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Sunday afternoon update

Nothing major to report this afternoon. We’ve enjoyed a mostly sunny sky across the area. Despite that sunshine, our temperature CONTINUES to struggle to warm-up at KCI. I have noticed this a lot this year: on days where it should be warm; days with full-on sunshine, we still have a hard time getting the warmer readings.
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Obviously, you go a little more West and they are having no trouble at all. I cannot figure out what the problem is here. It’s sunny across the entire area…winds are out of the South/Southeast for all the areas (expect Manhattan). And maybe that’s it. I learned quickly that in the summer months across Kansas, as soon as the winds go to the Southwest, temps get cranking. So perhaps that’s the one ingredient we’re lacking in this weather cake: a SW wind.
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You can see the wall-to-wall sunshine across the area. I have also highlighted the smoke/haze that appears to still be lingering over parts of Missouri. That stems from those wildfires up in the Pacific NW and Canada.

As we go into the week ahead, it still appears we are on track to really warm up. I have, however, pulled highs back a bit for Monday. Why? As mentioned above, we just cannot seem to get the big heat in place. And since winds will still be out of the South Monday, I feel I need to undercut the forecast guidance.
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That said, this is not the full story. Our dewpoints will continue to climb and when we combine those surface temperatures with the dew points (in the 70s), we’ll wind up with some high heat index values. This is what it *feels* like to you body. Due to these expected high values, the NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for Monday and Tuesday.
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Make sure to drink plenty of water if you’ll be outside for long periods of time (working, exercising, playing), and please do not forget about children and pets.  They make not be able to tell you how hot they feel and this kind of heat can sneak up on them.
The good news here: there is some relief headed our way soon. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak cold front should pass through the area. This will knock temps back into the mid to upper 80s, plus give us that small chance for a few thunderstorms and showers.
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I don’t intend to burst any bubbles, but at this time, I am not seeing signs for widespread and meaningful rain from this. So my thought is: don’t plan to pick up significant rain. There will be some lucky areas that do see the rain, but I think they may be few and far between. It’s summer; it is supposed to be hot and dry. Great time to find a pool.

-JD

Summer Heat Arrives then Exits

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

I went to the pool on Saturday and it was just barely warm enough as we struggled to reach 80°.  Today we will rise to the mid to upper 80s, so it will be a better pool day than Saturday.  The thick haze may be playing a role in keeping us cooler than our forecasts.  The haze is from smoke at around 30,000 feet.  It arrived on northwest flow a few days ago from the Pacific northwest and northwest Canada where forest fires are raging.  Our flow aloft is now weak and the smoke seems to be stuck over our skies.  So, we will see how high the temperatures actually go the next few days.

Today through Tuesday will see an anticyclone (heat wave creator) build into the Plains from the southern Rockies.  The center of the upper level high will be over New Mexico and southwest Texas, so we will not feel the full affect of the heat.  Some summers the anticyclone dominates, but not this summer.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY

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Highs will be in the 90s Monday and Tuesday as the anticyclone builds in.  However, by Wednesday the anticyclone will retreat and the first of many cold fronts will be arriving.  Out highs will be back down to the 80s by Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

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We are still in the same pattern, so when the thunderstorm chances arrive, most likely we will be on the edge of the most significant rain.  We will see how this evolves.  We expect the cold fronts to keep coming into August, so no big heat waves in the forecast.

Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

Shed the sweaters & fire up the fans

For the first time in a long time, I am looking forward to seeing my electric bill next month. A whole week with highs in the 70s gave many A/Cs a break across the area. When it comes to saving money, many will be thankful for that. Then again, the money saved might go into offsetting the energy that will be used this coming week. Summer looks to finally wake up and return to the area. Before we start talking about that, let’s get a handle on what’s going on today.
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As expected, puffy cumulus clouds have formed around the greater KC area. No threat of rain from these clouds. Although I am sure at times it may look like it WANTS to rain. We won’t be that lucky today. And when it comes to temperatures, while it is a little warmer today, we’re still well below where we should be for this time of year.
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Kansas City *should* get above 80° today and that will be the first time that’s happened since last Sunday. Incredible to think about. We had five days in a row with highs below 80°…in middle July! That’s got to be some kind of a record, right? Well… no, not really. But it is a little rare.
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The last time we had five days in a row of highs less than 80° in July was back in 2004.  Before that, it happened in 1998. Of the other times in which we’ve had five days in a row below 80°, most happen toward the end of the month. That struck me as interesting. Is there some kind of decade pattern here? Tough to say.

Gary and I did some research the other day, and just looking at this year to last year, we have really gotten a break from the Summertime heat. The graphic below is for the month of July through the 18th of the month.
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But going back one year prior (2012) was the year we were scorching almost every day in July. In that year, we had 14 days of highs at or above 100°. We have yet to heat the century mark this year and it’s looking more and more like it may not happen. If I were a betting man, I’d guess we may touch 100° once, but very briefly (perhaps for one hour). Again, that’s just me free-thinking; not based off any kind of hard science or pattern.

