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Periods of Showers Today

Good Saturday bloggers,

As we were pretty much expecting we avoided severe weather on Friday.  It was not warm enough and the surface low and warm front were not only weak, but well out west.  This is why the tornadoes were confined to central and western Kansas.  The storm system responsible for this weather is spinning over northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska as I write this on Saturday morning.  There are waves of showers rotating around this system and it will take until 2-3 PM for the storm to be far enough away to end our rain chances.  This will not be a washout of a day, but the rain will be off and on into the early afternoon.

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NOON SATURDAY: The showers will still be around, but on  a decreasing trend.  A cold front will be pushing through, so our high will be reached around noon-2 PM in the low 60s.  Then, temperatures will drop to the 50s with north winds 10-20 mph.

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7 PM SATURDAY: The rain is over and the low clouds will remain with north winds 10-20 mph and temperatures falling through the 50s.

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NOON SUNDAY: Drier air will flow in from the northeast.  This will scour the clouds out, making for a nice Sunday afternoon with highs in the low 60s.

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Our next storm system will likely track across southern Kansas and southern Missouri Monday and Tuesday, bringing us just some clouds.  There is a 10% chance it comes far enough north to bring us some rain.  After that system we are in for a week of great Spring weather.  Highs will reach the 70s Thursday and Friday and perhaps the 80s next weekend.  This is perfect timing for the huge 4 game series between the Royals and Tigers.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Monitoring severe potential for tonight

As we get set to kick off the weekend, we’ll have to keep eyes on the radar tonight. As many know by now, there is a chance for some stronger thunderstorms later today which may spawn some severe weather. The good news (for some) is that the latest information is indicating that threat may stay West of Metro KC.

The 8am update from the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the “bullseye” area more to the West.
Setup This week
Of course, severe weather does not abide by a meteorologist’s forecast and will kinda do what it wants. So we must still keep our eyes open for storms that bubble up outside of the target zone. Generally speaking, here is an idea of what to expect today.
Weather Timeline

Guidance has been a bit shifty. We’ve seen this before…. the latest trends are keeping the strongest storms to our West, but still bringing in some heavy rain after about 10pm. I feel confident in saying that heavy rain will likely be accompanied by some thunder/lightning as well. There will likely be some areas of heavy rain too.
Our latest version of Powercast (which features the RPM model) depicts this setup at 9pm.
RPM1

And then this setup by about 1am.
RPM2

Based on what I have seen, this would be a general idea of timing for thunderstorms (not severe weather, just t-storms) across the area tonight.
T-Storm Timing

When it comes to the risk types, I still believe straight-line wind will be something to watch for. Gusts near 60mph would not surprise me. There may be some hail near 1″ (quarter size) in some of the storms. I cannot rule out a storm or two producing slightly larger hail in our area.
The overall tornado threat is not looking all that great, but this time of year, never say never.
Severe Weather Tracker

This is a good day to remain weather aware and keep tabs on changing conditions. The one big thing today is the sun. The less sun, the less chance we have of bigtime severe weather in KC. Our team will continue to monitor and we’ll keep you updated. Remember this is interactive radar on our web page at KSHB.com/weather.
-JD

The ever changing weather pattern

Good late evening, or early morning bloggers,

Severe Weather Risk Increases Friday

Thursday looks like another nice day, but with increasing clouds. A storm system is approaching Kansas City, but just like what happened during the winter, and so far in most of our storm systems this spring, the systems weaken at the upper levels and become disorganized. As we stated in our winter forecast, Kansas City is not in the right spot.  It makes it quite frustrating for those of us trying to forecast the weather, and for those of us trying to enjoy the weather experience.  We only had 14 inches of snow this past winter, and so far we are still lagging behind average on rainfall for the year.

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This total compared to average is from KCI Airport.  There are other parts of the KC metro area that have had just barely enough, but a good soaking rainfall would be welcome. At this time of the year, the good soaking rains often come at a sacrifice. That sacrifice is usually in the form of severe weather with  large hail, damaging winds, or worse, the tornado.  Tornadoes are so rare that many of us have never seen one before. Jeff Penner has lived here his entire life and in 44 years he has yet to see a tornado.  Another sacrifice can be too much rain, and then we end up with flooding. Flooding has not even been a factor yet this season in any of our storm systems.

The storm system approaching the plains now is looking rather similar to others we have had this year.  There are two storm systems that we will be tracking in the next few days.  The lead storm has the potential to produce our best chance of severe weather thus far in this rather quiet season. The second storm will likely leave us in the colder air and it may track south of KC.  Let’s start with this first one approaching our area now.

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The models have been all over the place with solutions for Friday’s storm system.  It looks very different than it looked like on Monday, but now we are within 24 to 36 hours of this storm arriving.  This one model, one of our in-house models, shows a couple of strong thunderstorms forecast to develop just east of that warm front over the western plains tonight.  This same model then organizes these thunderstorms into a line of thunderstorms approaching our area early Friday morning:

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There is a chance that thunderstorms form in the right spot, and then ride our way early Friday, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in it.  And, then, how will it set up Friday morning?

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In the upper levels of the atmosphere everything is really all over the place. There are two upper level highs over the far northern latitudes, with one near the North Pole, and another one near the southern tip of Greenland as you can see above. There is yet another deep upper low over New England. There is split flow over the northern Pacific Ocean with a storm forming near the Pacific Northwest coast, and there is our weakening system ejecting out of the southwest Thursday night into Friday.

How is this reflected at the surface? Take a look at this surface forecast map valid at 7 AM Friday:

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Where is the warm front?  The latest data that is now coming in overnight has a better defined warm front, and as a result look at this solution for Friday evening:

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This would imply some pretty strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.  This set-up has some similarities to the one that was our big moderate risk bust a few weeks ago.  So, let’s see how it really sets up.  As of 7 AM, here is the outlook for tomorrow from the SPC:

day2otlk_0600“SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL…WIND DAMAGE AND SOME

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

…CNTRL AND ERN KS/WRN MO/NERN OK…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WRN KS. A
WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL TO ERN KS
AND INTO SRN MO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN ECNTRL KS AND SWD ALONG A DRYLINE
ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN OK. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS ERN KS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO WRN MO DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AT EMPORIA KS FOR 00Z/SAT
SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS SERN KS…LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS…LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO THE
COUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS…A STRONG TORNADO WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SE KS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE HAILSTONES OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A
ENHANCED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD OCCUR AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
MOVES INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO DURING THE EVENING.

There are uncertainties. We recommend everyone to pay close attention to how this evolves on Friday.  We will go over all of the details in-depth during our weathercasts today and tonight!  Have a great day!

Gary

Slight Risk To Our South Today

Good morning bloggers,

High pressure is building in today. The weather looks outstanding, but cool as we go into the last home game of this successful home stand for the Kansas City Royals. Expect light winds and temperatures in the middle 50s for that first pitch.  A front has stalled near the Red River Valley along the Oklahoma/Texas border and this will be the breeding ground for a few severe thunderstorms today.  There is a storm system near the Southern California coast that will weaken and move our way by Friday.  This will bring a good chance of thunderstorms to our area, but it is still quite uncertain as to the severe weather risk. It should begin to sort itself out today.

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Here is the risk for today.  This severe weather risk is oriented near the stationary front:

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What’s next? A storm system on Friday with a set-up that is still evolving. A storm system is going to eject out of the southwest in this high amplitude flow. It will be followed by a second, and possibly stronger, storm system early next week. Kansas City is, as usual, in one of the more difficult places to forecast the weather with this set up.

Gary

This Weeks Amplifying Weather Pattern

Bloggers,

While the Kansas City Royals get to 10-3, a 130 win pace, our weather is about to be influenced by a big amplification in the overall pattern.  Here is a graphic I am showing on the 10 PM newscast tonight, Monday night:

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Look at all of the features:  The split over the eastern Pacific, the huge high amplitude rideg over the western half of Canada, the upper low near the Great Laked, the upper ridge just south of Greenland, and the upper low off the Southern California coast.  Cool shots of air will continue to rotate around the Great Lakes upper low, and Tuesday is likely going to be our nicest day:

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The weather for Tuesday night will be nice out at the ball park.

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We are just now beginning to get into the groove of our new weather graphics system.  I vow to have the most in-depth meteorological weather forecasts every night, when the weather allows us to. This year’s pattern has been a tough one to describe.  Let us know what you think of these graphics.

Have a great day, and we will look into the end of the week storm in our next blog.

Gary

Cooling to start the week

Like bubble gum in your system, that stranded area of low pressure took its sweet time but is finally passing through the area. As it exits, it’s giving us one last round of showers and a few rumbles of thunder.
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I expect this to push through our Southern counties through about 8pm. There could be a couple small showers that develop near the Metro later this evening, but I do not see those amounting to much. And once we get to about 10pm, we should be dry across the area.

Going into Monday, we’ve got cooler air that will spill in to the area. Lows will be in the 40s tonight and then despite sunshine, we’ll only top out near 60° on Monday. At least it will be a dry day. It will also be windy on Monday.
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Small chances for rain return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, it looks spotty and nothing too organized is jumping out of the latest guidance. We’ll have to play the wait and see game, which isn’t fun since the Royals will be playing those two days.
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Speaking of the Royals, here is an idea of what to expect tomorrow as the Twins come to town. Plan for a cool, windy game.
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One more thing to share with you is a great sunrise picture from this morning that I captured. Check this out.
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And what a day it was at Kauffman Stadium! Wow.

I’ll keep my eyes on the radar tonight and provide any updates if needed. Otherwise, we’ll continue to watch the lawns and trees green up with each drop of rain we pick up.

-JD

One more round of rain this weekend

Someone upstairs was bowling strikes this morning… some pretty good window rattlers as thunderstorms moved through the Metro this morning. It also caused some ponding of water on some roadways and the spray from other vehicles made travel a little troublesome at times. Now, this evening, the rain is gone just in time for our evening events.
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If you are headed to the game tonight, this is what I’m thinking:
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Rainfall numbers in the last 24 hours were a little spread out.
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There has been some question and concern about the radar activity ongoing  in Central Kansas tonight. At this point, I do not see that having a huge impact on us. Perhaps by 2 or 3am we see some leftover move into the area. By then, it will have lost some steam and should only be spotty showers and rumbles.
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Indications for Sunday are that we could see a few small breaks in the clouds, allowing some sunshine. If/where that happens, we could set the stage for some slightly stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon to evening. Before I get ahead of myself, I know many will want to know what to expect for the Sunday Royals game. I really  think we’ll luck out again and get the game in. Now while I’d love to say with all kinds of confidence that it will be dry the whole time, but part of me has to allow for a few sprinkles. I do feel we’ll make it through dry, but just know we have that chance.
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Sunday night could bring some stronger storms to the area, but the overall threat for severe weather appears to be low. We will, of course, keep eyes on it and give you updates.

Some bullet points looking ahead:
*Monday should be a nice day, but a little cool. No rain expected.
*I cannot rule out a few showers on Tuesday & Wednesday but we’ll stay mild
*We keep those spotty rain chances going to close out the week. Nothing looks set in stone, but it’s that’s time of year!

Let’s root for the Royals to get another win tonight!
-JD

Rain & Thunderstorms In The Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

There are some big changes taking place in the weather pattern during the next seven to ten days. Suddenly, we have been getting some badly needed rain, although we still need a lot more. There is a pretty good chance that we will have above average rainfall during the next two weeks as we go into the wettest time of the year, and I am expecting a wet second half of May after a drier first half of next month.  So, this second half of April is important for our soil moisture.  Right now, there is a cut-off low, weather person’s woe, spinning around over the four corner states.

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The upper low, as of 1 PM today, will be spinning per the Colorado/New Mexico border.  The main jet stream, as seen above, is tracking across Canada. Look at the dip over western Canada. That is the beginning of a series of waves that will dive southeast and end up picking up the cut-off low:

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Look at what happens to that big upper low. It literally becomes a weak disturbance over southeastern Kansas by Sunday evening. I tracked the upper low over the next 48 hours, and this is what’s left of it by 7 PM Sunday.  There will be a good chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms as the upper low gets picked up. Rainfall amounts will be likely in the 1/2″ range at the minimum to over 2″ of rain in a few spots between now and Sunday night.

After this goes by, something happens to the pattern that hasn’t quite materialized all year.  Take a look at the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation:

NAO April 17

The NAO and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are forecast to into the negative territory by the middle of next week. This will likely be the biggest dip into negative territory all season, since October.  When the AO and NAO go into negative territory it implies that there is a good chance of blocking developing at high latitudes, and look at what is forecast to happen later next week:

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An upper level high height area is forecast to develop over southern Greenland.  This is going to be part of a likely blocking pattern, and a storm will likely get caught diving southeast into the southwestern United States. This pattern will produce some severe weather set-ups later next week, some cold air surging south to near KC, and likely some good chances of heavy rain in our area. Let’s see how it sets up.

Have a great day. Let’s hope there aren’t any showers and thunderstorms this evening. We are the official meteorologists for the Kansas City Royals, and they are back home for a big Friday night game. The first three games had all kinds of weather issues for our team to forecast, and we have another series of weather forecast problems to sort out this weekend. We will be monitoring it closely. You can follow me on twitter and I will provide updates if anything is heading our way. My twitter handle is glezak. It’s FRIDAY!

Gary

A break from the rain, for now

The focal point of our forecast is a finicky area of low pressure that has become stranded in Western Colorado. Perhaps it missed a connecting flight, that’s happened to me before…
I digress.

This is the area in question and as the loop shows, the counterclockwise swirl is easy to spot.
CO Loop
Ah, the ol’ “weatherman’s woe”.

Because of that cutoff low, various little pieces of energy are going to be flung out and head this way.  Combined with a little bit of moisture in place, it could be enough to generate some hit and miss showers in the region over the next couple days.
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Based on the newest information, however, it appears the better chances for rain will stay West of Kansas City for Thursday and most of Friday. That said, by Friday night, the little system will start to wobble out of the Rockies and drift toward KC. This will help to boost our chances for rain.
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As it stands now, I don’t think we’ll have a threat of a rain out for the Royals game Friday night. Could there be a sprinkle or two? Perhaps. The newest indications are that this system will take its sweet time to progress Eastward, so that will delay the timing on rain. Let’s hope it slows down even more, right?

Once we get into Sunday, that thing pulls away and our rain chances fall down again. Between now and then, we should warm up nicely. Especially if we can get enough sunshine on Thursday/Friday.
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Overall, we’re in luck because we’re getting some needed rainfall without severe weather; that’s always a plus.
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I’ll be in again Thursday covering for Gary. Of course, there will be more new information and we’ll fine-tune the forecast as needed.

Enjoy your evening,
-JD

A Small System and a Bigger One

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

We are now tracking two weather systems.  The first is for later tonight and Wednesday.  This is a small one and is now located over Oklahoma.  There are areas of light rain associated with this system.  Tonight and Wednesday this system will be heading north, spreading the thick clouds and showers our way.

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630 AM WEDNESDAY: You can see areas of light rain moving through.  They will be moving from south to north and will likely impact the morning rush hour.  Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

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3 PM WEDNESDAY: The rain will be pretty much over with a leftover thick overcast and highs struggling to reach 60°

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FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: As you can see this is a light event with amounts mostly between .05″ to .15″.

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The bigger storm is due in on Friday.  There are many questions with this storm.  Will it last one day or three days?  Will we see much rain at all, as what will the track be? There are many events this weekend, such as the return home of the best team in baseball.  The Royals and A’s play all weekend and the Friday night game may be sold out.  Also, America Ninja Warrior is going on Friday night at Union Station.  The KC film fest is going on this weekend as well.

Since there is much uncertainty at this time, let’s not panic on the ruining of outdoor activities.  The rain could move in Friday and be over by Friday night.  Or, if the storm goes on for three days it will not rain every hour.  So, let’s see what it looks like the next few days.

 

Have a great night and Wednesday.

Jeff