Good morning bloggers,

A storm system is spinning into Kansas this morning.  The amount of rain that ended up being produced by this storm system is really what I was expecting to happen. The models had much higher amounts at times as this storm system approached our area, but when it came down to producing yesterday this storm pretty much failed near the Kansas City region. Yes, there were amounts approaching an inch in a few spots, but there were many that had less than 0.20″ of rain (Overland Park 0.15″, The Plaza 0.18″.  KCI Airport had 0.75″ in less than 30 minutes yesterday afternoon as a band of thunderstorms moved by very quickly, but that was the only rain from this storm. An entire 30 minutes worth as last night only had sprinkles.

This satellite picture above is NOT from today. This satellite picture above is from the “non ice” ice storm from January 16th or two cycles ago.  I will post this mornings water vapor satellite picture below in a few minutes.

Over at Weather2020 we have been sharing and showcasing the cycling pattern in the 56 to 61 day range. Incredibly, this storm is right on schedule.

Here was my analysis of what happened with the “non ice” ice storm from 115 days ago:

“NON ICE” ICE STORM from the January 16th blog:

Kansas City’s Precipitation Amounts From This Storm:

  • Friday: Dry all day as was in the forecast
  • Friday night: 0.10″ in less than an hour. This band of freezing rain showers caused the worst icing from the entire storm. It was 27° as this heaviest band of freezing rain of the entire event passed through
  • Saturday: Dry all day as was in the forecast
  • Saturday night:  Dry until 2 AM when 0.02″ fell. This produced only a glazing of ice
  • Sunday morning:  0.07″ fell as temperatures hovered near 32° and the glazing of ice continued. There was .10″ to .25″ of ice accumulation two to three counties to the south, but then it melted by 9 AM Sunday
  • Sunday afternoon: 0.07” of light rain with temperatures just above 32°
  • Sunday night:  0.46″ with temperatures rising to 36
  • Monday morning:  The dry slot is arriving! A few rain showers are rotating around the upper low and temperatures are continuing their rise as we approach 50 degrees today

This is a total of 0.72″.  0.02″ fell during the main Ice Storm Warning, and if you want to add in the 0.07″ that fell after it reached 32° on Sunday morning, this is still a total of 0.09″. This is where the lack of ice accumulation came from. The amount of precipitation forecast and modeled by every computer model was never less than around 0.15″. There were a few models that started trending towards these lower numbers. We ended up with about as low of an amount from this storm that I would ever have expected. And, when the main storm came out this morning, Kansas City again ended up with lower amounts than any model had predicted. So, I am calling this another KC miss. In January, this is still a lot of precipitation for a storm. It just could have been a bit more.

I could write a similar statement from this current version.  I put the text from that blog in Italic Text so you can tell the difference from that blog to this blog.  Let’s look at this storm once again from how it looked as it was coming into California:

And, here is just two to three days later in each cycle:

When I posted this yesterday and tweeted this comparison out, many people saw something else as you can imagine.  My peers have always had a hard time finding what we have with the cycling pattern as described by the LRC. I will be sharing my hypothesis at a conference next month and this will certainly be part of the discussion and showcased in the paper we are submitting for peer review.  The storm now is moving into Kansas just like it did in LRC Cycle 2.  After it moved into Kansas it rapidly fell apart in January, and this is what will happen during the next 24 hours right on schedule again.

So, we should not be surprised at how this storm did not quite come together for the Kansas City region.  It was really what I was expecting and it was a very tough forecast when using the guidance from the computer models that had forecast amounts of over 3″ in spots.

The rain is now shutting off for around the next seven days.  We forecasted a drier first half of May which is verifying, and we forecasted a wet last third of May. This forecast was made a couple of weeks ago and so far everything has happened right on that LRC calendar!

Have a great Thursday Night!

Gary