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Rain & severe weather risk for late Wednesday

9AM Update
I will likely start a new blog entry later today, but I quickly wanted to update this post one more time. As of this morning, the SPC is still holding back on their Slight Risk (they have not reissued it). Latest look at the RPM & HRRR models from this morning indicate we’re on track to see development of thunderstorms around 2p this afternoon.
Models
My concerns would be for very heavy rain in some areas, plus there will probably be a storm or two that gets a little stronger than the others. Winds near 50mph would not surprise me and some small, pea to dime size hail would be possible too. We will continue to track  all of this and provide updates as need. A reminder: if you do NOT see us on TV for special updates, it means the storms are not hitting the severe criteria set by the NWS. It may sound loud and look threatening if/when a storm is over your house, but if it’s not meeting the criteria for a severe storm (hail over 1″ in diameter, winds over 58mph), then we won’t be breaking into programming. Of course, I will provide updates on Twitter as needed and we’ll be on air for our regular newscasts starting at 4p this afternoon. Stay weather aware today!

1AM Update
In their 1am update, the SPC has now dropped the Slight Risk area for Wednesday. To be honest, I’m a little surprised by this. However, I hope it does not become a similar situation like a couple weeks ago where it was dropped, added, dropped, then added again.

No matter what, there is still a chance we’ll see some stronger storms and heavy rain in the area. The fresh models started crunching equations at midnight. Kalee will be able to look at that info and provide an update in the morning hours. Then the next big chunk of info will begin processing at 7am. The full suite won’t be available until around noon, but that’s the model run I’ll be most interested in seeing. And remember, should we get socked in with clouds all day, that may be all she wrote and we could end up with nothing but rain. … Doesn’t that sound nice?!

For those curious, the hourly HRRR model is now able to see out to 1pm Wednesday. This is what is claims the radar will look like:
image

The trend appears to be an East to Northeast movement of that line as it starts to develop around lunchtime.

As always, our team will track this & keep you posted. I’ll be back on air starting at 4p Wednesday. Here’s to hoping for non-severe weather and widespread rain.

9PM Update

Just wanted to give you the latest information. This is how the newest RPM model depicts tomorrow afternoon:
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This is what the latest version of the NAM is showing at about 4p tomorrow:
NAM

So the subtle trend I am seeing is to develop storms in the mid afternoon. However, our in-house Microcast forecast models are still holding off anything “big” until after 10pm and keeping it going overnight into Thursday. I am a little suspicious of that.
I think tomorrow will wind up being a day where sunshine plays a huge role. The areas that see sun and the amount of time the sun is out, will be key. The sun will add instability to the atmosphere and lead to storm formation. This is something I will track closely tomorrow. I will be in the office early and keep close eyes on this all day. We’ll update as conditions dictate.

As mentioned prior, severe weather is fickle and nobody has the skill to target a specific area that will be impacted. You’d have an easier time nailing jello to the wall. All we can do is monitor and push out the new information. My advice: stay weather aware tomorrow. Most of the viewing area, in my opinion, has a shot of seeing a strong to severe storm. …That said, as always, there will be SOMEONE, somewhere that doesn’t get the rain they want/need. It always happens.

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We’ve been targeting the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe for a while now. This looks to be the best window for rain and thunderstorms in the area. It also brings the chance for severe weather to the area. Already the storm prediction center (SPC) has us in a “Slight Risk” for late tomorrow.
1 PM

Given the heat that we’ll have, my biggest concern would be strong winds from the storms as they start to collapse. Hail around nickel to quarter size is also possible.
Our 3p version of Powercast shows how the radar may look tomorrow night at 9p:
3 PM

Again, this is just a computer prediction and it subject to change. You shouldn’t look at this and say it will not storm in Topeka or that it WILL storm in Liberty. It’s possible things shift a little more North and East. Given the flow of the atmosphere right now, plus the general nature of thunderstorms, it’s difficult to say with great certainty which areas will and won’t get hit. NOBODY can pinpoint where a severe thunderstorm will form. It’s possible that Liberty gets a severe storm and Ottawa doesn’t see a drop of rain. It’s possible the exact opposite happens. But there is not a human walking this planet that can precisely narrow in on where a severe t-storm will form.

That said, we *will* likely have severe weather in the viewing area. So here is what I see in the threat breakdown for the storms that do develop.
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You can never say never when it comes to tornadoes in this part of the world, but I would put the risk pretty low for tomorrow.

I did some digging into the first five days of August this year versus last year. I was a little surprised.
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It was a wet & cool start to the month last year. So far this year, it’s been drier and hotter. This despite the fact that, overall, we’re doing better on moisture than we were last year. And look at that 74° day last year. I don’t think it will be that cool, but if the clouds & rain can hold over us Thursday, we should get a small break in the heat.

Those making plans to attend the Missouri State Fair in Sedalia Thursday, it may be a soggy start to the festivities this year.
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I am expecting there to be a break in the rain Thursday afternoon, but right now I’m not confident in that due to the uncertainty in the overall forecast. As always, we will continue to sift through the latest information and update the forecast as needed. We’re all in this together!

-JD

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