“Sweaty” Roads & The Same Pattern Continues To Cycle

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with an interesting phenomenon;  “sweaty” roads.  Warm and moist air is flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it has made it into Kansas City. It has caused the roads to become saturated. In fact all surfaces such as roads, parking lots, decks, driveways, and patios have gotten soaking wet with no rain falling at all.  There are even puddles.  Take a look at Sunny The Weather Dog showing us this interesting weather development:


As it is all wet in KC from the sweaty roads, I doubt this phenomenon happens in Amarillo, TX very often.  They are now up to their 125th day in a row without any rain or snow.  The previous record was 75 days. Do you realize how incredible this continues to become? The record has now been smashed by 50 days and there is no end in sight. Take a look at this:


This morning, I decided to just call up this 16 day total before even looking at the weather pattern that is causing it. Well, first of all we are sharing with you an incredible meteorological discovery in the LRC. So, many of you already know that “the same” pattern continues to cycle and it will continue until late September.  But it doesn’t mean it still won’t surprise us at times. It is “the same, but different” (Gary England 2010).  There will be seasonal differences that we experience at the surface, but the same pattern continues.  Look at that rainfall pattern. The Texas Panhandle into eastern New Mexico continues to be at the epicenter of the expanding and developing drought.

This Drought Monitor graphic was just published this morning from the Climate Prediction Center:

Screen Shot 2018-02-15 at 8.19.26 AM

We will discuss the latest model trends in the comments section over on Weather2020.com. Click on the blog over there. Have a great morning and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.


Where Is It Dry? Look At The Next 16 Days

Good morning bloggers,

Happy Valentine’s Day!  Warmer air is moving into the plains states with the Gulf of Mexico open and moisture being pulled northward.  The ground was “sweating” this morning as just a little increase in humidity has caused the cold ground to saturate and everything has gotten wet. Unfortunately the chance of rain will remain low. Take a look at the precipitation forecast for the next 16 days from last nights 00z (6 PM Central) model run:


As we discussed yesterday with Amarillo, TX being near the epicenter of the developing and expanding drought, you can see the Texas Panhandle into southwest Kansas continues to be the target for the least amount of precipitation, well zero.  The exact opposite is forecast to happen over the Tennessee Valley. Wow! Look at that rainfall forecast which goes into the extreme of around 10 inches of rain in spots.  We will discuss this developing pattern in the coming days.

Yesterday we also discussed possible blocking. Well, on the latest 06z model run of the GFS there has been somewhat of an upper high developing.   Some blocking has shown up on the models at times, but then when we get to the time it was forecast to develop it doesn’t. There has been very little blocking or splitting of the flow all winter and this is one of the reasons Kansas City continues to sit at under 10″ of snow for the third year in a row.  Let’s see how the models trend today.  But, take a look at last nights model here that shows some upper high development over Greenland.



These two maps show an upper high, north of Greenland in seven days, the 168 hour forecast, and a larger one forms at 276 hours, or 11 days out.

Have a great day!


Extreme Drought Is Expanding

Good morning bloggers,

We have been concerned this entire season that a drought would be expanding out towards Kansas City.  Droughts are either expanding or contracting. This one is definitely expanding out right now and we can hope that what happened last spring could happen again, and the drought would shrink as we move into April and May, but again, I have concerns.  Amarillo, TX is experiencing something incredible.  Imagine how we would feel if we lived their this winter.  It may not have been as frustrating in Amarillo, when you compare their experience to what weather enthusiasts have experienced in KC.  At least KC has had many chances and seven snowfalls thus far, and a few other minor icing events. Amarillo has had nothing, and not even a chance of anything.  Their previous record without any measurable rain or snow was 75 days. This record is now 48 days longer than any record dry spell in their recorded history:


The dry weather in Amarillo is expanding out across southern Kansas and most of Oklahoma. It is now being placed in the Extreme Drought category by the Climate Prediction Center’s Drought Monitor:



Seasonal Differences Showing Up: This May Lead To A Wild Winter Month Ahead

The fourth cycle of this years pattern will begin in ten to fifteen days.  Jeff and I were analyzing this pattern yesterday and we saw some strong similarities to October showing up. One seasonal difference that could happen if we do indeed have more functional storm systems in October will be Arctic air. There was no Arctic air available in October, but there will likely be a rather large Arctic air mass available in this fourth cycle if this map below is at all accurate.  Here is the temperature forecast valid on February 21st, right around the time the fourth cycle of this years LRC will begin.


This years pattern is cycling every 44-51 days, averaging on a 47-day cycle.  I will make a video for tomorrows blog to show you the first three cycles of this years LRC.  It is rather incredible.  Amarillo, TX last measurable precipitation actually did happen within the first cycle of this years pattern. October 13th is the last precipitation they had; 0.01″ on October 13th, 0.05″ on October 9th.  So, that first storm of the season produced as the LRC was setting up, but not much. Remember, we identify this years pattern to have started around October 7th.  The old weather pattern from the previous year was falling apart around the last week of September into that first week of October. We can call this the transition period of the cycling pattern.   Four days before October 7th, in this transition period, over two inches of rain fell in Amarillo. Something very different began happening just as this years LRC started.

So, here we are about to move into cycle 4.  What can we expect?

  • Will it stay dry in Amarillo?
  • Will the frustrations continue in KC?
  • Will Chicago get blasted again?
  • Will Los Angeles get only their second storm of the season?
  • Will the drought expand and worsen, or begin shrinking?

These questions will be answered in the next few weeks.  Los Angeles had one deadly winter storm this season where over a dozen people were killed in a landslide/mudslide in Ventura county, just north of Los Angeles. A storm produced 1.77″ on January 8th-9th. Do you know what is just blowing my mind this morning, amongst most of what I am writing today?  Los Angeles, downtown at the Civic Center, had only 0.12″ from October 1st through January 7th, and only 0.01″ since January 8th. So, they literally have had only one storm system produce this rainy season.  With a 47-day average cycle, this part of the pattern is due back in California around February 25th.  The driest year in Los Angeles history is around 3.75″, so they need almost 2 more inches of rain just to get to the driest year ever.

The AO and NAO:

What could be HUGE for a major difference in cycle 4?  We have been waiting all winter. One of the reasons I went with 21″ of snow for the winter is that I thought we would have a dip in the AO and NAO indexes a few times, a dip into negative territory. I have seen some indications on recent model runs of blocking developing in the right spots that would benefit KC. Well, for this blocking to happen, we would like to see a big negative dip in the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO dip would be something that just has not happened at all.  Well, could our dreams be answered? Take a look at this mornings indexes that just came out:

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 7.42.34 AM

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 7.42.51 AM

What are we seeing here? Look at those huge dips. Now, these dips, these forecasts are based on the ensemble member runs of the models and we have seen these forecast to happen a couple times before. When the pattern set up in October, I saw the potential for a big dip in these indexes in that first cycle, but when it came down to it, the dip never quite happened. There were a few small dips into negative territory, but no impacting ones. Look at these dips in both of these indexes.

If this were to happen, the big negative dips, then we will likely see an upper high form over Greenland, and maybe over northern Canada or Alaska. This would force the jet stream to be stronger and farther south.  Combine this possibility with that 17-day stretch of stomier weather that produced in October (KC had nearly 5″ of rain in October), then we may be about to see a true winter storm in KC for the first time this winter, and Amarillo’s incredible dry spell may be broken.  It’ something to ponder in the next few days.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click here Weather2020 Blog to join in the conversation, which should be quite interesting today. Have a great Tuesday!


0.8″ Average Per Each Time It Snows In KC

Good morning bloggers,


Is Kansas City the most difficult location to forecast the weather in the world, or at least the United States?  I would argue yes. We do a very good job at it, but this last week has had a black eye on some of the meteorologists in this city.  Think about this statistic:  38 snowfalls in the past four years have added up to 30.4″ of snow, for an average of 0.8″ per snow.  So, if we have any chances of snow, we might as well not look at the models and just predict under an inch and there is a great chance we would be accurate here in KC


Yesterday, it hit 81 degrees in Miami.  It was 50 degrees colder than that in KC.  A big warm up is on the way, however.  We will discuss the pattern and changes in the next blog. If you were watching me last night on 41 Action News after the Olympics you may have seen that I pulled or tore a muscle or tendon in my left arm during the newscast. The clicker, that I use to change the maps, flew out of my hand into the air, and I tried to catch it, and something went out.  Hopefully it is not that bad.  So, today is a short blog entry. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.


One Last Snow Band and Major Warm Up

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

I know it is not much, but it was snowing at 1 AM. There was a light dusting in some areas, but look at the last second on the second radar image:

Screen Shot 2018-02-11 at 12.57.13 AM

Screen Shot 2018-02-11 at 6.42.32 AM

After a week of tracking a chance of snow, we end up with this last image.  The freezing drizzle last night has happened many times before, but it was still shocking.  If all of that were snowflakes instead of liquid water it would have lessened the frustration. But, instead we had super cooled water droplets in an environment where the entire atmosphere was well below freezing.  Super cooled water droplets can stay in liquid form all the way down to nearly 40 degrees below zero, if the air is clean. We must have had really clean air last night.

Well, if you are up at 7 AM, you may see this last band of snow. Let us know.  Thank you for sharing in the Action Weather Blog Featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Now, let’s take a look at the week ahead as we get a break from the small winter systems and a sweet treat on Valentine’s day.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The sun will come out in full force this afternoon, allowing highs to climb to around 30°.


MONDAY MORNING: It will be a frigid start with lows 5°-10°, but at least the wind will be 10 mph or less. Wind chill values will still be around -5°. The chance of re-freezing and black ice patches is there, but most of the ice and snow will evaporate this afternoon with sunshine.


MONDAY AFTERNOON: The wind will be coming from the east-northeast, so highs will be about where they are on Sunday, around 30°. It will be mostly sunny with more clouds northwest.


TUESDAY: Highs will reach 45°-50° as the wind becomes southerly along with thicker high clouds. Lows will be in the 20s as the Arctic air makes a quick retreat.


VALENTINE’S DAY: We are in for a sweet treat as southwest winds take us to highs 55°-60°. Highs will reach the low 70s in southwest Kansas and 40° in Valentine, NE. Lows will be 35°-40° in our area.


VALENTINE’S DAY EVENING: It looks like there will be lots of clouds with dewpoints in the 40s. So, if you are heading out during the evening, temperatures will drop slowly to 45°-50°.


Have a great week.

Gary and Jeff

The 8th Snow Event of the Winter

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are likely going to have our 8th main snow of the season and we officially stand at 5.4″ of snow for the winter. So, right now we are averaging 0.8″ of snow per event and this next event will have a tough time raising the average.

Here is the weather time line for this next event. If you are out and about 6 PM to 9 PM there will be developing slick spots and after 9 PM is when the roads will get more slick.


Now, let’s go through this next small snow event.

SATURDAY 6 PM TO 9 PM: We will see areas of light snow increase with some freezing drizzle to the southeast. The roads will be in decent shape with some slick spots developing.


SATURDAY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT: The snow will be most likely falling north of I-70 with scattered light snow to the south. Once again, this is not a strong or organized storm system.


SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM: This is the best chance of snow for all of KC, but just like last time we are waiting for a trailing band of snow. The only difference, is we have a better chance of scattered light snow before the band. It won’t take much to get slick with temperatures between 10° and 15°.


SUNDAY 3 AM TO 7 AM: The snow will end and move off to the southeast. Yes, this is one notch away from a non-snow event.


SUNDAY: Any snow areas will be over by 9-10 AM and the sun will return during the afternoon as highs reach the 20s.



Based on the new data we are at a dusting to 1″ of snow for most locations.  1″ to 2″ of snow is possible north of highway 36. This data has KCI meeting the seasons snowfall per event average of 0.8″. It may end up less than this.


This is yet again a snow lovers nightmare, but if it is not going to snow, it might as well be warmer. This week we are in for a huge warm up as highs by Valentine’s day should climb to 55°-60°.

Have a great weekend.


100% Chance Of Snow Saturday Night

Good morning,

Today, a Winter Storm is moving through the lower Great Lakes. There are many flight cancellations as Chicago is getting hit and it extends to Detroit.  This storm will zip by, and then there is another one, this weekend, forming farther to the southwest.  Would you be shocked if this weekends storm ended up producing almost exactly what the Christmas Eve storm produced?  The LRC has been used, in recent years, to help make accurate forecasts for specific events from the weather for the likely conditions at the Super Bowl played outside in East Rutherford, NJ, four years ago to even more specific examples such as getting the forecast down to a complex of thunderstorms producing potential severe weather.   Let’s take a look.


This is the radar image from Christmas Eve. The latest data continues to trend into the direction of something like this happening Saturday night and early Sunday morning once again, exactly one cycle later, 47 to 48 days after Christmas, which was also on a Saturday night-Sunday morning. It may even be close to the same timing, but of course there will be some differences and we will discuss below.

Kansas City Weather Timeline: I will finish the timeline by 8 AM.

  • Today:  A cold front will move through this morning. It was 40 degrees at 5 AM, and it will drop into the upper 20s or near 30 later this morning with increasing north winds. It will likely stay dry today.
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow flurries. There is a chance of some more organized light snow over northern Missouri.  Low:  10°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a few flurries.  High:  19°
  • Saturday Night: Snow likely, possibly briefly heavy. The best chance of snow is from 10 PM to 6 AM. Low:  8°
  • Sunday:  Snow ending and becoming sunny. Total Snow Accumulations: A dusting to 2″ expected.

I went for a 100% chance of snow Saturday night.  Before I did update this forecast, I found this graphic that I wanted to use to show the chance of snow this weekend.  And, look:


This forecast above was from 47 days ago. Remember, we are in a 44 -51 day cycle, centered on around 47-48 days.  As Gary England said to me around ten year ago, “Lezak, I saw it. I saw the LRC. It’s the same, but different”. This is when there was a major snowstorm potentially going to hit Oklahoma City around ten years ago.  I had explained to Gary England that OKC would get hit and all he had to do is look at the previous cycle of the pattern. He saw a glimpse of the cycling pattern.  So, here we are; the same, but different. We are in the same part of the pattern that produced snow on Christmas Eve, and here is the graphic I updated for this weekend. It even is falling on the same day of the week with a similar timing:


117Jeff Penner was at work that Sunday morning, and he will be at work again this Sunday morning. He better not only be measuring 0.8″ of snow. That is what he measured 47 days ago.  And, the snowflake contest did not end. 1.1″ of snow fell at KCI Airport, and 1.4″ was recorded in Overland Park, KS. In fact, there was a minimum of under an inch right near the Plaza where Jeff measured the lowest total in the city that day.  Remember, it is the same but different, as Gary England pointed out years ago.  So, can’t the “difference” this time work in our favor?  Kansas City continues its streak of under 3″ of snow on any calendar day. The streak is now over 4 years long.  And, the chance that it continues is still rather high.  This means that our forecast of a dusting to 2″ is the most likely scenario.  We will continue monitoring this set up for any adjustments and changes, but right now there are still models that have lower totals. The European model came in just after midnight and it did end up modeling 1-2 inches, but most of its snow was on Sunday morning.

This next map shows one solution for Saturday night around 11 PM, and then for Sunday morning as the system falls apart.



The set up is there for a lot more snow. If you look at the 850 mb flow, all we need is a slightly stronger solution, a slightly stronger storm dropping into the Rocky Mountains, and then we will be able to up the totals. But, any weaker, and then just a dusting will be the most likely solution.


This is a strong baroclinic zone, frontal zone around 5,000 feet up. The 0°C line extends from Hobart, OK northeast to Chanute, KS, and then northeast to Indianapolis, IN. There is a 25°C contrast from -15 to +10 degrees Celsius. If there is any decent wave aloft that could trigger just some lifting, then this could turn into a big snowstorm.  We are monitoring closely, but from what we have experienced this season, it most likely will not come together. If there is any indication that it will, then you know I will jump all over it. This is just set up to blast someone, but there needs to be a trigger.

The Cycling Pattern:

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 12.28.17 AM

Here is more of “the same, but different. The Christmas week part of the pattern is cycling through right now. As we tweeted out a couple of weeks ago, this is right on schedule. Other meteorologists suggested that this was returning. It isn’t just returning, but it has returned, cycled back through, and the pattern is cycling regularly. It will return again in late March. We will find out what the spring version of this pattern will bring. Could there be a Major Winter Storm just as spring begins? The answer is likely yes, but will it be Chicago, Des Moines and Omaha, or KC that gets targeted? This is the big question.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the weather blog by clicking here:    http://weather2020.com/blog/  This conversation will be a good one today. Let’s track in this chance of snow.


Will It Snow Or Miss This Weekend?

Good morning bloggers,

This lonely snowman took an entire yard of snow to make, but it is the biggest snow man I have seen in KC in at least two or three years:


It has been over four years now without even one storm producing 3″ of snow in a calendar day. A record that is now longer by over a year than any other time in KC history. Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.

We have similar challenges with our forecast for snow this weekend and it is only two days away.  There  is NOT a “real” storm once again. What do I mean by “real”?  It is difficult to explain, but if you recall, and if you were reading the blogs last week, I showed what was wrong many times with the last chance of snow. I clearly showed how that one very weak disturbance needed to be a little stronger. If it were slightly stronger, then we would have had a much better chance of wide spread snow. If it were slightly weaker, then we would likely have no snow.  I know many of you realize that we had this discussion, but think about it. It never did get slightly stronger, and it was also not a “real” storm, where there was a surface cyclone anywhere being generated.  This storm is similar, in that it is not quite forming into a storm, and most of the snow will be falling into a high pressure area. More on this in a second. Let’s look at today’s pattern.


A warm front, the red line, should pass through KC today. This will likely lead to a jump in temperatures to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Snow will develop north of the warm front across the Dakotas.  Now, this is a real surface cyclone, with a warm front, a cold front, and a trough of low pressure all winding into a pretty strong surface low.


The map above shows the forecast map valid by noon Friday. Another strong blast of cold will be moving across the plains into the Great Lakes. Snow is forecast to develop north of KC Friday.  By Saturday morning, there is a chance that some of this snow will track into northern Missouri, but notice the hole near KC.  Here we go again. That hole makes the entire model suspect.


The map above is the aggressive GFS model that has several inches of snow still being modeled for Saturday into Saturday night. The Euro model has a lot less. The European Model does have around a dusting to 1″ by Sunday morning near KC. Here is the midnight Saturday night European Model:

Screen Shot 2018-02-08 at 7.10.44 AM

Again, the GFS is much more aggressive, but this is not a “real” storm yet. It is very disorganized aloft and it is something I will explain more tomorrow.


Have a great day. We will look into what direction this is headed, how the models trend. But, we have another challenging weather forecast. The models range from NO SNOW, not even a flurry by the Canadian model to over 5″ on the GFS near KC.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversations:  Weather2020 Blog


What Happened & What’s Next?

Good morning bloggers,

Well, let’s be realistic and honest here. And, most of you know I don’t hold back, and I share with you just about everything, if you ask.  Yesterday was not good for meteorologists in Kansas City.  I am a bit surprised at the lack of snow, but the warning signs were there.  Just look at the titles of the last few blog entries.

February Blog Titles:

  • Kansas City In A Snow Hole
  • Try Not To Get To Excited About Snow Yet
  • The Snow Struggle Continues
  • Three & Out, Punt
  • The Trend Is Up On Super Bowl Sunday
  • Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?
  • Snow Chances & Models
  • The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesday’s Storm

These are all of the blog titles in February thus far.  I think they say a lot.  It’s not like we were really expecting to get hit hard, and there was a way to forecast this storm better, no doubt about it.  But, we still did not get it right. Forecasting a dusting to 2″ of snow is like forecasting if it is going to sprinkle or have light rain for an hour or two during the spring. If it rains, then perception will be that we got it right.  If it snows, then the perception goes to did we also get the amounts accurate as well, which is a challenge for any precipitation forecast.  Either way, we still did not get this right.  As discussed multiple times, including big time in that video, the storm just needed to be a bit different, tilted a bit less positively, and just a bit stronger. It wasn’t, and the KC metro ended up with the short end of the snow stick.  No excuses, my forecast was not good at all yesterday.  The negative Nancy’s out there say such horrible things, as if we never, ever get a forecast right. When we forecast snow, and it snows, guess what? That is an accurate forecast. Forecasting the exact amounts is where snow becomes more glaringly difficult to forecast.  We have done quite well in the past few years, but this one went bad as not even a dusting happened. But, this has been a very rare occurrence.

The forecast was blown for KC. Even my dusting to one inch of snow forecast didn’t happen. My “slam dunk” of at least a dusting forecast failed.  On my way home it snowed last night, yes I experienced ONE snow shower from this storm. This came after the perception of a missed forecast on Sunday.  Believe it or not, our team forecasted Sunday’s storm better than everyone else. All last week we thought it may snow last Sunday and it did. Did I expect a blizzard for 1 hour with nearly 3″ over the south metro area, no way.  But, it did snow, and if you forecast snow and it snows, then the forecast is accurate. But, when it comes to forecasting amounts, well good luck. And, other forecasts were much worse than ours on Sunday and yesterday, so there is a buzz around town that we are wrong often. It is the landscape we have to deal with, but we will get over it.  Yesterday was not a good day, this has not been a good week, and now we have more of this weather pattern to forecast as another system is already showing up. Will it make us look like fools again?

I have a lot of pride and passion in trying to change the perception of meteorologists, the perception from many who think the weather can’t be predicted accurately. I have spent my entire career trying to change this perception.  The battle continues, and I hate getting thrown in with all of the other forecasts, when more often than not (Not always) Weather2020 and KSHB have the best, most accurate, and most specific forecast.  We took a hit, but we have had much worse forecasts in the past, it has just been a while since one was this glaringly inaccurate.  I should have stuck to my first impression of this storm five days before.  I didn’t.

So, what is next? Another chance of snow is already in the forecast, but are we going to believe any of the models that predict anything significant for KC?  Take a look at this next storm, this upper level, 500 mb forecast map valid on the day we are supposedly going to have our next chance of snow.

Screen Shot 2018-02-07 at 5.58.25 AMBefore we get to our next chance of snow near KC, take a look at what is forecast to happen today. Can you believe this? Of course we can, as this is what happens to storm systems after they pass our area this year.  The same storm that pulled off making fools out of meteorologists in Kansas City is now targeting the northeastern states. My goodness I would love to forecast this. The meteorologists over the northeast have their own set of challenges.  But, instead of trying forecast a dusting or an inch or two of snow, they get to forecast whether or not it will be five inches or a foot of snow.  Forecasting a dusting is like forecasting if it is going to sprinkle outside.  Think about that, ridiculous what we have had in our bag of forecasting opportunities in KC, while in other parts of the nation they get to deal with this storm to forecast, the same one that did not get its act together over our area yesterday.  After this system exits the focus then shifts back to the plains, but what is it we are really looking at with this pattern that continues to cycle regularly.

The developing weekend weather pattern:

500 mb flow valid Saturday:


Where is the storm? Seriously, where is it?  Here we go again, a very disorganized pattern with a trough severely positively tilted from Hudson Bay in Canada extending west-southwest to Portland, OR.  I pointed out to Jeff Penner and our team a few weeks ago where this feature is one of the long-term long wave features, one of the anchor troughs that is causing our “problem” in KC. And, here it is again, for around the 15th time this season. There was one of these stretched out troughs that helped us miss a storm in December that did hit the deep south with snow.  What is going to happen this time?

Surface forecast valid Saturday morning:


Oh no, seriously? We have an area of precipitation forecast to be located from southeast Arkansas to Florida, and another one entering northwest Missouri Saturday morning extending northwest into Nebraska.  This GFS model also produces snow in KC in the next 12 hours, but is it to be believed?  There is always one model that has no snow. They just won’t converge on a snowy solution near KC.  In this last storm it was the NAM model that not one time had any snow forecast for KC, and yet I ignored that model. WHY? Well, take a look at the one model that shows the miss this time.

European Model Forecast For Snow Ending Sunday Morning:

Screen Shot 2018-02-07 at 5.57.12 AM

The other models have snowier solutions, but again are we to believe it? Even if the models come out this morning with snow, are we to believe it? I say no, and we will not until I can see a good reason for it to happen.  There is a good reason for this not to happen right now.  That stretched out trough is a problem. Let’s discuss the trends in the comments on the Weather2020 blog.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. High: 28°
  • Tonight:  Clear and cold.  Low: 15°
  • Thursday:  Sunny and much warmer.  High: 48°
  • Friday: Increasing clouds. Much colder again with the winds increasing from the north at 5-15 mph. High:  32°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a chance of snow.  High:  22°

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.


The Accurate Forecast From Five Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesdays Storm

Good afternoon bloggers,

The new data is in, and there is still a chance of a dusting to 2″ near KC, but most likely nothing to a dusting is the better forecast.  We know this five days ago. Watch this video, and read the previous blog for more details.

Video Showing The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago:

A look into our next possible storm from Weather2020 on Vimeo.


Have a great day. We will be tracking any snow developments this afternoon and evening.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to Weather2020 and join in the conversation. This winter season has produced many small chances, and many have come through. Maybe we will still get a little snow accumulation tonight.