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First Snow Day In Almost 3 Years

Good morning bloggers,

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This is Sunny The Weather Dog on our midnight walk last night.  Well it finally happened. Kansas City Missouri Schools are having a snow day and over 100 other schools are closed today as well. We were forecasting 1 to 2 inches of snow and it is very cold out there. Many secondary roads are snow covered this morning while the main highways have slick spots. This weak storm system is moving by this morning. There was one last band of snow moving in at sunrise and this could produce an additional 1/2″ or less in areas near KC.

Radar as of 7:15 AM:

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This radar image shows a band of moderate snow west of Topeka trying to work its way east. We are tracking this final area of snow on 38 The Spot and 41 Action News this morning.

Kansas City Forecast:

  • This morning: The snow will end by noon with an additional dusting to 1/2″ possible in a few spots. Roads will be slick and hazardous
  • This afternoon: Drying out with some sun coming out. High temperatures will be in the teens to near 20 degrees
  • Tonight:  Temperatures plummet to near zero

There will be a big warm up next week, but this cold will through Sunday before the temperatures jump. Have a great day!

Gary

Winter Weather Advisory

Good Wednesday,

We are tracking a small, fast-moving system for tonight into Thursday that has 1″-3″ potential for much of our region.  The chance of snow is nearly 100%.  So. lets go through the situation.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:  As you can see this is a narrow advisory with areas just north of KC being the center.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING SATELLITE: There is no big storm system, rather a series of small and weakening waves tracking from west-northwest to east-southeast across the Plains.  There is also a jet streak tracking southeast from the northern Plains that will enhance lift from the right-rear quadrant of the jet.

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WEATHER TIME LINE

(7 PM to 10 PM): The first band of snow will begin across northern Missouri between north KC and northwest MO to northeast Kansas.

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10 PM to 1 AM: The snow will increase and expand to south of I-70.  Temperatures will be 15°-20° with little wind, so the very first snowflakes will stick.

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1 AM to 6 AM: This will be the main part of the snow event as the main band of snow shifts south.  The pink color indicates patches of moderate to heavy snow.

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6 AM to 10 AM: The snow will end quickly from northwest to southeast.

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10 AM to Noon: The snow is long gone, but the cold remains.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: This is what the latest computer model data is showing for KC, basically 1″-2″ totals.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST (MAP):  At this time it looks like the 2″-3″ band will occur mostly north of KC.  This is from the 12z NAM. The other models that have lower totals in the graph above have the heavier band smaller and further north. So, bottom line it looks like a 1″-2″ snow for most locations and there will be a thin band of 2″-3″ most likely north of KC, but it could shift anywhere and we will not know for sure until this snow sets up, as it currently does not exist.  Wind will not be a factor, so it will be easier to measure than the first snow of the season on December 17th.

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This is not a big storm, but the small events can have huge impacts, plus the timing makes it so roads and surfaces for the Thursday morning rush hour will be slick and hazardous.  So, take it slow and cautious Thursday.

Will there be school closings?  The amounts would suggest no, but due to the timing this changes the equation.  The big KC districts may not close, but outlying schools have a much better chance of seeing a snow day.  Now, all this being said we will have the latest school closings Thursday morning on 41 Action News.

Have a great day and stay safe.

Jeff

Increasing Snow Chance

Good Tuesday,

Arctic air is pouring in and the rest of today will be stuck in the 20s despite  an increase in the sunshine.  Tonight will be clear and cold with lows around 10°.  Wednesday will see increasing clouds as a snow system approaches.  It looks like the snow will begin around 10 PM Wednesday night and end around 7 AM Thursday with a dusting-2″ possible.  So, the Thursday morning rush hour could be a mess.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the return of winter.

Have a great day and week ahead.

Jeff

A Foggy Change To Cold & Snow Is Possible Wednesday Night

Good Monday evening and Happy New Year bloggers,

The year has started out quite fascinating. We just had 14 straight days of above average temperatures, but this is now changing. In the change is this, as you can see below:

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The visibilities have gone down to near zero this evening. By Tuesday a blast of cold is on the way.

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The cold front, as of 6 PM Monday evening as I was writing this, was moving southeast. The air behind this front is very cold indeed. Temperatures will begin dropping by around midnight and Tuesday will feel much colder. There is also a weak disturbance that could bring us some very light snow Wednesday night, but it does not appear it will be a sure thing and even if it happened it would be barely a dusting, but we have to watch it closely as it could be as much as an inch.

We are having our third straight winter with low snowfall totals. Take a look at the December stats:

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Just when you thought it was going to be a cold winter it rapidly warmed up by Christmas. So far, only 2.3″ this winter all last month.  There is a storm may come together in February, or possibly later this month. The overall pattern, however, will likely feature a huge warm up in January as the pattern is cycling according to the LRC and we have a great new website at Weather2020.com that we are sharing this breakthrough technology with. We actually have developed an LRC model that is showing much better accuracy than any other model out there.  It’s really fascinating and will only improve in the years ahead of us.

Speaking of long range forecast accuracy. The outlook for the Chiefs playoff game at Arrowhead is nice with temperatures above average.  We made this forecast for that weekend 30 days ago. We will monitor it closely, but any chance of a storm is very low. Any chance of it being ridiculously cold is even lower.

Again, Happy New Year. Many of you may have heard I lost my dog Breezy on Friday.  It was somewhat sudden. She was 11 years old and had liver cancer and a Gallbladder infection that ended up doing her in. We had to make that hard decision. I MISS HER SO MUCH. She was very special. Sunny is doing well as she was there when it happened. I can’t explain, it but I can tell she knows.

Gary

Roller Coaster Ride

Happy New Year,

Today we will be in the 40s, then tonight into Monday we will see temperatures rise to the 50s.  Our highs tomorrow will be 53-60 depending on how far north the warm air makes it.  This warm up will come with clouds, fog, some drizzle and a few rain showers.  Then, two cold fronts move by Monday night with perhaps some more drizzle and a few showers(Total rainfall trace-.10″).  This starts the down part of the roller coaster and then we go back up next weekend.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the first week of 2017.

Have a great, healthy and safe 2017,

Jeff

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year,

2016 will end and 2017 will start, dry with slightly above average temperatures as highs reach the 40s.  Then, as we head towards Monday highs will jump to around 60°.  We are tracking an Arctic air mass for next week and a slight snow chance.  Click on the video below for an in depth look at the weather as we enter 2017.

Have a happy and safe New Year

Please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff

Weak Cold Fronts Until Next Week

Good Tuesday,

We have had another beautiful December day with sunshine and highs around 50°.  Weak cold fronts will move by Wednesday and Saturday, so highs through the holiday weekend will be in the 40s and 50s as we continue to be dominated by Pacific air.

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Now, this being said we have Arctic air in the northern Plains where they have a deep snow pack.  This Arctic air will retreat the next few days.  There is a 70 degree temperature difference across the middle of the USA, but o big storm systems to act on this temperature gradient.  We will not see the Arctic air or warm air around here the next several days as we stay in the middle ground air mass.

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NEW YEARS EVE: One of the weak fronts moves by on Saturday, so for the evening New Years celebrations it will be dry with temperatures in the 30s falling to the 20s after highs reach the 40s.

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There are strong signs of a change in the weather pattern next week where a shot of Arctic air is likely.  It probably will not last more than 2-4 days, but the end of next week looks to be the peak of this cold blast.  Here are the forecast lows for next Thursday.

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Will we see any snow with this cold change?  Right now it is not really showing up, but we will have to watch for some snow as this colder air moves in.  We  could see some rain Monday, while we reside in the warmer air.

Have a happy and safe new year and DO NOT DRINK AND DRIVE.

Jeff

The Last Week of 2016

Good Monday,

I hope every one had a Merry Christmas or happy whatever holiday you celebrate.  The weather for the last days of 2016 will be calm with above average temperatures.  We will be dominated by Pacific air with no storm systems.  Here is a day by day look.

TUESDAY:

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WEDNESDAY:

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THURSDAY: A Pacific cold front will sweep by with wind, but just a small temperature drop.

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NEW YEARS EVE: It looks dry with temperatures in the 30s.  It can be much worse!

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NEW YEARS DAY:  This looks like a cloudy and dry day ahead of some changes.

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The first week of 2017 may have a chance of rain, possibly some snow with an Arctic blast possible.  We will have more on this as the days go by.

Have a great rest of 2016 and please do not drink and drive, especially this weekend.

Jeff

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays,

We wish you a Merry Christmas from 41Action News!  We have been forecasting 60 degrees or higher for today for a week now, and it is going to happen. Most of the day will be dry.  We had a few showers and thunderstorms around 5 AM, and I expect them to return around 5 PM.

Christmas Forecast Time-line:

  • Now to 5 PM: Mostly dry and warming up to 63 degrees, a bit higher south and a bit lower north. Winds increasing from the south at 15-30 mph.
  • 5 PM – 7 PM: A band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm moves across. This will impact tailgating with a 30 minute period of rain likely.  Have your umbrellas ready. It should pass through fairly quickly. The temperatures will stay near 60 degrees for kickoff and it may dry out by then
  • After 7 PM: The rain ends and temperatures only drop a bit into the 50s

Here is the forecast map valid at 5 PM central time today:

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A strong storm system is ejecting out into the plains today and a blizzard will likely be the result over the Dakotas today. A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely form farther south over the plains. Here is a zoomed in version of this map:

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The record highest temperature on Christmas Day in Kansas City is 67°. The only way that happens today is if the sun comes out, so let’s see how the day progresses. The instability is really going to be limited. We would need it to reach into the 70s for these convective showers to become a major concern. This still needs to be monitored closely. Here is today’s severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center. There is a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within that yellow shaded area. But, that also means there is a 98% chance there is not a tornado. This area is back out west where the thunderstorms or strong convective showers form. There was lightning near Kansas City around 5 AM this morning as a band of showers and thunderstorms zipped across. So, this shows the potential is there for a thunderstorm this evening:

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Take a look at the forecast temperatures for just a few hours from now:

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Have a great day. I will leave you with this beautiful picture taken by Gus Rodriguez. Thank you Gus and Merry Christmas everyone. And, Happy Chanukah. Tonight is the second night of Chanukah! I will check in later. Now it’s time to open presents.

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Christmas Weekend Forecast

Happy Holidays Bloggers.

It’s The Christmas Weekend Already!  The weather pattern this weekend will feature a strong storm, but for Kansas City this likely means a big warm up. It may hit 60 degrees on Christmas Day, but it will come with a sacrifice. The wind will be increasing big time with south winds shifting to the west or southwest by around kickoff Sunday night. The winds might gust over 40 mph.

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Before the weekend, as you can see above, this is the map on Friday morning showing the above freezing temperatures but with somewhat of a mixture of light precipitation. We are expecting no accumulation or problems.  By Christmas Eve morning we are forecasting  a clear sky and this will allow temperatures to drop to around 25 degrees.

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For Christmas Day, take a look at this warm up. It will come with those strong winds, but I will take 60 degrees on Christmas. There will be a few brief showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain is likely by around tailgating gets under way. This should move through quickly, however.

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Go Chiefs. We will update you if we see anything else changing. Watch 41 Action News for details. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Gary