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Very Nice Through Saturday, But Sunday…

Good Thursday morning bloggers,

The Big 12 Championship is in town and it could not be timed any better as the weather will be almost perfect today, Friday and Saturday.  There will be abundant sunshine, not that much wind and highs 60° or higher.

It is not just nice here, but all across the United States.

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Here is the forecast through Saturday with the Sprint Center and P&L in the background.  This is a shot from our One Park Place Condominiums Skyview.

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The weather becomes more complex Saturday night and Sunday.  This will make the second half of the weekend not nearly as nice.  Now Saturday will be a very nice day with highs well into the 60s and a light wind.  However, while we are enjoying the great weather, cold blasts will be approaching from the northwest and northeast, the walls will be closing in on us. As these fronts head towards us, a storm system will be dropping southeast through the Rockies into the southern Plains.  Rain and thunderstorms will form across Oklahoma and Texas.  Our region will be on the northern edge of the influence of the storm system.  However, due to the converging fronts and the proximity of the storm system, we will have a chance for a few showers/thunderstorms Saturday night.  Then, Sunday will be windy and colder with highs in the 30s and 40s.  An area of rain and even wet snow will be possible to the south, not that far away, as the storm system organizes in the southern Plains.  We will have to watch this closely.

Here is the surface forecast map for 7 PM Saturday.  The cold fronts are approaching!

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Have a great day and enjoy the nice weather!

Jeff Penner

 

A quiet weather pattern for now!

Good evening bloggers,

It’s inching closer to Snake Saturday and St. Patrick’s Day, and the weather is looking nice!  Unfortunately, the stormy part of the pattern will be returning near the end of the month, and it is timed for the first week or two of Major League Baseball. Weather2020 issued a press release earlier this week with the weather forecasts for all of the opening day games.  You can read it here:  Major League Baseball’s Opening Day Forecasts

This next storm system is likely going to go around Kansas City as energy dives in to our west.  A cold front will move through Saturday night, and after a brief cold spell Sunday, it warms up big time again by around Monday.  The pattern is still cycling, and the later March into April version will produce increasing chances of thunderstorms with possibly some severe weather, and still a chance of one or two more winter storms.

Have a great day, and we will update the blog later this morning.

Gary

Great Weather Returns For The Big 12 Championship

Good morning bloggers,

We just experienced a rather rare weather day in Kansas City history.  It went from 80° to snow in just six to eight hours across the KC metro area:

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KCI Airport received 0.44″ liquid last night which is very nice, but we will need more.  It will mostly be dry for a while until the Super Bowl part of the weather pattern approaches and cycles back through later this month.

Have a great day and we will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight. We are broadcasting live from the Big 12 Championship the next few days!

Gary

Rapid Evening Development: Snow, Rain, & Thunderstorms!

Good evening bloggers,

9 PM Update:

It’s snowing in St. Joseph at 9 PM with winds gusting to 38 mph. We will be tracking this area of snow, rain, and thunderstorms at 10 PM!

I was just on the air at 6 PM, Jack Harry is finishing his sports now. During the past hour we have had rapid development of rain and it is continuing to increase.  Here is the 7 PM surface map showing the colder air moving in, but this is far from an Arctic blast this time. Less than two weeks ago it was 2 degrees outside and sleeting, and today it was near 80° and now we are talking snow.

7 PM

The precipitation continues to increase. I will post a radar map here around 8 PM. Let’s track this together.

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The band of snow to our northwest is heading directly towards Kansas City. Today’s high was 80 degrees! Wow! And, it just may snow before midnight.  We will  have all of the details on 41 Action News at 10 PM.

Gary

Dramatic 18 Hours Ahead Of Us!

Good morning bloggers,

We have a dramatic weather day in the forecast!  Between now and 3 AM there will be a huge warm-up to near 80 degrees near Kansas City, a strong cold front blasting through, winds increasing to 40 or 50 mph, rain, thunderstorms, and snow! There is a chance of a quick accumulation of snow between midnight and 5 AM before the storm intensifies and moves east. This is another storm our weather team has been forecasting for over 50 days now.  You can read all about it on the Weathe2020 Blog.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now until 5 PM:  Warming up under a sunny sky. High:  77 north to 81 south.  South winds 10-20 mph.
  • 5 PM – midnight:  Increasing clouds with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures dropping into the 30s.  Becoming very windy with northwest winds gusting to 50 mph.
  • Midnight – 5 AM: Rain changing to snow with accumulations likely northeast and a chance of accumulations south of I-70. Over 4 inches could accumulate from this fast moving storm with the most likely spot being northeast of a Maryville to Chillicothe line.  Windy with northwest winds 25-50 mph.  Temperatures dropping to 28°
  • Wednesday: Rapidly clearing sky with winds strong early, diminishing during the day.  High: 42°

Weather Discussion:

Here is the first map, from last night’s update, which shows the 850 mb flow valid at 1 PM today. This is quite the dramatic and developing storm that will be approaching Kansas City this evening:

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The temperature contrast will be strong and there will be a chance of some thunderstorms, and even some hail possible in the first thunderstorms that develop. This did happen the first time this part of the weather pattern cycled through us in November, the day before a major severe weather outbreak to our east.

2What happens next will be highly dependent on the intensifying upper level storm, the X. The X is the center of highest vorticity, something we call the “vort max”.  This system is now forecast to begin strengthening this afternoon and then track south of Kansas City. If this system becomes strong enough and tracks south of your location, then the potential for snow is much enhanced. It will still be dependent on the strength and orientation of this system. Right now it appears that it will be strong enough to help finish off this dramatic weather day with snow.

1This next map shows the 500 mb flow valid at 4 AM. The storm is forecast to strengthen and take a favorable track for producing heavier precipitation before it exits our area rapidly by sunrise Wednesday.  How this evolves exactly is something we will be tracking on 41 Action News later this afternoon and evening. We will warm up ahead of this system and then the cold front will move through and be followed by strong winds possibly gusting to 50 mph or stronger overnight.  The windows will be rattling tonight.

Here is the simulated radar forecast for around or just after midnight:

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The new data is coming in and continuing the trend of last night’s models. The storm will arrive tonight and it should be a fascinating weather day for us. I will update the blog this evening. I am doing severe weather spotter training at the station at 10 AM and 2:30 PM. We will have a spotter meeting at Nebraska Furniture Mart April 5th if anyone wants to come to that. More on that event soon.

Thank you so much for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. I did get up at 4:30 AM to analyze this, and I will finish this update after the new data begins trickling in!  We will keep you updated on 41 Action News today and tonight as this storm develops and moves our way.

Gary

Monday Night Update

Good late evening bloggers,

Wow, look at this forecast map.  This is the 850 mb forecast map valid at 1 PM Tuesday:

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What do you think of this? The 12 hour period from 3 PM to 3 AM Tuesday into Tuesday night will be quite fascinating. I will be discussing this in detail on Tuesday morning. It’s March Madness, and of course I will also be showing the latest data on 41 Action News at 10 PM, and then Kalee Dionne is on beginning at 4:30 AM.  Have a great night.

Gary

Huge Warm-Up Today Into Tuesday

Good morning bloggers,

Temperatures will be surging into the 70s this afternoon and near 80 degrees just south of Kansas City Tuesday before the next cold front moves through.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds. Much warmer. Our first 70 degree day in 114 days:  Weather2020 Blog  Forecast High:  75°
  • Tonight:  Mostly clear and cool. Low:  46°
  • Tuesday: A cold front will move through by the end of the day with highs 60s north to near 80° south
  • Tuesday night: A chance of a few showers or thunderstorms, then a chance of snow mainly north.  Low:  29°

Weather Discussion:

A storm is moving our way, but once again we will not be in the major precipitation area of this storm. The heavier precipitation will be across Iowa and Nebraska, and then from eastern Missouri all the way to New York during the next few days.  We will get to enjoy this warm-up at least:

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This map, above, shows the flow and forecast temperatures at the 850 mb level, or around 5,000 feet up. Another one of those powerful temperature contrasts is forming as the storm moves out into the plains.  Here is the temperature forecast for Tuesday afternoon.  The Tuesday weather forecast for high temperatures will be a challenge as the cold front will be racing our way later in the day.  This next map shows that temperature contrast tomorrow afternoon:

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As the storm moves by colder air will rush in. Northern Missouri has the best chance of experiencing a quick band of snow Tuesday evening before the dry air takes over by Wednesday.  The data now come in one hour later due to the time change.  And, as of 9:10 AM, the NAM has us in the warm sector through most of the heating time period on Tuesday, so we will likely get that second warmer day that we have been predicting for tomorrow.  Then, the cold front will blow through with snow near the Iowa/Missouri border.  The upper level storm appears that it will track north of Kansas City tomorrow night, and this would keep that chance of any significant snow coming farther south at a very low chance.  We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Look at this:

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It will be interesting to see if this can actually happen as it would be in the 70s Tuesday afternoon and snow just a few hours later, if this is correct.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog.  Have a great Monday!

Gary

Weathering the madness of March

It would not be March in the Kansas City area if we weren’t talking about 70-degree temperatures and snow chances all withing 48 hours of each other. Let’s focus on that warm up first, since MANY are ready for winter to pack its bags and leave.

Our sky will clear out overnight into Sunday and the winds will move to the Southwest. This is a classic setup for warmer air to invade the area, pretty much drawing in the warmer air from the Desert Southwest.
SunChart
Also factor in the higher angle of the sun, plus the increasing length of daylight, we should see a nice spike in temperatures.
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Speaking of winds, those will be on the increase for Sunday and into Monday, with sustained speeds around 15 to 25 MPH and gusts over 30 MPH possible.
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Monday might be the “best” day off all, when it comes to warmer temperatures. Expect highs to surge into the 70s; some of the warmest air we have seen since November 16th (the last time KC hit 70°).
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Just as fast as it gets warm, we’ve got change to discuss. By Tuesday night a cold front will be knocking on our doorstep. As you can imagine, this will bring an end to the 70s and a return to more winter-like weather.  And, this is a storm that we have been tracking for weeks to arrive this week. It is right on schedule and you can read about it on the Weather2020.com blog:  LRC In Cycle 3
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Now, this is where we have some kinks in the forecast models. If you look at the GFS, the bulk of the precip for this storm goes off to our East.
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However, the ECMWF (European) model says the moisture lands right on top of KC.
Wed-Eruo
If the Euro verifies, it would suggest at least a few inches of snow across the area. But again, this is just a model and merely a suggestion of what may occur. That said, it should be noted that the Euro handled our previous system pretty well in regard to snowfall amounts (it was the only model suggesting under 5″ of snow in Kansas City last weekend).  You can bet this is a system we will closely monitor with each new run of data.

In any event, this is what the month of March is all about in our area: a weather buffet with a little bit of everything possible. So far this month we’ve seen snow, sleet, and single digit highs. Now, sunshine and 70s are just around the corner. It’s only fitting we continue the tug-o-war as we move to the middle of the month.

For those hoping/wanting/wishing for Spring to arrive and stay, you may have to wait a little longer. And for those begging/pleading/dreaming of one more round of winter, you may just get it; sooner than later.

Spring install
Here’s to hoping your favorite weather happens outside of your door this week.
-JD

Cold air moves back in….time change tonight

Good morning bloggers,

After a 61° day yesterday, the cold air has moved back in.  The warm air will return fast, however, and Sunday and Monday feature a big warm-up.  The area of precipitation west of Kansas City is struggling and will likely not quite make it into our area. This brief cold shot will move out by morning, and then we have a huge warm-up in the forecast for Sunday into Monday before our next cold front comes through. Overall, we are in a dry stretch for another couple of weeks before the Super Bowl part of the weather pattern returns which will bring us those four or five storm systems once again. What will the late March and April versions bring us?

Kansas City Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today: Cloudy & cold with some afternoon sunshine filtering through.  North winds 10-20 mph creating cold wind chills.  High:  41°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny and much warmer with southwest winds 10-20 mph by afternoon.  High:  61°
  • Monday:  Mostly sunny and even warmer. Southwest winds 10-20 mph.  High:  73° First 70 degree day in 114 days!

Have a great Sunday. JD Rudd will try to update the blog later today.

Gary

Warm today followed by a wintry mix overnight into Saturday

Good morning bloggers,

We are off to a sunny start, but clouds will continue increase into the afternoon.   The great news are that temperatures will be much warmer with highs in upper 50s.

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Enjoy today’s temperatures because we are back to colder weather and a chance for a mixed bag of precipitation overnight into Saturday.

The Set Up: a cold front will move through this afternoon and colder air will sink in across the region.  There may be a few showers this evening.

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Into early Saturday morning there will be snow, sleet across parts of the KC metro area, which may cause slick spots on.  This moisture will continue to move east and southeast.

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During the middle of day, snow and sleet will be possible across I-70 and areas south, with rain across the southeast.  Rain totals will be 0.25 to 0.50 an inch across that region.

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Warming Back Up:  Sunday’s temperatures will rebound nicely with highs in the lower 60s.  Monday will be even warmer with highs in the lower 70s.

REMINDER: Daylight Saving Time begins on Sunday 2 AM.  Set your clocks ahead one hour before you go to bed on Saturday night, or else you’ll be one hour late on Sunday morning!  This is also a great time to change the batteries in your smoke alarms.

SPRING

 

Have a great Friday,

Michelle