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Looking Into September & Tropical Development

Good morning bloggers,

A rather interesting weather pattern is setting up for the first week of September.  There will be a tropical connection forming in the next several days that may end up increasing our chances for rain over the holiday weekend.  The tropics are becoming active as predicted it would be by Weather2020 this week 8 months ago (see the last graphic in this blog).  The peak of hurricane season is approaching and it usually will pick up in activity at this time of the year, and what Weather2020 has shown with this recent prediction is that using the LRC the location of the activity increase is predictable.  More on this below. Here is the 7 PM forecast 500 mb chart from the overnight GFS model:

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The 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet above us.  This is around half way up in the atmosphere in weight, is unaffected by surface friction, and is the best level to monitor storm systems.  Tropical storms are warm core systems with the most intense part of the storms near the surface. A reflection of them is easily seen aloft, however, and we can see the development of what will likely become Hurricane Florence over the holiday weekend. There is also a tropical wave near the Bahamas that is being monitored closely.

For Kansas City there is a warm front passing through this morning, and this has triggered thunderstorms, most numerous east of Kansas City. The heat and humidity will be returning big time today with highs jumping to near 90 degrees or higher the next two days.  By Sunday, the flow will be rotating in from the Gulf of Mexico at most levels of the troposphere. This will increase moisture and will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms in Kansas City before the holiday weekend is over.

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September is one of the wetter months on average in KC. And, the next 16-day total from this latest GFS model run shows that the first half of the month will be somewhat active with rain chances.

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I quickly put this together showing the 8-month prediction made at the AMS conference in January as compared to the 5 and 7 day outlooks that came out the past couple of days.  Weather2020 over the past few years has made these types of predictions accurately for tropical activity, severe weather outbreaks, Arctic outbreaks, winter storms, and more.  As Real Humedude suggested yesterday, it is how it is phrased, how it these predictions are described that will continue to evolve.  This latest example, at 8 months out, we would predict the location and explain how a tropical wave is likely to target this region on the date range predicted.  And, then as we get closer the prediction will become more specific.  Either way, this is a validated LRC prediction, and I am sure most of you would agree.  These other outlooks are strikingly similar to the one that was issued and monitored for 8 months now.  The models are the models, so let’s see if anything intensifies early next week, right on schedule.Screen Shot 2018-08-31 at 7.25.00 AM

Have a great day and a safe holiday weekend. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation at weather2020.com.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Here it the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Tropical Outlook Comparisons

Gary

A Look Into The Next Few Chances Of Thunderstorms

Good morning bloggers,

As August is inching towards its ending, we are finally getting some more consistent rainfalls.  Today’s thunderstorms had more organization than most complexes of thunderstorms that have struggled in our region this entire season.

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Kansas City was just north of the center of this MCS (Mesoscale Convective System).  The thunderstorms continued into the late afternoon producing a cold pool of rain cooled air:

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This is likely going to be a factor for where thunderstorms redevelop tonight. If the cold pool washes away and the warm air is able to surge back in, the thunderstorms will form near the Iowa border.  If it holds together long enough, and the warmer air doesn’t take over, then the thunderstorms may form closer to KC.  It is something I should be able to identify by the 10 PM newscast tonight.

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And, then next week. The LRC forecast of a potential tropical system has already verified. The National Hurricane Center has a similar risk to the one that was made by Weather2020 8 months ago.  It is in the same spot for the same time frame. It does not mean there will be a tropical storm or hurricane, however. We will monitor this region closely.  It is quite obviously as forecast just by looking at the GFS model output for early next week.  And, there is a flow from this region to over Kansas City. This may lead to an increased chance of thunderstorms near KC. If a very organized storm forms, like a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely cause sinking air near KC. The impacts will be better defined in the next few days.

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This forecast map above shows the precipitation and  clouds forecast by the GFS model for Tuesday.  Let’s see how this evolves.

Have a great evening.

Gary

Rare Morning Thunderstorm Moving Into KC & A Look At The Gulf Tropical Potential

Good morning bloggers,

Well, we haven’t had many mornings like this one.  Here come some thunderstorms.  We will blog later this morning after this moves by.  Here is the radar as of 6:30 AM:

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There are more thunderstorms behind the leading edge. This is an evolving complex of thunderstorms as a disturbance moves through this morning. A warm front is also approaching from the south. We will look ahead later today into the holiday weekend.

