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Thunderstorms Likely Tonight

Good evening,

A decent cold front is going to move through tonight making for some great weekend weather.  Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s along with abundant sunshine.  In the transition we will have rain and thunderstorms tonight.  The severe threat is low, but some thunderstorms may produce quarter sized hail and a 60 mph wind gust.  Very heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main threats.

Here is the front as of 3 PM Friday:  Temperatures are in the 60s behind this front!  We are in the low to mid 80s which is not warm enough to support big severe weather.

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6-8 PM FRIDAY: There are scattered showers and thunderstorms in southeast Nebraska along the front.  These may drift into northwest Missouri this evening, but they will be behind the front and not that strong.  This data has them limping in, so evening plans are looking good at this time.  Notice, southwest of Emporia.  This is where a disturbance will link up with the front and create more substantial rain and thunderstorms.  It is this activity that will likely ride northeast and affect our area after 9-10 PM.

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MIDNIGHT: You can see we are in the rain and thunderstorms with the heaviest just south.  This seems like the most likely scenario.

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3 PM SATELLITE: It is the fine line in central Kansas that we have our eye on as this is where bigger thunderstorms will form on the front, possibly leading to the solution above or some form of it.

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Have a great night and get ready to enjoy the refreshing weekend weather.

Jeff

Rain Chances, Tough Forecast

Good evening,

We have had lots of clouds today with a few showers, due to a tropical plume emanating from the southwest USA where the remnants of Newton are located.  This plume has disturbances embedded in it and these will move by tonight into Thursday.  There is also a weak front forming, sagging to near I-70.  So, we have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday, but the models are all the place on coverage and location of any thunderstorms.  Our confidence in how much rain we see tonight is low.  The best location would be near the front that trails a complex of thunderstorms near Chicago.  Also, there is a right-rear quadrant of a jet that may trigger new thunderstorms tonight across northern Missouri.  Again, not an easy forecast.

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There is another chance of thunderstorms Thursday night as the vort max associated with Newton moves by.  This may stay south, but we have to watch it as the front from tonight will be nearby as well.  We will have to watch where these features come together.  The best chance of thunderstorms may occur Friday evening as a stronger cold front sweeps by.  A nice line of thunderstorms is looking likely Friday night.  Thursday and Friday may be good days to put down fertilizer.

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The front moves by Friday night whether it generates rain or not and this will make for a spectacular weekend.  Saturday will be mostly sunny, dry with low humidity and highs in the 70s.  The weather for the Chiefs game is looking great with lows in the 50s and highs around 80.  It looks great for tailgating and the game.

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We will be taking the forecast 12 hours at a time as this is not easy, but it fits this whole season.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Heavy Rain from Hurricane Newton?

Good evening,

We just completed a gorgeous Labor day weekend and now we turn our attention to rain chances.  Wednesday-Friday are going to be interesting as we track a couple fronts, disturbances from the southwest USA and hurricane Newton.

Hurricane Newton is  Category 1 hurricane on the Baja peninsula.  This storm will be tracking northeast over the Gulf of California tonight and Wednesday where it may intensify a bit as the waters are very warm.  Then, Newton will head to southern Arizona by Wednesday night.  The GFS and ECMWF take the remnants of Newton and bring it to eastern Kansas and western Missouri Thursday night.  It has potential to combine with a weak front in the area which would make for quite a rain producing event.

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THURSDAY: Here is what the RPM shows for the location of Newton by 10 PM Thursday.  It is poised and ready to move in and bring us heavy rain.  There is also a weak front in the area as well, and this could enhance the rainfall.

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WEDNESDAY: Now there is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the northwest and a disturbance comes out of the southwest USA ahead of Newton.  This rain is mostly tied to Pacific moisture and a disturbance.  There is also a new, stronger cold front for Friday that may bring thunderstorms after Newton.

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COMPUTER RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT-SATURDAY:  You can see how our area is in some very heavy rainfall. this is from the GFS which had 3″-5″ of rain for our region.  You can see how the origin of the rainfall is from Baja, CA, so most of the rain forecast is tied to Newton.  If Newton does not have much of an impact then we could see .50″ to 2″ as we should still get a round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening and Friday.

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Have a great Wednesday.

Jeff

Here comes the heat again

It’s a little funny how the atmosphere likes to behave… Labor Day is typically the unofficial end to summer. Yet, we’ve been cooler than average recently and *now* it’s going to decide to warm up again. Toss in the higher dew points and it’s really going to feel like summer.
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Overall, we can’t complain too much. Recall back in September of 2013. That was the month/year we had triple digit temps. So it could always be worse.

In the video tonight we look at what’s going on with Hermine off the Northeast coast, and we track the next chance for rain in our area. This heat & humidity is helping to set the stage for that. Also, you won’t see me on air next weekend; I explain why in the video.

Hope you are having a fun, safe, and happy holiday weekend! Quick note: we do not have a 5pm newscast tonight due to NASCAR coverage on NBC. We’ll see you at 10p!
-JD

Heating up & turning humid

Slept right through another earthquake this morning. Go figure! Jeff tells me things were swinging in the studio! I didn’t feel anything at my place. That said, the seismographs sure did! Take a look at two of the heliplots, one from Oklahoma:
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And the other from Manhattan Kansas:
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Pretty obvious the ground was doing some shaking. Wow.

Outside of that, we have a pretty quiet weekend left to go. The only thing to talk about is the heat & humidity increasing. It will also turn windy by Monday, so if you have a cookout planned, have some paperweights nearby!

The latest discussion is in the video blog:

Royals weather for tonight is looking great. Temperatures should be in the 70s for most of the game.
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Expect it to turn more humid Monday, so if you’re hovering over a grill, you’ll going to sweat a little more!
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Hope you have a great holiday weekend!
GO ROYALS!
-JD

Weather and Earthquake. Wow!

Here is the latest weather update and the info on the Earthquake.  I have lived in KC my whole life and have never seen a tornado, but now have felt an earthquake.

 

Great Labor Day Weekend Weather

Good evening,

The week long pattern of rain is coming to an end as cooler and drier air move in from the north.  The monsoon flow is shifting to the south after leaving many locations in our area with 8″-10″ of rain for the week.  It finished as the 3rd wettest August for KC.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Here comes the cooler and drier air from the north as we say good bye to the rain.

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THURSDAY: We will have abundant sunshine with a northeast to east wind at 5-15 mph.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80° with lower humidity, just spectacular.

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LABOR DAY WEEKEND: A trough will form in the western USA as a ridge forms over the Midwest.  This will keep us dry through the Labor day weekend as thunderstorms will occur from the Rockies to northern Plains.  Now this being said, we will have to watch Sunday or Monday mornings for the chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri as a round of the thunderstorms from the west tries to sneak in.  The east coast may have a flood situation as a weak trough combines with Hermine.

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Have a safe holiday weekend.

Jeff

Monsoon Flow

Good Monday night,

We have had three straight days of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms following three days of widespread very heavy thunderstorms.  This has been due in part to the southwest summer monsoon.  This happens every summer as Gulf of Mexico moisture flows northwest into Mexico then north into the southwest USA.  It is responsible for daily thunderstorms across the southwest USA and Rockies.  There are years where this moisture stays in the Rockies or drifts east into the western Plains.  The last seven days this moisture has been deflected into the Plains and even as far as the Great Lakes.  Last week the rain was more widespread as there was a front in the area.  The front washed out and now we are just having these scattered thunderstorms.  This will continue Tuesday.  Then, on Wednesday we may see more widespread rain as a weak upper low drifts into Kansas.  By Thursday all of this moisture will get pushed south and we will have some great weather for the end of the week.

7 AM TUESDAY: You can see the flow of moisture from Mexico to the Great Lakes with scattered showers and thunderstorms embedded.  The chance of seeing rain in the morning is 20%.

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TUESDAY PM: We will see more scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 80s.  Any downpour is capable of producing frequent lightning and torrential rain.  The chance of seeing rain Tuesday afternoon is 40%.

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The last day of rain is Wednesday.  The next rain chances arrive for the Labor day weekend, but mainly later at night and early in the morning.  Also, the rain may fall apart as it moves in from the west.  The one time it may be significant is Monday night.  We will update this as we get closer.

We do not need the rain now, look at the 2016 KCI rainfall information (Official Records for Kansas City):

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Unsettled week ahead meaning for chances for t-storms

What we have seen yesterday and today is pretty much the forecast for the next week. Expect the atmosphere to become unsettled in the afternoon, which will lead to scattered t-storms development. Organized severe weather isn’t expected for Monday & Tuesday, but we will monitor. Something a little more widespread and perhaps stronger could impact the area Wednesday as a cold front slides through the area. Get the latest details inside the video blog:

In general, this is our outlook for the next few days:
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It’s hard to say if this is going to impact the Royals for sure, but just know there is a chance for something to pop-up almost anywhere. So if you have plans to go to the game, keep an eye to that sky!

Have a great night and GO ROYALS!
-JD

More t-storms expected over the next week

What a wild night last night! A historic “flash flood emergency” issued by the National Weather Service for parts of the Metro. Think of that like when a “Tornado Emergency” is issued (such as in Joplin). Basically, it was their way of trying to say this was an extremely serious event. At one point, the rainfall rates were around 5-6″ PER HOUR. That’s amazing. The drainage system in Westport & the Plaza simply couldn’t handle it and we had some serious flooding. Go check out the video on our main page, it’s something else.

Here is the video blog for today, where we talk about the chance for spotty t-storms over the next several days:

For those looking for simple information, here are a few maps of the rainfall we saw on Friday:
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Let me know if the colors used on those maps make sense and stand out enough. The point is highlight the heavy rain. I feel the red and pinks do a good job of that. If not, I’d like to hear your opinion.

Over the next few days, the atmosphere is going to have enough energy in it to get t-storms bubbling in the afternoon to evening. They should be spotty to isolated (meaning not widespread). So as you make your plans this week–even on Sunday–know there is a chance for something to quickly pop up in the heat of the day. They should be short-lived and the main threat would b heavy rainfall.
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The Royals come back home Monday and there could be a chance for something to pop up during a game. Don’t be surprised!

Have a great evening and GO ROYALS!
-JD