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Summer Heat Is Developing

Good morning bloggers,

Blog Update: We are in the process of combining the Weather2020 blog and the Action Weather blog. This will take another week or two to work out the details, so thank you for your patience. The Weather2020 blog has been a great place for the die-hard weather enthusiasts to share in this weather experience with almost 1500 participants. It was still growing, but in discussions with 41 Action News and our Weather2020 team we have made the best decision to combine the two blogs. This means that the Weather2020 will no longer be a pay blog.  This transition will be completed by the end of the month. So  again, thank you for your patience.  You can comment on Weather2020 now, but we will be opening comments on this blog by the end of the month.

We will be having a Kansas City section, a national section, and a cycling weather pattern section. The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and I will be presenting some incredible findings this year at a conference in two weeks. Two weeks from today many of my colleagues will be coming to Kansas City for the Broadcast conference and I will share much of this research with you at that time.

Let us begin with a comic that someone shared with me last night on Facebook. I love this one:

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National Weather Set-Up:

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A storm is coming into the Pacific northwest and it will track into the northern plains before heading east and intensifying over southern Canada. As this happens a big warming trend will spread across the plains states into the eastern half of the nation.

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 Kansas City:

The warming trend has started and it will last into Monday with temperatures eventually getting into the lower 90s. Incredibly, there is no chance of rain for many more days. The next chance arrives late Tuesday night and that chance is somewhat suspect. A weakening cold front will work its way into the region by Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Take a look at the rainfall forecast for the next seven days:

gfs_apcpn_us_27

Kansas City June Rainfall:

  • Average for the entire month of June:  5.23″
  • Rainfall so far in the first nine days of June:  0.03″

There is no chance of rain through Tuesday in Kansas City. This will get Kansas City through the first 13 days of June with that low 0.o3″ total. There are signs of pretty good chances of thunderstorms in the second half of the month.  For now, it is a big warm up to near or above 90 degrees between now and that next chance of rain.

We made this forecast for June and it is verifying so far.  We are using the cycling pattern as described by the LRC to make these month long forecasts. The May outlook wasn’t perfect, but it verified well. As we move through this month hotter air will be increasing.  We are also forecasting Kansas City’s first 100 degree day in almost four years to happen this summer. There will likely be a few of them.

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The 30th annual Dog-N-Jog is this weekend on Sunday morning. Bring your dog, register, and help out a great cause and organization. The Humane Society of Greater Kansas City is located in Kansas City, KS.  This is a great event for your dog and family.  Come on out and meet Sunny!

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Gary

Another Great Afternoon In KC

Good late afternoon bloggers,

Wow, what a day. Take a look at this picture from over the stadium complex at 5 PM:

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There was barely even one cloud in the sky. I did see one.  The weather pattern will be gradually changing over the next few days as discussed in our previous blog.  We are about to open up comments again and combine both blogs with a Kansas City section, a national storm of the day section, and a cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC section.  This is being tested right now. This will make the Weather2020 blog free, but again it will be a combined blog. You can go to Weather2020 now to comment as we go through this transition.

Gary

A Storm Moves Into The Western States

Good morning bloggers,

As a storm heads into the western states, high pressure is dominating the Great Lakes back into the plains states.  Remember, the wind blows away from high pressure and towards low pressure. A high pressure area is right near the Mississippi River this morning and you can see the wind flow around this system:

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This high pressure area will actually back in over Missouri today, and then it will begin moving away and the temperatures will start warming up big time. It will remain dry through early next week as we wait for the next storm system. Here is a look at the low rainfall total in the first eight days of June in Kansas City:

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Let’s look at the developing pattern. A series of storm systems is moving into the western United States right now with Snow levels lowering to 7,500 feet over the weekend near and just north of Lake Tahoe. We are in the part of the cycling pattern that has produced huge wet storm systems in that region in each cycle. We are currently in the fifth LRC cycle and exactly 59 days ago they had another three feet of snow in Lake Tahoe over a three day storm.  As this storm moves inland it will produce the conditions for a huge warm up with moisture surging in from the Gulf of Mexico.  Here is a surface forecast map that I plotted valid on Sunday evening:

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Let’s see how this sets up. In the mean time, it will be another incredibly nice day in Kansas City as the Royals try to win 3 out of 4 from the Houston Astros. The Royals are only 4 1/2 games out of first place. Sports can be quite fascinating. Don’t give up yet.

Have a great day and thank you for reading the blog today!

Gary

Six More Dry Days

Good morning bloggers,

We will look into the shifting weather pattern in today’s blog entry.  The weather pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC. We are in the same pattern that produced very little snow during the winter, but a adequate rainfall during the spring. Our west, the storm systems continue to come into the western states and way after the rainy season has ended some big rainfall producing systems have continued. They have just shifted north. The jet stream and flow aloft continues to weaken and summer continues to gradually build in.

Kansas City’s Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Absolutely gorgeous. Light winds from the east as the air continues to flow in from the Great Lakes. High:  80°
  • Tonight:  Clear and pleasant. Light winds. Low: 59°. It will be great for the big game out at Kauffman Stadium between the Astros and the Royals. Temperatures will fall to around 70 degrees by the end of the game. Perfect!
  • Thursday:  Sunny and warm. Light southeast winds around 5-10 mph. High:  81°
  • Friday-Sunday: A warming trend with temperatures getting up to near 90 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. South winds increasing over the weekend at 10-25 mph.

The Weather Pattern:

A big ridge aloft is developing over the middle of North America right now. You can see this well by looking at the flow at around half way up in the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight and thus the pressure is 0 mb. MB stands for millibars.  The surface of the earth has an average pressure of around 1013.25 mb. So, 500 mb is that middle layer and this is located around 18,000 feet above sea level.  Let’s take a look at this upper level flow valid later this week:

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By Friday evening a big ridge will be slowly moving across the plains states extending from Mexico to Canada. The upper level high, the H I plotted, is forecast to be located near southern Baja California. This is the “heat wave creating machine” or anticyclone. This is the opposite of a storm system and there will not be any significant heat waves until this system builds over the United States. We are expecting this to happen in July. For now it is suppressed far to the south.  Energy is coming into the Pacific northwest and moving off the northeastern coast. Look at what is forecast to happen by mid-next week:

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The energy coming into the west coast is forecast by just about every computer model to produce a rather major late spring storm system over the northern plains just west of Bismarck, ND.  The ridge will shift east into the eastern third of North America and this will provide the conditions for a big warming trend over the eastern half of the nation ahead of this storm system.

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At the surface of the earth we have this forecast map valid one week from today at 7 AM Wednesday, June 14. That strong late spring storm can be seen quite well with a deep surface low pressure area forecast to develop right underneath that upper low. A weak front will be dragging across the plains and this is one of the features we will watch and monitor closely for thunderstorm development late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

Between now and early next week

The weather will continue rather quiet in the middle of the nation, and it will be drying out over the east after a rather wet week. Out west the storm will move in with some high mountain snow and some coastal rainfall. The middle of the nation will continue to be dry. In fact, Kansas City will go through the 12th of June with almost no measurable rainfall this month. KCI Airport has had a total of 0.o3″ this month.

Rainfall forecast between now and Tuesday morning: 

gfs_apcpn_us_26

The white areas show where there isn’t even one drop of rain likely.  So, we have a dry stretch of weather over eastern Kansas through early next week. This is the driest stretch of weather since spring began.

Weather2020 continues to advance the cycling weather pattern technology.  The same pattern that set up last fall continues to cycle today. Kansas City has not had an official 100 degree day since September 8, 2013. Yes, that is almost four full summers without a 100 degree day. Our system is forecasting a few runs at 100 degrees in July and August. Take a look at this August projection using our new model:

Screen Shot 2017-06-07 at 7.45.48 AM

This is our automated computer model. We will also continue add our “human” interpretations to the pattern which are essential to combine the art and science in bringing you the most accurate weather information. We believe the nearly  four year streak will end this summer.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience!  We will go in-depth on 41 Action News and on KSHB.com.

Gary

The Backdoor Cold Front Has Moved Through & A Look Into Our Next Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today-Thursday: GREAT WEATHER with sunshine, low humidity and warm.  Highs 77-80 degrees with no chance of rain
  • Friday: Becoming humid with south winds returning. Highs warming back into the 80s

The Cycling Weather Pattern

We often show the biggest, most amplified features to showcase the LRC. These are usually deeps storms or big ridges.  The entire weather pattern is cycling and beginning last December and in the months since we showcased dozens of examples with map to map, cycle to cycle comparisons.  Here is one of the flatter features coming into the western states in the next week. Look at how it compares, and 236 days before next week, or 59 times 4:

The map on the left is what happened in this part of our first cycle of this years pattern, and the map on the right is the European model forecast for this same part of the pattern due in within the next week. This will likely create a strong surface storm by late this weekend:

This is the surface forecast from the European model valid one week from tonight on June 13th. Storm chasers will be paying close attention to this set up as a strong surface low is forecast to form over South Dakota with a trailing cold front into Kansas.  The warm front is forecast to stretch out from this low across Minnesota and this is likely where the biggest risk of severe weather will be located.  It’s a week out, but it is our next storm system and it fits the LRC perfectly.

Well, we are around a week away from our next storm system. This will provide an entire week to dry out with almost no chance of rain at all. Remember this is the wettest time of the year, on average.  Kansas City averages 5.23″ in May and 5.23″ in June. Here are the graphics from a few days ago when we looked into the month of June.  Overall, this month has looked like a drier month, but remember it only takes around three hours to get five inches of rain. In May, most of the rain fell in just a few hours.

Kansas City is sitting at 0.03″ for this first week of June, and there is no chance of rain until at least next Tuesday. So, this will mean that the first dozen days of June were dry from around KCI Airport northward. Around an inch of rain did fall in a few spots Sunday from that band of showers and thunderstorms that formed near and south of I-70.  It only takes a few hours and you can get a lot of rain, so to get to our forecast of 3 to 4 inches of rain your area will have to be targeted at least two or three times. That may be the maximum for this months weather.

Have a great Tuesday and thank you for participating in this weather experience.

Gary

90° Watch

Good Monday,

We may very likely reach 90° today ahead of a back door cold front.  It has been 257 days since we officially reached 90° in KC.  The average first 90° high is May 27th, so we are just a bit late.  If we miss today, there will be a chance by the weekend.

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The hottest day so far was back on May 15th when we reached 88°.

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MONDAY MORNING: It was already 85° at 11 am, so I think we will reach 90°.  There is a cold front approaching from the northeast (back door) and you can see some refreshing Great Lakes air behind it from Madison to Chicago.  We will not get the full affect of the  Great Lakes air, but it will be noticeably cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.

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TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT: The cold front will be on our doorstep with hardly a cloud.  Downtown KC may be near 80° right ahead of the front.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The winds will be from the east to northeast at 5-15 mph bringing in the cooler air.  Lows will be in the 60s and it will feel refreshing.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: It will be a spectacular day with highs in the mid to upper 70s along with abundant sunshine and lower humidity.  Rain and thunderstorms in the high plains will track south into western Kansas by Wednesday, not coming close to our region.

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WEDNESDAY: This will be another great day with highs in the 70s after lows in the 50s!  Sunshine will be in abundance once again.

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We do not see much rain the next seven days, so if your yard or farm did not get a nice downpour over the weekend, it might be time to irrigate.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Drier Weather Pattern

Good Sunday,

We have been tracking a weak system moving across the southern Plains with the I-70 corridor being on the northern edge of this system.  This system is cut off from the main jet stream, so it does not have much energy and severe weather is not an issue.  This upper low will weaken and track into the southeast USA by Monday, leaving our region underneath the ridge.  This means a drier weather pattern, so let’s go through the next several days.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: There will be a few showers and thunderstorms around, especially from the I-70 corridor south as we stay on the northern edge of the southern plains system.  Highs will be in the 80s north where there is more sun and 70s south where there is more clouds.

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SUNDAY EVENING: The showers will have dissipated making way for a nice evening, a bit humid.

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MONDAY MORNING: It will be clear, mild and humid with lows in the 60s.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be almost hot as we come close to 90° along with abundant sunshine.  A cold front will be approaching from the northeast.  This is called a backdoor cold front and will not have much, if any, rain with its passage.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The front will have moved through making for a refreshing morning.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with a nice northeast breeze.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The weather will be spectacular with highs in the 70s along with lower humidity.  Thunderstorms in the high plains will try to make it here Wednesday, but they will likely dissipate before they arrive.

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UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK: We will be mostly underneath a ridge as the southern system fades away.  The trough in the Pacific northwest will move east by the end of the week, keeping us in the ridge.  This means after the Tuesday into Wednesday cool down, the warmth and humidity will return and we will make another run at 90°.

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There is not much rain in the forecast so we have a sprinkler warning in effect as the last 7 days have only seen decent rain in some locations, especially south of KC.  The next 7 days look mostly dry, so if you do not get the rain you need today on your yard or farm, watering will be wise.  Remember, you need 1″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep the grass green.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

 

Has Severe Weather Season Ended?

Good morning,

There is a weak upper level low over the southern plains with a very weak wave of energy moving in from the south. This will produce a few showers and thunderstorms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas. For Kansas City, a few small showers and thunderstorms are likely, but they will move slowly and most areas will stay dry. There is a chance one could form near you however, so keep your eye to the sky as the clouds could be quite pretty as they build up around our are once the sun has had a chance to warm us into the 80s by noon.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today-Sunday: A great morning followed by a warm and muggy afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are likely today and Sunday. But, the chance of one forming right over your head is 20%. Highs in the middle 80s with light southeast winds.

Has severe weather season ended? Let’s take a look.  Rarely is severe weather season cut off by June 1st.  The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and we know that those ridges will return on schedule and be stronger as we move into summer. Our weather team at Weather2020 has been forecasting these ridges to strengthen in June and July, but how strong will they become?  And, with our knowledge of this cycling pattern we know that more storm systems will make it into the Pacific northwest. How strong will these be and will they force the ridges to weaken and push east or will these storm systems ride over the top of the ridges creating longer term heat waves?  This is something we are expecting to happen, to have a few of the ridges become too strong for these storm systems to penetrate, but which one will “stick” and create a heat wave?  The pattern right now appears to be capable of producing one of those stronger ridges and it has been showing up on some of the models. Either way, the severe weather season may have ended as there is nothing showing up that would produce a good storm chase for the tornado chasers out there in the next ten days.

The forecast for Monday night shows one of he ridges leaning from southwest to northeast, and this configuration is going to help bring a backdoor front through the eastern and central plains states.  And, you can see one of the storm systems that earlier in the cycling pattern would have tracked much farther south, but we are now seeing the summer version of this years LRC and this storm is begin deflected over the ridge.

Around a week from today a stronger storm is forecast to move into the Pacific northwest and another ridge will build over the plains. Will this storm be strong enough to break down the ridge, push it east, and create a severe weather risk?  This is something we will be monitoring.

Tornado stats by state:

Have a great day and we will see how all of this sets up soon.  For now, it appears we will have mostly a dry next ten days or so. There will be a few afternoon and evening isolated showers or thunderstorms possible as well, but these will be small and move slowly.

Gary

A Calm Beginning To June

Good morning bloggers,

The weather we area analyzing today:

  • The jet stream is retreating north and it is a really calm beginning to June
  • A “backdoor” cold front is in the forecast for early next week, what does that mean?
  • The cool rainy start to June did not produce a lot of rain. Is it about to dry out?
  • Is Tornado Season Over? We will take a look at the season tornado stats

The month of June begins awfully quiet across most of the United States. Here are the watches, warnings, and advisories as of 8 AM this morning. As you can see almost the entire United States is advisory free with very few exceptions:

There was an area of rain early this morning near Kansas City and near the Gulf coast, but otherwise June is beginning very calm.

Take a look at the biggest reason why:

The jet stream has shifted north. This map above shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above the surface, valid today at 7 PM. The jet stream has retreated way up to near the USA/Canada border.

The flow aloft continues to retreat northward and by Monday the jet stream is forecast to be mostly north of the United States. That orange curvy colored line shows where the backdoor cold front will be located. What did I say? “Backdoor”?  Take a look at Mondays surface map:

I had to draw the cold front in black, it is supposed to be blue, because my paint program will not produce a blue color for me on this map for some reason. Anyway, you can see the front which will be called a backdoor front if it comes in from the northeast direction. If it has that easterly component to it, then we call it coming in from the backdoor. This one seems to be oriented that way and it should become a bit more obvious by Monday as it develops.  There could be a few thunderstorms near the wind shift line, but I am not convinced of that at the moment.

What happens next, at around 10 days, is a dip in the jet stream out west.  There is still a ridge over the plains however, in fact there is a ridge on all three of our plotted upper level maps today.  When the jet stream drops near the west coast at day 10 I will begin wondering how strong the ridge and heating will be ahead of this next shift in the pattern. Some models cut off the chances for wide spread rain and build in some heat in ten to 15 days.  We will have to monitor this closely.

So, here we are moving into June. Summer begins in three weeks.  I am still forecasting Kansas City’s first 100 degree day at KCI Airport in almost four years (September 8, 2013) to happen this summer and a few times.

Tornadoes by state so far this season:

  1. Georgia:  126
  2. Texas:  118
  3. Missouri:  91
  4. Louisiana:  67
  5. Mississippi:  63
  6. Kansas:  54
  7. Illinois:  51
  8. Oklahoma: 50
  9. Alabama:  40
  10. Iowa:  31
  11. Arkansas:  25
  12. Kentucky:  20
  13. South Carolina:  19
  14. Tennessee:  19
  15. Virginia:  18
  16. Indiana:  18
  17. Pennsylvania:  11
  18. Ohio:  10
  19. Wisconsin:  9
  20. Colorado:  9
  21. New Mexico:  8
  22. North Carolina:  7
  23. Minnesota:  6
  24. Nebraska:  5
  25. 16 States have not had one tornado reported yet in 2017.

I am not sure if the most glaring thing from looking at the top 24 states is that Georgia is really way in the lead with 126, when you consider the size of Georgia vs. Texas, but perhaps the fact the Nebraska has had only five tornadoes at this point of the season? Their season starts a bit later, but that is a really low total and indicative of how this pattern has produced that hot spot off to the east.

Gary

A Few Thunderstorms May Form In These Next Two Days

Good afternoon bloggers,

An interesting late May and early June set up exists near Kansas City this week. There is a weak front forecast to develop and stall near our region tonight and Wednesday. At this time of the year you just need a front near by and thunderstorms will be rather likely. The winds converge near the front. It may be weak, but with so much moisture available a few thunderstorms will likely be forming. You can see this front on this forecast map for tomorrow.

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This front is forecast to be located over the Kansas/Missouri region with a warm front extending out from a low pressure area near Denver, CO, or rather it is really a stalled front near Kansas City as you can see above.  The models have varying ideas on when thunderstorms will form. A lot of times at this time of the year you do get late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, and you can also get late night and early morning thunderstorms.  We will be monitoring closely. There isn’t even a slight risk of severe weather, but a few of these thunderstorms could still become severe with hail being the main risk of around the size of a quarter or less.

This next forecast map shows the thunderstorms near or just south of Kansas City. This is just one model solution. The other models have all kinds of other solutions, but we can certainly see that there is a chance of thunderstorms and if you get under one of these it could produce one or two inches of rain in a short period of time.

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We will be monitoring this closely on 41 Action News. Our month long forecast verified quite well.  Here was the forecast from 30 days ago:

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It was really quiet and dry during the first 17 days of the month, and then it got stormy and wet in the past two weeks. This is exactly what we forecast would happen as you can see above and below:

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We will be doing a month long forecast for June tonight at 10 PM.

Have a great evening. I am on the air tonight and we will go in-depth into our weather forecasts to bring you the best weather information available.

Gary