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Winter looking to make an arrival

A Merry Christmas eve to you and yours! All things considered, another great December day across the area. Highs today were in the 50s, well above where we should be for this time of year.
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We have a couple more in store, but the cold air is knocking on the door. As you can see, it was a bit colder in Nebraska and Iowa.

Those with plans to travel Christmas Day, it shouldn’t be too bad. The Christmas forecast for Kansas City remains mild.
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But moving toward the weekend, things do start to change. Here is the generally overview of what to expect on Saturday.
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And then for those traveling on Sunday.
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I think we have a chance for rain on Saturday, but it appears to stay to the South of KC (as it looks today). In any event, the bigger storm that will need to be watched will be in Western Texas on Sunday.
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Based on the latest forecast guidance, it could still take a few possible tracks. Even shifting just 100 miles or so, it could have great impacts on *if* snow falls in the greater Metro area, and how much.
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The window for snow to fall opens up for us around Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Based on the latest guidance I’ve seen, I think the area in blue has a chance for snow by Monday.
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But again, there are several variables that will likely change, so we have to continue to monitor what the atmosphere does between now and Sunday morning.

Doing a quick check of the guidance, let’s see what each one is spitting out for snowfall amounts by 10pm Monday. We’ll start with the GFS:
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Then the Euro:
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At this point, it’s too early to get indications from guidance like the NAM, RPM, & others. So, I think it’s wise to play this loosely. As you can easily see, there is not much agreement from the two major models. Well, you could argue that KC would see about 2-4″ of snowfall based on these two pieces of guidance.

No need to zero in and try to make a “hero forecast” at this point. We still have more time to watch the information roll in and fine-tune what to expect. For now, I would go with saying there is a chance for snow. But that does not mean it will happen, or happen for everyone. Moreover, it’s far too early to give it descriptors such as “massive” or “historic”. And if the temperature happens to be just a few degrees warmer, this could all come down as rain instead.
My approach is to never overhype a storm. After all, how many times already this season have we been promised snow that never showed up? And models like the GFS have been very aggressive days ahead, only to completely chance at the last minute.
Let’s take it a day at a time and see how this unfolds.

In the meantime, I wish you a Merry Christmas!
-JD

Christmas Eve Thoughts

Good evening or early morning bloggers,

It’s Christmas Eve! I hope everyone has a great holiday and a Happy New Year. I am supposed to be taking a long and nice vacation ending on big Monday with the #3 ranked Sooners in basketball, not football, taking on the #2 ranked KU Jayhawks on January 4th. Will I have to race back into town on Sunday night because I don’t want to miss a big storm?  Well, let’s hang on here for a minute.  This storm is way out there. Take a look at where it was at 10 PM Wednesday night:

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This is a big piece of the energy that will begin carving out the big weekend storm. The snowflake contest may very well come to an end Saturday night or on Monday. The past few storm systems have been taking some favorable tracks for snow in our area, but thus far it has just been too warm. How will this one set up? Again, that energy is still off the west coast. Let’s see how the models trend tomorrow. I will be blogging on my vacation on Weather2020.com as we track this exciting weather pattern and share it in a non troll environment over there. Participate if you would like for a very small fee. That system has been working well and we have grown and had some great participation.

There is a weak disturbance that will rapidly move across our area on Christmas Eve. Again, it is so close to producing some snow, and I wouldn’t be shocked if there are a few snowflakes or some sleet mixed with rain showers Thursday.  Have a  Merry Christmas. I am heading to Las Vegas to cash in my World Series $50 ticket. Thank you Royals!!!

Gary

Huge Weekend Storm Right After Christmas

Good evening bloggers,

A major storm system, that very well become a major winter storm for Kansas City, is in the weekend forecast and topping our weather story tonight and then as Christmas weekend approaches.  One model run so far has taken a more wintry look for KC, but it is way too early to believe that a solution of the storm tracking to our south, like this one below, will happen:

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Either way, it appears we are heading into another very heavy rainfall event. This storm is going to form to our west, drop towards Mexico, and then lift northeast our way. This has to result in record rainfall amounts for Arkansas. Kansas City will be in on the wet storm and the only way we have lower rainfall totals is if it takes a farther south track, and if that happens we may actually have a chance of freezing rain or snow.  Look at these rainfall totals forecast for Saturday through Monday.

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And, now look at this snowfall forecast:

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This storm is likely going to produce excessive snowfall totals somewhere. The track and strength of the storm, and the amount of cold air are still very uncertain. We will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

Gary

Rain, Thunderstorms, Where’s The Snow?

Good evening or early morning bloggers,

Early in the morning on Monday it was 57 degrees and there were thunderstorms. This was at 2 AM. The rest of the day turned colder with temperatures falling to near freezing.  32 degrees is 11 degrees above our average low temperature.  57 degrees is 18 degrees above our average high temperature and Tuesday, it’s right back up again. This is a fascinating weather pattern with many disturbances about to affect us in the next week. I will blog about this in-depth on the Weather2020.com blog as this next big storm is part of the cycling pattern that brought us some very wet weather in November. We are going back into that part of the pattern. If you remember, early on in the season we just couldn’t break the ice, and then suddenly it started producing and we have had tremendous amounts of rain. I doubt it will continue to always be rain as we move through the winter season, but we will see as it is a warm pattern. A chance of snow could surprise us early on Christmas Eve. Let’s take a look at the next three days:

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The top map shows Tuesday’s set up with over a foot of snow likely in the Colorado ski resorts. We will have another warm up in KC.  The second map shows Wednesday’s storm system that will produce anywhere from 0.01″ to 0.30″ of rain Wednesday morning. And, then the  third map shows rain heading our way Thursday morning. It’s the type of disturbance that should be snow and not rain, sol let’s watch it closely.  And, then this fourth map is the Monday morning output from the European model.  That’s a lot of rain, but way too early to pin down exact totals. It’s fun to look at though.

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Have a great day.

Gary

Unseasonable Warmth and Three Storm Systems

Good Sunday bloggers,

This Sunday morning, the last full day of fall, is 25 degrees above average.  This has been the story of the this 2015-16 cold season.  Lows this morning were in the 40s to near 50.  Winter begins at 10:48 PM Monday.  You would never know by the current weather pattern.

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We are tracking 3 storm systems the next 7-10 days.  The first storm arrives tonight.  So, lets go through the time line.

3 PM SUNDAY: It will be dry, windy and mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.  The average high is 39°.

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8-9 PM SUNDAY: Showers will begin forming as a storm system and front approach.  Temperatures will still be in the 50s.

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3-4 AM MONDAY:  A weak cold front for December will be moving in.  Temperatures will be in the 50s ahead of this front with areas of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.  Rainfall amounts may reach trace-.25″.

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8 AM MONDAY: The front and storm system will be moving away.  Temperatures will be in the 30s, likely above freezing, so black ice should not be an issue.  The clouds will linger through the morning, clearing during the afternoon.  Tomorrow’s highs will be near 40°, more like it should be.  Winter begins at 10:48 PM Monday.  You would never know by the current weather pattern.

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Now lets discuss the next 2 storm systems.  Tomorrow the storm system from tonight will be racing through the Midwest.   Storm #2 will be entering the Rockies.

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WEDNESDAY:  Storm #2 will be moving across the middle part of the USA.  It looks like we will have a chance of more rain, from our region east.  There will be a patch of snow across the upper Midwest.  Is there any chance this snow could affect us?  The chance is under 5%.  The storm needs to be stronger and further south.  Also, there is so much mild, Pacific air around making it quite difficult to produce snow.  Storm #3 will be entering the western USA.

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CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY: It looks dry these days with highs in the 40s to near 50°, still mild.  the third storm system will be dropping into the western USA.  We will have to watch this one closely for the end of next weekend or New Years week.  It has potential to be a wet storm with rain or rain to ice/snow.  We will know more in the coming days.

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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Jeff

Christmas Week Weather

Good Saturday bloggers,

This morning we dropped to 25°, which is only the 6th time we have done that so far this season.  Last year we had been 25° or lower 25 times.  In 2011 we reached lows of 25° or lower 19 times.  What is amazing, is that was the year we had 3.9″ of snow.  This  really has been a mild cold season.  It shows no sign of ending.

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Let’s get into the forecast.

TODAY:  We will have full sunshine and an increasing south wind as high pressure drifts to the Tennessee Valley.  Highs will rise well into the 40s.

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SUNDAY MORNING:  Clouds will rapidly increase later tonight as moisture gets drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak storm system.  Since it will be cloudy and we will have south winds 15-25 mph, lows will be 10-20 degrees warmer than they were Saturday morning.  Also, the lows in the upper 30s to low 40s is where we should be for an average high.

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SUNDAY PM-MONDAY AM: A cold front will move through Sunday night.  Temperatures will be in the 50s ahead of this front and we may see a few rain showers as well.  Amounts will be trace-.10″.  This is a weak front, so that by Monday morning lows will be in the 30s, likely above freezing, which takes away any black ice concerns.  We will keep an eye on this.

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CHRISTMAS WEEK (WEDNESDAY): We will be tracking 2 storm systems.  The first will be racing east across the middle of the USA along I-80.  This system will generate snow across the northern Plains and upper Midwest.  The Pacific Northwest will be stormy all week long with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the southeast..  The middle of the USA will have few travel issues.

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CHRISTMAS DAY:  The main areas of stormy weather will be across the western USA and southeast USA.  Otherwise, the rest of the USA look calm.  The storm system in the western USA will head out into the Plains next weekend.  It has potential to be a significant storm system December 26-29.  This storm may bring our area rain, or rain to ice/snow.  We will know more in the coming days.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Weekend Weather Thoughts

Good Friday Evening bloggers,

Weather Time-Line:

  • Saturday:  Sunny with an increasing south wind later in the day. High:  48°
  • Sunday:  Increasing clouds. Becoming cloudy with a 60% chance of showers later in the day. High: 49° Warming up to 52° at night.
  • Monday through Wednesday: Nothing too big going on. Temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s
  • Christmas Eve & Christmas Day:  A period of clouds. There is a very slight chance of rain or snow showers. Highs mostly in the 40s
  • December 26th – 28th: A major winter storm forms. Kansas City may be in it’s direct path, or it could track south of here. This storm may finally end the snowflake contest

A Lake-Effect Snow Warning is in effect in the usual favored locations on the Great Lakes, but here in KC we continue to wait until our first snow. We have not had even one tenth of an inch of snow yet. Well, there is a storm showing up, and it is one we made a forecast for in our winter forecast. If you remember, we predicted one big storm between Christmas and New Years, and it appears that it will show up right on schedule:

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Now, will it target Kansas City? Will it be too warm again? The well respected European model has a foot of snow in KC, at least on Friday morning’s model run. The models will be all over the place. So, as usual, let’s see how it sets up.

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The pressure gradient will be tightening up, and south winds will draw in just a little bit of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  By Sunday afternoon we are going to be tracking a fast moving disturbance aloft that will help produce a band of rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm Sunday evening.  This will not be a wet storm, but some spots could see up to 0.20″ of rain. Most areas will likely experience much less than that.

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The cold front will sweep across Sunday night, and Monday will be colder. So, where is the snow? Look for it possibly as early as late next weekend. There is the LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index) that will kick in as I head west to Las Vegas for five days on Christmas Day. I am blogging every morning on Weather2020.com in a troll free environment. The discussion has been educational and it is a fun experience. Yes, we do charge $1.99/month on that blog, but I believe it is well worth it as we continue to grow.  And, by the way, our 12 weeks of forecasts are now available on the 1Weather app available on IPhones and IPads, and also on Android devices where we have 12 million downloads. Did you know that 25,000 people a day are experiencing our 12-week forecasts now.

Have a great Saturday.  We will keep you updated as this big storm approaches in a week.

