snow forecast map! A lot of snow metro and north

    • lovethatdog

      I have a question that may be silly. Is Lenexa in that reddish zone or is it more in the blue.I am geographically challenged even in my own city

  • Alex Pickman

    0z GFS = WOW!!!! :)

  • Alex Pickman

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022700&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=105″

  • winterfreak

    Just need it to shift a tad south and we’ll all be in good shape.

  • RickMckc

    Wow – that’s a brutal forecast G-man just put up.

  • Dobber

    Mike said shovels…. You said we will see what it looks tomorrow… I know the grammar is bad .

  • RickMckc

    One thing I noticed on the GFS (very bullish for snow-lovers) is how there is also a very strong precip shield to our south.

    Look here:
    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022700&time=48&var=APCPI&hour=096″

    In the past, we have had more than a few potentially big snowstorms under-perform when moisture to the south got going like in that forecast.

    Just a thought.

  • Dobber

    Rick , do you think we will need a shovel?

  • Alex Pickman

    I work at Lowes up here in St. Joe, and I am really now looking forward to the customers looking wood pellets, space heaters, ice melt, and snow throwers, because we are OUT and set for SPRING lol.

  • Kole Christian

    Rick,

    Are you seeing a storm south of us at the same time like around Arkansas, if so then you’re probably right. That would certainly make this an underperformer. Dry slot would come in and we’d get about half of what would be expected.

  • Kole Christian

    Of course half of what the GFS is calling for still gives me over a half a foot of snow.

  • Kcchamps

    holy crap!

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=099″

    latest GFS SLAMS the metro with 16-20″ of SNOW :o

    • d100patel

      Yea I saw the same thing,would be crazy to get 16+”, though the GFS and NAM have put the Friday storm way to our south. Also a little skeptical of GFS, I know NAM has been the go to model this season. I hope NAM comes to agreement with GFS.

    • kellyinkc

      hoo boy!!! if that verifies!! :)

  • d100patel

    Something interesting with the NAM…it has the big area of precip right over KC just like the GFS going 84 hours out. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022706&time=24&var=APCPI&hour=084 … but when you look at that in terms of snowfall it only shows up as 2 or 3 inches. Seems like its not getting the temps right that day, with it being so cold, ratios should be pretty high up there.

  • craigmac

    Even the NWS Pleasant Hill gives us nothing on Friday, now.
    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

    They went from 2 to 4″ to zero.

    It is not looking like the Saturday night/Sunday storm is going to go that.