41 Action Weather Blog

Good morning bloggers,

It continues to be a struggle getting wide spread rain in our viewing area.  We had the set up for heavy rain during the past few days and it ended up mostly staying well south of Kansas City.  How much rain did you receive?

Rainfall amounts:

• Leavenworth, KS:  2.80″
• Grain Valley, MO:  1.87″
• Lee’s Summit, MO:  1.80″
• KCI Airport, MO:  1.29″
• Johnson County Executive Airport, KS:  1.19″
• Overland Park South, KS:  1.01″
• New Century Airport, Gardner, KS:  0.74″
• St. Joseph, MO:  0.41″

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Hey bloggers:

T-storms have been firing for the last several hours south and east of downtown KC.

This is the 7pm image> (For a current radar image click here)
These storms will bring isolated heavy rain to some…possibly some small hail.  As far as the metro, extreme southern and eastern communities will be most impacted by rain for the next few hours.  Some of these weak cells showed rotation, so I’ll be watching them as I eat my salad.

Here are the rainfall totals so far (last 24 hours)

Not too bad, eh?

Let me know what you’re seeing…oh, and have a great week!

-GW

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Good morning bloggers!

Here are the rainfall totals as of 8 am:

Not too shabby.  As of 8 am…we were still a couple inches short for the month of April.  Meanwhile, more was approaching.

-Quickly increasing from the southwest:

…Making for another round of rain, some thunder for the late morning.  Forecast models have been indicating a lull in the activity may grace us with its presence this afternoon/evening before another batch of rain tracks through overnight.  For KC:
1. Rain will be possible at any point in the day, with the most likely time for a lull in the action mid afternoon/early evening.
2. Second batch of overnight t-storms will move through the area, quite possibly tracking south of KC.
3. Additional rainfall totals for today may approach 1/2″ around the metro.  On top of that a band of 1″+ additional rain is possible.  Again, this looks like it may track to the south of KC.

As far as severe weather, our chances in KC are very limited:

This is a forecast for CAPE values…a measure of instability in the atmosphere and one of the measures of thunderstorm “strength potential”.

The instability noses closest to KC around 8pm, according to this computer model, but the real potential still sits just to the south.  During the end of day, we’ll watch that outside chance for a severe hailstorm to develop from Clinton/Butler/Sedalia.  I’ll have an update later today.  For KC, good ol’ fashioned rain/thunder/isolated heavy rain today.

Tomorrow-Thursday will have higher severe potential for KC…more on that to come.

The kindergarteners at Gracemore Elementary gave me a “first class” welcome when I came to speak with them a couple weeks ago!

There were about 140 kids…we talked about tornadoes, floods, lightning, heat and weather safety.  They were so polite and and well behaved.  Thanks to Mellissa Phillips for inviting me to speak to the Crusaders!  And my apologies to the boy I accidentally bumped with my knee as I TORNADOED through the crowd!

-GW

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Good Night!

Scattered T-Storms will be around overnight.  As a matter of fact, one will be passing the metro in the 10:30 to 11:30pm time frame.

Isolated heavy rain and lightning and thunder will be passing.  Some small hail not out of the question either.
For a current look at the radar, click here.

Have a safe night,

GW

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Busy day in St. Louis today.  1 fatality and roughly 100 people treated on the scene with a bar tent downtown blown down in the wind.  Then a tornado warning in the St. Louis metro.  As of 6:40 there wasn’t a tornado reported with that storm (but we do have a report of a wall cloud), but many reports of hail up to 3″, wind damage and even some flooding.  Softball size hail was reported earlier east of St. Louis.

Here’s a link to our online story:

http://www.kshb.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/one-dead-in-st-louis-tent-collapse

Previous blog below.

I hope you’re doing well.

Well, here they are.  The rainfall totals from last nights storms - piddling upon arrival to KC.

Topeka was the big winner with almost a half inch, but they had to deal with a tornado warning.  As a matter of fact, Captain Greg and I were monitoring that t-storm in the helicopter.  We had to stop at Forbes Field in Topeka to gas up the chopper.  I was recharging my phone inside when I refreshed my radar image.

