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Morning Thunderstorms Quickly Moving By

Good morning bloggers,

We have morning thunderstorms. They are elevated, but with a few heavy downpours.   The GFS and the HRRR did the best with this mornings thunderstorm activity, so these will be the models of choice in the next few days.  Here is a picture of Sunny the Weather Dog as the thunderstorms were forming. The bases were pretty high up,  around 10,000 feet. These high based thunderstorms were forming on the edge of the capping layer at around that level.

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After these morning thunderstorms move by, the potential for redevelopment is rather slim. The GFS model does have a few forming this evening. Again, this model is the only model that picked out this mornings activity the past few days, so we will see about the potential this evening near the front, but the HRRR has this:

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The SPC has minimal risks nationwide despite the interesting surface set up. The reason is the fact that the main storm is way out over the western states and it has thrown a ridge over the plains.

Have a great day. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Dry Fronts

Good morning bloggers,

The pattern looks like it should be wet, but instead it continues to be rather dry.  The chance of thunderstorms will increase a little bit after the weekend is over. Between now and then the chances are slight. Take a look at the KC sky this morning:

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These bands of higher and middle clouds, high level altostratus, around 14,000 feet above us this morning, indicate that it will be another dry day.  St. Joseph, MO has had 3.62″ of rain this year which is 38% of the average of 9.41″ by todays date.  The surface set up is rather incredible, when you realize the chance of thunderstorms is around 20% at best:

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This European Model above shows the dry fronts. Oh, there are areas of precipitation mostly over the higher terrain out west and across the northern plains and upper midwest. The region near the fronts, closer to KC, has very warm air aloft building in around 10,000 feet up and this will likely prevent thunderstorms from forming near the fronts.  By Sunday night and Monday the chances of thunderstorms may go up a bit.

Rainfall Forecast from the Euro Model: Next Ten Days

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Let’s see how this pattern evolves.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

It Will Likely Get Wet In The Next Few Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

A rather fascinating and unique spring pattern continues to affect the United States.  The pattern features a developing split flow aloft with the Polar jet stream tracking across southeastern Canada, and a southern branch jet stream carving out a trough over the southwestern United States.  Here is a forecast map valid Friday night:

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This would usually be a big severe weather set up producer, but we are in the part of the cycling pattern that has featured a storm in each cycle that fell apart and never came out with any strength. The same thing will happen in this cycle. That storm over northern Nevada will likely either spin out west and barely move, or drift farther west and south. This will place a ridging aloft over the plains states and likely limit the severe weather risk.  This pattern will also likely throw up a capping layer of warmer air aloft that will also limit the chance of thunderstorms over the dry areas from the Texas Panhandle northeast to KC.  This next map shows the surface forecast valid Friday evening:

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This is quite an interesting and unique set up for this time of the year. I know I have not quite ever seen anything like it with a front this strong and risks this low in mid-May, but it is what we have this year.  The SPC has placed this severe weather risk area near that front on Friday evening.

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We will continue to analyze this developing pattern as this sets up in the next few days.  What happens after this weekend is what has my attention.  The LRC sets up in October and then continues through September. We are in the same pattern that produced only 7.7″ of snow in KC all winter long.  The pattern will continue, but the winter version that kicked into gear in late October will be loosening its grip on our dry weather pattern, finally. Last year it got very wet in March and April after a dry winter. This year, it has yet to do so, but we see an opening, a chance that once the flow aloft weakens a bit more, this  pattern may actually begin producing more wide spread heavy rainfall in our area before summer gets here. If you remember, KC had 5″ of rain in the first few weeks of this pattern, in the first 30 days after summer ended and fall began.  I am expecting the last four to five weeks of spring before summer begins to get wet. The models are still fairly dry over the next seven days, but then something may let loose. Confidence is still shaky here, so let’s see how it all sets up. Either this will happen, or the drought will expand.  These next ten days will say a lot. The first half of these next ten days will continue to struggle in the rainfall production, despite so much going on all around us.

Rainfall Forecast Next Ten Days From The GFS Model:

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions by going over to the blog at Weather2020.com.

Gary

It Is Supposed To Rain 1.30″ Per Week In May

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City averages 5.23″ in May and 5.23″ in June.  The wettest 30 days of the year, on average, is from mid-May to mid-June.  We are entering this period of time now. This means that Kansas City should get around 1.30″ every week at this time of the year.  To get to that 1.30″ of rain in this second week of May, we will need a thunderstorm this evening. The chances of any significant thunderstorm activity over the next few days after today seems rather low at the moment.  Oh, there are chances, but this next storm will become positively tilted and stretch out, getting stuck back to the west until it weakens.  As a result we get this rainfall total forecast over the next seven days:

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Most of Kansas is in the under 1″ range.  One of the chances does arrive this evening:

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This chance of thunderstorms is between around 6 PM and 10 PM tonight, and then the chance shifts east. A storm approaching now goes from a positive tilt to a negative tilt as it passes by, and then the next storm drops into the west and gets stuck out there for a few days.  This is not good for our rain chances, or for the storm chasers out there.

Todays Video: In this video we look at this current system and the next one dropping into the west

The Morning Blog: May 8 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Dates For Severe Weather:

  • April 13-17: Verified
  • April 29-May 4:  Verified
  • Calmer Period May 4 – May 15
  • May 19-20: Forecast related to the April 3rd outbreak
  • End of May-early June: Forecasted

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day and check out the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Another Difficult Weather Pattern To Forecast Over The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

I hope everyone is having a great start to the week. The pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC.  We have been forecasting that the last third of the month  of May  has the best chance of being wetter near KC.  The part of the pattern that produced  the April 13-16 stormy period will be cycling back through near the end of the month.  The biggest outbreak of this pattern (the pattern begins in October and lasts through September) happened on April 3rd, and that part of the pattern is due in around the 20th of this month as well.  Between now and then there are some other systems that will potentially have a few severe weather risks, but they aren’t the bigger ones that have happened. We are in the forecast quieter period right now. There are a few chances in this next  7 days, however, but they are quite challenging to the weather forecaster. We will discuss each chance of thunderstorms as they show up from day to day.  Let’s begin today by looking at the past 90 days:

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The cold April really created the past 90-day anomalies to show up cold from Montana southeast to Missouri. The dry areas across Kansas continued despite some rain events that has caused the drought to contract a bit back over Kansas, across northwest Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle.  The same pattern has continued the struggle to produce consistent rains to end that drought, and this week will be another test.

Screen Shot 2018-05-07 at 7.08.20 AMThe European Model suddenly went into a rather dry forecast over these next ten days. While it appears to be a somewhat active pattern, the trend on most of the models has been a bit drier. This forecast map on the left shows the European Model rainfall forecast over the next ten days ending on May 17th.  Look closely at that pattern on this forecast rainfall map.  Now, compare it to what has happened over the past 90 days.  It’s as if the same pattern is continuing. Well, we know that it is because the same pattern that setup last fall is continuing to cycle today centered in the 47-48 day cycle range.  There are a few chances for thunderstorms in the next week across the plains. The most likely  areas that will have the heaviest rainfall will be all around the driest areas.  A few thunderstorms will sneak into the drought plagued region as well, so let’s see how each set up evolves.

This next map shows the zoomed in rainfall forecast from the same European Model:

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This forecast map shows spotty totals, fairly low 10-day rainfall totals over northeastern KS and northwestern MO, while at the same time there are higher totals just to the north and off to the east.

The SPC outlook for Tuesday:

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There is some potential for a few severe thunderstorms in this marginal risk area.  Given the time of the year, we will be monitoring this closely. The models have varied from having these thunderstorms form just west of KC, to having them form just east of KC.  Let’s see how this sets up tomorrow. Then next weekend is interesting, but the storm system is just not organizing properly; I mean it just isn’t looking that likely for KC to be in the right spot for thunderstorms despite a slow moving front in the area. We will analyze these set ups in the next few blogs, and on 41 Action News.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A rather calm and beautiful day. Expect a mostly sunny sky with light winds.  High:  81°
  • Tonight:  Mostly clear with a low in the upper 50s to near 60°
  • Tuesday:  Periods of clouds with a 30% chance of thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms will develop, but will they form north and east of KC, and thus miss us, or will they form overhead or just west. This is our big forecast challenge for tomorrow.  Expect southeast winds 10-20 mph. High:  81°
  • Wednesday:  A gorgeous spring day with west winds at 10 -20 mph. Mostly sunny with a high of 86°

Have a great day. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Increasing Thunderstorm Chances

Good Sunday bloggers,

We had a few showers overnight and now we are in for another nice and warm May day with highs in the 80s. We are in for a marvelous Monday with highs in the 70s. Then the pattern become more active as there will be chances of thunderstorms in the Plains practically every day Tuesday through next weekend. Let’s go through the week.

SUNDAY: It will be a warm day with highs in the 80s along with areas of clouds. A brief afternoon shower is not out of the question. A weak cold front will drift south this afternoon and we will feel the affects tonight and Monday. Lows tonight will drop to 50°-55°, making for a comfortable start to Monday.

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MONDAY: This will be a very nice day with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze from the east. Highs will be 75°-80°.

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TUESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: The pattern becomes more active as a series of disturbances and fronts track east out of the Rockies. The severe threat is lower this week than last week, but it is not zero and we will have to keep a close eye on each day’s set up. The first chance of thunderstorms arrives later Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially from the state line and points to the east.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A front may linger and new thunderstorms will be possible where this front sets up. Right now it looks like southeast Kansas and south Missouri.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Thursday looks calm. Then, Thursday night-Friday a new disturbance will bring thunderstorms to Nebraska. This cluster may stay north along I-80, but we will have to watch for a southeast turn.

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NEXT WEEKEND: A bigger storm system is looking more likely and this is where our severe weather chances will increase along with the chance of heavier rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This active pattern is coming in the nick of time. A drought extends from southern Iowa to the southwest Plains. If the pattern stays dry, then the drought will expand faster during the warm season as evaporation rates increase. If we see many rounds of thunderstorms, the drought disappears.

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Right now it looks like most of the region will see at least .50″ to 2.00″ of rain with some locations seeing up to 4.00″ of rain. The locations of the heavier rainfall totals is not set in stone as it depends on where the heavier part of the upcoming thunderstorm clusters track. Notice that there is not much rain for Oklahoma into Texas. So, perhaps we can lop off the northern part of the drought.

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Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Calmer Weather for a Few Days

Good Saturday bloggers,

The weather this weekend will be rather calm after the crazy week we just completed. This is good news as there are many outdoor events. There is a weak front due in Sunday and there are thunderstorm chances next week, but severe threats are low.

SATURDAY: We have a ton of events today. Let’s take a look at the forecast for most of them.

The Brookside Art fair has had to deal with many weather issues the last several years, but not in 2018. Any rain tomorrow will be brief and mostly during the morning.

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The Royals have a chance to win three in a row! They are also out of last place. The Royals have had to deal with some truly yucky weather this season, but not today. Remember it is a 3:15 PM start. Temperatures will rise to around 83° during the game, making it a bit warm in the sun.

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Sporting KC is in first place and they will have winning weather out at Children’s Mercy Park this evening. temperatures will drift down through the 70s along with a light wind.

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There is a pretty good size event today, not in Kansas City. The Kentucky Derby is in Louisville, KY with the start of the race at 5:34 PM. The weather for this event is not quite as nice as for the events in KC. There is a system that will track across Kentucky, but Louisville is on the northern edge. So, it looks like they will see periods of mostly light rain. The race is on 41 Action News with coverage starting at 1:30 PM.

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Now, if you do not have any events to go to, then you can do something that is not that fun. Which day is best to mow? Well, either day is good. It will be a bit warm in the sun today and any rain Sunday will be brief and mostly during the morning. So, take your pick.

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SATURDAY NIGHT: A weak front and disturbance will head south and this will bring more clouds and the chance for a few showers and T-Storms in northern Missouri. KC will have a near perfect evening.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The front and disturbance will be closer. So, the chance of a brief shower/T-Storm moves into KC.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The front and disturbance will drift by, so the chance of showers and T-Storms shifts east and our area will have increasing sunshine and highs around 80°.

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MONDAY-NEXT FRIDAY: There will be 2-4 chances of rain and thunderstorms as we track a series of disturbances and fronts from the Rockies. The flow aloft will be much weaker than last week and we are not dealing with a big storm system. So, the severe weather threat is quite low, but never zero. Rainfall will be in the .50″ to 2.00″ range. Some locations may see 2″-4″ of rain. This is good news as we need the rain and we are getting into the wettest time of year. We average about 1.30″ of rain per week in our area. The rain last week took KC from about 3.50″ of rain below average to about 2″ below average.  We are going to lose some ground before the next decent rain chance arrives Tuesday night.

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Have a great weekend and happy Cinco de Mayo!

Stay safe and please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff Penner

 

Four Tornadoes Wednesday Night

Good morning bloggers,

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This picture above is from Wednesday when Gerard Jebaily was about to experience, what has been called by storm chasers, “the tornado of the year” so far.  It was a large wall cloud that eventually touched down and grew to a likely 1/4 mile wide tornado, most likely with around 175 mph wind and an EF-3.  Gerard also took this picture of a large hail stone that did not hit Storm Tracker, thank goodness. He stayed out of the core of the storm.

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This next picture is when the tornado was touching down and about to grow, just north of Salina, KS.

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It has been quite the week.  After Tuesdays big day across central Kansas, we had Wednesday with many small tornadoes. At least four of them have been surveyed by the National Weather Service.  This first picture, I plotted from what the survey showed from the National Weather Service:

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There were at least four tornadoes. The survey continues today, so let’s see what comes up in their analysis.  The weather is calming down for a few days. We will look ahead into an interesting set up for Tuesday over the weekend.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Interesting Set Up For Today

Good morning bloggers,

Well, what can I say? It was a rather wild day for us in the weather and news business the past two days.  It began 190 days ago when we targeted this week to be a severe weather week and the LRC comes through with another absolutely incredibly accurate prediction emphasizing the cycling pattern. Then, the severe weather manifested itself earlier in the week when KSHB Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily tracked down an EF3 or stronger tornado over central Kansas. Storm chasers from around the world had a pretty good tornado chase on Tuesday.  Then, on Wednesday there was a moderate risk of severe weather targeting the KC region, and we had many tornado warnings. How many tornadoes? Well, that may be tough to know for certain, but the NWS will do their best to analyze the damage, mostly rather insignificant unless it was your house that had a tree land on it. The spin-ups were mostly “gustnado” types of tornadoes, or just straight line winds. It is a tough analysis for the NWS.  And, now today we have this set up, beginning with the surface conditions that are currently influenced by rain cooled air and morning thunderstorms:

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The models have many varying solutions, but I decided to plot this RUC model surface forecast valid at 8 PM the evening as the sun is about to set:

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Just as I finished plotting this, the SPC updated their map and it is falling in line with what I was analyzing:

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There is an area of rain and thunderstorms moving across the plains this morning and this may impact the conditions later, but we are uncertain at this moment. We have to see how this lines up. The most likely area for severe thunderstorms will be north and east of the surface low. This could end up in eastern Kansas if it warms up enough, or it could end up in Iowa as shown above. If it ends up in Iowa, the chance of severe weather near KC is much less. It is something we just don’t know for sure at the moment.

I am a bit wiped out this morning, but we will be ready to track this severe weather risk this evening if it does materialize.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Severe Weather Outbreak Is In Progress

Good evening bloggers,

Here is a rare evening update. I am in between segments on 41 Action News, and you can watch our coverage streaming in KSHB.com if we do have any extended coverage or during our newscasts. It isn’t too often we have such an organized severe weather event in progress as we do this afternoon, and it is taking aim on the KC viewing area. I have a few minutes to update you as the area is still out west, but heading this way. Let’s take a look.

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This is a rather large moderate risk area with Kansas City firmly in this risk. A moderate risk is issued when we are expecting more wide spread severe weather, and possibly more significant.  This has been turning into more of a line, but any thunderstorm along the line may be capable of severe weather. Remember a severe thunderstorm is defined to have 58 mph winds or stronger, hail 1″ in diameter or larger, or a tornado.

The surface map is similar to yesterdays set up with a few exceptions. And, the storm aloft is still sitting over the Four Corners states.  That system will eject out into the plains on Thursday, and more on that set up in a second.

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This set up is producing this radar image as of 4:44 PM:

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Let’s track this in tonight. As  you can see, as of 4:44 I have it timed for between 8 and 9 PM in KC.

The set up for Thursday needs to be monitored closely as well.  This is the risk as of this afternoon from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow.

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This Thursday set up is somewhat different from today.  Today’s activity may affect Thursdays set up, but likely not much. The main storm ejects out, and the surface will respond by tracking the entire storm surface cyclone northeast tomorrow. What am I saying? Well, let’s discuss tomorrow.

Track this with us on the Weather2020 blog. Have a great evening and stay safe. Pay close attention and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary