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One Last Snow Band and Major Warm Up

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

I know it is not much, but it was snowing at 1 AM. There was a light dusting in some areas, but look at the last second on the second radar image:

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After a week of tracking a chance of snow, we end up with this last image.  The freezing drizzle last night has happened many times before, but it was still shocking.  If all of that were snowflakes instead of liquid water it would have lessened the frustration. But, instead we had super cooled water droplets in an environment where the entire atmosphere was well below freezing.  Super cooled water droplets can stay in liquid form all the way down to nearly 40 degrees below zero, if the air is clean. We must have had really clean air last night.

Well, if you are up at 7 AM, you may see this last band of snow. Let us know.  Thank you for sharing in the Action Weather Blog Featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Now, let’s take a look at the week ahead as we get a break from the small winter systems and a sweet treat on Valentine’s day.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The sun will come out in full force this afternoon, allowing highs to climb to around 30°.

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MONDAY MORNING: It will be a frigid start with lows 5°-10°, but at least the wind will be 10 mph or less. Wind chill values will still be around -5°. The chance of re-freezing and black ice patches is there, but most of the ice and snow will evaporate this afternoon with sunshine.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The wind will be coming from the east-northeast, so highs will be about where they are on Sunday, around 30°. It will be mostly sunny with more clouds northwest.

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TUESDAY: Highs will reach 45°-50° as the wind becomes southerly along with thicker high clouds. Lows will be in the 20s as the Arctic air makes a quick retreat.

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VALENTINE’S DAY: We are in for a sweet treat as southwest winds take us to highs 55°-60°. Highs will reach the low 70s in southwest Kansas and 40° in Valentine, NE. Lows will be 35°-40° in our area.

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VALENTINE’S DAY EVENING: It looks like there will be lots of clouds with dewpoints in the 40s. So, if you are heading out during the evening, temperatures will drop slowly to 45°-50°.

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Have a great week.

Gary and Jeff

The 8th Snow Event of the Winter

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are likely going to have our 8th main snow of the season and we officially stand at 5.4″ of snow for the winter. So, right now we are averaging 0.8″ of snow per event and this next event will have a tough time raising the average.

Here is the weather time line for this next event. If you are out and about 6 PM to 9 PM there will be developing slick spots and after 9 PM is when the roads will get more slick.

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Now, let’s go through this next small snow event.

SATURDAY 6 PM TO 9 PM: We will see areas of light snow increase with some freezing drizzle to the southeast. The roads will be in decent shape with some slick spots developing.

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SATURDAY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT: The snow will be most likely falling north of I-70 with scattered light snow to the south. Once again, this is not a strong or organized storm system.

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SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM: This is the best chance of snow for all of KC, but just like last time we are waiting for a trailing band of snow. The only difference, is we have a better chance of scattered light snow before the band. It won’t take much to get slick with temperatures between 10° and 15°.

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SUNDAY 3 AM TO 7 AM: The snow will end and move off to the southeast. Yes, this is one notch away from a non-snow event.

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SUNDAY: Any snow areas will be over by 9-10 AM and the sun will return during the afternoon as highs reach the 20s.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST:

Based on the new data we are at a dusting to 1″ of snow for most locations.  1″ to 2″ of snow is possible north of highway 36. This data has KCI meeting the seasons snowfall per event average of 0.8″. It may end up less than this.

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This is yet again a snow lovers nightmare, but if it is not going to snow, it might as well be warmer. This week we are in for a huge warm up as highs by Valentine’s day should climb to 55°-60°.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

100% Chance Of Snow Saturday Night

Good morning,

Today, a Winter Storm is moving through the lower Great Lakes. There are many flight cancellations as Chicago is getting hit and it extends to Detroit.  This storm will zip by, and then there is another one, this weekend, forming farther to the southwest.  Would you be shocked if this weekends storm ended up producing almost exactly what the Christmas Eve storm produced?  The LRC has been used, in recent years, to help make accurate forecasts for specific events from the weather for the likely conditions at the Super Bowl played outside in East Rutherford, NJ, four years ago to even more specific examples such as getting the forecast down to a complex of thunderstorms producing potential severe weather.   Let’s take a look.

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This is the radar image from Christmas Eve. The latest data continues to trend into the direction of something like this happening Saturday night and early Sunday morning once again, exactly one cycle later, 47 to 48 days after Christmas, which was also on a Saturday night-Sunday morning. It may even be close to the same timing, but of course there will be some differences and we will discuss below.

Kansas City Weather Timeline: I will finish the timeline by 8 AM.

  • Today:  A cold front will move through this morning. It was 40 degrees at 5 AM, and it will drop into the upper 20s or near 30 later this morning with increasing north winds. It will likely stay dry today.
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow flurries. There is a chance of some more organized light snow over northern Missouri.  Low:  10°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a few flurries.  High:  19°
  • Saturday Night: Snow likely, possibly briefly heavy. The best chance of snow is from 10 PM to 6 AM. Low:  8°
  • Sunday:  Snow ending and becoming sunny. Total Snow Accumulations: A dusting to 2″ expected.

I went for a 100% chance of snow Saturday night.  Before I did update this forecast, I found this graphic that I wanted to use to show the chance of snow this weekend.  And, look:

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This forecast above was from 47 days ago. Remember, we are in a 44 -51 day cycle, centered on around 47-48 days.  As Gary England said to me around ten year ago, “Lezak, I saw it. I saw the LRC. It’s the same, but different”. This is when there was a major snowstorm potentially going to hit Oklahoma City around ten years ago.  I had explained to Gary England that OKC would get hit and all he had to do is look at the previous cycle of the pattern. He saw a glimpse of the cycling pattern.  So, here we are; the same, but different. We are in the same part of the pattern that produced snow on Christmas Eve, and here is the graphic I updated for this weekend. It even is falling on the same day of the week with a similar timing:

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117Jeff Penner was at work that Sunday morning, and he will be at work again this Sunday morning. He better not only be measuring 0.8″ of snow. That is what he measured 47 days ago.  And, the snowflake contest did not end. 1.1″ of snow fell at KCI Airport, and 1.4″ was recorded in Overland Park, KS. In fact, there was a minimum of under an inch right near the Plaza where Jeff measured the lowest total in the city that day.  Remember, it is the same but different, as Gary England pointed out years ago.  So, can’t the “difference” this time work in our favor?  Kansas City continues its streak of under 3″ of snow on any calendar day. The streak is now over 4 years long.  And, the chance that it continues is still rather high.  This means that our forecast of a dusting to 2″ is the most likely scenario.  We will continue monitoring this set up for any adjustments and changes, but right now there are still models that have lower totals. The European model came in just after midnight and it did end up modeling 1-2 inches, but most of its snow was on Sunday morning.

This next map shows one solution for Saturday night around 11 PM, and then for Sunday morning as the system falls apart.

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The set up is there for a lot more snow. If you look at the 850 mb flow, all we need is a slightly stronger solution, a slightly stronger storm dropping into the Rocky Mountains, and then we will be able to up the totals. But, any weaker, and then just a dusting will be the most likely solution.

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This is a strong baroclinic zone, frontal zone around 5,000 feet up. The 0°C line extends from Hobart, OK northeast to Chanute, KS, and then northeast to Indianapolis, IN. There is a 25°C contrast from -15 to +10 degrees Celsius. If there is any decent wave aloft that could trigger just some lifting, then this could turn into a big snowstorm.  We are monitoring closely, but from what we have experienced this season, it most likely will not come together. If there is any indication that it will, then you know I will jump all over it. This is just set up to blast someone, but there needs to be a trigger.

The Cycling Pattern:

Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 12.28.17 AM

Here is more of “the same, but different. The Christmas week part of the pattern is cycling through right now. As we tweeted out a couple of weeks ago, this is right on schedule. Other meteorologists suggested that this was returning. It isn’t just returning, but it has returned, cycled back through, and the pattern is cycling regularly. It will return again in late March. We will find out what the spring version of this pattern will bring. Could there be a Major Winter Storm just as spring begins? The answer is likely yes, but will it be Chicago, Des Moines and Omaha, or KC that gets targeted? This is the big question.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the weather blog by clicking here:    http://weather2020.com/blog/  This conversation will be a good one today. Let’s track in this chance of snow.

Gary

Will It Snow Or Miss This Weekend?

Good morning bloggers,

This lonely snowman took an entire yard of snow to make, but it is the biggest snow man I have seen in KC in at least two or three years:

snowman

It has been over four years now without even one storm producing 3″ of snow in a calendar day. A record that is now longer by over a year than any other time in KC history. Will it snow this weekend? i am not 100% certain we will even see snowflakes, but I am close to 100% confident in at least flurries.

We have similar challenges with our forecast for snow this weekend and it is only two days away.  There  is NOT a “real” storm once again. What do I mean by “real”?  It is difficult to explain, but if you recall, and if you were reading the blogs last week, I showed what was wrong many times with the last chance of snow. I clearly showed how that one very weak disturbance needed to be a little stronger. If it were slightly stronger, then we would have had a much better chance of wide spread snow. If it were slightly weaker, then we would likely have no snow.  I know many of you realize that we had this discussion, but think about it. It never did get slightly stronger, and it was also not a “real” storm, where there was a surface cyclone anywhere being generated.  This storm is similar, in that it is not quite forming into a storm, and most of the snow will be falling into a high pressure area. More on this in a second. Let’s look at today’s pattern.

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A warm front, the red line, should pass through KC today. This will likely lead to a jump in temperatures to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Snow will develop north of the warm front across the Dakotas.  Now, this is a real surface cyclone, with a warm front, a cold front, and a trough of low pressure all winding into a pretty strong surface low.

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The map above shows the forecast map valid by noon Friday. Another strong blast of cold will be moving across the plains into the Great Lakes. Snow is forecast to develop north of KC Friday.  By Saturday morning, there is a chance that some of this snow will track into northern Missouri, but notice the hole near KC.  Here we go again. That hole makes the entire model suspect.

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The map above is the aggressive GFS model that has several inches of snow still being modeled for Saturday into Saturday night. The Euro model has a lot less. The European Model does have around a dusting to 1″ by Sunday morning near KC. Here is the midnight Saturday night European Model:

Screen Shot 2018-02-08 at 7.10.44 AM

Again, the GFS is much more aggressive, but this is not a “real” storm yet. It is very disorganized aloft and it is something I will explain more tomorrow.

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Have a great day. We will look into what direction this is headed, how the models trend. But, we have another challenging weather forecast. The models range from NO SNOW, not even a flurry by the Canadian model to over 5″ on the GFS near KC.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversations:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

What Happened & What’s Next?

Good morning bloggers,

Well, let’s be realistic and honest here. And, most of you know I don’t hold back, and I share with you just about everything, if you ask.  Yesterday was not good for meteorologists in Kansas City.  I am a bit surprised at the lack of snow, but the warning signs were there.  Just look at the titles of the last few blog entries.

February Blog Titles:

  • Kansas City In A Snow Hole
  • Try Not To Get To Excited About Snow Yet
  • The Snow Struggle Continues
  • Three & Out, Punt
  • The Trend Is Up On Super Bowl Sunday
  • Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?
  • Snow Chances & Models
  • The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesday’s Storm

These are all of the blog titles in February thus far.  I think they say a lot.  It’s not like we were really expecting to get hit hard, and there was a way to forecast this storm better, no doubt about it.  But, we still did not get it right. Forecasting a dusting to 2″ of snow is like forecasting if it is going to sprinkle or have light rain for an hour or two during the spring. If it rains, then perception will be that we got it right.  If it snows, then the perception goes to did we also get the amounts accurate as well, which is a challenge for any precipitation forecast.  Either way, we still did not get this right.  As discussed multiple times, including big time in that video, the storm just needed to be a bit different, tilted a bit less positively, and just a bit stronger. It wasn’t, and the KC metro ended up with the short end of the snow stick.  No excuses, my forecast was not good at all yesterday.  The negative Nancy’s out there say such horrible things, as if we never, ever get a forecast right. When we forecast snow, and it snows, guess what? That is an accurate forecast. Forecasting the exact amounts is where snow becomes more glaringly difficult to forecast.  We have done quite well in the past few years, but this one went bad as not even a dusting happened. But, this has been a very rare occurrence.

