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Weak Cold Fronts Until Next Week

Good Tuesday,

We have had another beautiful December day with sunshine and highs around 50°.  Weak cold fronts will move by Wednesday and Saturday, so highs through the holiday weekend will be in the 40s and 50s as we continue to be dominated by Pacific air.

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Now, this being said we have Arctic air in the northern Plains where they have a deep snow pack.  This Arctic air will retreat the next few days.  There is a 70 degree temperature difference across the middle of the USA, but o big storm systems to act on this temperature gradient.  We will not see the Arctic air or warm air around here the next several days as we stay in the middle ground air mass.

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NEW YEARS EVE: One of the weak fronts moves by on Saturday, so for the evening New Years celebrations it will be dry with temperatures in the 30s falling to the 20s after highs reach the 40s.

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There are strong signs of a change in the weather pattern next week where a shot of Arctic air is likely.  It probably will not last more than 2-4 days, but the end of next week looks to be the peak of this cold blast.  Here are the forecast lows for next Thursday.

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Will we see any snow with this cold change?  Right now it is not really showing up, but we will have to watch for some snow as this colder air moves in.  We  could see some rain Monday, while we reside in the warmer air.

Have a happy and safe new year and DO NOT DRINK AND DRIVE.

Jeff

The Last Week of 2016

Good Monday,

I hope every one had a Merry Christmas or happy whatever holiday you celebrate.  The weather for the last days of 2016 will be calm with above average temperatures.  We will be dominated by Pacific air with no storm systems.  Here is a day by day look.

TUESDAY:

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WEDNESDAY:

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THURSDAY: A Pacific cold front will sweep by with wind, but just a small temperature drop.

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NEW YEARS EVE: It looks dry with temperatures in the 30s.  It can be much worse!

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NEW YEARS DAY:  This looks like a cloudy and dry day ahead of some changes.

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The first week of 2017 may have a chance of rain, possibly some snow with an Arctic blast possible.  We will have more on this as the days go by.

Have a great rest of 2016 and please do not drink and drive, especially this weekend.

Jeff

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays,

We wish you a Merry Christmas from 41Action News!  We have been forecasting 60 degrees or higher for today for a week now, and it is going to happen. Most of the day will be dry.  We had a few showers and thunderstorms around 5 AM, and I expect them to return around 5 PM.

Christmas Forecast Time-line:

  • Now to 5 PM: Mostly dry and warming up to 63 degrees, a bit higher south and a bit lower north. Winds increasing from the south at 15-30 mph.
  • 5 PM – 7 PM: A band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm moves across. This will impact tailgating with a 30 minute period of rain likely.  Have your umbrellas ready. It should pass through fairly quickly. The temperatures will stay near 60 degrees for kickoff and it may dry out by then
  • After 7 PM: The rain ends and temperatures only drop a bit into the 50s

Here is the forecast map valid at 5 PM central time today:

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A strong storm system is ejecting out into the plains today and a blizzard will likely be the result over the Dakotas today. A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely form farther south over the plains. Here is a zoomed in version of this map:

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The record highest temperature on Christmas Day in Kansas City is 67°. The only way that happens today is if the sun comes out, so let’s see how the day progresses. The instability is really going to be limited. We would need it to reach into the 70s for these convective showers to become a major concern. This still needs to be monitored closely. Here is today’s severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center. There is a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within that yellow shaded area. But, that also means there is a 98% chance there is not a tornado. This area is back out west where the thunderstorms or strong convective showers form. There was lightning near Kansas City around 5 AM this morning as a band of showers and thunderstorms zipped across. So, this shows the potential is there for a thunderstorm this evening:

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Take a look at the forecast temperatures for just a few hours from now:

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Have a great day. I will leave you with this beautiful picture taken by Gus Rodriguez. Thank you Gus and Merry Christmas everyone. And, Happy Chanukah. Tonight is the second night of Chanukah! I will check in later. Now it’s time to open presents.

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Christmas Weekend Forecast

Happy Holidays Bloggers.

It’s The Christmas Weekend Already!  The weather pattern this weekend will feature a strong storm, but for Kansas City this likely means a big warm up. It may hit 60 degrees on Christmas Day, but it will come with a sacrifice. The wind will be increasing big time with south winds shifting to the west or southwest by around kickoff Sunday night. The winds might gust over 40 mph.

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Before the weekend, as you can see above, this is the map on Friday morning showing the above freezing temperatures but with somewhat of a mixture of light precipitation. We are expecting no accumulation or problems.  By Christmas Eve morning we are forecasting  a clear sky and this will allow temperatures to drop to around 25 degrees.

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For Christmas Day, take a look at this warm up. It will come with those strong winds, but I will take 60 degrees on Christmas. There will be a few brief showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain is likely by around tailgating gets under way. This should move through quickly, however.

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Go Chiefs. We will update you if we see anything else changing. Watch 41 Action News for details. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Gary

 

The Exit of the Arctic Air

Good Sunday,

The snow is over as we had 1″-4″ across the area.  The bitter Arctic air came flowing in and dropped lows to -9° in KC.  This was the coldest December temperature since December 15, 1989.  The high today will struggle to 10°, but the Arctic air exits by tomorrow and we are in for seasonable cold weather this week, which will feel 30-60 degrees warmer than Sunday morning!

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the pattern change for the week ahead.

Have a great week and Merry Christmas.

Jeff

Ice, Snow and Dangerous Cold

Good Saturday,

Wow! What a weekend of weather as we started with black ice and many accidents.  Thankfully, it is a weekend not a weekday.  The Arctic air is rushing in as we see snow develop to the west.  Here is a weather timeline:

NOW to NOON: A change to light snow and flurries with temperatures falling to 15°.  Surfaces become dusted white

NOON to 3 PM: Snow increases from northwest to southeast as temperatures fall to 11° .  Winds North 15-35 mph

3 PM to 7 PM: Snow, heavy at times with wind chills -10.

7 PM to 10 PM: Snow ends with blowing snow continuing and wind chills -25 to -10.  Actual temperature drops to 5 by 10 PM.  1″-4″ totals.

Sunday morning: The wind lets up 3-5 AM as lows drop to -10 to -5!

Click on the 4 minute video below for an in depth look at this blast of winter.

Have a great weekend, use caution and stay safe and warm.

Jeff

A Winter Blast Arrives

Good evening bloggers,

A winter storm is already affecting the plains. There are many winter weather advisories and an Arctic Blast will be on the move soon. We do have some icing north of Kansas City and it has resulted in some slick spots and traffic problems. Snow is in the forecast for Saturday, and it is still quite tricky. Here is our snowfall forecast map, not a computer generated one:

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As usual, there still some warning signs on this system not quite producing. The cold air will be blasting in, the disturbance is forecast to fall apart just as it passes Kansas City. What if the disturbance weakens earlier by a few hours. Hopefully not, as it would not make many of us very happy.

Here are my snow chances in KC:

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This set up is just incredible. Look at this surface map as of 4 PM this afternoon:

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We will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

Gary

Snow Is Likely Saturday, But How Much?

Good Thursday morning bloggers,

There has been a trend in the models in the direction of higher amounts of snow near Kansas City. We will be monitoring this trend closely. Today we will go over the parameters and then conclude with a forecast.

In the past cycle of this year’s LRC, this storm did produce as it was leaving eastern Kansas. Rod, one of our bloggers, posted his cocorahs (Community Collaboration Rain, Snow, & Hail Network) near Columbia, MO having 0.61″. Columbia’s airport reported over one inch of rain with most falling on the 19th of October. So, this storm did produce as it was passing Kansas City. This does give it more credibility in my mind for a chance of precipitation falling again in this second version of this set-up.

The Set-up:

Let’s begin with this storm system. Where is it now? It is a series of disturbances off the California coast this morning. A lot of Pacific moisture has been tapped and it is spreading out over the central plains this morning as you can see below:

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This storm is not very well organized in the upper levels of the atmosphere, but at least we can see it over the eastern Pacific this morning. The last storm that did not produce a week ago could not be seen very well on the satellite picture. So, this is already something in the favor of this system holding together long enough to produce near Kansas City.

The models have been coming in a bit on the wet side for a storm of this type, but it is really oriented in a somewhat suspect strip from southwest to northeast centered near Kansas City. This next map shows the total melted precipitation forecast by the 06z GFS model:

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Here is a close up look:

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Now, here is something that we must pay close attention to. This is a rather thin strip of precipitation developing over south central or central Kansas and then streaming northeast into northwestern Illinois. This thin strip can easily shift north or south by two to four counties. And, will it be this wet? These are things to monitor as we move to within 24 hours of this possible snow accumulating event. This 0.45″ would likely indicate a six inch bullseye of snow. Is this higher amount of precipitation accurate?

Our Forecast For Kansas City:

  • Friday: Cloudy and gradually warming to above freezing. Some freezing drizzle likely changing to drizzle is possible, if not likely by evening. The longer it waits, the more likely it is to be above freezing
  • Friday Night: Warming up to near 40 degrees, possibly near 50 farther south. Mostly dry with some drizzle possible.
  • Saturday: Cloudy with snow likely. The best chance is during the afternoon and most likely during a 11 AM to 6 PM window. A dusting to 2″ possible. North winds gusting to 40 mph with some blowing and drifting of the small snow storm. If there is 1″ or less the blowing and drifting will not be significant. If it is 2″, then 5 to 6 inch drifts are likely. So, the amount is the big drift maker, combined with the wind. Temperatures crashing into the single digits during the evening with wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero possible.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny and very cold for the Chiefs game, but the wind should calm down with high pressure moving overhead. Even a light to moderate breeze would be quite cold, so hopefully it becomes closer to calm.

The Models:

  • NAM Model: This model just came out, and it again has the coldest solution. This model keeps Kansas City below freezing all day Friday with some light freezing drizzle developing. Then, on Saturday it has the snow moving in around 1 PM and then ending by 6 PM. It produces a total of 0.13″ some of which is drizzle or freezing drizzle. This is only around a 1″ snowfall.
  • GFS Model: The GFS is consistent with its last model run with 0.45″ liquid total and the band has a bullseye just northeast of KC. This would result in a 3 to 6″ snowfall. The wave holds together and before the dry air takes over, KC seems to be in the right spot………on this model. Hang on now, there are other solutions out there.
  • Canadian Model: The Canadian model is much more like the NAM with wide spread dusting to 1″ amounts, possibly a 1 1/2″ to 2″ bulls eye.\
  • European Model: The European model has 2 to 3 inches in a band across the KC viewing area beginning Saturday morning.

The new NAM model shows around the same solution from this morning. We have another two days to track this. Hang on for the ride.

Gary

Tracking Three Main Weather Issues

Good Wednesday,

Today through Thursday will be calm and cold with periods of clouds and highs in the 20s with lows in the teens.  Then, we have three weather issues to track.

1. Friday: Chance of freezing drizzle

2. Saturday: Chance of snow

3. Saturday-Sunday: Arctic Blast

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the big three weather issues facing our region the next 5 days.

Have a great rest of your day.

Jeff

Interesting Weekend

Good Tuesday,

We had one cold front move through last night.  So, today will see highs in the 20s.  Wednesday and Thursday will be dry with periods of clouds as a new cold front arrives Wednesday night.  This will keep our highs around 30° with lows in the teens and 20s.

Then, we turn our attention to Friday-Sunday.  Warmer air will try to move in Friday, but the latest data suggests this will be a tough task and we could see freezing drizzle or drizzle.  Then, Saturday we will have a legitimate Arctic blast with the chance of a period of snow along this front.  Sunday looks brutally cold and this may set us up for the coldest Chiefs game ever!  There are still many questions on how things will evolve for Friday-Sunday.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at this wild weather.

Have a great day.

Jeff