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Thunderstorms blast Kansas City this morning, more on the way!

Good morning bloggers,

Take a look at this hail stone, one of many, that hit parts of the KC metro area this morning. The risk of severe weather will be increasing this evening.

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Thunderstorms are moving across the metro area this morning.  There will be a break, and then more are on the way tonight.  We are in the Thanksgiving weekend part of the cycling pattern. This storm is right on schedule according to the LRC.

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This is a complex of thunderstorms moving across before noon today. Then there will be a break. We will update you on the evening risk by early this afternoon.

Gary

Severe Weather Outbreak May Happen Tuesday…Update

Good morning bloggers,

MONDAY PM UPDATE:

The new data is in and we are in for several rounds of thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday with all forms of severe weather possible.  So, lets go through this.

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS: There is a moderate risk across central Kansas with an enhanced slight risk on the Kansas side and a slight risk elsewhere.  A moderate risk issued on day 2 means a 60% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.  An enhanced slight risk means 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.  There are two periods of thunderstorms we need to keep an eye on.

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TUESDAY MORNING: This is the first round we need to keep an eye on.  These will be generated by a warm front sitting to our southwest.  These thunderstorms would bring very heavy rain, frequent lightning and large hail.  There is also a chance of damaging winds.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The morning thunderstorms head southeast into southern Missouri, while the main show starts forming in central Kansas near the triple point.  Those thunderstorms have the best chance to be tornadic supercells as initially there will be less thunderstorms.  Then after 1-2 hours the thunderstorms will increase and begin to form into lines and clusters with a few supercells.  These will still have the potential to bring all forms of severe weather.

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TUESDAY EVENING: The activity that forms in central Kansas will have evolved and a line will be possible.  This could be a bow echo.  So, you can see damaging winds and large hail with the chance of an embedded tornado.  We will have to see how unstable the environment is by the time they reach here.  This could depend on the amount of morning activity.

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TUESDAY NIGHT: This model has us getting pounded with thunderstorms.  These could be just heavy rain or a full blown bow echo.

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Needless to say, Tuesday is going to be an active day with several chance of thunderstorms.   Also, Wednesday afternoon there is a chance for scattered severe thunderstorms as a leftover triple point lingers in the area.  So, keep an eye to the sky, download the storm shield app and/or be close to a weather radio and stay tune to 41 Action News and we’ll keep you advised.

Jeff Penner

 

 

hailOne of our storm chasers, Carl Hobi, from our KSHB Storm Chase Team, got pounded by this hail. He said that his car did not do very well in this hailstorm.  This happened on his chase out to central Kansas yesterday.  The severe weather risk is going to increase substantially on Tuesday as a strong storm comes out of the southwestern United States. There are still many uncertainties to this storm system and our weather team is analyzing the data closely.

There is a chance of thunderstorms early on Tuesday, but it is the evening hours and possibly into the overnight hours that has our biggest concern.

Here is the day 2 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

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There is a large risk area, and Kansas City is in it.  Let’s all take this risk very seriously, and begin planning now with your family, and practice your safety plan.

Gary

An active few days ahead

A lot to talk about as we go into Sunday and then Tuesday. Instead of typing it all out, a picture is worth a thousand words… here is a video blog!

Calming Down for a Few Days

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The second round of rain with this storm moved through last night as a disturbance rotated around the main upper low.  I was a bit surprised that there were no thunderstorms.  The system is now lifting north and becoming part of the main upper low.  We will be on the south side of this system today and Thursday.  Today, the rain is over, but we will see lots of cumulus and stratocumulus clouds with highs in the 60s.  There is a chance for a few showers Thursday, we will talk about that below.

The main upper low is in western Nebraska with the disturbance near Omaha.  These will coming together later today and the upper low will reform in central Nebraska.  This upper low moved into Colorado last Thursday!  It brought 2″-5″ rains to much of the Plains, which has been mostly good news for the Hard Red winter wheat crop.  Our area has seen .50″ to 1.50″ of rain when you add up the rain from Monday and last night.

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THURSDAY: The main system will be on the move into the Great Lakes with our area on the back side of the system.  We may see a few showers, with a trace-.15″ possible.  Then, the storm is over and we have some great Spring weather for Friday and Saturday.  Sunday still looks good, but the pattern is about to get active and there is a chance of thunderstorms, possibly severe,  by Sunday or Monday.

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The last week of April into early May has the potential to get rather active as a blocking pattern forms at high latitudes.  An upper high will be forming over Greenland with a second high in western Canada.  In between there will be a large upper low north of New England that extends northwest to the North Pole.  This is a blocked pattern as those features will move slowly and the high in Greenland will drift west.  This high may combine with the high in western Canada, which extends the life of the block.  So, why is this important for our weather?

The main jet stream will get forced south into the USA and get energized.  It gets energized as it interacts with hotter air at low latitudes.  This means there will be a series of storm systems moving across the USA.  This time of year when you have more energetic storm systems you have the chance for severe weather and flooding.  The middle and western part of the USA will be targeted.  The forecast will have to be taken one day at a time as the timing and track of the systems will be hard more than a day or two in advance.  The timing is critical as this will determine where the best severe threats will be.  Also, we may have some colder days as the blocking pattern forces colder air south.  It is going to be an interesting few weeks.

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Have a great day and weekend.

Jeff

Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight

Good Tuesday bloggers,

A round of rain and thunderstorms is likely tonight as a disturbance rotates around the main storm that is still sitting in Colorado.  It has been there since Friday.  After this disturbance moves by it will pull the upper low east and this system will begin to move.  We may see a shower Thursday, but we are in for some great weather into the weekend after this system moves on.

As of Tuesday afternoon there are areas of showers and thunderstorms from western Kansas to the Texas panhandle.  This is the developing area of rain that is headed in.  There is an area of showers to our southwest.  This may try to come in this evening, but does not look like much at this time.

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130 AM WEDNESDAY: Areas of rain and thunderstorms will be moving through.  Some of the heavier thunderstorms may contain small hail.  Otherwise, we should see some more beneficial rain.  The heaviest appears it will be from our area to the west.

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730 AM WEDNESDAY: The last of the showers and thunderstorms will be moving through, so it looks like a wet morning rush hour.  The afternoon will be mostly dry with lots of clouds and highs in the 60s.  An isolated shower is possible.

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RAINFALL FORECAST:  This is from our RPM model.  It may be a bit overdone, but if this really gets going and there are numerous thunderstorms, then these amounts can easily occur.  Now, that being said, most locations should receive .25″ to 1″.  Some locations will see 1″-2″.  It just depends on how the thunderstorms set up.  The most likely areas to see the least rain will be east of KC.

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Have a great night and lets hope you get a good downpour on your yard or farm.

Jeff

One Round of Rain Down, One More to Go

Good Monday bloggers,

Finally, we have seen widespread rain with amounts .10″ to .80″.  The heaviest amounts were from I-35 to the west.  Tonight will be dry and partly to mostly cloudy.  This storm is not done with us as a new disturbance will be tracking in from the southwest as it rotates around the main storm system.  This is timed for tomorrow night and early Wednesday.  Let’s go through the forecast.

A cold front is approaching, but it is weakening as it moves east.  It will stall near KC tonight and Tuesday as it waits for the next wave on Tuesday night.  After the wave moves by the front will move through.  This front is very weak and it will be a bit cooler Wednesday and Thursday before temps rise to near 80° this weekend.

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7 AM TUESDAY: It will be a dry morning rush hour with areas of clouds.  Temperatures will be in the low 50s.

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6 PM TUESDAY: The clouds will be thickening from south to north and there may be a few showers and thunderstorms.  Otherwise, most of Tuesday will be dry with highs around 70°.

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WEDNESDAY 4 AM: The next disturbance will be moving northeast across the area.  It will have a nice ball of rain and a few thunderstorms associated with it.  This is from the 18z NAM.  This model has the heaviest rain just west of KC, but all areas do receive some nice rain.  Now, that being said, the exact location of the heaviest rain is not set in stone.  The rain threat will end during the morning on Wednesday.

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ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST: Most locations will see a new .25″ to 1″.  There will be an area of an additional .50″ to 2″.  This area depends on where the main rain ball tracks.

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So, when this storm is said and done most locations will see around .50″ to 1.50″.  This is a nice rain and it is looking like it will be active next week.  We should be able to wipe out the 2016 rainfall deficit by the end of this month, if not sooner.

Have a great night and week ahead.

Jeff

Rain Creeping This Way

Good Sunday bloggers,

There has been a tremendous amount of rain in the western Plains.  In some locations 2-3 months worth of rainfall has fallen during the previous 48 hours.  This storm is heading this way, but like so many storm systems this year it is weakening as it approaches.There are 5″-8″ estimated amounts from Dodge City to Hays.  This is great news for the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop and for a big downgrade of the increasing moderate drought.  This rain is slowly moving east, but weakening with time.

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Here is the forecast through Monday for the chance of rain.

SUNDAY 845 PM: We may see a few showers, mostly on the Kansas side between 3 PM and 9 PM.  Otherwise, it will be a nice day with highs in the 70s along with periods of clouds.

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MONDAY 630 AM: The main rain approaches and it will likely be a wet morning rush hour.

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MONDAY 1230 PM: The rain is moving east, but it is showery and not as heavy as it was in western Kansas.  So, it looks like a wet Monday lunch.

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MONDAY 5 PM: The rain is moving off.  This is good news for the big Seven Days walk at the JCC.

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RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-WEDNESDAY: There is a good chance of rain tonight and Monday.  Then, the remnants of the main system arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday with a new chance of rain.  When you add it all up, we should see around 1.00″  of rain in KC with .50″-.75″ east of I-35 and 1.50″-2.50″ from Lawrence westward.  The amounts from the state line east will be higher if the rain later tonight and Monday maintains more strength for a longer time.  The chance of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday with the leftover main system is not set in stone.

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Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

Heavy Rain to the West

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have had some great weather, however we could use some rain as we are about 2.50″ of rain below average for the year.  This deficit is not due to a lack of wet storm systems in the region.  Last weekend we saw 1″-3″ of rain occur 100 miles to the south.  Now, this weekend we are seeing a very heavy rain event in a typically arid location where a moderate drought is/was growing.  There are even small severe drought pockets forming.  Our area is seeing the moderate drought grow as well.

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However, since Friday evening, the western Plains have been hammered by incredible rain amounts.  This drought is going to have a big downgrade.  There have been some pockets where 5″-8″ of rain has fallen!  This is likely good news for the winter wheat crop and good news for the drought.  Yes, the rain has come down hard and heavy, but much will soak in.  Isn’t better than .05″ over 2 days?

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This storm is heading this way, but the rain will likely weaken as it approaches the state line.  So, once again we will see the minimal from a large and wet storm. The main rain chance is Monday, but on Wednesday what is left of the main storm will move through and this could bring additional rainfall.  Let’s hope this all adds up to at least an inch of rain.

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If the drought continues to disappear out west, then it is likely a matter of time before it ends here.  It is a very rare sight to see us in a drought and western Kansas not.  So, let’s see what happens during the next month.

Have a great rest of your weekend.

Jeff

 

Great Spring Weather, But No Rain

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather this week is absolutely spectacular with abundant sunshine, light winds and highs in the 70s (lows in the 40s to 50s).  This is the good news,  but it is getting dry and we need some rain.  Well, there is a storm system that will be moving into the Rockies.  It is going to stall over the weekend as a block in the weather pattern forms.  This storm will greatly benefit much of the Plains, but as you know around here we have basically been getting nothing from everything.  Almost every storm system that has affected the middle part of the USA in 2016 has given our area the minimum.  This next storm is looking like no exception.

Our area is in an increasing area of abnormally dry conditions as we have had just enough moisture to keep soil conditions moist.  This is going to get worse the longer we stay dry through April.  There is a moderate drought over the western Plains where the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop is grown.  This next storm is going to greatly benefit those areas and could make the winter wheat crop, assuming all else is equal.

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FRIDAY: The storm we are tracking will be moving through the Rockies.  We may start to see more clouds as a persistent southeast flow pulls clouds northwest from a weak system tracking from the southern Plains to southeast USA.  The Rockies storm will start to generate some heavy rain and thunderstorms across the western Plains later Friday and it will be around through the weekend as the rain moves from south to north, but not that far east.

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RAINFALL FORECAST FRIDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY: This is kinda ridiculous.  Rainfall amounts will likely reach 2″ to 5″ with some locations seeing 6″ across the western Plains.  This is 1-2 months worth of rainfall and much needed.  The storm will move east and weaken early next week.  The latest data has .10″ to .50″ for our region.  There is still a chance the storm holds together a  bit longer, so we could still end up with .50″ to 1″.

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If the storm does make it here, it will likely take until Monday, so we have some great Spring weather through the weekend.  We will just have a few more clouds over the weekend.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

Freeze Warning and Dry Weather

Good Monday bloggers,

Well, we missed another good rain event as 1″-3″ occurred across southern Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  We saw trace to .10″  amounts and that fell Sunday morning.  We now have a cool air mass headed south and tonight with a clear sky, light wind and dry air, temperatures will tank to the upper 20s and low 30s.  Northern Missouri may see lows 23-25.  It was in the low 20s there on Saturday morning.  Is this the last freeze?  I would say most likely, but there is a slight chance in about two weeks.

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We are going to now be dry through at least Saturday or Sunday with highs returning to the 70s by Thursday.  So, the good news is that we are in store for some great weather.  The bad news is that we need rain.  Moderate drought conditions are spreading across Kansas.  Our area is in an increasing area of abnormally dry.  This will worsen quickly if we do not see rain.  The Hard Red Winter Wheat areas of western Kansas really need some rain even though some locations saw .10-1″ the last 24 hours.

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We are tracking a storm system for the end of the week into the weekend and early next week.  This is going to be a slow mover with copious moisture.  There is the potential for a drought stopping, winter wheat crop making rain, from this storm system.  This storm will drop into the Rockies this weekend.  It will be perfectly placed to inundate the western Plains.  It will move east early next week and, bringing our area rain, but  not as much as it weakens.

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RAINFALL FORECAST  SATURDAY-THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK: Wow!  This is not data error.  Southwest Kansas to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles could see 5″-10″ of rain.  That would be an extremely rare event.  Is it true?  Well, lets say it is possible, but still 5-7 days away.  So, it will change.  I would say, if the upper level set up remains fairly consistent, at least 1″-4″ of rain are possible .  Our area could see more or  less as well, depending on how this storm moves out into the Plains.  Let’s hope we receive at least 1″ of rain.

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Have a great week and enjoy the nice weather.

Jeff