Good late evening or early morning bloggers,
Wow, could October 7th have been the first day of LRC 2015-2016? I believe it very well may have been. And, suddenly something new is happening. I am not so sure it is exciting for Kansas City, but hang on as if it is day one, then we have six to seven more weeks of weather to experience before you jump to conclusions on what it may mean for the winter.
Our Kansas City Royals take on and host the Houston Astro’s Thursday night with a scheduled 6:37 PM first pitch. Since the pattern is likely new, this will mean something very different from last year is going to happen. This makes this forecast more difficult than usual. However, the first data that came out before my 10 PM newscast has no rain at all until after the game. That would certainly make my life easier.
The cold front will likely be near Kansas City right around first pitch. So, we can’t rule out a brief shower or thunderstorm, but I believe we can rule in that it would likely be brief. We will put in that 30% chance and at this moment I don’t think the chance is higher than this. What does a 30% chance of rain mean? It means that 7 out of 10 times I say there is a 30% chance of rain, then it will not rain in those seven times, but three times it will. So, I lean towards the no rain for the game at the moment. Now, by 2:30 AM the main disturbance will come through and we may have a band or rain, with a few thunderstorms possible as the cooler air moves in.
Our latest in-house computer model shows this forecast for the first inning. That is a rain shower that lasted around 20 minutes, and then the sky cleared.
Here is the forecast for the game:
A cold front will move through with the wind shifting to the northwest. There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and if we do get one I am expecting it to just blow through. Have a great night and early morning. And, GO ROYALS! Let’s beat the Astros in game 1! I will be on Sports Radio 810 AM at 7:50 AM or so with the updated forecast, and our weather team will be out live at the stadium and in studio tracking the new data. Did you meet our new weather team member, Nicole Phillips? Here is a goofy picture of us:
We are the official meteorologists of the Kansas City Royals!
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Good late evening or early morning bloggers,
I sure hope you are all doing well. I have been blogging more over on the Weather2020.com site with the new LRC now setting up. And, as many of you likely know, I am mourning the loss of my wonderful dog Stormy The Weather Dog. She died last Friday at nearly 15 years old. Life was getting very difficult for her, and we made the tough decision to put her down. It is such a loss and the pack has changed significantly. Stormy was really the pack leader. Breezy now seems to look to Sunny, and Sunny at 6 months old relies on Breezy. They are getting along well. I would like to thank everyone so much for the outpouring of support from the community. My facebook fanpage received reached over 500,000 people. That is overwhelming, and I read through most of the comments. We will miss Stormy tremendously. I didn’t think I was going to get another weather dog, but Sunny came into our lives and she is going to be making her first school visit at the end of next week.
Now, will The Kansas City Royals be playing at the end of next week, and what will the weather be like. The weather pattern is in massive transition now, and if you want to keep up with this fascinating weather pattern, then you can join the Weather2020 blog for just $19.99 a year. We are sharing breakthrough technology with you and this year’s pattern is just now evolving. Many of you have followed this for years and I know that there is an appreciation for what we are trying to do. We are attempting to share this with the world, and we have every reason to think that 2016 is going to finally be the year that we take this out of the underground.
Okay, now, what is happening in our weather pattern? Let’s begin with the gorgeous sunset over the stadium complex on Tuesday evening:
These are altocumulus clouds and they were finally clearing and a nice warming trend continues. There is no sign of our first freeze yet:
The average date for the first freeze is now passing by across northwestern Missouri. For Topeka to St. Joseph, and east to Chillicothe, the average first freeze comes in the next two weeks, and then for Kansas City it arrives later in October. As I said, there is no sign at all at this point, but there are major changes, as I have been describing as massive changes in the weather pattern. According to my theory, the weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th every year, and every year’s pattern is unique. El Niño is strengthening and becoming quite powerful. This could be one of the strongest, if not the strongest El Niño’s ever recorded. This is just one piece of the LRC atmospheric puzzle. So, hang on for the ride, we will know what this pattern will likely mean in a few weeks, but it’s way too early right now.
There is an upper low getting lost over northern Mexico in the next couple of days, and our chance of rain will be coming from the dip in the air flow over South Dakota. As this swings by a cold front will move through, and it is timed for Thursday evening. The conditions will become favorable for some thunderstorms to form, and I have concerns as it is timed for about the time the Royals game will be played. When I was writing this Houston was leading the Yankees, so I am not sure who we are playing yet, but by the time you read this we will likely know. Here is the 6:50 PM surface forecast on Thursday evening. This would be a nightmare for us, as we are the official meteorologists for the Kansas City Royals. I will be up on Crown Vision and we have to record the forecast 3 hours before the game. Of the 81 home games this year, we had around three bad moments up there where the weather changed and they played our weather forecast. 78 out of 81 is not bad, but I don’t want to be wrong again. In this scenario it would be tough. Now, if there is a rain delay at the beginning of the game, it would allow us to potentially get the Royals an update before the game starts. We may be in a tough situation.
Now, this isn’t etched in stone, and the timing of the front and the chance of rain and thunderstorms are still big questions that we should be able to answer better by Wednesday night and Thursday. Our computer model is simulating a thunderstorm over the K at 8 PM Thursday:
Here is our forecast for Thursday evening, hoping that we can update this and reduce that chance as we get closer.
After Thursday, take a look at what happens to the pattern:
The jet stream is forecast to retreat to the north by early next week. This will create great conditions for a late season warm spell. The northern Mexico upper low will have drifted off the west coast, and that west to east jet stream will create some downsloping and a chance of some record breaking warm weather early next week.
Have a great Wednesday and we will update you as the new data comes in.
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Good Monday bloggers,
We are in a thick overcast today with low clouds coming from the east and mid/high clouds coming in from the southwest. So, it will be hard to see much sun today. We will struggle to the low 60s for highs. Now what about rain today? We have had some mist, but nothing measurable. There is an area of sprinkles and light showers in central Kansas. They are trying to head this way, but the area will weaken as it gets here and some of the rain is not reaching the ground. That being said, if you experience a sprinkle today, do not be surprised.
We expect the sun to return tomorrow afternoon, so highs should make the low 70s. If the clouds hang on longer or do not clear at all, then highs will stay in the 60s. Wednesday should see more sun and a temperature jump to the mid and upper 70s. Then, we must watch the Thursday forecast closely as rain chances increase and Game 1 will be played at the “K.”
UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY: There will be a system to the south, supplying moisture and a system to the north supplying a weak cold front. These two features will combine to bring areas of showers and thunderstorms across the Plains and Midwest. These are weak systems and our region is in between the two, no mans land. So, this means we do not expect a major rain event.
THURSDAY: Here is a look at the set up for Thursday. Not only will the systems be weak and us in no mans land, it looks like after 4-5 PM the front and rain chances will push southeast of KC. So, if the game is at night then there should be no chance of rain. If the game starts in the afternoon, then there could be a brief delay. This is still 3-4 days away and we will be able to time it out better as we get closer.
Have a great day and Let’s Go Royals, clap clap clap clap clap!
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One of those days where location is key. We’ve seen sunshine on the Kansas side of the area, clouds on the Missouri side.
When it comes to temperatures, you can notice a bit of a difference.
The overall setup across the lower 48 looks like this.
The atmosphere hasn’t moved a whole lot, thanks to things like Joaquin blocking up the overall flow. However, that is going to change now going through the next few days. Before I get to that, let’s talk Joaquin.
As of 5p, it currently sits as a category 2 hurricane.
It remains over the Atlantic and will continue to move off to the Northeast. However, the hurricane has helped pump moisture into the Carolinas. And wow, have they seen some rainfall.
Check out the radar loop and watch the water hose just spray the SE coast. This is 12 hours (!) of radar.
Amazing. Flooding has been a huge issue, with water rescues & reports of people trapped in their vehicles. Always remember: turn around, don’t drown.
Back here at home, I think we have a chance for rain on Thursday, especially after about 2p. Those chances will linger through Friday morning.
Obviously with the Royals starting their playoff run at home on Thursday, we hope the rain doesn’t spoil things (like it did last year, remember that?!).
The temperatures will warm this week, finally get us back above the average.
October tends to be a “squirrelly” month, with very warm days and very cool days possible as the season changes and real fall settles in.
Hope you all have had a nice weekend,
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Good Saturday bloggers,
The weather pattern has been rather odd this week with a storm system stuck in the western USA and another in the southeast USA. We have been stuck in between the two systems in a ridge. So, for us this has meant some great weather day after day. The next two days the pattern will begin to shift a bit. Lower clouds from the eastern system will be drifting west into our area, while the system to the west stays out there. We will have to watch the western system as it will finally head east by the end of the week and could bring some rain, hopefully not affecting the Royals playoff game. We will know more in a few days.
There was some concern that the system in the southeast USA would grab Joaquin and fling him back to the east coast. However, it was not strong enough and he is headed out into the Atlantic. He will affect Bermuda, but at least he will be weakening to a Cat 2 then 1.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: We will be in for more beautiful weather as we remain sandwiched in between a system to the west and the one to the east. Oddly enough, we will be affected by the eastern system first as low clouds will be streaming west.
SUNDAY: The low clouds will be heading in from the east. The clouds on Sunday will be thickest to east. We will have highs in the mid 60s if the clouds are thinner and more scattered. If the clouds end up thicker and more widespread then tomorrow’s highs may struggle to 60°. No rain is expected.
MONDAY: If the clouds do not become widespread Sunday, they will tomorrow night and Monday. Since the clouds will be widespread tomorrow night lows will be in the 50s, instead of 40s as the clouds will act like a blanket and hold in the days warmth. Highs Monday will warm to the 60s despite the clouds as the humidity will be higher and some sun may break through during the afternoon. But, we will have to watch this as well. If the clouds hang tough in a thick state, then highs Monday will struggle to 60°.
The system to the west will head east by the end of the week as the weather pattern straightens out. The system will be in a weakening phase, but could bring some rain on Thursday and affect Game 1 of the play offs.
Before we get to the Royals game there are some great events this weekend and the weather looks great.
The Pink Laundry run takes place in Lee’s Summit and is for a great cause. This run helps raise money for families dealing with cancer that run up huge bills.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful fall weather.
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We’ll start with the big weather talker right now: Hurricane Joaquin. Earlier this afternoon, the NHC upgraded the storm to category 4 strength, thanks to sustained wind speeds of 130mph.
There is still a fair amount of debate on where the center of the storm will go. More of the models are leaning toward the solution the Euro (and the Euro alone) gave yesterday: more out to sea, not making landfall. Here is the latest spaghetti plot of computer forecast simulations.
As I mentioned yesterday, it’s very dependent on what “highway” Joaquin jumps on. If it gets caught up in the jetsteam near the coast, it’ll be pulled inland. However, if it gets caught up by the large area of high pressure over the Atlantic, then it will be more out to sea.
Now with that all said, the much more important takeaway here is not where or if the hurricane makes landfall. But more so about the amount of moisture this storm will help pull toward the East coast. Using the European model as reference, even with the storm staying out over the sea, a river of moisture will be drawn into the middle East coast.
Forecast models (both Euro & GFS) continue to indicate buckets of water being tossed at the Carolinas.
I looked at the raw Euro output, and it claims an area of over 25″ of water still possible. Amazing.
The GFS has been trending toward the Euro’s solution over the last 24 hours. In addition to taking more of a track out over the sea, it picks up on the large amounts of rainfall that may occur.
Another aspect will be the intensity of this storm while in the sea. Wave heights could be close to 50 feet!
Once more, all of this is highly subject to change. The storm is still at the early stage of it’s movement, all while being a powerhouse. Just look at this loop of the storm from today; it developed an eye wall this morning.
Okay, so how in the world does this impact our weather? Well, we’re not going to get copious amount of rainfall nor super strong wind. However, Joaquin continues to hold up the check out line, so to speak. This means systems cannot move across the USA as they usually do. We’re a little blocked up.
What this means for us: we’ll be status quo for a few more days. Sunshine & cool temps, no rain either.
Quickly looking back on September, it was a pretty interesting month.
What a change from the first week to the last week. And how about that rainfall? 75% of the rain that fell for the month, fell on one day! It was almost as much as we’re supposed to get for the entire month.
We will continue to track Joaquin and let you know if anything changes here on the homefront.
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What a morning! Fall doing its best to settle into the area, just as we get set to turn the calendar over to October. We had lows in the 40s this morning!
With the sunshine, we managed to climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon (as of 4:30p).
The reason for the cool snap? We’re pulling in some fresh, cool air from the Northeast.
A lot of attention and focus is going toward the East coast these days, thanks to hurricane Joaquin. It is up to a category 1 storm with sustained wind speeds of 85mph.
The overall track of this system will play a role in our weather moving forward, but it depends on where exactly this storm goes. The hurricane will be driven by the steering wind over the Western Atlantic…
Looking over the latest computer guidance, there is a lot of clustering, suggesting it will make landfall in the Carolinas and on the East side of Virginia.
Now, that said, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center places the center of the storm more to the East. While some are scratching their heads over this, it should be noted that the latest Euro model claims the storm may not even make direct landfall; it’s pulled out more into the ocean. Needless to say, there are still a lot of details to be hashed out and the storm still has a lot of time to develop and change.
If it *does* make landfall, the amount of rain could be substantial. Model output is pretty impressive… first up is the GFS, notice the areas of 8-12″ of rainfall.
This is what the Euro is suggesting, which is interesting considering the overall track is supposed to be more over the ocean. A bullseye of 16-20″ of rain (!) over the Carolinas.
As for us, we will continue to be caught between two storm systems, thus keeping us pretty quiet (and cool).
Part of this may be due to Joaquin blocking up the atmosphere, preventing storm systems to move across the US. The low over Colorado will likely stay stuck there for the weekend, not impacting us. And since the low pressure area over SE won’t budge much, we’ll keep the weak high pressure area over top of us. Meaning: we’ll stay a little stale for a few days in terms of active weather. I don’t think many will complain…
Highs will likely stay below average by about 6-8 degrees over the next handful of days.
Our lows will also be on the cooler side as well. But there are some indications that we will warm back up into the 70s going into the first part of next week. No mistake about it, Fall is trying to snuggle in for the near future. You may want to keep the long sleeves and a jacket handy!
Here’s to a great evening,
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Good Tuesday bloggers,
The cold front we have been talking about moved through this morning. The rest of today it will be mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. The showers from earlier have fallen apart.
TUESDAY MORNING: The band of clouds will sag south across the area, but very little, if any, rain will occur. Temperatures will stay mostly in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: The sky will clear tonight and this will lead to good radiational cooling. The heat of the day will be able to escape and lows will drop to the 40s. The average low is around 50°, so we are due for more nights like this.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: It is going to be a beautiful day with highs in the 60s, abundant sunshine and a northeast wind of 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: There are four weather features to see on this map. First, the clouds in the western USA are a gathering storm system that may bring us a cloudy and wet weekend. Right now we have just a 20% chance of rain, but that could change fast. We will know more in a few days. Second, are the persistent, cool northeast winds from eastern Canada. This will keep our fall air mass in place for several days. Third, is the developing storm system in the eastern USA with increasing rain and thunderstorms. Fourth, is tropical storm Joaquin east of the Bahamas. This system + the eastern storm system will combine to bring tremendous rain to the east coast.
LATEST FORECAST TRACK ON JOAQUIN: It looks like he will stay off shore, but his moisture will get flung northwest. Also, this is not set in stone and Joaquin could actually move in from the east. Either way, a ton of rain is headed to the big east coast cities. Also, it looks like Joaquin may stay at tropical storm status and not become too strong. Although, I could see him become a category 1.
RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY: Look at this rain! Wow, this may cause some major travel issues as this will be a many day event.
Have a great day.
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Good Monday night bloggers,
First, lets take a look at the weather in Green Bay. The Chiefs have a huge MNF game tonight. They really need a win. It looks like there are going to be showers in the area as a cold front approaches. Maybe this will help the Chiefs.
If you are tired of the summer feel to the air, you are about to get your wish. Highs today were in the 80s and it is going to be awhile before we can say that. There is a chance for a few days in the 80s next week.
NOON TUESDAY: Lows will be in the 60s Tuesday which is warmer than we have been the last several days. However, with the cold front and clouds and chance of showers, we will struggle to 70 by noon and possibly falling or staying in the 60s all day as the northeast winds pick up. This data has any morning rain in northern MO falling apart. However, there is a 20-30% chance of a few showers during the day as the front and showers sag south. If it rains it will be very hard to get out of the 60s.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: The sky will clear with a light northeast wind as the cooler air continues to filter in. This will set up some pretty good radiational cooling conditions, so lows will drop into the low 40s. It will for sure feel like fall.
THURSDAY: The flow from the surface will literally come from eastern Canada and southern Hudson Bay. This will persist for several days into the weekend, keeping us firmly entrenched in a fall air mass with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The question is will a system from the Rockies make it far enough east to bring rain to our area with the low level easterly flow. If this happens we will have highs in the 50s, maybe 40s! The chance of this is low, but looks like a certainty for the western Plains Thursday through Saturday. We will watch this closely the next few days.
Have a great night and go Chiefs and Royals!
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Good Sunday night bloggers,
The weather tonight could not be better for viewing the eclipse.
The current clouds will dissipate making way for great eclipse viewing weather. It starts at 7:11 PM as the moon is rising. It peaks at 9:47 PM as the moon rises higher and will end about 11:45 PM. It will be easy to see and find. Also, since it is at a reasonable time, the kids can enjoy it. Also, you do not need any protective eye gear, that is for a solar eclipse. Temperatures will be in the 60s, so comfortable as well. The weather, Sun, Earth and Moon are all lining up well tonight.
Quick lesson: The Sun, Earth and Moon are lined up and the Earth’s shadow is cast upon the Moon. The Moon will look dark reddish as the red wavelengths are the only light wavelengths to make it through the Earth’s atmosphere. Also, this is a super moon. That means the Moon is closer than usual, 14% closer, so it will look a bit bigger. Enjoy!
Now to the weather forecast. Monday will feel like summer with highs in the 80s, but a change arrives Tuesday.
MONDAY: Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s, we are going 85° in KC. A cold front will be located across Nebraska and Iowa. There will be a few thunderstorms along the front with highs in the 60s behind the front.
11 AM TUESDAY: This will be the day of change. A cold front will sweep in from the north during the day. There will be showers and a few thunderstorms behind the front moving south, but falling apart at the same time. So, the best chance of rain will be across northern Missouri. Look at 11 AM Tuesday. Areas of northern Missouri will see temperatures in the 50s with north winds and showers. Areas to the south will see temperatures in the 70s, warming to the 80s with more sun as the front will not arrive in those areas until afternoon. KC will be in the 60s to low 70s, then fall to the 60s as northeast winds increase to 10-25 mph.
5 PM TUESDAY: A large high pressure will be over the northern Plains. And, based on the new data this high pressure will dominate the weather through the week bringing a persistent north to northeast wind. This will keep highs all week in the 60s to near 70° with lows in the 40s and 50s. The average high this week is in the low 70s with average lows around 50°. So, these temperatures are not unusual for this time of year. We do not see much rain at this time. There will be a few showers Tuesday and perhaps some rain Friday and Saturday. However, the new data is trending away from rain.
Have a great week and enjoy the eclipse.
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