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Heat Builds, Rain Heads North

Good Wednesday bloggers,

In order for there to be a heat wave you need three straight days of 95° or higher.  It looks like we are about to have our first heat wave this season as our forecast highs are in the 95° to 97° range Thursday through Saturday.  The hotter air may last into Sunday and Monday as the next front looks weak.  A stronger cold front is likely next week.

We are having this heat as an anticyclone, the heat wave creating machine, is forming over the southern USA and expanding north into the Midwest, centered near the Mississippi river.  This ridge will direct the rain making fronts and disturbances north from the Rockies to northern Plains then east to the Great Lakes then southeast into Indiana and Ohio.  So, our area is looking dry and hot into early next week with the big thunderstorms to the north.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 5 days.  You need 1.50″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep the yard green, so sprinklers will be needed.

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Also, the tropics are about to get more active.  There are currently two tropical disturbances drifting west through the Atlantic.  The disturbance marked with an orange “x” has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system in 5 days.  This may have impacts in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week.

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Have a great day!

Jeff

Nice Morning of Thunderstorms

Good Morning Bloggers!

Here is a cool picture that was taken by our storm chasers Leslie and Dean Burton:

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Pretty awesome!  The thunderstorms are pretty much wrapped up at this point and we will stay dry for most of the day.  The reason I saw most is because we could see some development later on tonight.  Timing around 11 pm and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.  Then they would move NE out of the area.  The spots we will focus on for this development later on are from Columbia to Richmond up to Maryville line.  The picture below is our powercast stopped at 11:30 pm.

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Otherwise the ridge of high pressure will continue to build east and the heat is on for the rest of the week. We could be dealing with our hottest stretch of the summer.

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The hottest temperature so far this summer is 96° on July 25, 2014 and our forecasted high temperature for Friday is 97°…Will we get that warm? We will keep an eye on it, but right now it is looking good.

What rainfall totals do you all have from this morning?

Kalee Dionne

Thunderstorms tonight?

Good late afternoon bloggers,

The weather is finally going to heat up this week, and as the warmer air begins to surge in tomorrow there is one chance of thunderstorms.  As you can see the dew point was 70° around 4 PM this afternoon:

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There is a weak cold front approaching. It really is about as weak as it can possibly be and still be called a cold front. Realistically it is more of a wind shift line, and even that is a stretch. It is now located over Iowa and extends southwest into northern Kansas. This should be near Kansas City around 4 AM and this is when our chance of thunderstorms will arrive. We will discuss this on 41 Action News tonight.

Later this week there will be some significant changes.  And, this will lead to the big warm-up, but also a strong cold front that has been in next week’s forecast 12 weeks now using the LRC.  This will be one of the stronger cold fronts of the summer and it will come with two or three chances of thunderstorms between the weekend and early next week.  There is even a chance that we could have a low in the upper 40s by early to mid-next week:

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We will be going in-depth into the developing LRC this fall on the Weather2020 site.  The pattern is still right on schedule at around 57 days.  Take a look at this video that I put together over the weekend. Click here:  The cycling pattern.

Have a great Monday night. I think there will be some thunderstorm development, but most likely later this evening or early in the morning.

Gary

Steady as she goes

If you were up early this morning, you probably experienced a little of that fog. Clouds hung around a tad longer than I expected, but we did manage to clear out afternoon around 1p or so. This, of course, has lead to a slightly humid and warm afternoon. But just you wait, today is the coolest day of the next 7!

Nice looking satellite image taken about an hour or so ago.
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You can see a line of storms along the Arkansas & Missouri line. You can also see a few storm clouds in Northern Nebraska, as well as along the Kansas & Colorado line. At this time, I do not expect the rain to hold together (that’s in Western Kansas) and make it to the KC area. Model guidance suggests it gets to about Topeka and then –gasp, shock: surprisingly– falls apart.
The HRRR depicts the radar as looking like this at 10p:
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But by 3am, this is how the radar would look (if the HRRR is 100% correct):
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So at this time, I am not optimistic about rain impacting us tonight. We do have chances for overnight Monday into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, those odds do not look terribly impressive to me either, but some WILL see rain. Just a matter of if it will be your backyard, or someone else’s backyard.

Looking over the temperature data for the week ahead, I have been conservative in my forecast. Guidance is suggest highs in the middle to upper 90s from Wednesday through Saturday. Since we have had trouble warming up this year, and we still have a wet ground in place, I hesitate to push temperatures warmer. That said, with this setup I’m expecting (the big high pressure building over us, winds turning a bit more to the Southwest), it would be the best chance we’ve seen all summer to truly heat up. Prep the swimming pools and load up on the ice cream…before it melts.

Right now, there are signals that the heat will break by Sunday/Monday of next week. So like we’ve seen all Summer long, the hot stretch won’t last too long. However, this may be the hottest few days in a row we’ve seen since last year. The team will continue to track all of this and keep you updated!

Enjoy the week ahead & be sure to follow along with me on Twitter and Facebook.
-JD

A warming trend starts Sunday

The rain moved through last night and some lucky areas got a really good dose of water. Others, however, will probably say they got nothing or it wasn’t enough.
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The above numbers are as of 5p Saturday. As I always say, your mileage may vary, these are just the reports from the official NWS sites and do not reflect amounts for an entire city.

So far, this has been an unusual summer. It’s been cooler and it’s been wetter than years gone by.
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I don’t think we’ll see rain on Sunday, but chances return for Monday night into Tuesday and then again on Wednesday. Once we get into the second half of the week, it could really turn warm. Indications from the model guidance today suggests low to middle 90s are a safe bet.
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Why is the heat finally showing up all of the sudden? Our pattern will shift a bit and allow an area of high pressure to build over the Southern and Central U.S. by the middle of the week. This is the “typical” setup that allow us to cook during the summer months. Some weather folk will call this the “Summer Heat Ridge”.
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It forces the storm track farther North and allows us to see highs climb into the 90s. We’ve been lucky so far this summer, but our luck may be running out. Might be a good idea to have the A/C serviced or checked. We’ve not had a full week of 90-degree-or-higher temps this year.

The Missouri State Fair will wrap up Sunday. What can you expect tonight and into Sunday? Here’s a peek:
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As you watch our newscasts over the next few days, you may notice some small changes. Don’t worry; we are working on something very cool for you. Hang with us and see what we have in store.

Hope you all have a nice weekend,
-JD

Much Needed Rain

Good Morning bloggers!

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What a beautiful Saturday sunrise after some much-needed rain overnight.

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The widespread rain has moved east and most of us our dry now, but how much rain did we see last night?

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Some spots like Emporia, KS only got three hundredths of an inch compared to Chillicothe, MO got 2.53″ of rain.  How much rain did you guys get?

The forecast moving forward is mainly dry, but a cold front that will sink south throughout the morning and afternoon hours may have a few storms that fire up along and ahead of it throughout the afternoon.

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The front will be south of us by this evening and our winds will be out of the northwest for tonight and tomorrow.  Also, I took rain chances out for Sunday, but there could be an isolated shower, but overall we should be dry.  Also, a nice warm up next week with temperatures up in the lower 90s.

Kalee Dionne

Cool & Quiet Continues

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Let’s start with a beautiful picture of the sunrise I captured from our live camera this morning.  I love mornings like these with plenty of sun!  We are still under the influence of high pressure, so calm and clear will continue through the day.  High pressure will slide off to the east today and that will turn our winds to out of the southeast and you can see that setup on the NAM 06z THU, which is midnight tonight.

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We will see a few morning clouds tomorrow afternoon, but still staying dry and quiet.  The chance for rain moves back in for the weekend, but there are still some questions on Friday night.  Right now not looking impressive, but overnight and into Saturday morning looks like the best chance.

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Above is the GFS 12z Saturday and the NAM 12Z Saturday and they both have a small amount of rain for Saturday morning for along and north of I-70.   The most rain will stay in Iowa, but looks like it could be a wet morning.  We will keep an eye on the upcoming model runs, but not looking like a lot of rain for us.

Here is an update on where we sit for average rainfall for the year and it is still looking good because of the rain earlier this month.

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Kalee

Beautiful Summer Weather

Good Tuesday bloggers,

The weather, as you may know, is incredibly nice for August.  It will continue through Thursday.  The lows will drop to the 50s once again on Wednesday.  Since June 1st we have had more lows in the 50s, than highs in the 90s.  Last summer, which was not a hot summer, there were 8 more days with highs in the 90s than lows in the 50s.

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Wednesday morning will be #16 for the 50s.  We do not see any 90s at this time, perhaps in 10 days we will have a brief stretch with highs 90°+.

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Our next chance of rain arrives Friday into Saturday as a disturbance tracks east out of the Rockies from the summer monsoon.  You can see this disturbance right now as it is crossing into Arizona/southern California from Mexico.

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This disturbance will head north into Utah, then move east into Nebraska by Thursday.  Then, Friday into Saturday it will drift east into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

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We will have more on our next rain chance in the coming days.

Have a great day and enjoy this wonderful weather!

Jeff

Back To School Weather

Good morning bloggers,

Incredible summer weather has returned this week.  Most of our area has received 3 to 6 inches of rain during the past eight days and this has left our region with adequate moisture as the summer without a heat wave continues.  The Missouri state fair is going on this week and it is usually rather hot out at the state fairgrounds in Sedalia, but not this year:

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The potential for rain increases again later in the week, but for now this excellent summer weather is perfect for some of the kids heading back to school.  The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and one of the key points we made in our summer forecast was that there would be no major heat waves, and we have only had a few days in the 90s all summer.  My presentation of the LRC at the conference in Lake Tahoe was posted and here is a link if you want to hear it.  This presentation concentrated on the Super Bowl weather prediction showcasing how we made that prediction.  Here is the link:  Accurate Long Range Weather Forecasting

I am back from vacation today and will be on beginning at 4 PM this afternoon.  We will look at this weather pattern and look ahead to our next chance of rain.  For now, it is a gorgeous day and let’s enjoy this mid August cooler air mass that is now settling in.  Have a great start to the week.

Showers to exit tonight, cooler air arrives Monday

We saw the redevelopment of shower activity across the Metro area today, as mentioned in my earlier blog post (and as forecast on air yesterday). What really impressed me about this was that is seemingly was all around the Metro EXCEPT the ballpark! Just look at the radar:
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Northwest side: rain. West side: rain. Southwest side: rain. South side: rain. Northeast side….nothing! Makes me wonder if there is someone else, in a “bigger” role, that’s a Royals fan too!

This rain should start to taper off as we go through the next few hours. Still likely that some areas will see a quick dose of rain, but trends are for this to fall apart a bit. Rainfall amounts, via the official reporting stations, from last night look like this:
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These numbers do NOT include the rain that has fallen this afternoon. Those values will be added in later with the evening reports from the NWS and I will have those numbers on the 10p newscast.

As we turn our attention to Monday, wow do we have some nice weather ahead. I understand that is a relative term for some, because there are those out there that consider a soaking wet day as a “nice” day! But for those with outdoor plans, like a baseball game or the state fair, this is going to be great.
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And don’t forget you have a chance to see the “Supermoon” tonight. The moon rises just after 8p. The best window to see it will be from about 8p to 10p; look to the Eastern sky. And if you look closely enough, maybe you’ll see this:
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I’ll be off the next few days, but back on my usual midday shift Thursday. Have a great few days.
-JD