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Crazy Monday and More Thunderstorms Ahead

Good Monday bloggers,

This has been an odd day of weather.  We were almost certain it was going to rain, but just how it lays out and evolves is very tough to predict more than a few hours or less in advance.  Today is a prime example  of how tough it is to forecast the weather.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall total from Monday.  Thunderstorms formed around 11 am to noon along and just west of I-35.  These thunderstorms trained from southwest to northeast.  2″-4″ rainfall totals are found from Olathe to midtown.  There were many reports of high water.

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Now, here is the amazing picture.  There are 5″-8″ rainfall estimates from Gladstone to Downtown KC.  This is crazy since most of the rain fell in a 2 hour period!  There was much flooding in Gladstone.

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This evening will be calm and drier as this disturbance moves by.  We will then turn our attention to western Kansas where there is a surface low and weak warm front extending east along I-70.  Overnight as the low-level jet kicks in, new showers and thunderstorms will likely form north of this pseudo warm front.  Also, some supercells may form this evening out in western Kansas.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The overnight thunderstorms will likely congeal into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and head our way.  If this MCS really gets going we could see some quarter sized hail and brief winds over 55 mph.  We also would see more heavy rain.  This is something will have to watch later tonight to see how it is evolving.

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TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SPC has removed most of the viewing area from the slight risk as the morning thunderstorms will stabilize the rest of the day as new thunderstorms form in western Kansas.  These thunderstorms may roll in Wednesday morning.  So, if we do not see minimal severe weather Tuesday morning, the threat for tomorrow is very low.

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We will have to take the forecast the next 6-10 days one day at a time as each day has it’s own unique thunderstorm set up.  Now, we can say that many locations the next 10 days may see a new 3″-6″ of rain with some spots receiving 6″-9″!

Stay dry and have a great week.

Jeff

A stormy stretch of days

After days of talk, were are on the eve of a week full of t-storm chances. Not expecting severe weather on Monday, but once we get into Tuesday that will change. The latest information still suggests we’re in for round after round of storms, with a series of MCS events taking shape. This means overnight storm complexes that advance our way & then fizzle out. They will leave behind various outflow boundaries, which will serve as trigger points for thunderstorms later in the day. This cycle should continue through the week.
I try to break this down more in the video blog:

The bottom line: have a way to get alert information if/when it’s issued as this could be a stormy week.
-JD

Make the most of Sunday

It’s not often the atmosphere (and mother nature) gives us a perfect weekend in late May. I think this is a sign! Get out and make the most of Sunday because once we get into next week, the sky with be rockin’ and outdoor plans will likely get shelved. We are heading into our wettest and stormiest time of the year. It should be no surprise we have chances for thunderstorms each day next week.

Get my latest thoughts in this video blog.

Oh, and don’t be surprised to hear a shower or two this evening into the overnight period.
-JD

More Thunderstorms Around the Corner

Good Saturday bloggers,

This weekend will see mostly calm weather with highs in the 70s today and around 80° Sunday.  This is the first time we have reached the 70s in a week.  The average high is 76°, so we are due for this warm up.  A sprinkle is possible this evening as clouds increase, but outdoor activities should not be affected.  Sunday looks mostly dry with perhaps a morning sprinkle and evening thunderstorm.  Most of the activity will stay west.  Below we will show the active pattern that is around the corner.

DROUGHT MONITOR APRIL 15TH: Look at the drought that was growing.  This was beginning to have an impact on the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop in the western Plains.  It was getting dry around here with high fire dangers every other day.  We were 2-3″ below average rainfall.

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DROUGHT MONITOR MAY 17-21: The drought has been wiped out by a month of widespread and beneficial rain, putting us 2-3″ above average for the year.  The pattern is going to remain active the next 10 days.

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UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK: A trough will be located in the southwest USA.  This will put a southwest flow across much of the Plains and Midwest.  There will be a series of disturbances in this southwest flow.  A very warm and humid air mass will be in place from KC south and a cooler air mass will reside to the north.  We will mostly be in the warm and muggy air.  This sets up a battle ground where thunderstorms will be possible every 1-2 days.

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ACTIVE NEXT WEEK: So, every 1-2 days there will be a chance of thunderstorms, some severe.  This forecast is going to be day by day as the timing of disturbances and placement of surface fronts will be tough to forecast more than 24 hours in advance.  The first round of thunderstorms arrives Monday.  This does not look severe, but we could see some heavy rain.  This active weather will last into Memorial day weekend.  Now, this is to be expected as May 20-June 5 are, on average, the wettest days of the year.  So, we have a wet pattern during the wettest time of year, this means thunderstorms.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS: Many locations will see 2″-4″ with some seeing 5″.  This model has the bulls eye in northern Missouri, but it can be anywhere.  Average 10 day rainfall is 1.50″ to 2″.  So, it looks like a wet 10 days.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Better Weather Tuesday

Good Monday bloggers,

The cold and wet weather today has cancelled the Royals game for tonight.  It will be made up as a day-night doubleheader on Wednesday.  The weather will be much better the next few days.

Look at this surface map from 4 PM Monday.  It was 96° in Midland, TX in the dry air behind the dry line.  The best chance of severe weather tonight will be in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles where the dry line, surface low and stationary front are located. We are in this wedge of cool air where highs are in the low 50s and the warm, moist air is over running the colder air, creating low clouds and areas of rain and drizzle.  It is 65-70 in the northern plains where the sun is out.  This whole set up will be sagging south the next 24 hours, ending our rain chances.

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TUESDAY MORNING:  There will be areas of rain and drizzle overnight.  Tuesday morning will see the rain ending from north to south.

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TUESDAY PM: Drier air will be heading south as a surface high pressure moves in.  This will push the thick clouds and rain south.  There may be a few showers in the afternoon if the sun comes out and we destabilize a bit.

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY: The severe weather risk is shifted well south into south Texas.  These are areas that do not need rain.

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The weather on Wednesday and much of Thursday looks decent with highs in the 60s.  Thursday night and Friday will see new rain chances as a system comes in from the southwest.  This does not look like a big rain event,  but we could see small areas of heavier rain.  The weekend looks great as the system moves away.  Highs will finally reach 75°-80°, which is average.

Have a great night and stay dry and warm.

Jeff

Here comes the rain … again

After an overall nice weekend–sure it was below average, but the sun was out for most of Saturday & Sunday–we get set to start the week on the soggy side. We’ve been telling you about the rain for days and now it’s on our doorstep. It’s also bringing along some cool air, which means jackets and coats are in order.
In the video below, we go over the latest version of Powercast plus take a look at how much rain may fall. The bulk of the week will be below average in terms of high temps. Seems spring is on break for a while long.

Have a great Sunday evening!
-JD

Cold May Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

Today will be a dry day with highs in the 60s as clouds increase.  Warm and moist air will be heading north from the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday.  This moisture will overrun the cold air in place, creating widespread clouds and rain.  So, tomorrow is looking cold and wet.  Let’s go through the time line.

SUNDAY 3 PM: Increasing clouds and dry with highs in the 60s.

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MONDAY MORNING: A cold rain will be in progress. The rain will be heavy at times with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.

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MONDAY EVENING: The significant rain will be moving away.  Clouds will continue with some drizzle.  Temperatures will be stuck in the low 50s.  So, the Royals should be able to get the game in.

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TUESDAY MORNING:  A new round of rain is likely later Monday and Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.  The high Tuesday will reach 60° only if we can see some sun.  That might happen by the end of the day.

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RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:  It still looks like the least rainfall will occur across northern Missouri with the heaviest along and south of I-70.  The heavy rain band can still shift north or south 50-100 miles, but the latest data has the heaviest rain along I-70 with amounts around 2.50″.

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Wednesday and Thursday are looking dry, but still with temperatures 5 top 15 degrees below average.

Have a great week ahead, stay dry and keep the sprinklers off and the heat on!

Jeff

Cold May Weather

Good Saturday bloggers,

A decent cold front moved through Friday evening and this morning we have come a few degrees away from a record low.  The record is 40° set in 1907.  This cold May air mass will be in place for several days and it will be joined by rain early next week.

The jet stream is flowing in from northern Canada and Alaska, so this is why we have this plunge of cold May air.

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MONDAY: The jet stream will be in two streams.  The cold northern branch will relax a bit as a southern branch develops.  This southern branch will have disturbances riding east from the Rockies.  These systems will pull warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, north, up and over the cool air.  This will be the set up for widespread clouds and areas of cold rain early next week.

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EARLY NEXT WEEK: Kansas and Missouri will likely see a cold rain with the severe weather to the south where the warm and moist air is located.

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SUNDAY MORNING: Before the cold rain arrives, we will have lows in the 30s and 40s Sunday.  The record is 34° set in 1907.  We will likely come short by a few degrees.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This is the latest rainfall forecast for early next week.  The heaviest rain will occur south as amounts will range from under .50″ in northern Missouri to almost 2.50″ near Pleasanton.  Now, this being said, this is not set in stone as the heavier rain may shift south or north.  It is still 2 days away.  Regardless we are in for some cold and wet May days.

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Have a great weekend,

Jeff

Wednesday Thunderstorms

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Today was a nice reprieve from the active weather.  This is a one day calm spell as we have 1-2 chances of thunderstorms Wednesday, some may be severe.

There is a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday.  This means a 15% chance of seeing any type of severe weather within 25 miles of each point.  This slight risk can be for the chance of morning and then afternoon thunderstorms.  Tomorrow is a complex weather day, so lets; go through it.

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WEDNESDAY 4-10 AM: A warm front will be lifting north and this will likely generate thunderstorms.  Some of these thunderstorms will contain torrential rain and hail a quarter size or larger.  This would be severe.  The question is, how extensive will the morning round become?  Will there just be a few thunderstorms, or will it form into a major deal? This is something we will have to monitor later tonight.  The extent of the morning activity will have a bearing on the afternoon thunderstorms.

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WEDNESDAY NOON: The morning thunderstorms will most likely be gone, leaving us partly cloudy, warm and humid.  If the morning activity is bigger, the chance of afternoon severe thunderstorms is reduced, due to less instability.  If the morning activity is smaller, then we will have to watch closely for explosive afternoon development.

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WEDNESDAY 4-9 PM: There is another factor in whether we see big afternoon thunderstorms.  The cold front may move through quickly, so that when thunderstorms get going on the front it will be well east of our area, or on the eastern edge of the viewing area.

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So in summary, we will be monitoring the extent of the morning thunderstorms.  This will help to determine how much instability is available for the afternoon threat.  Also, where will the front be located when the thunderstorms decide to form?  There are many questions to this tough forecast.

We have to take tomorrow seriously as there is a low tornado threat, for mainly afternoon activity.  It is low, but it exists.  There is a damaging wind, damaging hail and flash flooding threat for both the morning and afternoon events.  Flash flooding is likely the biggest issue as the ground is saturated and 1-2″ rainfall rates for 15-35 minutes can cause issues.

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Tomorrow is one of those days to keep an eye on the sky and know your severe weather plan.  Also, “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” 6″ of flowing water can wash away a car.   You can keep updated with the 41 Action News app, Storm Shield app and on 41 Action News on air.

Have a good night.

Jeff

 

Severe or Not Severe?

Good Monday bloggers,

We are once again in a slight risk of severe weather today.  However like yesterday, we are in total cloud cover with increasing areas of showers and thunderstorms.  This will likely keep highs down to the 60s and low 70s.  This is too cool for severe weather.  So, our severe threat is quite low.  This evening in central Kansas severe thunderstorms may form where there is more sun.  These thunderstorms will head east towards our area tonight.  They will likely weaken as they approach as we will be more stable and it will be night.

This is the satellite from Monday morning.  Needless to say we have a complex weather set up.  There are upper lows in South Dakota, Colorado and Washington.  The small low in Oklahoma is a disturbance being kicked north in the flow.  The small low is responsible for the rain today.  The Colorado low will move east and may push the weakened thunderstorms through tonight.  The Washington low will bring the chance of more rain and thunderstorms Wednesday.

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The low from Oklahoma will head north into Missouri, putting our area on the west edge of the rain.  This will still keep conditions cloudy and cooler through the afternoon.

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MONDAY PM:  You can see on this model the rain is from KC east.  This is the most likely scenario.  It may even be a bit further east.  Notice the clearing in central Kansas.

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MONDAY EVENING: We do clear out and will keep an eye on any thunderstorms that form in central Kansas.  If we clear after 4-5 PM it will be too late to heat up enough for severe weather.  So, most likely the severe threat will stay low as our instability stays down.

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Tuesday will be drier, warm and humid as this system moves by.  Our next thunderstorm chance after today is Wednesday.  This has a severe chance as the instability will be high, but the front may move through before it has a chance to fire and also a warm front may set up to our south and we could have morning thunderstorms, keeping the temperatures down.  We will have more on this Tuesday.

Have a great day.

Jeff