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The Changing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

A unique pattern is setting up right before our eyes and it is likely about half way to becoming set for the season.  It is still evolving. Let’s take a look:

1This map on the left shows the 500 mb flow valid today around 1 PM.  There is a negatively tilted trough in the middle of the nation centered near Kansas City. This system has been carved out by a series of many waves. It should not have stayed so dry yesterday, and yet it did stay dry in KC.  I only saw a few drops of rain.  This storm will produce some significant severe weather today, however, and due south of Kansas City.  More on this severe weather risk in just a second.  There is ridging near the west coast, and California has been very dry at the beginning of this years pattern, which is a concern despite a developing El Niño event.

Look at what happens next as you can see on the right.

2This next map shows the 500 mb map valid at midnight next Tuesday morning.  I made a mistake when I typed in the 1 AM Tuesday, as there will have been the time change by then, and we gain an extra hour. Even better, we get to see the new data an hour earlier for the next five months.  What are we seeing on this map?  Another negatively tilted trough centered near KC.  This should be, and likely will become a rather strong storm system.  Yet, as it is passing be KC, what will it produce.  This is an indication of an anchor trough, and may be a good indication for KC this winter.  These two maps show similar troughs around five days apart.

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In the last 30 days, it has been quite wet over Kansas, western Oklahoma, and Texas, which is very different from last year, as the wet areas now, are right over the strongest drought region from this past year.

El Niño:

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El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and it warmed dramatically in the past week.  How strong will this phenomenon become this winter? The models all suggest it will be a weak El Niño, and yet it just strengthened to 1.1°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region.  This will be a factor this winter as well.

Today’s Weather: 

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There is a rather significant tornado risk today, centered over Louisiana. This system is about to produce significant severe weather as there is an enhanced slight risk from southeastern Texas to western Mississippi.  Let’s monitor this closely later today. There is also snow over New Mexico and Colorado.

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So, this storm system is producing all around KC today.  We are near the middle of the storm trough aloft.  So, just because this cycle didn’t produce a major storm here, it doesn’t mean this same part of the pattern will do the exact same thing next time.  In the next cycle there will be much colder air available and I am expecting a stronger storm system that would impact our area a bit more.

Happy Halloween. Trick or Treat!  We will have periods of clouds in KC, a very slight chance of a shower, and a mild day with highs in the 50s.  Have a safe day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Close To Eleven Inches Of Rain This Month

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City is close to having an eleven inches of rain during this month of October.  A few spots have had over 15 inches of rain within the KC metro area.

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A storm system is developing this morning and rain will begin to form soon.  A surface cyclone has been tracking across southern Kansas overnight into early this morning, and a warm front, or really a stationary front is located north and west of KC. It will become a cold front and surge southeast later today. While these surface conditions change, rain will develop, increase, and then shift southeast out of the area.  Here is a look at this mornings surface map:

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Kansas City is on the warm side of this warm front that has set up to the northwest of the city.  This front will begin moving southeast in a few hours in response to this developing weak storm system.  When it begins moving southeast, it will become a cold front and cooler air will arrive later today. It was in the 60s this morning as of 7 AM, and before sunrise.  There was a bit of a red sky this morning, so “red sky in the morning, sailor take warning” will apply. The clouds were thin and high, cirrus clouds, this morning.  Low clouds will be forming as moisture increases from the south and we get some lifting from this upper level disturbance.  By later this morning into early this afternoon an area of rain will be increasing over KC, at least this is what I am expecting as there was nothing at all on radar when I was writing this blog entry.

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This is an interesting little setup over the next five days.  There is a fast moving system that will drop overhead Thursday night into early Friday with a chance of showers, and then a stronger system will likely track by over the weekend, with another system early next week.  The pattern is becoming quite progressive and fast moving, and the models look different every day.  The LRC is in the middle of its setting up period, and we have a lot more pattern to monitor before making any conclusions.  Here is a surface forecast map valid Saturday night.  Note:  Saturday night is the time change where we fall back one hour, and gain an hour.  This map shows a spinning area of rain and snow to our north, mostly rain, however, that would move across KC in a band Saturday night.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Thickening clouds with rain increasing. The rain will develop overhead, and then end from the northwest later today. The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop this evening. High:  64°
  • Tonight: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers.  Low:  47°
  • Wednesday (Halloween):  Trick or treat!  It looks spooky nice with a cloudy sky and a slight chance of showers.  High:  55°

Thank you for voting KSHB-TV as the best local TV station, and I won a couple of categories too, so thank you very much.  I did lose Best Local Personality to a cat, however.

Best Of KC

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

Another Great Weather Day In KC

Good morning bloggers,

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos yesterday on a great Sunday afternoon. The weather this past weekend was about as perfect as is possible at this time of the year.  It was 72 degrees Saturday and 66 degrees Sunday at KCI Airport.  And, today, will be just as nice with a forecast high of 72°.  I just took Sunny The Weather Dog out for a walk and it was calm and a bit cool.  Yesterday, I took a walk with Sunny at Loose Park and found this incredible tree and Sunny posed for this picture:

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So, what is going on with this weather pattern?  It is still evolving and making conclusions now on what will happen this winter are way too early.  Just look at what happened since this weather pattern began earlier this month:

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It has been a wet month of October, anyway you look at it. Over ten inches of rain, and some spots had over 15 inches of rain from that wet system just as the new LRC was setting up.  So, hang on as we learn a lot more in the next few weeks.

How about those KC Chiefs. And, it is Baker Mayfield vs. Patrick Mahomes week. Did you know that Patrick Mahomes set the NCAA record for most yards by an individual player two years ago when Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma 66-59?  Baker Mayfield through for seven touchdowns in that game, and Patrick Mahomes combined running and passing yards totaled 819 yards. WOW! He through for 734 yards, which actually fell short of the NCAA record by 2 yards.  It was incredible:  Mahomes vs. Mayfield record day

Have a great day!

Gary

A Front and Storm System

Good Sunday bloggers,

A cold front moved through last night and we had a few rain showers around 3 AM. The rest of the day will be sunny with decreasing wind, which means great weather for the two big sport events. We have the Chiefs starting at noon and then Sporting KC begins at 330 PM.

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TODAY: A surface high pressure will approach from the west, and this will allow the wind to decrease through the afternoon.

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Highs will be in the mid 60s with the wind dropping to 5-15 mph from the northwest. The temperature at noon, for the Chiefs kickoff, will be around 60°.

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MONDAY: It will be a very nice day. Lows will be 40°-45° with a light wind. The wind will increase to 10-25 mph from the south during the afternoon along with abundant sunshine and highs around 70°.

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TUESDAY: This is the day we see some changes. A cold front will move in from the northwest. Showers and drizzle will form along and behind the front from eastern Kansas to the Great Lakes. We may see a trace to .25″ of rain with highs in the 60s. Temperatures will likely fall to the 50s during the afternoon as the cooler air arrives.

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HALLOWEEN: The front tracks south and links up with a storm system coming in from the Rockies. This will create a large area of rain and thunderstorms well south of our area. So, this means it is looking dry and cool for trick or treating. There is now just a 10% chance we see rain Wednesday evening. The trend of the rain farther south has continued today.

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TRICK OR TREATING FORECAST: The wind will be north at 5-15 mph which means pretty good candy gathering weather.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Fantastic Fall Weather, then a Change

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for some great weather this weekend as a major storm affects New England and a smaller system tracks southeast out of the northern Rockies. This smaller system will have a minor impact on our weather.

A front and storm system will affect the weather Tuesday and Halloween, so let’s go day by day.

The big storm in the northeast is due in part to the remnants of hurricane Willa that impacted the southwestern Mexican coast last Tuesday.

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There is a smaller storm system in the northern Rockies. This system will track into the Great Lakes on Sunday, having a minor impact on our weather.

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SATURDAY: It will be near perfect with highs around 70°, The wind will be from the west and southwest at 5-15 mph, a good day to do the leaves. But, is it ever a good day to do the leaves?

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SUNDAY MORNING: The storm system from the northern Rockies will be tracking through the Great Lakes with rain in Packer and Bear country. Here in Chiefs country it will be sunny and windy with temperatures warming to around 60° by noon. So, for tailgating it will be dry, mild, but windy.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The system will be exiting the Great Lakes as a surface high pressure moves in. This will allow the wind to decrease during the afternoon with highs in the 60s, super Sunday weather!

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MONDAY: The work week will start with very nice weather. As we wait for a front and storm system.

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TUESDAY: A cold front will move in and this will generate a band of showers and a few thunderstorms from KC east. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

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HALLOWEEN: We are tracking a storm system from the Rockies. The latest data has trended towards the system staying south and going around our area. This would mean cloudy, dry and in the 40s for trick or treating. At this time there is a 30% chance the storm tracks far enough north to make it rainy for trick or treating.

I have trick or treated in all kinds of weather in KC over the last four decades, and rain is my least favorite.  Warm and humid is my second least favorite.

We will know more tomorrow as let’s see how the data trends.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

A Storm Next Week?

Good evening, It’s Friday Night In The Big Town,

The models are narrowing in on a potential storm next week. There is a lot to think about and discuss with this system.  I have had my eye on this for a while now as we learn more about the new pattern. Take a look at these two maps:

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This is the GFS model. The European model does something similar around a day later.  So, which wave will be keyed on as it moves across the west coast. Since it is a new pattern, I am still trying to figure that out. So, we will learn more in the coming days. This could be anything from wind and clouds, to rain, to possibly some snow as it exits.

