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Wednesday Severe Weather Potential

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We have our eyes focused on the chance of severe weather Wednesday.  There are factors for and against this being a significant severe weather event in our area.  So, lets go through this.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM: It looks like we will have a low overcast in place with a few showers possible and temperatures in the 50s.  This low overcast is one of the factors we will be watching closely.  The thicker and longer the low clouds hang in there, the less sun we will see and the less instability there will be.

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WEDNESDAY 630 PM: This data is from the 18 z NAM.  As you can see the clouds cleared. they cleared about 2-4 PM.  This would be enough time for the sun to work on the surface and warm us up to the 70s.  Now, the other issue is where will the thunderstorms initiate during the peak heating of the day.  It is looking like the initiation zone will be west of Topeka to Salina as this is where the dry line and triple point are located.  Remember, the triple point is where the cold front, warm front and dry line meet at the surface low.  It is this location that has the highest likelihood of more widespread severe weather as the instability will be highest just east of the dry line where the sky cleared earlier and allowed for more sun to heat the surface.  The 18Z NAM is showing the thunderstorms getting going at this time.

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WEDNESDAY 930 PM: The thunderstorms have really intensified and are headed to the state line.  So, the question will be as they move east, will they maintain their strength?  The sun sets at 730 PM, so the heat of the day will be waning.  However, the wind energy and shear aloft will be impressive.

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WEDNESDAY 11 30 PM: The thunderstorms are moving east and losing their punch quickly.  So, you can see this is a forecast that will need to be monitored closely all the way to the last minute and beyond.

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WEDNESDAY 7 AM: The cold front is moving away and we are windy and cooler.  A few showers will be possible Thursday morning and then again Thursday night as a new system comes in from the northwest.

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WEDNESDAY SLIGHT RISK: There has been little change to the slight risk.  Remember, the slight risk area means there is a 15% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.

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So, as you can see this is a tough forecast.  How long will the low clouds stick around? How far west is the thunderstorm initiation point?  Once they form and move east how long will they hold their intensity?

Have a great night.

Jeff

One Day of Thunderstorms

Good Monday bloggers,

We have a calm weather day after an active Easter Sunday.  Today will be sunny with highs in the 60s.  We have our attention on the storm for Wednesday.  We are not on the cold side of this storm, but rather firmly entrenched on the warm and humid side.  So, this puts us in the risk for severe weather.

TUESDAY: There will be more clouds as a lead disturbance heads out into the Plains.  There may even be a few showers.  Highs will be in the 60s to near 70° depending on cloud cover.

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WEDNESDAY: This is the day we have our eye on for this week.  A storm system will track out of the Rockies and into the Plains.  The data below is from the 12z NAM.  It has the slowest solution for placement of the key surface features.  The triple point, where the cold front, warm front and dry line meet during the evening is located north of Concordia, KS, 8-10 PM.  This is important as it is the triple point and locations to the east where we look for the best chance of severe weather during the afternoon and evening.  If the triple point is that far west and the dry line is in central Kansas, then the thunderstorm initiation point will be west of our viewing area.  The thunderstorms would be much stronger out there, then roll east and lose some of their punch as they move into our area after sunset.  This is due to the fact that the heat of the day will be cooling and the thunderstorm fuel will be less as they arrive to the state line.  However, if the surface features are further east, then the thunderstorm development area is further east and in our viewing area.  This would mean a better chance of severe weather for our area.  So, what is right?  We lean slightly with the slower solution as that’s what happened last Wednesday.  Remember last week, it was suppose to form in central Missouri, then western Missouri and ended up getting its start in eastern Kansas.  Also, we will have to see how many clouds we have Wednesday, this could limit the warming.  So, there are many questions and we will know more as we get closer, as always.

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WEDNESDAY SLIGHT RISK:

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WEDNESDAY SLIGHT RISK: This means a 15% chance of seeing any severe weather within 25 miles of your location

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Have a great day and week ahead.

Jeff

Snowy Easter Morning

Blog update at 9 AM:

We are still seeing reports of snow in several locations around the metro and this will be ongoing for the next hour.  The conditions will begin to improve from west to east after 10 a.m. and we will see some sun and mild temperatures later on today.  Jeff Penner will have an update later on this evening.  Here is our highest snowfall accumulation report so far:

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Good Morning Bloggers!

I’m slammed right now, but wanted to put up a blog.  Everything is spot on with the forecast we put together for last night.  Rain/snow mix with big, wet snowflakes falling throughout the western part of the KC Metro and Eastern Kansas.

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Send me your reports and pictures to help throughout the rest of this event that should wrap up by 10 to 11 am for most locations.

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Here is a quick look at what is in the rain gauge since midnight:

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Only light accumulations are expected from the snow for most of the area, but there are some spots they may see .5″ to 1.5″ with higher amounts where the heavier bands set up.  Temperatures as of 7 AM still right around freezing for many locations other than southeast of the metro, which is well above freezing.

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I’m going to go back to getting ready for our next show at 8 AM, so stay tuned for the live updates on 41 Action News.  Remember to send me your reports because you can pretty much find me on any social platform:

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Two Easter Weekend Storm Systems

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking two storm systems for this weekend.  The first one moves through today and the second one will affect Easter.

The system for Sunday is located near Salt Lake City.  This could lead to an interesting Sunday morning.  The one for today is moving through Kansas with an area of rain.

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8 AM SATURDAY WEATHER TRACK RADAR: We will see rain in most locations this morning with amounts .05″ to .25″.  It is not much, but we will take every drop.

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SATURDAY NOON: This first system will be moving north into Nebraska and the rain will be ending, so we will see just 2-3 hours of rain today with some sun this afternoon.  Highs will reach the 50s this afternoon.

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SATURDAY 830 PM: It will be a dry and cool evening with temperatures falling from the 50s to 40s.

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EASTER SUNDAY SUNRISE: There is a small, fast-moving storm system that will race across the area.  A period of heavy rain with some snow mixed in is likely with this storm system.  There may even be small pockets where we see all snow, briefly heavy.  These pockets could see some minor accumulation.  Now, this being said, the track is still a question.  This set of data has the storm mostly from KC south with rain and some snow pockets.  There is a 50-50 shot of this affecting KC as it could track 50-100 miles further south, leaving us dry.  Or, it could come further north, putting us in the middle of the heavy rain/snow, not an easy forecast.  It would be nice to see the storm as it will drop .25″ to 1″ of liquid.

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EASTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Regardless of weather it rains or snows in the morning, it will likely be sunny with highs 45°-50° by afternoon.  It is a small, fast-moving system.

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EASTER FORECAST: The morning there is a 50% chance for rain/snow.  It depends on the track of the storm system.

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EASTER FORECAST: The afternoon will see a return of the sun with highs in the 40s to near 50°.

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Have a Happy Easter.

Jeff

Chances for Severe Weather and Snow

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The next 24-26 hours of weather are going to be a bit crazy across our part of the country.  Unfortunately for us, we are in the mostly dry and windy part of the storm, again.  Lets go through the current advisories and outlooks first.

Eastern Kansas and far western Missouri remain under a Red Flag (Fire Weather) warning until 8 PM, while Winter Storm Watches and warnings are in effect along and north of I-80.  Some locations will see 8-15″ of snow.  This has already occurred in Colorado. Rain will put an end to the fire danger and there is some in the forecast for this evening, but will it really be that beneficial?

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR TODAY: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk to slight.  This is not a shock to us as nothing really has changed in the data the last few days.  The timing for our region is 4 PM to 8 PM.

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630 PM WEDNESDAY: This is what the RPM and many other models are predicting for our region.  A band of scattered showers and some thunderstorms will start forming along the state line before they race off to the east.  Some may be severe, especially across northwest Missouri.  This is a potent surface set up with the triple point (where cold front, warm front and dry line meet) located in northeast Kansas during prime severe weather time.  The main limiting factor to big severe weather is low level moisture.  Dew points are around 55° with temperatures in the 70s.  If it were to reach the 80s with dew points 65°-70° we would be in deep trouble, this is not going to happen.  So that being said, we will watch this closely  to see how robust the thunderstorms become before the exit to the east.

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THURSDAY MORNING: The wrap around of the storm will be moving across the region with scattered rain and snow showers.  Yes, about 12-15 hours after our severe threat we could see snowflakes.  This does not look like much and there will likely not be icy roads as temperatures will be above 32.  This only happens in the unlikely event that the snow comes down hard enough.

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So, we have a chance of severe weather and snow, but total precipitation will be paltry with amounts of a trace to .25″.  If the thunderstorms really get going, a quick .50″ in a few locations is possible.  We really are not in the right spot.  There is a storm this weekend that has a 50-50 shot to bring us decent moisture.

Have a great night and keep an eye to the sky.

Jeff

Fire, Ice and Severe Weather

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are tracking a rather strong storm system that will cross the Plains Wednesday and Thursday.  This storm has a winter and spring component.  It is also a major wind machine, creating the conditions for high fire danger across much of the Plains.  Lets go through this next two days of crazy weather.

Here are the fire and ice parts of the storm.  There is a Red Flag (Fire Weather) warning across much of Kansas and Missouri as strong winds and dry ground will enhance the fire danger.  This has been extended into Wednesday.  Then, we look north to I-80.  This is where we find the winter part of the storm with Winter Storm watches and warnings.  The fire and winter watches and warning are right next to each other in northwest Kansas, not a usual sight.

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WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS: As of Tuesday evening our viewing area is in a marginal risk, which means a 5% chance of seeing any form of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.  The slight risk is south of I-44.  A slight risk means a 15% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of you location.  We will show the surface set up for tomorrow and it is rather menacing for our area.  However, low level moisture will be lacking.  Now that being said, it would not surprise me if we were upgraded to a slight risk Wednesday morning.  The other issue is that the thunderstorm producing mechanisms will be moving east quickly, so the threat for tomorrow lasts between 3 PM and 8 PM.

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WEDNESDAY 4 PM: A surface low will be located in northeast Kansas.  This is what we call the “triple point” where the cold front, warm front and dry line intersect.  This is the location where the best chance of severe weather is usually located.  So, this is a dangerous location of the triple point for our viewing area at 4 PM.  There is one limiting factor and that is low level moisture and instability.  Dew points will be 50°-55° with temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s.  We will have to watch this closely as you can see the data below, showers and thunderstorms forming rapidly around 4 PM.  Here are some of the questions we will be asking.  Will the thunderstorms form? How fast will they become severe as they race off to the east?

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RAINFALL FORECAST: When you add the chance of a thunderstorm later Wednesday with the chance for a period of rain and snow showers early Thursday the potential is there for a trace to .10″ of rain.  If the thunderstorms get going more, we could see .25″.  Basically, we are in the wrong spot of the storm again if you want decent moisture.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: We know we have been consistently in the wrong spot for any chance of snow all winter.  This storm is no exception.  There will be some locations that see 10″ to 15″ of snow from Nebraska to Wisconsin.  We may see a few rain and snow showers early Thursday as the storm pulls away.

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There is a system for Easter weekend that has a chance to bring us .10″ to 1″ of rain, but I will believe it when I see it.

Have a great night.

Jeff

More Wind, No Rain, Fire Danger

Good Monday bloggers,

We continue with fire danger threats every time the wind blows and the humidity is low.  The simple reason is that we cannot get a soaking rain.  We have seen some moisture, but just not enough.  So, here are the Fire watches and warnings.  They are quite extensive across the Plains as it has been very dry in these locations.  They will expire Monday night and likely return Tuesday.  This is Hard Red Winter Wheat country and rain is needed yesterday.  Hopefully, there will be rain in the Plains the next 2 weeks.  The next storm is going to be a miss, unfortunately.

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KCI RAINFALL: We are now approaching a 2″ rain deficit for the year.  This deficit will grow by about .10″ per day.  Our next decent chance of meaningful rainfall is Saturday.

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TUESDAY: This will be another windy and dry day with highs in the 70s.  Southwest Kansas will see temperatures close to 90°.  These locations were 10°-15° Sunday morning.  That is crazy.  The surface features will be forming as a surface low gets going in southwest Nebraska.  A dry line will be forming in central Kansas.  However, it will be inactive as the moisture is quite limited.

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WEDNESDAY: This is the day when a strong storm system will come out into the Plains.  A blizzard will be possible from northwest Kansas to central Nebraska.  We will be dry and windy with temperatures soaring to near 80° as the dry slot moves by.  We will be watching closely for severe thunderstorms forming in our eastern viewing area 3-5 PM before the whole thing shifts quickly east.  Dew points will be limited to the low and mid 50s, so the thunderstorms may not really get going until they reach eastern Missouri.  If this is slower, then the severe threat will shift west.  Look at western Kansas as they will be back to the 30s after a day near 90°!  The colder air will sweep in Wednesday night.  We may see a few rain showers as this happens, but we do not expect anything significant.

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Have a great Monday night and Tuesday and hold on to your hats.

