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Warming back up to start the week

We’ve enjoyed a wonderful weekend when it comes to temperatures. Some might say it’s Goldilocks weather: not too hot, not too cool. Thanks to a nice area of high pressure over the region, the winds have been light and the sun has been bright.
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The High will continue to drift off to the East and this will allow our winds to return more to the South.
Over the last ten days, our highs have really been all over the place. It seems as soon as we get warm, a shot of cool air moves in and settles things down.
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Going into Monday, I feel we’ll start to climb those stairs toward higher temps. Thanks to winds out of the South, our temps will climb into the lower 80s. For many, I think we’ll wind up near average (which is 83° for KCI).
Winds may shift a little more to the Southwest on Tuesday and I believe that will be enough to boost our temps even more. Could be the hottest day of the week easily. Here is how the forecast looks to stack up for Tuesday around the area:
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Now what about that chance for rain? It’s there during the day on Tuesday, but the BETTER chances appear to arrive Tuesday night an into Wednesday morning. Our latest in-house Powercast model is showing this as the setup for Tuesday night.
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Right now, I would say to plan for showers and sprinkles in the morning on Tuesday (they’d be scattered at best), then greater odds for actual rain, heavy rain, and thunderstorms by Tuesday night. Could turn a little noisy in some areas thanks to thunder.

Cooler air will seep in on Wednesday. Right now, given the timing of the system, I think we could see highs near 80 on Wednesday, but it would happen early in the day and then temperatures will fall through the afternoon. The next push of cool air works in for the end of the week and really drops us below average.

I know there has been talk about some serious cold coming into the area. Models are still indicating 30s are possible along the Iowa/Missouri state line. Given how things have gone this year, that would not surprise me. The better question is: how far South will that cold air sink?
The GFS is now saying the coldest air will arrive Saturday morning (not Friday, as it was saying yesterday). Notice the heart of that cold air being depicted over Western Wisconsin and far NE Iowa.
GFS
This would suggest (keyword) temps around 38°-40° for the Northern part of Kansas City. Once again, this is just model guidance and does not mean it’s “going to happen”.

The Euro models is in similar thought, saying the cold air arrives Saturday morning. It does take the cooler air a little more to the Southwest (into parts of the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles).
ECMWF
By the same token, it also suggest temps will be hovering around that 40° mark for Kansas City. We would need a clear sky and a drier ground for this all to happen. If we have clouds and/or some lingering moisture in the ground, I do not think it will get that cold.
Either way, this will NOT stick around and temps should start to quickly recover going into Sunday and Monday of the following week.

I’ll be back in on air tomorrow at 4, 5, 6, and 10p. We’ll keep tracking all the changes coming our way over the next 7-10 days, so be sure to check out the forecast. I hope you’ve had a great weekend!

-JD

PS–
If you see something on Facebook about “Record-Shattering Snowfall This Winter”, it’s fake. The site is a satire site and is known for tricking people. Please don’t believe their story and for the love of everything, DON’T share it around!
PSA

The quiet weekend continues

Tons of sunshine and some delightful temperatures today. Hard to argue that today wasn’t a good day! That said, I know there will be someone, somewhere that says today wasn’t what they wanted. Good thing I’m only in the “sales” side of weather and not the manufacturing part of it! My job is to sell you on the forecast and try to put a positive outlook on whatever may be going on. If I could control the weather, you’d be able to tell!

Check out the highs we had across the area today:
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Keep in mind we’re supposed to be at 83° in Kansas City. After all, it’s technically still Summer (but that really depends on who you ask). By the first week of October, we tend to see average highs in the 60s. Though it’s not uncommon for September to see a few days in the 60s. That will happen for us in about a week. Before we get to that, let’s talk about the cool morning.
Made it all the way down to the forecast low of 55° at KCI.
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Tonight will be close to 50° in KC and some areas to the North may wind up in the upper 40s, thanks to the clear sky and the light East winds. The record low tonight at KCI is 47°, set back in 1986.

We will likely warm up a bit more for Sunday. The sun is still at a good angle and we’ll have plenty of it. Plus, the winds will turn back around more to the South and that should help to usher in some milder air. Either way, it will still be great for Chiefs football. Here is what to expect if you’ll be headed to the game at Arrowhead.
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For those sticking close to home and doing things around your area, this is what to expect:
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Close up the computer, ignore the comments section for a day, get outside and go enjoy the nice weather!

I’ve got my eyes on Monday night through Wednesday evening. That’s our next window for rain and storms to move into the area. As it looks right now, the best shot would be Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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There will be a storm system moving by to our North during this time frame. Indications right now are that parts of Nebraska and Iowa will get the most rain out of this. But that’s not to say we may not get a healthy gift from above.
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I hesitate to post any kind of QPF (rainfall) projections from the models just yet. It will likely change and I am not the kind of person that wants to promise you moisture only for it to be taken away. Just know there is a chance and we will continue to monitor how this system takes shape and how it tracks across our region.

Farther down the road, models are still hinting at another big cool-down for the end of the week ahead. That said, there is still a little disagreement. The latest 12z model run of the GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) show a similar idea, but cannot agree on placement.
EuroFri

GFSFRI

Both images above are valid for Friday morning, the 12th. The Euro wants to place the heart of the cold air over Montana and doesn’t spill it too far beyond Minnesota. Whereas the GFS is a little more aggressive with the cold and plunges it all the way down into Northern Missouri AND Kansas City. If the GFS verifies, this would spell lows in the upper 30s for us! That seems to be a bit much this early in the season. Nonetheless, it’s something to keep eyes on over the next week.

Make the most of your weekend and thanks for checking out the blog, keeping it positive, and for sticking with 41 Action News. Have a great evening!
-JD

Friday night update & a look to the weekend

Step outside today and you could truly feel the change. A cold front moved through and dropped the temperatures about 20 degrees in a 24-hour span. High temperature reports for today will be a bit deceptive because many areas hit their highs at midnight (because the temperatures basically fell all day).

As for the rain, the models did not seem to handle the timing very well. Obviously it DID rain, but not in every single area. As of 8p, these are the rainfall reports via the NWS reporting locations (your backyard gauge may read differently):
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Right is done in Kansas City at this point. There are some lingering showers out to the East of the city, but those should continue to drift that direction and move out of the viewing area around midnight. That said, I do still see a little activity in Southern Kansas. This *could* drift to the South of KC overnight, but I do not think it will amount to much–if anything–for us.

Focusing on the weekend, an area of high pressure will settle down over us, allowing for the sky to clear out and the winds to remain fairly light. Toss in the fresh push of cool air, and this really will be a great weekend for outdoor events.
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Temperatures will try to warm as we go into Monday and Tuesday, but with rain in the forecast, it doesn’t appear we get above average. That said, the forecast models are suggesting our highs will be near 90. Something about this seems strange given the time of year and that rain chance. That said, this time of years the models can struggle with certain things and wind up spitting out bogus numbers.

One thing I can tell you: there is good agreement (via the models and via the pattern this year) that we’ll see another cool-down for next week.
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Another cold front will be on the move and this one will mean business. We’ve seen these shots of cooler air push in about every two months, so this should not be too much of a surprise. Given the shorter days and the lower angle of the sun, it may be difficult for our temperatures to recover. Right now, the indications are we’ll see overnight lows very close to 50° and highs struggling to reach the low 60s. As always, this is a forecast and is subject to change. No sense in getting worked up about something that hasn’t even happened yet.

Taking a moment to reflect back on the month of August, the great folks at the Kansas City NWS office have published an info-graphic of stats for a few locations:
AugInfoStats

What stands out the most in Kansas City is the precip. Up over three and a half inches for the month. Whereas St. Joseph was down over an inch and a half. Truly all about location when it came to rainfall in August.
Also note that temperatures were not that bad. While we did have some warm days, nobody cracked 100°.

At this point, I’d be willing to bet Kansas City is done with the 90° days. Perhaps we squeak out one more, but given how this year has been, we should be done. Good news for those tired of the heat and for those looking to keep those electric bills low.

Open up the windows tonight and leave them open all weekend. It’s a great stretch of weather for most people. Our next rain chance arrive Monday night into Tuesday and it looks fairly decent at this point. As always, we will continue to track it and provide updates. In the meantime: GO CHIEFS!

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-JD

Tricky Forecast

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Gorgeous shot on our skyview with sunshine and a few clouds.  There was a few showers that moved in the northern parts of the metro this morning, but have fallen apart.  We will see on and off showers throughout the day as the cold front moves southeast.

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Temperatures will be tricky today.  This will be what we call a nowcasting event where the entire forecast is based on how fast or slow the cold front moves through for temperatures.  This morning the front is north of KCI, but south of St. Joseph, MO stretching back toward Topeka. The temperatures range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s from northwest to southeast.  The same spread in temperatures will continue throughout the day with 80s south of the cold front and 60s northwest with Kansas City smack dab in the middle with 70s and falling throughout the afternoon.

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We will update this later on, but keep an eye on radar because the best chance for rain is tonight.

Kalee Dionne

From one extreme to the next

Good Morning Bloggers!

