Quantcast

Winter is Not Over Yet!

Good Wednesday,

The week started with tornadoes and all forms of severe weather and it will end with a blast of cold and chance of snow.  This is called March Weather Madness!  So, lets go through the next few days.

TODAY: The ground is still dry as we have another day of sun, wind, low humidity and temperatures around 70°.  So, we remain in a high fire danger.  This week more people have died from wildfires than tornadoes, ponder that for a few minutes. It is a miracle there were no deaths Monday night as we had a nighttime, fast moving severe weather event with 80-90 mph winds and tornadoes.

7

THURSDAY: This will be another mostly nice day as highs reach to around 70°.  There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening that could produce large hail.  It looks like they will affect locations 50-100 miles south of I-70 or even further south, near I-44.  A strong cold front is approaching from the north.

8

FRIDAY: This will be a dry day as colder air comes pouring in from the north.  Our highs will be in the 40s as the sun will still be mostly out.  Arctic air is lurking in the northern Plains.

9-1

SATURDAY: Ok, here we go.  A storm system will be tracking quickly from northwest to southeast as the cold air is in place.  Our computer data is beginning to come together on solutions where we will see snow in the region.  The amounts are a question.  There will also be a rain-sleet-snow line and where that sets up will be critical in determining who sees the most snow.  The storm strength is also a factor.

The map below is for the morning Saturday.  You can see we could have snow in St. Joseph, sleet in KC and rain in Olathe.   This is far from set in stone.

9-2

 

SATURDAY MIDDAY-AFTERNOON:  On this solution you can see that the rain-sleet-snow lines shift south.  This is going to be an interesting day.  You may wonder if the snow will stick to the roads.  If the snow comes down hard enough and it occurs early in the morning, it most certainly will as air temperatures in the snow and sleet areas will be mainly in the 20s.  If the temperatures drop to the low 20s, it could stick to roads anytime of the day despite the March sun angle and previous warmer days.  How much snow could fall?  This storm has potential to bring more than 2-3″ in some small bands.  If the sky clears Saturday night, then lows Sunday morning in locations that saw snow could drop to 5°-15°!

9

 

Have a great rest of your week and bring the boots, coats and gloves back out.

Jeff

Wow! What a Night

Good Tuesday,

I hope everyone stayed safe last night as the line of high winds, hail   and tornadoes roared through.  I lived here my whole life and cannot remember a severe weather event that did this much major structural damage across the entire metropolitan KC area.  It is nothing short of a miracle that there were no serious injuries or deaths.

MARCH 6TH TOTAL SEVERE REPORTS

Now, what is next?  Today we have a high fire danger as despite the rain last night it was only .10″ to .50″, so the ground is quite dry and we are for more wind and low humidity.  Wednesday and Thursday will be nice days, but winter is trying to return after a long absence.  Yes, there is a chance of snow Saturday and we will be tracking this through the week.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this weather March Madness.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Severe Weather Is Possible Later, But It May Go By Dry Again

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

  • Wind Advisory Today: Winds will gust to nearly 50 mph this afternoon
  • There is a risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. The window for thunderstorms will open and close fast and many areas near KC may be left high and dry again.

day1otlk_1300
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms developing near Kansas City today. The better chance is just outside the 41 Action News KC viewing area over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. This may very well go past Kansas City leaving it high and extremely dry again.

5

This surface forecast shows the strong surface low up near the USA/Canada border with a cold front trailing into northwest Kansas and a dry line over eastern Kansas. These surface boundaries will likely be the focusing mechanisms for thunderstorm development. There is a pretty good chance that a more solid line of thunderstorms won’t form until around 8 to 10 PM tonight as you can see on this sequence of forecasts from the HRRR model:

1

2

3

This third map shows what finally happens by 9 or 10 PM tonight. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop and then rapidly take off to the east. As you can see below, this model left Kansas City dry again.

4

We will monitor this closely. Have a great day!

Gary

Spring Forecast

Good evening or early Thursday morning bloggers,

The weather is again calming down for a few days.  Kansas City missed the rain and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night. It did hit areas south and southeast of the city, however, but overall it has been getting drier and drier. The pattern is cycling as described by my theory the LRC.  So, the same pattern that just brought us our dry and warm winter will likely bring us a drier than average spring and a warmer than average one as well. By the summer we are forecasting many 100 degree days whereas it has not been officially 100 at KCI Airport in nearly 4 years.

Looking back at our winter forecast and the pattern we have been experiencing:

2

Our winter forecast was almost spot on, but we should have forecast even less snowfall. Overall I would give this winter forecast a solid A.

1

 

This map above is the graphic we made to show the dominant storm track for the winter.  It has pretty much been spot on.  This second map below shows the temperature forecast for the winter:

3

 

We are forecasting this pattern to continue producing the above average temperatures and the drier than average rainfall this spring.  When it comes to severe weather we believe there will be some big severe weather set ups, but there is also a chance the severe thunderstorms taper off early as summer approaches.  The part of the pattern that just cycled through will be back in around 60 days:

4

 

So, what is going to happen this spring?

6

I sure hope I am wrong. I would put our chance of being right at 85% with the chance of something unusual happening and we end up wetter than we are forecasting to be at 15%.

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Severe weather erupts over southeast Kansas City

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

What is today’s date? We are going into March like a lion, but it will be tamed and be more like a lamb very soon.  Here is the line of thunderstorms that formed over the south and southeast part of the KC metro area. Some spots had hail and others heavy rain, while most areas stayed dry once again:

1

These thunderstorms were forming on a cold front that has now moved through and the thunderstorms are moving away. Here is that front as of 8:20 PM:

2

It has been very dry and as we move through spring we will definitely see some rain here and there, but overall the dry weather pattern is likely going to continue. We debuted our new 41 Action News Storm Tracker tonight:

st

This is a storm tracking machine with the best equipment to be a severe weather mobile unit that will be able to provide us with great data from the field. We debuted it tonight with our 360 degree camera. It was incredible. Hopefully we won’t have any tornadoes in our area but if the weather threatens we will be all over it with our chase teams and this great new tool.

Have a great middle of the week.

Gary

Tuesday Severe Weather?

Good Monday,

We are really drying out as we are about 2″ below average rainfall since January 17th.  Well, we have a small disturbance moving through tonight, a strong cold front and fast-moving system moving by Tuesday-Wednesday.  A few showers will be possible tonight, but amounts will be under .05″ at most as temperatures hold in the 50s.  Then, we soar to the 70s Tuesday ahead of this front. It looks like the better dew points will get shunted to the east by evening, so some showers and thunderstorms are possible along and behind this front, but the best chance will be well east.  This is the same for the Tuesday evening severe weather threat.  Then, we may see some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but the main precipitation will stay well north.  So, our rainfall amounts will be paltry.

1

Click on the video below for an in depth look at this wild, but dry weather.

Have a great week.

Jeff

 

Snow and 50°

Good Sunday,

Well, only in our area can we have snow in the morning and 50° during the afternoon.  That is our forecast for today.  There was 30 minute period of heavy snow in Lawrence, but all surfaces were mainly wet as temperatures are above freezing.  The snow will be around into the morning, possibly changing to or mixing with rain before it ends.  If there are any slick spots they will be temporary as temperatures stay above freezing.  There are other small systems to track Monday-Wednesday.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this crazy weather.

LAWRENCE HEAVY SNOW: 7-8 AM.

1

 

Have a great week,

Jeff

Tracking Small Weather Systems

Good Saturday,

Today will be a a sunny day with highs around 40°.  We had lows in the upper teens to low 20s which is good as it slowed down the tree budding process.  This should be a temporary help to allergies.  There may be a few flowers that got nipped, but most buds were not out enough to cause damage.

We need moisture as it has really dried out since the rain/ice storm in the middle of January.  We are tracking a series of small systems the next 5-7 days, but total rainfall looks to be rather low.  The first system is for Sunday and may bring a brief snow or rain shower.  The only chance of seeing a slick spot Sunday is if the precipitation moves in before 8-9 AM.

1

 

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the weather pattern

Jeff

Record Breaking Day

Good Wednesday,

We will be likely shattering the record high for today as we are expecting highs close to 80°.  If we do reach 80°, officially in KC, then this will be the earliest recorded 80° high in KC history!

4

This crazy long stretch of warm weather has started the budding process on the trees and the flowers are starting to poke through the ground as well.  It is much too early.  So, if you are sneezing and coughing you may be allergic to Elm and Juniper pollen as the count is through the roof.  We need some rain to wash the pollen out of the air, or better yet, below freezing air to slow the budding process down.

5

Colder air is on the way, but meaningful rain is a bigger question.  The weather changes begin Thursday.

THURSDAY TEMPERATURES:  KC will be near a warm front, so highs will be in the 60s, with 70s south.  50s for highs are possible in northern Missouri.  Much colder air is lurking in Nebraska.  This colder air will rush in Friday.

1

THURSDAY PRECIPITATION: We may see a few brief showers/thunderstorms midday Thursday, but most of the precipitation will occur along and north of I-80.  A snowstorm will occur from northern Nebraska to Wisconsin and northern lower and all of upper Michigan.  If we had more moisture, then we could have a chance of severe thunderstorms.

2

 

FRIDAY: This is the day when reality strikes as it will be cloudy and windy with temperatures in the 40s.  The warm air is moving away.

3

 

There will be 2-3 more storm systems to watch Sunday into next week.  Each one will have the chance to bring some rain or even snow.  Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride.  So, the forecast for these days will have to be taken one day at a time as the data looks different every 6 hours.

Have a great day and night.

Jeff

End of the Week Changes

Good Tuesday.

We are in for a very nice day of weather, near perfect, with highs around 70° a light wind and total sunshine.  Wednesday will be warmer ahead of a significant change back to where we should be for this time of year.  Let’s go through this day by day.

TODAY: Hour by Hour Forecast  The record high is 75° set in 1935.

7

TODAY: Surface map.  A weak trough will be to our west, with a storm system to our southeast.  This puts us in an area of light winds.

1

 

WEDNESDAY: The trough moves east and we see more of a southwest wind.  This will allow us to warm up to close to 80°.  The record is 73° set in 1982, we should smash that.  The cold front to the north will head south and stall near I-70 by Thursday as a storm system forms.

2

 

THURSDAY (Temperatures): Look at this temperature difference forming across the Plains.  The storm is forming, but we will still be in or very close to the warm air.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.  The 20s, and much colder air is lurking to the north.

3

 

THURSDAY (Precipitation): The main storm will be tracking to our north, so we may see a few showers/thunderstorms midday. Otherwise, we will be dry with a snowstorm along I-80.

4

 

THURSDAY NIGHT: The cold front will be sweeping through and there may be some light sleet or rain/snow mix in the northwest corner of Missouri.  Any rain will be well east and northeast of our area.

5

 

FRIDAY: Reality check!  The cold air will be sweeping in.  We will be cloudy and windy with perhaps a flurry, but the main feature will be the change to colder air.  A hard freeze is likely Friday night which is a good thing so we can stop the tree budding process.

6

 

There are 3-4 more systems to watch February 26-March 10.  One or two of them may bring us some snow, so winter is not quite over yet.  At this time, we do not see any big storm systems.

Have a great day.

Jeff