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Rainfall Potential In The First Week Of Summer

Good morning bloggers,

Today is the first full day of summer and it will be a hot one. This week is going to be a fascinating one to track thunderstorms and heat.  Let’s begin with our weather forecast time-line:

  • Today:  Sunny, hot, windy, and humid. There is no chance of rain through 7 PM.  It’s a good pool day, but hold onto your hats as the south wind will blow at up to 30 mph.  High: 95°
  • Tonight: A chance of a few thunderstorms. A few of these may become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe weather risk type. Low:  66°
  • Tuesday:  A chance of morning thunderstorms. Conditions are not as favorable for severe thunderstorms.  Cooler with highs in the 80s.

An active warm front with favorable conditions aloft triggered large thunderstorms in parts of our viewing area Sunday.  This week will have some similar set-ups. Take a look at the interesting rainfall forecast from the overnight GFS model:

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This is the rainfall forecast for the five day period ending Friday night.  Look at it goes from no rain to over 3″ of rain from around Emporia, KS to Columbia, MO. And, you think our forecast for the meteorologists is going to be easy? Well, obviously we have some challenges.  We will sort out today’s set-up and go over the details on our weathercasts.

Have a great start to the week.

Gary

 

Turning quiet this evening

What a bumpy afternoon across portions of the coverage area today, thanks to strong wind and flooding caused by some big-time storms that rolled through just after the lunch hour. Some locales got pelted with some good sized ice chunks as well. But now this evening, this is how the radar looks.
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For the rest of tonight, I do not expect any more rain or t-storms for the Metro area. What’s going on to the Northeast & East of KC may linger for a little bit longer before falling apart. We can give thanks to the rain though. It really helped to keep a lid on temps this afternoon. Check out how warm it is this afternoon in parts of Kansas.
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As of publishing time, these are the rainfall numbers reported at the official collection sites. As always, your backyard measuring device will vary.
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As far as the heat goes, you’d be right in thinking that the heat in Central & Western Kansas is headed this way! Not quite triple-digits, but it will be toasty (and humid) on Monday. A heat advisory is already in place.
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This means we’ll experience heat index values between 100° & 107° in some areas. Please be sure to drink plenty of water and limit your time outdoors if you can.
In addition to that, expect it to be windy Monday. Southwest wind around 25-35mph is likely in many areas, with gusts near 40mph not out of the question.

Is there any kind of good news that I have? Well… yes. As it stands now (don’t hold my feet to the fire just yet), we have a chance at getting a dry weekend next weekend. Both the GFS & Euro models agree on that. But as we know all too well, there is plenty of time for things to change. Keep in mind we have not had a totally dry weekend since March 20th. We’re due!

For tonight, we will continue to keep eyes on the radar and provide updates on air & online if/when needed.

Wishing all the dads out there a very happy Father’s Day.
-JD

The First Day of Summer

1230 PM UPDATE: The zone of thunderstorms stalled just north of I-70.  There has been flooding and severe weather from Kearney to Richmond.  The zone will likely stay in place the next 2-3 hours.  At the time of writing this blog there was a bit of a weakening trend, but we will have to watch this.  After 3-4 PM the threat will diminish as a wave in southeast Nebraska moves by.

 

1010 AM UPDATE:

The thunderstorms we had been waiting for exploded about 830-9 Am from Leavenworth to Carrollton.  They formed near a stationary front.  A few produced large hail around Smithville.  The thunderstorms will continue this morning.  They will weaken some and shift north through the day as the front lifts north as a warm front.  They are moving west-northwest to east-southeast, but the zone will shift north.  Those south of I-70 will remain dry today.

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Happy Father’s day and first day of summer.  Summer begins at 11:38 AM.  Today will be hot and humid with a slight chance of thunderstorms as a weak front is lingering in the area and a disturbances is trying to head this way from Nebraska.

RADAR FROM 7 AM SUNDAY: We are keeping an eye on the showers and thunderstorms in Nebraska.  They are weakening and heading this way.  There is a disturbance up there.  This system + the front in the area may touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms today, especially across northern Missouri and Iowa.  It is something to watch and JD will be back this afternoon with an update.

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POWERCAST 630 PM SUNDAY: You can see there are thunderstorms across northern Missouri.  This confirms our thinking at the time I am writing this blog.  It is not set in stone, but seems reasonable.  The front begins to lift north as a warm front.

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POWERCAST NOON MONDAY: The warm front is long gone to the north and we will be windy, hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 90s.  This will be like Saturday and it is set in stone.

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The rest of the week will be hot with slight thunderstorm chances.  This is the week we picked out as a hot week during our summer forecast from a month ago.  This is not the start of a hot summer, as July will be like May, see the LRC.

You can catch updates all day online at www.kshb.com/weather

Have a great Father’s day and JD will have an update later today.

 

Jeff

Saturday Evening Forecast Update

Good Saturday night bloggers,

A cold front is headed this way, but the “cap” is preventing thunderstorms from forming on the front across western Missouri and northeast Kansas.  A few tried to form around 630 PM in northwest Missouri but they quickly fell apart.  The “cap” is warm air aloft.  This warm air prevents the air from rising enough to create cumulonimbus clouds.  A few small ones formed this evening but the “cap” shut down the updrafts.  It is a different story in northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa.  The “cap” was weaker and the thunderstorms exploded with all of the heat and humidity fuel.

RADAR FROM 819 PM:  The front is lit up with thunderstorms east of Bethany and it is represented by a thin green line north of Topeka

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Now this front will stall near I-70 on Father’s day morning.  This may help to generate a few thunderstorms.  The front will lift back north later Sunday and any thunderstorms that form will return to the Iowa-Missouri border.

I will be in Sunday morning with an update.

Have a great night.

Jeff

Heat and Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

OK, it has been 12 weekends in a row with rain.  Will the streak end?  Well, a few thunderstorms are possible, so the answer officially may be no, as today and most of Father’s Day will be dry and hot.  First, lets talk about the heat.

HEAT ADVISORY TODAY: Highs will reach the mid 90s with heat indices 100° to 105°.  A south wind gusting to 30-35 mph will take the edge off of the heat.

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HIGHS TODAY:

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Then, we turn our attention to the chance of thunderstorms tonight.  A weak cold front will sag into the area and interact with the heat and humidity.  This will bring a good chance of thunderstorms to southern Iowa and northeast Missouri.  We are on the southwest edge of the chance of thunderstorms.  The reason is that there is a “cap”, which means warm air aloft, that prevents thunderstorms from forming.  This “cap” is weaker to the north and east.  Around here we will see if the heat and humidity will allow the air to rise enough to break the “cap”.  There is a slight risk of severe weather, but we are on the southwest edge.

SLIGHT RISK TONIGHT:

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Lets go through the set up this afternoon and night into Sunday morning.

3 PM TODAY: The front will be drifting south as we are windy, hot and humid.

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730 PM TODAY: The front is in northern Missouri.  Thunderstorms will try to get going.  If they do a few could see winds over 55 mph.

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130 AM SUNDAY: You can see the best chance of thunderstorms will be across eastern Missouri.

 

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8 AM SUNDAY: The front will stall in the area.  This will bring a slight chance of Father’s day thunderstorms, especially during the morning before the front lifts back to the north.

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So, this may be the 13th straight weekend with rain in the area!  If KCI does not see rain then officially it will be a dry weekend.

Have a great weekend and happy Father’s day to all of the dad’s out there.

Jeff

Streak of 12 straight wet weekends may end

Good morning bloggers,

It has rained 12 straight weekends. The last dry weekend was on the first weekend of spring during the weekend of March 21st. Since then it has rained at least a trace, and a lot more than that on many of the weekends:

  • March 28th: Dry, March 29th: Trace
    April 4th: Dry, April 5th: Trace
    April 11th: Dry, April 12th: 0.53″
    April 18th: 0.76″, April 19th: 0.28″
    April 25th: 0.56″, April 26th: Trace
    May 2nd: 0.03″, May 3rd: Trace
    May 9th: 0.12″, May 10th: 0.46″
    May 16th: 1.74″, May 17th: 0.22″
    May 23rd: 1.52″, May 24th: 0.69″
    May 30th: 0.07″, May 31st: Trace
    June 6th: 0.12″. June 7th: 0.15″
    June 13th: 0.08″, June 14th: 0.30″
    Total rainfall for the dozen wet weekends: 7.63″
    Total rainfall on Saturday’s: 5.00″
    Total rainfall on Sunday’s: 2.63″

Not only has it rained on 12 straight weekends, it has also rained every Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday since April and 41 of the past 50 days in the KC metro area.  It did rain on Thursday when we ends up in a little band of showers and thunderstorms on the northern edge of the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill.  But, it will be dry today and this will end the Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday streak. And, an anticyclone is building in.

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There will likely be what is called the “ring of fire” north and east of the developing anticyclone. And, as you can see above the thunderstorms are forecast to potentially ride along the edge of the developing anticyclone from South Dakota southeast across Iowa to northeastern Missouri.  This area could easily shift southwest with the production of outflow boundaries, but right now the trend is for us to dry out, and it may finally be a dry weekend in KC.

Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today: A few clouds around the northwest edge of the remnants of Bill. There is no chance of rain. Wow, did I say that? High: 83° with a light northeast to east breeze
  • Saturday: A blast of  heat moves in on the last day of spring. High: 95° with southwest winds 10-25 mph
  • Sunday:  Hot & humid. High: 95°

Have a great weekend. Has anyone had to water? I know my sprinklers have yet to be on all year.  We will go over this developing anticyclone on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

Bring on Summer

Good Morning!

It is quiet this morning across Kansas City with mostly cloudy skies.  We are stuck into between two different features this morning.

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The first being the northern bands of rain associated with Tropical Depression Bill.  These may push up into the southern edge of our viewing area, but stay south of metro Kansas City.  The second is a line of showers and thunderstorms plunging southeast out of Central Nebraska.  They will continue to weaken as they get closer, but NE Kansas & a small part of NW Missouri may see some heavy rain late morning from this line.  This doesn’t mean we will be dry today here in the metro.  During the peak heating time of day, we will have to watch for pop-up showers that will be very hit or miss.  This will be very similar to yesterday.

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We are moving into a semi drier period, but we could still see anywhere from a quarter of an inch to an inch especially in spots southeast of KC where we could get a very bands of heavy rain as Bill moves northeast.  If you are heading down to the Ozarks or Branson be careful.  There maybe some flash flooding today and tomorrow, but the rain will move out Saturday and the back half of the weekend will be better.

Speaking of the weekend…  SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGINS!!!  It looks like mother nature is going to follow suit.  Temperatures will reach into the middle 90s on Saturday and we could see that last through next week.  So those of you that have been patiently waiting for a good pool week…ding ding it is here!

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Have a great day!

Kalee

 

The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Bill Drifting North

Good morning bloggers,

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill will likely stay well south of Kansas City. The lower level circulation may still spin some additional moisture into our area. A few showers and thunderstorms will likely form the next three days, but we are not forecasting any wide spread rain this far north. I will discuss this below.

Today’s Weather Time-Line:

  • Now-Noon: Some sunshine will actually breaking out.  Expect partly cloudy and dry conditions with temperatures warming up into the upper 70s.
  • Noon-6 PM:  Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of a few thunderstorms popping up.

Take a look at this picture from Tuesday evening. There was just one rain shower weakening off to the east, but the conditions were perfect for this beautiful rainbow:

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The rain just keeps coming down, but it has become much lighter on the amounts in recent days.  Take a loot at this month so far:

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As you can see, KCI Airport has only had 0.68″ of rain in the past nine days, so it has definitely dried out a bit. A few spots around the viewing area have had a lot more than this, but it has definitely been a decreasing trend.  Add this onto the May totals, and you can see that 14.63″ of rain has fallen since May 1st and it has now rained 39 of the last 47 days.

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So, what is next?  The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are currently just south of us this morning. This moisture will circulate around a weakening low pressure area, that will likely hold together all the way into Missouri.  There is often a band of thunderstorms  that forms north of these tropical circulation and we have to monitor our area closely for such development later this afternoon and evening.

And, then there is a potential heat wave in the outlook for next week. This is the part of the cycling weather pattern, according to the LRC, where we have been forecasting for 12 weeks now to arrive beginning around the 20th.  It likely is right on schedule, but we have to wait another few days.  Which locations will be affected by the strongest part of this first heat surge of the summer, and how hot will it get in KC?  It appears that the western half of Kansas will get the hottest air and it will stretch east beginning Saturday.

Remember a heat wave is defined, in our area, to be three consecutive days of 95° or hotter. A surge of warm to hot air will begin developing as the tropical system moves away and I will be discussing the cycling pattern in the Weather2020 blog.  The pattern is cycling in the 45 to 50 day range, and you can expect another tropical system near the Texas coast 45 to 50 days from now.

What we can expect in the next 30 days:

  • The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill weaken and move by during the next three days
  • A huge warm-up and some drier weather for three to seven days beginning Saturday
  • Another cold front should be able to penetrate the developing heat and bring us a chance of very heavy thunderstorms in the eight to twelve day range
  • More heat would then build in ahead of the cold phase of the cycling pattern that is due in July

Have a great Wednesday. We will keep you updated on 41 Action News today and tonight. Kalee Dionne and I have been working the shifts this week with JD and Jeff taking a few days off.

Gary

Rain Chances Go Way Down For a While

Good early morning bloggers,

Meteorologist Kalee Dionne is on 41 Action News through noon today with updates.  A weak cold front came through yesterday and there were some very heavy downpours scattered around. The front is weakening and still pushing south this morning and it has left us with a cloudy start to the day.  There is nothing obvious to trigger any showers or thunderstorms today, so the chance is way down, likely into Thursday.  And, Thursday into Friday’s chance of thunderstorms may depend on the track of Tropical Storm Bill.

Today’s Weather Time-Line:

  • Now through Noon:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few sprinkles or light rain showers through the morning. Temperatures warming into the 70s.
  • Noon to 6 PM: Mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine possible. High in the upper 70s with a light easterly to southeasterly breeze. The chance of measurable rain goes down to 20% later today.

Tropical Storm Bill WV SAT June 16

We will update the blog later on today!

Gary

12 Straight Wet Weekends

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Now until noon:  Some sunshine breaking out and temperatures warming up into the upper 7os. Staying dry!
  • Noon to 6 PM:  Widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. The chance of rain is 70%.  A few heavy downpours are likely.

There is a weak front in the area that should become better defined by this evening. The heaviest thunderstorms are most likely near this frontal zone and we will identify this area on our weathercasts today and tonight.

I was in Raleigh, NC for the AMS Broadcast Conference last week with around 200 meteorologists in attendance.  The weather in Raleigh was nice, but I am glad to be back in the wet lands of the plains.

It has rained 12 straight weekends. The last dry weekend was on the first weekend of spring during the weekend of March 21st. Since then it has rained at least a trace, and a lot more than that on many of the weekends:

  • March 28th: Dry, March 29th: Trace
  • April 4th:  Dry, April 5th: Trace
  • April 11th:  Dry, April 12th:  0.53″
  • April 18th:  0.76″, April 19th:  0.28″
  • April 25th:  0.56″, April 26th: Trace
  • May 2nd:  0.03″, May 3rd:  Trace
  • May 9th:  0.12″, May 10th:  0.46″
  • May 16th:  1.74″, May 17th:  0.22″
  • May 23rd:  1.52″, May 24th:  0.69″
  • May 30th:  0.07″, May 31st:  Trace
  • June 6th:  0.12″. June 7th: 0.15″
  • June 13th:  0.08″, June 14th:  0.30″
  • Total rainfall for the dozen wet weekends:  7.63″
  • Total rainfall on Saturday’s:  5.00″
  • Total rainfall on Sunday’s:  2.63″

It appears the streak will continue next weekend.  Between now and then there is a chance of rain just about every day this week and now we are tracking a tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico:

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Where is this system going to track? There is a lot of uncertainty as to how strong it will be as it reaches the Texas coast, and then the exact track that will likely take this system into Missouri by Thursday or Friday.

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This map above shows just one of many solution for where this tropical system will track. As you can see, it is something we will have to pay close attention to. Texas has had a little break allowing them to dry out in recent weeks, but this system appears that it will target some of the areas that had the historic May flooding.  It is something that should come into focus by tomorrow.

Speaking of uncertainty…….There was a slide in one of the presentations at the conference that showed the following:

Communication of Uncertainty Information:

“Weather Forecasters” – People who have turned the unknown into a profession, negotiating between uncertainty and credibility loss.   – Phaedra Daipha (Rutgers, Associate Professor of Sociology)

Forecasting the weather can be quite humbling at times, and the forecast for this week again brings many challenges. Have a great start to your week and we will have KC’s most accurate forecast on 41 Action News.

Gary