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More Thunderstorms?

Good Wednesday night,

Well, we had the thunderstorms Wednesday morning as a disturbance we were tracking yesterday in northern Colorado and southwest Nebraska moved across the region.  We discussed this possibility  on Tuesday.  Now, could the same thing happen again Thursday?  There are growing signs that it could.  And, if it does occur, there will be some areas with heavy rain and others with a few drops.  It is hard to tell where the heaviest will fall until we see how it is evolving.  The models are not good with the details of thunderstorms. but they can be good with a general idea.  This morning St. Joseph received 2.98″, KCI had 0.35″ and Johnson County had a trace-.05″.

We look to the west once again and there are thunderstorms increasing from Wyoming to Colorado.  These are being caused by the next series of disturbances heading east.  The models are all over the place on how this will evolve, but below we will show you one of the latest runs of data.

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This is the latest HRRR model.  This model did pretty good with the rain this morning, while the GFS, NAM and RUC were all over the place.  So, here it is and it has another cluster of rain and thunderstorms approaching Thursday morning.  This is not set in stone and Gary will know much more at 10 PM tonight as he gets more new data and can see how things are evolving in the Plains.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Heat and Thunderstorms

Good Tuesday night,

The rain we received over the weekend is now evaporating with these 90 degree temperatures.  Dew points are mostly between 75° and 80°.  This means the temperature has to drop only to 75°-80° for the humidity to be 100%.  This means there is quite a bit of water in the air, creating some rather high heat index values.  Here is the dew point scale and many dew points today are off this chart.

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DEW POINTS TUESDAY: Look at these readings with 80° plus from Harrisonville to Bethany.  There is a reason why it is higher in these locations.  These cities are in a more rural setting surrounded by corn and soybean fields.  Those plants are evapotranspirating the recent moisture they just received.  This will add a few degrees to the dew point.  Regardless, it is rather humid in all areas.

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HEAT INDEX TUESDAY: The heat index is dangerously high, look at the 120° in Richmond.

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So, we have the heat and humidity and often when the humidity gets this high it is very hard to keep thunderstorms away.  When the atmosphere is this juiced, it does not take much to create thunderstorms and once they form, they keep going with all of the available moisture.  Well, it looks like there is a disturbance emanating from the Rockies as a weak surface trough lies over western Nebraska.  This is now touching off thunderstorms as of Tuesday evening.  We are watching these closely and they are almost 300 miles away.  So, they have a chance to arrive 4-7 AM.  They would end during the morning, leading to a very warm and steamy Wednesday afternoon.

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The next 5-7 days will see chances of thunderstorms along with high humidity.  A weak cold front will move through Thursday night followed by another weak system for the weekend, so we may have a few days with highs in the 80s Friday-Sunday.  Have a great night and stay cool.

Jeff

Some impressive weekend rainfall

Make no mistake about it: this weekend was a soaker. Some truly outstanding rainfall amounts in some areas, including Kansas City. However, the forecast wasn’t perfect. It’s always interesting to go back and see how the forecast guidance handled the event once it’s over. In the video blog tonight, we do just that. Plus, we go into details about rainfall amounts. And hopefully you’ve enjoyed the break from the heat. July is about to get cooking, in truly Summer fashion.

Have a happy (and safe) holiday,
-JD

As expected, we’ve got rain

Some have already seen some very big rain amounts today. But we’re not done. Another couple rounds of rain are already headed this way. Get the latest update in my video blog:

Have a nice weekend,
-JD

The Rain Storm is Here

Happy 4th of July,

Well, we need the rain and we are in for quite a bit through Sunday.  It is too bad we are seeing the rain over the holiday weekend, but we do need this.  There will be areas seeing too much of a good thing as flooding is possible.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: The set up today is one in which it will be hard to shut the faucet off for an extended period of time.  There will be a main surface low located over western Kansas with a warm front extending east along I-70 then southeast into southern Missouri.  This is a strong warm front as it separates 90s from upper 50s!  Rain and thunderstorms will be generating all day into tonight along and north of this warm front.  The I-70 corridor appears to be in the main zone.  It is this main zone where the flash flooding threat is the highest.

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SUNDAY: The main storm will be moving east and the heavy thunderstorm threat will shift to the I-44 corridor.  We will be in a cool and cloudy corridor with some mist, drizzle and a few rain showers as temperatures stay in the 60s.  There will be a chance for a few hours in the 70s during the morning as the warm sector gets close.

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RAINFALL FORECAST:  Wow!  There is the potential for as much as 6″-8″ of rain in some locations.  It is looking like the I-70 corridor is being targeted for the heaviest rain as this where the main heavy rain development zone is located north of the warm front.  Northern Missouri may see around an 1″.  The zone of heaviest rainfall may still shift south or north 50 miles from the below forecast.

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY: Even though it has been so dry the last 5 weeks, you can still see flooding issues with this set up as there will be some rainfall rates 1″-3″ per hour.  It is these locations that can have flash flooding.  TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN, as it takes just six inches to one foot of water to wash away a full sized SUV.  If we do see 6″-8″ of rain in some locations the creeks and rivers will rise for sure, and may overflow.  So, yes you can go from drought to deluge in a hurry.

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DRY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY: The storm will be exiting Sunday afternoon, so it looks dry for Monday.  The day will start cloudy, but end up with decent sunshine as highs rise to around 80°.  Temperatures will fall to around 70° during fireworks time.

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Have a happy and safe 4th of July and DO NOT DRINK AND DRIVE.  There is a Drunk Driving Watch in effect as well.

Jeff

 

My what soggy fireworks you have

There are times where it seems the atmosphere doesn’t care what we humans have planned. This weekend is one of those times. After sweating our way through June, we will be greeted with a soggy start to July. Yes, right when many are looking to head outdoors and light various things on fire (charcoals, fireworks, etc). Rain gauges could be overflowing by the time we all head back to work on Tuesday. Quite the change from June where I’m willing to bet most of us produced more perspiration than the clouds gave up in rain. Officially, June will go down as the 3rd driest on record for Kansas City.
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Keep in mind that May and June are typically the two wettest months of the year, with each expected to give up 5.23″ of rainfall. Obviously, that did not happen. So we start off the month of July in the hole…
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…But that’s not going to last long. We’ve been saying for days to plan for rain over the weekend.
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There is already a flash flood watch in place for the greater coverage area.
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The guidance is still bouncing back and forth on just how much rain will fall. There is some great agreement between the GFS, NAM, & RPM models. In general, they are placing the heaviest rain along the I-70 corridor in Missouri.  This is a rough idea of that agreement:
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The Euro has decided to carve out a different path suddenly and place the heaviest rain up into Northern Missouri.
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Of course, that is just one run of one model. As we have said over and over: there is still time for things to change and nothing is totally set in stone.

Based on the overall pattern we’ve been in for months & the newest trends of the guidance, it appears those between I-70 and I-80 could see the heaviest rainfall over the whole weekend.
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A big question we’ve heard a lot already: how is it looking for fireworks displays? Well, right now, not very good until Monday.
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In an effort to find some silver lining here, the clouds and the rain will make for cooler days. Highs are only going to be in the 60s and 70s this weekend. It’d be a great time to turn off the A/C and open the windows a bit (when the rain isn’t falling). Your electric bill will like this.

Like anything else, this weekend will be a fluid situation–no pun intended. You will need to keep checking back with us for forecast updates. If you plan to travel or camp, it’d be a great idea to watch our live streaming newscasts and keep apps such as Storm Shield handy.
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Remember to send along your reports this weekend, no matter where you may be. Twitter, Facebook, email, are all good ways to pass those along.
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Here is to hoping your area picks up the rain it needs, and the flooding stay away.
-JD

Wet 4th of July Weekend?

Good Tuesday night,

The rain chances are increasing with each passing day.  All of a sudden we have had rain in the area 3 of the last 4 days.  We are in northwest flow Wednesday-Friday, which means we are tracking countless disturbances and boundaries from the northern Plains and Rockies.  This time of year, with all of the moisture available, this means there are chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.  The timing and amounts are hard to forecast more than 12-24 hours in advance, so we will have to take this one day at a time.

Then, we turn our attention to the holiday weekend.

The main jet stream will be retreated across Canada.  In our region, the I-70 corridor, you can see a line with wiggles in it.  These wiggle are disturbances and this weekend there will be a decent system in the Rockies drifting this way.  Let’s take a closer look at this.

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This is a zoomed in version.  We have the system in Colorado moving slowly east, a stationary front to our south, the Gulf moisture already laying around the Plains and Midwest along with the addition of the monsoon moisture (Monsoon moisture is the moisture that creeps its way into the southwest USA during the summer and increases thunderstorm activity in the southwest USA.).  These features will combine to bring areas of rain, heavy at times, especially Saturday and Sunday, across Kansas and Missouri.  It is hard to tell where the bulls eye will be located, but most areas could see 2″-4″ of rain.  The bulls eye could contain as much as 6″ of rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH JULY 4TH: This is the European model from 12z Tuesday.  If we get in the main rain corridor these amounts will be realized.  Also, keep in mind, this time of year you can see 2″-3″ of rain in one hour, so as I said, if we get into the main rain corridor these amounts will be easy to reach.  These amounts also include anything that falls Wednesday-Friday.

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It does look like the actual 4th of July should be dry, so we can salvage one of the weekend days.  If your yard or farm is still thirsty, hang on!

Have a great night.

Jeff

Monday Night Thunderstorms?

Good Monday night,

There is a weak cold front drifting south across the region tonight.  There have been a few thunderstorms along this front during the afternoon across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.  This small cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast at 15-20 mph.  So, if the thunderstorms hold together they will reach KC around 10 PM.  This could affect the Royals game.  There is a 20-30% chance that they hold together.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING: The thunderstorms have had the potential to produce 60 mph winds and golf ball sized hail.  There has even been some rotation detected by radar as well.  So, we will keep a close eye on this thunderstorm cluster.

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TUESDAY MORNING:  If the thunderstorms fall apart, there will be new chances later tonight into early Tuesday as the weak front continues south and a disturbance moves by as well.  So, there may very well be more scattered thunderstorms later tonight into Tuesday morning.  Some locations may see .25″ to 1″ of rain, while others see nothing.  This model has the best rain chance behind the front, but the thunderstorms tomorrow morning could end up anywhere.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Tomorrow afternoon is looking nice with sunshine, highs in the 80s and a bit lower humidity as the front pushes away.

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If your yard or farm is still thirsty after tonight, there will be many chances into the holiday weekend as we go into northwest flow.  The best thunderstorm chances appear to be Thursday and Saturday, but we will have to take the forecast one day at a time.

Have a good night.

Jeff

 

Pockets of rain, still humid as we go into Sunday

As expected, it was a stuffy Saturday. Highs climbed into the low to middle 90s. But that humidity made it feel so much worse. I don’t see it changing much going into Sunday. That said, there is a cold front coming our way tonight. It could be enough to ignite some thunderstorms overnight. Severe weather threat is low, but some stronger thunderstorms are not out of the question.
In the video blog tonight, we look over the chances and talk about the cooler air coming for next week.

Have a great night and GO ROYALS!
-JD

We Need Rain

Good Saturday,

This June has officially seen 0.60″ of rain at KCI which is about 4″ below average for the month.  The rain events have been falling apart as they approach the city.  Well, we have another chance of rain later tonight and Sunday as a cold front approaches.

In order to have a green lawn, you need 1″ to 2″ of rain per week.  So, we are well short.  There are locations in northern Missouri and eastern Kansas where there has been some decent rain, the driest is the KC metro.  The next 7 days we have the chance of seeing .50″ to 2″ as we have two main rain chances.  Let’s take a look at the first chance.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Today we will see highs in the low to mid 90s with no rain.  A cold front will be located from northwest Kansas to northwest Iowa.  Thunderstorms will form on this front.

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SATURDAY 8 PM:  The thunderstorms will be increasing as the front moves southeast.  The evening here in KC will be likely dry, so it looks good, but hot for the Royals game.

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SATURDAY NIGHT: The front and thunderstorms will be moving into northwest Missouri by around 10 PM.  They have a chance to be in KC by 12-2 AM.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The showers and thunderstorms will be hopefully moving through KC 2-5 AM.  The sooner they arrive, the better chance we have of seeing bigger rain amounts as they will be in weakening phase.

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SUNDAY MORNING 5-9 AM: You can see by 7-8 AM the rain falls apart.  So, the faster it arrives the better chance we have of seeing some decent rain.  If it slows down, you can see how we could get missed again.  This is the main rain chance for Sunday as the front moves southeast by afternoon.

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Our second chance of decent rain arrives Wednesday as a disturbance tracks in from the northwest as we are in the cooler air.  The latest data is less impressive with the rain chance, but it is not set in stone.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff