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Rain is in the forecast, and we need it!

Good morning bloggers, It’s Friday!

A storm system is off the California coast. This is going to be ejected out over the plains in a transitioning pattern according to the LRC.  For an in-depth analysis of where we are in the weather pattern, and for a brand new way of getting your long range weather forecast, click on  Weather 2020 for details and click on the blog over there.  Here is this morning’s 500 mb flow:

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The upper level low is currently off the west coast.

2Take a look at what happens to this upper level low. It weakens, but it is still hanging in there as it approaches the plains and moves into southeastern Colorado on Sunday morning.  This system is pulling in a tremendous amount of moisture in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere from the Pacific Ocean. And, Gulf of Mexico air will also be drawn in as the system moves across the plains on Sunday afternoon. This will result in a cold rain with temperature above freezing across most of our viewing area.  Rainfall amounts will vary between o.10″ and 0.70″.

Energy, moving over an eastern Pacific ridge, will begin carving out a trough over the United States. This part of the pattern has been expected and forecast by the LRC for weeks and it is right on schedule according to our 50 to 55 day cycle. Again, go to the new site www.Weather2020.com and click on the blog for a comparison to other cycles. What does it mean for Kansas City? The finer, smaller scale details are still evolving, but it has our attention this morning.

Here is a look at the forecast map valid:

 

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I will finish the blog around 8:30 AM…..

Have a great morning. We will have live updates on 41 Action News today and tonight.  Thank you for spending a few minutes on the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary Lezak

 

 

 

 

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39 comments to Rain is in the forecast, and we need it!

  • McCabe58

    So are you saying no chance of ice Gary?

  • Fred Souder

    Gary,
    I like that first map! So, what you are saying is that energy off the coast of California is going to sit there until people start breaking the blog rules again? Then let me start by saying that everyone on here is crazy and your forecasts stink.
    Or maybe you meant to say “until the ‘Block’ breaks down”? :)

  • TRuch2012

    I am new to here, I have a question didn’t know if anyone couple answer. Are we going to have a early spring and early summer again? Also is the tornado season going to be high again this year? Didn’t know how far ahead you where able to make a educated guess Gary or anyone wake that can answer.

    • You can go and click on my new website and go week to week and see what is expected. February will have a few cold blasts from the north. So, spring will have a few early moments, but not like last year.

  • west shawnee

    Awesome blog posts lately and love the new website.

    So is the range still .1-.7 do we expect more the further north of the metro?

  • yewtrees

    If you expected this pattern would return according to lrc, how come you are still uncertain three days ago.”we would have a heavy precipitation event around Saturday night or Sunday, but I am not sure I buy that potential yet.”

  • Craig

    Could it be??
    Suddenly, the GFS has a decent snow next Wednesday.

    • It is possible. The back wave may dig harder. It did produce snowstorms in the past two cycles, but in Minnesota. So, let’s see how it evolves.

  • Fred Souder

    Gary,
    Perusing the new site. Looks good. What is up with the local forecast at the bottom of the page? Is that function operating correctly? I get temps near 60 with thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday next week, with temps in the upper thirties wed/thur. for Overland park. This does not seem to match any other forecasts I have seen.
    Also, still waiting for the “blog” to break down so this system can move out of california and give us some rain…

    • Fred,

      Very funny! And, that forecast with the 7 day on it is computer generated. It obviously isn’t my forecast. But, remember, this site is going national. So, others will be able to get their forecast. Maybe it shouldn’t even be on there, not sure, but we are just testing it out. I appreciate the feedback.

  • mgsports

    What if the Groundhog doesn’t see his shadow then Gary Prediction changes to more Spring and less Winter? Then putting your Weather Channel on new Website won’t work then because a station in Orlando-ABC replaced it’s Radar Channel with Mega TV by moving the Radar and so on to it’s Website

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, is there still a chance of any ice with this weekends system?

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    I know you mentioned one ice storm in your winter forecast — when do you see the most likely time for that to happen?

    • Jerry,

      We haven’t quite had the set-up as it has been so dry. We will have to see how the active month of February sets up. There will be Arctic air available. Right now I would say the chance is low.

  • mowermike

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif”

    This would be good should it pan out over the next 7 days.

    Great website Gary! I didn’t have a clue on how this would look….

  • Theo

    Your new site is a step forward; however, I believe it would be taken much more seriously if you produced something for peer review.

    Yes, for the 97th time: No ice this weekend!

  • dogsinkc

    I don’t want rain now. When are we going to get snow again?

  • Fred Souder

    Gary,
    I would remove the local computer generated 7 day forecasts from the 2020 website until the bugs are worked out. The forecasts are clearly not close to reality here, and thus probably elsewhere as well. I guess I will change my tune if we do indeed have thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

  • sedsinkc

    Gary, just playing devil’s advocate here. You need better writing QC for your Weather2020 long range forecast discussions. I clicked on two different locations (Dallas and Denver) for March 14 (Spring Break time, a time many people would probably want to check ahead on the forecast) and in those two results I found a total of 3 errors, one was grammatical and two were spelling. It’s difficult (for me) to take something seriously if it contains spelling and/or grammatical errors. It highlights a certain degree of sloppiness and lack of attention to detail.

    • sedsinkc

      It’s like having a resume that contains spelling errors. No matter how good your job qualifications, a recruiter sees the error and your resume immediately goes right in the trash or the “reject” file.

  • sedsinkc

    Here’s some good news. I found only one other minor spelling issue within a forecast discussion for any other region of the country during the week of March 14. Just my bad luck, picking the Texas and Colorado regions first.

  • Jerry

    For an interesting chance to see the theory’s long-range forecast specifically for KC, I’ve copied-and-pasted the forecast that comes up on your 2020 page for KC for the next couple months.