Gary

Acting Like December

Good Wednesday bloggers,

A cold front swept through last night and a more typical December air mass is moving in.  The milder air as of Wednesday morning is now pushing east of the Mississippi river.

9 AM WEDNESDAY:

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DECEMBER HIGHS:  We have seen one day with highs below average.  Today the high was set at midnight, 48°, so even though the afternoon temperature is below average, it goes down as a day with an above average high.  Thursday and Friday will see highs below average before another huge warm up arrives.

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THURSDAY: A system that we targeted that could produce our first one inch of snow, moves through on Thursday.  It is simply too weak, so we will see lots of clouds and perhaps a flurry.  Highs tomorrow will struggle to 35°.

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THIS WEEKEND: Look at the pattern by Sunday.  The flow is from wet to east and the cold air is blasted away by another warm air mass.  We could see highs near 60° by Sunday.

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There is a storm system around Christmas.  We have our eyes on it for the chance of a White Christmas.  The data is different with every run, every 6 hours.

Have a great day.

Jeff

A Much Warmer Late Fall, Early Winter

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Have you been thinking this has been a much warmer start to the cold season than the last few years?  I am sure the thought has crossed your mind.  Well, if you said yes, you are right.  Look at these statistics.

LOWS 25° OR LOWER FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER: Note, the 2013 and 2014 days are counts for the entire month.  We have had only 3 lows 25° or lower as opposed to 33 in 2013 and 25 in 2014.  If lows the rest of this month were 25° or lower we would still not catch 2014.

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LOWS 32° OR LOWER: How about just official freezes?  We have had 15 freezes this season so far, as opposed to 44 the last two years.  We are about to have 3 days with lows 25° or lower, but it warms right back up this weekend.

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3 PM TUESDAY: The sun is increasing from south to north.  By 3 PM, a warm front will be surging through.  Highs will range from near 60° south to the 40s north.  A snowstorm will rage over western Nebraska.

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WEDNESDAY AM RUSH HOUR: A cold front will move through overnight, so that by Wednesday morning it will be clear, cold and breezy with lows in the 30s.  Tomorrow will see periods of clouds with highs struggling back to 40°.

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THURSDAY: A disturbance will come in from the northwest.  It was this system that we though could produce our first snow.  It will not quite have enough strength.  We will see lots of clouds, perhaps a flurry, but that is it.  Highs will be in the 30s with lows in the 20s.

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WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: The colder air will stick around through Saturday morning as a deep trough is located over the middle part of the USA.  Then, this weekend, the warmer air to the southwest will come surging in.

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We continue to watch 2 storm systems.  One is around Christmas, the other is around New Years.  There are still many question with these systems.  They may be rain or rain changing to snow/ice.  We will have more in the coming days.

 

Jeff

 

More Like December…For A Few Days

Good Monday bloggers,

The wet storm is moving away and the next one is already on the way.  There were a few snowflakes this morning in far northwest Missouri, including Maryville.

The weekend storm is now racing towards the Great Lakes.  The next storm is now in the southwest USA.  This storm is going to track north of our region, bringing a snowstorm to parts of Nebraska and South Dakota.

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TUESDAY AM RUSH HOUR: The next storm will be heading into the Plains.  We will be cloudy as a warm front approaches.  Lows tomorrow morning will be in the 30s with some mist.  The snowstorm will be getting its act together across western Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The warm front surges north and temperatures will jump to 55°-60° in most areas, 40s in northern Missouri along with a brisk south wind.  A snowstorm will be ongoing in Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming and Colorado.  Then, Tuesday night, the cold front in central Kansas Tuesday afternoon, will sweep through.

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WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: A trough will form over the middle of the USA.  This will allow a seasonal air mass to pour south.  So, highs in our area will be in the 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.  However, it is short lived as by the weekend strong south winds will take us to 55°-60° by Sunday.

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We will be tracking a smaller storm system early next week that could bring rain and a bigger storm for around Christmas.  This could be all rain or rain to snow/ice.  We will have more on this in the coming days.  A White Christmas?

Jeff