Rainfall Totals & New Data On The Weekend

Good evening bloggers,

Who can believe this? We actually had wide spread and beneficial rainfall amounts. Here are some of the totals as of 3:40 PM:


This storm is moving away, but it brought us a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms including a very heavy band around noon that dumped nearly quarter sized hail in parts of the metro area.

Looking ahead to the weekend here is a map we are showing on tonight’s weathercasts:


A strong storm system is heading towards California right now, and this will begin moving out into the plains…..


Dry air will likely surge out into central Kansas. How far east will it get, and there are other questions????



We will discuss this on 41 Action News, and in tomorrow’s blog.  How much rain did you get?


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  1. I assume the Olathe total is from the east side of the city at the Executive Airport? I’m sure my side of Olathe was closer to that Lawrence/KCI total if so.

  2. I think this rain may have filled up the fountains at the K enough to turn the fountains back on…..and enough rain went into the Missouri river today to allow us to flush toilets all over KC..

    • Yes, the drought mongerer ( aka me ) will be silenced for a time. I still need more, my new pond only has 2′ in it and I need about 4′ more feet if I want to get any fish stocked this year. And the fish people will be in town on May 10th , so I really need it to fill up soon!! That will be pushing it if it gets really dry later this summer, I really need at least 8′-10′ to be comfortable but I like to live dangerously I guess. I would love to see it at full pool, so bring on some hard rains and I might be in business. I found a place that stocks WIPERS, so I will be having some fun about 4-5 years. FISH ON!

      • Wipers are fun in a pond..one of our family friends stocked them in his pond and let me tell you i thought i hooked into a whopper bass then realized i caught one of the wipers

        • You are right on the money!. You will think you have a 5-7 lb.bass, and when you get it to shore its only 3 lbs. wiper. Call Raccoon Fisheries in Pleasant Valley Mo and they will take good care of you. They also have other exotic species for the area, Northern Pike and Walleye! Be careful though, they are toothy critters and your pond will get eaten up quick without good baitfish populations

  3. I think the question here now is yes severe storms are a given, but where is the highest likely hood for a tornado outbreak? Sigtor values Sunday at 6 PM per the 18z NAM are only progged to be 0.5 to 1.5 around the metro area. According to the data, highest chance for violent, long track tornadoes would be in the deep south. That being said, sigtor values do peak out near 3 here around the Noon – 3 PM timeframe – so we will have to watch out for any activity that can break the cap left by Saturday night’s/Sunday morning’s activity.

    Noon SUN – Our sigtor values are 3-4 here. Our highest tornado window.

    3 PM SUN – Our sigtor values are 2-3 here. All the warm sector is 1-3 with a spot near 4 near south central LA.

    6 PM SUN – Our sigtor values are 1-2 here. 4-6 Arkansas/Texas.

    9 PM SUN – Sigtor values less than 1 here. Near 9 near Texarkana!

  4. FOODl3 – please explain this is layman’s terms, we are not all so jargon savvy. SIGTOR? I only assume this is shear value, representing where the best changing of wind direction in altitude is present? I saw my Joplin outlet( those folks don’t kid around with Tornado threats trust me)are not very concerned with this setup as a tornadic one for our area. Very large hail and damaging winds are their preliminary threats from this weekend system, there is just not enough change in wind direction right here from early modeling to create conditions for a true Tornado OUTBREAK. We should all be very happy about that, tornados although interesting as can be, destroy peoples lives and entire communities can be gobbled up. Keep the tornado drought alive!!!

  5. per the SPC . . . A multiple component index that is meant to highlight the co-existence of ingredients favoring right-moving supercells capable of producing F2-F5 tornadoes.

    Also those things are hardly ever accurate this far out. The NAM went from little instability to strong/near extreme instability for Sunday. One thing I can say is that I’m not sure tornadoes are out of the question. Although I’d say a derecho event seems more likely.

  6. I was critical of the last miss, so now I am saying, great forecast yesterday, Gary.
    Please note the significantly lower rainfall at KCI than the surrounding area. This has happened multiple times this year.
    My location is no where near 25″ down for 3 years.

    • And yet just down the road a piece, Lawrence is down over 30″ just for the last 2 years. (20″+ in ’12 & 10″+ in ’13) YadaX3. :-)

  7. We haven’t had a good old fashioned Derecho in a long time…those can nearly as destructive as tornados if they are intense enough because of the enormous area they can afflict. I think two years ago a Derecho rolled out of the high plains and marched across the 2/3 of country in about a 12 hour time frame.. literally from Western Iowa all the way to the eastern seaboard and knocked out power to 10,000 of thousands for many days and even weeks in some remote areas because they were fixing a damaged areas 150 miles wide and 600 miles long. Reminds of a super cell the weather channel tracked from around Columbia, MO all the way to the Virginias over the course of a 24 hr. period. Crazy how long they can sustain themselves when the conditions are perfect

    • I recall this very well I was shocked at the longevity of that system I actually warned my East coast relates to keep an eye to the sky!!

  8. 1.58″ of rain in KC North today! Been a long time since we’ve had a rain of this size.

    • It is odd how MCI missed out again I think they need to move their rain gauge… although prelim Radar indicated totals do have Airport totals on the low side crazy stuff

  9. I love the folks that say what drought because of one rainfall. These are the some folks that say what climate change it was cold as heck this past winter. Let’s see where we are in July-August. Things are always green in early spring.

    I’m sticking to my thoughts about Sunday, south of us will be the show. It’s complicated and unique so lets see what the data shows the next couple of days.

    • And things are usually brown in august lol..but i agree with you..this weekend is gonna be complicated

  10. The above map has Lawrence at .96″ … and I clearly had a couple hairs over 1.9″ (as did my neighbor) in NW Lawrence…making me STILL think the Lawrence airport rain gauge is under a tree.

    • I agree with you j-ox..the lawrence airport totals are always way off..makes me think the person checking the gauge is standing there watching it fill while holding an umbrella over it

  11. lets see how many times the models will change, but of course the climate change models are infallible .

  12. 1.75″ in north Olathe, first time the sump pump has kicked on in I don’t know how long.

  13. 1.8 inches here in Easton, KS. Hopefully another 2 inches on Sunday!! Gary, can you narrow down the time frame for rain on Saturday a.m???

  14. I ended up with 1.3″ in my gauge for the day in north Raymore, yeah!
    Glad to read that others had some nice rains, too.

  15. Latest GFS gives us snow Thursday morning. 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM Monday look like a very hard forecast right now. I can’t even tell what the GFS is saying to be fully honest. I think the models may not even have a good handle on until tomorrow night.

  16. Gary – I think it is worth noting that Late Saturday evening may well be our highest severe weather risk in terms of tornadic activity. Sunday we may be too stable due to cloud debris from overnight and early morning convection, as well as storms firing on/off all day Sunday

    • I don’t believe that is a correct assessment. The dryline, as of right now, is expected to be west of I-135 in KS on Saturday. So convection should dissipate. Furthermore, the convection will be rather limited Saturday due to a strong cap. Once again, this is based off of today’s model runs. Let’s wait for the storm to get on shore tomorrow.

  17. Just over 2 and a quarter inches here at the Ikea plant in Merriam KS. The Rain really came down to fast here at least in my books, and in turn we lost a bunch to run off. The storm drains quickly plugged up and the basement flooded with some minor material damage. Sunday’s setup will all depend on amount of sunlight during the morning hours and snow next week is an abnomily outlier at best

    • I agree…snow this late in the season two years in a row? Just downright improbable….but not impossible!

  18. Be thankful KC for your rain. I really feel for those in the Texas panhandle and western Kansas. Wichita has only had 1.98 inches of rain and melted snow this year. Although not as bad as this time last year, precipitation deficits are approaching 5+ inches in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The long term models suggest more windy, dry weather the next 2 weeks.

  19. Looking forward to today’s blog this was a vigorous system when it cycled through here around 55 days ago!!

  20. NAM is showing a really weak system in Eastern Kansas, but, when it goes into Missouri, the system ramps up. GFS is showing a way powerful system, but has this for Northern Missouri, and is also starting to weaken the storm. As we also know, this winter, GFS had a history of being aggressive with totals.

    • Some early projected precipitation totals over the Eastern part of the Mighty Mo are coming in way over 6 inches of rain with a Bulls-Eye near Southern Illinois!!!

  21. The computed SIGTOR values can be looked at as a more scientific approach to the problem that The Weather Channel attempts to poke fun at with their TORCON values.

    06z NAM has our SIGTOR values between 2 and 3 from 3 to 6 PM Sunday. Also has SIGTOR values in excess of 10 near Texarkana. If I were to chase on Sunday, I’d head to Arkansas and the extreme northeast tip of Texas.

    • 30%? That means Isolated tornadoes. Excess means higher chance of particularly strong Tornadoes. Where did you find this?

      • 12z NAM shows the same – actually NAM has been pretty solid saying 2-3 for SIGTOR values as far back as I can remember for Sunday.


        First tornado window – Valid 9 AM Sunday.


        Second tornado window – Valid 3 PM Sunday.

        We have 2 windows. First, early Sunday morning. SIGTOR values from 2-4 around 9 AM on Sunday. Then again they peak 2-3 between 1:30 PM SUN – 4 PM SUN. By 6 PM we are out of the woods as the highest shear shifts to Sedalia and points east.

        Weather.Cod.Edu has a lot of useful maps. :) I love that site.

      • Theirs no 5 yet for area but 4. 5 is 50 percent chance of seeing a Tornado. Also MD out for parts of Texas and so,on. Still have rest of today’s Model runs and part of Tomorrow.

        • It’s TWC though, so take it with a grain of salt.

          Models and SPC clearly show the highest chance for violent, long track tornadoes is over the AR/LA/TX region. We are on the northern edge of any supportive shear, and marginal EHI index. Our main risks will be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

          Funny TWC says Northeast TX is only 3 when all computer models have argued the opposite for 36+ hours now.

      • I’m not sure I seen it this morning on TWC that they was say this morning was show this morning a torcon 5 for this area for the eastern Kansas and all of Missouri. I’ve seen is higher than that before. scale goes from 1 to 10.

  22. It does seem strange that the blog hasn’t been updated with all the talk of such a big severe weather possibility approaching.

  23. Any new blog coming? We would like to know the forecast for this weekends potentially nasty storms.

    Is it going to rain during the Trolley Run?

  24. I’d argue that a derecho might be more dangerous and destructive than most tornadoes. We also probably know less about them than tornadoes because they are extremely rare.

  25. “Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of a tornado, the damage typically occurs in one direction along a relatively straight path. As a result, the term “straight-line wind damage” sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the swath of wind damage extends for more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers), includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) along most of its length, and several, well-separated 75 mph (121 km/h) or greater gusts, then the event may be classified as a derecho.”

    240 miles wide!!!

    • “…unlike many other significant weather events of any type, progressive derechos may arise in relatively benign large-scale environments, with little or no identifiable atmospheric forcing.”

  26. It’s a really complex situation because we will have moderate to strong instability but weak to moderate shear. Supercells will be the main storm mode, but the “spin” usually required for a tornado outbreak will be harder to come by. To top that off, numerous rounds of thunderstorms will keep the sky filled with clouds on/off all day. There are hints that the dryline may try to fire just to our west around 6 PM Sunday, but we may only have an hour of clearing before that happens from the mid-day storms, which may or may not have any clearing after the mid morning storms, which may or may not have any instability to work with after the late Saturday evening to early Sunday morning storms. Models right now are saying we won’t become capped at all – which means there is nothing to stop thunderstorms from firing up on/off all day, which means there is nothing to focus all the energy on one trigger.

  27. Sun angle too high for snow. Sun angle not high enough to provide severe weather. Which is it guys?

  28. Think maybe Gary partied too long last night for his birthday-we are overdue for a new blog please

  29. He posted a red light. I don’t remember the last time he did that. Anyone know? Should be interesting.

    Fun fact: Last tornado in Leavenworth Ks was April 25, 2009, exactly 5 years from today.

  30. I think Gary is just waiting for the noon data to roll in so he can have the most current data. New blog will be out by early PM after the 18Z run or whatever the noon model update is called? I’m showing my weather ignorance here….

    • 18z data actually rolls in around 1 PM or so – there is generally about an hour delay for the NAM and a 2-3 hour delay for the GFS.

      Right now I don’t blame him for not posting anything :) Complex.

  31. But I won’t say unusual/unique. It is actually more usual for these types of setups to be very complex with many variables (instability, capping, shear, cloud cover, etc) not yet determined until the day of the event than it is for it to be clear cut and know what exactly is going to happen several days out.

  32. Whatever happens Sunday, I highly doubt KC will get the worst of what this storm dishes out. The expected lack of a cap locally on Sunday means a better chance of widespread, significant rainfall and less worry about very severe storms with very large hail or violent tornadoes here. If I lived in eastern OK or Arkansas I would be concerned, however.