The Next Two Weeks Will Be Quite Active In Tornado Alley

Good morning bloggers,

Severe weather risks and flooding risks will be increasing again in the next seven days, and it will be quite active for the next two weeks.  The weather pattern is cycling with the LRC describing the order to what many think is just chaos. It is anything but chaos, as we have been sharing with you for two decades now.  If you just go back and look at the blog, you will find this part of the pattern approaching as being quite active.  It was more on the winter side in previous cycles, and this time it is going to be more like spring, which means an increasing risk of severe weather.  From the SPC this morning:  “An active stretch for severe weather will occur during the entire day 4 to 8 period, mainly over the central and southern plains“.

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This map, valid Saturday evening, shows the blocked up weather pattern forcing some rather fascinating things to happen near the surface.  This map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us valid 7 PM Saturday night. There is blocking in the form of upper level highs closing off over Canada north to near the North Pole.  This is resulting in forcing the jet stream to be much farther south than normal near the California coast.  There is a lead upper level storm that is modeled to be moving out into the plains Saturday night, and there is a ridge over the eastern states which will help warm them up significantly.

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What is this?  30″ of snow in mid to late May will be a very rare weather event for the Sierra Nevada. Oh, it snows in May and June up at higher elevations almost every year, but 30″ of snow, maybe 40″ of snow?  Now, that will be interesting to see happen.  And, look at what is forecast at lower elevations:

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This is the European Model, above, showing a precipitation total forecast for the next ten days.  Kansas City is in the 2 to 6 inch range with just as much forecast over California. The rainy season ends in April out west in most years, but this will be an incredibly wet weather pattern for California with the jet stream forecast to be forced farther south by the blocking.  And, look how wet it is forecast to be over Montana and the Dakota’s. Something to monitor closely is the amount of rain falling near the Missouri River upstream from Kansas City.  That is a lot of water predicted in these next ten days and the river will rise if this indeed does happen.

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The first severe weather risk will set up Friday into Saturday.  This map above shows one possible solution for Saturday. It is still too early to lay out a severe weather risk, but there will be one setting up over the central and southern plains, and this is just the lead storm. That energy over the Pacific will be heading out over the Rockies and plains states next week.

Today:

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The SPC put this little marginal risk for today.  There is a little warm front forming, and I need to do a bit more analysis to see if there is any chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon or evening. There is a weak disturbance moving overhead tonight.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation!  Have a great day!

Gary

A Warm Up Will Eventually Lead Into Increased Severe Weather Risks

Good morning bloggers,

KCI Airport has now had 3.59″ of rain this month, and we are just getting to the part of the pattern that is more likely to produce the potential severe weather set-ups across traditional tornado alley.  The first strong set up for severe weather will most likely happen around Saturday.  We will go in-depth as it gets a bit closer.

Finally, a big warm-up:

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It has been a cool first half of May, and this is about to change, and big time.  The map above shows a prediction of temperatures at 4 PM central time Tuesday.  The 80s will be surging north all the way to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  The humidity will be on the rise too, and then we will be setting the stage for some thunderstorms.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_11

As you cans see above, a rather big ridge is forming and moving out over the Rocky Mountains and out over the plains states this week. The models have been making horrible errors in showing some of these ridges growing and stopping the flow, or blocking the flow and it was causing panic in some storm chasers a few days ago. There is little chance of what they call “the ridge of death” as it causes severe weather season to go dormant. Well, in this year’s LRC, we know better, and…….

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with a high near67°.  Expect light winds and just a bit cool this afternoon.
  • Tonight: There will be a light southeast breeze at around 5 mph. Low:  55°
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny with light winds.  It will be nearly perfect outside and comfortable with a high of 77°  There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  • Wednesday:  After a possible early morning thunderstorm, expect mostly sunny and breezy conditions to develop.  It will be warmer with south winds 10-20 mph.  High:  83°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer.  South to southwest winds 10-25 mph.  High:  86°

The storm to watch this week:

This is one of many solutions valid at 7 PM Saturday evening.  The FV3-GFS is modeling a very strong surface cyclone over Kansas by Saturday evening:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

If this is at all correct, and it fits the LRC better than the operational GFS model, then we will have the potential for significant severe weather over tornado alley by Friday or Saturday.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC which describes the Order In Chaos, published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine.  If you have any questions, or would like to join the conversation, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the discussion.  We will be moderating the blog to make sure it is an enjoyable experience for everyone reading!

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

Scattered Rain for Mother’s Day

Happy Mother’s day,

We are tracking a weak to moderate storm system that will bring scattered showers and a few T-Storms through the day. The driest hours of the day in the KC area will be breakfast-brunch, 8-11 AM. After today, the weather pattern will be a bit calmer, but not dry.  We will go through the week ahead as well.

The storm system was centered in northern Nebraska as of 6:45 AM. Two waves of rain are rotating ahead of the system. The first wave moved through early this morning and is weakening. The second wave was entering northwest Missouri by 7 AM. This will wave will drop southeast towards I-70 later this morning. The storm system will track southeast into northern Missouri this afternoon. So, the area of weather in eastern Nebraska will be across eastern Kansas and western Missouri from about 12 to 7 PM. The showers and T-Storms will increase in coverage as this area moves southeast.

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MOTHER’S DAY 12-7 PM: We will see scattered showers and T-Storms with a few heavy downpours. There may be some small hail in a few of the T-Storms. Highs will be mostly in the 50s, but some locations may touch 60° in between the rain. Topeka to Pleasanton south and west have the best chance to see highs in the low 60s. Total rainfall will be trace to .50″.

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MOTHER’S DAY 7-10 PM: The rain will end quickly with temperatures in the 50s.

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MONDAY MORNING: Lows will drop to the upper 30s and low 40s. Areas of fog are possible due to a light wind and all of the moisture around. There is a chance some of the fog becomes dense.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The fog and low clouds will burn off, becoming puffy cumulus clouds. It will be a nice May day with highs near 70° and a light wind.

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TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A few showers and T-Storms will be possible Tuesday, but the best chance will occur at night. This will be due to a disturbance and weak front tracking in from the northwest. Some of these T-Storms may produce very heavy rain, but it is not a big storm and will move along. The rain should end early Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for a T-Storm Wednesday as the weak front lingers.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A few T-Storms will be possible early Thursday as a warm front surges north. Otherwise, these days will be partly to mostly sunny, windy, very warm and humid with highs in the 80s. New T-Storms arrive next weekend and these could be severe.

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So, after today, there is one main rain chance the next 5 days. This is quite a bit less than the last two 5 day periods. This will allow for some drying. That being said, the pattern is still a wet one during the wettest time of year. It will be hard to have a long stretch of dry weather in the coming days and weeks.

Happy Mother’s day and have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Two Systems for Mother’s Day Weekend

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking two storm systems for this weekend. We are not expecting flash flooding or severe weather. The first system is now moving through Kansas and Missouri and will exit this afternoon. The second is now in the northern Plains. This system will track southeast and move through during Mother’s day.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Our system from the morning will be long gone. Clouds will be left as highs reach 55° to 60°. The next system will already be bringing showers and thunderstorms to Nebraska, northwest Kansas and northwest Iowa.

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MOTHER’S DAY MORNING: A band of scattered showers will be moving through with lows around 50.

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MOTHER’S DAY AROUND NOON: There may be a few dry hours after the early morning showers. Then, around noon there will be new showers and possibly a thunderstorm as highs climb to 60°-65°.

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MOTHER’S DAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The main system will be twirling by and there will likely be an increase in the coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will drop to the 50s in rain areas.

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MONDAY: The system from Sunday exits, making for a nice Monday with highs 65°-70°. The morning may start with low clouds and some fog.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEKEND: When you add up both storm systems, rainfall totals will reach .10″ to 1″. So, there will not be any flash flooding or severe weather.

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MOTHER’S DAY: At this time it looks like the best times for rain will be early in the morning and after noon. Highs will reach 60°-65°, but in rain areas temperatures will drop to the 50s. So, temperatures tomorrow may be up and down depending on where and when it is raining.

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Tuesday through Friday will see calmer and warmer weather with highs mostly 75° to 80°. The one main rain chance is later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Happy Mother’s Day and have a great weekend.,

Jeff Penner

A Colder May Day

Good morning bloggers,

Has this weather worn anyone out?  The wet weather pattern continues, and it is about to take a break.  Kansas City has not even been a direct target from one of these storm systems.  There have been a few spots in Kansas that have had 10 inches of rain in the past couple of weeks.  Did you know it has rained 11 of the past 12 days, and it likely is going to rain again today?

Rainfall totals as of 10 PM last night:

Add 0.56″ to these totals from last nights thunderstorms and rain that came through around 10 PM to midnight.  So, this is now 5.96″in the past 12 days at KCI Airport, and 2.97″so far in May.

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Here are the past dozen wet days:

  • April 27: Trace
  • April 28:  0.27″
  • April 29: 0.70″
  • April 30: 2.02″
  • May 1:   0.09″
  • May 2: 0.23″
  • May 3:  0.04″
  • May 4:  DRY
  • May 5:  Trace
  • May 6:  0.79″
  • May 7:  0.69″
  •  May 8:  1.14″

Colder air is now moving in, and as discussed yesterday, it is perfectly on the LRC cycle to be the coldest day of the month.  It likely will be as temperatures have dropped into the 40s.  A disturbance is moving our way and there may be a few light rain showers today.  There is also a chance of light rain on Saturday which could affect the race activities at the Kansas Speedway.

Here Is Another Amazing Statistic Of The Day: 

In the first half of May last year, it was in the 80s 12 of the 15 days, with the other three days 78, 78, and 79.  Compare that to this year’s first nine days of the month, and what is in the forecast for the next few days, and it is strikingly colder.  The warmest temperature has been 78° and it may touch 80° by the 15th of the month.  I will work on a graphic to show the side by side comparison!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great Thursday!

Gary

here have been a few spots in Kansas that have had 10 inches of rain in the past couple of weeks.  Did you know it has rained 11 of the past 12 days, and it likely is going to rain again today?

Rainfall totals as of 10 PM last night:

Add 0.56″ to these totals from last nights thunderstorms and rain that came through around 10 PM to midnight.  So, this is now 5.96″ in the past 12 days at KCI Airport, and 2.97″ so far in May.

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Here are the past dozen wet days:

  • April 27:  Trace
  • April 28:  0.27″
  • April 29:  0.70″
  • April 30:  2.02″
  • May 1:   0.09″
  • May 2:  0.23″
  • May 3:  0.04″
  • May 4:  DRY
  • May 5:  Trace
  • May 6:  0.79″
  • May 7:  0.69″
  •  May 8:  1.14″

Colder air is now moving in, and as discussed yesterday, it is perfectly on the LRC cycle to be the coldest day of the month.  It likely will be as temperatures have dropped into the 40s.  A disturbance is moving our way and there may be a few light rain showers today.  There is also a chance of light rain on Saturday which could affect the race activities at the Kansas Speedway.

Here Is Another Amazing Statistic Of The Day: 

In the first half of May last year, it was in the 80s 12 of the 15 days, with the other three days 78, 78, and 79.  Compare that to this year’s first nine days of the month, and what is in the forecast for the next few days, and it is strikingly colder.  The warmest temperature has been 78° and it may touch 80° by the 15th of the month.  I will work on a graphic to show the side by side comparison!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great Thursday!

Gary