Jeff

Spring is a Day Away

Good Saturday bloggers,

This was not much of a winter as we saw 5″ of snow.  Well, now that Spring begins Sunday at 4 PM, Winter is saying hold on one minute.  We saw snow Friday and we will likely see snow and rain showers later today.  There is not going to be any accumulation as temperatures will be in the 40s.  Yes, you can see snowflakes at 40°.  It is below freezing so close to the surface, that the snowflakes do not have a chance to melt before they reach the ground.

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SATURDAY MORNING: There is a freeze ongoing across much of the Plains.  The 18° in Dodge City is concerning as this may be doing damage to the Winter Wheat crop.

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SATURDAY PM: A storm system in Iowa will drop south, bringing some very cold air aloft.  This will help to generate scattered showers all over the place.  Some of the showers will have all raindrops, some will have raindrops and snowflakes and others will have all snowflakes.  The wind will be from the northwest at 10-25 mph.

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SATURDAY EVENING: The showers will decrease and change to mostly snow as temperatures fall into the 30s.

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SUNDAY MORNING: Lows will fall to 25-32.  The warmer locations will see clouds, while other areas that are clear will fall deep into the 20s.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Spring begins at 4 PM and a warming trend begins.  Highs will rise to near 50° with plenty of sunshine.

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MONDAY: The warming trend gets serious as south winds increase to 15-35 mph.  Highs will reach the low 60s, with 70s in western Kansas.

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TUESDAY:  Remember earlier in this blog where I showed it is 18° in Dodge City?  Well, on Tuesday highs out there will come close to 90°.  This is not great news for the winter wheat crop with temperatures this wild and no precipitation.  We will see highs jump into the 70s with winds gusting over 40 mph.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

A Few Evening Showers & T-Storms

Good evening bloggers,

A look over the Legends this evening out in Kansas City, KS. A heavy downpour, and possibly a weak thunderstorm was moving by and heading into the northern part of the KC metro area at 3:30 PM:

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These will move through and then cooler air will be moving in. Expect under 1/10th of an inch of rain.

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A few of the thunderstorms had some small hail.  This is going to be quickly moving east as we are near the beginning of the development of a much larger storm system:

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This big storm is developing over the Great Lakes states and Kansas City once again will miss most of the winter part of this storm. There is a chance of a hard freeze by the weekend as that cold front swinging northwest from the surface low tracks south. This will happen Friday into Saturday, so St. Patrick’s Day is looking dry, and just a bit on the cool side.

We have to watch the next disturbance closely. It will be tracking out of the Rocky Mountains and into western Kansas by Thursday night. It likely will produce some snow over western Kansas, but for KC……well we know what has happened all winter. If anything changes, of course we will let you know.

Have a great evening!

Gary

Turning Colder This Week

Good Sunday bloggers,

Well, we had .10-.50″ of rain Saturday and today the rain showers and a few thunderstorms were mostly south and west of KC.  Showers and thunderstorms occurred just of KC from Lawrence to Ottawa to southwest Johnson county.  1.25″ of rain fell in Lawrence.  Thanks Bill for the report.  1.15″ fell in Topeka.  The rain fell apart as expected after 8-9 AM and KC remained mostly dry.

The low near Chicago was the storm system from yesterday and the one that dumped 20″+ rain in Louisiana.  The low south of Tulsa is about 1/2 state too far south to bring us much rain.  The northern extension did drift into central Kansas.  By the time that reaches eastern Kansas, it will be mostly dissipated except for the small area from Topeka to Lawrence to Ottawa.  Despite, the miss today, we saw rain Tuesday and Saturday.  This has put KC officially a bit above average.

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MARCH 2016 RAINFALL: We are only up .30″.  This will get erased this week as it looks mostly dry.  There is the slight chance of a storm system next weekend.

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MONDAY: We have one warm day this week before it turns colder.  Highs tomorrow will come close to 80°.  The sun will be out and the winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, a marvelous Monday.

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TUESDAY: A cold front will sweep through dry Monday night as the cooling trend begins.  A few showers will occur in Iowa and far northern Missouri.  This will make Tuesday windy and cooler with highs in the low 60s and wind gusts from the west at 30-40 mph.  At least the fire danger will be lower as we have seen the rain.

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WEDNESDAY: This will be another sunny day around here with highs a bit cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s.  We will have our eyes on a cold front in the northern Plains.  This will likely arrive at the end of the week dropping our highs to the 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.  It looks like next Saturday night is the best chance for a freeze with lows around 27°.  The question is, will we have a storm system on the leading edge of the colder air?  The chance is 20%.

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Have a great week and enjoy Monday.  i am filling in for JD tonight.

Jeff