As risk of severe weather in the area tonight. It has been awhile since we’ve had to tackle thunderstorms. Here is the latest outlook from the SPC as of 3pm:
Activity has already begun to fester across central Kansas this afternoon. It will continue to develop and move to the East through the evening.
As of 3:15p, a severe thunderstorm watch is already in place for parts of Kansas
I would not be surprised to see an extension to the South and East later on this evening as the line pushes that direction.
The biggest threat for our viewing area will be strong wind gusts (over 50mph) and the potential for flash flooding in some areas. This would be associated with the strongest thunderstorms. In general, many will experience heavy rain and a good amount of thunder and lightning, but the strongest of storms will bring the threat of the high wind, small hail, and flash flooding. The chance of large hail (over 1″) and tornadoes appears to be low. That does not mean zero, it just means the odds are low.
So to sum most of that up, this is what to expect tonight:
As for timing, based on the latest guidance, this is a rough idea of when the initial line of storms will move through. It’s that initial line that should have the most “bite” to it. That said, this does not appear to be a huge severe weather event.
Latest guidance on how much rain we may see shows that not everyone will get a good drink.
As I always say, use a map like this with caution. This is based on one run, of one forecast model. All it takes is a single storm to linger of an area for an extra 15 minutes and the rainfall amount will change drastically.
Lingering light rain activity can be expected through very early Saturday morning. The system will quickly depart the area, taking the bigger rain and storms with it. Our weekend is looking great, after a cloudy start on Saturday.
The dew points are going to drop dramatically, so do not expect it to be humid outside. Saturday will wind up being a little breezy, but that looks to be about the worst of it.
Those heading to the K tonight (or out for high school football) should keep eyes on the radar and have a way to get alerts when they are issued. The longer your event goes beyond 9pm in KC, the higher of a chance for rain you will have.
If you are attending an event on the Kansas side, that timeframe would be a little sooner. Here again, be prepared and ready. This is snapshot from one of our computer forecast models at 9pm tonight:
To the takeaway from this: if you live on the Kansas side, it will be rocking and rolling sooner than the Missouri side. And as the system slides to the East, it will begin to lose a little of its punch. Which is why the Kansas side as the higher risk for severe weather than the bulk of the Missouri side.
We will keep you updated on air, and across our various digital platforms (Twitter, Facebook, our website). Stay safe tonight and then enjoy the beautiful weekend ahead.
Hopefully your yard gets the rain it needs and the Royals pick up another “W” tonight!
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Good morning bloggers,
Weather Forecast Time-Line:
- Friday morning: An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, but most areas will likely be dry. Temperatures in the 70s
- Friday afternoon: Again, an isolated and brief shower or thunderstorm is possible with temperatures warming into the lower 90s
- Friday night: Thunderstorms likely. A 100% chance of thunderstorms with cooler air moving in by Saturday
These long nights with the Olympics on NBC have been hitting my sleep schedule hard. I hope you have been enjoying the Olympics as it certainly has been exciting. The closing ceremony is on Sunday night. Between now and then the weather is going to get a bit exciting. Take a look at this:
The red hot Kansas City Royals are hosting the Minnesota Twins on Friday night in the big town. The latest data is trending right in this direction, on the map you can see above. Those are thunderstorms forecast to be near KCI Airport by 9:30 PM. This timing may be just slow enough to get the game in, and the Friday night football games debuting at the Missouri High Schools. But, what if it speeds up just a bit. It is something we will be monitoring closely. Here is a map one hour later:
This one shows the thunderstorms right smack over the K. The games are usually over by this time. We will try to time this out for you on our weathercasts. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main severe weather risk type.
It will likely hit 90 again today as the 90s take the lead over the 80s this summer:
Have a great start to Friday. I will be blogging on Weather2020 as I do every day. We are sharing extremely important technology with the LRC on that site and this storm fits perfectly in this years pattern. It’s just fascinating and we have a lot of things in the works we will be sharing with you this fall.
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Today was a typical mid August day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along with abundant sunshine. There is actually a chance of a few thunderstorms later tonight, but if you are hoping for a great rain on your yard or farm, this is not the weather event for you.
There is a small disturbance in southeast Nebraska that will head into northern Missouri tonight before it falls apart.
Here is what some of the latest data shows.
1 AM WEDNESDAY: There are scattered showers and thunderstorms in northwest Missouri with a few in eastern Kansas.
4 AM WEDNESDAY: You can see as this thing moves southeast, the rain is decreasing in coverage.
7 AM WEDNESDAY: The rain goes poof! So, this whole thing is not much to write home about. Hopefully, you get a nice downpour after midnight. The rest of tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs around 90°.
Thursday will be dry with highs around 90° as well. Then, a cold front moves through later Friday into Saturday. This will bring the area a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, but there will be holes in the activity. So, not all areas will get a good rainfall. Right now, the minimum rainfall may be targeting KC again.
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Today was a rather rare August day with a thick high overcast and some cumulus clouds as an upper level storm moved by. This made for a rare August sky, but what is even more odd, is that there was no rain from this system. The rain is falling hundreds of miles east of the main circulation. What a weird season.
MONDAY: This is an interesting scene from KCI. There is no wind as you can see a near perfect reflection of the trees on the water. There is also a thick overcast with no rain in sight. So, when do we have a rain chance?
RAINFALL CHANCES: There is little to no chance of rain Tuesday-Thursday as highs reach the upper 80s to low and mid 90s. A cold front approaches Friday, moves through Friday night and exits Saturday. This is our next decent chance of rain. It would be nice if all locations could see at least .25″ to 1.00″.
Have a great week.
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Chiefs football is back, the #RallyMantis has left us, and the Olympics are hitting their stride. What a week! Let’s talk a little weather. The video blog is down just a bit more, but for those who like text, let’s chat for a few:
We had some hot days this week, getting close to 100° again at KCI. But… we just couldn’t do it. Downtown was a different story.
Here again, I strong believe the higher dew points were the main reason. Had we had dew points even 2-3 degrees lower, KCI could have tagged the century mark.
All of that is moot now, as the dew points have dropped off today. How far? You’ll have to check out the video blog!
The other huge story is the massive rainfall going on in Louisiana. Wow.
There are indications some major moisture is headed toward the St. Louis area over the next couple of days. Heads up if you or someone you know is headed that direction.
For us here at home, it will shape up to be a tranquil week. The weekend, however, could be a different story. But let’s not put the ol’ cart before the horse just yet! Make the most of today and tomorrow and cheer on our KC teams!
Oh, I have a fear the Royals may have another rain delay tonight. Again, I touch on that in the video blog above.
Have a nice weekend!
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We are in for some great weather this weekend as highs reach the 80s along with abundant sunshine and lower humidity. We had a cold front go through Friday, but the rain did what so many events have done for the last month, weaken and/or fall apart as it moved through. So, we are left still needing rain. Here are some rainfall statistics around the city for the last month.
All locations are dry across the metro, but Johnson county is the bulls eye of dry with many locations seeing less than 1″ of rain since July 13th. So, there is a wet system that will affect Missouri the next 3 days, but western Missouri is not one of the locaions. The next chance of rain for western Missouri is in about a week. At least temperatures will be moderate with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Let’s take a look at this wet system.
The system has been producing flooding across Louisiana. It will begin it’s trek north into southern Missouri Sunday, exiting Tuesday.
RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-TUESDAY: It is the tale of two states. We will see no rain with locations along and south of I-44 possible seeing as much as 10″! It is too bad we cannot take some of that rain and push it west.
Enjoy the great weather.
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It is another day and another day where widespread rain is hard to come by. We had a few thunderstorms Tuesday evening north of the “K”, and today we have a few thunderstorms around Smithville. So, there are some lucky yards and farms, but rainfall coverage is low. There will be a few thunderstorms around tonight, but again coverage is low.
Here is a radar image from 350 PM Wednesday. The only thunderstorm in the metro area is around Smithville.
WEDNESDAY EVENING RADAR: There are three areas of thunderstorms in the region. One is across northeast Missouri and has no chance of affecting our weather. There is the small area of thunderstorms around Smithville. This will likely stay a small area and head north. The third area is located over southeast Kansas which is in association with the disturbance we were looking at yesterday in the Texas panhandle. This area has a chance of moving in this evening, so we have the chance of a few thunderstorms, but the chance of widespread rain is low.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: This is our best chance of a widespread rain during the next 5-7 days as a cold front moves through. This front will be associated with a disturbance coming in from the southwest. However, the latest data is trending towards the band of rain and thunderstorms to be going through a transition as it moves by. So, the best rain would fall northwest and southeast of our area. It is really incredible what is going on. Now that being said, this is not set in stone, but do not hold your breath for a widespread rain. Let’s hope the latest data is wrong. If this rain does not come through we will have a better chance August 20-31 as next week looks mostly dry.
Have a great rest of your week.
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4:45 PM UPDATE:
There is a weak boundary drifting south across KC. And one thunderstorm has formed just north of the “K”. It is drifting east. The next few hours an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible on that boundary as it drifts south into the south side of KC.
There are parts of the KC metro that have not seen a decent rain event since July 13th, and one of them is Overland Park, There have been countless areas of thunderstorms during the last three weeks that have either missed Johnson county by one county or dissipated before it arrives, or weakens considerably as it moves across the county. So, this is why the rain statistics below are the way they are.
There have been about 5 days of measurable rain with total amounts under .50″. Average for the time period July 14-August 9 is 3.24″.
Well ,there is a chance of rain Wednesday as a disturbance comes in from the southwest monsoon. The flow aloft is from southwest to northeast and this is pulling from the southwest monsoon, where there are disturbance meandering about.
Here is a close up satellite picture of a disturbance that emanated from the southwest monsoon yesterday that is now located over the Texas panhandle. It is slowly heading this way and some computer data has this moving through Wednesday with more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. It is unlikely we will see a widespread event, but there could very well be downpours in the area. It could affect most of Wednesday. There is more moisture behind this that could bring some rain Wednesday night.
FRIDAY: If the rain from the disturbance misses your yard or farm, there is another chance Friday as a cold front arrives and a new southwest monsoon disturbance moves by. Hopefully, you will see the rain you need by Friday as it looks dry for 5-7 days after the Friday event.
Have a good night.
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There are still locations in Johnson and Wyandotte county that are looking for their first decent rain event since July 13th. Last night a large area of rain and thunderstorms tracked to the south, clipping southern Johnson county. The rest of Monday has looked like rain, but very little has occurred. There are a few showers south of the KC metro and a few of these may be around this evening. These locations had a nice downpour early Monday.
TUESDAY: A warm front that has been to our south and generating some large areas of rain and thunderstorms will be moving through Tuesday. However, there is not much upper level energy and no decent disturbances aloft, so the coverage of thunderstorms with this front appears low tonight into Tuesday. Of course this happens, because that means KC would be in line for a nice rain event. It is what it is and we will still be waiting for a decent rain event. Wednesday and Thursday are looking mostly dry, hot and humid with highs 90°-95°.
JAVIER: There is a tropical storm affecting Baja the next few days with mostly heavy rain. Some of this moisture may get siphoned northeast into the Plains Friday-Saturday as a cold front moves southeast. So, maybe this will be the moment when the dry areas get a decent rain.
Have a great night.
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Well here comes some rain. This area of rain and thunderstorms is trying to do what its predecessors have been doing, and that is fall apart as it approaches. Now, that being said, this cluster of rain and thunderstorms will hold together long enough to bring most locations at least .10″ to 1.00″ of rain. Remember, there are locations across Wyandotte, Johnson and northern Miami county that have not seen a widespread rain since July 13th. Today appears to be that day, but the amounts may be a bit lower than is needed.
SUNDAY 7 AM: Here is the state of the area of rain and thunderstorms. It is breaking apart, but it is associated with a disturbance that should keep some of the rain alive into the afternoon.
SUNDAY 7 AM: Here is a close up version of the radar. The heavy downpours are trying to head into the driest areas. Let’s hope nothing goes wrong again.
TONIGHT-MONDAY: After this area of rain moves by, there will be a warm front across northern Oklahoma. New thunderstorms will likely form down there. Some will try to drift north into our area later tonight into Monday morning.
Have a great day.
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