Good very early morning bloggers,
Wow, a lot of you are still awake. I did get around an hour of sleep.
If you have been watching the developments, then you are likely pretty excited about this storm now. It is doing what we thought would happen and it has gone through a transition into a strengthening upper level system. The track is perfect, temperatures are falling, and we are about to have a rather significant storm. This surface map below is just something that I keep looking at in amazement. The strengthening surface low has such a well defined circulation center just to our southeast. Look at the cold air now blasting southeast into the system. This storm is becoming so dynamic right now:
I will write up a more significant blog by 5 AM. In the mean time let us know what you are experiencing.
Gary
It’s snowing in st jo. We have a dusting already! The radar looks very exciting
Sleeting In Olathe. Chance of Thunder Snow Gary?
Yes, there is a chance of thundersnow. This is increasing so nicely.
Same Snow totals?
Just cold light rain so far with increasing north wind, but will likely start sleeting here in KC North within the half hour.
Still snowing NW of Tongie. Wind is really blowing. And I think I just heard a rumble of thunder….
Around Zona Rosa we just had a pretty good round of rhunder-sleet that has tapered off now. Winds died down pretty significantly when the sleet started, starting to pick back up a bit though.
*thunder
Sleet on my deck: “http://puu.sh/1D3nb”
good work Gary. gonna hit this one out of the park compared to that dusting forecast from the others
Gary, what are your thoughts on the latest NAM and RAP model?? it is forecasting 4-6″ and the NAM is 6+”
It is doing what I thought it would do. Now, how much will it produce. The NAM did produce over six tenths of an inch liquid. The circulation of the storm is intensifying. Let’s just see how it comes together. It is right on our time-line.
Thundersleet near I-29 and Barry Road. Already a “dusting” of sleet if you want to call it that. And it looks like muuuuch more is to come. Here weeee gooooo
a HEAVY band of sleet or snow is about to push through where i live in Independence!
I just heard a rumble of thunder!
Hey Gary,
Dusting of sleet/snow her in St. Joe. Wind is really picking up too. Shakes the house when it gusts! This storm has really impressed me, and looks like it just may be the turning point to getting out of this dry boring pattern, and get us in the right direction to eliminating the drought. I sure hope so!
Snow & Sleet!
Wondering what NWS Pleasant Hill thinks of all this and whether they are contemplating extending the WSW farther to the southeast of the current setup.
Thunder snow in Olathe
Noise of little ice pellets hitting the window here at 87th & Renner, went to the car not slick yet. Winds are starting to howl though.
Maybe I’ll do a road update when I get in the office in about an hour.
H.
I should go knock on their door and ask seds lol im literally like 2 mins away!
Light rain/sleet mix at 2:50 in KC North just S of Gladstone. Heavier convective sleet on radar to my southwest that should arrive in about 30 minutes.
Mostly switched over to sleet now in Indep.
Just woke up to some ridiculously heavy sleet… it was one of the the loudest things I’ve heard inside my house and coated the ground with a heavy dusting in about three minutes.
Had some thunder too, so I can say I experienced thunder sleet before thundersnow.
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_12HR.gif”
latest NAM snow map,
well this is interesting
is the map legit kcchamps, if so i knew this would happen.
Yes. I don’t want to succumb to modelitis, but interesting how it places an 8″ accum. near downtown KC as well as retaining the 8″ bullseye around Cameron that the RAP showed.
Cool, my earlier forecast for lansing was 6in. Any extra is a bonus.
Thundersnow in Lansing KS(woke me up),snow is coming down at a rediculous clip. Winds are howling.
Thunder and the temp has dropped about 2 degrees in the last 30 minutes or so here is eastern Independence, MO. It’s good to be back on the blog but what am I doing up this early?
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_12HR.gif”
here is the NAM snow map at a 10to1 snow ratio
Looks a little more realistic, imho. What made the two maps different?
The snow ratio, if the temp drop quickly enough it should end up being slightly higher then if it is averaged out.
Wow!
damn!
Still, that’s about 6-8″ of snow. Let’s hope so.
It has now switched completely over to snow here near Zona Rosa.
Just when I thought mother nature couldn’t do anything more stubborn, she goes and does something like this…andd totally redeems herself lol. this is great we diffidently need this. One storm at a time to get us outta this drought.
Just glad im in KC for the holidays and not Columbia MO
The band of snow towards Topeka and Manhattan looks like it is getting stronger!
The back edge of the storm is STILL expanding, this storm is becoming a beast. What will the stations say when they wake up to find 6+in on the ground?
Dusting of Snow and Sleet on the side streets in Olathe
The ground is completely covered now, snow getting heavier and wind increasing tremendously. Gonna try and sleep now, 6am comes soon!
I also can report the heavy thunder sleet in Independence about 30 minutes ago. Now it mostly a light snow in a very brisk NE wind. Too bad I am done working for the night and I have to head off to sleep.
Enjoy everyone!
Temps are staying warmer longer than I thought they would. Still 33 in Topeka and St. Joe, 34 at KCI and 36 in downtown KC, though dropping about 1 degree per hour. Interesting the wind in Topeka now gusting to 45 mph.
Probably doesn’t matter that much, what’s fallen so far isn’t really melting.
Could lower the snow/liquid ratio, meaning less snowfall accumulation.
Snow starting to pick up here in Lawrence with some accumulation starting to occur on driveway and street.
90th and n oak trafficway its not doing anything.
We’re in a precipitation hole at present, but sleet/snow is progressing toward us from the southwest. Leading edge in KCK and downtown KCMO.
This is taking tooo long lol.
you dont think maybe drier air is over us in the northland
Snowing increasing by JoCo Executive, visibility probably about half a mile.
Yeah its done jack squat here in the heart of KC so far.
Trust me, it’s right on your doorstep.
Nothing is happening here on Lee’s Summit KC border…
Just checked Topeka radar and there is a raging band of snow west of Topeka. That is the main show. What we’re getting now is just the appetizer.
Weatherfreaker,
It is coming. It really just started snowing not too long ago. Keep watching it will be any time.
Snow seems to be picking up a bit here near, was just flurries after an initial short burst right after the thundersleet.
Oops, hat’s Near Zona Rosa/I-29 & Barry
it is snowing here in Independence and the streets are covered
You were right Jayhawkie! I just looked out again and we have heavy snow falling here in Lee’s Summit by Unity Village! Winds picked up suddenly too!
nothing at 90th and n. oak trafficway
Yep, same here. Let it snow!
“http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2012122007&plot_type=acsnw_t2sfc&fcst=09&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t2&adtfn=1″
latest RAP snow forecast
First snowflakes beginning to fall at my location in KC North.
there is no way this produces 6-8 inches of snow maybe 3 if we are lucky
How much snow are we looking at now?
New blog
1 in of snow on ground in lansing kansas