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Rain dries out to another mild day

Good morning bloggers.

Did you like the rain last night?  The sound of rain hitting the rooftops and windows almost sounded foreign as it’s been so rare lately.

Here are the rainfall totals:


Across the metro, 1/4″ to 1/2″ generally fell.  This is much appreciated, but we’re still well over 16 inches short for the year and in a severe drought.

Today we’re drying out with off and on cloud cover.  Highs will be  in the upper 50s.  It’ll be cooler tomorrow as a weak December cold front moves through.  Sunday’s highs will be in the 40s.  While cooler, it’s still slightly warmer than average for this time of year. 

Temperatures will get a little more mild into the middle of next week, with Wednesday once again hitting the 50s.  We’ll then be poised for another cold front to move through Wednesday night.  This one will be stronger.

The above map is from the GFS forecasting model for Thursday morning at midnight.  The front will likely pass KC dry i.e. without dropping any precipitation over the metro.  We’ll watch future forecasts in case they’re a little more aggressive at bringing any snow down to KC in this time frame.  Right now, my forecast is for any snow to stay north of KC, and any rain to fire southeast.  This would be a repeat of just about every other storm that’s passed the Central Plains within the last 2 months (with the exception of last night’s storm that brought the overnight rain). 

The air behind the front will be cold enough to drop daytime temperatures to the 30s for the end of the week.

Between then and Christmas, no big storms are showing up in the long range computer models that could bring KC some good snow.  At this point, we’re still looking at a less than 5% chance for a white Christmas this year.


Based on Kansas City records, there were 20 Christmas Days with 1″+ of snow on the ground since 1888.  That gives us a 16% average for having a white Christmas in KC.  The last time we had a white Christmas was 3 years ago in 2009.  That year, 6″ of snow sat on the ground after 3″+ fell that day alone and 9″+ fell over a 3-day span.

We’ll have an update to our forecast at 5 pm, including the chance that Wednesday night’s front could bring any snow.  Have a great Saturday.

-GW

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17 comments to Rain dries out to another mild day

  • As much as I predicted…

  • I am currently updating my comment,so please check back in ! Pres. Kevin :)

  • weatherjaded

    The weather is really quite depressing. Its Christmas season and there is really no feeling that it is winter(meteorological). Slow weather=slow blog. George, your last graphic seems odd to have the 16% listed as an average. Maybe just the wording. Have a great day.

    • Weatherjaded, yeah, wording choice could be better.

      Bottom line, according to the NWS KC winter statistics page, 20 times since 1888 KC has had a white Christmas. That yeilds an overall 16% probability of a white Christmas.

      Thanks!
      -GW

  • Dobber

    George, your stats on Christmas day 2009 are wrong I am afraid. That was the year we had a blizzard on Christmas eve/day, metro wide 10+ inches. Those were the good old days I’m afraid…..

    • Dobber,
      The Christmas stats are correct:
      December 24, 2009 – 3.7″ of snowfall at KCI
      December 25, 2009 – 3.3″ of snowfall at KCI
      December 26, 2009 – 0.8″ of snowfall at KCI
      December 27, 2009 – 1.3″ of snowfall at KCI

      Total 9.1″ at KCI

      You can check these numbers on the NWS climate reports.

      But Dobber, there were many locations that did see 10″ within the metro during that big storm.

      Yes, the good old days…but be patient…they’ll return…eventually (waiting…)

      • Dobber

        George, I feel like the blog was worded differently when I posted this. I recall it saying we had 3.3 inches on the ground in 2009? Oh well… Maybe I was hungover?

        • HAHA DOBBER, IT HAPPENS TO THE BEST OF US.
          MAYBE YOU CAUGHT AN EARLY VERSION OF THE BLOG that was being revised. 8-11 am the blog usually goes through a sort of evolution..as I’m juggling a few things and trying to write it!
          Cheers.

  • Emaw

    .30 in north Olathe. I’m thinking we’re going to be flirting with 50 degrees on Christmas, thank you zonal flow may I have another!

  • frigate

    I haven’t gotten that memo about GW…I sure hope its not true. On a brighter note…57 in SW Grain Valley last night!!!!!

  • rred95

    yep Gary said himself gw got a good job in florida, i think. Anyway i think its a done deal, more info gw?

  • Theo

    No stations nor NWS predicting any chance of snow Wednesday. More wishcasting. Don’t let facts get in the way of your forecasts.

  • weatherman brad

    Wednesday night thursday morning snow looks possible but who here picked thursday dec 20, not the other news stations, not mother nature. anyone give up yet. let me give out a hint who picked it, his user starts with w with a space and a b and is a junior at ku.

    brad

    • Brad, you could be correct…Looks like an inch of snow is possible…But with a strong NW wind,it may become difficult to measure…I hope you win…I also hope you have the cash to pay the luxury tax you,ll have to pay up-right once you go to collect your prize,approx.1/3 of the its face value…If you do win,will you invest in KFC Enterprises??? signed Kevin, Pres.of KFC

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    I picked December 23rd as my entry. We’ll see what happens, doesnt look good though for me.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    The Euro has been more spot on this entire year than the crappy GFS and NAM models.