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Thunderstorms Likely Tonight

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We have a good chance of thunderstorms tonight with the chance for some damaging wind gusts.  They will be weakening as they move east.   Here is the time line:

NOW TO 8 PM: Scattered showers and windy, 70s

8 PM TO 2 AM: Round of widespread thunderstorms, some damaging wind gusts possible

2 AM TO 7 AM: The rain exits and it will be long gone by the Wednesday morning rush hour.  There may be some wet roads.

Here are more details on a video blog.

Have a great night.

Monday Weather Update…Changes This Week

Good Monday,

We have several chances of rain and thunderstorms starting later Tuesday and ending Friday.  We could see quite a bit of rain and some severe weather.  The best chance of severe weather Tuesday will be out in central Kansas.

Here is a video blog.

Have a great week

Jeff

Saturday Weather Update

Good Saturday bloggers,

I did a video blog.  Here is a quick synopsis.  Hurricane Matthew is a category 4 hurricane and is headed towards Jamaica.  The east of the USA needs to watch him closely for next week.  Our weather here in KC is calm.  We will have more clouds today and mostly northeast of KC where highs will be 65-70.  Areas from KC southwest will see highs 70-75 as there will be more sun.  A sprinkle is possible in northern Missouri.  Our next rain chance is later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Calm Weather for Awhile

Good Evening,

On Tuesday we rose to around 80°.  A cold front swept through early Wednesday, switched our winds to the north, and we are seeing highs in the 60s.  The warmer air has been pushed to the south.  This cool air will be around a few days then we are in for a weekend warm up.

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This front was sent south by a storm system in the Great Lakes that is now shifting south into the Midwest.  We will not see rain from this system, but some periods of clouds will be possible as they get sent back west.  We are basically in between the closed low to the east and the main jet stream well to the northwest.  The low is cut off from the main jet stream and will wander a bit through Saturday.  If it drifts far enough west, then we could see much more cloud cover Friday and Saturday.  As is, we will go for a sunnier forecast and a warm up to the 70s.  If there are more clouds it may take until Sunday to reach the 70s.

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SUNDAY-MONDAY: Look at the change from the upper level flow Wednesday (above) and the upper level flow for Sunday.  The jet stream to the west is diving south into the Rockies.  This will likely produce our next chance of thunderstorms by mid next week as the pattern undergoes a big change.  The upper level low to the east weakens and drifts back north.  We are still in between the two systems and will see a warm up to highs close to 80°.  As we go beyond this period there will be many changes in the pattern.  At this time, there is much uncertainty as to what is headed our way.

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There is something more certain.  We know the Chiefs play in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, right here in 41 Action News for Sunday Night Football in America.  It looks like the upper low will lift north just in time, so that Sunday evening will be dry and mild in Pittsburgh.

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TROPICAL TROUBLE: Tropical Storm Matthew has formed east of the Caribbean Sea.  He will likely intensify and move west into the Caribbean then head north and either affect the Gulf coast or east coast next week.  We will be hearing quite a bit more about this in the coming days.

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Jeff

Fantastic Fall Weather

Good Monday bloggers,

The fall weather has arrived and it will be here for several days.  A new cold front will move through early Wednesday without clouds or rain.  But, it will keep the great weather rolling along.

TUESDAY: It will be a few degrees warmer as we have a light west to southwest wind ahead of the next cold front.

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WEDNESDAY: The next front will race through from the north.  Our winds will be coming from the north around a storm system forming in the Great Lakes.  So, highs may not get out of the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.  The rain and clouds will be located from Illinois to the east coast.

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WEDNESDAY HIGHS:  These highs are with full sunshine!

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This great weather will last through the weekend with changes next week.  We will talk more about these in the coming days.

Have a great week

Jeff

Sunday Weather Update

Good Sunday bloggers,

We have had a rainy start to the day as a fall air mass moves out the summer heat and humidity.  The rain will end 11 am to 1 PM as the cold front moves through and out.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR: This area of rain has been weakening and will be dissipate 11 AM to 1 PM.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The much talked about cold front will move through midday, ending the rain and ending the steamy air.

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MONDAY MORNING: Lows by Monday morning will be in the 40s to near 50°.  It will feel quite a bit different than it has the past several days.

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The weather for the rest of the week looks great with abundant sunshine, highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Cold front bringing a few changes tonight

The first weekend of Fall is here and the only thing falling is the sweat from my forehead. How about yours?! Spent some time earlier today at the Plaza Art Fair with my wife, it got warm in a hurry! We did manage to chow down some good food and take in a little music before calling it a day. So today was a more Summer-like feel for sure. Sunday, well, Sunday is going to be a whole different season!

Check out the 4pm readings around the great area:
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Yep, it’s toasty. And, it’s pretty obvious there is something going on in the neighborhood. The party has already started with widespread (non-severe) thunderstorms in parts of Kansas. Check out the loop:
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The visible satellite image tells the bigger story, as the deck of clouds moves closer to the area this afternoon.
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Those clouds (and the rain) are also the reason it’s much cooler in Central KS right now.

Okay, the usual question here: “when is it going to hit my house???”
At this time, it appears the best window for rain and thunderstorms in KC will be after about 9pm. If you live more to the West of KC, it’ll be an hour or two sooner. More to the East? And hour or two later. In terms of North/South, that’s a little more tricky to spell out in text. But in general, the odds will keep going up as the night keeps going on.
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A snapshot of the latest computer guidance suggests this is what the radar may look like by about 10:30pm tonight. Hopefully this answers some questions:
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By then, the Plaza Art Fair will be wrapped up in KC for the night, however, the vendors need to make sure their items are secure and put away. Gusty wind and heavy rain is possible, and that could easily cause some problems for those folks. Hopefully they are reading the blog tonight!

The rain/storms will decrease in intensity as the night goes on. Showers may still linger on the Missouri side through early Sunday morning, perhaps even toward the mid-morning time frame. After that, the rain moves off to the East. So rainfall amounts may wind up being heavier on the Kansas side, thanks to the thunderstorms happening this evening.
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There may be some areas of flash flooding thanks to the heavy rain hitting the same areas over and over. Stay alert on the Kansas side and be mindful of any water over the roadways.

In terms of the big Chiefs game Sunday, you couldn’t ask for better football weather. Temperatures in the 70s with a little sunshine coming back.
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Not much different for Monday, we should keep the mild air and add in a little more sunshine thanks to High pressure off to our West.
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All-in-all, the most “active” time is going to be the next 12-18 hours. All we get from that is some rain and window-rattlers. And boy will those temps take a tumble.
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If you were not a fan of the heat and humidity today, you’re in for a much different setup on Sunday. Hopefully you can make the most of it!
And hey… how about that come-from-behind win by the Royals today!? I’ll take that!

Enjoy the evening,
-JD

A Big Weekend Weather Change

Good Saturday bloggers,

A cold front will move through early Sunday.  This will bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms tonight and Sunday morning.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening out ahead of the main area.  Temperatures by tomorrow afternoon may be in the low to mid 60s with a 10-20 mph northwest breeze.  The fall feel is around the corner.

Here is a video blog with the details.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

 

Fall Begins 9:21 AM Thursday

Good evening,

We remain in a hot and humid air mass as fall begins on Thursday.  A fall like change is showing up, but not until the second half of the weekend.  So, lets get into this.

At 9:21 AM on Thursday the sun will be shining directly on the equator as the Earth continues to tilt away from the sun as we head to winter.  Tomorrow we will have 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of night.

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THURSDAY: It will remain hot and humid as thunderstorms line up along a stalled front along and north of I-80.

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FRIDAY: The hot and humid air will remain in place as the stalled front lifts north as a warm front.  A new cold front, however, is on its way out of the Rockies.  Here comes the change.

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SATURDAY: A decent cold front will be on the way.  We will squeeze out one more hot and humid day.  The thunderstorms should not arrive until night, but we have to watch this closely as if it speeds up 6-12 hours then Saturday afternoon and evening plans could be affected.

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SUNDAY:  It is looking like this is the day it will feel like fall with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.  The heavier rain and thunderstorms will move off during the morning, but lingering clouds and showers will be possible.  If the heavier rain hangs on longer we could see temperatures barely in the 60s.  If the rain moves off faster and the sun peeks out we could see highs in the 70s.  We will know more as we get closer.

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Two more items.  The cirrus clouds outside are part of the moisture from what is left of Hurricane Paine that brought some great rain to southern California on Tuesday.  Second, there is much uncertainty for next week as a big upper low will try to form in the middle of the USA.  If it forms to the north we will be dry, breezy and cooler.  If it forms further south, then we could see quite a bit of rain and rather chilly weather.  The pattern is changing and the models are all over the place.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Rain from Paine

Good evening,

Hurricane Paine was a category 1 storm west of the Baja peninsula Monday.  It is now a tropical depression as it moves north into the southwest USA.  The moisture from Paine has become incorporated into some disturbances and is now bringing rain to the southern California deserts.  The high clouds outside your window here in KC are in association from the moisture from Paine.

You can see the cirrus clouds over KC are the northeast edge of the clouds from Paine.

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Here is a picture from Palm Springs, CA.  Usually it is 110° there during late September, but today it was in the low 70s with a nice and steady rain. The last measurable rain was May 17th, .02″.  They have had over .50″ as of the writing of this blog!

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The moisture from Paine plus disturbances in the southwest USA plus a front stalled near I-80 will bring some big rain and thunderstorms the next three days to the north of our area.

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Our next chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday as a new cold front and system approach.  It may start feeling like fall early next week.

Have a great night.

Jeff