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Another Difficult Weather Pattern To Forecast Over The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

I hope everyone is having a great start to the week. The pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC.  We have been forecasting that the last third of the month  of May  has the best chance of being wetter near KC.  The part of the pattern that produced  the April 13-16 stormy period will be cycling back through near the end of the month.  The biggest outbreak of this pattern (the pattern begins in October and lasts through September) happened on April 3rd, and that part of the pattern is due in around the 20th of this month as well.  Between now and then there are some other systems that will potentially have a few severe weather risks, but they aren’t the bigger ones that have happened. We are in the forecast quieter period right now. There are a few chances in this next  7 days, however, but they are quite challenging to the weather forecaster. We will discuss each chance of thunderstorms as they show up from day to day.  Let’s begin today by looking at the past 90 days:

Screen Shot 2018-05-06 at 3.59.16 PM

The cold April really created the past 90-day anomalies to show up cold from Montana southeast to Missouri. The dry areas across Kansas continued despite some rain events that has caused the drought to contract a bit back over Kansas, across northwest Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle.  The same pattern has continued the struggle to produce consistent rains to end that drought, and this week will be another test.

Screen Shot 2018-05-07 at 7.08.20 AMThe European Model suddenly went into a rather dry forecast over these next ten days. While it appears to be a somewhat active pattern, the trend on most of the models has been a bit drier. This forecast map on the left shows the European Model rainfall forecast over the next ten days ending on May 17th.  Look closely at that pattern on this forecast rainfall map.  Now, compare it to what has happened over the past 90 days.  It’s as if the same pattern is continuing. Well, we know that it is because the same pattern that setup last fall is continuing to cycle today centered in the 47-48 day cycle range.  There are a few chances for thunderstorms in the next week across the plains. The most likely  areas that will have the heaviest rainfall will be all around the driest areas.  A few thunderstorms will sneak into the drought plagued region as well, so let’s see how each set up evolves.

This next map shows the zoomed in rainfall forecast from the same European Model:

Screen Shot 2018-05-07 at 7.08.41 AM

This forecast map shows spotty totals, fairly low 10-day rainfall totals over northeastern KS and northwestern MO, while at the same time there are higher totals just to the north and off to the east.

The SPC outlook for Tuesday:

day2otlk_0600

There is some potential for a few severe thunderstorms in this marginal risk area.  Given the time of the year, we will be monitoring this closely. The models have varied from having these thunderstorms form just west of KC, to having them form just east of KC.  Let’s see how this sets up tomorrow. Then next weekend is interesting, but the storm system is just not organizing properly; I mean it just isn’t looking that likely for KC to be in the right spot for thunderstorms despite a slow moving front in the area. We will analyze these set ups in the next few blogs, and on 41 Action News.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A rather calm and beautiful day. Expect a mostly sunny sky with light winds.  High:  81°
  • Tonight:  Mostly clear with a low in the upper 50s to near 60°
  • Tuesday:  Periods of clouds with a 30% chance of thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms will develop, but will they form north and east of KC, and thus miss us, or will they form overhead or just west. This is our big forecast challenge for tomorrow.  Expect southeast winds 10-20 mph. High:  81°
  • Wednesday:  A gorgeous spring day with west winds at 10 -20 mph. Mostly sunny with a high of 86°

Have a great day. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Increasing Thunderstorm Chances

Good Sunday bloggers,

We had a few showers overnight and now we are in for another nice and warm May day with highs in the 80s. We are in for a marvelous Monday with highs in the 70s. Then the pattern become more active as there will be chances of thunderstorms in the Plains practically every day Tuesday through next weekend. Let’s go through the week.

SUNDAY: It will be a warm day with highs in the 80s along with areas of clouds. A brief afternoon shower is not out of the question. A weak cold front will drift south this afternoon and we will feel the affects tonight and Monday. Lows tonight will drop to 50°-55°, making for a comfortable start to Monday.

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MONDAY: This will be a very nice day with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze from the east. Highs will be 75°-80°.

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TUESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: The pattern becomes more active as a series of disturbances and fronts track east out of the Rockies. The severe threat is lower this week than last week, but it is not zero and we will have to keep a close eye on each day’s set up. The first chance of thunderstorms arrives later Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially from the state line and points to the east.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A front may linger and new thunderstorms will be possible where this front sets up. Right now it looks like southeast Kansas and south Missouri.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Thursday looks calm. Then, Thursday night-Friday a new disturbance will bring thunderstorms to Nebraska. This cluster may stay north along I-80, but we will have to watch for a southeast turn.

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NEXT WEEKEND: A bigger storm system is looking more likely and this is where our severe weather chances will increase along with the chance of heavier rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This active pattern is coming in the nick of time. A drought extends from southern Iowa to the southwest Plains. If the pattern stays dry, then the drought will expand faster during the warm season as evaporation rates increase. If we see many rounds of thunderstorms, the drought disappears.

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Right now it looks like most of the region will see at least .50″ to 2.00″ of rain with some locations seeing up to 4.00″ of rain. The locations of the heavier rainfall totals is not set in stone as it depends on where the heavier part of the upcoming thunderstorm clusters track. Notice that there is not much rain for Oklahoma into Texas. So, perhaps we can lop off the northern part of the drought.

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Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Calmer Weather for a Few Days

Good Saturday bloggers,

The weather this weekend will be rather calm after the crazy week we just completed. This is good news as there are many outdoor events. There is a weak front due in Sunday and there are thunderstorm chances next week, but severe threats are low.

SATURDAY: We have a ton of events today. Let’s take a look at the forecast for most of them.

The Brookside Art fair has had to deal with many weather issues the last several years, but not in 2018. Any rain tomorrow will be brief and mostly during the morning.

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The Royals have a chance to win three in a row! They are also out of last place. The Royals have had to deal with some truly yucky weather this season, but not today. Remember it is a 3:15 PM start. Temperatures will rise to around 83° during the game, making it a bit warm in the sun.

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Sporting KC is in first place and they will have winning weather out at Children’s Mercy Park this evening. temperatures will drift down through the 70s along with a light wind.

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There is a pretty good size event today, not in Kansas City. The Kentucky Derby is in Louisville, KY with the start of the race at 5:34 PM. The weather for this event is not quite as nice as for the events in KC. There is a system that will track across Kentucky, but Louisville is on the northern edge. So, it looks like they will see periods of mostly light rain. The race is on 41 Action News with coverage starting at 1:30 PM.

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Now, if you do not have any events to go to, then you can do something that is not that fun. Which day is best to mow? Well, either day is good. It will be a bit warm in the sun today and any rain Sunday will be brief and mostly during the morning. So, take your pick.

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SATURDAY NIGHT: A weak front and disturbance will head south and this will bring more clouds and the chance for a few showers and T-Storms in northern Missouri. KC will have a near perfect evening.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The front and disturbance will be closer. So, the chance of a brief shower/T-Storm moves into KC.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The front and disturbance will drift by, so the chance of showers and T-Storms shifts east and our area will have increasing sunshine and highs around 80°.

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MONDAY-NEXT FRIDAY: There will be 2-4 chances of rain and thunderstorms as we track a series of disturbances and fronts from the Rockies. The flow aloft will be much weaker than last week and we are not dealing with a big storm system. So, the severe weather threat is quite low, but never zero. Rainfall will be in the .50″ to 2.00″ range. Some locations may see 2″-4″ of rain. This is good news as we need the rain and we are getting into the wettest time of year. We average about 1.30″ of rain per week in our area. The rain last week took KC from about 3.50″ of rain below average to about 2″ below average.  We are going to lose some ground before the next decent rain chance arrives Tuesday night.

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Have a great weekend and happy Cinco de Mayo!

Stay safe and please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff Penner

 

Four Tornadoes Wednesday Night

Good morning bloggers,

DcJYUMoUQAAlY79

This picture above is from Wednesday when Gerard Jebaily was about to experience, what has been called by storm chasers, “the tornado of the year” so far.  It was a large wall cloud that eventually touched down and grew to a likely 1/4 mile wide tornado, most likely with around 175 mph wind and an EF-3.  Gerard also took this picture of a large hail stone that did not hit Storm Tracker, thank goodness. He stayed out of the core of the storm.

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This next picture is when the tornado was touching down and about to grow, just north of Salina, KS.

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It has been quite the week.  After Tuesdays big day across central Kansas, we had Wednesday with many small tornadoes. At least four of them have been surveyed by the National Weather Service.  This first picture, I plotted from what the survey showed from the National Weather Service:

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IMG_3391

There were at least four tornadoes. The survey continues today, so let’s see what comes up in their analysis.  The weather is calming down for a few days. We will look ahead into an interesting set up for Tuesday over the weekend.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Interesting Set Up For Today

Good morning bloggers,

Well, what can I say? It was a rather wild day for us in the weather and news business the past two days.  It began 190 days ago when we targeted this week to be a severe weather week and the LRC comes through with another absolutely incredibly accurate prediction emphasizing the cycling pattern. Then, the severe weather manifested itself earlier in the week when KSHB Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily tracked down an EF3 or stronger tornado over central Kansas. Storm chasers from around the world had a pretty good tornado chase on Tuesday.  Then, on Wednesday there was a moderate risk of severe weather targeting the KC region, and we had many tornado warnings. How many tornadoes? Well, that may be tough to know for certain, but the NWS will do their best to analyze the damage, mostly rather insignificant unless it was your house that had a tree land on it. The spin-ups were mostly “gustnado” types of tornadoes, or just straight line winds. It is a tough analysis for the NWS.  And, now today we have this set up, beginning with the surface conditions that are currently influenced by rain cooled air and morning thunderstorms:

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The models have many varying solutions, but I decided to plot this RUC model surface forecast valid at 8 PM the evening as the sun is about to set:

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Just as I finished plotting this, the SPC updated their map and it is falling in line with what I was analyzing:

day1otlk_1300

There is an area of rain and thunderstorms moving across the plains this morning and this may impact the conditions later, but we are uncertain at this moment. We have to see how this lines up. The most likely area for severe thunderstorms will be north and east of the surface low. This could end up in eastern Kansas if it warms up enough, or it could end up in Iowa as shown above. If it ends up in Iowa, the chance of severe weather near KC is much less. It is something we just don’t know for sure at the moment.

I am a bit wiped out this morning, but we will be ready to track this severe weather risk this evening if it does materialize.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Severe Weather Outbreak Is In Progress

Good evening bloggers,

Here is a rare evening update. I am in between segments on 41 Action News, and you can watch our coverage streaming in KSHB.com if we do have any extended coverage or during our newscasts. It isn’t too often we have such an organized severe weather event in progress as we do this afternoon, and it is taking aim on the KC viewing area. I have a few minutes to update you as the area is still out west, but heading this way. Let’s take a look.

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This is a rather large moderate risk area with Kansas City firmly in this risk. A moderate risk is issued when we are expecting more wide spread severe weather, and possibly more significant.  This has been turning into more of a line, but any thunderstorm along the line may be capable of severe weather. Remember a severe thunderstorm is defined to have 58 mph winds or stronger, hail 1″ in diameter or larger, or a tornado.

The surface map is similar to yesterdays set up with a few exceptions. And, the storm aloft is still sitting over the Four Corners states.  That system will eject out into the plains on Thursday, and more on that set up in a second.

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This set up is producing this radar image as of 4:44 PM:

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Let’s track this in tonight. As  you can see, as of 4:44 I have it timed for between 8 and 9 PM in KC.

The set up for Thursday needs to be monitored closely as well.  This is the risk as of this afternoon from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow.

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This Thursday set up is somewhat different from today.  Today’s activity may affect Thursdays set up, but likely not much. The main storm ejects out, and the surface will respond by tracking the entire storm surface cyclone northeast tomorrow. What am I saying? Well, let’s discuss tomorrow.

Track this with us on the Weather2020 blog. Have a great evening and stay safe. Pay close attention and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today

Good Morning Bloggers,

There is a chance of a severe weather outbreak today.  A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms has been placed over the Kansas City viewing area and I have some concerns that there will be some significant severe weather in our area later this afternoon or evening.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now to 4 PM:  Expect it to stay dry. It will be very humid with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s.
  • 4 PM to 10 PM:  Thunderstorms will be forming near the fronts, troughs, and dry line.  This will most likely happen north and west of KC and then track our way.  Severe thunderstorms with all types of severe weather are possible initially to our west, then the risk will transition to a better chance of damaging winds after the sun sets.  There is also a chance of flooding with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible where the thunderstorms line up. This could happen closer to KC later this evening.
  • After 10 PM:  The thunderstorms will track to the northeast and weaken later tonight
  • Thursday:  We will see how Thursday sets up. It may depend on how the activity leaves boundaries from todays risk.

Here is the 7:16 AM Surface Map:

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As of 7 AM, the surface was affected rather significantly from last nights thunderstorms. KCI Airport got hit pretty good with over an inch of rain.  The complex of thunderstorms made it into northwestern Missouri before finally weakening early this morning. This has created conditions more favorable for the severe weather risk to be near KC. I added the risk area to the same map:

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day1otlk_1300

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS TO NORTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and
   central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley today and tonight.
   Swaths of damaging winds, large to very large hail, and several
   tornadoes will be possible, especially from northwest Missouri
   across central Kansas to northwest Oklahoma.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad closed low over the lower CO River valley will move slowly
   eastward to NM/CO by Thursday morning.  Southwesterly flow aloft
   will contribute to lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO this
   afternoon, and the cyclone will develop northeastward across
   western/northern KS overnight as the midlevel trough approaches the
   High Plains late in the period.  A southwest-northeast oriented
   front will remain quasi-stationary from southwest into northeast KS
   and IA during the day, while a dryline will mix eastward to the
   eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX by late afternoon.  These
   surface boundaries will focus severe thunderstorm development this
   afternoon through tonight, with the more concentrated storms and
   severe threat expected along the front from KS to northwest MO.

   ...KS this afternoon to northwest MO through late evening...
   The surface front will stall today from southwest KS to southern IA,
   and a weakening cold pool from overnight convection should erode
   from west to east during the day (from northeast KS to northwest
   MO).  Meanwhile, a lead mid-upper speed max will eject northeastward
   from NM to central KS by this evening.  This speed max will interact
   with the front and warm sector starting by early afternoon in
   southwest KS, where convective initiation is expected. 
   Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, beneath midlevel lapse
   rates in excess of 8 C/km, will combine with daytime heating to
   support MLCAPE at or above 3000 J/kg along and south of the stalled
   front.  Effective bulk shear near 50 kt will be sufficient for
   supercells, though low-level shear/hodograph curvature will not be
   particularly large for most of the afternoon.  The present
   expectation is for initial supercells with very large hail to grow
   upscale into clusters and potentially bowing segments through the
   afternoon and evening while surging northeastward along the front,
   with an increasing threat for damaging winds by mid-late afternoon. 
   The tornado threat is uncertain given the expected messy convective
   modes and rather weak low-level shear through most of the afternoon,
   though embedded circulations will still be possible with cell
   interactions and storm interactions with the surface front.  
day1probotlk_1300_torn

The tornado risk appears to be highest over the biggest drought area in northwestern Oklahoma.  I favor the risk being a bit farther northeast than where the SPC placed it. We have to see how this sets up in the next few hours. Please plan on paying close attention to the weather developments.  Our weather team will be out again in Storm Tracker from 41 Action News. Gerard Jebaily captured a pretty strong tornado yesterday. Let’s see what happens today.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

 

May Day! Severe Weather Risks & Morning T-Storms

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Early morning thunderstorms will quickly move out. It will be dry the rest of the day. Expect periods of clouds with a high in the middle to upper 70s.
  • Tonight:  Any severe weather risk stays way north and northwest of KC. It may clip northwestern Missouri with severe thunderstorm by around 3 to 6 AM.
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A few may be severe, more likely Wednesday night.

An active three days of weather has started, and there are some pretty significant severe weather risks lining up beginning today.  There are morning thunderstorms near KC at 7 AM.  Take a look at the radar:

Screen Shot 2018-05-01 at 7.00.08 AM

IMG_3414These were high based cumulonimbus clouds.  The bases were around 6,000 to 8,000 feet up. These were effective lightning producers but only 0.10″ of less is expected as they move through. Bigger thunderstorms are likely in the next few days.  Storm chasers are heading into the United States plains from around the world as it has been a rather quiet season thus far. This weeks severe weather risks are right on schedule as predicted by applying the LRC cycle length to the pattern.  Now, how will it set up? Where are the biggest risks?  The Storm Prediction Center has the severe weather risks for the next few three days as shown on these next three maps.  Let’s take a look, beginning with todays surface forecast map that I just plotted, and then the tornado risk from the SPC, and then showing the severe weather outlooks for Wednesday and Thursday:

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This is the surface forecast map valid at 7 PM this evening.  The dashed black line showcases where storm chasers should be headed today.  This risk is not in our viewing area until the thunderstorms go through a transition and approach northwest Missouri well after midnight into early Wednesday morning.  The SPC has the tornado risk into northwest Missouri, so we will pay close attention later tonight, but it would be coming into our area after they have weakened a bit.

day1probotlk_1200_torn

The above map from the SPC shows the potential for strong tornadoes near the KS/NE border this evening, and this map below shows the risk for tomorrow:

day2otlk_0600

From the SPC:  Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central plains mid-day Wednesday through the overnight. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. This Day 2/Wednesday convective outlook presents a challenging forecast scenario, owing to the subtle nature of multiple impulses advancing across the Plains within a corridor of weakly anticyclonic flow.  Most guidance indicates this evolution will result from continued digging of the western US trough on Tuesday, with subsequent closed low development within the broader trough. In turn, rising heights over the Plains who’ll yield weak ridging aloft by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a front is forecast to extend from western Kansas to Wisconsin, while a dry line will be positioned from the front in Kansas south into Texas.  A weakening/veering low-level jet is expected to extend across eastern Kansas Wednesday morning. Through the late morning and afternoon, though, a low-level flow should back slightly ahead of a triple point over southern Kansas. In turn, increasing warm advection and convergence is expected to support convective initiation over parts of southern and central Kansas. Meanwhile, southerly flow will transport dew points in the mid-60s over the area, supporting moderate mixed-layer buoyancy by afternoon. Organized by southwesterly mid-level flow fo around 45-55 knots, severe cells should become severe, initially capable of large hail and damaging winds. Mode evolution, discrete cell potential, remains questionable with this earlier convection, as the orientation of the larger-scale pattern and resultant veered 700 mb flow may encourage straight hodographs, or perhaps one counter-clockwise curvature in mid-levels.  Therefore, storms may grow upscale into eastward-advancing linear segments, with damaging winds as the primary threat over parts of central/eastern Kansas. Concurrently, any higher tornado potential may not increase until late evening, as the low-levle jet increases, and convective bands potentially acquire embedded rotating elements.

Whew, what a discussion.  We are experiencing a unique set up. Every year is different, unique, and this set up has its own challenges for forecasters. We will know more in the next few hours. This morning band of thunderstorms was moving through as I was writing this, and now we will wait on the new data and continue our discussion on Weather2020s blog.

Here is the risk for Thursday, which has a much different look than Wednesday. We will be concerned with Thursday after we get past these next couple of days.

day3otlk_0730

St. Joseph, MO has had its driest beginning to any year in their recorded history.  Look at this very low total as May begins!

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We need the rain, but will it come with big thunderstorms? Go over to the Weather2020 blog:  Click here for the Weather2020 blog and we will continue our discussion over there as we share in this weather experience featuring the LRC.  Have a great day!

Gary

A Dry April Comes To An End

Good morning bloggers,

We are finishing up a dry April in Kansas City. Take a look at the rainfall stats:

Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 8.00.36 AM

The total is actually 5.60″ less than last year in April. Wow!  In our spring forecast, I predicted that we would be near or above average in May and June, so this means that we will get at least 10″ of rain by the end of June. We will need it as it is getting quite dry out there.  2.74″ below average would be much more glaring if it was a warm month, but it was one of the coldest Aprils on record. I believe we are coming in second or third coldest.

Severe Weather Risks:

day1otlk_1200Storm chasers from around the world have flown out, driven to, or somehow ended up in chase vehicles over the western plains states today.  These storm chasers are either by themselves, which we do not recommend, or with chase teams.  There will be, what is called, chaser convergence where any big thunderstorms develop.  One of the biggest dangers of storm chasing is not being killed by a tornado, but the driving dangers.  In recent years, storm chasers have been killed by tornadoes and in traffic accidents. So, this is a dangerous hobby for sure.  If you do go out, always have a driver with you that will concentrate on driving. And, then when it comes to tracking the super cell thunderstorms, make sure you keep your eye on the road and not the sky. Stop the car when you want to look at the storm structure.  And, obey the traffic laws.

The risks are challenging as this storm approaches the region.  Today, the risk is out west, but it will shift east towards KC in the next couple of days. It appears the risk will stay north of Kansas City until Wednesday.

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The risk on Tuesday is above, and the risk on Wednesday shows what is likely the best chance of severe weather near KC:

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From the Storm Prediction Center:  “There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms mainly from northwest Texas, across Oklahoma, Kansas, and northwestern Missouri.  Severe Thunderstorms are likely across a large part of the southern and central plains Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, with a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. The greatest threat area at this time appears to be from northwest Texas across Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.”

The set ups are still in motion, and there is a lot to discuss in the next few days. Right now, today will be calm near KC. How will Wednesday set up? More soon.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions, and join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day!

Gary

Tracking Thunderstorm Chances, One Day at a Time

Good Sunday bloggers,

This has been, so far, the nicest weekend since September 30-October 1. Today will be a bit different than Saturday. It will be slightly warmer, with a bit more wind and during the afternoon there will be more clouds and the chance for a brief shower. Then, we will turn our attention to the chance of severe thunderstorms Monday-Thursday. We will take it one day at a time as each day will have a different set up to some extent.

SUNDAY MORNING: There was a weak disturbance in central Kansas during the morning. This system will be located across eastern Kansas and western Missouri between 2 PM and 5 PM as it weakens. This means there will be more clouds with the chance of a sprinkle and/or brief shower. I would not cancel any outdoor plans.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: You can see the band of clouds with a few showers/sprinkles moving across the area with highs around 70°. The wind will be increasing from the southeast with gusts to 25-30 mph.

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SUNDAY EVENING: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be forming across the western Plains. A few thunderstorms may be severe, but Gulf moisture is limited, so this does not look like a big event. These thunderstorms will fall apart long before they would reach eastern Kansas.

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MONDAY: This is the day where the Gulf of Mexico moisture begins a trek north on south winds gusting to 35-45 mph. Highs will be around 80° around here and in the 80s across western Kansas. A few severe thunderstorms may form in the western Plains Monday evening.

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TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: This is where we have the juicy Gulf of Mexico moisture in place with a front stalled from northwest Kansas to Wisconsin. The front will be the main focus for heavy and severe thunderstorms. The data has been trending this to be closer to I-80 than I-70. There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms near the surface low and dry line.

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WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The triple point, where the cold front, dry line and warm/stationary front meet will be located over northwest Kansas. It looks like the biggest activity will be found across Nebraska and Iowa with scattered severe thunderstorms from the surface low south to along the dry line. The main upper level storm system will still be in the southwest USA, so the dry line and surface low are not moving much. If any thunderstorms form along the dry line, they could reach our area Wednesday night in a weakened state. And, just like Tuesday we will need to keep an eye on the location of the stationary front. As is, the main activity is north of our area.

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THURSDAY: This is, as it stands now, when the best chance for heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms occurs for eastern Kansas and Missouri. We need the rain, but the severe weather we can live with out.

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This is going to be an interesting week of weather and I would be shocked if the streak of zero tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma continues. We will take it one day at a time.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner