Quantcast

The wetter weather pattern likely continues

Good Saturday afternoon bloggers,

I did my presentation of the LRC at the AMS conference, and I posted some excerpts on the Weather2020 site.  It really went over well and I am pleased with the response.  I am currently on the airplane heading back to Kansas City. And, I just analyzed the pattern:

1

Today is the first day of summer and the weather pattern continues to cycle but weaken.  The jet stream retreats north all the way into late July and early August. As this happens severe weather season usually ends. It has been a rather active ending in Iowa and Nebraska to the north. And, it appears that there will be some more risks up north, and a good chance of some thunderstorms in our area for the next ten days or so which will take us into early July. I love it!

Have a great day, and JD will update you tomorrow.  Here is a look at many of the attendees at the conference:

AMS Entire Group Closer

You can click on the picture for a larger view. Can you pick me out?  I am off through Monday and return on Tuesday.

Gary

Severe weather threat tonight

9p update

Been watching this stuff in Nebraska organize more. Storms are organizing a little better. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe t-storm watch until 3am for the counties highlighted below.
7

And here’s what the radar looks like:
2

The movement is to the E/SE. It appears the greatest risk would be strong wind gusts near 70mph. Some larger hail reports have been noted as well. The radar is showing some bowing signature near Omaha, so I would say wind is the biggest impage with this little complex.
The overall question is: how long will these storms hold together? I will keep watching over this and have an update tonight at 10p.
-JD

Could we finally hit 90 today?

**6:30p update**
The NWS says we officially hit 90° today. Funny, however, because our in-house system is only saying 89… Go figure! Either way, we can now put this behind us and look forward to the first 100° day.
Hit 90

Pre-newscast update

An afternoon like this shows us how nice it was to have those winds the other day! In many locations, the winds have been under 5mph. Toss in all that sunshine and humidity and most people are sweating like a pig at a hog roast.
Check out the 3p heat index values.
5

The heat has also spawned a few afternoon t-storms to our South. A few respectable looking cells near the Paola area. I could see these producing some small hail and gusty winds near 50mph.
2
These are trying to drift to the East, but are mainly stationary. A few lucky locales picking up some good rain it seems.

In the meantime, I am going to keep my eyes to the North. Already seeing storm development in Nebraska this afternoon.
9
My thought is that these storms will grow over the next few hours, then as the evening sets in, they should start to make a turn to the Southeast. If they can maintain, they would drop into Northern Missouri overnight.
The short-range models are still in a bit of disagreement, but just by looking at the radar now, here’s what I am thinking for the overnight period.
3
That area in green would have the best shot at seeing a storm or two roll through overnight. This does NOT mean that everyone in that green area will see a storm. I also believe the storms will lose some of their punch as they arrive.
In any event, should a couple of storm cells make the journey into Northern MO, they will likely leave behind some outflow for the atmosphere to work with tomorrow. I have seen some evidence of this on the midday, high-res RPM model. Also, given how warm it will be Saturday, I think we’ll have a few of the ingredients in place to generate some “heat of the day”, popcorn storms.
4
Here again, will everyone in this area see a storm? No, not at all. But I feel this is the best location for something to pop-up Saturday after about 2p.

I could see a similar setup for Sunday in that a small complex of storms may roll out of Iowa/Nebraska once again and into Northern Missouri Sunday morning. However, I am not as impressed with storm chances that afternoon. At least, not right now. As they say, we have bigger fish to fry.

1

I feel this could be the setup for Monday, which would lead to a rainy and cooler day. Obviously, a lot of hurdles to jump before we get there, but we’ll be tracking it.

In the meantime, I know there are a lot of various things going on around the area tonight and this weekend. For example, Power & Light is hosting a free concert and the Neon Trees will play. Lots of people will be packed in there, I’m sure.
Another location featuring a lot of people: The K. A sell out tonight! If you’re headed to the game, here’s what to expect.
ROYALS

Time for me to get all wired up and get ready for air. Thanks for ready the blog and have a great evening. I’ll see ya on the TV. First I have to go shrink down so I can fit inside there… buy a bigger TV, won’t ya?!