The part of the pattern that Weather2020 predicted to produce a tropical system is arriving in these next seven days as well. Five straight European Model runs have modeled a system in almost the exact spot as projected using the LRC 8 months ago.  The other models have not quite been producing this system like the European model.  Other sources have outlooks out that look just like the Weather2020 one from 8 months ago, an 8 month outlook as good or better than these five to seven day outlooks.  Let’s see how this trends.  Here is the forecast from last nights Euro:

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 6.33.39 AM

That system is almost exactly where Weather2020 projected it to be located.  The water temperatures are very warm, in the mid to upper 80s, so conditions may become quite favorable for rapid intensification.  It still needs to form first.  Let’s see how this trends.

Have a great morning. Let’s discuss these thunderstorms and then we will look ahead later today when we get the time to write up a full blog.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

Thunderstorm Chances Thursday-Labor Day, but There is a Trend

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Some locations can say that the drought has been seriously dented. Others, well, the same old story.

Here are radar estimated rainfall totals for the last two days, since Monday August 27th. Northern Missouri and southeast Iowa were the big winners with rainfall amounts of 2″ to 5″. Eastern Kansas and west central Missouri were the big losers.

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When you zoom in on northern Missouri you can see there was a band from around Trenton-Chillicothe to the Iowa and Illinois borders that saw many amounts between 2″ and 4″ of rain. These are areas that can say the drought is dented. There were some nice amounts around Maryville, MO as well.

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Rainfall was still mostly paltry in KC, despite a major line of thunderstorms crossing most of the city Tuesday evening. The line was moving very fast and there were some very thin parts to the line. Amounts ranged from under .05″ to 1.50″ with the heaviest across northern sections of Platte and Clay counties. This mostly came from Tuesday night thunderstorms.

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Now, let’s take a look at the next few days.

TODAY: The clearing line is located between Kansas City and St. Joseph. This line will drift south through the day, leading to a near perfect evening. Highs will be in the 70s, dropping to around 70° this evening along with a light east to northeast wind.

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THURSDAY MORNING: The cold front from today will begin lifting north as a warm front. So, the low clouds will return and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri with KC on the northern edge. Lows will be 60°-65°.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The afternoon will be mostly dry under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs will be 75° to 85°. The warm front will be drifting north and during the evening new T-Storms will form from southeast Nebraska into eastern Kansas. The best chance will be after 9-10 PM, mostly after the Chiefs game.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: Where will the main thunderstorms track? The 12z GFS and 12z NAM have it tracking mostly into northern Missouri and southern Iowa as the southern extension falls apart. This would leave KC with paltry rainfall totals. This is not set in stone as these can sometimes turn hard south. Data from earlier in the week was suggesting this. 1″ to 4″ of rain will occur where the main area tracks with amounts none to 0.25″ where it does not track.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LABOR DAY: The warm front will be heading north and it will stall then begin wavering back and forth through the weekend. The heaviest rain will be along and mostly north of the front. The data has been trending for the front to be mostly across Nebraska and Iowa, but this is not set in stone. Thunderstorm clusters will play a huge role on the daily location of the front.  Highs will be in the 90s south of the front and 70s/80s to the north. We will have to take the forecast one day at a time.

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Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

Look At The Euro Model For Next Weeks Hurricane & Extreme Humidity Will Fuel Thunderstorms

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with the title of this blog. How does the LRC help a forecast? Weather2020 knows what the weather pattern will look like hours, days, weeks, and months before it happens.  Conditions will become favorable for the Atlantic basin to become active next week.  Now, exactly what will happen is obviously just beginning to enter the conversations for those with tropical interests. Let’s see what happened while we were sleeping last night:

Euro Day 8 Forecast Valid September 5

This map shows the European model, while the GFS model did come in with a weaker, yet similar solution.  It is in the exact spot as predicted in January for this next week. Now what will really happen? Let’s keep our LRC feet up and keep watching closely.

Today’s Set Up:

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A cold front is approaching the area. It can be argued as being an early fall cold front. It is now that time of the year.  Ahead of this system will be a rich and deep tropical air mass with extreme humidity. A few 80 degree dew point readings may show up ahead of the front. This means that the rainfall rates would likely end up in the 3″ per hour rate and flooding is one of the risks tonight. This front is trying to target some of the driest regions in the current drought situation.

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Most of the thunderstorms will be near the front. Where the front is located between 8 PM and midnight will likely be the location that has the heaviest rainfall.

