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A Big Monday Storm

Good Friday Evening Bloggers,

The Royals will play tonight! Now, will they play Monday night when they get back home. A major storm is now likely going to form, and this storm will be part of the cycling pattern this winter as we are now fully into the new LRC.  It is still early, but let’s watch this next storm closely.  Do we need more rain?  When in the past few years was the answer NO!

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Incredibly, after just the first ten days of the month KCI Airport is up to 7.47″, which is less than four inches from the wettest October ever recorded.  There is a chance that one to three more inches of rain could accumulate on Monday, but first let’s enjoy one very nice day:

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By Sunday, energy will be diving south over the Rocky Mountains and it will then begin affecting our area by Sunday.  And, then by Monday the storm is forecast to mature into a very strong and functional storm producing a real comma head. I say “real” because we have not had many of these chances in the past couple of years.  I will be going in-depth into the details of the cycling pattern on the Weather2020 site.

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The timing and strength of this storm is still in question.  This storm will also produce a severe weather risk, most likely over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Let’s see how it sets up.  Here is a picture from Thursday morning:

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JD Rudd will update the blog Saturday afternoon. By then we should be able to narrow in on a more specific forecast.  Have a great weekend. And, GO ROYALS.

Gary

Rain Increasing As Round Two Moves In

Good evening bloggers,

Last night did it again, the northland had by far much more rain than the south side of the kc metro area had a ridiculously low amount:

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These were the totals as of 5 PM.  How much rain have you received, and thunderstorms are increasing with a larger area of rain moving in with round 2 of this storm.  And, then we have another storm following up this one that will be due in Sunday into Monday.  Before we get to the second storm, let’s look at the radar as of 5:40 PM:

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Thunderstorms have survived all the way into Douglas county. Will they make it to the areas that have only had 0.20″ today?  They did make it to Topeka?  The new data has come in for the next system, and there will be a strong trough aloft digging over the plains over the weekend. Rain and thunderstorms should increase Sunday afternoon into early Monday, but this system appears that it will move just fast enough to get out of here on Monday evening for the Royals game. I will be going to my first playoff game on Monday night.  Go Royals!

Have a great night. We will get the blog updated early on Monday. JD is filling in for Kalee who is taking the day off tomorrow.

Gary

Rain Enters The Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

The entire weather pattern is in transition right now, and this next storm is caught in this fall change.  What was Hurricane Simon is now moving towards and into the southwestern United States.  The potential for thunderstorms will be increasing on Wednesday into Thursday.

The first 7 days of October:

  • The Chiefs just completed a September 29th victory over New England
  • The Kansas City Royals earned the right to actually play in October by winning a 12 inning battle against the A’s 9-8 after trailing 7-3 in the 8th inning. Did this really happen? Incredible!
  • October began wet with over four inches of rain at KCI Airport. October is usually a drier month!
  • The Kansas City Royals won game one in 100 degree heat in Anaheim, CA, and then go onto win game two in Anaheim, both in extra innings
  • The Kansas City Royals sweep the Angels with a Sunday night win at Kauffman Stadium with a few rain showers and some lightning after the game ended
  • The Kansas City Chiefs lost at San Francisco 22-17
  • Great weather returned to Kansas City for a perfect day to celebrate their win

This has been quite a ride of weather and sports in the past week.  And, now a strange storm system is approaching.  Will we be adding to this high October rainfall total?

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The forecast is easy for today. It will be sunny and gorgeous with temperatures warming up to near 77°. It is after today where the weather forecast becomes quite tricky.  The potential for rain and thunderstorms will be increasing Wednesday afternoon and evening with thunderstorms likely by late Wednesday night into Thursday. The models have been all over the place on this next system. We will likely be adding to the rainfall totals that are already high in the first seven days of the month.

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The remnants of Hurricane Simon are now flowing into parts of Southern California and Arizona. This moisture will move northeast today. This will combine with this changing pattern and a warm front will develop across Kansas and Missouri Wednesday. The conditions will become favorable for thunderstorms to develop. The models are all over the place on solutions and we will iron out the details and discuss these rain chances and look ahead to next week when the Kansas City Royals return to Kansas City for what will likely be three big games at Kauffman Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Have a great Tuesday. The EOI will be nearly a 10 today!

Gary

Royal Forecast

Good Morning Bloggers!

It is a happy Monday here in Kansas City after a sweep from the Kansas City Royals!  Can you believe it?  They played great last night and I loved a few tweets I got from viewers talking about the showers last night being Angels tears…HA!  The tears were minimal except for the eastern side of the metro not far from the K! 1

 

 

 

 

 

The showers have moved out and we are going to have a great day to start this week off.  Here is a live look outside as the sunrise

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We will have breezy conditions today with west winds 10-20 mph switching to the southwest which will helping warm us up the next few days. Tuesday we will see temperatures in the upper 70s, but it won’t last long.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The chance for rain will increase Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.  Most of us will stay dry into the early morning hours on Thursday.

 

We will keep an eye on this, but that  looks to be our next chance for measurable rainfall.

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Have a great day!

Sunday: warmer with a chance of a sweep

It was a bit on the cold side this morning as lows dipped into the 30s, making it feel a bit more like Fall across the area.
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Winds should shift around to the South tonight and I believe that will keep us from getting into the 30s again tonight. That said, it will still be chilly: expecting 40s tonight.

Going into Sunday, warmer air should push into the area. Highs will likely climb into the upper 60s to right around 70°. All this despite a weak cold front trying to move through. It’s basically just a glorified wind-shift line.

There is a small chance that a sprinkle or two develops late in the evening but it would be very hit & miss. I’m not worried about it impacting the various events going on in Kansas City.

Speaking of, it will be another big race day at the Kansas Speedway Sunday.
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And there is a very important baseball game at Kauffman Stadium Sunday night.
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Along with your brooms, you’ll want to take a jacket or at least some long sleeves with you to the game. I expect the wind to play a factor as we’ll see sustained winds out of the West around 8-12mph. The impact would be on YOU in the stands, not so much the game itself. However, the fact that it will be cooler here compared to Anaheim, it may mean less homeruns being hit.

Later in the week, we do have a chance for rain and I plan to talk more about that in Sunday’s blog post. Until then, enjoy this great Saturday night!
-JD

Thursday night update

Heaviest rain and t-storms have pressed off to our East tonight. At this point, the threat is over for the viewing area. There may still be some lingering showers/sprinkles, but I am not expecting any new development.
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We saw some VERY impressive rain in some areas. Not everyone got soaked, but many did. Up first, the official rainfall numbers (so far) for the major reporting sites:
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The radar estimated rainfall values show that the rain was quite heavy in several locations.
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Other viewers wrote to us via email/social media and said they saw anywhere between and four and six inches of rainfall not that far outside of the Metro. Pretty incredible.
In addition to the rain, we had some reports of minor hail damage here and there. Keep in mind, these were the threats we discussed on Monday: localized flooding and areas of hail.

Could this have been out last dose of severe weather for the season? It’s quite possible. But the nasty stuff isn’t done with our region overall.
While it may be smooth sailing for us tonight, things are just getting going for neighbors to the South and East.
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Active watches are in place right now and every single person living in Arkansas is under some type of watch tonight. While they will be keeping eyes to the radar in that area, we need to keep eyes on the thermometer.

Lurking off to the North is a massive amount of cold air. Check out the readings from the Northern Plains as of 7p tonight:
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It was cold enough where there was a fair amount of snow in Montana today. That cold air has its eyes set on us. Highs on Friday may struggle to remain in the lower 50s. Then by Saturday morning, I would not be surprised at all to see some areas flirt with the freezing point. Many in our area will likely see lows touch the 30s. The biggest question will be: can we warm back up in the afternoon?

As it stands now: not much. And truth be told, our forecast highs for Saturday-Monday may be a little too generous. October is a fickle month; you can get highs to pop into the 90s but you can also get lows to fall into the teens. Look at this October calendar (via WeatherUnderground) that shows the record highs and lows for KCI. You will probably need to click this image to see it better.
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I did highlight two days toward the end of the where we went to the extreme. For example, on the 30th of October, we’ve hit 91° before…and we’ve also been as cold as just 17°. So we started out this month warm and stormy, but will it end that way or will Winter look to settle in early? Just something to chew on.

On another note: let’s cheer on our Royals!!

-JD

Stormy Day & Fall Like Change

Good Thursday bloggers,

Areas of rain and thunderstorms will continue through the day, ending after 5-7 PM.  These thunderstorms are being caused by a storm system and strong cold front headed east from the Rockies.  The chance of severe weather is low as the clouds and rain will be keeping temperatures down to the upper 60s and low 70s.  The best chance for severe weather will be along I-44 where there will be more heat and the main storm system will be tracking right along I-44.  Our main concern will be very heavy downpours and some hail around 1/2″-1″ in diameter.  Most thunderstorms will not produce large hail.  Flash flooding will be the main concern as some areas have seen over 3″ of rain, including KCI.  The Olathe area has not even seen an 1″ so far.   New total rainfall will be 1″-2″.

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This is the slight risk for today and as you can see we are on the western edge.  Yes, there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our west until 3 PM, but the real threat for widespread severe weather is south and east.

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Look at these rainfall totals!  3.22″ at KCI and counting.

Turn around don’t drowned.

Then on Friday it is going to feel like October as winds will be from the northwest at 15-30 mph with temperatures in the 50s and even a few midday showers as a disturbance moves by.  The colder air will be moving in this evening.

Have a great day and stay dry!

Jeff

Severe Weather Is Increasing, Thursday Looks Severe Too

Good evening bloggers,

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Severe thunderstorms have been developing near a warm front, and outflow boundary. And, then later tonight into Thursday looks a bit more severe as well. We will be going over the details on 41 Action News. Skytracker and our chase teams are out to the south now.

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These have been increasing!

Gary

Severe Weather Today

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Anybody stay up for the last pitch of the Royals?  I did and it was quite exciting.  This reminds me of 1985, underdogs all the way.

Now on to the weather.  We are in a slight risk of severe weather today.  There are many factors on whether we will actually see the severe weather around here today, aren’t there always?

First, here is the slight risk for today.  It covers quite a bit of real estate.

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There are two things we are looking at closely for where severe weather could form.  The first thing are the current showers and thunderstorms along I-35 north of the river moving north.  These have kept temperatures cool through midday and there are more clouds behind the rain, so it will be a slow warm up this afternoon.  This is a limiting factor.

Second, where is the real warm front?  It is along this warm front where the best chance of severe thunderstorms will occur.   Based on what we are looking at this moment, the warm front is located across southern Kansas to northern Oklahoma with a surface low way back west south of Dodge City.

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We will have to watch this closely as could the warm front head north?  Will we clear?  At this time this is our latest thinking and we will have updates as necessary.

The main storm and cold front sweep through Thursday.  There will be a good chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms. Some of these could be severe with damaging winds the main threat.  If the thunderstorms come through earlier than our model below suggests or if we have more morning thunderstorms then the severe threat will be limited.  We could see some decent morning thunderstorms if a lot form to the south and ride northeast over night.  Also, we could see some thunderstorms over night as well, bu these would likely not be severe.

Here is the map for 330 PM Thursday.  Note, these thunderstorms could form and move through faster.

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Friday will be a windy and October like day with highs in the 50s.  There is much going on the next 2 days, so stay with 41 Action News and we’ll keep you advised.

Have a great day and go Royals!

Jeff

The Active Weather Pattern Begins

Good Morning Bloggers!

What an exciting week we have weather-wise and in sports as well.  We start off nice and warm with above average temperatures in the afternoon to rain and a BIG drop in temperatures by the end of the week.  We will start with today with quiet weather for most of the day, so enjoy it!

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Temperatures will be about ten degrees above average this afternoon with high temperatures reaching in the lower 80s.  Southerly winds will help bring in the warm air around 5-15 mph.  Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in central Kansas this morning and this will be what impacts the Kansas City metro area overnight and into tomorrow morning.

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Spots off the west will see this convection tonight, so if you live in Manhattan, KS to Maryville, MO watch for this rain late this afternoon and into the evening.

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Showers and thunderstorms on and off from overnight tonight through Thursday evening.  Then we will see a BIG drop in temperatures on Friday.  High temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s, but we head back up toward average by the weekend.

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GO ROYALS!!!

Kalee Dionne