With that said, we are moving more into a Summer-like setup across the area for the week ahead. A bit of a “ridge” in the atmosphere will setup over Kansas. This ridge, or bubble, in the atmosphere will basically allow us to heat up pretty quickly. What about rain? It does not appear to me that we’ll be under the center of this ridge, nor will it be that strong of a ridge. Sometimes in the summer (when I worked in Wichita) we’d call it a “death ridge” because the overall ridge in the atmosphere was so high and strong, there was no way any rain/storms would happen and we’d just sit there and cook all day.
In regards to this coming week, the KC area appears to be on the fringe of the ridge. I believe that will allow us a small chance for heat-of-the-day storms to develop (particularly) on Monday & Tuesday. These would be very isolated and it’d be like playing the Weather Lottery: many will hope and wish, but few will win.
Come Wednesday & Thursday, the ridge may lose some of its strength, this would allow us a better chance for rain & thunderstorms to form.
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Obviously, that’s still a few days away and things may still change as we get more into the week. What I do think will happen is an increase in the heat & humidity. As of today, this is how I see things playing out:
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Needless to say, the A/Cs will be working again this week. And those with pool plans, this should be perfect weather for you. As you make plans to be outside, drink plenty of water and be sure to stay away of signs of heat exhaustion.

Have a nice evening and I will see you tonight on 41 Action News.
-JD

Temperature Trend is Up

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

Did you notice the haze on Friday and again this morning?  This is smoke at about 30,000 feet from fires in northwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest.  The smoke came down on northwest flow, now it seems to be stuck or drifting around.  We will see if it drifts out, but the flow aloft is weak, so it will likely be in our sky for awhile.  Also, we will begin to pick up haze from the heat, humidity and stagnant air. So, it looks like a hazy few days.

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We have had 5 straight days with highs in the 70s!  It has not been very good pool weather.  This is about to change as an anticyclone expands north and east into the Plains.  The anticyclone is the opposite of a cyclone, a storm system.  We sometimes call the anticyclone the “heat wave creator”.  We will likely fall short of a heat wave as the center of the anticyclone stays to the west.  We will see highs in the low to mid 90s next week.

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Now, even though we may fall short of a heat wave, there is little chance of rain until the end of next week.  So, if you want to keep the lawn green, a day or two of sprinklers will be needed.  The good news is that more cold fronts and rain chances arrive at the end of next week and will last into August.

The warming trend begins today.  Here are maps of the highs today, Sunday and Monday.

HIGHS SATURDAY:  We will reach the low 80s

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HIGHS SUNDAY:

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HIGHS MONDAY:

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Enjoy the warmer summer weather and have a great weekend.

Jeff

 

Next Storm System, A Miss

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We broke a record low this morning for the second straight day.  We dropped to 55°, which broke the old record of 57° set in 1985.  A large Canadian surface high pressure has been in control.  The humidity has been low, so with the clear nights, temperatures are allowed to drop with good radiational cooling conditions.

The next two nights will not be clear and the surface high will be drifting away so our winds become light from the southeast.  The reason we are not going to have a clear sky that there is a storm system dropping southeast into western Nebraska from the northern Rockies.  This storm system will bring some great rainfall to the western and southern Plains.  They still need every drop.  Amounts will run .50″-2″ with some spots seeing 2″-5″.

MAP #1: Water vapor image from 11 AM Wednesday

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Based on all of the new data, this storm will track too far south and west of our area to bring much rain.  We will see lots of clouds Thursday and Friday.  We may see a brief shower Thursday night into Friday or perhaps some drizzle.  Thursday will see a thickening overcast, but should stay dry.  Friday is looking like a cloudy day with highs near 70 as the low level moisture from the storm to the south gets transported north.

Here is a break down of the weather for the next two days from our latest Powercast.

MAP #2: Thursday at 7 AM.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be occurring across Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, while we stay dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

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MAP #3: Thursday at 3 PM.  We are mostly cloudy as the rain continues from Wichita to Tulsa to Springfield.  Out highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, a nice day.

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MAP #4: Friday at 5 PM.  There is very little rain around, but the sky is mostly cloudy. It looks like it will be a low overcast and perhaps some drizzle.  So, Friday will struggle to reach 70°.

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If you are wondering when we will return to decent pool weather, (It needs to be 85° or higher and humid for me to swim!) it will be this weekend as highs reach the low 80s Saturday and near 90° on Sunday.

One other issue.  Since, we are missing this wet storm, there is not much rain in the forecast for the next 7-10 days.  So, if you want to keep your yard green, you will need the sprinklers.

Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff

A Montana Storm Has Our Attention

Good evening bloggers,

There is a storm spinning in Montana, as you can see on this Water Vapor Satellite picture from 4:16 PM Tuesday.  The models are all handling this system in their own ways and the solutions vary widely.  This storm is forecast to move southeast across Kansas Thursday and then turn east.  How will it impact our area?

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The latest NAM model has another new solution, but still has some rain sneaking into the south side of Kansas City. We have a tough forecast ahead of us and Kalee will begin with an update at 4:30 AM.

Gary

A record-setting morning

Good morning Bloggers,

Let me start by asking how are you liking these refreshing and cool temperatures this morning?

Preliminary reports show that we broke two records this morning, one at KCI and Lawrence. At KCI, the low temperature bottomed out at 54° and in Lawrence temperatures bottomed out to 53°.

Here are the previous records for a few areas:

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After this cool morning we are in store a cool and sunny afternoon.

Temps will continue to stay below average.

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High pressure will stay over the region today and into tomorrow.  Therefore, cool nights and cool days will continue.

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Enjoy the next fall-like temperatures, because we warm back up this weekend and into early next week.

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Have a great day!

Michelle

www.twitter.com/MichelleApon

 

Welcome Fall to July

Good Morning Bloggers!

We have a great morning with sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Now the strong cold front we have been talking about for several days is dipping south into northern Missouri.  Here is a look at the surface map:

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Showers and thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of the front as it sinks to the south.  We are already seeing showers and thunderstorms in NW MO/NE KS right now.  This is a still shot of ESP Live radar as of 8 AM:

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We will watch to see if this rain continues as it pushes south towards the Kansas City metro area.  It looks like the showers and thunderstorms will be dropping into the KC Metro area by around noon and here is a still shot of our Powercast at about 10 AM  and it is mainly along and north of I-70.  Rainfall totals from today won’t be much with a half inch being the most in the rain gauge.

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Temperatures are tricky today because of the rain chance this afternoon.  We will warm up quickly until noon and then we will drop when the rain moves into the area.  Here is a look at the hour by hour forecast I put together.  If we see the rain then our temperatures will drop to the upper 60s or lower 70s for the early afternoon and then once the rain moves out we will warm up a little bit.

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Then welcome Fall! Tomorrow morning you may need a jacket as you head off to work in the morning.  Temperatures will start off in the lower 50s and could be we break a record?  We will have to wait and see!

Have a great day!

Kalee Dionne

 

So-long Summer…

Cold front moved through the area last night, as expected. It sure did take its sweet time though. That said, radar estimate indicated some areas with 2.50″ to 3.00″ of rainfall (I saw this near the Maryville area). The official reports via the NWS, indicate much smaller values.
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As usual, your backyard measuring device will likely vary just a bit. And no, not everyone got nice, meaningful rain. There will be some areas with cracks in the ground still or dry birdbaths. Ain’t nobody walking this planet that can change that, so all we can do is hope for the next rain chance. Which, oddly enough, is just around the corner.

Here this evening, we have a few smaller thunderstorms ongoing to the South of the Metro, thanks to the lingering cold front.
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These storms will continue to move to the East as the evening rolls on. I do not see a threat for rain or thunderstorms in Kansas City. Any outdoor plans you have should be just fine.

A second cold front is advancing to the area as we speak. I expect this to clear the Nebraska/Kansas state line by 7am Monday morning. As it does, there is a chance we see a few storms bubble up along the Iowa/Missouri line. Those would be to the North and Northeast of the Chillicothe area.
By the afternoon, that front will slowly drop South and should be over the Metro area around midday.
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Once the front goes through, you’ll know it! So-long to Summer. The humidity should start to decrease and you’ll likely “feel” the air get cooler. Through the evening Monday, temps will drop pretty fast and by the time we get to Tuesday morning, it will be a world of difference for us.
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Sleep with the windows open Monday night, but have a blanket nearby; you may need it. Matter of fact, we will likely set or tie a few record lows Tuesday morning. There are four locations to keep eyes on, two in particular.
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One just happens to be Kansas City, how about that? We are forecast a low Tuesday morning of 53°. If that happens, it would beat out the record of 56° from 1990. Incredible. But it also goes to show that this stuff does happen.

Enjoy your Sunday evening and be sure to catch the latest forecast tonight at 10p on 41 Action News.
-JD

Sunday Morning T-Storms & Cold Front #2

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

A band of showers and thunderstorms is tracking through the area this morning as cold front #1 moves through.  We could use the rain after the recent dry and hotter days.  Rainfall amounts are ranging from .05″ to .65″.

MAP #1: Radar from 725 AM Sunday

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This area of showers and thunderstorms will move off to the southeast and fall apart by noon.  So, it will be a dry, warm and humid this afternoon as this first cold front is a more typical summer front.

MAP #2: 3 PM Sunday

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Cold front #2 arrives Monday and this one is rather strong for July.  Temperatures will fall to near record or record lows behind this front.  There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front, but amounts will be a trace-.50″.

MAP #3: Noon Monday

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The front will blow through Monday, so that by evening it will be breezy as the cool blast arrives.  Temperatures will be in the 70s with the humidity dropping.

MAP #4: 7 PM Monday

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Lows Tuesday morning will drop to the low to mid 50s.  We are forecasting a low in KC of 54° which would tie a record set back in 1975. What a great break from the heat and humidity!

MAP #5: 7 AM Tuesday, Lows Forecast

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Lows will drop to the 40s across much of the corn belt.  This is a bit cool for the corn.  This is July, so the cool spell will moderate and end and after 2-3 days.

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Have a great day!

Jeff