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Rain Today, Then A Taste of Winter Later This Week

Good morning bloggers,

What am I writing about today?  Are you serious?  I am actually still writing about a chance of snow this week and a winter blast of cold?  Yes, I am, and it is far from etched in stone on what is going to happen.  Before we get to our chance of any snow later this week, there is a disturbance moving across this morning.  Jeff Penner discussed how we had three systems to track, a couple days ago. Last year Kansas City would swing and miss at storm one, swing and miss at storm two, and then swing and miss on storm #3 and we would strike out. This happened many times in the 2017-2018 LRC.  Well, something very different has already happened and multiple times.  Earlier in October, when this pattern began, we didn’t just not swing and miss, we hit a grand slam home run with 10 to 15 inches of rain in the area. Then, we seemed to struggle to get our next storm to produce, and yet, right before our eyes  they have been producing on some positive level.  We did receive a little bit of rain over the weekend from storm #1, and here is storm #2 today below, with potential storm #3 due in Thursday.

Radar as of 7 AM:

RAD_KTWX_N0R

There is a disturbance near Salina, KS and it is heading in this morning. It is producing this nice area of rain.  So, get the raincoats out this morning, and the umbrellas ready. This will move through and then move east of the area this afternoon. Our attention will then shift to this:

1

On this map, above, there is a ridge (the squiggly blue line I drew in). This ridge is a high amplitude ridge extending up to near the North Pole. There is also a wave of energy near Vancouver, Canada that we are monitoring closely.  If this wave of energy combines with new energy being generated around that big upper low over Canada, as it swings south, then conditions will become favorable for a cold precipitation event on Thursday afternoon and evening.

2

By noon Thursday, above, you can see this wave of energy looking decent as Kansas City goes into southwest flow aloft.  In the past few years this would end up weaker and more phased into the flow, and the cold air would take over and we would get no snow in KC.  So, it is something to continue monitoring.  However, the way this 2018-2019 LRC has been setting up, this type of wave has been strengthening a bit as it approaches the KS/MO border, so this means I lean towards the precipitation event happening on Thursday. There will be other questions that need to be answered if this continues to show up, such as timing, possible amounts, and possible impacts?

3

The FV3-GFS model shows this result valid at 6 PM Thursday. The Euro and other models are coming into line with this as well.  We still need to monitor the trends on the models today and by tomorrow as within 24 hours our confidence will grow just a bit on what may happen. Remember, the sun sets now closer to 5 PM, so if this map above is at all accurate, then the snow may be falling after sunset which provides a better chance of snowfall accumulation.   This map below shows one potential snowfall map, that seems to make sense, of 1 to 2 inches near KC.  This would be an incredible development for November in KC.

4

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of rain this morning. Cloudy and cool with rain ending this afternoon.  0.10″ to 0.50″ possible today.  High:  50°
  • Tonight:  Clearing and cold. Low:  37°
  • Tuesday:  Sunny, then increasing clouds with a 50% chance of a few showers late.  High:  57°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and colder. High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Becoming cloudy with a 70% chance of a mixture of precipitation, changing to snow.  Some accumulation is possible during the early evening.  High:  37°

How about those KC Chiefs! They are now 8-1, and we have New England and the Chargers on our heals.  Big weeks ahead!  Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation: Weather2020 Blog

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

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