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A Montana Storm Has Our Attention

Good evening bloggers,

There is a storm spinning in Montana, as you can see on this Water Vapor Satellite picture from 4:16 PM Tuesday.  The models are all handling this system in their own ways and the solutions vary widely.  This storm is forecast to move southeast across Kansas Thursday and then turn east.  How will it impact our area?

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The latest NAM model has another new solution, but still has some rain sneaking into the south side of Kansas City. We have a tough forecast ahead of us and Kalee will begin with an update at 4:30 AM.

Gary

A record-setting morning

Good morning Bloggers,

Let me start by asking how are you liking these refreshing and cool temperatures this morning?

Preliminary reports show that we broke two records this morning, one at KCI and Lawrence. At KCI, the low temperature bottomed out at 54° and in Lawrence temperatures bottomed out to 53°.

Here are the previous records for a few areas:

recordTuesAM

 

After this cool morning we are in store a cool and sunny afternoon.

Temps will continue to stay below average.

by the hour tues

High pressure will stay over the region today and into tomorrow.  Therefore, cool nights and cool days will continue.

NiceTuesday

Enjoy the next fall-like temperatures, because we warm back up this weekend and into early next week.

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Have a great day!

Michelle

www.twitter.com/MichelleApon

 

Welcome Fall to July

Good Morning Bloggers!

We have a great morning with sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Now the strong cold front we have been talking about for several days is dipping south into northern Missouri.  Here is a look at the surface map:

GFS1

Showers and thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of the front as it sinks to the south.  We are already seeing showers and thunderstorms in NW MO/NE KS right now.  This is a still shot of ESP Live radar as of 8 AM:

GFS

We will watch to see if this rain continues as it pushes south towards the Kansas City metro area.  It looks like the showers and thunderstorms will be dropping into the KC Metro area by around noon and here is a still shot of our Powercast at about 10 AM  and it is mainly along and north of I-70.  Rainfall totals from today won’t be much with a half inch being the most in the rain gauge.

ECMWF

Temperatures are tricky today because of the rain chance this afternoon.  We will warm up quickly until noon and then we will drop when the rain moves into the area.  Here is a look at the hour by hour forecast I put together.  If we see the rain then our temperatures will drop to the upper 60s or lower 70s for the early afternoon and then once the rain moves out we will warm up a little bit.

dishwasher

Then welcome Fall! Tomorrow morning you may need a jacket as you head off to work in the morning.  Temperatures will start off in the lower 50s and could be we break a record?  We will have to wait and see!

Have a great day!

Kalee Dionne

 

So-long Summer…

Cold front moved through the area last night, as expected. It sure did take its sweet time though. That said, radar estimate indicated some areas with 2.50″ to 3.00″ of rainfall (I saw this near the Maryville area). The official reports via the NWS, indicate much smaller values.
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As usual, your backyard measuring device will likely vary just a bit. And no, not everyone got nice, meaningful rain. There will be some areas with cracks in the ground still or dry birdbaths. Ain’t nobody walking this planet that can change that, so all we can do is hope for the next rain chance. Which, oddly enough, is just around the corner.

Here this evening, we have a few smaller thunderstorms ongoing to the South of the Metro, thanks to the lingering cold front.
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These storms will continue to move to the East as the evening rolls on. I do not see a threat for rain or thunderstorms in Kansas City. Any outdoor plans you have should be just fine.

A second cold front is advancing to the area as we speak. I expect this to clear the Nebraska/Kansas state line by 7am Monday morning. As it does, there is a chance we see a few storms bubble up along the Iowa/Missouri line. Those would be to the North and Northeast of the Chillicothe area.
By the afternoon, that front will slowly drop South and should be over the Metro area around midday.
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Once the front goes through, you’ll know it! So-long to Summer. The humidity should start to decrease and you’ll likely “feel” the air get cooler. Through the evening Monday, temps will drop pretty fast and by the time we get to Tuesday morning, it will be a world of difference for us.
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Sleep with the windows open Monday night, but have a blanket nearby; you may need it. Matter of fact, we will likely set or tie a few record lows Tuesday morning. There are four locations to keep eyes on, two in particular.
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One just happens to be Kansas City, how about that? We are forecast a low Tuesday morning of 53°. If that happens, it would beat out the record of 56° from 1990. Incredible. But it also goes to show that this stuff does happen.

Enjoy your Sunday evening and be sure to catch the latest forecast tonight at 10p on 41 Action News.
-JD

Sunday Morning T-Storms & Cold Front #2

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

A band of showers and thunderstorms is tracking through the area this morning as cold front #1 moves through.  We could use the rain after the recent dry and hotter days.  Rainfall amounts are ranging from .05″ to .65″.

MAP #1: Radar from 725 AM Sunday

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This area of showers and thunderstorms will move off to the southeast and fall apart by noon.  So, it will be a dry, warm and humid this afternoon as this first cold front is a more typical summer front.

MAP #2: 3 PM Sunday

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Cold front #2 arrives Monday and this one is rather strong for July.  Temperatures will fall to near record or record lows behind this front.  There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front, but amounts will be a trace-.50″.

MAP #3: Noon Monday

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The front will blow through Monday, so that by evening it will be breezy as the cool blast arrives.  Temperatures will be in the 70s with the humidity dropping.

MAP #4: 7 PM Monday

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Lows Tuesday morning will drop to the low to mid 50s.  We are forecasting a low in KC of 54° which would tie a record set back in 1975. What a great break from the heat and humidity!

MAP #5: 7 AM Tuesday, Lows Forecast

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Lows will drop to the 40s across much of the corn belt.  This is a bit cool for the corn.  This is July, so the cool spell will moderate and end and after 2-3 days.

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Have a great day!

Jeff

From flip-flops & sweaty, to long-sleeves and comfy

10PM Update
Starting to see activity fire up rapidly along the tri-state line. This will likely be the round of thunderstorms that get your attention overnight.
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9PM  Update

The atmosphere has been well behaved in our area tonight. No warnings to speak of, and that’s good. We’ve seen one little cluster of storms move across the state, but it continues to weak as it does. This is the radar as of the top of the hour:
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This is part of the weak cold front that is pressing through the region tonight. This front extends all the way back through Kansas.
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As that front oozes South, it will likely spark off a few more storms overnight. Part of that will be due to the Low-Level Jet getting involved. And I took a look at the latest Skew-T sounding for KMCI, it indicates there is still a bit of a “cap” in place. [The cap is what we call an invisible layer in the atmosphere that prevents warm air from the surface from rising too high and creating t-storms. Think of it as a lid on a pop bottle. Shake up the bottle and it wants to burst, but the cap prevents this from happening. Remove the cap, and things go crazy. Same sort of situation in the atmosphere. The technical term for the cap is: Convective Inhibition, abbreviated as CIN or CINH. We will sometimes pronounce it as "sin".]

I am working on the latest version of a Powercast. The RPM model continues to handle this the best. The RPM is an exclusive model to certain TV stations and cannot be found online by the public. But it is a great resource to have and gives us another valuable opinion when forecasting the future.

PREVIOUS ENTRY
As of this entry, KCI is at 91° which ties with the warmest reading we have had all year. You toss in the humidity, it’s just disgusting out there. Check out the heat index values. This is the kind of weather where you need to make sure you are staying properly hydrated if you will be outside for a long period of time (like a Royals game).
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Of course, once the sun starts to set, the temps will ease and it won’t feel as miserable out there. In addition, tonight we have a weak cold front that will press into the area. Given the heat, humidity, and this forcing mechanism, I do believe we could see a few t-storms overnight. The problem I see, however, is that with all the warm air, we’ll have a generous cap in place. Plus, the front isn’t THAT strong. Thus, I am thinking we’ll have a few scattered to isolated storms here and there overnight.
The latest RPM model offers up its opinion:
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And the HRRR suggests a similar idea.
HRRR

That said, between now and midnight, we’ll need to watch along the Iowa/Missouri state line for evening development. Should a storm break through the cap, it may quickly grow and get close to severe strength (a “severe thunderstorm” is defined as having hail quarter size or larger, or winds over 58mph).

There is a TORNADO WATCH in place for Northern Missouri until midnight tonight. As storms are already starting to bubble. This was issued as I was writing the blog. Caused me a bit of delay in publishing. I will continue to monitor this, but my feeling is that the strongest storms will stay in Iowa or at least right along the state line.
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As we look down the line, we have another front set to come through on Monday. This one will be much stronger thanks to the jetstream taking a major dive to the South.
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As you have no doubt heard by now, this will bring a major drop in temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday especially. Instead of highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, we’ll be in the middle 70s. And those are just afternoon temperatures. Mornings will be in the 50s, so you may need to dig out a light jacket. Crazy, huh?

If you’re wondering, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a dip in the jetstream which has caused a significant decrease in temperatures. Recall these days this year?
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I will continue to monitor things this evening and provide updates as needed.
-JD

Two Cold Fronts, One Strong for July

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

Today will likely be the hottest day of the summer, so far as highs reach the low 90s.  We are forecasting a high of 92° which would be the highest official high at KCI this season.  The heat and humidity will end Monday as we track two cold fronts.

MAP #1: Saturday Afternoon

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Cold front #1 arrives early Sunday and it will be accompanied by a weakening line of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This first front will drop highs to the 80s, but the humidity will stay high.

MAP #2: 11 AM Sunday

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Cold front #2 arrives Monday.  This is the front we have been talking about for days.  This front will bring record or near record cold lows next week.  Record cold in July is a good thing as it means refreshing and comfortable temperatures.  This second front will be accompanied by a band of showers and a few thunderstorms.  Some spots could see .25″ to 1″.

MAP #3: 3 PM Monday

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Tuesday through Thursday of next week will see highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s along with abundant sunshine and low humidity. This is a rare July event to have temperatures that cool with sunshine for 3 days in a row.

Here is the forecast lows and the record lows for next Tuesday-Thursday

TUESDAY:

Forecast low: 54°  Record low: 54° (1975)

WEDNESDAY:

Forecast low: 55°  Record low: 54° (1990)

THURSDAY:

Forecast low: 58° Record low: 56° (1990)

All three of our forecast lows could be 1 to 3 degrees colder.  Remember, it has never been colder than 52° officially in KC in July since records began.  One of the mornings could break that all time record!

Also, it does dry out quickly this time of year and so far we have not really needed our sprinklers.  These next two cold fronts will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.  However, due to the big cool/dry air mass settling south, the rain chances are very low the rest of the work week.  The best rain chances during the week will be in the high plains where the Gulf moisture gets pushed west by the big surface high pressure.

In order to keep the yard green you need 1.50″ to 2″ of rain per week.  Last week we did receive 1″ to 2″ of rain, but that was Monday night, so our lawns need a drink.  The rain the next 3 days will likely not be enough to satisfy the yards, except in a few spots.

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Our rainfall forecast the next 3 days is a trace to 1″.  This means some yards will see a few drops, while others could see up to an 1″.

Have a great weekend!

Jeff

 

 

Strong July Cold Front Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

A strong July cold front will approach the area by early Monday.

In our summer forecast, based on the LRC and the cycling weather pattern, we forecasted that the “corn will be as high as your eye by the Fourth of July”. And, it has happened.  The weather conditions for the farmers planting corn this season have been almost perfect, and next week’s cool down will help as well.  Jadiann Thompson, our evening anchor woman, was on her way back from the Lake of the Ozark’s after the Fourth of July weekend and she had this picture snapped:

Jadiann Corn2

She told me that she wasn’t wearing any make-up, and she said I could use the picture.  Jadiann, you look great!  And as you can see the forecast is verified with the corn higher than her eye, as it actually was a foot above her in most spots.

Now, this next cold front will come after around two to three hot days.  And, yes this is all related to the LRC. Next week’s cold front and Great Lake’s upper low is right on the LRC cycle that you can learn more about on the Weather2020 site.  Next week’s big upper low is almost identical to the huge upper low on January 25th. Yes, July and January and 171 days apart, or 57 day cycle.

Now, let’s look at this cold front that will be approaching later this weekend:

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This map above shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere.  The deep upper low is just part of the cycling weather pattern, and right on schedule and forecast by our weather team over 100 days ago to cycle through during the middle of July. This is not because of any typhoon as reported in some other blog, it is just part of this regularly cycling pattern.   And, at the surface the cold front is gaining strength as it approaches Monday morning:

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What does all of this mean?

  • Today-Sunday:  Heating up with highs likely in the 90s. This will be the hottest three day stretch of the summer so far.
  • Monday:  A cold front will move through with a good chance of rain and potentially heavy thunderstorms.
  • Tuesday:  A record breaking cold July air mass will be expanding over the United States.  Records will be broken for a couple of days
  • Next two to three weeks:  The part of the pattern that started producing our regular rainfall chances will be returning

What a summer we are having so far.  And, today is an exciting day.  I will be in the Royals radio broadcast booth in the 4th inning tonight with Denny Matthews and Ryan Lefebvre, two radio legends.  I may just break out into some play by play, one of my dreams as a child was to do play by play.  We will be talking about our weather partnership with the KC Royals. And, hopefully the Royals will bounce back tonight on Friday Night In The Big Town.

Have a great day bloggers! I hope you are  having a nice summer!  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

Quiet Thursday… then, the weather goes wacky

This has really been an un-summery summer. Our highs have been all over the place, we continue to see episodes of severe weather, and it has yet to go “hot and dry”, as most summers tend to do. Today will be a pretty quiet, low-key day. But after this, we go for a wild weather ride.

Take a look at the actual highs vs average highs for KCI since June 1st. Those have been all over the place. It has been as warm as 91° for a high and as cool as 71° for a high. Plus we had a night where lows dropped into the lower 50s.
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We’re about to go through this stuff again over the next week. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s over the weekend, then a significant push of cold air will slide in for next week. This is what the GFS is advertising for Tuesday:
500GFS
This would indicate surface temperatures in the middle 70s…in mid July!

And the GFS is not the only longer range model that is picking up on cooler air. This is what the European (ECMWF) model believes will happen next week:

Incredible to think we’ll struggle to reach the middle 70s in the heart of July. Either way, as it stands now, this is how our highs may stack up over the next week:
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And by the way, there is a chance we see more record cold lows as overnight temps may fall to the low 50s by Wednesday morning. Blankets…in July?

This change in weather does not come without some bumps in the road too. We have a risk for severe weather on Saturday as a front will nudge into the area. Already the Storm Prediction Center has Northern Missouri outlooked for a “Slight Risk”.
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Between now and Saturday there are still chances for rain and a few t-storms, but at this time, nothing severe. The chance on Friday will be mainly in far Northeast Missouri. Then on Monday we have another chance for rain and storms in the area as well. Needless to say, we’re in a bit of an active pattern over the area. We will continue to monitor the trends and track the storms as they move into the region.

-JD

Another Great Day, But What About Thursday?

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny with some clouds increasing and developing, especially west.  High:  84°
  • Tonight:  Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms late, most likely west of the state line later tonight. Low:  64
  • Thursday:  Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain and a few thunderstorms, again most likely near and west of the state line.  High:  82°

Weather Discussion:

It has been a wet beginning to July, but at this time of the year you really need around two inches of rain per week to equal out evaporation.  Rainfall this month is already above average with the over 2 inches of rain that fell at KCI Airport Monday night. Here is the rainfall total so far:

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Complexes of thunderstorms have been numerous this season, once they got going a few weeks ago. The latest one, from Monday night, was the second largest I have seen this season, but it moved fast enough to limit rainfall totals to around a 2 inch maximum near Kansas City. We call these complexes Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS).  Here is the one from Monday:

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We are again in a northwest flow pattern around a deep upper low north of the Great Lakes.  The next disturbance is already approaching and the forecast is a difficult one for our viewing area.  Here is the flow from last night:

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The jet stream will lift north for a few days and this will allow for a big warm-up into the lower 90s by the weekend.  And, then the jet stream will head back down to the south next week leading to more chances for MCS activity and another pretty strong summer cold front next week.  We will look deeper into this next part of the summer pattern later in the week. For now, today will be another beautiful summer day so let’s enjoy it.

I have been invited to be a guest on the Royals radio broadcast Friday evening while Detroit is in town.  I think I will be interviewed for an inning around the 3rd or 4th inning. I may have to break out into some play by play for a batter, if they will let me. Try to listen Friday night!  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.  Have a great Wednesday, and be sure to watch 41 Action News for Kansas City’s most accurate forecast today and tonight.

Gary