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The Next Two Weeks Will Be Quite Active In Tornado Alley

Good morning bloggers,

Severe weather risks and flooding risks will be increasing again in the next seven days, and it will be quite active for the next two weeks.  The weather pattern is cycling with the LRC describing the order to what many think is just chaos. It is anything but chaos, as we have been sharing with you for two decades now.  If you just go back and look at the blog, you will find this part of the pattern approaching as being quite active.  It was more on the winter side in previous cycles, and this time it is going to be more like spring, which means an increasing risk of severe weather.  From the SPC this morning:  “An active stretch for severe weather will occur during the entire day 4 to 8 period, mainly over the central and southern plains“.

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This map, valid Saturday evening, shows the blocked up weather pattern forcing some rather fascinating things to happen near the surface.  This map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us valid 7 PM Saturday night. There is blocking in the form of upper level highs closing off over Canada north to near the North Pole.  This is resulting in forcing the jet stream to be much farther south than normal near the California coast.  There is a lead upper level storm that is modeled to be moving out into the plains Saturday night, and there is a ridge over the eastern states which will help warm them up significantly.

f5weather-29

What is this?  30″ of snow in mid to late May will be a very rare weather event for the Sierra Nevada. Oh, it snows in May and June up at higher elevations almost every year, but 30″ of snow, maybe 40″ of snow?  Now, that will be interesting to see happen.  And, look at what is forecast at lower elevations:

f5weather-28

This is the European Model, above, showing a precipitation total forecast for the next ten days.  Kansas City is in the 2 to 6 inch range with just as much forecast over California. The rainy season ends in April out west in most years, but this will be an incredibly wet weather pattern for California with the jet stream forecast to be forced farther south by the blocking.  And, look how wet it is forecast to be over Montana and the Dakota’s. Something to monitor closely is the amount of rain falling near the Missouri River upstream from Kansas City.  That is a lot of water predicted in these next ten days and the river will rise if this indeed does happen.

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The first severe weather risk will set up Friday into Saturday.  This map above shows one possible solution for Saturday. It is still too early to lay out a severe weather risk, but there will be one setting up over the central and southern plains, and this is just the lead storm. That energy over the Pacific will be heading out over the Rockies and plains states next week.

Today:

day1otlk_1200

The SPC put this little marginal risk for today.  There is a little warm front forming, and I need to do a bit more analysis to see if there is any chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon or evening. There is a weak disturbance moving overhead tonight.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation!  Have a great day!

Gary

A Warm Up Will Eventually Lead Into Increased Severe Weather Risks

Good morning bloggers,

KCI Airport has now had 3.59″ of rain this month, and we are just getting to the part of the pattern that is more likely to produce the potential severe weather set-ups across traditional tornado alley.  The first strong set up for severe weather will most likely happen around Saturday.  We will go in-depth as it gets a bit closer.

Finally, a big warm-up:

namconus_T2m_us_40

It has been a cool first half of May, and this is about to change, and big time.  The map above shows a prediction of temperatures at 4 PM central time Tuesday.  The 80s will be surging north all the way to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  The humidity will be on the rise too, and then we will be setting the stage for some thunderstorms.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_11

As you cans see above, a rather big ridge is forming and moving out over the Rocky Mountains and out over the plains states this week. The models have been making horrible errors in showing some of these ridges growing and stopping the flow, or blocking the flow and it was causing panic in some storm chasers a few days ago. There is little chance of what they call “the ridge of death” as it causes severe weather season to go dormant. Well, in this year’s LRC, we know better, and…….

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with a high near67°.  Expect light winds and just a bit cool this afternoon.
  • Tonight: There will be a light southeast breeze at around 5 mph. Low:  55°
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny with light winds.  It will be nearly perfect outside and comfortable with a high of 77°  There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  • Wednesday:  After a possible early morning thunderstorm, expect mostly sunny and breezy conditions to develop.  It will be warmer with south winds 10-20 mph.  High:  83°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer.  South to southwest winds 10-25 mph.  High:  86°

The storm to watch this week:

This is one of many solutions valid at 7 PM Saturday evening.  The FV3-GFS is modeling a very strong surface cyclone over Kansas by Saturday evening:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

If this is at all correct, and it fits the LRC better than the operational GFS model, then we will have the potential for significant severe weather over tornado alley by Friday or Saturday.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC which describes the Order In Chaos, published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine.  If you have any questions, or would like to join the conversation, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the discussion.  We will be moderating the blog to make sure it is an enjoyable experience for everyone reading!

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

Scattered Rain for Mother’s Day

Happy Mother’s day,

We are tracking a weak to moderate storm system that will bring scattered showers and a few T-Storms through the day. The driest hours of the day in the KC area will be breakfast-brunch, 8-11 AM. After today, the weather pattern will be a bit calmer, but not dry.  We will go through the week ahead as well.

The storm system was centered in northern Nebraska as of 6:45 AM. Two waves of rain are rotating ahead of the system. The first wave moved through early this morning and is weakening. The second wave was entering northwest Missouri by 7 AM. This will wave will drop southeast towards I-70 later this morning. The storm system will track southeast into northern Missouri this afternoon. So, the area of weather in eastern Nebraska will be across eastern Kansas and western Missouri from about 12 to 7 PM. The showers and T-Storms will increase in coverage as this area moves southeast.

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MOTHER’S DAY 12-7 PM: We will see scattered showers and T-Storms with a few heavy downpours. There may be some small hail in a few of the T-Storms. Highs will be mostly in the 50s, but some locations may touch 60° in between the rain. Topeka to Pleasanton south and west have the best chance to see highs in the low 60s. Total rainfall will be trace to .50″.

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MOTHER’S DAY 7-10 PM: The rain will end quickly with temperatures in the 50s.

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MONDAY MORNING: Lows will drop to the upper 30s and low 40s. Areas of fog are possible due to a light wind and all of the moisture around. There is a chance some of the fog becomes dense.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The fog and low clouds will burn off, becoming puffy cumulus clouds. It will be a nice May day with highs near 70° and a light wind.

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TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A few showers and T-Storms will be possible Tuesday, but the best chance will occur at night. This will be due to a disturbance and weak front tracking in from the northwest. Some of these T-Storms may produce very heavy rain, but it is not a big storm and will move along. The rain should end early Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for a T-Storm Wednesday as the weak front lingers.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A few T-Storms will be possible early Thursday as a warm front surges north. Otherwise, these days will be partly to mostly sunny, windy, very warm and humid with highs in the 80s. New T-Storms arrive next weekend and these could be severe.

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So, after today, there is one main rain chance the next 5 days. This is quite a bit less than the last two 5 day periods. This will allow for some drying. That being said, the pattern is still a wet one during the wettest time of year. It will be hard to have a long stretch of dry weather in the coming days and weeks.

Happy Mother’s day and have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Two Systems for Mother’s Day Weekend

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking two storm systems for this weekend. We are not expecting flash flooding or severe weather. The first system is now moving through Kansas and Missouri and will exit this afternoon. The second is now in the northern Plains. This system will track southeast and move through during Mother’s day.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Our system from the morning will be long gone. Clouds will be left as highs reach 55° to 60°. The next system will already be bringing showers and thunderstorms to Nebraska, northwest Kansas and northwest Iowa.

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MOTHER’S DAY MORNING: A band of scattered showers will be moving through with lows around 50.

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MOTHER’S DAY AROUND NOON: There may be a few dry hours after the early morning showers. Then, around noon there will be new showers and possibly a thunderstorm as highs climb to 60°-65°.

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MOTHER’S DAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The main system will be twirling by and there will likely be an increase in the coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will drop to the 50s in rain areas.

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MONDAY: The system from Sunday exits, making for a nice Monday with highs 65°-70°. The morning may start with low clouds and some fog.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEKEND: When you add up both storm systems, rainfall totals will reach .10″ to 1″. So, there will not be any flash flooding or severe weather.

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MOTHER’S DAY: At this time it looks like the best times for rain will be early in the morning and after noon. Highs will reach 60°-65°, but in rain areas temperatures will drop to the 50s. So, temperatures tomorrow may be up and down depending on where and when it is raining.

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Tuesday through Friday will see calmer and warmer weather with highs mostly 75° to 80°. The one main rain chance is later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Happy Mother’s Day and have a great weekend.,

Jeff Penner

A Colder May Day

Good morning bloggers,

Has this weather worn anyone out?  The wet weather pattern continues, and it is about to take a break.  Kansas City has not even been a direct target from one of these storm systems.  There have been a few spots in Kansas that have had 10 inches of rain in the past couple of weeks.  Did you know it has rained 11 of the past 12 days, and it likely is going to rain again today?

Rainfall totals as of 10 PM last night:

Add 0.56″ to these totals from last nights thunderstorms and rain that came through around 10 PM to midnight.  So, this is now 5.96″in the past 12 days at KCI Airport, and 2.97″so far in May.

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Here are the past dozen wet days:

  • April 27: Trace
  • April 28:  0.27″
  • April 29: 0.70″
  • April 30: 2.02″
  • May 1:   0.09″
  • May 2: 0.23″
  • May 3:  0.04″
  • May 4:  DRY
  • May 5:  Trace
  • May 6:  0.79″
  • May 7:  0.69″
  •  May 8:  1.14″

Colder air is now moving in, and as discussed yesterday, it is perfectly on the LRC cycle to be the coldest day of the month.  It likely will be as temperatures have dropped into the 40s.  A disturbance is moving our way and there may be a few light rain showers today.  There is also a chance of light rain on Saturday which could affect the race activities at the Kansas Speedway.

Here Is Another Amazing Statistic Of The Day: 

In the first half of May last year, it was in the 80s 12 of the 15 days, with the other three days 78, 78, and 79.  Compare that to this year’s first nine days of the month, and what is in the forecast for the next few days, and it is strikingly colder.  The warmest temperature has been 78° and it may touch 80° by the 15th of the month.  I will work on a graphic to show the side by side comparison!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great Thursday!

Gary

here have been a few spots in Kansas that have had 10 inches of rain in the past couple of weeks.  Did you know it has rained 11 of the past 12 days, and it likely is going to rain again today?

Rainfall totals as of 10 PM last night:

Add 0.56″ to these totals from last nights thunderstorms and rain that came through around 10 PM to midnight.  So, this is now 5.96″ in the past 12 days at KCI Airport, and 2.97″ so far in May.

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Here are the past dozen wet days:

  • April 27:  Trace
  • April 28:  0.27″
  • April 29:  0.70″
  • April 30:  2.02″
  • May 1:   0.09″
  • May 2:  0.23″
  • May 3:  0.04″
  • May 4:  DRY
  • May 5:  Trace
  • May 6:  0.79″
  • May 7:  0.69″
  •  May 8:  1.14″

Colder air is now moving in, and as discussed yesterday, it is perfectly on the LRC cycle to be the coldest day of the month.  It likely will be as temperatures have dropped into the 40s.  A disturbance is moving our way and there may be a few light rain showers today.  There is also a chance of light rain on Saturday which could affect the race activities at the Kansas Speedway.

Here Is Another Amazing Statistic Of The Day: 

In the first half of May last year, it was in the 80s 12 of the 15 days, with the other three days 78, 78, and 79.  Compare that to this year’s first nine days of the month, and what is in the forecast for the next few days, and it is strikingly colder.  The warmest temperature has been 78° and it may touch 80° by the 15th of the month.  I will work on a graphic to show the side by side comparison!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great Thursday!

Gary

A Cooler Stormy Pattern Continues

Good morning,

Screen Shot 2019-04-28 at 5.05.06 PM

The LRC describes the order in chaos!  This graphic is from the article in the recent Meteorological International Technology Magazine which showcased the accurate predictions of Tropical Storm Gordon, Major Hurricanes Michael, Florence, and Harvey and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  In the article, the relationship between Super Storm Sandy and the El Reno and Moore, OK Tornado disasters of 2013 are also highlighted.  These are just a few of the accurate predictions made by Weather2020, LLC over the past few years.

The coldest part of this year’s LRC:

The part of the pattern that produced the coldest air this season is cycling through right now.  A brutally cold air mass developed in this part of the LRC in January.  Chicago had one of the coldest days in its recorded history on January 30, 2019 when the high temperature was 10 degrees below zero, and the low temperature was 23 degrees below zero.  The next day, on the last day of January it was 21 degrees below zero with a high of 1 degree.  That was 98 days ago, and as many of you who have been following this blog know that 98 days is perfectly on cycle to return right now.  Yesterday, it was 50 degrees in Chicago, well below the average high of 67 degrees.

The coldest temperature of this years pattern in Kansas City happened on January 30th, or exactly two cycles ago.  And, right on schedule we have a cold front coming through tonight and Thursday with tomorrow likely to be way below average again.  It was -6° in late January, and Thursday appears it will have a very cool May day with highs in the lower to middle 50s.  The storm system responsible for this part of the pattern is going to split in half with part of the storm dropping southwest, and the other part moving out into the plains.

Today’s Weather Pattern

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The storm impacting the plains this morning produced a huge area of rain and thunderstorms, some severe weather, flooding, and a developing cold air mass.  As  you can see above, the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us, shows a few important features that exist right now.  There is a blocking upper high over southern Greenland, and is has forced a seasonal difference with this storm in the flow.  A storm similar to this one existed in all previous cycles (we are currently in the fifth LRC cycle).  This time, however, it is being forced out into the plains, and it is breaking into many pieces. The seasonal difference was predicted by the meteorologists at Weather2020 to produce severe weather this week and flooding, a prediction made weeks ago. Take a look at what happens next.

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By early Thursday morning, the blocking high is breaking down, and the storm is now in at least four big pieces as shown above, and then look at what happens by Friday morning below:

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By Friday, the blocking high has turned into a high amplitude ridge, and there is a second high amplitude ridge off the west coast extending over Alaska.  A new storm develops over the southwest, and this storm needs to be watched closely for this weekend and next week as it will provide some weather forecast problems.

Severe Weather & Flooding Risk Today:

4:30 AM Radar:

Screen Shot 2019-05-08 at 4.24.38 AM

This was the radar image from early this morning. There were thunderstorms active with lightning and very heavy rain moving into KC.  Flooding is a threat in the usual spots this morning.  There is a slight risk of severe weather over a large area today, with an enhanced slight risk farther south.

day1otlk_1200

And, here is the updated risk:

day1otlk_1300

The huge area of rain last night has impacted the decision from the SPC, and as you can see, the risk of severe weather has been taken out for our entire area.  I still say we need to monitor this closely, as we will get the sunshine and warmer air in here as a result of this.

Much colder air will arrive tonight in the wake of this lead system moving into the Great Lakes. Look at the snow over parts of Colorado that may sneak into western Kansas, and also over Minnesota.  We are moving into mid-May and we are talking snow, and well of course we are as this is the coldest part of this years LRC:

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Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great day!

Gary

The Wet Pattern Continues

Good morning bloggers,

The weather we experienced yesterday produced some rather great moments to see natural art in the sky.  KSHB-TV Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily snapped this picture from down west of Ottawa, KS late yesterday afternoon:

D57LB4BXkAIEntl.jpg-large

The structure of this storm was similar to other weaker thunderstorms closer to KC as you can see below near Overland Park, KS:

D57P8v4W4AAVgSi.jpg-large

Look at all of those layers as this non severe thunderstorm tracked across areas of the KC metro.  And, then look at this incredible picture taken by Travis in Desoto, KS.  He tweeted this picture out capturing the double rainbow and lightning forking out across the sky:

D57ssu7WAAAoxnv.jpg-large

What is going on with this current pattern?  The weather pattern continues to cycle perfectly according to the LRC, and it is being influenced by some blocking that has developed in early May near Greenland.  There is an upper level storm near Yuma, AZ this morning, and this energy will be ejected out into the plains during the next two days:

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As this storm ejects out, severe weather, bands of heavy thunderstorms, complexes of thunderstorms, and cold rain and snow will be forming over the plains and southern Rocky Mountains.  The risks of severe weather and the location of the highest flooding risks will still depend on how the surface pattern sets up.  The surface pattern has been influenced by all of the rain and thunderstorms and here was a quick analysis I plotted from 7:30 AM this morning:

surfa

The risk today is now upgraded to a moderate risk over the Texas Panhandle extending into western Oklahoma:

day1otlk_1200

Here in Kansas City, we will monitor where these thunderstorms develop today. Since tonights activity will be associated with that upper low kicking out, the thunderstorms will more likely hold together as they move into eastern Kansas later tonight into early Wednesday.  Wednesday’s risk of severe weather will then be influenced by how extensive the thunderstorms will be tonight into early in the day tomorrow.  Most of the models have KC in south winds on Wednesday afternoon with a dewpoint surge into the middle to upper 60s.  The front would then move across around 10 PM Wednesday evening, and we will have to watch this closely. Only one model, the NAM model does not do this, and this model shifts the winds to the northwest earlier on Wednesday.  Since it is the only model to do that, I lean against that solution.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms tapering off later this morning. High:  64°
  • Tonight:  Rain and thunderstorms developing west and moving in later tonight into early Wednesday:  Low:  61°
  • Wednesday-Wednesday night:  Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms.  A few severe thunderstorms are possible during the evening if that front lines up west of KC.  High:  74°
  • Thursday:  Mostly cloudy and much cooler with a chance of drizzle or showers.  High: 55°

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Severe Weather & Flooding Risks The Next Three Days

Good morning bloggers,

An active weather pattern continues with the risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding increasing the next three days.  The set up for Wednesday is the most menacing at the moment, and as usual the thunderstorms that form the next couple of days will likely influence where the risks will be located.  Flooding is also a rather significant risk and there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for tonight.

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There is a stalled front currently located near the Iowa/Missouri and the Nebraska/Kansas borders.  This front is barely moving and will be the likely focus to where thunderstorms form later this afternoon and evening. As you can see above, this front is being modeled to be located north and west of KC, and this is in a position that will place the KC metro area in the Flash Flooding risk for later tonight.  1″ to 5″ of rain is likely tonight into Tuesday, and then an additional 1″ to 5″ of rain is possible on Wednesday with the main storm system.  This map below shows the RGEM rainfall prediction for the lead system, ahead of the main storm:

rgem_apcpn_scus_48

The pink to purple shade shows the 2″ to 5″ potential centered near KC.  There are severe weather risks as well:

day1otlk_1200

Tonight’s risk is shown above, and the risk for Tuesday shifts south and west on Tuesday:

day2otlk_0600

The more significant risk is most likely on Wednesday. This is when there may be the set up for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms.  The enhanced slight risk will potentially end up farther north and closer to KC depending on the earlier thunderstorms on Wednesday morning.

day3otlk_0730

The enhanced slight risk shown above will likely be increased to a moderate risk by Wednesday.  Here is the surface set up:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11

The set up shown above, is one that seems to be unaffected by morning thunderstorms.  As we often experience near Kansas City, the morning thunderstorms often change everything and risks that look significant change very fast. So, we will be monitoring this closely.  The models have been trending in the direction of the above solution, and if this is close to being accurate, this is a rather impressive surface set up for significant severe weather over parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.  The storm in the upper levels is looking like it is strong enough to force the stronger surface low as shown.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_8

We will discuss this Wednesday set up a bit more tomorrow.  Let’s monitor today’s front and thunderstorm development first.  The thunderstorms that initially form this evening will have the best potential to be strong to severe, and then we will be looking at a large complex of thunderstorms evolving leading to the heavy rain event overnight.

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here,  Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

 

A Second Straight Active Week of Weather

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are tracking upper level disturbances today and tonight. Then, we are tracking a cold front, series of disturbances and a main storm system Monday through Thursday. These weather features will combine to bring our area a second straight week of active weather. Flash flooding will be the main threat with some severe weather possible as well.

SUNDAY: There is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as weak disturbances drift across the Plains. Highs will be 70°-75°. Overall, it will be a nice Spring day.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: Another disturbance will track in from the west-northwest and this will bring a bigger area of rain and thunderstorms. This round may track just west, but it certainly has a chance to cover all areas as Gulf of Mexico moisture increases overnight. If you plan to head to the Sporting KC match that starts at 8 PM, the weather looks good. The rain should hold off until after 9-10 PM.

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MONDAY: The round of rain and thunderstorms from later tonight will exit early Monday. The rest of Monday will be mostly dry until later in the afternoon and evening. It is at this time when a slow-moving cold front arrives from the northwest. This front will sag slowly south as a series of upper level disturbances track along it from the west and southwest. This is a recipe for several rounds of rain and thunderstorms Monday night. Highs will be in the low 70s.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The front will be sagging south with more rain and thunderstorms along, ahead and behind the front. Lows will be in the 50s.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: The front stalls to our south, putting our region in the colder air. So, highs may get stuck in the 50s. This keeps the severe weather threat low with the flash flooding threat high. More rounds of rain and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night as more disturbances track along the front.

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WEDNESDAY: A main storm system will come out of the southwest USA. This will generate many areas of rain and thunderstorms. This is going to cause a high flash flood threat. What about severe weather? This will depend on where the warmer air is located. Right now it looks like southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, south. We will have to watch this closely.

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THURSDAY: The main storm pulls away and any rain should exit early with highs in the 50s, maybe even 40s. Friday into next weekend look drier with highs in the 60s and 70s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEK: 1″ to 5″ of rain is likely over the middle of the USA. May and June are the wettest months of the year, so having a wet week is not unusual. What makes this different is that this wet week has been preceded by countless wet weeks and the rivers are over flood stage with a saturated ground.

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Our viewing area is looking at a widespread 2″ to 4″ of rain. A few locations may see 4″ to 6″ of rain if training echoes (thunderstorms repeating over the same location) set up in a particular area. You can get rainfall rates of 1″ to 2″ per hour in the thunderstorms.

“TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” It only takes 6 inches of flowing water to float and SUV.

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It’s Cinco de Mayo, please don’t drink and drive.

Have a great and safe week ahead.

Jeff Penner

A Brief Break from the Rain and Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are getting a mostly dry and nice weekend of weather as you still get nice days in an active weather pattern.

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The rain and thunderstorm chances go way up on Monday and will continue through Wednesday or Thursday.

TODAY: It will be near perfect with highs around 70° and a light wind. We are in a pattern this weekend where we will see small disturbances track in from the northwest. These disturbances will contain showers and thunderstorms. There will be one this evening across Nebraska and Iowa, but as it moves southeast the rain will likely fall apart. It may limp in early Sunday with a brief shower or T-Storm.

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SUNDAY: It will be a mostly dry day with highs 70°-75°. Now, that being said, there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm as we track disturbances coming in from the west and northwest. Any rain and thunderstorms that form to our northwest Sunday will be weakening as they move into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. So, if we see rain Sunday, it will be mostly light and brief. That will change later Sunday night and Monday morning.

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LATER SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING: We will be watching for the potential of seeing a more organized cluster of heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms. We will be getting into juicier air and this will allow any thunderstorms that form to our northwest to survive.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: After the chance of a morning thunderstorm cluster we will be tracking a cold front. This front will be stalling Monday night. It will then waver around through Wednesday or Thursday as a series of systems track along it from the southwest USA. So, we have a chance of some thunderstorms Monday afternoon. It depends how warm it gets and that depends on what happens during the morning.

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MONDAY NIGHT: A training echo event is possible along and north of the front. Flash flooding will be a problem as some locations will see 2″ to 5″ of rain. This data has the heavy thunderstorm zone just south of KC.  We will be watching this closely.

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TUESDAY: The front will be near as a system tracks in from the southwest. This will bring more rain and thunderstorms to the area. The rain chances will end Wednesday or Thursday after a main system moves by and pushes the front south for the final time in this latest rain and thunderstorm episode.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: 1″ to 4″ of rain is likely across much of the Plains and Midwest. A few locations could see 4″ to 7″. This is not that unusual for this time of year as we are into the wettest time of year. The problem is that the rivers are at or over flood stage and the ground is saturated. So, flash flooding and river flooding will be an issue. 36 people have died this year from flooding. Most of these deaths have occurred due to people driving around barricades. You can avoid being a flooding death statistic by following one simple rule. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

5″ to 10″ of rain is possible from Texas to Tennessee. This could have big impacts on the lower Mississippi river.

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If you need to mow, this is the day. Sunday is even a good day. The ground is wet and squishy, but you may have to deal with it as it will not have enough time to dry out before the next big thunderstorms arrive. Be careful with the mower as it can slide and slip on the wet ground.

Have a great week and enjoy the dry hours!

Jeff Penner