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A break from the heat but not the rain

***Update 9pm***
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Just took a peek at the newest forecast information and I have to admit: I like what I’m seeing. That means: I *agree* with what it’s spitting out now. Previously, I was not too sold on the Powercast model. I felt it was not handling the overnight rain well (mainly because it said there wasn’t any!).
Now, the newest version is in. It shows the overnight rain…
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That rain should taper off by about midday. I still think many of us will get through the afternoon dry.

That said, I do still think we have to be on our toes for some afternoon pop-up showers and t-storms.
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Severe threat is still very low for Monday. That’s not to say we won’t get some good claps of thunder in the morning. Don’t be surprised if you jump a few times!
Stay with our weather team and we’ll keep you posted. Enjoy the rest of your night!
-JD

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Previous Entry
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I almost feel like I could copy a number of previous blog posts word-for-word and it would fit perfectly for tomorrow’s weather!
Before we get to that, let’s check the rearview mirror and see where we have been.

Rain & thunderstorms developed overnight into this morning right where they were supposed to: Northern Missouri. Also as anticipated, some hefty rainfall amount were realized in that same area.
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Of course, your backyard measuring device may vary just a bit.

At this point, I do not see anything new developing in our area this evening. But once we get into the overnight period, we could see a few showers try to develop. Based on the newest information, we may wind up dealing with rain Monday afternoon as well. But… I’m not 100% sold on that.

Latest powercast is persistent on bubbling up rain and a few thunderstorms after about 3pm Monday. Until then, it says we get nothing. I don’t buy that.
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It lingers that action in our area through about 8p before it finally slides off to the South.
My gut tells me that the model has the right idea (kinda), but the execution may be a little off. We saw this with the guidance yesterday. What this means is, just because the above image shows rain in Northeast Kansas at 5:30pm, I don’t think that placement is set in stone. Even the timing is suspect to me.

My thought: we’ll get some rain overnight into the early morning hours of Monday. It will move from West to East across the area. Heavy rain pockets would not surprise me at all.
Then showers should linger in the mid-morning before another round could try to develop in the mid-afternoon. Those could wind up being very hit and miss. I’d be concerned about flooding in a few locales, simply due to the amount of water we’ve seen over the last couple of days.
I do think we shake the rain by the evening. So for the Royals game, I do NOT believe we’ll have a washout. More on that in a second.

A flash flood watch is in place for overnight tonight into Monday to account for those areas already dealing with the soggy sod.
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I think that will be our biggest concern overall Monday: flooding. The overall severe weather threat is low… no organized hail/wind/tornado outbreaks are expected tonight or Monday.

Checking the ol’ water gauge for KCI, we’re getting close to hitting the average value for July.
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If it’s any consolation prize, we should get a break from the heat and high humidity as we start the week. We’ll be about three to seven degrees below average.
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I am sure many will be heading out to watch the Royals take on the Pirates tomorrow night. I have to allow for the chance of rain for the first part of the game, but at this time, I do not believe we’re in for a washout. That said, I will be at the game myself, so should we get a long rain delay, you can blame me in person!
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Quickly looking ahead: I think we see more rain for Wednesday night into Thursday and then spotty chances for Friday-Sunday. The heat will return as well by the end of the week. If you drink the GFS Kool-Aid, it’s going to be blazing hot by next weekend. That model claims we’ll see highs around 101 both days. I’m not sold on that yet. The other medium-range model, the Euro, says we have morning showers Sat/Sun and highs only in the middle 90s to upper 80s. That seems to fit the overall pattern we’ve dealt with this season so I’d lean that way.

In the meantime, plan for some more rain on Monday. Seems we cannot go more than two or three days tops without some rain in the area!
-JD

More Thunderstorms…Shocked?

Good Sunday bloggers,

Once again we track thunderstorms.  This morning they extend from central Illinois to western Kansas, along and north of I-70.  These areas DO NOT need rain as some locations in northern Missouri this week, southeast of Maryville around Stanberry, saw 8-10″ of rain.  There are locations south of I-70, especially on the KS side that could use a drink of water for the lawn.  This current round may clip south of I-70 with some rain around noon as the main disturbance passes by.  New thunderstorms are likely later tonight.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR, 7 AM: You can see the large area of rain and thunderstorms.  It will be mostly north of I-70, but of you look southeast of Hays there are showers extending south.  This will be moving through our area around noon and may bring southern locations some rain.  The heaviest stays north in water logged areas.

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY-MONDAY: The flash flood watch goes into Monday as a new round of heavy thunderstorms are likely later tonight.

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SET UP TONIGHT-MONDAY:  A weak front will stall to our south as a new disturbance comes out of the Rockies.  This will likely generate new thunderstorms across western Kansas.  These have a better chance of tracking a bit further south, but many of the same areas will get hot again.  After this round it looks dry on Tuesday as a weak surface high pressure builds in.  Then, Wednesday-Thursday will see new thunderstorms as a warm front returns.  Remember, we can’t go more than 2 days without thunderstorms.

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Remember, if you encounter any flowing water, “Turn Around Don’t Drown.”

Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

More rainfall on the way Sunday & Monday

Heat index readings - have you followed JD on Twitter yet? @jdrudd

Heat index at 5pm Saturday

I feel like we’ve done this before…
Rain moved through the area this morning and dumped some decent amounts in a couple areas.
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During the midday program Friday, I mentioned that we’d likely see more clouds than sunshine for today, thus holding back temperatures a bit. That part panned out, but the rain was not progged to be there. However, as I have said before, this seems to be the year of “any excuse will do” in order for it to rain.

That said… prepare for more morning rain on Sunday and again on Monday. It’s all thanks to a slow-moving cold front that has setup shop over the area. It’s not out of the question that a stray thunderstorm tries to develop this evening, but it would be isolated and have to develop before sunset. After that, I think the odds are against something firing up. Things will change by Sunday morning, though…

Our Powercast models picks up on rain & t-storms for tomorrow morning.
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Like we’ve seen before this year, if we get enough rain and cloud cover in the morning, that would limit our chances for redevelopment in the afternoon. Powercast says the afternoon is dry.
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In a bit of supporting news, the Storm Prediction Center has *removed* our area from the “Slight Risk” they had in place previously.
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I do still think it’s possible we get some stronger cells that dump some very heavy rain and produce some high wind gusts.

Looking ahead into Monday, I think we’re in the same boat: more morning rain and thunderstorms. Those could be a tad stronger. As of right now, the SPC has us in a “Slight Risk” for Monday but I have a feeling that will change.
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Previously, there was an advertised cool down for Monday. I have not been sold on that and looking over the latest information, it appears we’ll actually have a weak warm front lifting over the area. Thus, the temperatures will likely remain in the 80s.
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Shaking the dew points will be tough, so I think that means we’ll still deal with high heat index values (around 100°-110°).

Even this afternoon, our highs barely touched the 90 degree mark, but the heat index readings were stifling.
Heat Index readings as of 5pm Saturday
Heat Index readings as of 5pm Saturday
Given the fact that we have a chance for thunderstorms over the next couple of mornings, I would also suggest people be ready for potential power outages. It seems we’ve had a lot of locales take power hits when storms roll through. If the wind does happen to pick up steam, I would not be surprised at all to see more outages.

Our weather team will continue to monitor things and give you updates. Be sure to keep watching our newscasts for the very latest forecasts and updates.
My kingdom for an Omega block right now… (Weather geek humor)
-JD

Same Song and Dance, Heat and Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

We can’t go more than 2 days without thunderstorms.  Today we are having thunderstorms, mostly north of I-70.  They will be over by noon, leading to a steamy afternoon.  A Heat Advisory is in effect.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR (7 AM): There were heavy downpours across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.  Some locations will see a quick .25″ to .75″.

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HEAT ADVISORY: It is a large heat advisory from Chicago to the Gulf coast.  After the rain ends, it then evaporates creating crazy humidity.  This humidity when combined with highs in the low 90s makes the heat index around 105°.

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HEAT INDEX FORECAST SATURDAY PM:  We have some much water in the ground, that during the afternoon the grass, trees, plants and crops let off so much water (evapotranspiration) that the dew points climb close to 80°.  Also, the moisture in the soil evaporates.  This moisture combined with highs in the low 90s make heat index values around 105°.  Make sure you check on the elderly, kids and pets in the car.

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SATURDAY 5 PM: A cold front will slice into the heat and humidity.  Now, this evening there will be a strong cap in place.  This will likely inhibit thunderstorms.  However, across northern Missouri and Iowa the cap may break, leading to a few severe thunderstorms where a slight risk of severe weather exists.  This front will come through tonight.  The cap will weaken and thunderstorms will be likely after midnight into Sunday morning.  These will be a bit more than what we had Saturday morning.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The front will be sagging south as the morning has more showers and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours.  These thunderstorms will likely end during the afternoon leading to a dry Sunday afternoon and evening.  Highs will be in the 80s as the front is to the south.

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SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Then the front will stall as a disturbance comes out of the Rockies.  This will generate new thunderstorms in western Kansas Sunday evening.  This will likely become a big complex and head east into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Sunday night and Monday.  These  could bring some very heavy rain and flash flooding.  A few thunderstorms may have 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Still a threat for severe weather today

A classic shelf cloud got the attention of many this morning as it rolled over the Southern side of Metro Kansas City. Many people sent us photos and you can view those here at this link.
All-in-all, the worst of the storm brought some downed limbs and power outages. But it seems that almost any wind gust over 40mph will knock out power around the area this season.

Here at 1pm, we still have some activity on the radar. This little batch of t-storms has developed over the last half hour and continue to press to the East.
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I do not see a severe weather threat with that activity at all. However, you may have heard about the SPC still having us in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather today.
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Overall, I feel the better odds will be to the North of Kansas City. The forecast models have not been handling this stiff all too well, so we much be cautious on how much we lean on the models. Simple meteorology tells us that with ongoing rain & cloud cover, it’s going to be hard to prime the atmosphere. Temperatures right now are not all that warm.
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And yes, the dew points are high enough to support some bigger storms….
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But you need a few other dynamics in place first. It appears the better location for the energy is going to be along and North of the Iowa/Missouri line and into portions of Eastern Nebraska. Now, in the world of weather, you learn to never say never.
If the atmosphere *can* overcome a few hurdles, we do have the potential to bubble up some strong storms that could push the severe limits. The best time for this would likely be after about 5-6pm tonight. I’d say we need to keep eyes on far NE Kansas and NW Missouri for development.

Right now, however…
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The clouds are obviously in place and with the current rain on the radar, it may only help to stabilize the atmosphere.
That said, it does appear that the sky is trying to clear out. So this is a day where the longer we can keep the clouds, the lower our chances will be for severe weather.

Our team is going to be looking over every bit of information and will give you the latest updates on air and online as the afternoon and evening goes on.

Thanks to the clouds and the rain, we may be able to stay out of the 90s today. This would end a 4-day streak we have going.
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The list time we had four or more days with temperatures at or above 90 degree was August of last year.
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It appears we won’t get a break from the heat for long. We’re right back into the fire, especially by this weekend.

Once again, we will continue to monitor the atmosphere this afternoon for redevelopment of thunderstorms. For many of us, we’ll get through the rest of the day dry. That said, I would not be surprised if there is some form of a watch issued for part of our coverage area later this afternoon. My hunch would be along the Iowa/Missouri line and near the Kansas/Nebraska line.

-JD

Interesting July Weather

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Well. yesterday was quite an interesting July day as dew points rose to 83° in spots.  The heat index rose to around 115°.  Then a weak front came through and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms formed in the city around 5 PM, dissipating by 8 PM.  Today will be a tad cooler, or less humid.  So, the heat index will be around 105°.  So, we are in an Heat Advisory instead of an Excessive Heat Warning.

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Will we have thunderstorms today?  The chance is rather low as there is no real boundary to focus the thunderstorms and there is no real upper level disturbance drifting by.

SURFACE FEATURES AT 5 PM: You can see there are small, ill-defined boundaries all over the place, so we cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm.  The atmosphere is pretty capped.

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HIGHS TODAY:  It will be about the same as Monday, but not quite as humid.

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Wednesday will be a much more interesting day.  There will be a much more defined warm front as a small storm system tracks from the southern Rockies to northwest Kansas and Nebraska.

 

WEDNESDAY 5 PM: Temperatures will range from near 100° in southwest Kansas to the 60s/70s in Nebraska.  There will be quite a bit of thunderstorm activity in Nebraska.  We may see a few morning thunderstorms along and north of the warm front across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

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WEDNESDAY 5 PM (SCENARIO #1): So, there will be many thunderstorms across northern Kansas and Nebraska with a few continuing to linger in our area.  The question is which direction will these thunderstorms track, east or southeast?  If the event is more of a contained storm system, the thunderstorms will most likely stay across Nebraska and Iowa, clipping northern Missouri and northeast Kansas.

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WEDNESDAY 5 PM (SCENARIO #2):  If the thunderstorms become very big on the south end, they could easily break off and head southeast into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Wednesday evening.  These would be organized and severe with strong winds the main threat.  We will not know until tomorrow which solution is right.  The RPM is all over the place.  One run shows scenario #1, then the next run shows scenario #2.  The NAM is leaning with scenario #1.

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Have a great day and make sure the kids and pets our out of the car when you are.

Jeff

Excessive Heat and Some Thunderstorms

Good Monday bloggers,

Extreme dew points, with the rare 80° level at 3 PM this afternoon:

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This has lead to the development of thunderstorms this evening, including one that produced a tornado moving southwest north of Wichita:

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We have traded the thunderstorms for heat.  However, many have been asking for this as last week we had the coldest July day since 1979.  An upper level high, anticyclone, heat wave creating machine has formed over the southern Plains.  This has pushed the bigger thunderstorm activity to the north and east as this is where the jet stream has retreated.  So, first the heat.  We are in an Excessive Heat Warning (An Excessive Heat Warning is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States within 12 hours of the heat index reaching one of two criteria levels. In most areas, a warning will be issued if there is a heat index of at least 105°F for more than 3 hours per day for 2 consecutive days, or if the heat index is greater than 115°F for any period of time) with a Heat advisory (A Heat Advisory is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States within 12 hours of the heat index reaching one of two criteria levels. In most areas, an advisory will be issued if there is a heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day and/or if nighttime low temperatures are above 80°F for 2 consecutive days) covering a large are across the USA.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW:  The main jet stream is flowing to the north, then southeast into the Midwest. This storm system is right on the LRC schedule. Do you know what happened 95 days ago today? Potentially the strongest tornado of the year 100 miles west of Chicago, and yesterday’s and today’s moderate risks are 94 to 95 days after April 9th when that tornado that killed two people occurred. The LRC is cycling every 45 to 50 days, and this is right on schedule.  The Weather2020 12 week forecasts have just gone out to the world. Here is the link to the press release, as we know Gary has been working on this for 30 years now:  12 Week Forecast Press Release.  Here is the flow today:

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY: The best chance of severe weather is east of the Mississippi River, yes it may have an impact on All Star festivities.

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RADAR 951 AM: Look at what is on its way to Cincinnati.  This is the first of many rounds of thunderstorms the next 3 days.

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HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNINGS TODAY: This is our main weather issue as we are closer to the upper level high.

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Today’s highs will reach the mid to upper 90s with a few spots getting close to 100°.  Now, we have received quite a bit of rain the last several weeks as you know.  The water in the ground is now evaporating causing the humidity to be quite high along with the higher temperatures.  This is why we have the Excessive Heat Warning.

HIGHS TODAY:  Also, notice there is a very weak front sagging into the area.  This weak boundary along with a few disturbances from the Rockies will give us the chance of a few thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday.

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HEAT INDEX FORECAST TODAY:  This is a bit ridiculous as some locations will come close to 120°.  The highest I have seen is about 122° in the 45 years I have lived in KC.

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HIGHS TUESDAY: Tomorrow will be a tad cooler as the weak front sits here and there will be more clouds and a few thunderstorms.  You can see cooler spots where the thunderstorms will occur.  This says Hiawatha and Chillicothe will be the coolest, but any location has a 20-30% chance of a cooling downpour.

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Have a great week and stay cool.  Remember the kids and pets in hot cars.

Jeff

Dangerous heat for Monday

If you thought it was hot today… you’re not going to like things on Monday and Tuesday.
The National Weather Service has upgraded us to an excessive heat warning for the start of the week
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What this means is heat index values will be closer to 115° at times. With conditions like this, spending long periods of time outside can become very dangerous, even deadly, for some.
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I do not see a real break in this heat (or the humidity) for the at least a few days.
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You need to make sure you find ways to stay cool and play it safe in these kinds of conditions.
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As far as the rain chances go, nothing looks too solid to me. There could be a pop-up thunderstorm or two Monday night into Tuesday, and even again Tuesday afternoon. But nothing looks very organized. The best chance may be after 8pm or 9pm on Monday and it would move from West to East *if* it can form. But again, I think most of us wind up staying dry.
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We will need to watch this same area on Tuesday, but if something can develop that day, it’d likely be a little sooner in the day, say in the mid afternoon. Again, this is conditional.