The forecast was blown for KC. Even my dusting to one inch of snow forecast didn’t happen. My “slam dunk” of at least a dusting forecast failed.  On my way home it snowed last night, yes I experienced ONE snow shower from this storm. This came after the perception of a missed forecast on Sunday.  Believe it or not, our team forecasted Sunday’s storm better than everyone else. All last week we thought it may snow last Sunday and it did. Did I expect a blizzard for 1 hour with nearly 3″ over the south metro area, no way.  But, it did snow, and if you forecast snow and it snows, then the forecast is accurate. But, when it comes to forecasting amounts, well good luck. And, other forecasts were much worse than ours on Sunday and yesterday, so there is a buzz around town that we are wrong often. It is the landscape we have to deal with, but we will get over it.  Yesterday was not a good day, this has not been a good week, and now we have more of this weather pattern to forecast as another system is already showing up. Will it make us look like fools again?

I have a lot of pride and passion in trying to change the perception of meteorologists, the perception from many who think the weather can’t be predicted accurately. I have spent my entire career trying to change this perception.  The battle continues, and I hate getting thrown in with all of the other forecasts, when more often than not (Not always) Weather2020 and KSHB have the best, most accurate, and most specific forecast.  We took a hit, but we have had much worse forecasts in the past, it has just been a while since one was this glaringly inaccurate.  I should have stuck to my first impression of this storm five days before.  I didn’t.

So, what is next? Another chance of snow is already in the forecast, but are we going to believe any of the models that predict anything significant for KC?  Take a look at this next storm, this upper level, 500 mb forecast map valid on the day we are supposedly going to have our next chance of snow.

Screen Shot 2018-02-07 at 5.58.25 AMBefore we get to our next chance of snow near KC, take a look at what is forecast to happen today. Can you believe this? Of course we can, as this is what happens to storm systems after they pass our area this year.  The same storm that pulled off making fools out of meteorologists in Kansas City is now targeting the northeastern states. My goodness I would love to forecast this. The meteorologists over the northeast have their own set of challenges.  But, instead of trying forecast a dusting or an inch or two of snow, they get to forecast whether or not it will be five inches or a foot of snow.  Forecasting a dusting is like forecasting if it is going to sprinkle outside.  Think about that, ridiculous what we have had in our bag of forecasting opportunities in KC, while in other parts of the nation they get to deal with this storm to forecast, the same one that did not get its act together over our area yesterday.  After this system exits the focus then shifts back to the plains, but what is it we are really looking at with this pattern that continues to cycle regularly.

The developing weekend weather pattern:

500 mb flow valid Saturday:

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Where is the storm? Seriously, where is it?  Here we go again, a very disorganized pattern with a trough severely positively tilted from Hudson Bay in Canada extending west-southwest to Portland, OR.  I pointed out to Jeff Penner and our team a few weeks ago where this feature is one of the long-term long wave features, one of the anchor troughs that is causing our “problem” in KC. And, here it is again, for around the 15th time this season. There was one of these stretched out troughs that helped us miss a storm in December that did hit the deep south with snow.  What is going to happen this time?

Surface forecast valid Saturday morning:

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Oh no, seriously? We have an area of precipitation forecast to be located from southeast Arkansas to Florida, and another one entering northwest Missouri Saturday morning extending northwest into Nebraska.  This GFS model also produces snow in KC in the next 12 hours, but is it to be believed?  There is always one model that has no snow. They just won’t converge on a snowy solution near KC.  In this last storm it was the NAM model that not one time had any snow forecast for KC, and yet I ignored that model. WHY? Well, take a look at the one model that shows the miss this time.

European Model Forecast For Snow Ending Sunday Morning:

Screen Shot 2018-02-07 at 5.57.12 AM

The other models have snowier solutions, but again are we to believe it? Even if the models come out this morning with snow, are we to believe it? I say no, and we will not until I can see a good reason for it to happen.  There is a good reason for this not to happen right now.  That stretched out trough is a problem. Let’s discuss the trends in the comments on the Weather2020 blog.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. High: 28°
  • Tonight:  Clear and cold.  Low: 15°
  • Thursday:  Sunny and much warmer.  High: 48°
  • Friday: Increasing clouds. Much colder again with the winds increasing from the north at 5-15 mph. High:  32°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a chance of snow.  High:  22°

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

The Accurate Forecast From Five Days Ago: We Will Likely Be Missed By Tuesdays Storm

Good afternoon bloggers,

The new data is in, and there is still a chance of a dusting to 2″ near KC, but most likely nothing to a dusting is the better forecast.  We know this five days ago. Watch this video, and read the previous blog for more details.

Video Showing The Accurate Forecast From 5 Days Ago:

A look into our next possible storm from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

 

Have a great day. We will be tracking any snow developments this afternoon and evening.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to Weather2020 and join in the conversation. This winter season has produced many small chances, and many have come through. Maybe we will still get a little snow accumulation tonight.

Gary

Snow Chances & Models

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy and dry. The snow will stay north and west of KC. High: 21°
  • Tonight:  There is a 90% chance of snow with a dusting to 2″ possible before midnight. This would form in a band from northeast to southwest between 6 PM and 10 PM.

Kansas City awakens to a high overcast this morning.  The temperatures are very cold, around 10 to 15 degrees, and anticipation is building for another small snow event. We have experienced 5.4″ of snow officially at KCI Airport in seven different snows so far this season, and the chance this one tonight turns into another small event is very high. There is still some doubt that we will get any snow at all, and some areas may completely get missed by todays “storm”.  In fact, I believe it has now been years since our last true major winter storm. We usually have two or three major winter storms in a season, but not in years now. So, what is going to happen today? Let’s take a look at the potential beginning with a look back at some of the models that we have been paying attention to.

  • The European Model: So many just love this model, but at least in KC this winter this model has done the poorest that I have seen. It modeled these amounts from five days ago until the most recent run:  5″, 6″, 5″, 4″, 4″ wide spread, 3″, 3″, 2″, 1″, then zero on last nights run
  • The NAM Model:  0″, 0″, 0″, 0″, 0″, then 0.5″ on the overnight run
  • The GFS Model:  2″, 7″, 4″, 3″, 2″, 2″, 1″, then zero

The reason for the models forecasting and then not forecasting snow has been dependent on that wave I discussed in yesterdays blog. Just a slight difference and we end up with zero. But, just slightly stronger and organized snow bands may form. So, where are the models today?

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17

This model is the latest HRRR.  It shows a heavy band of snow, just like a line of thunderstorms, over the KC metro area at 11 PM. This line forms around 6 to 8 PM. Doesn’t it sound like we are forecasting a line of thunderstorms? Well, don’t be shocked if this is a nice line of strong to severe thunderstorms 47 and 94 days from now, or around the  first week of May. It will happen, because the pattern is cycling regularly centered at around 47-days.  This line is suspect still, so before we predict a line in early May, let’s see if this forms first. There are bands of snow early today to monitor, but the line that is on this model is something that likely forms this evening.

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 7.55.13 AM

This radar map is from 8 AM this morning. The band is moving east-northeast. Let’s see where this goes, and how this evening evolves. I truly feel like I am tracking potential thunderstorms and not snow, that’s how this system is acting, which still makes it suspect.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation. It should be an interesting one today

Gary

Will Tuesday’s Storm Hit Or Miss?

Good morning bloggers,

Sunday was a rather fun day to track the weather. An area of snow tracked in from the northwest on Sunday morning. By 5 AM, Jeff Penner and I discussed the likely track of this system right over KC. It was like an MCS (Meso-scale Convective System), or complex of thunderstorms. The snow came down heavily reducing visibilities to 1/8th of a mile or less at times.

5This is the radar image from 7:12 AM.  At this moment, the NWS had only a 10% chance of snow. Jeff changed our forecast to a 60% chance of snow by 5:30 AM.  By 8 AM Jeff changed the forecast to 100% chance of snow with an inch possible.  The NWS increased their chance to 30%.  Here is why some forecasters don’t change the forecast fast enough in a “nowcasting” situation like yesterday. They forget the rules of forecasting the weather. Well, they are my rules:

* Rule #1: Always look outside because you never know

* Rule #2:  Look at radar and satellite and the current conditions to see if anything is developing that the computer models do not see

* Rule #3:  Look at the computer models

* Rule #4: Always make up your own mind

If you would have really paid close attention to that area of snow northwest of KC, then you could tell it was increasing and not decreasing. Then, looking outside you could see some rather fascinating clouds as the sun was rising, these ripples in the clouds which said to me it was heading this way. The same kinds of look to the clouds happens when an MCS is approaching. And, the computer models? The computer models were useless and there is a time to stop looking at them, and this was one of those times. The models had NOTHING; well the Canadian model from the night before had this modeled the best, so there was one.

The NWS somehow also only measured 0.5″ despite a 15 to 1 ratio in snow to liquid calculation. They had 0.08″ liquid, but somehow only ended up with a half inch of snow:

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Just to the south, across the southern metro area, Gerard Jebaily, our weekend evening meteorologist and storm chaser, measured just under 2.5″ of snow, so a few areas had this much in a very short period of time. I had 2″ at my place.

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So what is next? The struggle may continue to add to our seasonal total, the whopping 5.4″ at KCI airport.  Why? Remember, I have been consistent in the past five days in discussing how just the slightest change would make a huge difference in this next storm system.  As great as Sunday was for some of us weather enthusiasts, I am concerned. Take a look:

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The model forecast on the left shows the GFS model from 8 runs ago, and the one on the right shows the GFS model run from last nights 6z (midnight) model run. They look similar right? Well, not to me at all.  There is the slightest difference in the strength of the wave coming out into the plains. 8 model runs ago, a much better defined wave was modeled to emerge out over the Oklahoma Panhandle. In the second map, you can see the wave much more phased. This ever so slight difference makes a huge difference in whether or not some areas see any snowfall accumulation at all (right), or up to 7 inches of snow with the solution on the left.  Some models are even weaker than this latest version and have almost no snow over the entire KC metro. So, how are we supposed to forecast the weather when such a subtle difference can have such huge impacts? Good question? Well, we are doing our best.

And, we haven’t even started talking about today’s disturbance? There is a storm system tracking across the plains today:

gfs_asnow24_ncus_1

This map above shows the snowfall forecast ending at midnight tonight, and the map below shows the snowfall forecast ending at midnight tomorrow night:

gfs_asnow24_ncus_5

So, we have two storms to track in the next 36 hours. And, it is still rather uncertain how much snow will fall, if any, from this combination.  Again, just a slightly stronger solution on tomorrows storm, and we will have a significant accumulation of snow, and a bit weaker…….then poof.  Let’s discuss this further in the comments section over on Weather2020.com.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

The Trend is Up On Super Bowl Sunday

Good Super Bowl Sunday bloggers,

Well, maybe just maybe we have some exciting weather to discuss. The first sign comes today;  Snow is heading towards KC at 7:30 this morning and it appears it will hold together.  The second sign; there is a trend in the models that is good, and it fits the LRC, as if you look back into early November and around Christmas Eve, there is a disturbance that should cross the Kansas/Missouri border around Tuesday night, and it is there on the latest models.  If we get the first one today, even just a dusting or snow showers with snow blowing around in the road, this would not be a swing and a miss, as Gary has been using as an analogy.  It may be a bunt single. Then, the second system, the bigger storm system appears we will be swinging for the fences, or maybe our football players will be opening up in the end zone for a TD catch.  The trend is rather good on this second storm. And, there is even a third one showing up for next weekend. But, we can’t swing and miss at the first two, or we will be in jeopardy of striking out again.

Join in the conversation over on Weather2020.com. Just click on the blog here:  Weather2020 Blog Comments

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY: There is clearly a disturbance in central Nebraska, the little twist between Omaha and North Platte, that is heading southeast at about 50 mph. The area of snow is mostly light, but since the disturbance is alive, the snow should hold together and we expect it to cross our region between 9 AM and 2 PM.

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The current track of the snow puts it into KC around 930 AM. It will exit 1-2 PM and we expect mostly the snow to blow around on the roads with a few locations seeing up to 1/4″ and slick spots.

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Here is the KC weather forecast timeline:

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Now, let’s talk about the second chance of snow, Tuesday. This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm in 4 years and the trend is up on the overnight data.

MONDAY MORNING: It will be dry and cold with lows 10°-15° and there is a system for tomorrow that will track mostly across Nebraska and Iowa.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The storm to the north may clip far northern Missouri with a dusting to 2″ of snow, while here in KC it is mostly cloudy with highs 35°-40°. The system to the north will bring a new cold blast Monday night, which sets the stage for the Tuesday event.

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TUESDAY MORNING: We will be monitoring, hopefully, an increasing area of snow in Kansas that should arrive here by noon.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: Look at this! Is it possible? Widespread snow with some heavy pockets. Well, the trend is back up and that is good, but it is far from set in stone. The storm could be weaker, the storm may still get it’s act together farther south and east. So, let’s just keep watching the data.

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SNOWFALL POTENTIAL: Yes, the latest data has 5.6″ of snow in KC which would, by far, make it the biggest snowstorm since February 4, 2014. This is NOT our official forecast at this time, but the potential is there. Stay Tuned!

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Have a great Super Bowl Sunday!  Please Don’t Drink and Drive.  Get that designated driver.  Gary will be working tonight as there will be a huge audience for the Super Bowl and “This Is Us”.  He will update the blog later.

Jeff Penner

Three and Out, Punt

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are monitoring three storm systems the next five days and all have potential to bring snow to our area. However, we know what has been happening this season and the previous three winters. The first two systems will be incomplete, so will the third system be a first down, touchdown or dropped pass?

Now we have seen countless blasts of cold and Arctic air and this will be a touchdown on Sunday.

So, let’s go through the Super Bowl weekend weather changes, the three systems and cold blast.

SATURDAY: It will be partly to mostly cloudy, windy and mild with highs in the 50s. A sprinkle is possible, but nothing measurable.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The first system bypassed our area and will bring snow, mix and rain east of the Mississippi river, 2nd and 10. We will see the cold air blasting in as temperatures will be in the low 20s with wind chill values around 10°.

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SUNDAY 10 AM-NOON: The second system will be producing snow across southwest Nebraska and northern Kansas. Will it make to KC? We will be windy and cold with temperatures dropping to the teens and wind chill values nearing zero.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It looks like the snow band will mostly fall apart before it reaches KC as it sags south and weakens, 3rd and 10. Now, we may see flurries to snow blowing around in the road, but likely nothing measurable. There is still a 20% chance we see 1/4″ to 1″. It will mainly be windy and cold with temperatures in the teens and wind chill values near zero. So, keep that mind when you head out to Super Bowl parties. Remember the Super Bowl is on 41 Action News.

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MONDAY: The cold air from Sunday will retreat as the next system approaches. We will see highs in the 30s with an increasing south wind.

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TUESDAY: OK, here we go. The latest data as the snow basically from the I-70 corridor south. The trend is scary as it has looked a little weak and farther south. You can see northern Missouri and points north miss this part of the system. So, one more notch and we could see the snow get its act together farther south and east and this would put our area in very little snow. Now, on the flip side, we have seen some solutions the last few days where the snow get’s its act together faster, putting us in one heck of a snowstorm. The trend, right now, is not good for snow lovers, but if we can get 1″ to 3″ of snow I will be happy. So, yes we could be 4th and 10. Or, will we see a 50 yard touchdown pass?

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Here is the latest snowfall forecast for the next five days, covering the three systems. For KC it is 0″ +0″ +4.2″ of snow. This is far from set in stone, but it sure would be nice to break the 4 year streak of not seeing a 3″ snowstorm or more.

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Have a great weekend and let’s keep watching the new data.

Jeff Penner