    – – – – – – – – –

    Week of 02/05/13:
    A cold and stormy week is in the Weather 2020 forecast. This will be an active week of weather across the plains states. Expect a strong and fast moving storm to move across between Monday and Wednesday with snow likely across Nebraska and Iowa and a few rain showers farther south. A powerful storm system will be likely either with that mid-week storm or a weekend storm system around February 10th. Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines will likely have snow from this second storm. This is probably not a great week for outdoor activities.

    Week of 02/12/13:
    Weather 2020 is forecasting the part of the weather pattern, that produced a blizzard across parts of this region in a past cycle, will be returning this week. So, we are forecasting a major snowstorm and potential blizzard that will likely impact Omaha and Des Moines. Kansas City will likely see snow or a cold rain early in the week, and possibly later in the week as well. But, that second storm may affect areas farther south like Joplin and Wichita or even farther south than this if it does exactly what it did in the last cycle. We expect it to be a bit farther north this time. Arctic air will be near by so expect below average temperatures and above average precipitation.

    Week of 02/19/2013:
    Kansas City may see a quick band of snow. Cold air will likely be in place as a storm approaches. There will be one band of snow moving across Kansas and Missouri. Nebraska and Iowa will likely have two smaller snow systems this week. Expect colder than average temperatures but a big warming trend is around a week away.

    Week of 02/26/2013:
    This week will begin with a chance of snow across Nebraska and Iowa around Monday or Tuesday. And, this could affect most of eastern Kansas and Missouri as well. This storm will be gone and off to the east by mid-week allowing for a nice warming trend heading into March 2nd and 3rd. A big warm-up will begin by the weekend.

    Week of 03/05/2013:
    If you have travel or wedding plans to Omaha, Kansas City, Des Moines, or St. Louis, expect a dry week with a big warming trend. Storm systems will be tracking way north allowing for above average temperatures through the weekend of March 9th.

    Week of 03/12/2013:
    Kansas City to St. Louis and north into Omaha and Des Moines will have a mostly dry week. A strong storm will have just exited the area by Monday leaving a cold air mass in place. Great weather is expected with a big warming trend by the weekend of March 16th.

    Week of 03/19/2013:
    Weather 2020 is forecasting a dry week from Kansas City to St. Louis and north into Omaha and Des Moines. A cold front will move through by the weekend of March 23rd and 24th. A few showers may form by the end of the weekend, but closer to the Mississippi River. Expect near seasonal averages, but colder than average by the weekend.

    Week of 03/26/2013:
    Nebraska and Iowa south into Kansas and Missouri will start out cold with a strong storm likely forming over northern Iowa into Minnesota. The week will end with a chance of thunderstorms, especially over Missouri and Iowa. The western plains should be quite windy later in the week with a few showers.

    Week of 04/02/2013:
    Severe weather season has arrived and the first week of April has a good chance of a strong storm system moving out into the plains. There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms across Kansas and Missouri, and possibly farther north into Nebraska and Iowa. It will be a rather wild week with two storm systems moving across the plains. The stronger storm is expected between Wednesday and Friday. It will be breezy and cooler by the weekend of April 6th.

    Week of 04/09/2013:
    We are forecasting some nice weather if you have an outdoor wedding planned in Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita, or St. Louis. A strong cold front will be approaching the area by the end of the April 13th weekend. There will be one storm system ahead of this cold front with a round of showers and thundertorms earlier in the week. Check back in for updates as we get closer to this week as this forecast is being made 100 days before this week.

    Week of 04/16/2013:
    Two storm systems will be affecting Kansas City and St. Louis this week. Nebraska and Iowa will also be impacted by some rain. There willlikely be a few strong to severe thunderstorms with the early week storm. Expect near average temperatures. Check back in for updates as we get closer to this week as this forecast is being made 100 days before this week.

    Week of 04/23/2013:
    If you are planning a wedding for the weekend of April 27th we will have to pay close attention to a storm coming in from the west. It will warm up ahead of this storm system with a stalling front. This could lead to some heavy rain with a significant severe weather risk. It may hold off until Sunday or the next Monday. Check back in for updates as we get closer to this week as this forecast is being made 100 days before this week.

  • Theo

    Will be pleasantly surprised if the metro gets .50 inch of rain or better. “Significant moisture with this system” is not that accurate. It is going to encounter painfully dry air across TX, OK & KS. I think .25 inch is more realistic.

    Not sold on snow next week either. Long way out, but looks like the low doesn’t get it’s act together until it’s well east of the metro.

  • Theo

    FYI: Chicago’s “snowless” streak ended today. O’Hare reported 1.1 inches of snow, since midnight, as of 9:30am today.

  • cweb

    What happened to high of 25 and chance of snow next Wed.

  • Lets hope we can get more then .50 of rain! It’s been hard to get any decent amount of rain around here.

  • west shawnee

    According to your forcast at 4:30 now .17 is our max? Yesterday an inch was possible what happened?

  • ChiefsFan

    I hope we get some snow in early February!!!

  • McCabe58

    Doubtful chiefs.

  • Gary why Weather 2020? Is there some significance to the title? Good luck with it! You’re really putting your theory out there to be tested!

  • rred95

    Thats the year he is going to retire and move to vegas or as in “2020” vision

  • ivy

    Hi!
    What are the similarities between oceanography and meteorology,please?

  • trinlivco

    Gary, watched the 10:00 p.m news tonight. Give me a break 0.10 of rain for Chillicothe area. Why even bother making a forcast like that. It doesnt amount to a darn think as damn dry as it is in our area. Tell me when its going to really rain!!!! TR