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One Main Thanksgiving Week Storm System

Good Sunday,

It is hard to believe that Thanksgiving is this week. There is one storm system to track.  It will move from southern California to the Midwest then New England this week.  It could affect O’Hare with rain showers Wednesday.

REMINDERS:

1. Our winter forecast airs Wednesday night

2. Our Winter weather special airs 630 PM Saturday November 26

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the weather on this busy travel week.

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving.

Jeff

A Look Into Thanksgiving Week

Good Saturday,

This morning we finally had a low in the 20s.  This will be a sunny and cool weekend with highs in the 40s today and 50s Sunday.  Lows will fall to the 20s tonight.  There is one storm system to track next week and perhaps one at the end of the holiday weekend.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at Thanksgiving 2016 weather.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

A Windy Change

Good Wednesday,

Wow!  Stepping outside today makes it hard to believe it is November 16th.  Thursday will be even warmer, granted there will be much wind.  This will be followed by a strong Thursday night cold front, so stepping outside Friday will not be hard to believe it is the middle of November.  This weather change will be accompanied by wind gusts to 40 mph, but very little to no precipitation.  Let’s go through this change.

THURSDAY: We will see lots of high clouds with south wind gusts 35-40 mph.  Highs will be in the 70s.  Much colder air is lurking to the northwest.

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THURSDAY: There is not much moisture associated with this storm system, but there will be a snowstorm starting in Wyoming and western South Dakota on Thursday.

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FRIDAY: The storm is a fast mover and the band of snow will be in Minnesota and racing away.  Our warm air will be east of the Mississippi river, while we have lots of wind from the northwest, gusting 35-40 mph, along with lots of clouds. We will be dealing with wind chills for the first time this season as temperatures will be in the 40s with wind chills in the 20s and 30s.  Minneapolis will finally have their first freeze this weekend, about two weeks after their latest date ever!

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Here are the latest watches and warnings for this storm system.

There is a Red Flag Warning for southwest Kansas as strong winds and dry conditions enhances the fire danger.

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There is a Winter Storm Watch from Wyoming to Minnesota.  The light green area is a Blizzard watch.

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So, we are missing the biggest impacts of this storm, but hold on to your hats.  We need some rain and there is a system for next Tuesday that could bring us close to an 1″ of rain.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

 

One Main Storm System

Good Tuesday,

We have been in quite a calm weather pattern the last several weeks.  We now have a storm system to track for the end of the week, but it is going to move rather quickly and likely bring us no rain.  What it will do is bring us considerable wind and our first widespread hard freeze.  So, the leaves will be blowing all over the place Thursday-Saturday.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at this weather pattern

Have a great day

Jeff

Another Warm-Up & A Look Into Thanksgiving

Good morning bloggers,

I am still blogging every morning on the Weather2020.com blog.  The new LRC is set up and I want to go over some of the details with you as I posted over there this morning. We have many of the bloggers from the past over there having some great discussion every day. You don’t have to pay for it of course, but it keeps the trolls mostly out of there and it is only $1.99/month.  Anyway, I am posting here as well today.

And, I am planning on doing a Facebook Live at 9 PM tonight to discuss the Thanksgiving week weather forecast.  Like my Facebook.com/garylezak fan page and you can join in on the conversation tonight.

As we move into mid-November the very mild start to this season continues.  There are some changes showing up that will need to be monitored closely and we can discuss them today.  I am just about done with writing my script for the winter forecast that will be shown on 41 Action News, but I have not started writing up the one for the blog yet.  There is still something within this pattern I haven’t put my finger on yet, so let’s give it a few more days.

Let’s begin by looking at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):

ao.sprd2

nao.sprd2

 

 

When the AO and NAO dip deeper into negative territory the potential for Arctic air building up and being released into the United States increases substantially.  This is something we monitor closely every day.  As you can see above both of these indexes have drifted positive int he past few days. The AO was mostly “living” in negative territory from the moment the LRC began in early October.  This is one indication that we will eventually be visited by some pretty cold Arctic air this season. The NAO has been more neutral, but it is showing some signs of dipping negative. When these indexes dip lower there is an increased chance of  blocking and splitting of the flow and this would increase the energy and push it farther south.

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The models have been really all over the place and last nights model runs strongly trended towards some stormier weather Thanksgiving week. On the GFS model the flow is forecast to split big time over the eastern Pacific. This first map above shows the split and the southern branch of the jet stream producing a possible series of storm systems. I am hesitant to believe this as it just showed up on the latest model runs. It does have support from the European Model:

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This forecast map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere.  It is actually somewhat in line with the GFS model.  If you look at both models, you can see that the pattern actually looks similar.  The waves are separated a bit, but otherwise this gives us a bit of confidence, but it will need to be backed up by the next few model runs.  Here is what the European model shows at the surface:

Screen Shot 2016-11-14 at 7.03.17 AM

This would be quite the wet storm system over the plains next Wednesday night. The Plaza Lighting is the next day, so it is something we are paying close attention to. Just to make sure we have perspective here, these models had it warm and dry on yesterdays runs.

We are currently in LRC Cycle 1.   I know it has been a bit frustrating to start.  Let’s continue to be patient and see what the rest of cycle 1 begins!  I used to make our winter forecast by around November 10th, and then we had what we called “the panic period” because we would make the forecast and then we would see something we hadn’t seen yet. This could be about to happen. I hope so!

Have a great start to the week!  I will leave you with this picture. This is the frost from yesterday/Sunday morning on what is called “suicide hill” in Brookside, MO.  This is the hill that the kids use for sledding. Will the kids be sledding this winter?

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Gary

Fire and Freeze

Good Sunday,

We have been tracking a church fire on troost, near downtown all morning on 41 Action News and with the winds from the south at 5-10 mph you can see the smoke plume blowing into the northland.  At least, the wind is not that strong.

So, on Saturday’s blog I said we were still waiting for our first freeze.  Well, somehow at 7:15 AM Saturday the temperature dipped to 31° even though we were seeing temperatures 36°-37° on the hour.  This is not unheard of, but a bit unusual.  I could see this happening with temperatures 33°-34° on the hour.

The weather remains calm until the end of the week.  Watch the video below for an in depth look at a potential storm system for the end of the week.

Have a great week

Jeff

Still Waiting

Good Saturday,

Well, officially at KCI the low was 35°, so we are still waiting for our first freeze.  There were many locations that did see the first freeze with lows 25-30.  There will likely not be a cloud in the sky for a few more days as highs reach the 50s today, 60s Monday and 70s by the end of the week.  We are also in a dry pattern, but there is a system at the end of next week to keep an eye on.

Watch the video below for an in depth look at this odd weather pattern.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Frost Advisory Tonight

Good Election day,

A cooler air mass is moving in and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air in place tonight we should maximize radaitional cooling and drop to the low and mid 30s.  It is not hard to reach 32° this time of year, but we have been struggling to do so.  The next chance of a frost/freeze after tonight will be Saturday morning.  Check out the video below to get an in depth look at this odd weather pattern.

Have a great day and this election season is almost over, unless there are ties.

Jeff

Election Day Weather

Good Monday,

We are being affected by a weak system today into early Tuesday.  The rest of today we will see a few sprinkles or perhaps a shower, but the best chance arrives tonight and mostly east of I-35.  There may be a lingering shower early Tuesday, but the sun returns by afternoon.  Highs today will be near 60° with tonight staying in the 50s followed by highs in the low 60s Tuesday.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the weather.  We are in search of a freeze.

Have a great week.

Jeff

One Storm System

Good Sunday,

We are tracking one storm system for the week ahead and it is timed for Monday into very early Tuesday.  It will bring scattered showers with amounts .10″ to .25″, some locations may see .50″.  The weather looks good for the rest of the week. Highs will be mostly in the 60s this week with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Check out the video below for a more in depth look at this week’s weather.

Have a great week

Jeff