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Two More Severe Weather Threats

Good Tuesday night,

We had the big thunderstorm event this morning and now we turn our attention to two more threats the next two days.  Let’s go through this.

TUESDAY NIGHT SET UP: Yesterday we looked to the north for the thunderstorm threat, tonight we look to the south.  There is a warm front over Oklahoma that will be lifting north overnight.  This will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms with the best threat for severe weather 10 PM to 7 AM. A few small showers and thunderstorms are possible before 10 PM.

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TONIGHT: Some of the bigger thunderstorms may contain quarter sized or a bit larger hail.  Also, you can get a quick 1″-2″ of rain from this set up, so localized flash flooding is possible as well.

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WEDNESDAY: The warm front will wash out as a new cold front approaches from the north.  This set up is similar to Monday.  Wednesday will be mostly dry, hot and humid with highs around 90°.  Then, thunderstorms will form on this front and rage south.  Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat as they move through tomorrow night.  They may come through earlier than the thunderstorms from Monday night.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT: This data has the thunderstorms raging through 8-10 PM.  This could occur as early as 5-7 PM or as late as 12-2 AM.  We will know more as we get closer to the event.

 

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WEDNESDAY SEVERE THREAT: There is a slight risk of severe weather for mainly damaging winds and large hail.

 

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There are more chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, likely non-severe as the threat shifts south with the cold front.  There is a good chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday as the front returns north as a warm front and a system moves in from the Rockies.  This will be the last good rain chance for 7-10 days as we become hot and dry next week and make a run at 100°.  So, all this rain is good news for now.

Have a great night.

Jeff

 

Thunderstorms Likely Later Tonight

Good Monday night,

We have had wind, heat and humidity today as a cold front approaches from the west.  This front arrives early Tuesday, then it will stall and waver back and forth, so we will have many thunderstorm chances the next several days.

The front, Monday afternoon, was located over central Nebraska, and thunderstorms will likely form from north to south along this front as it moves east.

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TUESDAY 3-4 AM: The thunderstorms will be entering northern Missouri as they head south.  Now, this being said, the timing may be off by 2-4 hours in either direction.

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TUESDAY: 4-9 AM: The thunderstorms will move into the I-70 corridor with the chance of producing flash flooding and some damaging wind gusts. Yes, the rush hour may be greatly affected, although remember, timing is not set in stone.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The afternoon set up is highly dependent on how things evolve during the morning.  This is our best educated guess on how the surface will be set up tomorrow evening.  An outflow boundary may be left to our south with the main front stalled to the north.  So, on these boundaries you may see new scattered thunderstorms form, and if they do, they could be severe.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: We may see some scattered thunderstorms, but it appears the main development zone will be located over western Kansas.  If these get going, they could form into a decent MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) for Wednesday morning.

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The bottom line is that we have thunderstorm chances every day into the weekend as the front wavers around and countless disturbances emanate from the Rockies.  The best timing for the rain is later at night into the morning, but we have to watch closely for the evening development as well.  We will have to take this one day at a time.  It looks hot and dry next week, so lets hope we get the big rain this week.

Have a great night and Tuesday

Jeff

A small pattern shift to bring a stormy week

After a couple of evening with pop-up thunderstorms, we should remain storm free tonight. It will remain hot and muggy this evening, but dry. Starting tomorrow night, be alert for overnight thunderstorms. It could be similar to what we saw a few days ago with highs wind gusts and some pockets of heavy rain.
Be aware the forecast will change a little bit each day this week as we smooth out this forecast. Keep checking back with us.

Hope you have a great evening,
-JD

Isolated Then Widespread Thunderstorms

Good Sunday bloggers,

Saturday we had three rounds of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across KC.  There were some locations that stayed dry, while other locations saw 1″-2″ of rain.  We were in a zone where these thunderstorms could form as a left over weak front was in the area.  Today that zone has shifted east with the KC area on the west edge.  So, yes, we will see cumulus clouds form and some will become cumulonimbus clouds, especially east of KC.  The zone extends from an MCS moving into Iowa and a disturbance in the Tennessee Valley.  There is also a slight chance the MCS in northern Iowa moves all the way to northern Missouri this afternoon as dew points will be high and there is nothing really to stop the forward movement of this MCS.  So, we could be in for another odd weather day.

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SUNDAY: We then turn our attention to the northern Plains as a new cold front moves through the Rockies.  The heat will get pulled north as 100°+ heat moves into South Dakota.  This front will be moving to our area Tuesday.  Highs today will be around 90° here in KC.

 

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MONDAY:  The hotter weather moves towards our area as highs reach the low to mid 90s.  The front moves into Nebraska and this will be the focus of thunderstorm development Monday night.

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TUESDAY: The thunderstorms that form Monday night in Nebraska will likely affect our area Tuesday morning.  These thunderstorms look widespread and may have the potential for flash flooding and a wind event.  This begins a five day stretch where we have thunderstorm chances, mostly widespread, every day.  This is due to the front from Nebraska Monday night being stalled near the I-70 corridor along with a jet stream sagged south as we talked about in Saturday’s blog.  So, the next 7 days, many locations may see 2″-4″ of rain with some locations seeing 4″-7″.  Remember, this time of year you can see 2″-3″ of rain in one hour.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

Hot, Humid, Increasing T-Storm Chances

Good Saturday,

This weekend will be rather typical for July in Kansas City.  Highs will be around 90° with lows in the low 70s.  There is a 10-20% chance of a thunderstorm each day.  If you are to be affected by a thunderstorm this weekend, it will have to basically form overhead as any thunderstorms will be very slow moving.  They will also be few and far between.

SATURDAY: Here is some data that is a good example of what could happen.  It will be dry in most locations, but a thunderstorm or two will form and move slowly.  This model has the thunderstorm in northwest Johnson county, but they could pop up anywhere.  It does look like the Kansas side has a bit better chance than the Missouri side.

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SUNDAY:  The weather for our area on Sunday will be similar to Saturday, but changes are showing up to the west.  High heat is being drawn north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that will play a role in our weather for much of next week.  This front will head to the I-70 corridor, then stall and waver back and forth through Friday.

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JET STREAM NEXT WEEK:  Sunday and Monday the jet stream will be well north in southern Canada leaving much of the middle USA in a hot and humid air mass.  A storm system will be located in the Pacific Northwest.  This storm system will be moving east into the northern Plains and Great Lakes next week.  As this happens, it will push the jet stream south, see below.

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JET STREAM TUESDAY-FRIDAY:  The jet stream will be further south with cooler air to the north and the summer heat and humidity to the south.  This will set up a zone of thunderstorm chances from the Rockies to Great Lakes.  Some severe weather is possible and we could see 1-2 damaging wind events like last week.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS:  This model has widespread 2-3″ amounts with the bulls eye near KC, however this is not set in stone.  First, the bulls eye may be located anywhere in the area.  And, the amounts on a widespread basis may end up at 2-3″, but there will be locations of 3″-6″+.  These numbers sound high, but you can receive 1″-3″ of rain in one hour this time of year.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

It’s a storm sandwich day

What an early morning wake up call. Some got rocked with wind over 60mph this morning and lost power. These were storms Gary forecast on air last night at 10pm, while others were suggesting we had a slim chance of getting anything in the Metro. This is just a small sample of the storm reports.
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Closer to Metro KC, there were various reports of 55-65mph gusts and numerous reports of downed trees and powerlines.
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But just like Wednesday, the sky cleared around midday and the sun was back out in full force this afternoon. That’s not a good thing.
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The satellite tells a great story here. Can you see the glaring feature?
A cold front is currently situated up in Nebraska and will be cruising this way over the next 6-12 hours.
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Already, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area to an “Enhanced Slight Risk” of severe weather.
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To break that down a different way, if you used a 1-6 scale for severe weather and made 6 “the worst”, we’d be at a 4. Again, this is according to the SPC. There are still many dynamics that will needed to come together, the first of which is timing.
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I would not be surprised to see the SPC issue a watch for parts of Iowa & Nebraska, which may extend down into some of our Northern counties. As of this writing, that has yet to happen.
**4pm Update**
A watch has now been issued for parts of Iowa:
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From there, it’s a wait-and-see game. The overall belief is that this activity will slide through the area and be gone by about 2am-4am. Pockets of heavy rain are likely, as are more strong thunderstorms that produce high wind and hail. Rain amounts could easily be near another inch or two in the strongest cells. After the morning we started with, this will serve as the other side of the storm sandwich.
Our team will be tracking it all for you and providing updates, so be sure to check in with us on air and online.

Looking ahead, quickly… Isolated thunderstorms still possible this weekend with highs in the upper 80s to 90. And no, the humid won’t leave us anytime soon.

Those going to the Royals game tonight, there is a chance for a thunderstorms to get close to the stadium. You’ll need to be weather aware.
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Here’s to hoping there has been no damage at your location and the power is back on.
GO ROYALS!
-JD

More Thunderstorms?

Good Wednesday night,

Well, we had the thunderstorms Wednesday morning as a disturbance we were tracking yesterday in northern Colorado and southwest Nebraska moved across the region.  We discussed this possibility  on Tuesday.  Now, could the same thing happen again Thursday?  There are growing signs that it could.  And, if it does occur, there will be some areas with heavy rain and others with a few drops.  It is hard to tell where the heaviest will fall until we see how it is evolving.  The models are not good with the details of thunderstorms. but they can be good with a general idea.  This morning St. Joseph received 2.98″, KCI had 0.35″ and Johnson County had a trace-.05″.

We look to the west once again and there are thunderstorms increasing from Wyoming to Colorado.  These are being caused by the next series of disturbances heading east.  The models are all over the place on how this will evolve, but below we will show you one of the latest runs of data.

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This is the latest HRRR model.  This model did pretty good with the rain this morning, while the GFS, NAM and RUC were all over the place.  So, here it is and it has another cluster of rain and thunderstorms approaching Thursday morning.  This is not set in stone and Gary will know much more at 10 PM tonight as he gets more new data and can see how things are evolving in the Plains.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Heat and Thunderstorms

Good Tuesday night,

The rain we received over the weekend is now evaporating with these 90 degree temperatures.  Dew points are mostly between 75° and 80°.  This means the temperature has to drop only to 75°-80° for the humidity to be 100%.  This means there is quite a bit of water in the air, creating some rather high heat index values.  Here is the dew point scale and many dew points today are off this chart.

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DEW POINTS TUESDAY: Look at these readings with 80° plus from Harrisonville to Bethany.  There is a reason why it is higher in these locations.  These cities are in a more rural setting surrounded by corn and soybean fields.  Those plants are evapotranspirating the recent moisture they just received.  This will add a few degrees to the dew point.  Regardless, it is rather humid in all areas.

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HEAT INDEX TUESDAY: The heat index is dangerously high, look at the 120° in Richmond.

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So, we have the heat and humidity and often when the humidity gets this high it is very hard to keep thunderstorms away.  When the atmosphere is this juiced, it does not take much to create thunderstorms and once they form, they keep going with all of the available moisture.  Well, it looks like there is a disturbance emanating from the Rockies as a weak surface trough lies over western Nebraska.  This is now touching off thunderstorms as of Tuesday evening.  We are watching these closely and they are almost 300 miles away.  So, they have a chance to arrive 4-7 AM.  They would end during the morning, leading to a very warm and steamy Wednesday afternoon.

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The next 5-7 days will see chances of thunderstorms along with high humidity.  A weak cold front will move through Thursday night followed by another weak system for the weekend, so we may have a few days with highs in the 80s Friday-Sunday.  Have a great night and stay cool.

Jeff

Some impressive weekend rainfall

Make no mistake about it: this weekend was a soaker. Some truly outstanding rainfall amounts in some areas, including Kansas City. However, the forecast wasn’t perfect. It’s always interesting to go back and see how the forecast guidance handled the event once it’s over. In the video blog tonight, we do just that. Plus, we go into details about rainfall amounts. And hopefully you’ve enjoyed the break from the heat. July is about to get cooking, in truly Summer fashion.

Have a happy (and safe) holiday,
-JD

As expected, we’ve got rain

Some have already seen some very big rain amounts today. But we’re not done. Another couple rounds of rain are already headed this way. Get the latest update in my video blog:

Have a nice weekend,
-JD