What a beautiful, but humid morning we are having out there.  You know when it feels like this in the morning it is going to be a hot one.  We will see temperatures once again in the lower 90s, so if you didn’t quite get enough pool time here is your chance.  May I say your last chance before a big change?

Strong southwest winds will continue to pump in warm air and moisture north into our area ahead of the next cold front.

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The cool air isn’t far away though and will be here in less than 24 hours.  We will see almost a 20 degree drop in temperatures between today and  tomorrow.

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Talk about a shocker! It will feel great and really put me in the mood for fall decorating, but still WOWZA! The front will be here tomorrow morning with on and off showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Friday and into early Saturday morning.

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Other than fall decorating there is most importantly FOOTBALL! I’m pretty excited and it will feel like football season on Sunday and those of you heading out to Arrowhead on Sunday will LOVE the forecast.

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I hope you have a great day!

Kalee Dionne

One Hot Day

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Well it was quite a light show this morning.  There was also a rainbow as the thunderstorms were stalled to the west and it was clear on the eastern horizon.  So, when the sun was rising it was able to shine on the rain shafts to the west, creating the rainbow.  Here are some shots from our One Park Place Condominiums Skyview.

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Here is the double rainbow.

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The thunderstorms were stuck from Lawrence to Pleasanton as this was the developing zone all night as the warm front stalled for a few hours. This created some very heavy rainfall which caused flooding in Lawrence.  Here are the total estimated by ESP.  Amounts were 5″ around La Cygne.

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Now what is next?  The morning thunderstorms are now moving off to the east and will be out of the viewing area by 12-1 PM.  The were caused by a warm front and so now here comes some heat.  Today will warm to 86, but Thursday will jump to 95.

THURSDAY:

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This cold front will move through Thursday night with little chance of thunderstorms as the air aloft will be warm, in other words, “capped”.  Then on Friday, behind the front, there will be an influx of monsoon moisture as a disturbance comes out of the Rockies.  This will create lots of clouds and showers behind the front.  So, Friday will see highs in the low to mid 70s.

FRIDAY:

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The good news, is that this will all shift south for the weekend and we are looking at some spectacular weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.  Yes, the weather for the Chiefs first game will be about as good as it gets!

Have a great day.

Jeff

Foggy Start

Morning Bloggers!

Keeping this short  this morning, but there will be an afternoon update.  There is quite a bit of fog out there this morning as our temperatures reached our dewpoint and the ground is very saturated.  Here is a live look outside just before 8 AM:

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This is our camera that is facing Kauffman Stadium, but you can’t see it because of how think the fog is out there.

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The visibility is now down below a half mile at Kansas City International Airport and many other spots.  Leave early to head out because traffic is slow.

Kalee Dionne

Thunderstorms forming again on Labor Day Night

Good evening bloggers,

Thunderstorms are forming again as an MCS develops over Kansas tonight. Here is a look at radar at 8:50 PM:

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This system will be long past by morning, and then we can look ahead to a warm front lifting northward Tuesday night. This will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms.

Gary

Labor Day Forecast

Good Morning Bloggers!

Wow…Loud thunderstorms last night and much needed rainfall for our area.  The rain is gone now with most moving southeast of Clinton, MO to Sedalia, MO.

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So, if you are just getting up and get to enjoy the day off here is what it looks like now that the rain has passed. We still have some clouds, but those will start to break up a bit over the next few hours.

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I know many of you are probably wondering about the rainfall totals around the area, so I’m going to post them right here.  This is as of 7:30 AM:

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The good news here is the storms that moved through last night helped stabilize the atmosphere, so the KC Metro area is done with the storms.  Now there is a chance of more storms for southeast of KC.   The timeline for those spots looks like after lunch through about 6 pm.

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So, the thunderstorms last night have wiped out the chance for severe weather for Kansas City.  The slight risk has been pushed farther to the southeast.

 

Kalee Dionne

Sunday Night Update

Good Sunday evening bloggers,

The thunderstorms area heading this way.  They have formed along a cold front and are now marching through central Kansas.  They are timed to arrive at the state line between 1130 PM and 1230 AM.  There are signs that this could evolve into more of a flash flooding situation over a damaging wind event.

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There are not many severe thunderstorm warnings at this time.  We will still have to watch this, but there are signs that the northern end of the line will push across northern Missouri, while the southern end of the line becomes more west to east and track near I-70.  If this happens, some dry areas could see some nice rain.  This is not set in stone, so we will watch it.

Here are the latest watches and warnings.  The yellow boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings.  There have been 50-60 mph wind gusts and some large hail.  A few spots earlier had 60-70 mph winds.

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Have a good night.

Jeff