Headlines:

  • Great weather this weekend
  • Highs reach into the 70s Saturday
  • Sunday looks great for a huge Chiefs win over the Broncos (My prediction is 42-24
  • Monday also looks nice
  • We will then begin tracking that possible storm

Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Thursday Rain & One Of the Strongest Hurricanes/Typhoons Ever Seen

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain. Temperatures dropping into the 40s and staying there. Expect a light east breeze.
  • Friday: Cloudy early with some sunshine late. High:  58°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny with a few periods of clouds. Winds increasing from the north later in the day.  High:  65°
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a few clouds. North winds 10-25 mph. High:  58°

Rain is forming around a disturbance this morning. You can see it here on the 8:15 AM radar image:

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This upper level disturbance is rotating around the main weak upper level storm. Can you imagine if this was an area of snow moving our way.  It just looks like a disturbance that would be snow in a later LRC cycle.  For today, expect less than a quarter inch of rain with occasional bands of showers moving across.

The Tropics

A typhoon is a hurricane, and a hurricane is a typhoon.  They are exactly the same. The water over the western Pacific, and other conditions provide the better opportunity for these typhoons to become what are called “super typhoons”, and Yutu is one of them.  Here are the details:

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Super Typhoon Yutu, the strongest storm on Earth in 2018, slammed into the Northern Mariana Islands in the western Pacific Ocean on Wednesday. The storm savagely battered the islands of Tinian, Saipan and Rota, with the eye completely engulfing one of the islands at midday Wednesday. Super Typhoon Yutu is estimated to contain maximum sustained winds of at least 180 miles per hour, with higher gusts.  Why it matters: This storm is the strongest typhoon ever to strike the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and likely the strongest ever to strike the U.S. and its territories. “This is an historically significant event,” tweeted Michael Lowry, a FEMA hurricane specialist.  Based on satellite data that meteorologists use to estimate storm intensity, Super Typhoon Yutu is one of the strongest tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) observed on Earth in the modern record, on par with Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. That storm devastated the city of Tacloban in the Philippines, killing thousands.

Super Typhoon Yutu is located in an area of extremely warm waters and light upper level winds, and is making a run at achieving its maximum potential intensity for that area.

Super Typhoon Yutu hits the Northern Mariana Islands as one of the strongest-ever storms.Super Typhoon Yutu hits the northern Mariana Islands as one of the strongest-ever storms. Gif: Harry Stevens, Axios Visuals.

The details: Yutu is also affecting Guam, which hosts substantial U.S. military installations, such as Anderson Air Force Base.

  • Radar images from that base clearly showed the destructive storm as it moved toward Saipan, which has a population of about 50,000. Tinian and Rota, which with Saipan make up the Northern Mariana Islands, are smaller, with a combined population of about 7,000.
  • Super Typhoon Yutu underwent a period of extremely rapid intensification, going from a 50-mph tropical storm to a 180-mph Category 5 in just 48 hours.
  • More notably, it went from a Category 1 typhoon to a Category 5 in just 24 hours.

Areas that feel the brunt of the storm will see widespread destruction, on par, if not worse, than what was seen with Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle. The combination of dangerous winds and storm surge flooding can obliterate homes, reducing them to their foundations.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Willa and Rain Chances

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are tracking a major hurricane and two to three minor chances of rain. Let’s look at the hurricane first.

Hurricane Willa will make landfall tonight near Mazatlan as a category 3. Fortunately, it has been steadily weakening since it reached category 5 strength Monday morning with 160 mph winds. That being said, it will still wreak havoc on the southwest Mexico coast. The remnants of Willa will bring heavy rain from Texas to the southeast USA this week.

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We are tracking two small upper level lows in the western USA. These will join forces in a weak way and set us up for our next rain chance.

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WEDNESDAY: It will be dry around here with an increasing and thickening overcast. Widespread light to moderate rain will occur in the western Plains. Highs will be in the 50s.

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THURSDAY: The system will head east and weaken, which means we will see a cloudy and cool day with scattered showers. The rain will be mostly light so amounts will be a trace to 0.10″. Highs will be around 50°.

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FRIDAY: Our weak system will join forces with the remnants of Willa, becoming a bigger storm system in the eastern USA. Our area will see decent fall weather with highs around 60° under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

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THE WEEKEND: We will be tracking two fast-moving systems from the northwest. So, we do have a chance for some rain this weekend. Any rain, however, will be mostly light and brief. The first chance is Friday night into early Saturday, which leaves Saturday mostly dry.

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The second system is timed for later Saturday night into early Sunday. This one may be a bit bigger, but still move quickly. You can see we are in the middle of the rain around 5 AM on the map below. This would be good news for the Chiefs and Sporting KC games as the system would be long gone by 8-10 AM. These systems will need to be watched closely as any change in timing could be an issue for the daylight hours.

Highs this weekend will be in the 50s to low 60s. If the systems affect the daylight hours, then it will be much cooler with highs in the 40s and 50s.

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Have a great night and Wednesday.

Jeff Penner

The Snowflake Contest Begins & 22 Years Ago Was The Snowy October Surprise

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to set up for the season. The 2018-2019 LRC has a few more weeks to go before we will know so much more.  Where is the big western trough that created the conditions for 10″ of rain? Is that coming back? If you have been following our blog the past few years, then you know the answer to that question.  A unique pattern is setting up, one that has never happened before, and this is one of the more fascinating aspects of the LRC, and we have cracked the code.  The LRC just predicted the four named tropical systems to affect the United States (Alberto, Florence, Gordon, and Michael).  And, now what is going on with this pattern. We will look at the developing changes in the next ten days, share the link to enter the snowflake contest, and we will begin with a look back at 22 years ago today when Kansas City had the “October Surprise” and 6 to 8 inches of snow fell.

4This map shows the weather pattern on October 22, 1996.  A very strong upper level low was lifting out negatively tilted just southeast of Kansas City.  It turned just cold enough for heavy rain to change to heavy snow.  Two to three inches of rain fell on this day, 22 years ago, and then when the upper low took the perfect track it turned cold enough for the rain to change to snow. The first freeze of the season also happened that late afternoon, as the temperature dropped to 32 degrees during the snowfall, and then warmed back above freezing when the snow ended during the evening.  Look outside today, and imagine 6 to 8 inches of snow on all of those leaves.  The weight of the snow caused many branches to crash down into the power lines, and we had power outages for many days.  It was an expensive storm for Kansas City.  We were the bulls eye that day.

The weather pattern today is very different than that day, and some interesting changes continue to happen. Here is the 500 mb flow today:

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Major CAT 4 Hurricane Willa is located off the west coast of Mexico, and it will be picked up by the westerly flow to its north and kicked out with all its moisture across some of the very wet flooded grounds of Texas.  The jet stream is getting stronger over the Pacific and eastern Canada, and big changes are ahead of us.

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By Halloween a rather major change takes place. The models are all over the place on what will happen, and the trend has been towards a deeper western trough.  Confidence is still quite low on how all of this will play out in the next ten days.  It is just becoming more apparent that a big shift back to more of a trough west of Kansas City is likely within a week or so.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and near perfect.  High:  70°
  • Tonight: Clear with light winds. Low:  45°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny. High:  62°

Could it snow early this year?  Sure it could.  I still need to see a lot more as we prepare to issue our winter forecast in a few weeks. Here is the link to the snowflake contest:  Enter The Snowflake Contest

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Gary

Two Small Systems the Next 7 Days

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are having some great fall weather and it will last most of the next week with a few exceptions.

It has been a rather active month of October and look what it has done to the drought east of the Rockies.  There is virtually no more drought across the eastern 2/3 of the USA. We will see if the new pattern can take care of the western drought.

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A surface high pressure moved across Iowa this morning. The clear sky, dry air and light wind took temperatures down to the low 20s near the high. The wind blows clockwise around around high pressure and the south winds bring in warmer air. Western Kansas saw temperatures in the mid 40s. This is a sign of warmer air moving in to our area.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny with an increasing south wind to 10-20 mph. Yes, the wind will be Chiefs red! Highs will be around 60°.

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SUNDAY EVENING: The temperatures will not drop much after sunset as the south winds continue. So, for the game, temperatures will be around 50°. However, the 10-20 mph south breeze will make it feel cool.

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MONDAY: It will not be as cold to start, as the south winds will keep lows in the 40s. Highs will be 65°-70°. A weak cold front will move through Monday night, so Tuesday will be sunny with highs in the low 60s.

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WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The first of two systems will move through, bringing clouds and a few rain showers. The area of rain to the west will weaken as it approaches, but we should see some showers. Highs will be in the 50s. The heavy rain across Texas will be due in part to the remnants of major hurricane Willa, now south of the Mexican coast. (CAT 1 as of Sunday morning). This heavy rain will track across the southern USA.

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NEXT WEEKEND: The second system to keep an eye on will be coming from the northwest. It may bring a period of rain Saturday or Sunday and does not look like a big storm system at this time.

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Total rainfall the next 7 days will be in the .10″ to 1.00″ range.

 

GO CHIEFS!

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner