10:45a Update Monday
Just for kicks and giggles, let’s update this post with the latest offering of the 12z model runs from today, shall we?
I noticed something interesting I wanted to share, so let’s get right to the juicy part of this steak: snowfall for Wednesday night.
While I cannot post the image, I can tell you the 12z RPM model almost mirrors the 00z Euro to a T. So, let’s look at the RPM!
The 12z Euro will not be available until about 1pm this afternoon. I’ll be curious to see if it keeps the snow in NE Missouri.
The trend is for this round of snow to get pushed off to our East. We’ll have to see if the guidance later today and tomorrow follows this trend. Given this season, it probably will!
Meanwhile, the latest 12z NAM places that blob of snow a lot more to the West; right over our area.
On the GFS, it sort of follows the NAM, but leans a bit toward the Euro/RPM solution.
The biggest takeaway here is that all the guidance suggests what we’ve been talking about: this will be another event where the amounts could be anywhere from a dusting to about two to three inches. It doesn’t look like a “monster” of a storm by any means and will probably get shunted to the East if the given trends continue. In any event, we’ll keep tabs on this as we step closer to Thursday morning.
Original entry – 6:30pm Sunday
The last time I saw this much back & forth I was at a $2.99 buffet in Vegas. The weather has almost been sort of like a buffet, with a little bit of something for everyone. And some of it turned out to be more bland than it appeared from afar!
At this point, about the only thing you can do is laugh a little. Otherwise, you’d go mad! Right? RIGHT??
Check out the highs for the last ten days in Kansas City.
Another note: in those ten days, we had four days of more than a trace of snowfall reported. Those tapping their foot and getting antsy for more snow (or at least that one “big” storm) will have a few chances as we close out the month of February.
Tonight, we will all suffer from chattering teeth as temperatures dip to near zero. While the wind won’t be all that strong—just 5 to 15mph—it will be enough to send our wind chill values to near -15° for a few hours Monday morning. Make sure you’ve got that exposed skin covered up!
Our yo-yo temperatures will continue for the first half of the week, going from 20s on Monday to middle 40s on Tuesday. Then, it’s back into the freezer yet again. I don’t know about you, but I think I’ve got freezer burn.
A snapshot of what’s ahead as we go through the next few days:
I can hear some of you smiling about Tuesday. Or maybe that’s Wednesday you’re excited for…
When it comes to the snowfall, there will be a little feature that slides through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This should drop some light snow across the region. Looking at the latest guidance, this won’t amount to much of anything, but here is the most likely area to see some form of snowfall from Wednesday night through early Thursday.
Try not to read too much into this graphic. Simply based on simulated radar & where the moisture will be (plus cold air), I would expect snow to show up on radar in this area from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Accumulating snow would only be spotty in that area; read on for more.
Both the Euro and the GFS are suggesting snow amounts for our greater KC area will be around a dusting to three inches at best. Obviously that’s an early figure and we’ll fine-tune it as we get closer to the middle of the week. Of course, what is par for the course this year is for snowfall numbers to decline as the event gets closer. So, it should be no real surprise if this doesn’t produce anything more than a generous dusting for some. We should call this season the year of the maids! … because dusting. Get it? …….moving on….
I’ll refrain from posting snowfall maps at this point since really the only one I can post is the GFS. By tomorrow, the NAM & RPM will be able to compute the data and provide their opinions. That will be a lot more helpful for us so let’s give it 24 more coo-coos.
Next weekend is already looking “interesting”, as we say. Once again we find ourselves looking at guidance that is split. Oh joy. The GFS side of life pushes a bubble of warm air into the area suggesting highs in the mid to upper 40s (direct output says 47 for KC on Sunday). It then slides moisture through Saturday night and all day Sunday. Given the temperature setup, this would look to be mostly a rain event for us. Although the GFS does suggest a couple inches of snowfall by Monday morning.
On the other side of the coin, the Euro is handing out snowfall like it’s candy–“here ya go”. It claims our high is only around freezing on Sunday. It brings a similar slug of moisture across the region but because of the temperature setup, it says we’re in for a decent little snow event. I’d be lying to you if I said the highest value showing up in our area was nine inches.
While I cannot post the European output, I can show you the Canadian model and the GFS model. The Canadian leans more toward the Euro solution, for what that’s worth.
This is the GFS simulated radar for Sunday afternoon:
As mentioned, it keep us in the warm air so the precip falls as rain.
The Canadian model Sunday afternoon:
Cold air in place, thus snow would be the precip type. Of course, you’ll notice the better bands of snow are being depicted more to the South.
Obviously, nothing is even close to set in stone and we’ll likely see the guidance shuffle back and forth like an iPod with only three songs on it. Until then, we have to get through each day, one by one. Which is the only way to do it if you really think about it.
Some have asked about when we may get a break in the cold air. A peek at the newest information says we’re stuck in a cold pattern through at least the first part of March. But there are signs of hope. Let’s check it out.
This is what the Euro model says we’ll be in for around the 3rd of March. It’s one of a few maps from the Euro that can be published freely. This is surface temperatures for Wednesday morning, March 4th.
And this is how the GFS sees it for that same day.
Basically: cold. Still. Brrrr. Blah.
There does appear to be an indication–especially from the GFS–that warmer air will try to nudge back into the Central Plains around middle of March. Here is how the computers handle it.
European model surface temperatures for Sunday the 8th of March:
The GFS opinion for the same day:
Notice the GFS is more aggressive on pushing that warm air into our neck of the woods. By then, the average temperature will 52° for Kansas City. Both models indicate we’ll be below average still by then. Figures, right?
At the end of the day, no computer model is ever always right and no model is always ever wrong. Well, unless you count the NGM. Which some know as the “No Good Model”. That one was put to rest a while ago, thankfully!
Spring is scheduled to begin in 25 days. But something tells me we might see one of these in three weeks.
Here’s to hoping whatever weather you like shows up outside your door this week. For now, I’ll be making plans to visit a buffet soon. Might as well, huh?
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