Another storm will move across the deep south. It will contain a mix bag of precipitation with rain, ice, and snow in the forecast. It will move south this evening affecting Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
A look at HPC graphical forecasts.
By Tuesday morning, much of the deep south will be canvased with precipitation. Southern Arkansas will have an average of 2 inches of snowfall. Southern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama to Georgia will have rain and thunderstorms.
By Wednesday morning, the storm will move east still affecting Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. Turning over to snow for much of these areas.
The storm will take a turn to the north and affect the mid-Atlantic states in the middle of this week where some areas through the eastern part of West Virginia, the western half of Virginia, Maryland and the southern half of New Jersey could potentially see half a foot of snow. Much of these areas are under a Winter Storm Watch for Thursday.
A look at GFS 12Z model run for Tuesday morning from Penn State’s e wall.
And by Wednesday night, the system is still planted in the south
Through the latter half of the week, it’ll move along the eastern seaboard. Rain along the coast, with snow/sleet further inland about 50 miles.
The storm that will move across the southeast will help areas like southern Texas and Louisiana that are in need rain.
The Drought Monitor that was posted last Thursday still shows isolated areas like southern Alabama and isolated pockets across the coasts of North and south Carolina still are ‘abnormally dry.’
Closer to home. We will have a chance for light snow early Wednesday morning and then we are in for a warm-up! Much of the snow will melt off, however we still run the risk of refreezing during the overnight hours.
Have a good Monday afternoon,
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Good Sunday morning bloggers,
For all of you snow lovers out there (myself included) we have another round snow for today.
This morning snow is across NE KS to NW MO and will continue to track to the KC metro area around 9 or 10 AM. Snow will continue to persist until this evening, and will come to end around dinner time.
After this system moves out, there will be anywhere between a dusting to two inches of snow.
The cold front that moved through yesterday evening, brought the region cold air. With cold air in place and snow likely today, temps will continue to fall into the afternoon. Therefore, enjoy the warmer temps we are experiencing this morning, because it’ll turn even colder today!
Good news: we break out of the below freezing temps. We will reach 40s later this week. Check out this 7Day forecast:
Stay warm friends,
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What a week it has been! Our first significant snow storm of the year has come and gone. Many wanted snow and they got it! Now, those same people are already asking, “when is the next one!?”. I’ve got a feeling it isn’t too far away. Perhaps toward the third week of this month. However, between now and then we still have a few chances for small bouts of the fluffy frozen precip.
Just to get you up to speed, here is where we currently stand on snowfall for the season. I’ve added a comparison to last year’s snow total, plus where the “normal” value is supposed to be.
As you can see, we are already above the typical normal and chasing the snow number from last year. I was the bold one who forecast a total of 36″ for the season. Could that prediction pay off? We’re on the right track!
Let’s spend a little time talking about the snow potential for Sunday. It *does* exist. But don’t get too excited, snow-lovers. It will be nothing like what hit the area on Tuesday (meaning: nothing significant). This is just a weak little wave floating through the area. That said, there will be a little bit of moisture for this system to work with. Most of the models indicate it’s nothing more than about two inches at most. For some, it will may only amount to a dusting. Almost as if Frosty the Snowman were to sneeze on your car.
Given the information I have looked at today (Saturday), I feel the forecast data is pretty similar in nature for the outcome of the snowfall Sunday. I do like the way the RPM model is handling things and below you’ll see its printout for snowfall, ending at 10p Sunday.
To breakdown the timing of snow, I feel our best odds will be just after the lunch hour on Sunday. I have put together this graphic to give you a better idea of what I think will happen.
So again, I believe we’re in for a very small round of snow on Sunday (plus colder temperatures too). Given all the snow already on the ground, you may not notice anything new has fallen! Still, it will add to our total snowfall for the year; pushing that number closer to 36″.
Touching on high temps for just a second, we made it into the upper 20s Saturday. We’ll be lucky to hit the middle teens Sunday afternoon. I don’t see the thermometer going above 20 degrees again until Wednesday afternoon.
Now, for those who have had enough of the snow (Gary, stop reading now. Please. Don’t read on!)… indications are we’ve got some snow-melting days coming our way. We have to wait and get through a few frigid days first. Matter of fact, Tuesday morning could be bone-chilling cold. Lows look to dip below zero to start the day Tuesday.
You know, I would not be surprised if you see snowmen in line at the airport, looking for flights to a warmer climate… **crickets**
Okay then, I’ll stick to weather and leave the jokes to the professionals.
We should begin a sharp turnaround on Wednesday. Indications are we highs will be in the 40s every afternoon from Wednesday through next Saturday. Take a look at the surface prog for Friday afternoon. 40s for us, 50s across most of Kansas! All the cold air gets shoved back toward the Great Lakes.
That surge of warm air is going to be a welcome sight to many (but not all, I know this). Either way, it will melt a bit of this snow and that’s going to cause for a slushy mess. Stock up on that washer fluid now!
Also remember that there is more winter left to go. The break in the cold and snow will be nice, but winter isn’t done with us yet. Not by a long shot.
Enjoy the Olympic games on your 41 Action News station and don’t forget to join us at 5 & 6p for the latest, plus again at 10:35p for a wrap up of the day’s news, weather, & sports. I’ll see you there.
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Good Friday bloggers,
The cold air is stuck across much of the USA and we are in the middle of it. We will have a small moderation Saturday to near 30, but a new Arctic front will move through Saturday night. There has been a massive Arctic air mass over Canada for much of the winter, and this years pattern has been conducive to bringing one blast after another into the USA. This weekend will be no exception. The other issue keeping the cold going is the extensive snow pack across the Plains, Midwest and into New England.
The map below is for late Saturday night, and here comes more Arctic air. It will take until the end of next week to see highs crack freezing. It was 8 PM on January 30th when the temperatures dipped below 32 and we have not returned! Tonight at 8 PM that will make 192 hours below 32! Ouch!
What about snow? Well, the next 3-4 days we will be tracking small disturbances racing west to east across the USA. Each one of these disturbances will bring clouds and a streak of flurries and light snow. The first one is for today. There is a very light snow on Topeka radar, but only a few flakes are making it to the ground. There is a second small system for later tonight as warmer air tries to move in. This may bring a dusting. There is a third system Saturday night along the Arctic front. This has the potential to bring a small streak of a dusting-1″. Then, there is a fourth system to watch for Sunday night-Monday. It is slightly bigger and will mostly track to the south. Areas from I-44 south could see a period of snow and ice. Our area may get clipped and there is another chance for a dusting-1″. The chance for any of these events is about 20-30%. They are small and fast-moving and will have to be taken one at a time as the computer models have a hard time picking these up.
Below is the radar from 1030 AM. Manhattan and Topeka are no reporting snow, but I saw a few snowflakes on may way into work this morning.
Stay warm and have a great weekend!
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Good Morning Bloggers!
Hope you are staying warm. Thank goodness for the clouds last night, so we didn’t drop to -15°! We are all still below zero this morning and with the wind it feels like -15° to -30°…so whatever ha!
It is nice to have a big snow event, but now that it is done I’m ready for some warm temperatures. Looking ahead at the long range warmth isn’t a term I would use. We have a few chances for snow within the next seven days, but nothing that will compare to this past Tuesday.
The first chance for snow will be Friday night into Saturday. This will be the first of a couple of shortwave troughs that swing through the area through the next week. We won’t have a lot of moisture to work with for overnight Friday and Saturday morning, so right now this chance for snow isn’t impressive. Now Monday could be a different story.
GFS 12Z MONDAY
ECMWF 12Z MONDAY
If the pattern lines up with the LRC than the main part of this storm will stay to the south of us, but we will keep an eye on it through the weekend.
Stay warm with single digits today!
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The winter storm that brought heavy snowfall across much of the region is coming to end this morning. There is moisture wrapping around the low, which is why we are still waking up to light snow this morning. KCI broke the record for yesterday (Tuesday’s February 4th) for snowfall. The airport received 7.5 inches of snow, the previous record was 7.4.
Before I give you area snowfall totals, the 41 Action News Weather team wants to thank everyone for the pictures and snow reports. We appreciate you all! As always, continue to send us pictures on how you are enjoying this snow.
Below are some snowfall reports per NWS Kansas City (this is not all of them, these are reports from trained spotters, emergency management agencies and law enforcement).
Our focus now turns to blowing snow and snow drifts, plus the arctic cold to move in later tonight.
There is a tight pressure gradient across the region so the winds will not help the shoveling/cleaning up process. The snow we already got on the ground plus the winds will cause snow drifts and some blowing snow.
With the snow on the ground, afternoon temps will not warm up for today. We will stay in the single digits for the day.
As the arctic blast continues to move in, we may reach some record cold temperatures overnight. Here is the low temperatures we are expecting by tomorrow morning.
I know it is cold outside, but I thought I could try to warm up your hearts with this adorable photo of one of my dogs, Walter, playing in the snow.
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Happy Snowsday, everyone!
Many have been asking for it and we’ve been telling you it would happen: a significant snow event for the first part of February. I’m pretty sure everyone has seen at least a couple of inches of snow so far today. We’ve been on air and online all day tracking this system. Here in the weather center, we’ve had a few pull-our-hair-out moments as we watched the dry slot try to sneak this way. Basically, the dry slot would shut off the snow. This is how it looked earlier at around 1p:
Now, at just after 5:30p, this is the current water vapor image, showing the dry slot location.
The nose of the dry slot is close to the KC area. Locales just to the North of Metro are seeing some moderate to heavy snow bands as we speak. Take a look at this animated radar loop:
As you can see, that dry air has moved into SE Kansas and most of Southern Missouri. As this system continues to wind around us, we expect to pick up a little more snow on the back edge of the system. Another factor will be a bit of blowing snow later tonight as the winds increase to about 20-30mph. This may make it look like it’s snowing intensely even though the snow may have stopped. Just something to keep in mind for the overnight and early morning hours.
Additionally, as we’ve been telling you, temps will drop off tonight into tomorrow. When you factor in those winds, it’s going to feel even colder. If you have to venture out, be sure to bundle up!
I’m sure many are wanting to know how much snow has fallen today. Below are two printouts via the NWS of recent snowfall reports. I’ve included a report from Central Kansas, as they have seen some very impressive snow amounts today. The far right column is snowfall (in inches) and the far left is the time of the report.
From Central Kansas (Wichita NWS office)
Yes, these amounts will increase in many areas as we continue through the night. What are you seeing? We’ve received MANY photos/reports today (thank you!) of the snowfall. Keep them coming!
We’ll be back on the air for a special hour long 6p newscast. Join us!
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Good Tuesday bloggers,
Hopefully, you are able to read this at home and do not have to get out on the roads. The storm has arrived and it will be a steady moderate to at times heavy snow across all of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Snowfall rates will be at 1/4″ to 1/2″ per hour with some hours seeing rates at 1/2″ to 1″ per hour. The below radar image is from 930 AM. The entire viewing area is in moderate snow. There will be bands of heavy snow through the day. The first one is coming in from the south as I write this blog.
The storm responsible for this snow is taking a perfect track from southwest to northeast through the southern Plains. It is negatively tilted, which means it is aligned from northwest to southeast. This is a much stronger orientation. This storm will be exiting tonight.
Once the storm exits, the emphasis will shift from the snow to the wind and Arctic blast. Overnight the wind will increase to 15-25 mph from the north with gusts to 30-35 mph as the pressure gradient tightens in between the exiting storm and strong Arctic high pressure. This will not only create blowing snow, but also dangerous wind chills of -30° to -20°.
Then below look at this. Wednesday night the sky will clear as the Arctic high pressure settles over a fresh and deep snow pack. This is the perfect set up for maximizing cooling. So, this is incredible lows will likely reach -15°! The area in white is lows around -20°! The only thing that could keep temperatures from dropping this low is clouds that will come in from the west. The longer they wait the colder we will get, Wow! The last time I remember this kind of cold was December 22-23, 1989 when we dropped to -23°, the coldest temperature ever recorded in KC.
Stay safe and warm and enjoy the storm.
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Good Monday bloggers,
Our biggest winter storm of the season is on its way. Temperatures from the surface to the top of the atmosphere will be below 32° across the entire region. So, this means the precipitation type for all locations will be snow. We will not have to worry about sleet or freezing rain, so this is good news right? This is a large storm and will keep amounts pretty uniform across the entire viewing area.
Here is the time line of events:
Tonight, 6 PM to 4 AM: Dry with increasing clouds. As you can see at 1 AM the snow is forming out in central Kansas.
4 AM TO 8 AM Tuesday: Snow spreads in from the west and increases in intensity. The morning rush hour WILL be impacted by beginning of the storm. Since temperatures will be so cold, the first snow flakes will stick. By 8 AM 1″-2″ of snow will likely have fallen.
8 AM to 9 PM Tuesday: Snow will be widespread, heavy at times. The wind will not be an issue at this time.
9 PM TO MIDNIGHT Tuesday: The snow will taper to light snow and flurries with accumulations in all areas of 6″ to 8″. There will likely be pockets of 8″-10″, but that is hard to pinpoint at this time. We put the bulls eye to the west for the moment, but that is subject to change.
MIDNIGHT TO 4 PM Wednesday: The main snow will be over, but other issues will develop. First, there will be lingering light snow and flurries through Wednesday morning with a new dusting-1″ possible. Second, the wind will be increasing from the north with gusts 25-35 mph, creating blowing snow. Third, dangerously cold Arctic air will pour south. Air temperatures will be near zero, but those wind gusts of 25-35 mph will bring wind chills down to -30° to -20°!
4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday: The sky will clear, the wind will diminish, but lows Thursday morning will likely drop to -15° to -10!
This is a significant winter storm, and the biggest of the season so far. If you have to get out and go to work, or for any other reason, it pays to be prepared. The most dangerous situation is if you get stuck in the middle of nowhere in your car. There are some simple items to pack in your car to prepare for the winter storm in case something unforeseen happens.
If you have pictures, share them with us on Twitter, Facebook or send them to firstname.lastname@example.org
The kids will likely have a snow day Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday! Ahh…to be young again!
Enjoy the snow and be careful!
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Happy Super Sunday!
Many eyes (tonight) will be on the big game happening on the East coast. But for us Meteorologists, we’re watching the big setup on the West coast. We’re already seeing our next storm system start to move into the US.
With the storm now making it over land, we’ll be able to get better data from it and an idea of where it will track. As always, it’s the overall track of this storm that will matter most. Already the forecast models have been a little too “out of sorts” for my liking.
Take a look at what the NAM thought would happen by Tuesday night, this from the Saturday evening set of forecast data.
And today, at 18z (Noon), this is how it changed.
I suspect we’ll see a few more changes in the forecast track. This is going to make it tough to give an accurate, dependable forecast this far in advance. With that said, it’s our job to provide you with an idea of what may happen. So, here is an early look at possible snowfall.
Again, use this as a general guide. I have a feeling we’ll see some pockets of “plus-2 inches”. Meaning some towns in the 4-6″ color could see 7-8″, and some locales in the 2-4″ color could see near 6″. It happens with most snow storms; thanks to convective banding. It’s just like in the spring time when intense rain falls over a small geographic area. Snow tends to do something similar and it gives us a collective stomach ache because of how it can ruin a good forecast! Right now, let’s use the image above as an average. We will continue to go over the latest data and update things as needed.
And with all this in mind, the NWS has already posted a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday.
I would recommend using Monday to plan and prepare in the event heavier snow amounts develop. While I do not think this will be a crippling snowstorm, it’s possible some isolated locales could pick up some hefty snow amounts. Don’t forget that behind this system, we’ll see very cold air (lows around -10°!). Schools may get canceled and events may be postponed. Our colleagues in news will keep you updated on that aspect. We will continue to sift through all the computer models and atmospheric data and let you know what to expect.
Have a good Sunday,
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