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Peak Hurricane Season Is In Ten Days

Good morning bloggers,

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The peak of Hurricane Season is reached right on September 10th, ten days from now. Some years are very quiet, but with one major landfalling hurricane disaster so far this season will be going down as one of the more memorable ones.  The tropics are still acting up with two new systems to monitor closely.  The remnants of Harvey are spinning into Tennessee today clipping the southeast corner of Missouri on its path with some rain, but the heaviest rain will be over the Tennessee Valley.  The other two systems being monitored closely are Tropical Storm Irma, which will likely become a hurricane this week, and Tropical Storm Lidia which is near the southern tip of Baja California. This storm is likely going to hug the coast of Baja with a track towards Southern California. Los Angeles may actually get some rain and thunderstorm activity if this storm holds together. The water over the Pacific Ocean is cool with the current moving south from Alaska. This cooler water protects Southern California from having tropical storms making it that far north.

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The jet stream is still near its farthest north average position. The jet stream reaches its weakest strength during the first week of August, and then it begins to slowly strengthen. What causes the jet stream? Temperature contrasts cause a fictional wind called the thermal wind to strengthen, which then helps increase the actual winds at around 30,000 feet up and the jet stream begins shifting south as fall approaches. The new Cycling Pattern then develops in just five weeks.  We are still cycling through the same pattern that set up last winter according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  And, these tropical systems are still caught in that same pattern.

There are what we call Tropical Storm Hot Spots, and one of them extends from the Yucatan Peninsula north to the Louisiana and Texas coasts. This one has lit up this year big time.  Tropical Storm Cindy in June, then Major Hurricane Harvey in August made their final landfalls in almost the exact same spot:

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As you can see on these three graphics above, Cindy and Harvey have crossed paths three times on their journey to Louisiana. Louisiana had not had a landfalling tropical storm in five years, but then two within two months of each other.  Let’s follow the tropics closely as we approach the peak of hurricane season.

Kansas City Weather:

The first halves of each month have been much drier than the second halves of each month in this pattern we are cycling through. The only exception has been April, which was wet, and close to being wetter in the second half.  August fell into suit, and it appears so will September:

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Have a great Thursday and thank you for sharing in this weather experience on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. You can always go over and join in the conversation as we all learn together about this fascinating weather. That is over on Weather2020.com.  Just click on the blog there.

Gary

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