-JD

First look at the newest info for Saturday

Midday update

After some fog this morning in the St. Joseph area, the sunshine has returned. This image is from 9:45a and it shows the lingering clouds to the North and West of the KC area. Also of note, the little “cotton ball” in Nebraska is a small t-storm rolling Eastward across that state.
KS.vis

Here is what that storm looks like on the radar.
9:45a Storm

We should keep a mostly sunny sky across the area today. Higher clouds may thicken up from time to time and by the late afternoon, some fair weather cumulus clouds should form. I’m not expecting rain from those clouds today.

I am still concerned with the potential for rain & storms on Saturday. Off the bat, I believe many of us will stay dry, but as I alluded to yesterday: an overnight storm system in Iowa tonight may roll down into our area by Saturday morning. The leftovers could setup small-scale boundaries that lead to storms forming in the later afternoon.
That all said, the early morning models are still having a tough time sorting out the fine details. This is typical with these smaller MCS events.

Let me give you an idea of what is being shown. This is the 00z run of the high resolution NAM model.
5a Sat NAM 00zRun

At 5a Saturday, it says the small storm system will be in Southern Iowa. The model indicates this will move to the South, into Northern Missouri and then fall apart.

From the 12z RPM model for 5a Saturday, notice the difference in placement. It claims the storm will be in Northern Iowa then, and pushing to the Southeast.
5a Sat RPM 12zRun

It’s these subtle changes that makes a huge difference in our forecast. Should that little storm complex drift off into Eastern Missouri (like the RPM says), then that would be the area for afternoon t-storms to setup. However, should something like the Hi-Res NAM verify, then we’d be looking at a chance of afternoons in the KC area.

The Day 2 (Saturday) Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC now shows Northern Missouri and the bulk of the KC Metro in a slight risk for severe weather. This was issued just after midnight last night.
SPC2
As always, this is still subject to change. Meteorologists across the country are sifting through the 12z (7am) suite of model information right now, as it’s just becoming available. It may be telling a whole new story than the info we had yesterday. The balloons are launched at 7am and then the super-computers start crunching their data shortly after. We don’t start seeing the results until around 10a and the full “run” of some of the models isn’t usually completed until about 1p. I expect the SPC to issue a new update on Saturday by 12:30p today.
***Noon Update**
The SPC has released their new outlook for Saturday. Notice the change? Just based on this alone, I think the newest info is showing storms may stay more in Northern Iowa, than Southern Iowa.
SPC2-2

I’m about to make my way into the station to start looking over all the information and get the forecast in place. As been the case this week, I’m the only meteorologist in the weather center this afternoon, so I’ll have a lot on my plate. I will try to give updates to what I see on Twitter. Otherwise, be looking for the new forecast starting at 4p on 41 Action News. I will work on a blog update as soon as I get the chance, but it may not be posted until after 7p tonight.

By the way, based off the 12z lower resolution NAM, here is what it says will be going on at about 1p on Monday:

At least the confidence in rain on Monday is still… holding water.

Enjoy your Friday, have a beverage of choice for me, and stay cool!
-JD

 

Last day of Spring

Good Morning Bloggers!

Happy Friday to you!  It is going to be a quiet day, but a warm one with temperatures reaching near 90°.  Some of us will get up into the lower 90s later on and it will be a bit steamy.  This hot weather will continue through the weekend, so if you are heading out to a Royals game stay cool.

royals

A big change in our forecast is on the way late weekend and we are going to talk about that right now.  Another storm system will be making its way into the area by Sunday evening, this will bring our next round of showers and thunderstorms.  This looks to be a round of heavy rainfall at this point as the low tracks right through the area and the  trailing cold front pushes through for the middle of the week.  It is still several days out and a lot can change, but let’s look at what the models are showing right now.

First we have the GFS model for Monday 12z:

GFS
ECMWF 12Z:

ECMWF

Both of this models have the heaviest rain just off to the west of us, but we will watch this evolve over the course of the next few days.  The NAM doesn’t have as much rain for us in the latest run, but again something to watch.

GFS1

The Weather Prediction Center has us with up to 3.5″ of rain by the time this storm exits on Tuesday.

dishwasher

We will have to watch!  Just enjoy this weekend & Happy Summer!

Kalee Dionne

The summer countdown

A quick update for this evening…

Showers and isolated t-storms got going earlier today; a little sooner than expected, but that turned out to be a good thing. The lingering clouds kept us from picking up too much sunshine, which would have led to instability and thus, the potential for severe weather. We did see some evidence of this as one thunderstorm rapidly developed just North of Topeka at about 6:45p.

By 9p, that lone cell was still hanging around, trying to inch closer to KC.
9

I expect this to continue to fall apart and dissipate in the next couple of hours. For the rest of the night, we should remain dry. But it will stay humid.

How much rain fell today? Official reports won’t be published until tomorrow morning, but based on radar estimates, here’s how it looks.
9
Like we discussed yesterday, not everyone picked up the rain. And in some locales, it was pretty impressive. If you have a backyard rain gauge measurement, let us know.

Many are looking toward the weekend and the first day of Summer. The red-hot Royals are back in town (I’m going to pretend the loss on Thursday never happened).
5

As you can see, highs will be near 90° for the next few days. Also not expecting a lot of wind…which may not be a good thing! The wind was helping it feel just a little cooler.

I will be paying attention to early Saturday morning and Sunday morning. I have a feeling we could see leftovers from storm complexes to our North that may dip into Northern Missouri. Should one of these put down an outflow boundary, it could mess with the forecast a bit (leading to more cloud cover than expected).

I could slap up a forecast model chart, but I don’t feel like the models have this handled too well. Matter of fact, I can’t recall one model that handled TODAY well. And again, it will greatly depend on some very microscale conditions that models don’t typically handle well anyway.  I will certainly be looking over all the information tomorrow and try to provide more specifics in my evening update.

-JD

Storms move back in

Morning Bloggers!

Storms starting to fire up this morning.  Let us know what you see throughout the day because the storms will become a little more widespread later this afternoon.

Here is a look at radar:

radar

We will have another update later this afternoon

Kalee

Officially NOT the hottest day of the year

At 3p this afternoon, we *thought* Kansas City International airport (where the official readings are taken) hit 90°. Our in-house systems are showing this, so no doubt many TV stations and others are saying it as well. BUT the National Weather Service is saying we only hit 31.7°C, which is 89.1°F at 2:44pm today. So… no dice! They have the final say and keep the record books. Here’s their 7pm Climo Report for the day showing the 89°.

Wed High

_________________________________________________________
For those wondering, we have not seen 90 degree temperatures at KCI since September of last year.

2

Moving into Thursday, we go from steamy to stormy. An advancing cold front could provide a few afternoon to evening thunderstorms. I think they will be fairly isolated.
4

The Storm Prediction Center has placed part of our area in a “slight risk” for severe weather Thursday.

9

The greatest risks appear to be hail and high winds. I think we could see some rapidly developing storms that produce hail near quarter to golfball size, then those storms would start to fall apart.  One or two may decide to maintain strength, but at this time, it does not appear to be an “outbreak” of severe weather for our area. The feeling I have is that we’ll see isolated pockets of stronger storms and not everyone will see severe weather. Matter of fact, there will probably be several areas that do not see rain or storms at all. This certainly won’t be like what we saw a week or so ago with heavy soaking rains.

Showers may linger into early Friday morning, then taper off. It appears we’ll go back to hot, dry, & humid as we start the weekend. Indications from the models suggest our next best chance for rain/storms will hold off until Sunday night into Monday morning. Might be a great weekend for the pool!

As always, our team will track the rain and storms and give you the latest on air and online. Stay cool this evening!

-JD

By the way, here’s an update on the Pilger, Nebraska tornadoes from Monday night. *FOUR* EF-4 tornadoes. Wow. Thanks to the NWS Omaha for the image.

Where are the sprinklers?

Good Morning Bloggers!

Here we go again! Love the heat though after the brutal winter we had here in Kansas City.  Let’s start with a beauty shot this morning from our cameras because they make me happy.

ECMWF

We will have a mix of sun and clouds today as we stay in the warm sector of the storm system.  We will see rain chances increase as the trailing cold front sweeps across the state of Kansas later today.  Best chance for rain will move in tomorrow.  Here is where the cold front is right now:

dishwasher

Even though we will be dry today there is a Flood Warning for the Missouri River from St. Joseph, MO up to the state line of Iowa because of thunderstorms the last several days north in Nebraska and Iowa.  The heavy rain there is flowing downstream and causing flooding concerns here.  So, remember if you see water over the road turn around because even a foot of water can sweep away large vehicles.

Do we have any major flooding concerns other than heavy rain to our north?  We have several chances of thunderstorms starting tomorrow through the weekend, but it won’t be widespread.  The most active day will be Thursday as the cold front moves in, but then Friday afternoon through Sunday will be thunderstorms popping up during the peak heating of the day.  The Weather Prediction Center 3 day outlook for rainfall has us really an inch or less from now through Saturday morning.

GFS1

Have a great day! I may hit the pool…What will you do?

Kalee Dionne

The heat goes on

By and large, we’ll call this a quiet day across the area. No major storms to track and no records set. That said, we still do have some “weather” out there! Sticky conditions will continue into tonight thanks to those high dew points (in the 70s).
5

I was a little surprised the clouds hung around as long as they did this morning. And seemingly, they held right over the KC Metro area. This lead to us picking up less sunshine, thus kept a lid on our highs.
6
I don’t see the airmass we’re in moving out of here for Wednesday, so it will be more of the same: Hot, hazy, humid, with a good amount of SW wind. One aspect I am struggling with: cloud cover. Yet again the models aren’t really picking up on it for tonight. But, if it happened this morning, I don’t see why it won’t happen again tomorrow. So I am going to go ahead and forecast some thicker areas of clouds for tomorrow morning, but I am thinking they may clear a little sooner in the afternoon.  We’re still shooting for a high of 91° in KC. Toss in the humidity, it’s going to feel more like 100° (or more).

Still tracking a very weak cold front to nudge into the vicinity on Thursday. The problem here: I don’t see any real “cold” air behind this thing! Sure we’re getting into semantics, but many expect a cold front to bring a noticeable drop in temperature. However, the definition of a cold front simply means the air behind the front is cooler than the air it’s replacing. So, we’ll go from 91° to 85°. Better grab the sweater, Heather!
4

Rain odds for Thursday still look a little spotty to me. I’d say we have a better shot of rain and a few storms after the lunch hour on Thursday. But at this time, I’m not overly impressed that we’ll see widespread rain across the area.

This front will waver across the area into Friday before it’s replaced by another weak front for the weekend. What does all that mean? It will allow for a minimal amount of “lift” (or oomph) in the atmosphere. Add that to daytime heating and a fair amount of moisture, and you get a recipe for afternoon “popcorn” storms. We saw this a few weeks ago: heat of the day (after 2p) storms that quickly fire up and then fall apart.

Due to this, you’ll see me carrying small chances of rain in the forecast though the weekend. My confidence goes up just a bit more on Sunday that we’ll see something given that another wave in the atmosphere should be crossing over us. But at this point, we’re getting to the edge of the forecast spectrum (in my view) and a lot of the finer details can (and will) change.

When it comes to temperatures, we’ll be riding above the average for a while.
3 PM

Summer “officially” starts at 5:51am on Saturday. Looks like it will feel like it too.

For those that may have missed it, the National Weather Service out of Omaha has done their assessment of the tornadoes in Northeast Nebraska. They have given a preliminary rating to the tornado that hit Pilger.
2
Keep in mind this may still changed based on other data they look at.

They have also given a map for the tracks of the various tornadoes that hit the area Monday.
3pmSurveyupdate.png

Looking closely enough, you can see the path the EF-4 tornado took put it right through the town of Pilger.
Now, late tonight, Northeast Nebraska is getting hit with another tornado. These people don’t need that right now. We’ll continue to track this and give you updates on 41 Action News.

To end this blog entry on a happier note, here’s how it may feel outside tomorrow:

But hey, the wind is helping. Otherwise, that air would be still and humid. You’d sweat just standing there! Hopefully you find a way to stay cool.

-JD