The “better” chances would be Wednesday night into Thursday across the wider area. But even that is not looking too promising at this point. The models are still in disagreement on what will happen and where things will go. It may pan out where the rain stays along the Iowa/Missouri line and never goes South of I-70. It all depends on how strong the ridge remains by the middle of the week. Read more about that ridge in yesterday’s blog.

Now all of that said, the NAM is going a little overboard in my opinion. It is the only bit of guidance that bubbles up big rain/storms for Monday and Tuesday and then tries to do something similar on Wednesday. I am not buying it totally just yet, but it is worth keeping tabs on.

The way it looks to me at this point: the collective “we” will be hot and (mainly) dry this week. The true July Summer that we’re used to seeing. Recall the summer of 2012… so it could always be worse, huh?!

Please find a way to remain cool,
IceDog

-JD

Summer settles in for a bit

What a week. Rain, thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, and days where we struggled just to hit 70 degrees. Now, the pattern is about to get flipped on its ear. Today is the start of a stretch of hot weather that we have not seen in almost a year. Already this afternoon, heat index values have climbed to near 100° in some areas.
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There is a heat advisory in place for Sunday and Monday which covers most of the region.
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Expect air temperatures to be in the 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s. This combination will lead to heat index values around 95° to 105°, depending on your location.
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With these types of conditions, you must use caution outdoors and try to limit your expose to the direct heat. Remember to find shade, drink water, and be mindful of the pets in situations like this.

What’s causing the change of fortune for us? We’re finally getting a Summer ridge to setup over the Central Plains.
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This is what we typically see this time and year and leads to the prolonged periods of hot and dry weather. Looking back over the numbers, it has been a while since Kansas City has experienced three or more days in a row of 90°-plus temperatures.
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We could get three days in a row for Sunday-Monday. Thus, while this ridge may be in place for a few days, it does not appear that it holds solid through the week. It may break down just enough to allow for rain and thunderstorm chances to creep back in–especially to the North of Kansas City–by Wednesday and Thursday. This would slightly cool our temperatures back into the upper 80s for about a day, perhaps two, before the 90s return.

Now that said, it doesn’t mean we’ll stay totally dry until the middle of the week. Just like popcorn kernels in a hot pan, we could bubble of some heat-of-the-day thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Right now, the guidance is hinting on this but isn’t too organized or in much agreement. It would be isolated and something we’ll keep tabs on each day.

In the short term, those going out to the stadium on Sunday will need to bring some water and perhaps an umbrella. Only this time, it won’t be for rain… it’ll be for some shade!
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Those who have been wishing for Summer to truly arrive will be happy about the forecast. Those that have been enjoy the break on the electric bill may not be as happy. Just remember: we’re 166 days away from Christmas. So, we’ve got that going for us.

Have a great weekend and stay cool,
-JD

Morning T-Storms Heading Our Way

Good morning bloggers,

Thunderstorms were moving into our south and west counties this morning.  It has rained 50 of the last 70 days, and it appears we will be adding another rain day to this statistic. It has also rained 67 of the last 100 days, since April 1st.  Here is the 7:30 AM radar image showing the complex of thunderstorms approaching with a leading feeder band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of this system.  This will likely survive another few hours and our weather team is tracing this on 41 Action News and 38 the Spot right now.

Screen Shot 2015-07-10 at 7.37.05 AM

After this rain weakens, new areas of thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight before some heat begins building in. I am writing up an LRC Forecast discussion on Weather2020. We have a major announcement coming out later today or by early next week at the latest as our 12 week forecasts have come out in the 1Weather app for androids. In the first two days since Wednesday’s launch over 1 million people have learned about this breakthrough technology that many of you have experienced for over a decade now.  More on this when the press release comes out.  Take a look at the weather pattern developing in the next few days.

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We have to monitor closely around the periphery of this developing high.  This is the summer anticyclone strengthening and it will be heating up over the weekend as a result.

Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town!

Gary