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Paltry Rainfall and Record Highs Likely

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

The rain has come and gone and the amounts were about what we have been saying.  .10-.15″.  See MAP #1. AND #2.  The next weather on the list is a major warm up as south winds will occur through early Tuesday.  Highs today will reach near 60° with lows tonight in the 50s along with higher humidity.  Keep in mind the average high is 38° and the average low is 19°. 

Monday will see a warm fron set up across northern Missouri, putting much of our region in warm and somewhat humid air.  The record high for Monday, January 28th in Kansas City is 65° in 1917.  We are going for a high of 69°.  See MAP #3 and #4.

MAP #1:  LIVE ESP FROM 715 AM

LIVE ESP 715 AM

LIVE ESP 715 AM

MAP #2: RAINFALL  TOTALS…WHAT A JOKE!

SUNDAY RAINFALL TOTALS

SUNDAY RAINFALL TOTALS

MAP #3: MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

A WARM SURGE

A WARM SURGE

MAP #4: HGHS MONDAY…THE RECORD FOR KC IS 65° IN 1917

A RECORD HIGH IS LIKELY

A RECORD HIGH IS LIKELY

The drought wil be going on until further notice, but at least enjoy the great weather.  Have a great Sunday!

Jeff Penner

 

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48 comments to Paltry Rainfall and Record Highs Likely

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    My rain gauge says between .05-.06 rain so far. Any chance of more rain thru Tuesday?

  • .07″ for this corner of Lawrence, and I guess that is better than naught.

    • Mr. Bob what kind of weather station do you have? Pretty neat web page you have. Thanks.

      Would rather have no rain at all then .005. All it does is make things messy for nothing beneficial.

  • Just wait until February! Gary said 3-4 storm systems

  • blueflash

    Just had a brief rain shower in west central Independence. It lasted literally one minute! It’s great to pick up a quick hundredth of an inch!

  • mowermike

    “http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LNX&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=yes”

    Theo, please explain:

    This area per the drought monitor is listed as exceptional, worse then our current level in KC. If the so called dry grounds cause precip. totals to be lower, how in the world did .50-1 inch amounts fall in an area where the drought is worse then ours?

    Plus, how in the world did southern and eastern Mo. down to Arkansas up to the Ohio and Tennesse Valley’s get so much more moisture since Nov. 1st with equally dry soils as KC leading up to Nov.1st. It couldn’t have been your belief that dry grounds cause storm systems to produce less mositure.

    Oh BTW, that area is about to get blasted again early this coming week. Its precip. patterns and how they set up, KC is just not in the right place now.

    • Theo

      Pretty easy Mike. They were in the “strongest” part of the storms. We weren’t. They got way less rainfall than they would have had the ground and air not been as dry. And don’t be a dufus, Mike. Clearly the ground doesn’t cause less rain directly. My argument is that the continued dry ground provides no moisture to the atmosphere, which in turn stays bone dry. Bone dry atmosphere = inability for storms to precipitate. This storm (which I predicted a week ago would have trouble producing .25 inches) was touted by the mets (and you) as somewhere between .5 and 1 inch, or more. With no thunderstorm, it’s nearly impossible to get that kind of rainfall here in January. It’s happened, but I’ll bet you could go back 30+ years and not find even a handful of occasions. Plus, each “storm” we have had since this summer has hit a dome of dry air once it got into the plains. This has shredded the amount of precipitation because the energy of these storms were lost trying to juice up the atmosphere.

      The Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley have NOT been in drought (75% normal Nov.1, 95% normal now), so I don’t understand your argument. Where are you getting your stats? Go to “droughtmonitor.unl.edu”. That’s where mine are from. Your “equally dry soils” argument doesn’t hold water either. Pun intended.

      It’s pretty obvious that the models (which you and the mets rely on too much) don’t handle this at all. Case in point: You posted not 2 days ago (what I called a wish cast) the 120 hour QPF totals. Another one of your beloved models that has no grasp on the lack of moisture in the atmosphere.

      Your arguments, as usual, show no thought on your own, only trying to throw barbs at those that have actually studied the patterns, all the while proclaiming some “KC is not in the right place” hogwash. None of the midwest (Canada to Mexico from the Rockies to the Mississippi River) has had even close to normal moisture in the last 2 years, with the exception of Louisiana, SE AR & the Canadian border around MT and ND. Further, go the the drought monitor for Canada. They are in drought as well.

      I don’t know what other axes you have to grind, but I’m sure you’ll let me know.

      Davey: Have a good day on the tee box. Good day to be off tomorrow.

      • mowermike

        “The Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley have NOT been in drought (75% normal Nov.1, 95% normal now), so I don’t understand your argument”

        Yes,of recent they have been normal. I’m talking about their weather pattern prior to getting wet the last 90 days or so. They were equally dry back in the Spring and Summer leading up to the wetter stretch. How did that same dry ground produce so much moisture for those areas.

        I still say it’s all about rainfall patterns, currently we’re in a crappy one

      • mowermike

        “Pretty easy Mike. They were in the “strongest” part of the storms. We weren’t. They got way less rainfall than they would have had the ground and air not been as dry”

        Theo, dry air during the winter is common around thesse parts, you didn’t discover anything new.

      • mowermike

        “It’s pretty obvious that the models (which you and the mets rely on too much) don’t handle this at all. Case in point: You posted not 2 days ago (what I called a wish cast) the 120 hour QPF totals. Another one of your beloved models that has no grasp on the lack of moisture in the atmosphere”

        Not a wishcast, just discussion. That what we do on a blog. If we didn’t discuss different outcomes of each event, there would be no reason for this blog.

      • mowermike

        “Your arguments, as usual, show no thought on your own, only trying to throw barbs at those that have actually studied the patterns, all the while proclaiming some “KC is not in the right place” hogwash”

        As usual you have to talk down to everyone on here.

        You can’t let it go when you’re wrong. What about the 2-3 days below average you predicted back on Jan.11th for the next 21 days. We’re at 8 with a few more to come this week. I would think that a person that studies weather patterns would know this.

        You have had many more go wrong too.

        Also, you predict the obvious and then claim I told you so.

      • Skylar

        I’m not meaning to speak for Mike, but his “axe to grind” is probably about how you consistently post negative, inaccurate and misleading information on here.

        This theory of yours My argument is that the continued dry ground provides no moisture to the atmosphere, which in turn stays bone dry. Bone dry atmosphere = inability for storms to precipitate. is very accurate, during the growing season. One of the biggest contributors to atmospheric humidity in KC during the warm months is evapotranspiration (you should read about it, it’s really interesting: “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evapotranspiration”). However, during the winter, there are no plants to pull subsurface moisture into the air, the only moisture we get form the ground is whatever can be evaporated in the cold air by the weak sun angle. It’s even more difficult when the ground is frozen. The drought feedback loop has negligible effects on rain or snowfall during the winter, we just aren’t in the right place right now.

        Also, you claim about the extreme rarity of .5″-1″ just isn’t true. If you take the whole period of records (see this chart: “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcrecnorm-jan”), you can see that pretty much all daily rainfall records for January meet or exceed that threshold. They aren’t daily rainfall records. Nor do they include other rainfall events on the same dates that only had slightly lower rainfall totals. Unless you include 30+ events within the last 30+ years as “less then a handful”, your statement just isn’t true.

    • mowermike

      “Consistent failure to take into account the dryness of the region will reduce precipitation totals”

      What about the mositure in the air today and the humidity that will be around for a couple days. Dry region won’t affect that. What about all that moisture from Issac, then the heavy rain events October and Nov. here in KC. We had equally dry conditions then.

      “Clearly the ground doesn’t cause less rain directly. My argument is that the continued dry ground provides no moisture to the atmosphere”

      So, your point is that the dry ground is the reason for paltry precip. events due to the lack of

      • mowermike

        let me finish: hit submit by accident

        atmosphere moisture stemming back to dry grounds.

        So, dry grounds are the reason for storm systems to drop less moisture.

  • Skylar

    Well, if we can’t get any rain, then at least it will be really nice outside. That’s almost 80 degrees in southern KS/MO. In January!

  • davidmcg

    Paltry rain, we would have liked here in McLouth. Instead overnight and early this morning we got 0.04″ of sprinkles, not what we needed. So, warm and humid means heat index, that will be another odd anomaly for the weather books this winter. Right now it is 43.7°F with a SSE wind of 9.0 gusting to 11.5, had a max gust of 20.0 at 9:13AM. Advanced farming is all that holding what wheat there is still together. But if we don’t start getting caught up or getting closer real soon, all the other crops and grasses, along with grass in our own yards will be all but lost. Really looking like this is going to be a really bad year for brush fires.

  • yewtrees

    Paltry rain? I thought we would get a more soaking rain based on what Gary predicted on Friday. “This system is pulling in a tremendous amount of moisture in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere from the Pacific Ocean.”

    • Theo

      See my reply to Gary’s #1 fan above.

      • Rock Hardon

        Theo,

        Guinness Book of World records has recognized that the “man crush” Mike has on Gary is the most intense expression of adulation and hero worship in the history of mankind.

        You will never be heard without prejudice or acknowledged in a open minded way when anything that you say disagrees with the subject of the infactuation.

        Sad but true

        • mowermike

          Hey Rock,

          Say what you want, but I’m not defending Gary on anything. I’m having a discussion with Theo and stating the facts to my argument of rainfall patterns.

          BTW, you two have it all mixed up, Jeff Penner is my #1.

          “You will never be heard without prejudice or acknowledged in a open minded way when anything that you say disagrees with the subject of the infactuation”

          This is simply not true. The conversation today has nothing to do with your statement.

        • Dobber

          Rock, I figured you were banned last time you posted. Guess I read into things to much?

    • Skylar

      If you read carefully, the official forecasts said that .1″-.7″ would be possible, even when the models were predicting some places getting 1″ or more. The NWS, for example was much more misleading in forecasting .25″-.5″ of rain through last night when Jeff had lowered it to .1″-.2″. or less. There is still a lot of moisture in the air, however very little of it was translated into precipitation this morning, unfortunately.

  • mowermike

    Theo,

    In closure of my winning case, please review “droughtmonitor.unl.edu”. This will show that the areas in discussion were in just as bad of a drought over the summer as KC. How in the world did they come up with all that moisture in the last 90 days if it was a lack of moisture availiable in the atmosphere due to dry grounds? Rainfall patterns is the answer.

    The proof is right there on the maps to prove your argument wrong.

    You still think that .50 inches of rain is better then 6″of slow melting snow given our soil conditions currently? I’m not arguing same amount, my arguent was what is better for our soil now. The answer is 6″ of snow.

    Hey, I respect your opinions and yes you clearly know more about weather then I do, but you can’t be right all the time.

  • f00dl3

    Also have to remember that in the Hadley cell moisture is transported as far north as 30N latitude in the upper levels, and then sinks back down equatorial. During the winter months the Jet Stream dips further south, upper level lows caught in the jetstream occasionally dip below 35N. When this happens, I imagine these upper level lows interact with the moist air aloft and kick up Hadley cell modified air into our Ferrel cell circulation pattern.

  • mowermike

    Theo,
    The NWS posted this in their morning discussion:

    “A strong cold front will dive southeastward through the region on
    Tuesday, bringing a decent chance of thunderstorms to the area,
    especially across the southeastern half of the CWA. Dewpoints
    creeping up to the 60 degree F mark, MUCAPE values in the 500-1000
    J/kg range, and 0-6 km bulk shear in excess of 50 kts could spell a
    shot at severe weather for the east central into the southern
    Plains, but will likely only clip the our CWA due to the timing of
    frontal passage and the limited time to build decent instability
    prior. However, if timing of this system slows at all, Tuesday
    afternoon could be fairly active in the southeast corner of the
    forecast area”

    This further explains my argument, timing of fronts and where the moisture crashes with the frontal boundary. Should this slow by 100 miles, are you saying that the going forecast for heavy rains to our south and east would not develop here in KC because of our dry grounds which limit our moisture in the atmosphere?

    Rainfall patterns……

    • I think you and Theo should write up a paper on the subject and submit it to Gary for grading. Be sure to have footnotes numbered with where you found the facts and the source of those facts. Gary can post about which paper was the better paper.

  • Skylar

    The 18z NAM had the heavy thunderstorms forming just southeast of the city, with .5″-1″ possible. If the front would slow down just a tiny bit we’d get some decent rains, although it’s hard to be optimistic after what we got from this “storm”.

    “http://1.usa.gov/VqCOMe”

  • RickMckc

    I don’t understand why Theo gets to be so snarky and call people a dufus without at least a keyboard slap.

  • f00dl3

    7-day is messed up again.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Any chance of frozen precip on the backside of this last system? That possibility of frozen precip on the 30 th made its way back on the GFS

  • mattmaisch

    Well, certainly the 18Z GFS looks a little different for Tuesday/Wednesday. Latest model shows accumulating snow in KC and significant snow just off to the north and east of the city. Something to watch at least..

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013012718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075″

  • HeatMiser

    This weather, like last winter, is boring boring boring boring BORING BORING BORING BORING!!!!!

    Wake me up when a storm of any significance is coming our way. By the way, if we don’t get any significant storms in February will you accept the fact that we don’t have the technology to forecast that far ahead?

  • Kcchamps

    latest 18z GFS has SNOW for us on Wednesday!

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_69HR.gif”

    shows 2-4″ for the metro

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    zoomed in look at the 18z GFS snow map

  • I have seen you post these totals before Mr. Kcchamps only to see them disappear it gets closer to the day. Don’t get me wrong I want the moisture I just don’t see 2-4 inches of snow coming our way.

  • rred95

    Jeff sure downplayed the chance of snow for tue/wed on 5 news, he said 10% chance and didnt say anything about accumlations. maybe he didnt have the new data or is going with the “when in drought leave it out” forcast.

  • Dobber

    Every time it has snowed this year, it has taken the meteorologists by surprise. It seems like it pops up 3 days ahead of time. never really shows up on the long ranger. Hears to 1 inch Wednesday!

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The model shows a nice snow. At least te 18z like every has stated. This showed up as a storm for us a week back but fell off until this latest run. I would say give it at least 3 more runs before we start taking any significance to it.

    Maybe the mets are getting a little gunshot at predicting amounts now that they have been off the past few weeks. It’s hot hard to forecast cold dry and warming trend and dry.

  • Dobber

    What’s gonna happen?

  • Kcchamps

    latest GFS has no snow for us on Wednesday

  • Dobber

    Ok, it’s not gonna do it then, thanks champs

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Lets wait one more model and then make a call. I liked the setup in the previous model. Not sure why the next one showed us only with flurries if that.

    Sometimes I think the models are put out by ying and yang they are fighting over what to say cause they are opposite on alternating runs.

  • Skylar

    What is the record warm low for this morning? I don’t think a low of 60 degrees in January is a common occurrence.