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Less Than 25 Days From The New Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  According to the CPH a unique weather pattern will be setting up and the pattern we have experienced for the past year will get wiped out.  This pattern we just experienced, and it isn’t quite done yet, has produced some rather fascinating weather across the Northern Hemisphere from the two recent hurricane disasters to the obliteration of the western drought with record snowfall over the Sierra Nevada.  Within 25 days something brand new will have started.

Speaking of the Sierra Nevada. Look at this rare waterspout over Lake Tahoe, on the lake, and a Tornado Warning was issued for the north shore as this rotated around a strong thunderstorm:

I still dream of living there some day. This past year has been just fascinating. The drought got obliterated and now this.

Hurricane Irma just destroyed many of those early island hits such as St. Martin and others in that area just east of Puerto Rico.  Irma could have been much worse in the United States, but fortunately it went inland near Marco Island. The fact it traversed the entire Florida Peninsula created many more power outages due to the amount of populations it tracked across.  There was a reverse storm surge in many areas, and then there was a “normal” storm surge on the east coast of Florida all the way up into the Georgia and South Carolina coast. Take a look at what washed ashore near Hilton Head:

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Many residents left Hilton Head Island way in advance of Irma. There were a few model runs that had South Carolina getting a direct hit, so residence did leave early in many incidents. But, there was one visitor that showed up because of the storm.  This visitor, that lives out over the ocean,  was red, weighed 13,000 pounds, and will likely not be moved out for a long time. 13,000 pounds! Wow, and you can see a couple of dogs wondering what that big thing was, and did you ever realize how big these Buoys  are, 13,000 pounds, as I say it for the third time?  I am heading to Hilton Head for the first time in two weeks. I bet it will still be there.

DSCN4475Sunny The Weather Dog found the sprinklers this morning. After a summer where most of the Kansas City residents did not even need to water their lawns in July and August, suddenly it became necessary during this current dry spell. Kansas City is now up to 18 days in a row without any measurable rain.  This dry streak may get a break this weekend as a cold front moves through. There is another tropical system to monitor closely, well really two systems. Jose continues to spin over the Atlantic Ocean and it is making a move towards the east coast, but will likely curve offshore. It still needs to be monitored closely. And, another system is forming near Baja California.  This system will likely spread some moisture into the southwestern states and possibly out into the plains. The GFS model has been the most aggressive with this moisture by Tuesday and it even tracks it over KC early next week.  This can be seen on the overnight GFS, in fact you can see both tropical systems:

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In tomorrows blog we discuss the second season of severe weather season. There is, what has been called, the “second season” as the “first season” is spring severe weather season. In KC I think we would all agree that summer was almost more active that spring, but it certainly did calm down in the past three weeks.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Let us know if you have any questions. We have been having some great conversations over on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

Clouds From Irma Make It All The Way To Kansas

Good morning bloggers,

A swirling band of showers and thunderstorms moved off the west coast of Africa on August 26th and then Tropical Storm Irma formed a few days later near the Cape Verde Islands. Irma strengthened into a CAT 5 hurricane as it blasted some of the islands like St. Martin with a direct hit before tracking just north of Puerto Rico. A few days later Irma drifted into the north coast of Cuba where it weakened as the eye went over some land areas. The storm then turned north and wobbled into the Florida Keys and then tracked across the sunshine state.  The clouds have now made their way into Kansas this morning. Here is Sunny The Weather Dog showing off the clouds:

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Weak Hurricane Jose can be seen as well as the cloud cover from the remnants of Irma backing into Oklahoma and Kansas this morning.  Jose is forecast to do a big loop and then likely stay off the east coast of the United States. We still have to monitor Jose closely.  We just passed the peak of hurricane season. I looked into the pattern and just as the new Cycling Pattern sets up according to my hypothesis there will be another chance of a major hurricane developing later in September or early in October. Between now and then the tropics should quiet down just a bit.

Where is the rain? In KC today is our 16th day in a row without any measurable rain, barely even a drop in most areas. This dry trend will continue for a few more days.  September is not supposed to be this dry?  We will look deeper into the pattern in tomorrows blog.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

Irma Weakens & Jose Is In A Holding Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

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Hurricane Irma made landfall on Sunday and then moved inland near Marco Island. Once Irma moved inland a steady weakening happened sparing Florida a worst case scenario.  You can see what is left of weakening Irma this morning, but also Hurricane Jose that is in a holding pattern east of the Bahamas.  Jose will be monitored closely and we have another week to track Jose.

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Jose is going to do a complete loop in the next few days and I will show it on the air tonight on 41 Action News.  Jose will then make a move towards the east coast. The models I looked at this morning mostly keep Jose out to sea, but there are some models that bring Jose into the mid-Atlantic or northeast coast.  I haven’t done a complete analysis of the pattern yet, so let me do that and we can discuss in the comments over on Weather2020.com.

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This map above shows the European Model forecast valid at 7 AM Sunday. Jose can be seen off the Florida coast, and a cold front with a chance of thunderstorms is stretching across the upper midwest into the plains states. Kansas City is having another very dry first half of the month, in fact not one drop of rain yet this month. We will look into this change in the next few days.

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Have a great start to Monday.  Again, I am quite proud of our weather team as 41 Action News won the Emmy for best news special with our Winter Weather Special featuring our winter forecast and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  We are now just two and a half months away from our winter forecast as the new pattern is about to set up.

Gary

Major Hurricane Irma Moves Into Florida

Good morning bloggers,

Landfall Of Irma

Hurricane Irma, a Category 4 storm, was crossing the Florida Keys this morning as I was writing this blog entry.  The eye of the hurricane was crossing Cudjoe Key near Pirates Cove and there are many homes in this area as you can see here:

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Hurricane Irma:

  • 130 mph sustained winds with gusts to 150 mph near the eye wall
  • On the Keys at 8:45 AM eastern time
  • Moving northwest at 7 mph
  • Tracking towards Fort Myers & Marco Island & Naples Florida

This category 4 storm may still intensify as it approaches the main Florida coast line.  Miami and Fort Lauderdale will be spared the worst, but there have been tornado warnings on that quadrant of the storm. All of Florida will be hit hard by this historic storm. It is just taking a perfect track to have an impact statewide. It will be tracking into Georgia tonight.

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This radar map above shows the eye over the keys. Now, where will it track from here. It was still drifting northwest at 7 mph. It will likely turn more northward and pick up speed a bit, but when?

Irma stats

This is the latest forecast path. If it would just be a bit east of this track the eye would move over land and Irma would begin weakening faster, but this track keeps it over the water with a worst case scenario for all of the coastal cities on the west coast of Florida.

Rainfall Forecast Next 15 days:

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You can see the tropical systems with all of the rain in the yellow colors, but look at Kansas City. Could we do it again? Of course we can! The second half of another month will likely be wetter than the first half. This has happened in every month this year with the exception of April, but it was wet in both halves of that fourth month of the year. There is no chance of rain through the first half of September, but there are a couple of chances showing up in the next ten days.

I am so proud of our weather team! Congratulations to Candi, our producer, and Tom Brown our director, and to our weather team at 41 Action News, Lindsey, Nicole, Gerard, and Jeff. Jeff Penner was there in St. Louis when it was announced that our Winter Weather Special won the Emmy for Best News Special last n right in St. Louis:

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Jeff looks pretty excited! We will have to post the link to the winning show in the next day or two. I will look for it. Have a great Sunday, and let’s keep our friends and relatives in Florida in our positive thoughts and hope that we can get through today with a limited number of fatalities. Unfortunately we are not going to avoid the worst in some of the targeted locations on the west coast of Florida. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

Irma Heading to Florida & Dry KC

Good Saturday,

We continue to track powerful hurricane Irma.  We will have the latest on Irma and end with a look the forecast for KC.

The tropics remain active and Irma’s friend Katia is history as she moved into Mexico last night.  We still have Jose and Irma, both category 4 hurricanes. Jose is now turning north into the Atlantic and will just graze the islands devastated by Irma.

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Irma was interacting with a mountainous Cuba and so she weakened to a minimal category 4, still quite strong.  As of 8 AM she had 130 mph winds and was still paralleling the north Cuba coast. The eye was not as defined.

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The outer bands early Saturday morning were already affecting the south part of Florida.  You can see the eye on the north coast of Cuba.

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This is an interesting view of the track of Irma with the city lights at 4 AM Sunday.  Gary showed this on Friday and you can see the lack of lights in southwest Florida, which means much less population than around Miami.  So, this western track is good news over a more eastern track, as it will have the biggest impact over the much lower populated locations of Florida.

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Let’s track Irma through the wind forecast as this will be the biggest issue as opposed to Harvey where rain was the biggest problem.  Now, that being said, there will be flooding with Irma and a storm surge issue, but at least she will not stall.

SATURDAY 4 PM: You can see the eye still in northern Cuba with 90-125 mph winds on the northern eye wall.  The interaction with Cuba took Irma down a notch.

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SUNDAY 6 AM: Tonight Irma will be crossing the near 90° water between Cuba and Key West, so strengthening is likely.  The east eye wall will have 125-160 mph winds.  You can see the eye in blue, where winds are 5-15 mph.

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SUNDAY 3 PM: The eye will likely still be offshore, so it will remain quite strong with 125-160 mph winds in extreme southwest Florida with 90-125 mph winds elsewhere. You can see locations from Fort Lauderdale to Hollywood to Miami will see winds of 50-80 mph which is good news for these huge population centers.  Now, there will still be major impacts on the eastern side of Florida, but 50-80 mph winds are much better than 125 mph+.

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SUNDAY 6 PM: The eye is forecast to be near Naples.  Hopefully, Irma will be on shore so she can weaken.  If she tracks a bit farther west and remains over the water, Irma will weaken much slower.  The eye wall will be impacting Fort Myers as the 50-80 mph winds continue on the east coast.  The 125-160 mph winds will disappear.

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SUNDAY 9 PM: The eye may be near Fort Myers with the 90-125 mph winds shifting north and shrinking with 50-80 mph winds continuing on the east coast, but shifting north of Fort Lauderdale.  If the eye is off shore, then this will be different and Irma could be much stronger.

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MONDAY 10 AM: Irma will likely be in northern Florida with the eye near Gainesville.  Winds will be down as Irma will be a cat 1 or a tropical storm.  Now, this assumes mostly a land path.  Any farther west and a more offshore path could change the equation.

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TUESDAY 4 PM: Irma will be in the Tennessee Valley and the cloud shield will be huge.  It will be so huge that here in KC we may see the cirrus clouds from Irma.  We will not see any rain.

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So, in summary, Irma has weakened due to overnight interaction with Cuba. She will turn north tonight and strengthen as she moves over 90° waters between Cuba and Key West.  The track will be near the west coast of Florida which is good news for Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood and Miami.  Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa will have much bigger impacts.  It will be worse if Irma travels north offshore.  This is still a question.

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KC WEATHER:

After the wettest August in recorded history, we have not seen a drop of rain in the first 10 days of September.  So, all of a sudden, we could use a drink of water.

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There is a small system in Nebraska bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.  We will see some clouds from this system as it drops south over the weekend, but the rain will dissipate.  We do not have any rain in the forecast for the next 7 days.  The pattern may get more active after the 17th.

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Highs today and for that matter the next 7 days will be 80° to 85° with lows in the 50s and 60s.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Dangerous Hurricane Irma Threatens Florida

Good morning bloggers,

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Hurricane Irma has already been deadly and devastating over many islands on its path towards Florida. Now, where will it actually track. The hurricane is still on a steady west-northwest path and it will be making a hard turn to the north, but when will this turn take place?  The models are narrowing in on the most likely path. A few days ago I favored the path right up the middle of Florida due to some knowledge of what we know about the cycling weather pattern. I thought it would track to near Cuba before making the big turn. This continues to be the most favored path. If you have been following every model run, then you have seen so many solutions for where this powerful hurricane will track. Here are the many possible solutions from the spaghetti plots from early this morning valid at 6 PM Saturday, and then by early Sunday morning:

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The GFS and European models have converged on a solution to bring this hurricane into south Florida with the turn happening after it reaches the area just north of Cuba:

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This forecast above shows the GFS model solution of the Irma located only a few miles from Cuba at 2 PM eastern time Saturday.  This storm is still moving west-northwest at this point, but this is close to the time that the turn to the north will begin. A few hours later, then western Florida including Key West is more in the direct path, and a few hours earlier and Miami will be the target:

2By 8 AM Sunday, this GFS model is showing Major Hurricane Irma, likely a Category 4 storm, blasting the Florida Keys and about to track into the southern part of Florida.  This track will take Irma inland over more unpopulated areas of Florida, but this is just one of the possible forecasts, but one that I favor.  Just a 50 mile difference will be rather impacting. 50 miles farther to the east and Miami’s population center would be more in the direct path, and 50 miles farther west and Key West is more in the direct path. Either way there will be major impacts over many population centers in Florida.  This path down the middle of the state will allow for much more rapid weakening of the system, once it moves inland. The fuel, energy source, for hurricanes is the warm tropical water. Once the eye moves over any land mass, it will begin weakening, and this possible track is one that would likely see this system steadily weaken from a category 4 storm down to a Category 1 hurricane Sunday night into Monday as this system heads towards Georgia.

Just a few hours later, by 8 PM Sunday, this is where the GFS tracks this system:

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Here is an interesting map from Climateviewer.org showing the populations centers.  The city lights shows where most of the people live in Florida:

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This forecast track would take the eye of the storm over more unpopulated regions of Florida, but again this is just one of the forecasts. And, you can see what a 50 mile difference to the east would likely mean for the path going more directly over the population centers.  This track would still likely mean that all of south Florida would have Category 1 to Category 4 effects from Irma. There is a big difference between what would be the impacts from the full force of Irma. The track and strength of the storm at landfall will decide which areas have the catastrophic damage to the areas that have only some damage:

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Let’s see where the models track this system today.  The models should begin to narrow in and get a more consensus track as we are just two days from United States landfall from dangerous hurricane Irma.

Kansas City weather:

Suddenly it is dry. I may water the lawn for the first time all summer this weekend. It has not rained in September, and there is no chance of rain in sight.  There will be an effect from Irma over Missouri and Kansas as well, but it won’t be in the form of rain in KC. It will just influence a high pressure area to the north and northeast by early next week. We will look into this on 41 Action News today and tonight and in tomorrows blog entry. Here is the rainfall from this month, and last month:

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Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  Let us know if you have any questions and go ask them over on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

Opening Night Of The NFL Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

As Hurricane Irma continues powerful and a category 5 storm, the NFL season is ready to kickoff over New England.  Take a look at this mornings enhanced water vapor satellite picture:

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A storm has just moved off the northeast coast.  Sinking air is in its wake, and this will provide some great weather for the Kansas City Chiefs to go in and play the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots tonight on NBC.  We can see something else on this satellite picture.  Three hurricanes are seen with Hurricane Katia over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Jose off in the central Atlantic Ocean, and Major Hurricane Irma with 180 mph winds sustained near the eye wall tracking just north of the Dominican Republic today and threatening the Bahamas.

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There are still model solutions that track Major Hurricane Irma just inland near Miami then back out over water north of West Palm Beach, Florida.  This is the track that the European Model takes. This track is highly dependent on where the hurricane makes that north turn?

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Both of these pictures are from Weathertap.com, one of my favorite sites for radar and satellite pictures.  Let’s see how the models trend today. We have three more days to track this system before it makes a mainland United States landfall.

Have a great day. Go Chiefs, and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  Go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation on the blog over there.  I will check in from time to time.

Gary

Major Hurricane Irma Targets Southeast Coast

Good morning bloggers,

Powerful Hurricane Irma continues to track west and as of 7:30 AM Irma was almost directly over St. Martin. St. Martin has a population of around 78,000 people. There is a Dutch side and (Kingdom of the Netherlands) and a French side (French Republic).  Christopher Columbus landed there in 1493 on his voyage.  Today, St. Martin had to have been blasted by Major Hurricane Irma. The winds of Irma are still estimated at nearly 185 mph sustained with wind gusts to well over 200 mph. So, St. Martin has had to received massive damage today.

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The next target is Puerto Rico. The eye will likely track just north of that larger island, but hurricane force winds will be likely over the entire island.

The National Hurricane Center has adjusted the track farther west to go right over Florida. The trend, however, is for it to be just east of this center track and perhaps staying off the Florida coast.  This track keeps Irma over the water with a good chance that this will remain a Category 5 hurricane.  It will likely fluctuate in strength, and when it makes the turn to the north it will likely weaken slightly.

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The GFS model has been consistent and taking this farther east track, which I favor right now:

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This 901 central pressure means, 901 mb (millibars).  901 mb = 26.61″. This is incredibly low pressure.  I put the track to just east of Miami and staying just barely over the water with the best chance for landfall extending from the Georgia coast through the Carolinas and as a Major Hurricane.

Where will the north turn happen? On this map above, valid at 2 PM eastern time, 1 PM central time Saturday, the turn is just happening.  If it waits even six to 12 more hours, then the track from the National Hurricane Center would verify. If it turns just six hours earlier, then it would track farther off shore.  This north turn is of extreme importance to how impacting this will be in Florida and which locations will experience the worst of this Major Hurricane.  Today’s model runs will be closing in on where this turn will occur. The European and Canadian models have trended to where this GFS model is showing now.

Kansas City weather:

It dropped into the upper 40s this morning. Our weather couldn’t be much calmer, so we will continue to monitor this hurricane. Expect a high of 71 degrees today, nearly perfect. It will be raining in Boston today, but likely drying out for the NFL season opener as the Chiefs take on the Super Bowl Champion Patriots tomorrow night.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

 

175 mph Winds In The Category 5 Hurricane Irma Threatens Florida

Good morning bloggers,

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Major Hurricane Irma has become a category 5 storm today on the Saffir-Simpson scale:

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Irma has reached the top level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Irma is taking the more favored southern track, a track that was not even on any of the spaghetti plots from just two days ago. It was the track I was forecasting as the most likely one to take, but we are still wondering when the turn to the north will occur:

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The models are now varying from the Canadian model that takes Irma into the Gulf of Mexico, to the GFS that now takes it to near Miami and up the east coast of Florida to Georgia and South Carolina. The European Model now takes the middle path and goes right up the heart of Florida blasting Key West with way too powerful of a storm for that area to handle.

Irma has now reached that category 5 level with the 175 mph winds. It is forecast to strengthen further with the pressure dropping to ridiculously low levels.  The pressure is forecast to drop to 26.37″ or 893 mb by the GFS model on Saturday. This would likely be an even stronger Category 5 Hurricane at this point.  Some of the other models have the pressures even lower.

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Let’s see how the models trend today. Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Let us know if you have any questions or comments. Our discussion has been taking place over on Weather2020.com.

Gary

Pattern Supports Farther South Track Of Irma

Good morning bloggers,

Happy Labor Day!  We have a strong cold early September cold front that is on the move and tracking across the plains states on this holiday.  And, Hurricane Irma continues to throw tropical weather forecasters for a loop, as Irma is now going out of previous forecast fans.  As we discussed late last week, Irma may be just slow enough to be left behind by that big eastern trough and end up south of most forecast tracks. This is now becoming more likely with the trend that developed on the models overnight. We will discuss this and the overall weather pattern in today’s blog entry.

First of all, thank you for sharing in this weather experience, the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Weather Pattern Hypothesis.  On the Weather2020 site I am updating the video this morning as we track this storm and the weather pattern and you can click on the blog to join in the conversation and let us know what you think or if you have any questions.

Now, let’s begin this discussion today with a look at the very early morning satellite picture, a visible picture taken from Weathertap.com. We can see the very well organized hurricane Irma. Irma is a category 3 storm with 120 mph winds this morning. Irma continues its west southwest track this morning:

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The forecast tracks of Hurricane Irma presented by the computer models have been coming in all over the place from threatening New York City to being modeled to hit South Carolina as of yesterday. But, the trend is for it to be farther south with some confidence beginning to grow in this direction:

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The farther south track should have been expected based on the the big eastern trough lifting out. Here is a look at that big trough forecast to be swinging through New England as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the New England Patriots on Thursday night. A cold front will be moving through the northeast and some rain is likely, but it may just end in time for the game. We will have to look closer into that timing in the next few days.  The trough causing this storm is right on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis schedule.  If Hurricane Irma were just one or two days faster it would have been picked up by this trough and ejected out harmlessly over the Atlantic Ocean, but it is not one or two days faster. It is a bit slower and still moving west southwest and this is why Irma is now forecast to go out of all of those other forecast fans that were put out there the past few days.

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Irma is far enough south where there will literally be no influence from the westerly belt and this deep eastern trough.  Look at what is forecast to happen to the upper level flow by Sunday:

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The upper low near California is actually leftover from what used to be Tropical Storm Lidia.  That type of system would have produced 10 to 15 inches of rain if it were east of the Rocky Mountains, but because the Pacific Ocean current moves south from the Gulf of Alaska, the water is colder and thus the lower levels of the atmosphere are much more stable. A few showers and thunderstorms did affect Southern California yesterday, but now that system is offshore.  Off to the east of the Rocky Mountains, the warm Gulf of Mexico provides the fuel necessary for what happened in Houston and the wettest hurricane producing rains ever recorded ended up happening with Major Hurricane Harvey becoming a likely $150 Billion disaster.  Hurricane Irma is now caught in the flow with very little steering currents with that eastern trough lifting out and moving off the east coast. Irma will likely continue on this southern track, but that weak upper level cyclonic circulation over Tennessee and the overall pattern should be just strong enough to lift Hurricane Irma north into Florida, but just like Harvey, Irma may slow down significantly. This could be another massive rain event that would unfold over parts of the southeastern United States.

The overnight GFS model is actually, shockingly, in agreement with the European Model and the Canadian Model in tracking Hurricane Irma to near Cuba by this weekend. A very strong early September high pressure area will be in place over the Great Lakes States as you can see on this surface forecast below:

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On this next map you can see that overnight version of the GEFS spaghetti plots. This is already so very different from yesterday:

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Here is another spaghetti plot showing that there is even one model that takes the remnants of Irma to just east of Kansas City:

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The track will likely take this southern route. Why? Because that eastern trough is leaving it behind and with no strong steering currents, this system will continue its western track, then slow down, and then finally turn north.  Florida is now becoming the main target. Just yesterday, Florida should certainly been on alert, but this should have been emphasized as a strong probability. Maybe the local meteorologists in Florida did strongly suggest this southern track. I am not sure, but right now I am sure they are all over it.

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Have a great Labor Day. The cold front is on the move. It will likely move through KC dry as we are having another rather dry first half of a month. The new weather pattern will set up in the next five to six weeks. We will discuss this evolution soon. I am so ready for something new, and it will be a unique pattern that has never happened before. What will it bring? 20″ of snow this winter? Can you even imagine that? That would actually seem like a lot after the past two almost snowless winters.

Gary