That’s how one blogger put it, as t-storms fire around the metro last night, and this is all we get:
Just .15″ at KCI with most people nothing/less.
Some isolated spots, like Leavenworth, received more…but this will not change things, severe drought conditions are taking control of the area.
We’ll have to wait nearly a week for our next real chance for t-storms. There is indication cooler air could arrive in around a week as well.
Is the heat getting old? It’ll be with
us all week, but less severe than Wed-Sat were.
The first 850 mb map is the initialized GFS (GFS forecast at time=0) yesterday at the end of the afternoon.
850 mb can be considered a level of the atmosphere that usually corresponds with a height just under 5000 above sea level.
A temperature plot at this height can be beneficial in predicting the warm or cold air advecting into an area. The reason: at this level, it will not show the daily warming/cooling/warming pattern isolating the warm air moving in from the daily warm-ups.
This is helpful in showing how much hotter a future day will be from a day that’s already happened…it’s one of the first rules of forecasting!
The plot at the right shows the 850mb temperature yesterday at 24 degrees Celcius. This corresponded with a high temperatures of 101 degrees at KCI.
The next map shows a forecast for temperatures at 850 mb for next Sunday, one week from today.
In this plot, the temperatures have cooled to 18 degrees celcius.
From these two plots alone, one could roughly assume that next Sunday, would then have the potential to be 24-18=6 degrees Celcius cooler than yesterday’s high of 101 degrees Fahrenheit.
6 degrees Celcius = (squiggly equals) = 11 degrees Fahrenheit. So if this cooler air is in fact able to push in by next Sunday, it could mean a cool-down to near 90 degrees. I believe it could be even cooler next Monday, especially if we see any rain in the Sat/Sun/Mon time frame.
I have cool hopes, but I still like the heat. Stay safe!
-GW
Yes it is cruel. I thought for sure we would get a shower.
This is a interesting read on the event out east.
“http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/”
They called it a Derecho
Derecho – spanish for “straight ahead” … which is where the term comes from… continuous straight line severe t-storm wind within an mcs, usually a bow echo, spanning over a distance 240 miles or more. You can find some interesting case studies from derechos in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
-gw
actually Derecho means right in spanish,, izquierda is left… stick to fake guessing the forecast and not trusting wikipedia for your spanish
i guess it can bean straight ahead, if used as an adverb,, my other point is still valid..
More on it:
“http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm”