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Questions Today!

Good morning bloggers,

We will be working on and preparing our winter forecast that will be on 41 Action News November 19th.  What do you want to see in this year’s 3 minutes or so that I get to describe and forecast this weather pattern that is still evolving?  Please provide me with some input from you, the most passionate weather enthusiasts in town. I will take all of your suggestions seriously into consideration.

Superstorm Sandy is continuing to weaken but spinning around and barely moving inland over the eastern states.  This monster storm, that is still strong but weakening today, has produced millions of power outages, major flooding, and a blizzard.  Cold air is wrapping around this entire storm as it is in transition this morning, but not moving very fast.  The above map is the surface forecast valid at 7 PM tonight. Kansas City is stuck in a very boring pattern on the back side of this storm.

Here is the snowfall map as of yesterday across North America:

So, again what are your suggestions for the winter forecast. I will begin working on it this week.

Have a great day.

Gary

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29 comments to Questions Today!

  • trailrider

    How does a hurricane fit in the LRC? What effect does it have on the weather pattern?

    As for the winter forecast don’t do one! Just say it is still evolving.

  • frigate

    Sorry, Gary…but with what we’ve been going thru for the past year…I can’t get excited about much of anything. In fact it seems like the drought has only entrenched itself even deeper. My only thought then would be…when will this ever end?. Obviously, it will eventually but I see another repeat of last years winter other than more deeper and longer lasting cold spells.

  • Farmgirl

    I would rather hear about Brett’s squirrel and acorn winter forecast. It has the same odds as being correct when compared to the LRC.

  • Jerry

    What will Hurricane Sandy look like when that storm re-appears in a month or two or three, per your cycle theory? That is going to be a WILD winter for the east coast, I presume, given your theory.

    If the cycle sets up between October 1st and November 10th, the record-breaking hurricane is right in the heart of that set-up period, so it most certainly is part of your cycle, right?

    • This part of the pattern will be returning two or three times this winter. A hurricane is just like a shortwave that is part of a much larger pattern. This huge trough is part of the cycling pattern.

  • davidmcg

    Both the NWS and Old Farmers’ Almanac have predicted warmer and dryer than average for winter 2012-2013 for our area. Not hard to foreacast or foresee, it is very hard to break a cycle of deep drought which we are in now. Squirrels and acorns appear to uphold that. So do the persimmon tree’s and even the dogs aren’t putting on much winter fat. So what would I like to see different than past years? The only thing I could suggest is getting the producer to give you more than three minutes. But, it wouldn’t do much good this year. Gonna be a long boring winter, look outside now and you see it. The big summer cracks are back, ponds are still drying up. Not gonna be good for anybody. We need frozen and liquid precip and frozen ground to kill bugs, weeds, prepare the water table for drinking and planting. The drought will take a long time to recover from, not gonna happen in this next LRC.

  • greek

    When will the new pattern finish evolving? I just don’t see any real change happening. I agree with Farmgirl. Just repeat the squirrel and acorn winter forecast. Or the Farmer’s Almanac forecast. Heck, just pick one out of a hat. It would be worth as much as any winter forecast from a meteorologist.

  • rred95

    yep.. It really has become quite silly to put out long range forcast (and many outlets do it) lets work on getting a 5 day forcast right first. The winter forcast is obviously for entertainment purposes only.

    • Perhaps yes, perhaps not. We will be doing one on November 19th, and I ask for suggestions from, what I thought were the most passionate ones, but your passion seems to include just negative energy. I asked for how you want to see this winter forecast on the air? I didn’t ask whether or not we were going to do it. And, believe it or not viewers want to know what we are thinking. And, maybe, just maybe I can get it right this year!!!!

  • SheikYerbouti

    this very tough crowd LOL…

    Gary just say weather changing next week. Details at 10. Then don’t show up at 10.

  • Over the last 3 weeks, I,ve noticed a gradual warming of the SST, which would indicate a strengthening El Nino…Unfortunately, the El Nino/La Nina usually has “NO” implications on the K.C. metro area Wx., but,I heard the other day, in regards to Sandys left turn into the NE. U.S., was caused by High pressure in the NW Atlantic that has been getting stronger over the last couple of years…I believe this “High” will continue to create “deeper” troughing in the easter CONUS this season, and leave the central/High plains region in a Quasi/NW zonal flow through “most” of this season…A few disturbances Will effect our area,but with “limited” moisture, and little in the way of precipitation,w/ limited amounts of snow fall…Temps.should be “Above” normal… That,s My Two Cents Worth…Signed, Kevin… Pres.of KFC(KEVINS FORECASTING CENTER).. Have a good 1. :) P.S. Gary, If you have any questions, feel free to ask.

    • f00dl3

      This “high” pressure area that has been stuck in the northwest Atlantic the past few years – I’m curious to if this is a result of the global warming, and may be a perma high that may be here to stay here on out. I was reading somewhere that due to the melting of the ice caps this summer and over time, the wind patterns over the north atlantic have changed. Maybe this is the first major sign of this?

      • This report came out after the two very negative Arctic Oscillations in the winters of 2009-2010, and 2010-2011, but then last year had the extreme positive AO. But, there may be something to this, not sure?

        • Fred Souder

          This has more to do with cycling ocean patterns (AMO) than global warming. NOAA’s latest research indicates what meteorologists have knows for years, that global warming decreases blocking and makes weather more consistant and less extreme. (yes, I know this goes agains what you usually hear in the media) Since the AMO is evolving, the PDO is shifting negative, and ENSO will be trending for more la nina’s for the next 30 years, we should be expecting more blocking and unfortunately – more extremes than we have seen in the remarkably stable past 30 years. Hopefully we won’t see a repeat of the ’30s, or heaven forbid, the late 1800′s.

  • dogncatmom

    Gary, I would love to see a breakdown of whether you think north or south of the river will be getting the bigger hit with cold and precip.

  • Jerry

    For what its worth, the blog has been painfully slow to access the last couple of days – I think it has inhibited conversation that might have otherwise occured during this historic event.

  • Jerry

    What happened to the LRC Weather webiste, Gary? Is the LRC no longer a collaborative for-profit business venture, as it was the last few years?

  • JohnNCWX

    From what I gathered the feature being discussed (NW Atlantic blocking) is thought to be initiated by more freshwater in the North Atlantic. In the spring/summer of 2010 I went to N. Europe which happened to coincide with the Iceland volcano that caused climate havoc itself (Snow in AMS in May???) but it was explained to me by our British counterparts that the combination of more precipitation in the sub-artic areas of the N. Atlantic combined with melting icecaps has caused the salinity to change and effectively re-vector the gulfstream towards Portugal, instead of toward the English straights. The change in water circulation would therefore impact wind currents, theoretically setting off these meridional events. Even though there was a warm winter here last year, Europe’s last three winters have been brutal.

    I have since looked at thermal images of the gulf stream and saw little evidence of repositioning, but I am not sure how transitory the stream itself is…there was some northern movement (small) and no movement towards the south (Carolina coast area). It seems a little hollywood to me but what other plausible theories exist?

    • Good thoughts John,

      It is something to pay close attention to again this winter. Even though the winters have been cold and stormy over Europe the past three winters and two of the past three in the United States, it doesn’t mean that it will continue. Now, there is increasing evidence that the AO will be negative, possibly deeply negative at times this winter, as opposed to last year’s positive AO. The blocking last year was farther east allowing for the deep penetration of cold air into Europe. This year appears to have shifted back. It will be something to pay close attention to, and it will be addressed in my winter forecast.

  • JohnNCWX

    That upper low over the Azores is nearly as big as Sandy and almost as beautiful looking sitting over the NE Atlantic. That is a really strong high pressure trying to build in from Greenland…it doesnt look like it wants to let Sandy move NE anytime soon.

  • mukustink

    Gary I would like for it to be 100% correct :)

  • sedsinkc

    Winter forecast wish list: Brief synopsis of the LRC pattern, including cycle duration and longwave features and their change during the cycle; brief discussion of “wild cards” such as AO and NAO; quantitative range predictions of temperature, snowfall and melted precip totals for the winter months. In other words, something similar to what you’ve done in the past, if memory serves. I don’t think you’ve done quantitative temperature forecasts, just above or below average forecasts. I can live with that again if quantitative temps is asking too much.

  • lenexa_loon

    so, on your winter forecast, please explain the BIG changes coming that you have been spouting for the last few weeks. You’re out of time for the new LRC pattern, it’s the same as the last one. Devasting drought, no end in sight. Why did you think and get the hopes up for us for a BIG change? Please explain.

  • mukustink

    Gary I had the same question about the LRC site that Jerry had. Can you email the reason to me as well as to why it’s not up as far as a money making venture. Thanks.

    Is it true on Halloween that you give out paper with the LRC website on it as well as the weatherblog website on it :).

    For the winterforecast I think you should include Brett’s acorn theory along with the LRC theory.

  • kobecobra76

    How does the Arctic Oscillation, melting polar ice caps and global warming fit into the LRC? How will global warming affect the LRC over time?

  • Hockeynut69

    I posted several suggestions but the blog guard must not have liked any of them. Oh well. Same old story. It will be dry, below avg. precip., avg. tempeature in total. Some ups some downs. Blah Blah Blah.