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Wettest October Ever?

UPDATE: 930 PM SUNDAY

The new data is in and there is very little change.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will move in 6 AM to 9 AM Monday with the rain basically lasting into Tuesday morning.  So, Game 3 is in serious jeopardy and we will easily become the second wettest October ever and have our eyes on #1.

The wettest is 11.94″ (1941).  #2 is 8.83″ (1967)

Wow! What a weather pattern.

Kalee Dionne will have an update Monday.

 

Have a good night.

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Good Sunday bloggers,

First, how about them Royals?  Incredible.  I was 15 in 1985 and remember the World Series well.  It is my opinion that this years team is a bit better than the ’85 team.  The one thing this team lacks is George Brett, but the rest of the 2014 Royals are more athletic with equivalent pitching.

Ok, now on to the weather.  There is a rather wet and strong storm system headed our way and it will likely impact “them Royals”.  Also, keep in mind, KCI has received 7.48″ of rain this month.  This is just about 4″ away from the wettest October ever!

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As we break this storm down, watch the rain gauges.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dry and Mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s.  There is going to be mist this morning.

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EARLY MONDAY MORNING (4 AM-9 AM): The first of 2-3 rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms moves in.

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MIDDAY MONDAY (11 AM-3 PM): More heavy rain and thunderstorms.  This could lead to flash flooding as the ground is saturated.

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Look at the rain gauges, getting close to 2″  by noon Monday.

MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (3 PM-7 PM): The rain may let up for a few hours as the thunderstorms move off and the main storm begins to close off in southern Missouri.

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MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT into TUESDAY MORNING (7 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday):  As the storm system closes off in the location it will be (southern Missouri), it puts our region in the northwest quadrant of the storm system.  This is where the comma head of the storm system forms.  It is in the comma head where you can have hours of precipitation and strong north-northwest winds.  Well, it appears we will be in the comma head Monday night into Tuesday morning as the storm system slowly moves east.  This will impact Game 3 scheduled for Monday night, first pitch 7:07 PM. You never know, they can play through light rain, but this could be a steady moderate rain.  So, Game 3 is likely to occur Tuesday.  It may be raining into Tuesday afternoon, so even Tuesday will be a close call on the game, but it will likely be dry Tuesday night.

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In the map above, this is 7 PM Monday and the rain is increasing as the comma head takes shape.  First pitch is 7 minutes away!

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As you can see above the rain is still in place at 7 AM Tuesday, so it rains all Monday night, not conducive to playing baseball.  This is close to set in stone, but could change and we will have a quick blog update tonight.

The threat will shift from flash flooding with the heavy downpours to a slower flooding issue with the steady moderate rain.  A flash flood or flood watch will likely be issued later today.

Now lets use the rain total around downtown for a count to the wettest October ever.

7.48″ + 2.32″ = 9.80″  This would leave us 2.14″ shy of the record.  But, we still have half a month to go.  We will be watching this closely all month.  And, we could see more than 2.32″, stay tuned.  Now the second wettest ever is 8.83″ in 1967, so it looks like second place is a slam dunk!  Wow!

Have a great day and go Royals!

Jeff

Cloudy but mild going into Sunday

Those up early this morning or who slept with the window open (like I did) woke up to a chill this morning! Our lows dipped down into the thirties in many areas.
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Along our northern tier of counties, temps were close to freezing and some saw frost. This may happen again tonight in that same area. However, those along and South of I-70 should stay in the 40s again thanks to cloud cover.
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I expect those clouds to continue to drift North and make for a mostly cloudy sky on Monday across the area. Despite this, I do think our highs make the low to middle 60s. Not that bad for this time of year.

Late Sunday, a system will creep into the area and this thing will move slowly across the region. That is going to spell trouble for the Royals game on Monday.
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A look at the most recent mix of models (12z Euro along with the 18z GFS, NAM, & RPM) all suggest there will be wrap-around moisture that moves back into the KC area late Monday. Based on what I’ve seen, we’ll likely have heavy rain and thunder storms overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Then things will taper off through the midday only to return right around game time Monday night.
Based on that, here is how I see the rain odds for Monday:
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As you can imagine, this may become a problem for the Royals game Monday night. I have checked and rechecked… there is no button on my system to make the rain go away!

One bit of good news: we’ll go on a bit of a warming trend toward the end of the week.
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I’ll be in for Gary all this coming week, tracking the warm up and that rain for Monday.  I’ll also be on air again tonight at 10p with the latest forecast information. Things could change, so make sure you’re watching! Until then, enjoy the weekend sports events and…… GO ROYALS!

-JD

A Big Monday Storm

Good Friday Evening Bloggers,

The Royals will play tonight! Now, will they play Monday night when they get back home. A major storm is now likely going to form, and this storm will be part of the cycling pattern this winter as we are now fully into the new LRC.  It is still early, but let’s watch this next storm closely.  Do we need more rain?  When in the past few years was the answer NO!

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Incredibly, after just the first ten days of the month KCI Airport is up to 7.47″, which is less than four inches from the wettest October ever recorded.  There is a chance that one to three more inches of rain could accumulate on Monday, but first let’s enjoy one very nice day:

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By Sunday, energy will be diving south over the Rocky Mountains and it will then begin affecting our area by Sunday.  And, then by Monday the storm is forecast to mature into a very strong and functional storm producing a real comma head. I say “real” because we have not had many of these chances in the past couple of years.  I will be going in-depth into the details of the cycling pattern on the Weather2020 site.

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The timing and strength of this storm is still in question.  This storm will also produce a severe weather risk, most likely over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Let’s see how it sets up.  Here is a picture from Thursday morning:

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JD Rudd will update the blog Saturday afternoon. By then we should be able to narrow in on a more specific forecast.  Have a great weekend. And, GO ROYALS.

Gary

Rain Increasing As Round Two Moves In

Good evening bloggers,

Last night did it again, the northland had by far much more rain than the south side of the kc metro area had a ridiculously low amount:

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These were the totals as of 5 PM.  How much rain have you received, and thunderstorms are increasing with a larger area of rain moving in with round 2 of this storm.  And, then we have another storm following up this one that will be due in Sunday into Monday.  Before we get to the second storm, let’s look at the radar as of 5:40 PM:

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Thunderstorms have survived all the way into Douglas county. Will they make it to the areas that have only had 0.20″ today?  They did make it to Topeka?  The new data has come in for the next system, and there will be a strong trough aloft digging over the plains over the weekend. Rain and thunderstorms should increase Sunday afternoon into early Monday, but this system appears that it will move just fast enough to get out of here on Monday evening for the Royals game. I will be going to my first playoff game on Monday night.  Go Royals!

Have a great night. We will get the blog updated early on Monday. JD is filling in for Kalee who is taking the day off tomorrow.

Gary

Rain Enters The Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

The entire weather pattern is in transition right now, and this next storm is caught in this fall change.  What was Hurricane Simon is now moving towards and into the southwestern United States.  The potential for thunderstorms will be increasing on Wednesday into Thursday.

The first 7 days of October:

  • The Chiefs just completed a September 29th victory over New England
  • The Kansas City Royals earned the right to actually play in October by winning a 12 inning battle against the A’s 9-8 after trailing 7-3 in the 8th inning. Did this really happen? Incredible!
  • October began wet with over four inches of rain at KCI Airport. October is usually a drier month!
  • The Kansas City Royals won game one in 100 degree heat in Anaheim, CA, and then go onto win game two in Anaheim, both in extra innings
  • The Kansas City Royals sweep the Angels with a Sunday night win at Kauffman Stadium with a few rain showers and some lightning after the game ended
  • The Kansas City Chiefs lost at San Francisco 22-17
  • Great weather returned to Kansas City for a perfect day to celebrate their win

This has been quite a ride of weather and sports in the past week.  And, now a strange storm system is approaching.  Will we be adding to this high October rainfall total?

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The forecast is easy for today. It will be sunny and gorgeous with temperatures warming up to near 77°. It is after today where the weather forecast becomes quite tricky.  The potential for rain and thunderstorms will be increasing Wednesday afternoon and evening with thunderstorms likely by late Wednesday night into Thursday. The models have been all over the place on this next system. We will likely be adding to the rainfall totals that are already high in the first seven days of the month.

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The remnants of Hurricane Simon are now flowing into parts of Southern California and Arizona. This moisture will move northeast today. This will combine with this changing pattern and a warm front will develop across Kansas and Missouri Wednesday. The conditions will become favorable for thunderstorms to develop. The models are all over the place on solutions and we will iron out the details and discuss these rain chances and look ahead to next week when the Kansas City Royals return to Kansas City for what will likely be three big games at Kauffman Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Have a great Tuesday. The EOI will be nearly a 10 today!

Gary

Royal Forecast

Good Morning Bloggers!

It is a happy Monday here in Kansas City after a sweep from the Kansas City Royals!  Can you believe it?  They played great last night and I loved a few tweets I got from viewers talking about the showers last night being Angels tears…HA!  The tears were minimal except for the eastern side of the metro not far from the K! 1

 

 

 

 

 

The showers have moved out and we are going to have a great day to start this week off.  Here is a live look outside as the sunrise

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We will have breezy conditions today with west winds 10-20 mph switching to the southwest which will helping warm us up the next few days. Tuesday we will see temperatures in the upper 70s, but it won’t last long.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The chance for rain will increase Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.  Most of us will stay dry into the early morning hours on Thursday.

 

We will keep an eye on this, but that  looks to be our next chance for measurable rainfall.

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Have a great day!

Sunday: warmer with a chance of a sweep

It was a bit on the cold side this morning as lows dipped into the 30s, making it feel a bit more like Fall across the area.
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Winds should shift around to the South tonight and I believe that will keep us from getting into the 30s again tonight. That said, it will still be chilly: expecting 40s tonight.

Going into Sunday, warmer air should push into the area. Highs will likely climb into the upper 60s to right around 70°. All this despite a weak cold front trying to move through. It’s basically just a glorified wind-shift line.

There is a small chance that a sprinkle or two develops late in the evening but it would be very hit & miss. I’m not worried about it impacting the various events going on in Kansas City.

Speaking of, it will be another big race day at the Kansas Speedway Sunday.
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And there is a very important baseball game at Kauffman Stadium Sunday night.
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Along with your brooms, you’ll want to take a jacket or at least some long sleeves with you to the game. I expect the wind to play a factor as we’ll see sustained winds out of the West around 8-12mph. The impact would be on YOU in the stands, not so much the game itself. However, the fact that it will be cooler here compared to Anaheim, it may mean less homeruns being hit.

Later in the week, we do have a chance for rain and I plan to talk more about that in Sunday’s blog post. Until then, enjoy this great Saturday night!
-JD

Thursday night update

Heaviest rain and t-storms have pressed off to our East tonight. At this point, the threat is over for the viewing area. There may still be some lingering showers/sprinkles, but I am not expecting any new development.
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We saw some VERY impressive rain in some areas. Not everyone got soaked, but many did. Up first, the official rainfall numbers (so far) for the major reporting sites:
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The radar estimated rainfall values show that the rain was quite heavy in several locations.
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Other viewers wrote to us via email/social media and said they saw anywhere between and four and six inches of rainfall not that far outside of the Metro. Pretty incredible.
In addition to the rain, we had some reports of minor hail damage here and there. Keep in mind, these were the threats we discussed on Monday: localized flooding and areas of hail.

Could this have been out last dose of severe weather for the season? It’s quite possible. But the nasty stuff isn’t done with our region overall.
While it may be smooth sailing for us tonight, things are just getting going for neighbors to the South and East.
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Active watches are in place right now and every single person living in Arkansas is under some type of watch tonight. While they will be keeping eyes to the radar in that area, we need to keep eyes on the thermometer.

Lurking off to the North is a massive amount of cold air. Check out the readings from the Northern Plains as of 7p tonight:
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It was cold enough where there was a fair amount of snow in Montana today. That cold air has its eyes set on us. Highs on Friday may struggle to remain in the lower 50s. Then by Saturday morning, I would not be surprised at all to see some areas flirt with the freezing point. Many in our area will likely see lows touch the 30s. The biggest question will be: can we warm back up in the afternoon?

As it stands now: not much. And truth be told, our forecast highs for Saturday-Monday may be a little too generous. October is a fickle month; you can get highs to pop into the 90s but you can also get lows to fall into the teens. Look at this October calendar (via WeatherUnderground) that shows the record highs and lows for KCI. You will probably need to click this image to see it better.
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I did highlight two days toward the end of the where we went to the extreme. For example, on the 30th of October, we’ve hit 91° before…and we’ve also been as cold as just 17°. So we started out this month warm and stormy, but will it end that way or will Winter look to settle in early? Just something to chew on.

On another note: let’s cheer on our Royals!!

-JD

Stormy Day & Fall Like Change

Good Thursday bloggers,

Areas of rain and thunderstorms will continue through the day, ending after 5-7 PM.  These thunderstorms are being caused by a storm system and strong cold front headed east from the Rockies.  The chance of severe weather is low as the clouds and rain will be keeping temperatures down to the upper 60s and low 70s.  The best chance for severe weather will be along I-44 where there will be more heat and the main storm system will be tracking right along I-44.  Our main concern will be very heavy downpours and some hail around 1/2″-1″ in diameter.  Most thunderstorms will not produce large hail.  Flash flooding will be the main concern as some areas have seen over 3″ of rain, including KCI.  The Olathe area has not even seen an 1″ so far.   New total rainfall will be 1″-2″.

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This is the slight risk for today and as you can see we are on the western edge.  Yes, there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our west until 3 PM, but the real threat for widespread severe weather is south and east.

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Look at these rainfall totals!  3.22″ at KCI and counting.

Turn around don’t drowned.

Then on Friday it is going to feel like October as winds will be from the northwest at 15-30 mph with temperatures in the 50s and even a few midday showers as a disturbance moves by.  The colder air will be moving in this evening.

Have a great day and stay dry!

Jeff

Severe Weather Is Increasing, Thursday Looks Severe Too

Good evening bloggers,

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Severe thunderstorms have been developing near a warm front, and outflow boundary. And, then later tonight into Thursday looks a bit more severe as well. We will be going over the details on 41 Action News. Skytracker and our chase teams are out to the south now.

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These have been increasing!

Gary