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Rain, Freezing Rain and a Huge Warm Up

Good Saturday Morning bloggers,

There is quite  a bit of activity in the weather depratment.  We have been tracking a storm system off of the southern California coast all week.  This storm system is now finally heading northeast towards our region and will arrive later tonight and early Sunday.   Also, overnight Arctic air surged southeast across Iowa and northeast Missouri.  This is going to make for an interesting set up this weekend.  Lets go through the series of events.

First, today will be a calm day with highs around 50° here to 25°  in northeast Missouri.  Second, the storm system from southern California will race into the region later tonight spreading rain to eastern Kansas and western Missouri around midnight with temperatures near 40°.  The rain will head northeast into northeast Missouri by 2-3 AM with temperatures below freezing, so the rain will fall on cities like Kirksville and freeze on contact, freezing rain.  This will continue until about 7 AM.  Then 7 Am to 6 PM Sunday will see the rain diminish as warm air surges north.  KC will come close to 60° by Sunday evening with areas in northeast Missouri warming to 40°.  So, it will be a brief ice storm.  See MAP 1-5 below for the sequence of events and the Freezing Rain  Advisory.

MAP #1: FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

MAP #2:1230 AM SUNDAY…HERE COMES THE RAIN!

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MAP #3:  230 AM SUNDAY…FREEZING RAIN STARTS 80-100 MILES NORTHEAST OF KC

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MAP #4: 7 AM SUNDAY…THE MAIN RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST

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MAP #5: SUNDAY 6 PM…LOOK AT THE TEMPERATURE, 58°! WITH HUMIDITY!  LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Blog4

The other thing to notice, besides the warmer temperatures are the rain gauges.  Amounts are around .25″.  Keep in mind, we are 20.21″ below average since April 1, 2012.  See the map below.  It would take about 100 storm systems like this to end the drought over the course of a few months.  This is unrealistic.  We need wetter storm systems and this pattern is not capable of them.  It will take this pattern to somehow be wetter during the Spring.  We are not prepared to say that at this time.

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Have a great weekend!

Jeff Penner

 

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32 comments to Rain, Freezing Rain and a Huge Warm Up

  • mgsports

    KSHB-WX COZI TV “Action Weather Plus” (Soon) meaning loosing Local Weather Channel as a Digital Sub Channel

  • restull

    Looks like here in south-central Kansas the forecast has hardly a drop of rain out of this storm! This is hard to take for the farmers. Even the long range models are showing nothing for this area through February 10th! Hopefully everyone is prepared to take water precautions for this spring and summer.

  • mowermike

    Good morning Jeff, thanks for the blog update.

    I’m hoping this storm can over achieve an drop .25-.50 for the area.

    What about rain potential for Monday /Tuesday. Latest NAM looks to have thunderstorms developing sometime Monday into Tuesday. Is this a possibility. Thunderstorms would be great.

    Looks like some energy lags behind this wave tonight and tries to do something early next week. Let’s hope what ever it is, we over achieve on both opportunities.

    • Theo

      Sounds suspiciously like wish casting. Data doesn’t support it.

    • mowermike,

      The Sunday event will be moving so fast, that we will be lucky to see .20″. The Tuesday event will likely be a big rain producer, but the best chance is eastern Missouri. If there is more energy in the southwest we will have potential to get in on the rain. The chance is 20% at this time.

      Jeff

      • Jeff, with all respect here, this is what we get every time a storm approach’s.. it’s “got” a possibility of being a rain producer, but reality never matches it. I really think based on recently historical patterns, the models should be thrown out unless they show a good size rain the day before.. other wise, they are certainly useless in helping us here in KC…

        early this week, the models show’d a lot of promise..now, IF we are lucky we may get .20? That’s nothing but enough to wet the ground…

  • HeatMiser

    It’s starting to look like another almost snowless winter like last year, except the wee bit of snow we did get was at the beginning of the winter this year instead of the end like last year. How incredibly boring for a snow lover such as myself. Old Man Winter, for the second year in a row you an “F”. Under comments: “Extreme Underachiever”

  • Looks like tis will be another bust as far as rain totals. Looks like the drought marches on as strong as ever.

    • Theo

      It’s only a bust if you believed the early hype of .5 to 1 inch. Consistent failure to take into account the dryness of the region will reduce precipitation totals. Computer models cannot factor it in and meteorologists rely too much on the computers.

      • mowermike

        “Consistent failure to take into account the dryness of the region will reduce precipitation totals”

        This isn’t an accurate claim:

        Tell that to the people in Southern and Eastern Mo.down to Arkansas up to the Ohio and Tennesse Valley’s. They were just as dry this last Spring and Summer as most of us here in KC.(many areas were in severe to exceptional drought) Some of these areas have had 300% of normal since Nov. 1st.

        I think we have just been very unlucky at times. Hopefully that won’t continue. Storms just have not lined up good for KC. That will change some day.

        • mowermike,

          I agree with your assessment on the rainfall patterns. But, based on the LRC we were are not in a “hot spot”, so it will be tough to get good moisture. The only hope is that this pattern could be wet in the Spring. We are far from saying that at this point.

          Have a great weekend!

          Jeff

      • mowermike

        Theo

        BTW, you said this same thing about the Jan. 10th rain event here in the city when you predicted under .10 inches of rain, that storm produced half inch amounts in KC. Not saying that will happen with this, just making a point.

  • rred95

    Really dont think February is going to be active as far as precip goes with a chance of 3 or 4 events as Gary has mentioned. Heck, it hasent been active for 17 months why would it become active all of a sudden. I have heard many bloggers say “when in drought leave it out” kind of a simplistic way to look at weather but seems right on.

  • weatherman brad

    the upcoming storm that is going to bring us rain has now been named luna according to the weather channel, also speaking of the weather channel they have kc on the northwestern edge of getting some severe weather possible for tuesday. What are they talkin about thay local stations dont.

    brad

  • Emaw

    I just don’t see it either for February, all of the systems we’ve been getting are so moisture starved. Earlier in th week Gary talked about this storm bringing in pacific moisture and drawing moisture from the gulf, now we’re going to be lucky if we get .25″? As far as snow goes for February I don’t see much in the way of that happening either, when it has been cold enough for snow it’s been bone dry, when we do get moisture it’s too warm for snow. If the pattern repeats itself every 50 – 55 days what will be so drastically different in February?

  • LBF1958

    I’m confused. The 7 day forcast shows the rain on Monday not Sunday.

    • nbell31b

      Pretty sure they adjusted the days of the week and temps, but forgot to move the weather graphics with them. So stick the chances of rain on Sunday, Tuesday, etc but keep the days and temps where they are

  • trinlivco

    Hey LBF1558 you are not the only one confused about the weather. Try to make heads or tails of any weather forcast from anyone in our area. Even all the blogers on here have differant ideas on what the weather is really going to do today, tomorrow or next week. All I know is its damn dry and getting worse and no one can tell you when we get moisture or how much. Mother nature will bless us some day with rain just hope its soon. This spring and summer wont be pretty if it doesn.t happen. WE ALL will pay the price!! TR

  • MikeL

    I really miss the fun winters of the 1970s and early 1980s. Most winters since then have been worthless with just a few exceptions.

  • LBF1958

    Hmmm. And now the 7-day puts the rain back on Sunday. . *sigh*

  • f00dl3

    Gary, Jeff, are you guys ever going to fix the web 7 day so it stops messing up advancing the day without updates to the data.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Radar returns are showing some good moisture headed this way. 10 degrees cooler and it would be a fun night. But I will take what water we can get.

  • We could use some fun in the weather dept!