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By morning this system will be pushing south with cooler air moving in for Wednesday, then the chance of thunderstorms returns later in the week as the moisture tries to flow back north.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

High Based Thunderstorms To Start The Week

Good morning bloggers,

The week begins with high based thunderstorms on this Monday morning.  Sunny The Weather Dog posed for this picture with the altocumulus bases, around 9,000 feet up, and a few rain shafts, and even a little rainbow:

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The past few days have had a high of 93° Saturday, 90° Sunday, and today will likely reach 91° to  94° later this afternoon.  A cold front will then approach the area.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: The high based thunderstorms will weaken before noon and fall apart.  There is a 30% chance of one near you, which means there is a 70% chance you will stay dry.  Mostly sunny this afternoon and windy. South winds 15-30 mph. High: 93°
  • Tonight:  A few clouds with no chance of rain.  Breezy and warm conditions will continue with a low of 76°.
  • Tuesday: Partly cloudy, hot, and very humid.  There is a 30% chance of late afternoon thunderstorms. High:  91°
  • Tuesday Night:  Mostly cloudy with an 80% chance of thunderstorms. A few may be severe early in the evening around sunset.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. Low:  63°
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High:  80°

KCI Airport had 0.20″ of rain this morning. There is a good chance of heavy thunderstorms forming near a cold front Tuesday evening.  Here is a look at the surface forecast map valid at 7 PM Central Time Tuesday:

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The GFS has been the most aggressive with the rainfall generation from this set up. It is showing one to two inch totals in the area. The timing is good for the front to move through a very moist and unstable air mass, and it seems strongly likely that we will see some of our heavier thunderstorms of the year Tuesday evening.

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.  From the Storm Prediction Center:  Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the central plains through the upper midwest and Great Lakes region, into New England Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Tuesday Cold Front

Good Sunday bloggers,

We have been tracking a disturbance this morning. It it is bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The KC area will see a few showers and sprinkles until 9-10 AM.

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Now, lets talk about the next cold front that arrives Tuesday.

TODAY: There will be lingering areas of clouds this afternoon with highs 90°-95°. It will be a few degrees cooler in northwest Missouri where the rain is more widespread. The wind will be increasing from the south with gusts to 30 mph.

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MONDAY: It will be hot and humid with wind gusts from the south to 30-40 mph. This will alleviate the heat feeling, but the cold front to the northwest will really help.

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TUESDAY UNTIL 4 PM: It will be very warm and humid with highs 85°-90°. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The front is looking slower, so this is good news for a better chance of rain in all locations.

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TUESDAY, 4-7 PM: Rain and thunderstorms will be forming along and behind the front. The severe threat is low, but the localized flash flooding threat could be high.

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TUESDAY, 7 PM-MIDNIGHT: This looks like the time when we will have the best chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms. The locations of the heaviest rain are not set in stone as it depends where the most thunderstorms form which depends on the location of the front.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING: The front will be moving southeast as the rain ends. The wind will shift to the north and highs Wednesday look to be 75°-80°. Right now, it looks like most locations should see .50″ to 2″ of rain with this set up. Hopefully, this holds, because this is how we chip away at the drought. We get an event like this after what occurred last week followed by more thunderstorm chances Thursday-Saturday.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Hot, Humid, the Next Cold Front and Lane

Good Saturday bloggers,

The heat and humidity have returned and will be around through Monday ahead of the next cold front. We will look at the forecast below. First, let’s take a look at how rainfall has evolved over the summer across the middle of the USA. The drought has been obliterated in some locations.

Here is a look at the southwest Plains. The drought has vanished from just north of Amarillo, TX to Dodge City, KS. This was one of the driest locations headed into the Spring.  Look at Dodge City, they are above average rainfall for the year.  Amazing. Amarillo, is about 7″ below average, but 4″ of rain has occurred since July 1st.

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The main body of Oklahoma is doing great with Oklahoma City to Tulsa between 2″ and 4″ above and below average. Tulsa is on the southern edge of the drought impacting our region.

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Here is a look to the north along I-80. Grand Island, NE to Des Moines, IA are also doing great. Now, the drought has crept north into southern Iowa. Des Moines has seen only 3″ of rain since July 1st.

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The conditions across Missouri vary greatly. St. Louis has seen 30″ of rain this year which is 3″ above average. Kirksville, to St. Joseph to KC have seen 12″ to 24″ of rain this year. Now, the drought has been nicked in the last few weeks and there is another round of rain chances next week.

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SATURDAY: Today will be breezy, hot and humid with haze in the air. The haze is the smoke from the western North America wildfires.

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SUNDAY: A weak disturbance will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri during the morning. They will most likely stay northwest of KC. Otherwise, we are in for a windy, hot and humid day with areas of clouds.

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MONDAY: It will be more of the same, windy, hot and humid with highs 90°-95°. There is a cold front entering the picture across the Dakotas and western Nebraska.

