Quantcast

Rain Today, Then A Taste of Winter Later This Week

Good morning bloggers,

What am I writing about today?  Are you serious?  I am actually still writing about a chance of snow this week and a winter blast of cold?  Yes, I am, and it is far from etched in stone on what is going to happen.  Before we get to our chance of any snow later this week, there is a disturbance moving across this morning.  Jeff Penner discussed how we had three systems to track, a couple days ago. Last year Kansas City would swing and miss at storm one, swing and miss at storm two, and then swing and miss on storm #3 and we would strike out. This happened many times in the 2017-2018 LRC.  Well, something very different has already happened and multiple times.  Earlier in October, when this pattern began, we didn’t just not swing and miss, we hit a grand slam home run with 10 to 15 inches of rain in the area. Then, we seemed to struggle to get our next storm to produce, and yet, right before our eyes  they have been producing on some positive level.  We did receive a little bit of rain over the weekend from storm #1, and here is storm #2 today below, with potential storm #3 due in Thursday.

Radar as of 7 AM:

RAD_KTWX_N0R

There is a disturbance near Salina, KS and it is heading in this morning. It is producing this nice area of rain.  So, get the raincoats out this morning, and the umbrellas ready. This will move through and then move east of the area this afternoon. Our attention will then shift to this:

1

On this map, above, there is a ridge (the squiggly blue line I drew in). This ridge is a high amplitude ridge extending up to near the North Pole. There is also a wave of energy near Vancouver, Canada that we are monitoring closely.  If this wave of energy combines with new energy being generated around that big upper low over Canada, as it swings south, then conditions will become favorable for a cold precipitation event on Thursday afternoon and evening.

2

By noon Thursday, above, you can see this wave of energy looking decent as Kansas City goes into southwest flow aloft.  In the past few years this would end up weaker and more phased into the flow, and the cold air would take over and we would get no snow in KC.  So, it is something to continue monitoring.  However, the way this 2018-2019 LRC has been setting up, this type of wave has been strengthening a bit as it approaches the KS/MO border, so this means I lean towards the precipitation event happening on Thursday. There will be other questions that need to be answered if this continues to show up, such as timing, possible amounts, and possible impacts?

3

The FV3-GFS model shows this result valid at 6 PM Thursday. The Euro and other models are coming into line with this as well.  We still need to monitor the trends on the models today and by tomorrow as within 24 hours our confidence will grow just a bit on what may happen. Remember, the sun sets now closer to 5 PM, so if this map above is at all accurate, then the snow may be falling after sunset which provides a better chance of snowfall accumulation.   This map below shows one potential snowfall map, that seems to make sense, of 1 to 2 inches near KC.  This would be an incredible development for November in KC.

4

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of rain this morning. Cloudy and cool with rain ending this afternoon.  0.10″ to 0.50″ possible today.  High:  50°
  • Tonight:  Clearing and cold. Low:  37°
  • Tuesday:  Sunny, then increasing clouds with a 50% chance of a few showers late.  High:  57°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and colder. High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Becoming cloudy with a 70% chance of a mixture of precipitation, changing to snow.  Some accumulation is possible during the early evening.  High:  37°

How about those KC Chiefs! They are now 8-1, and we have New England and the Chargers on our heals.  Big weeks ahead!  Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation: Weather2020 Blog

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

One System Down, Two to Go

Good Sunday bloggers,

We continue to track three storm systems. The first one will exit today, but not before we have drizzle and a few showers this morning. The second system will affect Monday and the third system will affect Thursday. This third system is most interesting.

You can see all three systems on the satellite.

1

This first system extends north-south about 1150 miles from Lake Superior to south Texas. We are on the southwest side of the main system and we are seeing drizzle and a few showers rotating into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

2

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be gone as the clouds linger. It will be breezy from the west at 10-20 mph with temperatures in the 40s.

3

MONDAY MORNING: Storm system #2 will already have an effect as areas of light to moderate rain move in from the west. This rain may very well affect the morning rush hour. Lows will be 40°-45°.

4

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Drizzle and scattered showers will linger with highs stuck in the 40s. We are expecting a new .10″ to .25″ with this system. A few locations may see .25″ to .50″. This system is a fast mover and will exit by Election Day.

5

ELECTION DAY MORNING: It will be mostly clear and dry with lows 35°-40°. The wind will be west at 5-15 mph.

6

ELECTION DAY AFTERNOON: We will have great voting weather with highs in the 50s, a west wind 5-15 mph and areas of high clouds.

7

Now we turn our attention to Thursday and storm system #3. We are going to show two different solutions and actually this first one is in the minority.

It will be cold enough to support snow Thursday. So, the questions are, “will there be a storm system to generate snow?” And, if there is a storm system, “where will it track?” All the data seems to have the storm system. But there are varying opinions on the track.

This solution has  a smaller system that tracks south of I-70.

8

This solution has a much bigger storm system and widespread snow as you can see. It is this second solution that is actually in the majority. It is four days out and still so much can change. Stay Tuned!

9

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

 

Tracking Three Storm Systems

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are going into an active pattern the next seven days and we are tracking three storm systems. Let’s take them one at a time.

STORM SYSTEM #1: Today and Sunday

There will be scattered showers today, mostly northwest of KC. Then, as the main system arrives this evening we will see a band of widespread rain and a few thunderstorms rapidly form across eastern Kansas. This band will track east tonight, affecting our area mostly between 6 PM and midnight. Some of the rain may be rather heavy at times. After midnight the rain will shift to the east.

1

Sunday will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool with perhaps a few morning showers. The sky will clear after 4-5 PM, but remember, the sun will set at 5:14 PM as we turn the clocks back one hour tonight. So, we will not see much sun. Also, check the fire alarm batteries tonight.

2

STORM SYSTEM #2: This will move through Monday with more rain and temperatures in the 40s. The rain will exit Monday night, so Election day is looking dry and breezy with highs around 50°.

3

RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: When you add up the rain between the two storm systems, most locations will see .50″ to 1.00″ of rain. There will be some areas that see 1.00″-1.50″, especially in Missouri.

4

STORM SYSTEM #3: There are many questions with this storm system. The latest data has most of the rain and snow south of I-70. It does look like there will be enough cold air for snow, but where will the storm track? Will it even be much of a storm system? These are questions that we have much time to answer.

5

Now, just to be safe. You should enter the Snowflake contest ASAP. When will the first one inch of snow occur at the 41 Action News studio as measured by one of our meteorologists?

6

Here is another reminder to set the clocks back one hour tonight. It is also good to change the fire alarm batteries as well.

7

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Is That Cold Air I See Building Up?

Good morning bloggers,

Anticipation of the signs of winter weather is growing as we move through this month. Kansas City averages about 1″ of snow during the month of November.  The largest snowstorm in KC November records has been 9″, so it can happen at this time of the year.  It also can happen in October, as we learned October 22, 1996 when up to 8 inches of snow fell.  The problem is, we haven’t had much snow in many years and it would almost be shocking to our weather minds if anything more than 2″ was in the forecast.  Okay, hang on. I must have snow on my mind.  Here are the October stats:

1

What a month we just had.  It was 91 degrees and 26 degrees 13 days apart.  We had the earliest measurable snowfall in KC history when 0.2″ fell at KCI Airport.  I only saw a few wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain on the Plaza.  And, the big second week of the month, and yes in this years LRC, where so much rain fell placing us with over 7 inches of rain above average. This rain wiped out what was left of the drought conditions.

So, we move on into November, and cold air is now building up over the high latitudes.  Take a look.

gfs_T2m_nhem_20

This map above shows the temperature forecast valid at 6 AM Tuesday.  Two pockets of very cold Arctic air is forecast to build up, one over Greenland, and the second over Siberia.  The pattern is supportive for this to build stronger into the middle of next week due to a big ridge forming aloft over eastern Alaska and western Canada. We will look deeper into this developing pattern in the next few blog entries.  And, yes, some models have started to show snow close to Kansas City.

There are a few showers this morning associated with a weak storm system, and then a second fast moving weak storm may bring some rain Saturday evening.  This will be followed by a potentially stronger storm early next week.  A lot to discuss.

Thank  you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

A Video Blog Today

Good afternoon bloggers,

The weather pattern seemed to just get a bit more exciting today.  The past few days, the models have been really not energizing these weak storm systems at all, and there was a trend on all models for the systems to be a bit stronger.  There are four systems showing up on most of the models, beginning with tomorrow mornings fast moving system.  The next two weeks are still a strongly developmental period of the LRC, so it is just as important as the past four weeks.  I will not make any conclusions yet, and a lot of things are being analyzed as we prepare for our winter forecast.

Here is today’s Video Blog:

Video Blog November 1 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

 

Gary

The Changing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

A unique pattern is setting up right before our eyes and it is likely about half way to becoming set for the season.  It is still evolving. Let’s take a look:

1This map on the left shows the 500 mb flow valid today around 1 PM.  There is a negatively tilted trough in the middle of the nation centered near Kansas City. This system has been carved out by a series of many waves. It should not have stayed so dry yesterday, and yet it did stay dry in KC.  I only saw a few drops of rain.  This storm will produce some significant severe weather today, however, and due south of Kansas City.  More on this severe weather risk in just a second.  There is ridging near the west coast, and California has been very dry at the beginning of this years pattern, which is a concern despite a developing El Niño event.

Look at what happens next as you can see on the right.

2This next map shows the 500 mb map valid at midnight next Tuesday morning.  I made a mistake when I typed in the 1 AM Tuesday, as there will have been the time change by then, and we gain an extra hour. Even better, we get to see the new data an hour earlier for the next five months.  What are we seeing on this map?  Another negatively tilted trough centered near KC.  This should be, and likely will become a rather strong storm system.  Yet, as it is passing be KC, what will it produce.  This is an indication of an anchor trough, and may be a good indication for KC this winter.  These two maps show similar troughs around five days apart.

Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 7.22.48 AM

In the last 30 days, it has been quite wet over Kansas, western Oklahoma, and Texas, which is very different from last year, as the wet areas now, are right over the strongest drought region from this past year.

El Niño:

Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 7.22.11 AM

El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and it warmed dramatically in the past week.  How strong will this phenomenon become this winter? The models all suggest it will be a weak El Niño, and yet it just strengthened to 1.1°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region.  This will be a factor this winter as well.

Today’s Weather: 

day1otlk_1200

day1probotlk_1200_torn

There is a rather significant tornado risk today, centered over Louisiana. This system is about to produce significant severe weather as there is an enhanced slight risk from southeastern Texas to western Mississippi.  Let’s monitor this closely later today. There is also snow over New Mexico and Colorado.

Screen Shot 2018-10-31 at 7.41.51 AM

So, this storm system is producing all around KC today.  We are near the middle of the storm trough aloft.  So, just because this cycle didn’t produce a major storm here, it doesn’t mean this same part of the pattern will do the exact same thing next time.  In the next cycle there will be much colder air available and I am expecting a stronger storm system that would impact our area a bit more.

Happy Halloween. Trick or Treat!  We will have periods of clouds in KC, a very slight chance of a shower, and a mild day with highs in the 50s.  Have a safe day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Close To Eleven Inches Of Rain This Month

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City is close to having an eleven inches of rain during this month of October.  A few spots have had over 15 inches of rain within the KC metro area.

3

A storm system is developing this morning and rain will begin to form soon.  A surface cyclone has been tracking across southern Kansas overnight into early this morning, and a warm front, or really a stationary front is located north and west of KC. It will become a cold front and surge southeast later today. While these surface conditions change, rain will develop, increase, and then shift southeast out of the area.  Here is a look at this mornings surface map:

1

Kansas City is on the warm side of this warm front that has set up to the northwest of the city.  This front will begin moving southeast in a few hours in response to this developing weak storm system.  When it begins moving southeast, it will become a cold front and cooler air will arrive later today. It was in the 60s this morning as of 7 AM, and before sunrise.  There was a bit of a red sky this morning, so “red sky in the morning, sailor take warning” will apply. The clouds were thin and high, cirrus clouds, this morning.  Low clouds will be forming as moisture increases from the south and we get some lifting from this upper level disturbance.  By later this morning into early this afternoon an area of rain will be increasing over KC, at least this is what I am expecting as there was nothing at all on radar when I was writing this blog entry.

2

This is an interesting little setup over the next five days.  There is a fast moving system that will drop overhead Thursday night into early Friday with a chance of showers, and then a stronger system will likely track by over the weekend, with another system early next week.  The pattern is becoming quite progressive and fast moving, and the models look different every day.  The LRC is in the middle of its setting up period, and we have a lot more pattern to monitor before making any conclusions.  Here is a surface forecast map valid Saturday night.  Note:  Saturday night is the time change where we fall back one hour, and gain an hour.  This map shows a spinning area of rain and snow to our north, mostly rain, however, that would move across KC in a band Saturday night.

1

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Thickening clouds with rain increasing. The rain will develop overhead, and then end from the northwest later today. The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop this evening. High:  64°
  • Tonight: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers.  Low:  47°
  • Wednesday (Halloween):  Trick or treat!  It looks spooky nice with a cloudy sky and a slight chance of showers.  High:  55°

Thank you for voting KSHB-TV as the best local TV station, and I won a couple of categories too, so thank you very much.  I did lose Best Local Personality to a cat, however.

Best Of KC

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

Another Great Weather Day In KC

Good morning bloggers,

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos yesterday on a great Sunday afternoon. The weather this past weekend was about as perfect as is possible at this time of the year.  It was 72 degrees Saturday and 66 degrees Sunday at KCI Airport.  And, today, will be just as nice with a forecast high of 72°.  I just took Sunny The Weather Dog out for a walk and it was calm and a bit cool.  Yesterday, I took a walk with Sunny at Loose Park and found this incredible tree and Sunny posed for this picture:

4

So, what is going on with this weather pattern?  It is still evolving and making conclusions now on what will happen this winter are way too early.  Just look at what happened since this weather pattern began earlier this month:

Screen Shot 2018-10-29 at 7.36.20 AM

It has been a wet month of October, anyway you look at it. Over ten inches of rain, and some spots had over 15 inches of rain from that wet system just as the new LRC was setting up.  So, hang on as we learn a lot more in the next few weeks.

How about those KC Chiefs. And, it is Baker Mayfield vs. Patrick Mahomes week. Did you know that Patrick Mahomes set the NCAA record for most yards by an individual player two years ago when Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma 66-59?  Baker Mayfield through for seven touchdowns in that game, and Patrick Mahomes combined running and passing yards totaled 819 yards. WOW! He through for 734 yards, which actually fell short of the NCAA record by 2 yards.  It was incredible:  Mahomes vs. Mayfield record day

Have a great day!

Gary

A Front and Storm System

Good Sunday bloggers,

A cold front moved through last night and we had a few rain showers around 3 AM. The rest of the day will be sunny with decreasing wind, which means great weather for the two big sport events. We have the Chiefs starting at noon and then Sporting KC begins at 330 PM.

8 6

TODAY: A surface high pressure will approach from the west, and this will allow the wind to decrease through the afternoon.

1

Highs will be in the mid 60s with the wind dropping to 5-15 mph from the northwest. The temperature at noon, for the Chiefs kickoff, will be around 60°.

2

MONDAY: It will be a very nice day. Lows will be 40°-45° with a light wind. The wind will increase to 10-25 mph from the south during the afternoon along with abundant sunshine and highs around 70°.

3

TUESDAY: This is the day we see some changes. A cold front will move in from the northwest. Showers and drizzle will form along and behind the front from eastern Kansas to the Great Lakes. We may see a trace to .25″ of rain with highs in the 60s. Temperatures will likely fall to the 50s during the afternoon as the cooler air arrives.

4

HALLOWEEN: The front tracks south and links up with a storm system coming in from the Rockies. This will create a large area of rain and thunderstorms well south of our area. So, this means it is looking dry and cool for trick or treating. There is now just a 10% chance we see rain Wednesday evening. The trend of the rain farther south has continued today.

5

TRICK OR TREATING FORECAST: The wind will be north at 5-15 mph which means pretty good candy gathering weather.

7

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Fantastic Fall Weather, then a Change

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for some great weather this weekend as a major storm affects New England and a smaller system tracks southeast out of the northern Rockies. This smaller system will have a minor impact on our weather.

A front and storm system will affect the weather Tuesday and Halloween, so let’s go day by day.

The big storm in the northeast is due in part to the remnants of hurricane Willa that impacted the southwestern Mexican coast last Tuesday.

1

There is a smaller storm system in the northern Rockies. This system will track into the Great Lakes on Sunday, having a minor impact on our weather.

2

SATURDAY: It will be near perfect with highs around 70°, The wind will be from the west and southwest at 5-15 mph, a good day to do the leaves. But, is it ever a good day to do the leaves?

3

SUNDAY MORNING: The storm system from the northern Rockies will be tracking through the Great Lakes with rain in Packer and Bear country. Here in Chiefs country it will be sunny and windy with temperatures warming to around 60° by noon. So, for tailgating it will be dry, mild, but windy.

4

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The system will be exiting the Great Lakes as a surface high pressure moves in. This will allow the wind to decrease during the afternoon with highs in the 60s, super Sunday weather!

8

MONDAY: The work week will start with very nice weather. As we wait for a front and storm system.

5

TUESDAY: A cold front will move in and this will generate a band of showers and a few thunderstorms from KC east. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

6

HALLOWEEN: We are tracking a storm system from the Rockies. The latest data has trended towards the system staying south and going around our area. This would mean cloudy, dry and in the 40s for trick or treating. At this time there is a 30% chance the storm tracks far enough north to make it rainy for trick or treating.

I have trick or treated in all kinds of weather in KC over the last four decades, and rain is my least favorite.  Warm and humid is my second least favorite.

We will know more tomorrow as let’s see how the data trends.

7

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner