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Tracking Thunderstorms

Well, thunderstorms are moving this way and they are trying to fall apart, but I do believe they have enough energy to maintain long enough for them to affect most locations today.  There is another chance tonight as well, so lets go through this.

7 AM SUNDAY: There is a main area of thunderstorms west of Topeka and this cluster is moving east and should have enough energy to affect our area with amounts at least around .10″ to 1.00″.  There are some lead, scattered thunderstorms south of KC, moving east as well.

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7 AM SUNDAY: The thunderstorms are moving east at about 30 mph and should arrive in KC by 9-10 AM.  This is the main show, with scattered thunderstorms and showers preceding the main area.

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TONIGHT: The thunderstorms are being caused by an approaching warm front.  This front will still be around tonight, so new thunderstorms will form.  They will be forming near the KC area before they head east. So, we have two chances at some rain before the heat arrives.

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The main threat of thunderstorms for tonight is between 1o PM and 5 AM.  Then, highs will reach the 90s through the week with little chance of rain.  Now, there is a slight rain chance Wednesday morning as a weak front tries to drift in before falling apart.

Jeff

More rain coming Sunday & a sad bit of news

One little breakaway cell from a storm cluster in Nebraska managed to give a little bit of rain to Eastern Kansas today. It wasn’t supposed to make it that far! The atmosphere sure knows how to humble a guy… We have another chance for thunderstorms on Sunday but the problem is: all (and I do mean all) of the forecast models have a different idea of where it will rain. Model-chasers are going to pull their hair out over this one. We discuss the situation in more detail in the video. Also, some sad news on the passing of a true weather icon.

Looking ahead, it is really going to sizzle next week. I hope you’re ready!
-JD

Potential Sunday Thunderstorms

Good Saturday,

12 PM UPDATE:

There is a small cluster of thunderstorms in southeast Nebraska that has a 10-20% chance of moving through 3-5 PM.  It may fall apart before it arrives.  So, keep an eye to the sky.

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We are still waiting for a nice widespread rain as it has been July 13th since our last decent rain event.  Well, we have another chance or two of thunderstorms, Sunday and Monday.  So, lets go through the next couple of days.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Today will be a super Summer Saturday with highs in the 80s and no chance of rain.  The humidity will be in check as well.

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SATURDAY NIGHT (After midnight): A warm front will be approaching from the west and there will likely be clusters of thunderstorms out in central Kansas.  We will still be waiting.

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SUNDAY MORNING: This is where the forecast is tricky.  The thunderstorms should move east and affect us, bringing the rain we need.  However, there is a conflict in the data and so we are at 50-50 they head our way.  If the warm front acts like a real front then thunderstorms should result.  This would be great news as some of the rain would be quite heavy.

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SUNDAY: If the thunderstorms do get their act together, then we would see this reflected in the temperatures.  In rain and cloud areas, Sunday temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s.  So, we will see how this evolves.  The heat and humidity will be lurking behind the warm front with near 100° in Wichita.

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MONDAY: The warm front continues its march north and will be crossing I-70.  So, there is another chance of thunderstorms Monday morning before the heat and humidity flow in.

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Let’s hope we get the rain by Monday, because if we don’t, we will have to wait until next weekend.  There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm Wednesday.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Rain, Rain All Around

Good evening,

The weather pattern through Sunday will feature a northwest flow across the Plains and Midwest.  There will be numerous disturbances embedded in this flow that will be producing clusters of rain and thunderstorms.  The new data is trending towards our area missing most of the rain.  Now, this being said we have to keep rain chances in the forecast these days even if we do not see the widespread event we need, as we may be on the edge of these events or get missed all together or just a get a few thunderstorms with an event.

On Wednesday afternoon you can see disturbances with areas of showers and thunderstorms all over the middle part of the USA.  However, there are no big areas heading this way.

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TONIGHT: A weak front will slip in here and there may be a few thunderstorms overnight, and I mean a few.  Here is the latest HRRR.  It has one thunderstorm at 230 AM east of downtown KC.  This may not be the correct placement, but gives you an idea on how sparse the rain event looks tonight.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY:  This is from the 12z GFS, but the ECMWF and NAM are in pretty decent agreement.  We have the isolated event tonight, and a big event is likely Thursday night, but it will occur over mostly Nebraska to central Kansas.  The northeast edge may clip us Friday.  We still have to watch this set up, but chances are the heaviest will stay west.  There is another chance Saturday night into Sunday as the higher heat and humidity move back in, but this may stay west as well.  This is still not set in stone, but the trend is heading towards us getting missed.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

 

We Need a Drink of Water

Good evening,

The good news is that we are having some great summer weather.  The bad news is that it is drying out and we could use a good drink of water.  Now, this month has been wetter that average, but officially it has not rained measurably since July 13th.

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Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday night, but it is not a sure thing.  Here is the set up.  A cold front will be approaching from the northwest and Wednesday afternoon there will be a a chance of thunderstorms forming along this front in Nebraska.  The flow aloft is from northwest to southeast, so if these thunderstorms can get their act together, they could move in tomorrow night.  The chance of rain is 40-50% at this time tomorrow night.

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THURSDAY-SUNDAY: We will be in a pattern where we will have heat to the west and cooler air to the east as the flow aloft remains from the northwest.  This flow will have many disturbances in it and any one of these could initiate thunderstorms.  So, we have a complex forecast this period as there will be a chance of thunderstorms each day, but there is no guarantee they will all come through our area.  It is hard to track these chances more than 12-24 hours in advance, so we will have to take the forecast one day at a time and hope we see at least one good soaking.  Also, these rains are likely not all day events, but again, timing is tough more than 12-24 hours in advance.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Great Summer Weather

Good evening,

A cold front came through last night and the main thunderstorm activity stayed just southwest of KC.  So, we are left needing rain in some areas, but at least we got rid of the heat and high humidity.  Tuesday and Wednesday are looking great with highs in the 80s.

This is the forecast map for Tuesday, but it holds for Wednesday as well.  Wednesday may see a few more clouds and just a slight rain chance..  High pressure over Iowa is bringing us a more comfortable northeast wind.

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This is the upper level pattern we had last week.  The heat wave creating machine was over the middle of the USA.  Now, we did not have an official heat wave as we did not have three straight days of 95° or higher.  However, the humidity was out of control and this made it feel like a legitimate heat wave.

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This is the pattern we are going to be in this week.  We return to a northwest flow which will put us in the zone of thunderstorm chances, especially Thursday through Saturday.  We will have to take the individual rain chances one day at a time.  Hopefully, we will get at least one good event.

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FRIDAY: This is when we have our next decent rain chance as a stronger disturbance comes in from the northwest and a warm front sets up to our southwest.  We are going 40% chance at this time.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

You can breathe again

After a stuffy and hot few days, we finally get a chance to breathe. Figuratively and literally! Dew point have been hanging around in the mid to upper 70s for days. Those will drop to the low to mid 60s for Monday & Tuesday. Plus, rain chances return starting tonight. But not everyone, everywhere is going to get the rain. We go over the details of what to expect this week. And, a look at how long the break from the heat will last!

Hope you have a great week. Remember, keep checking our TV forecasts for the latest updates.
-JD

Last couple days of the heat for a while

We’ve been stuck in the 90s for a few days, with heat index values doing Olympic-style hurdles over 100°. Needless to say, it’s been humid! Because of the high dew points, the air temperatures never hit 100° in KC. What some failed to realize this week is that with dew points in the mid to upper 70s(and it being late July), there is just not enough time in the day to get us cooking. Moreover, the slightest of cloud cover will reduce any chance there may have been. In the video blog, we dive more into this and why we never hit 100°. Also in the video: we look to make a return to the daily thunderstorm chances next week. Could this month end up in the top 5 wettest Julys of all time? Sit back and take a look!

Try not to sweat too much for the rest of the weekend. And, as always, GO ROYALS!
-JD

The Heat Is On

Good Wednesday,

The Excessive Heat Warning is now rather expansive, but it is mostly due to the humidity and not the heat.  There is so much moisture in the ground due to the wet last three weeks.  The grass, trees, corn and soybeans are evapotranspirating quite a bit, throwing much water into the air.  When, there is a lot of water in the air, it is hard for the air to warm up.  So temperatures are struggling to 95°, but the humidity is making heat indexes 105°-115°..

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WEDNESDAY DEW POINTS: Look at the huge area of dew points around 75° or higher.  This is going to make it hard for us to hit 100° unless we can mix out this thick moisture.   Saturday has the best chance to hit 100° out ahead of a cold front.

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The upper level high is growing over the middle of the USA and will reach its peak size Friday.  The anticyclone will break down over the weekend as a front heads south.  This front may link up with some monsoon moisture early next week, increasing the chance we could see some heavy rain.

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Stay cool.

Jeff

Anticyclone Grows

Good Tuesday,

The upper level high we have been talking about is here and beginning to grow.  Around the edge of the upper level high (anticyclone) you often have clusters of thunderstorms and today is no exception.

There is quite an area of thunderstorms tracking across southern Iowa with some severe weather and flash flooding.  This would have been closer to KC, but the upper high became just a bit too big.  Now, there are thunderstorms as close as Cameron.  This upper high will continue to grow reaching it’s biggest size on Thursday.

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HEAT WARNINGs AND ADVISORIES: The advisories for heat extend from the Canadian border to almost the Gulf coast as the “heat wave creating machine” grows.  So, how long will this last?  Is this the beginning of a long hot and dry stretch?

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SUNDAY: The answer to the above questions is no as the anticyclone will shrink and retreat to the south over the weekend.  This will allow a cold front to slip in by Sunday, which will increase the chance of the thunderstorms.  This front looks to be the first of two or three as we head into August.

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Now, until we get relief, and if you are outside doing any kind of activity, you need to drink plenty of water.  We always say this, but how much water should you drink?  The answer is 16-32 ounces per hour as it is amazing how much water you can lose in weather like this.  Our bodies are 60% water, so it is important to keep yourself hydrated.

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Have a good night and rest of your week.

Jeff