Quantcast

Here comes the rain again…

Look up the song, learn it, and sing it with me: “who’ll stop the rain…”

Radar snapshot from this morning shows us an MCS rolling out of Nebraska and into our area. This is going to give many areas North of I-70 a good shot at rain and thunderstorms.
1

I am not expecting severe weather, but some heavy rain and some window-rattlers are likely. Notice the areas that I have highlighted. These will be the areas to watch as this activity progresses across the area.
*Area 1 is moving off to the East and has no severe threat.
*Area 2 is pushing more to the East/Southeast and should move just North of the Metro. Again, not expecting severe, but the thunder/lightning may get your attention.
*Area 3 is the one that may clip the Northern part of Metro KC around the lunch hour today. Heavy rain plus thunder & lightning would be the main threats.

Guidance clears this activity out of the immediate area around 2-3pm this afternoon. This, then, could set us up to see some sunshine returning in the afternoon. Not really a good thing. It could add instability to the atmosphere and lead to a chance for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has part of our area in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather, with hail & wind the primary threat.
6

Again, this would be for the round of activity expected after 8pm tonight. Latest guidance says it’s not into our area until after 10pm. Nonetheless, still good to keep eyes to the sky as conditions can change quickly this time of year. Based on what I’ve seen, here is how the rain/storm chances look for the KC area.
8

It’s that time of year where the heat of the day will lead to pop-up storms so you have to make sure you’re prepared and have a way to get weather updates.
Speaking of heat… we’ll be in the 80s this week. Here is our temperature trend for today:
2

Kalee is singing at the Royals game tonight and then has the rest of the week off. I’ll be in for her tomorrow and Friday, watching the radar with anything that may pop up. Jeff & Gary will be in later today with the latest forecast information. So again, make sure you stick with us and we’ll keep you updated on the forecast.

GO ROYALS!
-JD

Zone of Thunderstorms

Good Tuesday bloggers,

The next 3 days will be interesting across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri.  A front will be stalled between I-70 and I-80 as disturbances track northeast through the Rockies then east into the Plains along and near this front.  Clusters of thunderstorms will form along this front and track east or southeast.  A zone will set up where excessive rain occurs from repeated thunderstorm clusters.  The question is where will this zone be located as the models are all over the place.  The most likely scenario for our area is that thunderstorms will form in Nebraska during the afternoon.  Then, late at night they will roll east then southeast, so that by morning we get a round of thunderstorms, not all extreme, some will be falling apart.  If the front sags south, then the breeding ground will shift to the I-70 corridor.

6 AM WEDNESDAY FROM RPM:  As you can see it has a round of thunderstorms rolling through.  The NAM and GFS have these thunderstorms well north with our area seeing a few showers and thunderstorms, not receiving the main area.  The RPM then forces the boundary south, putting our area in the heavy rain zone.

1

 

RPM RAINFALL FORECAST:  You can see that this solution tracks the thunderstorms more southeast.

2

 

GFS RAINFALL FORECAST: This model keep the heavy rain zone along I-80 with our area getting leftovers.

3

 

So, which is right?  We will not really know until this gets going, but we can look at the upper level flow to see where thunderstorms might track.  We are in a ridge, which is why it makes this a tough forecast.  The thunderstorms would form in Nebraska head east into Iowa then turn southeast across eastern Missouri, going around us if the below depiction of the flow is exactly right.  Now, what if the ridge is a bit further south or not as pronounced.  This would force the front and thunderstorms further south.  If the ridge is a bit further west then the thunderstorms would ride southeast into western Missouri.  Needless to say it is a tough forecast until we see the whites of its eyes.  At least Oklahoma and Texas get a break.

4

 

Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff

Wet May Is Over, Now What?

Good afternoon bloggers,

Take a look at this animation of the rain accumulating during the month of May. This is pretty impressive:

El Niño is strengthening big time as summer approaches. This is an extremely rare strengthening of this phenomena, and it has likely been an influence on the overall wet pattern that developed over Texas, Oklahoma, and even into our area in Kansas City. El Niño almost always will strengthen during the winter, but this one has been strengthening since April, after winter ended.  There is a lot of discussion on how this will impact hurricane season, and next winter. Well, next winter will have an entire new pattern, but if storm systems can strengthen near California, and El Niño continues, then there is hope for the relief of the California drought. That is still months away from being worthy of  a serious discussion.

Here is a look into the stats and El Niño:

Here in KC, we have another clouds and cool day, and it’s June 1st.

6

Last month, we only hit 83 degrees for the high, and that was early in the month.  We have to monitor the developing Pacific Ocean hurricanes in the next week. Some of the models bring this moisture into our region. Have a great day. We will look at our next chance of rain in tomorrow’s blog entry. The sun will come back into our lives on Tuesday!

