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Over 148 Million Seconds Since Our Last 3″ Snow

Good morning bloggers,

It has been over 4 years, 8 months, and 9 days since KC had its last 3″ of snow one date.  February 4, 2014 was the last time we had that much snow, which means we have gone four full winters of bad weather patterns in a row.  This streak will continue for another 45 days or longer, as we only average 1″ of snow between now and the end of November.  Here is a picture of that last 3″ snow:

Sunny The Weather Dog wasn’t even born yet. This picture shows my wonderful dog Stormy from four years ago showing a scene we have not seen since this February 4, 2014 storm.  Will this winter finally break this trend? Well, it is too early to call, and look below.

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This is the NAM model, and the other models are similar.  This shows the rain changing to heavy snow just northwest of KC. Remember it is only October 12th.  October 22, 1996 was the October Surprise when a storm much stronger than this one produced enough cold air to combine with the precipitation shield to produce 6 to 8 inches of snow, which shows that it can happen at this time of the year.  It is something to monitor and share together.

Today, rain is moving in. It will be close to having snowflakes over northern Missouri today as well.  Bundle up. Go Chiefs on Sunday, and have a great day!

Gary

Michael Destruction & Possible Snowflakes In KC

Good morning bloggers,

“It feels like a nightmare,” Linda Albrecht, a councilwoman in Mexico Beach Florida, said of the catastrophic damage in her town. “Somebody needs to come up and shake you and wake you up.”

Major Hurricane Michael is the top weather story.  Fatalities appear to be very low, and this is incredible given the strength of this system. As of my writing this story, only two deaths were reported. Unfortunately the destruction is considerable in many cities as Major Hurricane Michael slammed ashore on Wednesday.

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Michael began forming in the old LRC on October 2.  It then got organized just as the new cycling pattern was settling in, and it then got caught in the new cycling weather pattern that we will be experiencing for the next year.  It was fascinating to watch unfold as it entered this years Weather2020 forecast hot spot for the season. All four land falling named storm systems hit the predicted hot spot from last December.  Now, the jet stream will be strengthening and dropping south in the next few weeks as winter approaches. There will likely be two or three more named storms this season, and the chance of another one hitting the United States will get lower and lower as the weeks go by.

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This map above shows the 500 mb flow valid Saturday morning.  This developing pattern has my attention this weekend. Could Kansas City see some early snowflakes this year?  There is a disturbance forecast to develop and intensify over Idaho and drop south.  Some separation in the flow is predicted by some of the models as you can see below:

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Separation in the flow develops, and an upper level low tries to form just west of Denver, CO on Sunday.  This puts KC back into southwest flow.  If there is enough separation, and that trough (almost upper low) strengthens just a bit more, it will create an organized band of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night.  Some of the models, including this European Model below, is modeling a band of snow as the precipitation is coming to an end by early Monday morning. The blue shows the precipitation type as snow. Temperatures are forecast to be above freezing, so no accumulation would be expected, and we just need to watch this closely.

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Before this storm arrives, there is another system coming our way tonight and Friday. It will be difficult to not turn on the furnace tomorrow. I haven’t turned mine on yet, have you?  Take a look at this:

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This first system, on the heals of a very wet beginning to this years pattern, also shows some potential for snowflakes over northern Missouri Friday.  It likely will be too warm for this one. That pink dashed line shows where the 540 thickness line is, and that is often the rain/snow line.  We can also see Michael intensifying as it moves out over the open water of the Atlantic Ocean, and Sergio moving across the Gulf of California. What a fascinating pattern we have to monitor!

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  The sun should break out. It was down to 40 degrees early this morning with a few spots in the 30s.  Expect northwest winds 5-15 mph. High:  51°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds. A 90% chance of rain by morning. Low:  42°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain.  Rainfall amounts up around 0.25″ are expected. High:  46°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. High:  57°
  • Sunday:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snowflakes by Monday morning.  High: 41°

Have you read some of my forecasts in the past week. I haven’t written anything like these in years for the KC region.

Big Changes Next Week:

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This last map shows the weather pattern on Sunday night, when the Chiefs will host a Sunday Night Football game against Cincinnati.  The Bengals come to town and I can only imagine how loud it will be as we cheer on our superstar Patrick Mahomes as he leads the Chiefs at home a week from Sunday. We have a big battle in New England this Sunday, and the weather looks good!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let’s share in our weather experience by going to the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day!  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Share In The Weather2020 Blog

Gary

Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael, 15″ Of Rain Near KC, & What’s Next?

Good morning bloggers,

Topping the weather news is powerful CAT 4 Major Hurricane Michael taking aim on Florida this morning.  This verifies another incredible prediction made by Weather2020 months ago. If you remember in May, Weather2020 put out a press release with this prediction:  “there is a 90 percent chance that Florida will have at least one hurricane make landfall this season.  Applying this innovative technique, the target hot spot for hurricane activity near the United States this season is over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida“.  The predicted “hot spot”, which is the location each year where Weather2020 predicts will have the most likely hurricane landfalls, extended from North Carolina to New Orleans.  It was also predicted that Texas would have a very quiet hurricane season, since it was not in the hot spot, and this was an important prediction after last years, also predicted 55 days before it formed to happen within five days of the eclipse, Major Hurricane Harvey.  Major Hurricane Michael has become quite powerful and may still reach CAT 5 strength.

Major Hurricane Michael at 6:40 AM Central Time (7:40 AM eastern):

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This prediction was made in January (left) to form around September 1st in the cycling pattern described by the LRC.  And, this is now the fourth time this season a storm has gone almost directly over this predicted spot. Tropical Storm Gordon, as highly predicted 8- months in advance; Subtropical Storm Alberto which formed right on cycle in May; Hurricane Nate, around a year ago; and Major Hurricane Michael.  Another incredible prediction by using the LRC!

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There has never been a CAT 4 storm to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle, and it appears this will be the first one ever.  Imagine having months time to prepare, as they did have by using the LRC prediction.

Now imagine getting 15 inches of rain near KC during the first 10 days of October.  This is what just happened.  The weather pattern had the massive change, and I think we will all agree that we had massively different results than anything we have experienced in the past few years. Oh, we have had isolated rainfall amounts that were excessive, but this wide spread? No way!  Olathe may have gotten that one more hundredth to reach 10″ of rain overnight.

Rainfall Totals as of yesterday evening: 

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A few spots have come in at over a foot of rain in this past week and even some reports of 15 inches around Overland Park.  I raced back from Las Vegas to get here in time to track the band of heavy showers and thunderstorms and there was one tornado warning. Maybe there should have been a second one for Johnson county as we have had some videos come in showing what appears to be a tornado on the ground just west of I-35 between Olathe and Shawnee, KS.  You can see a well defined hook echo in this fast moving small cell at 3:30 PM yesterday.  We showed this on the air, and there was never a warning for it, and maybe it should have been warned?

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Conditions were favorable for tornadoes yesterday, and take a look at the storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center:

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There were 26 tornado reports, and very few hail reports.  I thought tornadoes were the main threat yesterday, and this is what ended up happening.  Okay, so what is next in line?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with some misty drizzle this morning.  High:  55°
  • Thursday: The low will be near 36°, then sunny and nice.  High:  56°
  • Friday: Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain. High:  49°
  • New England Forecast in Boston on Sunday night:  It looks great for Sunday Night Football with light winds and seasonal temperatures in Boston Sunday night! Go Chiefs!
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This forecast map above shows Hurricane Michael, still organized on Friday, Tropical Storm Sergio crossing over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, and another rain event, a cool rain event this time predicted to be centered over the wet grounds around our region in Kansas City. Temperatures are likely to be in the 4os Friday with this rain, which is now up to a 90% chance of happening. It will be time to turn on the furnace.

It is looking nice with light winds on Sunday night for the big game between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and New England. A Chiefs victory would put them in the drivers seat for home field throughout the playoffs. I know it is early, and it is fun to watch this team play lead by Patrick Mahomes.  He has gotten so popular that NBC is having a second Sunday night in a row featuring the Chiefs when the Bengals come to town a week from Sunday. A big test is ahead of this team.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and let us know if you have any questions.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 blog

Gary

Severe Weather, Snow and Michael

Good Tuesday night bloggers,

The weather is quite active across the USA as we are tracking a big storm system now moving out of the Rockies and a category 3 hurricane.

At 4 PM there was a large Tornado Watch in effect, but luckily no warnings.

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The line of thunderstorms that moved through KC between 4 PM and 5 PM ends the severe threat as it tracks across your location. Snow is falling across northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and western Nebraska.  What a fall storm!

We will see periods of rain through the night as it tracks north behind the line in association with the main storm lifting out of the Rockies.

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Here is the latest on Michael. It looks like Michael will enter the Florida panhandle as a category 3 around 1 PM Wednesday. It will likely enter between Panama City and Fort Walton beach.

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Now lets get to the forecast.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: The cold front will be moving by and we will see temperatures drop to around 50°. A shower may be lingering early in the morning.

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Snow will be flying across the northern Plains as our rain comes to an end.

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While snow is flying in the northern Plains, hurricane Michael will be nearing the Florida panhandle.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: It will be breezy, dry and cool with a mostly cloudy sky around here. Micheal will be slamming the Florida panhandle.

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THURSDAY: This will be the nicest day of the week as a smaller system in the Rockies heads our way for Friday. Friday may see light rain and highs in the 40s.

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Have a great night and Wednesday.

Jeff Penner

Flooding and Michael

Good Tuesday bloggers,

It has been quite a few days in the the area. We have wiped out the exceptional drought and the 7″ rainfall deficit at KCI. That is really incredible when you think about it.

Here is a radar estimated rainfall total map. A large area of 5″ to 10″ of rain has occurred from northern MO to southeast Kansas. A few locations have seen 10″ to 12″ of rain! So, it will not take much new rain to create flooding.

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There are Flood and Flash Flood watches from Canada to Mexico! The light green are flood and river flood warnings. There is also a hurricane warning along the Florida coast as Micheal heads north from the southern Gulf of Mexico.

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Why are we having all of this rain? First, in the upper levels there is a strong storm system, upper level low over four corners. The low is barely moving and sending a series of disturbances southwest to northeast from Mexico to Canada along a wavering front. This matches the flood watches and warnings. You can see Michael gaining strength west of Cuba.

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When you have the disturbances in the upper levels tracking parallel to a wavering front, you get the set up for torrential rain. Monday evening the front was just west of I-35. It has been drifting west and east for the last few days. That is why it seems cold one minute and muggy the next. Temperatures ranged from the 70s to low 80s east of the front to 40s and 50s to the west.

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There was a large area of rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front. You can see the front on this radar. It is the line from southeast of Wichita to near KC. It was drifting east, so we expect the rain and thunderstorms to shift east 50-100 miles by morning.

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This is the additional rainfall forecast through Wednesday. We are in a 1″ to 4″ rainfall band. You can see a reflection of Michael in the southeast USA. Some of the heavy rain will affect locations that Florence flooded.

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The big storm in the western USA will lift out into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. This will take the front and rain chances with it as it merges with Michael. We will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

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Have a great Tuesday.

Jeff Penner

Water Rescues In Kansas City This Morning

Good morning bloggers,

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20 kids and the driver were rescued by firefighters this morning as waters rise. This school bus was caught in the rising water and I got this picture from KSHB.com.  What a pattern change bloggers! Pretty amazing, and we are far from done.  How much rain have you all received. The LLRI worked for the first time in years. I finally missed a weather event. LLTI stands for Lezak’s Leaving Town Index.  It looks like some rainfall totals will approach or exceed 10 inches of rain by Tuesday night.  Areas around two counties southeast of KC have not had as much, and this may be the targeted area Tuesday night.  A wide spread rain event from KC all the way to western Kansas. Here is the radar as of 7:30 AM this morning:

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This map above shows the rainfall pattern, something, we in the KC area, have not witnessed in many years.  A storm developing over western states is getting kicked out by a second storm digging southeast over Idaho by tomorrow. Both systems combined show the negatively tilted trough aloft and the developing hurricane on these next two maps.

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A strong upper level storm, shown above, is continuing to move towards KC. It will become negatively tilted as shown below as the strong upper level low gets kicked out into the plains Tuesday night. Hurricane Michael will be strengthening at the same time and targeting the Florida Panhandle.  This active pattern isn’t going to calm down until after this next weekend, even though we will get a little break after Tuesday night. There is another system that may be combining with what is left of Hurricane Sergio.

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While all of this is going on in the heartland of the United States, take a look at the tropics.  It has activated again.

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We have Tropical Storm Michael, that will become a strengthening hurricane and treating the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  We have Sergio, that will be sending moisture our way. And, we have Leslie that has been alive for a very long time, named for 16 days now.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  We will move into the warm sector and be in the low 80s this afternoon. The rain should cut off for a while.
  • Tonight-Tuesday: The next rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move in with a 100% chance of rain. High:  77°
  • Tuesday night:  Thunderstorms with very heavy rain.  Total rainfall by Wednesday morning to approach 1 foot, the total since this pattern began.
  • Wednesday:  Drying out and much cooler.  High:  59°

I am out of town, in Vegas.  I will read through your comments later. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. What a beginning to this years pattern.  Have a great day.  Here is the link to share in this weather experience:  WEather2020 Blog

Gary

Kansas City Is Up To 3″ of Rain Already & Tropical Storm Michael Is Forming

Good morning bloggers,

The fourth band of rain and thunderstorms from this current set up and storm moved through overnight into early this morning.  The rainfall total at KCI Airport is now up to close to 3″ of rain already and there there are three more days left for the main storm system to produce more bands of rain.

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As you can see, as I was preparing to head to the airport, there was a well defined break in the rain. Now, this is a moving target, so let’s see how the morning goes. There will likely be a break by around peak tailgating time.  New bands of rain are to the south, however. And, how many times did we say that in the past year. NONE!  Welcome to the new LRC.

The main storm comes out Tuesday, and this is when there is a severe weather risk in our area:

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1Tropical Storm Michael is forming in the northern Caribbean Sea this morning. Michael is now caught in the new LRC, as it began organizing in the past few days in the old LRC.  This system will be fascinating to watch as it tracks into the hot spot predicted by Weather2020 for this hurricane season.  Weather2020 put a press release out in May with the main point being that Florida has a 90% chance of a land falling hurricane this season.  It came close to verifying when Gordon formed, as predicted 8 months in advance, and fell just 4 miles per hour short of being a hurricane tracking just west of the Florida Panhandle. The Florida Panhandle still had the largest impacts from that system. Fort Walton Beach was our target city for a land falling hurricane, based on our proprietary weather prediction system, and it will be interesting to see how close this system comes to our target specific location.  Michael likely will become a strengthening hurricane and it is targeting Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast.

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The above map shows the latest GFS model showing the Florida Panhandle landfall.  While this is going on, take a look at the bigger picture:

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This map above shows Michael, now inland by Thursday morning, and Sergio approaching Baja.  Sergio needs to be monitored closely as well, as it may interact with a storm moving across the western United States and have impacts on the southern and central plains.  It now appears that the two systems will not join forces, and we just need to keep monitoring closely.  Here is the latest:

GFS Model Valid Friday Morning:

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In the past two years, the LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index) has not been a factor, since storm systems have not targeted KC for a very long time.  Well, I am leaving this morning for Vegas, arriving in time for the Chiefs game.  I come back later in the week, and it does look like I will miss three days of thunderstorms.  Of course, you know I will be monitoring closely.  Have a great Sunday. Go Chiefs. And, thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Here is the link to the blog:  Weather2020 Blog Interaction

Gary

Welcome To Day 1 Of The 2018-2019 LRC

Good morning bloggers,

LRC Day 1 October 6 2018

Welcome to the 2018-2019 LRC day 1.  We are sharing something very special with you this morning while thunder, lightning, and heavy rain track across Kansas City early on this Saturday morning. We have identified that that old LRC has finally been wiped out and we are into the new pattern, day 1.  While we experience thunderstorms this morning, the tropics are also quite active.  Major Hurricane Sergio may actually impact Kansas City significantly next week, around Friday or Saturday, a week from now.  Tropical Storm Leslie has been swirling for over two weeks now, and there is a developing tropical storm in the northern Caribbean Sea.  These tropical systems are all caught in the new LRC, and something to pay close attention to.

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Thunderstorms were moving across the area this morning, and a second wave need to be watched for later in the day.

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The weather pattern has massively changed, and very different things are happening. This radar map alone is exhibit A to show a storm system that is producing wide spread rained thunderstorms over our area.  The rainfall rates were 1 to 2 inches per hour in these morning thunderstorms. Each thunderstorm has been only lasting a few minutes at each location, and they are lined up over the KC metro area with a large area of rain north and west of the heavier thunderstorms. This is just the first wave of rain from this storm system. Many more waves of energy will be tracking across the area through Tuesday, and then we get to monitor that late week system. Suddenly, it is different, in a great way for us weather enthusiasts in this part of the nation.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times this morning.  The rain may stop for a while, or reduce to drizzle.  There will be some lightning and thunder this morning. Temperatures dropping into the 50s
  • Tonight: Another round of rain arrives. Lows in the 50s.
  • Sunday:  Cool and wet with periods of rain and thunderstorms. There will likely be some breaks in the rain and one of those breaks is possible during the Chiefs game. Temperature warming into the 60s.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your Saturday morning reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Gary

As The Pattern Changes

Good morning bloggers,

Rain and a few thunderstorms area tracking across today.  Temperatures will be jumping into the 80s as a warm front moves through.  Today is likely the true finale to the old pattern, as the new LRC begins on Saturday morning.

The new pattern begins from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain and a few thunderstorms likely this morning. Some sun breaking out with a temperature surge to near or above 80 degrees. The chance of rain goes from 90% this morning to 10% this afternoon.
  • Tonight: Dry for Friday Night Lights. Temperatures dropping later tonight into the 50s
  • Saturday: A 100% chance of rain, possibly heavy at times during the morning. There may be a break in the rain by later in the day.  Temperatures falling  into the 50s and staying there.
  • Sunday:  Southeast winds return with a 100% chance of rain and a few thunderstorms. There may be a break in the rain for a few hours. High: 73°

Rainfall totals of 1″ to 5″ likely by Tuesday.

Have a great Friday. Go Chiefs! Go Patrick Mahomes! And, go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

A Wet Pattern Develops Just As The New LRC Sets Up

Good morning bloggers,

Last night was likely the finale of the old 2018-2019 LRC, the pattern that brought Kansas City a whopping seven inches of snow all of last winter, the third winter in a row with less than ten inches of snow. There had never been three straight years with below 10 inches of snow.  Will the 2018-2019 winter season make it four in a row? It is too early to tell, to make that call, to make that prediction.  We don’t use our gut feeling, although that is still a factor.  We use real science based on a new technology, and according to the LRC we don’t know what that pattern is yet. We will know in a few weeks.  These other winter forecasts that have been coming out are literally based on flaws in technology or just gut feelings based on past patterns. That doesn’t work well, as every years pattern is unique.  So, my point is, we are finally saying goodbye to last years pattern, and beginning this weekend we will be in a new pattern, and I think we will all agree by the end of the weekend, that something very different has happened. I knew that this would be one of the easiest years to see how this happens right now, and it is doing it.  Take a look at this rainfall forecast below:

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The models have 3 to 6 inch rainfall predictions for a large area of Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri, and also way up north over North Dakota.

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On this second map above, something very different in the pattern begins happening.  These changes are being caused by a storm digging into the western United States. Some rain will begin forming in response to the massive change taking place in the overall pattern.  If you look closely, there is an inverted trough developing in the surface pattern over eastern Kansas this evening. And, by Saturday morning, an active rainfall producing pattern will be developing and in the colder air.  This likely means colder air will be trapped over Kansas and Missouri with downpours in a band extending from north Texas to southern Iowa:

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And, then by Sunday, below, an even larger area of rain will be developing, with snow forming over the ski areas of Colorado and Wyoming.

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Again, this is all happening in response to a functioning storm system dropping into the western United States in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  It is very exciting to share this new pattern with all of the weather enthusiasts. Remember, it isn’t one storm that makes the LRC. There is a five to ten week pattern that is just now evolving, developing. So, please be patient before any conclusions are made.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers.  High:  59°
  • Tonight:  Rain likely.  Amounts will be under 1/2″.  Low:  55°
  • Friday:  Morning showers, and then southeast winds increasing with the rain shutting off for a few hours.  High:  60° north to 82° south.
  • Saturday:  A 100% chance of rain.  Most of the day has this chance, and yet there may still be a few hours where it doesn’t rain. Rainfall amounts of 1 – 3 inches possible. High:  58° (there will be a midnight high of 67°)
  • Sunday:  A 100% chance of rain with 1 – 2 inches possible.  High:  64°
  • Monday:  Mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of rain.  High:  77°

If this doesn’t “scream” that something new has just happened, then you likely haven’t been totally in tune with what we just experienced. I haven’t written a forecast like this in many years.  Have a great day everyone, and go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the great weather discussion.

Gary