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Rain Moves Right Back Into The Forecast

Good evening bloggers,

Today was only the fourth day this month without any rain falling at KCI Airport. Yes, 23 out of the first 27 days of the month have had at least a trace of rain. KCI Airport will likely go over 10 inches with a decent chance at getting close to 11 inches of rain this month. Kansas City, KS has already had over 11 inches of rain this month. Here are the totals as of Wednesday night:

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There is a rather strong late May cold front approaching:

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This front will likely move through Friday night, and it may leave low clouds behind for a cloudy, breezy, and possibly drizzly Saturday.  It has rained every weekend since late March, and just when it looked like it may be a nice weekend, I am not so sure at the moment. I have added in drizzle, with a chance of some measurable rain with a cloudy day in the 60s Saturday. This would also be about the same forecast for the area lakes this weekend as well.

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Rainfall amounts will likely end up between 1/2″ and 1″ by Saturday morning.

It has been raining way, way, way too much in Texas with disastrous floods ongoing down there. Some horrible stories of people being killed by the flash flooding. Flood fatalities will likely far exceed tornado deaths this year. This is often the case anyway, but this has been bad. And more rain is likely in the next couple of weeks. Later next week is the wet storm part of the cycling weather pattern. I am confident in another 2 to 4 inches of rain in our area later next week. Take a look at the Altocumulus Lenticularous clouds that formed over southeastern Texas. These are wave clouds that are usually seen over the ridges of high peaks around the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountain ranges:

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Have a great night, and we will get the blog updated Thursday.

Gary

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30 comments to Rain Moves Right Back Into The Forecast

  • Dobber

    Any rain tonight or during rush hour tomorrow Gary?

  • Henley

    Glad to see Jadianne is moving along…it just never seemed like a fit.

  • KevinGame7

    I think it had to do with ratings…and KSHB has a lot of room to improve.

  • erock89

    Gary,
    Been a follower of the LRC for about three or so years now. It amazes me how accurate it is! I’m not here to troll like most are but I do want to ask a amateur question just because I am curious. Our winter was dry with very little storm systems that hit us. Are these the same storms hitting us this spring but just taking another path or are these storms a different system then the ones that missed us. It just seems more active this spring but again I am a amateur weather enthusiast so I have no idea haha. Hope all is well!

    • chris

      Erock the storm systems are the same as winter. The difference is the current version was able to tap the gulf moisture to be able to produce all this rain. During the winter the moisture was cut off from all the storm systems so that they barely produced.

      • yewtrees

        I don’t think this is how Gary interpreted it. Based on his Spring forecast, I think he believes that what happened in the winter should be cycling back in the spring.

        “The weather pattern is cycling, according to the LRC, and the same weather pattern that brought us only 14 inches of snow this past winter continues today. Rainfall will likely be near or below average. The chance of above average rainfall is low, and we do have concerns that there could be a drought this year? Conditions have been drying out over Kansas and it is something we will be monitoring closely.

        • chris

          Yewtrees i know..but i was explaining to erock why it is raining so much with the current storms. We had the storm systems in the winter, but they had no moisture to work with. The same storm systems are cycling back through. The difference is the gulf has been tapped. I believe gary said he didn’t know if the gulf would provide the moisture when he had stated that. Don’t quote me on that but i believe that was his thinking when he made that forecast.

    • Erock,

      As others have addressed, let me add my two cents. Incredibly, even though we have had ten inches of rain this month, I can still argue that we weren’t in “the right spot”, as I predicted accurately for the winter, and as my prediction was for the spring. And, thank goodness. If we were, then we would have had the 15 to 25 inches of rain that has fallen in the places that have been in the right spot, like parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Now, why has it gotten wet? During the winter there were many storm systems that passed by dry. And, when you aren’t in the right spot this means we are not really near the good lifting areas and functional areas of the storm systems. And, there is a lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture during the cold season. The systems would go by dry. As soon as the storm systems weaken a bit, and the jet stream lifts northward and weakens just a bit, as it does every May, the Gulf of Mexico moisture will end up sticking around. The cold fronts aren’t strong enough to wipe the moisture out. Jeff Penner and I analyzed the pattern, and we forecasted that it would get very wet with this LRC in late May into early June. And, it has. It is lush, green, beautiful, and summer is just three weeks away.

      Let me know if you have any follow up questions.

      Gary

      • yewtrees

        Gary. You made this statement “we forecasted that it would get very wet with this LRC in late May into early June” after you made the Spring forecast. If LRC is legit, why can’t you see that wet pattern coming in late May into early June when you made the Spring forecast?

        • Yewtrees,

          I believe you have asked this question a few times before. We did forecast it. I will post the lead graphic on that spring forecast in a blog entry right now. We clearly said that it would get wet in late May and we would need it going into summer.

          Gary

      • erock89

        Awesome thanks for the info Gary! You too Chris!

  • Hume-Dude

    I said the same thing when I made an attempt to grade his spring forecast, which I gave a C+. Gary did respond to my post by saying he was cautious going into Spring because of the very dry pattern were in. Sometimes it is very difficult to break that, I totally agree with Gary on that aspect of the forecast. Most of us on here cannot remember a Month this wet, it makes last June’s wet period blush. So Gary may have wanted to issue a wetter forecast, but he toned it down a bit based off what we had been experiencing. The NWS did have an area very near KC in high risk of flooding this year, but I did not really believe them. That was a great forecast

    • chris

      Hume i remember the may of 1993. It was wetter than this month if i remember right. Maybe seds or mike can help me out on this one. If i recall there were heavier amounts of rain with each storm that year.

      • Hume-Dude

        No comparison to 93′ yet I agree. I remember that year pretty well too although I was only 12 or so. It was sort of what got me into Meteorology, all the active storms coming so regularly. But that was more a summer event if my memory serves me correctly, we had these excessive rain falls all throughout June and well into July. Stalled out frontal boundary was main culprit that year, just hung up in our region and bounced back and forth for 8 weeks dumping 3-6″ rains every other night from Southern Missouri to Nebraska/Iowa. Basically was a MCS machine, nightly or every other few days we had one MCS after another.

        • chris

          Agreed hume. That was my senior year in high school and i remember all the mcs systems interfeering with my summer before college. I have a hunch that same thing is gonna happen this year

  • AW

    9.95 inches here in LV since yesterday for May. Spring total is at 14.22, so about average for us.

  • The0

    Be quiet troll. You are entitled to your opinion, however unprofessionally you go about giving it most of the time. Anyone can find holes in written words. You just have to look hard enough. You are going to micro in your search. However, I will say that Gary does also make predicitions like we will have an arctic outbreak the week of Jan 20 to Feb 2, or something like that and the trolls come back with we always have arctic outbreaks in January. The key is when. No one seems to mention when we have a warm spell over a 10-14 day period in January and it was predicted to not be an arctic outbreak, but then we have the outbreak pretty much on schedule to what was forecasted. No one gives credit for that kind of stuff. He’s not perfect, by any means and I don’t think he says he is. You just like to find the soft spot and make up things that even give the appearance of possibly being a spot to hit on. You don’t really ever offer anything worthwhile to discuss. Is that because we already know who you are? Obviously.

    • The0

      Nice words. Very good quality there. You assume that when someone challenges you that they somehow agree with every detail Gary mentions. That is simply not true. You are so jaded and against him that if anyone mentions anything counter to you that they somehow hang on Gary’s every word. That is extremely short-sided and fails to really read and interpret what the argument really is. You are a troll because of the WAY you present most of your thoughts and the inappropriate wording you use. If you would stay professional and counter things, you wouldn’t be called a troll. However, I’ve come to realize you just don’t give a crap about that, and, in fact, encourage it. That is one trait of a troll. You clear intention is to not present information that is pertinent and discussion worthy…..MOST of the time. Onnce in a while you do, but it is rare.

      • The0

        What a canned line. I can categorically state I’ve never met Mike and you can’t possibly know my IP address. You are just making crap up. It’s not possible for you to know unless you have access to the KSHB servers.

    • kcmookie

      It amazes me how all of you asshats are the same. Why are you here if your opinion of the LRC & Gary are so low? It shows just how pathetic and small your world and life is that you have nothing better to do than come here and talk crap. I come here to learn about weather and get a better understanding about what is going on, why are you here little guy?

  • nerd in lansing

    So as a college student I don’t get it. Why waste your time trolling a blog? If you want people to take you seriously start a website dedicated to making a logical fact based argument against the lrc. You cant rail against science by making an entirely emotional argument, people will just laugh at you.

    • AW

      I could have sworn this was a weather blog, not an argument blog. Really, who cares? If you don’t think the LRC is legit, that’s nice. If you do, that’s nice, too.

      In other news, there are multiple severe watches out in the plains and the northeast. How about we talk about this?

  • chris

    Wow the stormss are really churning in western kansas…glad to see them get some much needed rain for the wheat crops. Hopefully that will provide some much needed moisture for growth and result in good nesting cover for the birds so that they rebound this year for a great hunting season…i bet they turn into a big mcs and we get some more heavy rain tonight.

  • brianwat

    Seasonal differences apparently Kevin. Boston had well over hundred inches of snow but less than a half inch of rain. Has to be a seasonal difference because Boston apparently turns into a desert in the springtime according to the lrc and Gary who loved to coin the phrase of kc just not in the right spot is now suddenly a rain forest. That must be a seasonal difference too since every may it rains almost every single day of the month.

    • brianwat

      Look I don’t want to insult the lrc followers so I’ll use the politically correct phrase and call you factually challenged.

    • chris

      Brian let me see if i can help you out. The storm systems cycle. That is what the lrc shows. Now these same systems are cycling back around. The difference is that this time around they have moisture to work with where this winter the systems came through dry. While the results are different since the storms now have moisture to work with this spring, the same cycling pattern is occuring. That is what the lrc shows. The exact opposite is happening in the northeast. The moisture supply is cut off. You can still have a storm system pass through but if there is no moisture to work with it will not produce. We just happen to be in the right spot now with the moisture stream feeding these storm systems so they are now able to produce. If we had the moisture flowing last winter we would have been hammered by snow. Hope this helps.

    • The0

      Braintwat, even though you are correct about May being a wet month for KC, I would challenge you to show me that it rains nearly every day in May around here. This year for sure. There have been plenty of times, and not too distant, that we’ve had extremely dry May’s and the early heat of summer has already started building before Memorial day. I would say that you are factually challenged and once again make a statement that is just not totally true. It’s much easier to poke holes in your “facts” than it is the LRC.

  • lenexa_loon

    big rain marching across Texas. good luck to folks down there. I can’t believe that river rose 26 feet in one hour and swept away a house with 12 people vacationing… must have been debris piling up downstream.
    The latest drought monitor has Kansas and Oklahoma 99% clear.

    In ’93, May wasn’t this wet, just saying…
    How long is this pattern going to last?