The latest radar image showed the t-storm very close to the airport.  I ran outside just as Greg yelled “C’mon George!!!”  We could see the rain approaching just shy of the runway!  We jumped in the chopper and took off as the rain approached.  That storm, was now chasing us!

Anyhow, we were able to safely get up in the air and monitor this storm as it approached our viewing area.  Aside from a report of a funnel cloud, no confirmed tornado or damage in Topeka.

You likely remember yesterday…we talked about the risk for severe weather for last night.  Below is the SPC’s severe weather risk map…showing the heightened risk “MDT” shown in red just southwest of KC.

Superimposed over the forecast severe weather risk are a series of colored dots.  The red dots are two tornado reports from last night’s storms – a sort of verification to the forecast.  Blue and green dots are wind an hail reports.  Although the placement of the moderate risk is encompasses one of the tornadoes and nearly includes the other…according to verified reports, it would have been better located shifted to the north/northwest.  With fairly limited severe weather reports, a slight risk would have been sufficient – purely speaking on verification of storm reports alone.

Ever wonder where they come up with the slight vs. moderater vs. high?  Check out this image from the SPC website:

The outlook probability refers to the chance of a tornado, severe thunderstorm wind gust, or severe hail within 25 miles of a certain point…or within a circular area just shy of 2000 square miles. Yesterday’s area of “moderate risk” I estimate to be around 1/4 the size of the state of Kansas, or 20,000 square miles.  So again, maybe the Moderate Risk was aggressive.

We included in our forecasts that t-storms would likely weaken as they approached KC as it was too cool and we effectively had zero surface based CAPE in the metro.  But with the uncertainty on how far the warm air would make it…we included the possibility for severe weather in our forecast but also stated that it was by no means guaranteed.

OK, enough!  Enjoy your Saturday.  Rain returns to the forecast after midnight…and that could begin a wet 5 days for us.
Below is the latest GFS forecast for total precipitation:

A three inch bullseye of rain somewhere near KC for tomorrow, tomorrow night, Monday morning?  It’s possible, somewhere nearby…but I’m not quite sold on it.  In our favor, we have the possibility or training t-storms repeatedly soaking a narrow strip of land.  But this will both depend on where the front sets up to the south and how much moisture is pumped up and over it.

I’ll have an update on 5/6/10 on this…along with the 7Day forecast.  Have a great day!

Have a great day!

-GW

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Good evening bloggers,

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for this evening’s thunderstorms. The main risk is now potential hail quarter sized or larger, but even this is unlikely in most areas. There are two strong cells at almost 8 PM, one near and just south of Lawrence, and anotherr northeast of Topeka.

Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town. It appears that our viewing area again got protected by the cooler air mass and timing of this storm. Also, the way it was very compact and tight in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  There is a good chance of rain on Sunday. I will go over the details on 41 Action News at 10 PM.

Gary

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Good afternoon bloggers,

Thunderstorms are developing just west of Salina, KS. There should be an explosion of development soon farther south as you can see the conditions on our 2:45 PM surface map:

Notice the 81 degrees in Tulsa, OK, and 78 degrees in Wichita.  Warm moist air is now surging into this system, but we are still waiting for farther south development.  The upper level storm is compact and most of the energy is moving across northern Kansas.  How far south will the thunderstorms build? We are live beginning at 4:30 PM on 41 Action News with complete details.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

Today is the one year anniversary of the horrific tornado outbreak across the southeastern United States where Tuscaloosa, AL got hit so hard.  Let’s hope nothing like this materializes today.  We have the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed our viewing area in a moderate risk which is centered southwest of Kansas City.  The SPC has also put an enhanced tornado risk in our viewing area as well:

Conditions may come together for some significant severe thunderstorm activity which will include possible strong supercell thunderstorms.  Here is a forecast map I showed on the air last night at 10 PM on 41 Action News:

We are deeper into the cooler air this morning. One of the most important conditions to monitor today will be the low level instability. Will the warmer air and Gulf of Mexico moisture work it’s way north into our viewing area as the low pressure system tracks east to near the Kansas/Missouri border later this evening?  A strong surface low is forecast to move into central Kansas, a bit farther south than I am showing on this map above.  I will post the new surface forecast below by 9:15 AM.  Strong south to southeast winds ahead of this system will help lift a warm front northward near the Kansas/Missouri border.  There will be a good chance of severe thunderstorms south of Kansas City near this warm front and extending to near the surface low.  How far north this warmer air gets will decide how much severe weather risk will make it into the KC metro area this evening.  The low level flow will be backed significantly just north of the warm front and this will lead to a vertical shear profile that will be capable of supporting surface based supercell thunderstorms and this is why the SPC has increased the tornado risk.

Here is another surface forecast valid at 7 PM this evening:

The surface forecast map above, from this mornings 12z (7 AM) RUC model shows the 994 mb surface low over central Kansas. Kansas City would still be in the cooler air if this map is correct.  The most likely severe weather risk area at 7 PM would be just to the southwest, but obviously this has to be monitored very closely.  There will be a wedge of higher instability between the dry line (the dark brown line) and the warm front (the red line).  This is the target area for storm chasers today.  The low is forecast to track just northwest of Kansas City by midnight and this may briefly bring the instability axis right over KC later this evening.

Forecast time-line:

• Now – 4 PM:  Mostly cloudy with cool conditions in the 50s and 60s. East winds 15-35 mph blowing into the low pressure area.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible.
• 4 PM – 6 PM:  Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely form in that instability axis and begin heading our way.
• 6 PM – 10 PM:  A band of strong to severe thunderstorms with all types of severe weather possible will be developing/moving northeast.  If the warmer air can be transported farther north, then areas north and east will also have some severe weather risk
• 10 PM- 2 AM: Risk ends and thunderstorms move away.

Have a great Friday. And, please pay close attention to this developing severe weather set-up.  We will be doing live updates on 41 Action News all day as this threat approaches the area.  Let us know if you have any questions or thoughts and we will try to answer your questions as time permits.  This could be a bad day for severe weather in our viewing area, but as is always the case it hasn’t happened yet and hopefully it won’t come together.  It would be nice to just get some rain without the severe weather risk.

Gary

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Good late evening bloggers,

I am on the air in minutes with some new weather graphics to share with you. I will post them when I copy them over to this blog entry. This forecast is a very difficult one for Friday.

The latest data is still trickling in this evening. There will be an increasing chance of rain, most likely later in the afternoon and evening.  As you can see on the above forecast map, the thunderstorms aren’t wide spread on this Powercast solution.  There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the area and we will go over the set-up in the morning.

Have a great night’s sleep.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

We set a record high yesterday of 92°.  A cold front has moved through and it will be stalling over north Texas and Arkansas this evening before a slow retreat northward on Friday.  Take a look at the forecast surface map valid at 5 PM this afternoon:

A strong late April high pressure area is dropping south from Canada (the 1031 mb high).  We will be in the circulation around this high today creating an absolutely beautiful late April day.  High clouds will likely stream in from the west and southwest as a storm system is moving across the Southern California coastline this morning.  This storm will begin affecting us later tonight and Friday and there are still uncertainties on how the surface weather pattern will react to this ejecting and weakening storm system.  As the upper level storm moves out into the plains on Friday the warm front will be pulled back north, but how far north and will there be a well defined surface low pressure area moving out into eastern Kansas?

Take a look at the new GFS forecast for temperatures at 1 PM Friday.  What a week of extremes! If it is raining, and we need the rain, it will likely be in the 40s at noon.  A strong warm front will be setting up just south of Kansas City:

The trend on the models is for most of our viewing area to stay in the cooler air with a good chance of rain/thunderstorms during the day. If the rain and thunderstorms do form, as predicted by this latest model trend, then the severe weather risk would stay just south of our viewing area. Obviously this is a tricky forecast.  We will put together some special graphics to show this set up on 41 Action News beginning at 4:30 PM this afternoon.  I just hope it rains as it is so dry!

Today is Dining Out For Life benefitting the Good Samaritan Project. Here is a link to the restaurants you can visit today:  Dining Out For Life. I will be at Pine & Bamboo restaurant at 12:30 today for lunch before heading on into work.  Come by and have lunch and say hi. It is for a great cause.  Have a great day. We will go over the details on this developing weather set-up on 41 Action News.

Gary

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