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TUESDAY: The cold front will be in our area and will light up with thunderstorms during the later afternoon and evening. Where will the front be located when the thunderstorms get going? The latest data has the heaviest rain from southeast Kansas to northern Illinois. This would leave northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri dry. The front timing will be key to who sees the best rain. If the front is slower, more of our region will see decent rain. Conversely, if the front is faster, then less of our area will see rain. If you miss the rain Tuesday, there will be another chance Thursday as the front heads back north as a warm front.

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Lane is now a tropical storm, but it has shown some intensification south of Honolulu. The storm never made landfall, but the bands of heavy rain will last through Tuesday as Lane drifts slowly west.  What a mess!

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

Hurricane Lane – Hawaii – Florida – Hot Surge

Good morning bloggers,

While a surge of hot air is about to sweep across the plains, Hawaii is still bracing for the affects of Hurricane Lane.  We will also look out to Labor Day weekend where Weather2020 had made a forecast for a potential hurricane to threaten Florida.  The latest models are hinting at tropical storm formation within ten days that must be monitored closely.

Hurricane Lane Early Morning Stats:

  • Maximum sustained winds 120 mph with gusts to 140 mph
  • 340 miles south of Honolulu

SAT_STATEHI_IR4ENH

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The most powerful impacts from Hurricane Lane will miss Hawaii if it turns west early enough. It was drifting north this morning, very slowly.  A turn to the west is likely tonight.  Impacts from the wind part of the hurricane will be minor if the system will just stay far enough offshore. And, it may do just that.  Let’s track this today.

Tropics Labor Day Canadian Day 10Conditions will become favorable for the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, to activate in the next two weeks. It has been very quiet from Africa all the way to Texas. This may change in the next two weeks.  This forecast map on the left shows the Canadian Model forecast that came out last night.  Sometimes the models show hints of systems ten days out, and here is a strong hint of a system.  Using the LRC, conditions become favorable for a tropical system to form around Labor Day.

Tropics Labor Day GFS Day 16The GFS model looks a little too similar to the Canadian model right? Look at this model that came out from last nights model run, but this was day 16 or at the end of the first week of September.  It still shows a hint of the system that has been forecasted from a very long time ago in January.  The European model also shows a system:

Tropics Labor Day Euro Day 10

All three of these models show a system during the first week of September. Quite obviously, we have been monitoring this closely. The LRC provides the insight to know how the pattern will look from one day to up to 300 days into the future.  We are still in the same pattern that set up last fall. The pattern that cycles across the westerly belt from North America east to Europe, Asia, back across the Pacific back to the USA.  We will continue  to monitor this closely.  It is just fascinating to see this showing up.  Now, it is what actually happens that will be measured.  The pattern is right on schedule. Now, will it produce a tropical system as predicted a long time ago? We will know soon.

Kansas City Weather:

We just experienced two rain events in the past week. Yesterdays rain even was rather wide spread, and yet it still left a few areas that didn’t get much rain east of KC.  KCI had 0.60″ of rain from the steady rainfall event yesterday, and Johnson County Executive Airport in Olathe, KS received 0.76″. The thunderstorms that materialized last night formed farther east and missed the areas we were hoping would get a good soaking.

The Heat Builds In. Here is the KC Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with a high of 91°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. HOT & HUMID. High: 96°
  • Sunday:  Sunny, hot, & humid. High:  94°
  • Monday:  Mostly sunny and hot. High: 92°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.  And, in sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  A lot of interesting developments to discuss on the Weather2020 blog.  The new LRC is now just six weeks away from developing!  Have a great day!

Gary

Rain Is Heading Into KC & A Look Into Major Hurricane Lane

Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2018-08-23 at 7.04.33 AM

A rather large area of rain was inching eastward towards Kansas City this morning.  The temperature dropped to 59° in Kansas City this morning. This means that some rather dry air is off to the north and east of KC, and this will help slow the northeast penetration of the rain.  It will make it to the state line, however, in the next few hours and temperatures will likely be in the 60s most of today for a rare-cool August day.  The set up for heavier thunderstorms developing tonight is there as well.  Hot air will be surging  in Friday, and ahead of this big warm surge there will be a zone of heavy thunderstorms forming. There is a zone, seen above, where the heavy thunderstorms are this morning. This developing area will shift north and east a bit tonight, and KC may be near this zone.  Keep us updated on your rainfall totals.

Hurricane Lane:

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It is interesting this morning in the analysis of this satellite picture. Major CAT 4 hurricane Lane is still moving west-northwest. And, look just to the east. There is another cluster of thunderstorms organizing a bit this morning as well. This should get wrapped into the system in the next 24 hours.  How will Lane impact Hawaii? We will learn about all of the impacts in the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hopefully Lane will not turn north as some of the models suggest.

Have a great day, and go to the blog at Weather2020.com as we share in this weather experience. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary