A Huge Warm Up and Storm System

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are tracking two main weather events the next five days as we motor towards Spring. First, we have a huge warm up for Wednesday and Thursday, into the 60s. Second, we have a storm system Friday and Saturday. Will this storm system finally bring us widespread decent rainfall?

WEDNESDAY: The day will start with lows in the 20s. Then, by afternoon with dry air, a brisk southwest wind and 100% sunshine we will warm forty degrees to the 60s!


THURSDAY: This is when the weather becomes more complex. A cold front will head south towards I-70 with highs in the 60s in KC to the 80s in southwest Kansas. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s across Nebraska and Iowa. High clouds will be increasing as Gulf of Mexico moisture flows north ahead of an approaching storm system from the Rockies.


FRIDAY MORNING: Ok, here we go. The cold front that came south on Thursday will stall from central Kansas to southern Missouri, becoming a warm front. This should be the set up for an active warm front which means widespread rain and a few thunderstorms across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Snow is possible in Nebraska with temperatures in the 20s.


FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: A surface low will be located in Kansas with a warm front extending east and southeast from the low creating a huge temperature contrast. Highs will be in the 70s south of the front with 30s/40s to the north. 20s will be found in Nebraska along with the potential for a snowstorm. Is there a chance of severe weather near the low and warm front? The dew points will not be high enough, but it is something to watch.


Now, this does look like exciting weather. The 12Z GFS even had snow in KC on Saturday. Remember, it is Tuesday and this storm is for Friday and Saturday. We know what has happened this season when we get closer to these systems, they trend towards duddery. So, let’s see how this looks the next day or two, but my goodness we are due for widespread precipitation and not every storm can be a nothing around here.

Have a great rest of the week.

Jeff Penner

How Would You Rate Winter In KC? I rated it a FAIL!

Good morning bloggers,

How would you grade winter? I give it a fail.  And, yesterday puts the icing on the cake.  Look at the little circle on the 500 mb chart that was the initial analysis on Sunday morning. That little circle near KC is an upper level low. You can’t make this up. A storm aloft was centered right over the northeastern part of KC and NOTHING. We didn’t even get a rain shower or a snowflake on Sunday near KC. It did snow over north central to northeastern Missouri, but in KC nothing. And, this is KC’s final exam. It gets a fail, and the winter gets a fail. We have completed our third straight winter at under 10″ of snow for the first time in recorded history, a record I am not proud of living through.


Ridiculous! Look at this again. I still can not believe it. We forecasted a storm to hit our region around March 11th-12th, and it has done it to us again. Wow! That circle is right over KC. And, nothing! St. Louis, also had under 6″ of snow as of yesterday morning, but they got into the comma head yesterday afternoon. So, St. Louis went from a D to a C or B.

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So, how would you rate winter in Kansas City? It gets fail from me, and so will Amarillo, Dodge City, but not Los Angeles. Los Angeles had one of its driest seasons ever. It would set the record for the driest winter season ever, but this March is coming through with, perhaps, enough rain to go just over the lowest total ever recorded. So, I will give Los Angeles a D.  I will give New York City an A+ for exciting, fulfillment, and production. This weather pattern has been fascinating, and now we are moving into spring.  What does it mean for spring? More on this coming up soon. Spring begins now with a clean slate. It better not fail.

This picture was taken near the end of the KC Pet Telethon. We raised $114,000 last night, and in my 18 years at this event we have raised over $2 million for the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. This is Sunny The Weather Dog who, along with all of her friends, helped out tremendously!

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Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to Weather2020 and click on the blog over there to provide your grade and join in the conversation. I am on my way to Cancun, MX today. The Kansas City Pet Telethon went very well last night, and thank you to everyone who donated for a great cause benefitting the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. I will check in later in the week. I need to truly get away.


Another Storm, Another Miss Part 3

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are tracking a storm system moving into Missouri and it is missing western Missouri, shock. It is not only missing our area, but it will become a big storm for the Tennessee Valley and New England. So, the beat goes on.

Here is Weather Track Radar from 630 AM Sunday. There is a large area of snow from central Iowa to northeast Missouri. Eastern Kansas and western Missouri will see sprinkles and flurries as the storm system tracks southeast.


