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Leave a message, we’ve gone fishin’

Spoke about it in the blog on Friday: the storm chance for Saturday night was low. As it turned out, some didn’t even see a drop. After a little bit of hype from others, it turned out where the atmosphere was capped off and the front simply moved in a way where the storms just could not realize their potential. The geek speak for all of that? It didn’t storm, it wasn’t the doom & gloom some were screaming for. The rain amounts were pretty wimpy:
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After clouds this morning, we had a great afternoon for the KC Air Show. The Blue Angels were the highlight, for sure. I managed to capture a few shots from our Skyview cameras.
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All right, I suppose I should talk about the weather: It’ll be nice this week. Thanks for readings, that’s all. ….
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Okay, fine, more details. There will be a weak ridge in the middle of the atmosphere that will help keep our weather pretty calm.
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We’ll be just enough in that bubble to keep the sky mostly sunny and the temperatures near 81°, give or take a couple degrees. Even the overnight lows will be quite comfortable, in the 50s. Your electric bills will thank you.

I do not see this really changing until about Friday. A warm front should sweep through and that will bring us a chance for rain and a few t-storms. But hey, that’s still six days away. Let’s enjoy the tranquil weather this week. Should be GREAT for anyone heading out to watch the Royals. I know I’ll be there!
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Enjoy the week ahead!
-JD

9 PM Update

Good Saturday night bloggers,

The Tornado watch is becoming a bust, which is no big surprise to us here at 41 Action News.  It does look like we will see scattered thunderstorms between now and 4 AM with a very minimal to no severe threat.  SPC is saying the 40% chance of a new watch after midnight.  We will keep an eye on things, but this seems a  bit much as severe weather has been limited.  There are 2 reasons why the severe weather has been low.  1.  The cold front has overtaken the thunderstorms which choked them off from their heat and humidity supply.  2.  There is a “CAP” which means warm air aloft which in turn inhibits cloud/thunderstorm growth.  By morning this will all be passed us and temperatures will fall to the 50s and low 60s, setting us up for a super Sunday.

Have a good night.

Jeff

Tornado Watch Tonight

Good late afternoon bloggers,

Our weather team is monitoring this watch closely, but the SPC issued it way too far south. There is no chance of a thunderstorm in Kansas City until after 10 PM. They just were too aggressive in putting the watch so far south. Later tonight there is a good chance of thunderstorms and we will keep monitoring it for you. The best chance of severe weather will be near the Iowa and Nebraska borders after around 8 PM or so. Even in this area the watch was issued just way too early, IMO.

Weather Time-line:

  • Now – 9 PM: Dry in Kansas City with no chance of rain. A few thunderstorms may enter far northwestern Missouri and far northeastern Kansas near the Iowa and Nebraska borders
  • 9 PM – Midnight: Thunderstorms approach Kansas City with a cold front blowing through. There is a slight risk of severe weather.
  • Midnight – 3 AM: Rain and thunderstorms likely.  The severe weather risk is low at this time frame, but we will monitor it closely.
  • 3 AM – 7 AM: Rain and thunderstorm move east and southeast with northwest winds and temperatures dropping into the 50s.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT

Here are the watches that extend all the way to the Canada border. I am tacking it closely on the Weather2020 blog.

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A strong summer cold front is approaching with a severe weather risk tonight.  Have a great evening. Jeff and Kalee will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

Gary

One Good Chance of Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have a good chance of thunderstorms this weekend as a cold front sweeps by.  The timing is for tonight and there is a slight risk of severe weather.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: The timing for our area is for after 9-10 PM.  The rainfall rates with the thunderstorms may reach 2″ per hour, so flash flooding may become an issue.

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Let’s go through the weekend weather.

SATURDAY 5 PM:  A cold front will be slicing through Nebraska, Iowa and western Kansas.  Thunderstorms will form on this front around 5 PM, well north of KC.  Some of these thunderstorms may be severe in Nebraska and Iowa with high winds, hail and a tornado or two possible.

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SATURDAY 11 PM: The thunderstorms will evolve into a line with the chance of some thunderstorms producing 60+ mph winds along with flash flooding.  Now, this model has the line in northwest Missouri at 11 PM.  It may be a bit further south as the thunderstorms can and often move faster than the models say.

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SUNDAY 2 AM: A significant line of thunderstorms will be moving through the area between 11 P and 3-4 AM.  Some thunderstorms may contain greater than 60 mph winds and rainfall rates 2″ per hour or more.  Again, flash flooding is a threat as well.

 

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SUNDAY 7 AM: The thunderstorms will be gone as quickly as they arrived.  There will be lingering clouds with a 5% chance of a shower.

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LOWS SUNDAY: After  the thunderstorms and front some very nice air will arrive.  Lows will range from the mid 50s north to upper 60s south.  The cooler air will not quite have made it to southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri by 7 AM.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be a very nice day with highs in the 70s and lower humidity.  A surface high pressure will build into the Plains and be around for much of the next week.  So, after tonight, the next chance of rain will be the end of next week or next weekend.  Highs next week will be in the low 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Small risk of severe weather this weekend

Tonight, it’s all about the CHIEFS! Yes, it’s pre-season, but it’s still football in Kansas Kanzhus City! Those out at the stadium will enjoy a great August night.
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Several events going on this weekend. And boy, so we have an important forecast to talk about. You may have noticed the Storm Prediction Center has moved their “Slight Risk” outlook more to the South. It now includes Metro KC and part of our coverage area.
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This is due to that cold front set to move through the area. The hardest part will be the timing of the front. Latest guidance is putting it through the area after dark; more so after midnight. This is how our Powercast model sees it.
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And to continue with that thinking, this is what it does just a few hours later.
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This would indicate the system gains a little umph overnight. As I mentioned in the graphic earlier, I think strong wind and heavy rains are the main threats. And make no mistake about it: more cool air coming behind that front.

Now it’s possible the front arrives a few hours sooner. If so, the timeline for storms would move up as well. Given what I’ve been seeing these last couple of days, I’ll have to allow for a chance of a few spotty showers Saturday morning. I think the better area for that will be in Central & Southern Missouri. Then, the focus will be for stronger storms Saturday evening into the overnight period. Right now, I’ll say the best window for thunderstorms will be from 8pm to 8am Saturday into Sunday.
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This may play a role in the air show taking place over the weekend in KC. Clouds may be thick and low at time on Saturday, which could make for some flying issues. It’ll be nothing like what we’ve seen the last couple of days with all the sunshine.
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Sunday should wind up being a really nice day, once the clouds move out of the area!

We’ll keep tabs on tomorrow night’s activity and continue to give you updated. Please check back with us and have a way to get alerts in the event something issued overnight.

To bring things back around to tonight, the Royals may have to dodge a few rain showers in Boston. I would not be surprised to see a little bit of a rain delay.
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In any event, have a great weekend! Go Chiefs, Go Royals!
-JD

A little deja vu for me and you

Let me just get this out of the way: the next two nights are going to be great for just about anything you have planned outside. So please, go and enjoy!
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We’ll see highs in the middle 80s for Friday and the evening is looking great too. Then, we’ve got to talk about some change. Yet again another cold front will plow into the area.
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This front will likely touch off some showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Out ahead of that front, I cannot rule out some early morning showers in the area Saturday. We’ll need to really comb through the weather info and see how it shakes out.

I think the best chances for heavy rain and storms will be Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
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Looking at the amounts, the guidance is not terribly generous, but it does show some fair amounts; especially along the Iowa/Missouri line.
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This is a chance that heavier rain slides a little more to the South. Another thing to keep tabs on!

Then, this sounds very familiar… a shot of cool air will invade the area. Again!
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Sunday may wind up being a cool day for some. But I think most of the afternoon will be dry. Beyond that, we settle back into a sunny and warm period: highs in the middle 80s as the Royals return home.

Speaking of the boys in blue, they are in Boston tonight. And the same line of rain that stalled the game last night, may impact the area late tonight.
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Give how the showers are 200 miles away, it’d take them at least 6 hours to arrive. So, I think the game tonight should be fine. That is… unless something develops ahead of the line.

Back here at home, I encourage you to get out and enjoy the evening. Hopefully that means you can leave the A/C off again.

Go Royals!
-JD

Calm, Cool and Collected

Good Wednesday evening bloggers,

The low this morning was 55° for the first time since May 31st.  My son said he was cold as we walked to class for his first day of school.  Today we are still in the 60s as of 3 PM.  We should warm to 70-73. The high so far has been 70°.  The coldest low high for today is 69°.  Usually when it is this cool in August it is cloudy and rainy, not partly to mostly cloudy and dry.

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LOWS THIS MORNING:  Lows were in the 40s across Nebraska.

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Tonight will be rather cool for this time of year with lows in the low 50s with some spots possibly dropping to the upper 40s.  This is average for September 29-October 1.

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FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY:

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THURSDAY: A large surface high pressure that settles overhead tonight, allowing us to drop as low as we can will push to the south.  This will put our area in a warmer southwest wind, highs will reach around 80°.  This  is still well below average.

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Our next chance of thunderstorms arrives Saturday morning with a warm front and then again Saturday night along a cold front.

Have a great night

Jeff

Any Severe Weather and Hint of Fall

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

830 PM UPDATE:

The thunderstorms continue to move to the east and the watch will expire.  There were a few severe thunderstorms, but most remained below severe limits.  If it were 5-8 degrees warmer this might have been a much worse night.  The nice weather begins tomorrow.

 

A decent cold front will move through this evening.  Will there be severe weather with this front? A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 10 PM.  So, new thunderstorms are possible and there is the threat for a few thunderstorms to produce quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 58 MPH.   We will be watching radar closely.

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TUESDAY EVENING SET UP:  The cold front is headed in.  There are outflow boundaries with temperatures near 80° ahead of this front, so we will be watching the radar closely.  Look at the temperatures behind the front, 50s and 60s!

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FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY: Most locations will see lows in the 50s, a breathe of fresh air.

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WEDNESDAY:  We will see highs around 70° as there will be lots of clouds through the day.  Rain and thunderstorms will be occurring across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.  Those areas will see temperatures in the 50s and 60s.  A few showers may try to creep up to I-70.  If they do temperatures will stay in the 60s.

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WEDNESDAY WIDER VIEW:  Northwest winds will bring in some great weather.

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THURSDAY: Look at the low Monday morning.  Very nice, some locations may drop to the upper 40s!  Thursday afternoon will be sunny, with a light wind, low humidity and highs around 80°.

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Have a great night!

Jeff

Thunderstorms and an Early Fall Feel

Good Monday evening bloggers,

The weather is going to be changing quite a bit the next 3 days as a cool air mass interacts with our summer heat and humidity.  Lets go through the changes.

MONDAY AFTERNOON SET UP:  There is a stalled front to our north.  Temperatures behind this front are in the 60s and 70s.  A few showers and thunderstorms will be around tonight, as weak disturbances and the front linger.  A second cold front arrives Tuesday, this one will be stronger.  This will come with a stronger storm system as well.

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TUESDAY SET UP (AROUND NOON):  The stalled front from today will become a warm front as a new stronger cold front approaches from the west.  50s and 60s will be found behind this front, it means business.  We will be in the 70s as clouds, rain and thunderstorms will likely be in the area as a lead disturbance gets kicked out ahead of the main storm and front.

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TUESDAY AROUND NOON:  There is 70% chance of rain and thunderstorms during the morning into the early to mid afternoon.  If these are extensive, temperatures will stay in the 70s all day.  So, any thunderstorms along the main cold front that arrives during the evening will likely not be able to attain severe limits.  If the day thunderstorms are not much, we could warm in to the 80s.  This would increase the chance of evening severe thunderstorms along the cold front.  We are leaning with the former scenario at this time.  The new 18z NAM strongly leans in that direction.

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LOWS WEDNESDAY: Regardless of how the set up turns out Tuesday, the cooler air will arrive Tuesday night.  Look at these forecast lows across the area.

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It will feel like school days by Wednesday.  Thursday will be very nice with lows in the 50s and highs around 80°.  New thunderstorm chances arrive Friday through Sunday as we will be tracking warm front, cold front and new system.

You can catch Gary Lezak tonight from 8-10 PM on the popular web show Weather Brains, run by James Spann.  Here is the link to the show:  http://live.bigbrainsmedia.com

Have a great night and Tuesday.

Jeff

Buckle up… a wild ride ahead

Those of you with kids or animals know this: when things get quiet, you start to wonder what’s going on.
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Well, the same can be true with the weather sometimes. It’s been quiet around here for far too long. Thus, the atmosphere must be up to something… and it is. Our rollercoaster ride takes off Monday night and may not settle for a while.

Expect it to be warm again tomorrow, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Then in the late afternoon, we’ll have to keep eyes on Central/Eastern Kansas for storm development. Whatever pops up, should move to the East as the night goes on.
The latest version of Powercast (driven by the RPM) shows how the radar may look by 8pm Monday.
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This is just the first chance of rain and thunderstorms. It still appears another chance will present itself on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted part of the area as having a risk for severe weather.
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That said, the overall confidence in this taking shape is low. It is very dependent on a few other factors. Even the wording from the gurus out of Norman, OK is weak:

…SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EVOLUTION WITHIN THE LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH — CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY UPON THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST FOR TUE. 8-19.

Powercast is showing activity in the area for Tuesday, but like we’ve seen lately, the models all have some different ideas on how this plays out. This is the newest version of the high-resolution RPM model. This would signal some strong storms in the area Tuesday evening.
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Given this, we will have to pay closer attention to radar trends and surface features, as opposed to what the models are spitting out. Some wiggle room must be left, as I do think we’ll have some strong to severe weather in the area. The exact location is still a bit uncertain.

Having said that, the guidance continue to indicate some pretty cool air coming into the area by Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will struggle to reach the middle 70s Wednesday–nothing to complain about in middle August. However, we could get a little cool that night into Thursday.
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That’s how cool it may be by Thursday morning. The kids could need light jackets as they head off to school! What a week.

Those making the trip to Sedalia for the State Fair, you’ll need to monitor the weather closely by the middle of the week. It could really impact your plans.
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No doubt, this coming week will be a lot more noisy than this last one. As always, our team will have you covered no matter what ruckus the atmosphere drums up.

Have a great night,
-JD