Gary

A look back at May plus the quiet start to June

So here we are, on the last day of May, and it’s finally dry. Matter of fact, this seems to be the first dry weekend we’ve had all month! Here’s a look back at some of the stats from the month of May.
6

And if you’re wondering about rainfall totals, here they are from the major reporting sites (which will go in the record books) for the area:
5

Looking ahead, I think we start the week dry but a little bit cool. We’re supposed to be around 80° for the high, but we’ll struggle to get into the lower 70s on Monday and then to the middle 70s on Tuesday.
2

That means if you’re wanting to jump into the pool, you may have to wait until those temps warm up. However, I’ll put Wednesday as a “maybe” say since there could be a few pop-up storms in the afternoon.
4

As far as moisture goes, I am seeing some signals from the guidance that we could see something North of KC on Wednesday evening and again on Thursday. The GFS, Euro, & NAM all hint at it for Wednesday. Then the Euro & GFS are somewhat in agreement for Thursday with the rain staying North of I-70. Of course that is subject to change as we draw a little bit closer to those days.
Farther down the line, the odds do not look impressive but they are consistent in saying that we have chances for rain and thunderstorms Friday & Saturday. Once again, we’ll keep looking over all the information and provide you with updates.

Here’s to a nice, quiet, and DRY start to the month of June.
-JD

Time to wring out the lawn

May has certainly made a splash in our minds, there is no doubt about that. Now, many are hoping June washes away the clouds and gives the soggy sod a chance to dry up. We picked up more rain this morning… it wasn’t much, as you can see.
7

However, it was enough to unofficially push us into the 6th spot for all-time wettest May in KC.
6

The official numbers from the National Weather Service will be published later tonight but I think the number I have is correct.

Good news about this rain though (not just here, but to our South), the drought is pretty much gone for the Plains states. This is as of Thursday morning (May 28th).
3r

This is how it looked in June of last year.
9-1

Looking over the information, do you know how long it’s been since we’ve had five days in a row of totally dry conditions?  Here’s some trivia for ya…
3

The answer?
4

Starting today, we’ll see a shift in the jet stream, one that will place us on a weak ridge. This will help to keep things dry for a few days.
9-2

As it looks now, we’ll get through the first half of the week ahead dry. Perhaps even all the way through Thursday, which would give us five days of zero rainfall. This is great news for those wanting to get out and get the lawn taken care of.
5

When it comes to those wanting to hit the pool… well, you’ll have to wait a few extra days. Highs do not get above 80° until Wednesday. As soon as we warm up, we start to see rain chances come back. Based on the guidance I looked over today, our chances for thunderstorms return on Friday and Saturday as the ridge breaks down. What timing, huh? It only seems to figure this year…the weekends cannot be “nice”.

I do hope you are able to enjoy the afternoon Sunday.
-JD

Rain, Rain and Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

It has rained every weekend since March 28-29.  So, yes it has been tough to do outdoor activities with the kids.  We are about to complete a wet month.  It has rained all but 4 days for a total of 10.18″ at KCI.  11.14″ occurred in Overland Park!  Where does this month rank.

Here is the May rainfall calendar.  Wow!

5

We are 5.29″ above average.

1

 

The 10.18″ puts us at the #6 wettest May ever.  This is saying something after about 130 years of weather records.

2

 

What is next?  Today will remain cloudy, cool and drizzly with temperatures stuck in the 50s.

3

The sun should come back Sunday afternoon with the upcoming week much better.  Highs will warm to the 70s and 80s with little chance of rain.  Next weekend could get wet again. Meteorologist JD Rudd will be in tonight with an update.

4

 

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Look At Texas Again

Good late evening or early morningbloggers,

All season long, when there has been any risk of severe weather in our area, clouds and morning complexes of thunderstorms and rain significantly reduced the amount of solar energy available for the potential severe weather risk of that day.  Now, today, there is barely a slight risk over a small area of southwest Texas. But, a cold front is approaching, and it may be a struggle to get strong thunderstorms along the front this evening due to the cooler air. Take a look at the 7 AM Satellite picture:

1

Let’s discuss the points made in our spring forecast. Some of you have asked why we didn’t forecast the wet second half of May, when we obviously did. Here is one of the graphics from that spring forecast made two months ago.  As you can see the second line, “During the cold phase expect wetter weather in late May”.  And, we picked out the severe weather part of the pattern almost perfectly in that 17th to 25th window.  Remember, this week’s three big severe weather days did not even have a risk four days before from the SPC. Our 100 day forecast was better than the 4 day from the SPC.  Not bad at all. When we made that spring forecast it was rather dry, so it was a bold forecast, but of course not perfect. We did wonder if it would be below average on rainfall. Overall I would still say that it was quite accurate. You can judge it for yourself.  So, this was another accurate forecast using the LRC. We have been 75% accurate during the past two years.  What is going to happen next? You can learn more about the longer range at www.Weather2020.com.  Just check out the blog from yesterday. I showed the severe weather outbreaks that all lined up with this year’s LRC from the early October one to the April and May versions. They were all around 47 days apart.  Weather2020 is making accurate forecasts for the entire nation, not just for KC.  They aren’t perfect, but obviously we have raised the bar very high!

Spring-Forecast-Graphic-640x480

Now back to the shorter range.   Take a look at the radar this evening:

1

That is one big line of thunderstorms once again over Texas. Their historic flood continues to worsen.  There is a smaller complex of thunderstorms heading our way. I will go over it on the 10 PM newscast tonight.  Have a great night!

Gary

Rain Moves Right Back Into The Forecast

Good evening bloggers,

Today was only the fourth day this month without any rain falling at KCI Airport. Yes, 23 out of the first 27 days of the month have had at least a trace of rain. KCI Airport will likely go over 10 inches with a decent chance at getting close to 11 inches of rain this month. Kansas City, KS has already had over 11 inches of rain this month. Here are the totals as of Wednesday night:

1

 

There is a rather strong late May cold front approaching:

2

 

This front will likely move through Friday night, and it may leave low clouds behind for a cloudy, breezy, and possibly drizzly Saturday.  It has rained every weekend since late March, and just when it looked like it may be a nice weekend, I am not so sure at the moment. I have added in drizzle, with a chance of some measurable rain with a cloudy day in the 60s Saturday. This would also be about the same forecast for the area lakes this weekend as well.

3

Rainfall amounts will likely end up between 1/2″ and 1″ by Saturday morning.

It has been raining way, way, way too much in Texas with disastrous floods ongoing down there. Some horrible stories of people being killed by the flash flooding. Flood fatalities will likely far exceed tornado deaths this year. This is often the case anyway, but this has been bad. And more rain is likely in the next couple of weeks. Later next week is the wet storm part of the cycling weather pattern. I am confident in another 2 to 4 inches of rain in our area later next week. Take a look at the Altocumulus Lenticularous clouds that formed over southeastern Texas. These are wave clouds that are usually seen over the ridges of high peaks around the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountain ranges:

1

Have a great night, and we will get the blog updated Thursday.

Gary

A Break in the Rain?

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Overnight we had a new .50″ to 1″ of rain as the latest system tracked north from the southern Plains.  A few thunderstorms will be possible tonight and Wednesday, but organized rain is unlikely, a bit of a break.  However, a new wet system is likely Thursday through Sunday with more heavy downpours and flooding possible.

Since we are in a bit of a break lets look at the rainfall for May around the region.  Oklahoma and Texas rainfall amounts are incredible.

MAY RAINFALL STATISTICS

1

2

 

There is no wonder why Oklahoma and Texas are in a state of flood and having such major issues.  These are some crazy numbers.

 

3

 

The rain is not over as another west storm is on the way for Thursday-Sunday.  In between now and then there will be small areas of showers and thunderstorms.  This forecast is about as bad of news as you can get for Oklahoma and Texas.

4

 

We will see about 1-2″ more rain, with the chance of some areas seeing 2-5″.

5

So, with all of this rain the grass is growing at an alarming rate and needs to be mowed.  It is not easy with the ground being saturated.  It looks like the best day to mow this week is Wednesday.  The conditions will not be ideal, especially if your yard sees a downpour overnight.

7

Have a great week and stay dry.

Jeff

Holiday Weather Thoughts & My New Dog!

Good afternoon and Happy Memorial Day,

It has rained 22 of the first 25 days of this month, and KCI Airport is now up to 8.55″. We are not even close to being done, and a wet storm is likely to arrive this weekend. Between now and then there is a spinning disturbance moving northeast at around 25 mph. It will likely arrive near KC later tonight into early Tuesday morning to make it 23 out of 26 days this month with rain. I don’t quite remember that many days in any month before with rain or snow, but I could be wrong. I haven’t checked yet.  Here is the disturbance moving our way. There are watches and warnings on the leading edge of this system mostly over Texas.

1

 

Tonight at 10 we will name the new Weather Dog. The top names right now are Haily, Sunny, Misty, and Rainy. What do you think?  Here is a picture of Breezy, Stormy, and the new puppy as the sun came out this morning:

Dog1

Have a great day. We will do a more extensive blog later on this evening, or in the morning.

Gary