SUNDAY NOON: Snow and rain will be occurring in central and eastern Missouri with mostly wet roads as temperatures will be around or above freezing and the snow is falling during the daylight hours in March. Now, that being said, if you are headed east today, be aware of some slick/slushy spots. The heavier snow areas will cause slush on roads.  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri will see some sprinkles and flurries, but another miss.


MONDAY MORNING: The storm system will be intensifying as it moves through the Tennessee Valley. Our area will have lingering low clouds with lows 30°-35°. There may be slick spots in central and eastern Missouri.


MONDAY AFTERNOON: The sun will return as highs climb to around 50°, a nice day. Our little storm system reaches the east coast and is ready to rapidly intensify.


TUESDAY: Wow!  The northeast is experiencing their third large storm in 10 days. This will likely cause more travel delays across the country as the big airports get affected by wind, rain and snow.


SNOWFALL FORECAST: Right now it looks like the heaviest snow will stay offshore of the big cities and affect northern New England the most. Boston still may see 6″-10″ of snow with NYC seeing 1″-2″. A slight track shift and this changes quite a bit. Needless to say, it is another big storm system.


As the storm system churns through the Tennessee valley, it looks to target Kentucky with 6″-10″ of snow.


And, here we are. We sit in Kansas and Missouri where KC receives no snow and northeast Missouri receives a dusting to 2″ of snow.


The weather will be mostly calm through the next week and we will see a major warm up to highs around 70° by Thursday. Our next storm system arrives next weekend, but it is trying to miss us as well. We will have more on this through the week.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Another Storm, Another Miss Part 2

Good afternoon bloggers,

We get a late blog today.  I forgot that Jeff took the morning off, and he is working tonight and tomorrow morning. We should feel for Jeff Penner a bit, because when he agreed to do this back to back shift he had forgotten about the time change. So, tonight when he goes home at 11 PM, and he comes back to work at 4 AM to get ready for the 6 AM show, well, he will not get much sleep because Daylight Savings Time happens tonight and Jeff will lose that extra hour. Do the math here: the most sleep he may get is around 2 to 3 hours. Ouch!  And, he will do the blog tomorrow.

So, here we are again. Another storm, another miss, part 2…..or really part 22. I am not sure how many this season, but this one is one of the more ridiculous ones. Let’s take a look:


The upper low is forecast to track just northeast of KC. And, we will get almost no precipitation from it:

12These two maps show the total precipitation forecast by the NAM model ending Tuesday night. As you can see, Kansas is left dry, while another storm produces just northeast of KC and intensifies near the east coast. And, there is a system coming into California with a subtropical plume of moisture spreading in from the Pacific. It isn’t quite the “Pineapple Express” but close.

We may see some light rain showers, or maybe even a few snowflakes Sunday, but this is another miss for KC. Will this dry trend change later this month? Last year it did. So, we are on the lookout for  any hints of this pattern producing better precipitation producing storms in the next few weeks. The drought is contracting right now towards Amarillo. In the next few weeks we will know if it continues to contract, or if it starts expanding.  This month is the first big test.



Another storm…..Another miss

Good morning bloggers,

So, here we go again.  I am on this flight back to KC. My orignical flight was at 6:20 AM, and I missed it. It is the first time in my life that I missed a flight, so I am on the next one.  I flew to North Carolina to work with a big company on utilizing the LRC in their business intelligence.  It was a great meeting, and now I am flying back to KC and I will be on the 5, 6, 6:30 and 10 PM newscasts tonight.  Then the KC Pet Telethon is on Sunday from 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM:  Click Here To Learn More Then, on Monday I am on a really badly needed vacation. I have been moving at 100 mph for weeks now, and we are heading to Cancun for five days.  Has anyone been there? I am just planning on kicking my feet up and relaxing.

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It may seem to some I get a lot of vacation, but I get an amount of vacation that I believe everyone should have at a minimum.  So many of us work so much, and work is only one part of life.  Weather is also a hobby for me and many of you, so I am always working in some respects.

Okay, onto our weather forecast.  This is another storm that is going to “do it to us again”.  What do I mean? Only the GFS model had all kinds of precipitation from rain to snow, maybe even a thunderstorm this weekend. Then, only the NAM model had an interesting storm for KC.  In our part of the world, we have not been able to get consistency from the models for any storm this season. No matter which storm we have experienced this winter and last fall, they have not performed/produced in our area anything major; not one time.  The biggest storm that comes to mind is the little ice storm that we had, the first one a couple of weeks ago, and maybe that somewhat unexpected heavy snow band that got our attention for about two hours that one Sunday morning. What storm would you consider our biggest this winter? Seriously, were there any? Was there one that stands out to you?  I know in Amarillo that the answer would be no, because they didn’t have one.

So, here we are, the day or so before this next storm system, and we have a good idea of what will happen…..almost nothing.  Why do we know this? Because part of weather forecasting is obvervational, look outside, intuition.  And, we all know what has happened.  I just looked: It has snowed a trace or more on 18 days this winter.  EIGHTEEN DAYS with a total of 5.8″. What? How is this statistic even possible, but we have lived through it?  The new data is rolling in while I am on this airplane writing this blog. And, at first glance, it looks dry through Saturday.  A twisting band of rain and snow forming over Nebraska and Iowa Saturday night will certainly be monitored closely by many of us, but the chance of another trace snow event is high.


This map above shows how ridiculously close this storm is to being exciting for KC, but we should know better.  Let’s see how this trends. What does this map mean? It means the storm is digging southeast right over Missouri. It really needs to dig into Kansas like it looked like it might yesterday, but nope. It is taking a frustrting path for KC.

Have a great Friday. I will check in later. I hope you get a chance to watch the Pet Telethon and donate to a great cause on Sunday.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and join in the convesation.



A Weekend Storm System To Track

Good morning bloggers,

While the northeastern United States had yet another storm system to experience, Kansas City and surrounding areas continue to have frustration after frustration.  Well, this trend will likely continue for a while longer.  It has been a rather difficult ride for us weather enthusiasts that live near KC.  New York City had snow all day yesterday:  1.41″ liquid and 3.2″ of snow. Their snowfall total for the season is now at 27.0″.  And, yesterday, it never dropped below 33 degrees. It was above freezing all day and yet they had another storm system to remember.  Speaking of remembering, look at this forecast we made in front of our peers at the big AMS Conference:

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Not only did the storm return on President’s Day weekend, but they have now had three others that have been similar, and there will likely be one more before the spring versions of their storm systems return in the next LRC cycle.  Maybe, just maybe, next fall a pattern will set up to place Kansas City in a region that gets hit multiple times like this.  This  years pattern, according to our near peer reviewed Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, has not been kind to Kansas City, Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, and many other cities. Wichita, KS, right down I-35, is still sitting at 0.3″ of snow for the entire season.  This is an incredible stat, but even more impressive is Amarillo, TX who is not just sitting at zero snow for the season, but only 0.01″ since October 13th. An amazingly consistent pattern, which it should be, as the same pattern continues.

The potential weekend storm system


The models have widely varying solutions, and this storm is now just two days away. This fits this pattern as well. Around KC, it has been very difficult on the weather forecasters in trying to predict if just a tenth of an inch of rain, or melted down snow or ice may accumulate.  Predicting light precipitation events means that it could easily produce just a little less, and then almost nothing happens. Well, here we go again, look at that system over Nebraska, the circle, or upper low.


The GFS holds this system together as it spins past KC, leaving Amarillo, Wichita, and Dodge City in the dust once again, but KC? Well, KC is on the edge of having a rather interesting storm system:


By Sunday morning, as you can see in the blue shade, there is a band of snow moving into northern Missouri.  A strong surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the southern states, and there will be a severe weather risk:


Let’s see how the models trend today.  Have a great Thursday. I am traveling today, and will return on Friday.  The Kansas City Pet Telethon is Sunday on 38 the Spot from 6:30 to 9:30 PM. I am the host for the 18th time, then next week I am on vacation, Cancun. Has anyone ever been there? Any suggestions, or just relax. I am going to get away for a week.  But, today, I am in Raleigh/Durham North Carolina for a Weather2020 meeting.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.


Real Storm Systems & Fantasy Storm Systems

Good Morning Bloggers,

A major winter storm is intensifying over the northeastern United States this morning. The forecast is tricky for the big cities. New York City had rain near Brooklyn this morning with snow just a few miles to the west. The rain/snow line is near the city and there could be a wide range of snowfall amounts in a fairly short distance. Just like back here in Kansas City, forecasting the exact amount of snowfall is not impossible, but a very difficult task and getting it exactly right for each location is likely impossible. So, there will be some people who think the weather forecasters can’t get it right and there will be some people who think we hit it spot on.  As we have discussed many times, when it comes to forecasting the exact amount of precipitation or even close to an exact amount, it should not be an expectation for our accuracy.  This goes for forecasting rainfall amounts, snow amounts, and ice amounts.  If we were forecasting rain, and it rains the forecast is considered accurate. Let’s say I say 1/2″ to 1″ of rain may fall with 2″ possible. This would be like saying 5″ to 10″ of snow with 20″ possible.  If the person was expecting 5″ and then 20″ falls, they would say “What?”, and consider that forecast was blown, even though it would be in the forecast. When it comes to rain, if 2″ of rain falls, and other areas only get 1/2″ of rain, which happens near Kansas City all of the time.  The expectation for forecasting snow and ice are just way too high. Way, way too high.

Now, with that said, this is the challenge for New York City this morning. It is a real storm system; a rather powerful storm system and it fits the LRC about as perfectly as any storm has this season. If you look back 47-48 days ago in January I can show you an almost identical pattern, but we are getting different results. There is a blocking high this time. Take a look at the pattern this morning:

The Real Storm & Then The Fantasy Storm


This map above shows the 500 mb flow valid at 7 PM eastern time tonight.  If you look real closely, then you can see the intense smaller scale storm system at this 500 mb level, around 18,000 feet above us, near New York City.  It is very negatively tilted, tilted from west to east, and very intense. Thundersnow is likely in a few spots near the coast today. Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel is likely thundersnow chasing today.  Have you seen the video of him going “crazy” during the thunder snowstorm live a few years ago? I am sure you can do a google search to see the clip. Here in KC, we certainly do not have too many chances, certainly not in the past few years.  Well, they likely have a few in NYC, but temperatures have been above 32 degrees, so their difficult forecast is now a “nowcast”, and I would love to have that problem, but instead here in KC we have to wonder about a fantasy storm.

The Block: Look at the ridge to the due north of this double barrel storm system. The block that formed over the past ten days is still there and affecting the weather pattern. Look at what happens next:


This map above shows a weekend storm, not quite put together like that eastern storm, but it is still fairly decent in strength and in two pieces. The lead storm is rather small scale near the Arkansas/Oklahoma/Missouri border. And, the blocking high is still influencing the pattern. Take a look at the forecast surface map Saturday evening:


This is close to producing a severe weather outbreak, but conditions likely just fall short. But, there will still be some strong thunderstorms possible near this developing surface low this weekend as it tracks towards the southeastern United States. Kansas City is on the edge of this system and I will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight.

Okay, are you ready for a massive fantasy storm? Take a look at this:


This is a forecast map valid around right when spring begins.  A major block is forecast to form on this model. It is also forming at a time when the big vortex forms over Canada, which is due to form, based on the cycling pattern hypothesis that was published in a peer review this week.  Those upper highs are strong and would have a major influence, but are they real? Is this just a fantasy storm? Well, I want to show it for conversation today. Can you imagine?  Take a look at the reflection at the surface:


What is this? Well, it is a 20″ blizzard and near Kansas City. My winter forecast snowfall total would verify in an instant. Again, can you imagine? Well, we know what will likely happen, but let’s monitor this last gasp of winter closely.

So, here is reality. It is cold this morning. Bundle up! I have quite the day planned. My promotions team is following me from blogging to Sports Radio 810, to a school visit with Sunny where I talk with 500 kids today, then off to work to look deeper into this pattern on the 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM newscast, to bedlam basketball this evening when the Sooners take on the Cowboys, onto the 10 PM newscast, then on my way to Raleigh, NC at 6 AM tomorrow for a big business meeting for Weather2020, then back to KC on Friday morning,  picking up Sunny, heading to Gladstone Elementary, then to work, then the Pet Telethon on Sunday where I am host for the 18th year, then to Cancun on Monday. WHEW!  Life is exciting.  Thursdays blog may be late!

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click on the blog at Weather2020.com to join in the conversation. So, who believes in the fantasy storm?


The Reason Why The Northeast Is Being Targeted Again

Good morning bloggers,

Another storm is targeting the northeast.  Why is New York City getting targeted again, while Amarillo, TX is still sitting at 0.01″ of precipitation since October 13th?  The LRC provides the answer, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis is finally peer reviewed, and here is the link to the paper out now, and in the Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting:

The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis

I presented the hypothesis at the American Meteorological Society conference in Austin, TX in January and showed this bold forecast that has already verified:

A storm hit on President’s Day weekend, and it will have hit two to four more times as well. How would you rate this forecast? I would give it an A+.  And, the new hypothesis is hardly new to many of you reading this blog, as we know it provides the answer to why Kansas City continues to get missed. We have not even forecasted any big storm systems for KC, why? Because this pattern just hasn’t supported it, yes the cycling pattern continues. Now, there is more hope of spring rains than snow for the KC region even though our chances of snow are far from over. There is even a chance today.  Take a look at the overnight European Model valid at 6 PM this evening:

This map above shows the snow showers near KC Tuesday afternoon and evening, but look at what happens to this storm as it moves east.

Forecast valid 7 PM eastern time Wednesday:

That is a 989 mb, 29.20″ surface low, which is weaker than a few of the bigger storm systems this season, but still quite strong, and enough to produce some very heavy snow. The forecast is still quite tricky for New York City and Boston, Philadelphia and more of the big cities.  The rain/snow line will be near the coast

How does this fit the cycling pattern? Just look at the pattern in January, around 47 to 48 days before this storm, and you will see a strikingly similar pattern, as we have showcased since October in this blog dozens of times.

So, what is next? Will Amarillo ever break their dry spell? How about Dodge City, KS; will they get more than their 1″ of snow they have had all season? Will Kansas City suddenly get wet when spring begins like last year?  We will see how the spring version of this pattern produces. As Gary England said years ago, “Lezak, well he called me Lowzack for fun, I saw it….It’s the same, but different”.  Gary saw the pattern when a storm was about to hit OKC and I tried to explain that it would hit them for sure, and it did. It is a big puzzle, and we are cracking the code.  We will get the same pattern this spring, but there will be seasonal differences.

Also in the paper, click on the link at the beginning of this blog, is the answer for why El Niño and La Niña forecasts failed the previous two winters, and how knowledge of the cycling pattern provided the answer to make a more accurate forecast of the ending of the western drought last winter. Let us know if you have any questions.

Thank you for participating in this blog experience featuring the LRC, and for spending a few minutes of your day reading this entry. Have a great Tuesday.  There may be a few snowflakes, and this is quite a difference from a year ago when we had a significant severe weather outbreak with 11 tornadoes near KC, including an EF-3 over Oak Grove, MO, and and EF-2 in Smithville.


Another Major Northeastern Storm

Good morning,

Well, we did it again last night.  The thunderstorms formed two to three counties east of Kansas City and moved away.  A cold front is now moving through this morning. Some rain showers associated with the front are possible.


This system moving by now will become another big storm in the east.  Yes, this fast moving system this morning will likely form into another rather significant storm near the northeast coast.  The weather pattern continues to cycle regularly and the same spots that have had an exciting winter keep getting hit by the storm systems, while the same spots that have been missed all season continue to get missed as spring approaches. This next storm, if anyone wants to check is exactly on the 47-day cycle near the east coast. Just go back and look at January 18th and compare it to what is about to happen. It is just incredible.  If you go a step further, and I will do the comparison for you, just look at what happened with this big storm that just hit the east and also out west:

LRC Storm Comparisons Cycles 2 & 4.

Now, did that block really help that storm system intensify near the east and west coasts? I believe that the answer is a yes, but there are other factors that go into this, including seasonal differences and other factors.  This block did have an influence, likely a pretty big one, but it was still just an influence. The LRC is still the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle.  The west coast is getting some noticeable effects, and quite obviously the northeastern part of the nation and the Great Lakes has been in impact areas. Kansas City and areas to the south and west of Missouri have been influenced by one of the quasi-permanent ridges aloft that has prevented every winter storm from materializing in our area.

So, this next storm forming in the northeast by Wednesday may produce some more snow or a cold heavy rain in the big cities, such as New York City and Boston. The forecast will be quite challenging. For Kansas City, I wish we had a challenge like this week, but our challenge has been will it rain or snow small amounts or will it go by dry.  Now, remember last year? It suddenly got wet in late March. There are still more storm systems in our near future, but will they be hits or misses.  Amarillo, TX is still sitting at 0.01″ since October 13th and Dodge City, KS is still sitting at 1″ of snow for the entire season. More on these stats later this week.

Today’s storm:


Look at today’s storm, above. This map shows a strong surface low, by 6 PM tonight, located over South Dakota. Kansas City will have a west wind. The model runs that had some wrap around snow have been way off for KC, but there still could be a snow or rain shower later tonight or Tuesday as a disturbance rotates around this developing system. Yes, it is a developing storm that looks so similar to one that formed 47 to 48 days earlier in January.  And, you can see the previous eastern storm out to sea just spinning around over the Atlantic.

The mid-week storm:


This next storm blows up and intensifies just in time to create an incredible weather experience again for the weather enthusiasts near the northeast coast.  What a winter they have had with ups and downs, warm and cold, and lots of snow.  And, this storm only looks more impressive as we get closer to it.  Let’s see how this sets up for them, but back home in KC we are having another rather dry system move by.  The cold front will move through this morning with dropping temperatures during the next few hours.

Here are my favorite two pictures from my snow chase 2018 trip out to Lake Tahoe:



I did get my fill of snow, but even this storm underperformed based on the model forecasts.  Why? It never really formed into an intense surface cyclone over the Pacific before moving in, and while I was in Tahoe, the locals said it was their first storm of the entire winter, and it was March. My goodness. But, I had around 18″ of snow, so I more snow in two days than I had seen in the last three winters combined.  And, bloggers, our chances for snow aren’t done yet, but it seems like many of you are ready to move on from this “miserable and frustrating” winter we just experienced.  One good snowstorm would certainly make many of us feel better, but time is running out soon.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great start to the week.


The Most Tame Part of the Storm, Again

Good Sunday bloggers,

Well, here we go again. We have a storm system tracking into the Plains and eastern Kansas/western Missouri will be in the most tame part of the storm. A blizzard will occur in the northern Plains, high winds will occur in the central Plains and the most rain and thunderstorms will occur east of the Mississippi river.

If you are an LRC doubter, it is hard to ignore the fact that our region ends up in the most tame part of these storm systems every time. The weather is doing what it is supposed to do based on this season’s cycling weather pattern. The one factor that could change this, is time. As we go into the warm season we shall see how this pattern acts. There is potential for this pattern to become more productive towards the middle and end of Spring.  We will have more on that in the coming weeks and months.

Let’s go through the details of this next storm system.

At this time there are a myriad of watches and warnings ranging from fire weather to wind to blizzard.


SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: It will be windy and mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 50s. The best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will be after 7-8 PM. A few showers may occur today from Clinton to Sedalia south and east.


MONDAY MORNING: There will be a chance of scattered showers until 9-10 AM. Otherwise, it will be windy and mild with temperatures rising to 55°-60°. So, roads for the morning rush hour will likely be damp to wet.


MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and windy as we go in to the dry slot of the storm system. If there is dust picked up in western Kansas, then we may see that in our sky, making for a hazy sun.


While we deal with sun, wind and perhaps dust in the dry slot, the northern Plains will have a blizzard in the comma head of the storm system. Winds may gust to 65 mph!


TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The storm system will track east-southeast, basically going around our area. This will bring the colder air south with clouds and more wind. The snow will stay north and northeast. A flurry is possible in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, but no accumulation is expected. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. It will be a blustery Tuesday and Wednesday.


SNOWFALL FORECAST: 6″ to 14:” of snow is likely from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. So, if you are travelling up I-35 or I-29 the next few days take note of the weather.


RAINFALL FORECAST: Rainfall amounts will be piddly across the region, mostly in the trace to .15″ range. There is a slight chance a few locations may see .25″. This is no change from the Saturday forecast and still not enough to even wash in lawn fertilizer.


The next storm system is due in at the end of the week and weekend. The GFS has a totally disorganized solution while the ECMWF has a functional powerful storm. Which do you think is correct?

Have a great week,

Jeff Penner