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A Weekend Storm System

Good morning bloggers,

A weak cold front is moving through today and it will be followed up by a much strong cold front on Sunday.  There are still a lot of questions to answer for Sunday’s storm system and we will go over a few of them here, and then we will have your most accurate forecast on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Here is one of many possible surface solutions valid Sunday morning:

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The models are having a hard time in the evolution of this weekend storm system, but every model has a pretty good amount of rain being modeled for our area as you can see below on this rainfall forecast.

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The new data was not as bullish on rainfall totals, so here we go again bloggers! We will get more specific on 41 Action News and tomorrow in the blog.

JD Rudd is filling in for Kalee Dionne this morning. Kalee went to New York City and met up with Al Roker yesterday and the Today Show crew. She will catch us up on her trip next week.  And, our news team took some pictures yesterday.  Here is one fun shot of Jadianne Thompson, Jack Harry, and myself.

Gary Jadi Jack

 

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

A Stretch of Decent Spring Weather

Good Wednesday morning bloggers,

We are at the start of the longest stretch of nice weather so far this year!  We are expecting 4 straight very nice Spring days.  Actually, today will be the most annoying as winds gust to 30-35 mph.  Below we will take you day by day through Sunday.  The nice weather comes to a screeching halt on Sunday.

TODAY:

We are in a Red Flag Warning for an enhanced fire danger.  This due to the warmer temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds and dry brush.  The grass is starting to green and this will help to reduce the fire danger.  Also, the Red Flag Warning is not in effect southeast of I-35 as there will be less wind and conditions are more moist.

THURSDAY:

A weak front will move through with little moisture.  So, no rain is expected with the front.  We will have a 10 degree temperature drop along with a reduction in wind.  Although, winds may gust 15-25 mph for a time.

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FRIDAY:

This will be another nice day as high rebound to the 70s along with a light wind.  A weak disturbance will race by early in the morning and could spawn a few showers and thunderstorms.  In the map below, you can see a bit of rain in eastern Missouri.  This is a 5 PM map, so this would move through our area 5-10 Am Friday.

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SATURDAY:

This is the weekend day to get things done outdoors.  The weather looks great as highs reach the mid 70s along with a 10-20 mph breeze.  It will even be a bit humid as dew points rise to the 50s.  But, as you can see there is a cold blast organizing in the northern Plains.  This will be headed in Saturday night-Sunday along with a storm system coming out of the Rockies.

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SUNDAY:

What a change!  The cold front by later Sunday will have blasted south into the southern Plains.  We will have a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night with the front.  This will then be followed by a cold rain, north winds 15-25 mph and temperatures falling from the 50s to 40s on Sunday.  We do need the rain and hopefully amounts will be .25″ to 1″ or more.  We will be updating the latest on this next storm system and cold blast the rest of this week.

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The cold air will likely lead to a freeze Monday and/or Tuesday mornings.  So, like we said yesterday, our advice is to hold off on planting the tender vegetation until early May.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Morning Showers, Warmer Days Ahead

Good Tuesday morning bloggers,

One last disturbance is moving through this morning and has produced a band of showers that is quickly moving south.  The rest of the day will be dry, breezy and cool with the scattered showers mainly across southern Missouri.

Here is the radar from 830 AM.  Amounts were trace-.05″.  The April showers will help bring the May flowers!

RADAR APRIL 8

Also, I caught this rainbow on the way to work.  It did not last long, but a nice way to start the day!

RAINBOW APRIL 8

Tomorrow morning will start cold, but then much better weather moves in.

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If you have been waiting for more than one day in a row of decent Spring weather, you are about to get your wish.  Tomorrow will be windy, but highs will reach near 75° with abundant sunshine.  A cold front will move through Thursday, but it is not that strong, so highs will cool to the 60s to near 70°.  There will still be plenty of sunshine and with the front nearby as high pressure moves in, the winds will be much less.

WEDNESDAY:

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THURSDAY:

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Friday will also be nice with highs near 70.  Saturday warms into the 70s ahead of another change in the weather.  A strong cold front arrives Saturday night with a good chance of thunderstorms.  Sunday looks windy and cold with a chance of rain, so we will get 4 decent days in a row!

The cold could lead to a freeze next Monday and a few more freezes will be possible, so I would wait to plant the tender vegetation until early May.

Have a great day!

Jeff Penner

Another Freeze Is Likely

Good morning bloggers,

It will start out cool and cloudy this week with a chance of some light precipitation.  And, then it will warm up big time, but then this will be followed by a strong weekend cold front that will bring a chance of thunderstorms and the likelihood of another freeze by early next week.

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The weather pattern is cycling into the part of the weather pattern that brought Kansas City it’s first inch of snow on the Plaza to end the snowflake contest.  A strong cold front will likely move through by Sunday with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms, and it will be followed by a freeze next week.  Read more about the pattern and the accurate weather forecast made for the Master’s Golf Tournament on the Weather2020.com weather blog:  Another Accurate Long Range Forecast

Have a great start to the week. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the ActionWeather Blog!

Gary

A Freeze This Morning

Good morning bloggers,

We will be at the Nebraska Furniture Mart at noon today.  Kalee Dionne, JD Rudd, Michelle Apon, Jeff Penner, & Stormy The Weather Dog will be there to meet you, talk about the weather, and take pictures.  Our Storm Chasers will be there as well including Intercept Images, F5 Chasers, & the MSTAR chase team.  They will have their Chase Vehicles with them to see as well.  The first 300 people the come to the event will get one of these 41 Action News Flashlights.  And, our chasers have some other free things and a drawing as well.

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The low temperature this morning dropped to 30 degrees. The average date for our last freeze is around April 8th to 15th.   So, we are almost done with freezes. There may be one more frost or freeze in the next couple of weeks as this pattern continues to cycle.

The weather this weekend has calmed down, but there is a storm that will be developing as it passes by our area late Sunday into Monday. It will be an efficient rain producer over the southern states, but we may only see clouds with a few sprinkles or light rain showers.

Have a great weekend, and we hope to see you today!

Gary Lezak

Calmer Weather for a Few Days

Good Friday bloggers,

The big storm from this week is racing away through the Great Lakes.  So, what is next?

First, today, is the home opener for the Royals and this afternoon we will see less wind and more sun as the storm moves away.  So, we should reach the low 50s by the 7th inning.  It will be cool, but not nearly as unpleasant as this morning.  Also, this season 41 Action News is the official forecast for the Royals, exciting!  So you will see our forecast on the big screen before each home game.

Here is the forecast for this afternoon.

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Now to the weekend weather.  A surface high pressure will be overhead tonight and early Saturday.  This means a clear, calm and cold night with perfect radiational cooling conditions.  Lows tonight will drop to the mid/upper 20s, a hard freeze.  There may be 1-2 more freezes this month so you may want to hold off planting the delicate vegetation until early may.

Saturday afternoon will be a nice day with highs near 60° and a light wind along with plenty of sunshine.

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Sunday will also be a nice day with highs around 60°, but there will be more clouds as a new storm system organizes in the southern Plains.  We will talk more about this storm this weekend, but it will likely stay south bringing heavy rain to southern Missouri into the Midwest.  We will get lots of clouds and some showers Monday.

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Remember our entire weather team will be out at Nebraska Furniture Mart between noon and 3 PM Saturday.

Have a great weekend!

Jeff

Severe Weather Risk Already Over For KC

Good afternoon bloggers,

Thunderstorms are forming southeast of Kansas City ahead of an advancing low pressure area and front. The risk is now ending west of this line.  Here is a look at radar from Live:ESP at close to 2 PM:

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Here is the 2 PM surface map:

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The surface storm is now on the move and by 7 PM the surface low may be approaching the Iowa border. This will pull the colder air back in here and the risk of severe weather will quickly shift off to the east of our viewing area by 6 or 7 PM.  Have a great evening!

Gary

Severe Weather Potential

NFM Weather Day

Good morning bloggers,

Our weather special “15 Minutes To Act” is on tonight at 6:30 PM right after the 6 PM newscast.  Will we be in continuous coverage at that point with tornado risks, or will the thunderstorms already by far off to our was by then?

2A moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center fro a large part of Missouri south into Arkansas and east into parts of Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. It also extends south into northern Louisiana.  Kansas City is on the western edge of today’s risk. Thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon, line up, and then push rapidly off to the northeast and east.  A strong storm system aloft is now moving out into the plains and a surface cyclone will intensify today.  As this system moves east warm and very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transferred northward and will be the fuel to help ignite the thunderstorms this afternoon.

Here it the tornado risk:

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Will this affect our viewing area today? It continues to look like thunderstorms will erupt near the surface low and south along the advancing cold front by mid-afternoon. The earlier it develops the more likely we will be significantly impacted.  The severe weather potential window for our viewing area will be from 2 PM until 9 PM tonight. By 8 or 9 PM the thunderstorms will likely be moving east into central and southern Missouri.

This morning’s surface map shows the rather dramatic temperature gradient:

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Kansas City is really on the edge of any potential dangerous weather today. If anything does develop early to mid-afternoon it will likely quickly move off to the east. Central and eastern Missouri will be the much bigger targets today.

How much rain have you had so far during this two day storm?

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. We hope to meet you and visit with you at the Nebraska Furniture Mart Saturday afternoon.

Gary

Thunderstorms Forming!

Good evening bloggers,

It could get pretty busy in the next few hours here in the Forecast Center.  Here is a look at the 6:30 PM radar:

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We will keep you updated on 41 Action News.  Let us know what you experience.

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Gary

Morning Thunderstorms

NFM Weather Day

Good morning bloggers,

A strong storm system is developing to our west and this will affect us into Friday.  The first round of thunderstorms is moving through early this morning.  Here is the 4 AM Radar image showing the thunderstorms increasing and moving northeast into the KC metro area.

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The thunderstorms then became much more wide spread with some small hail. These have been below severe limits, which is excellent. We are just getting beneficial rainfall this morning and we really need it.

Check this out: Forecasters Find New Formula For Long-Range Weather I wonder what this is all about. I am not sure, but if it is related to the LRC it would be disturbing to me. Not sure?  What do you all think?  And, by the way, this storm system, we are now experiencing, is the one we predicted 60 days ago for this exact date!  Bizarro Jerry, one of our long time blog commenters, wondered months ago what this storm would do around April 2nd. I answered his comment by saying it may be spring or a late winter version of the storm system that has now happened in each LRC cycle. Spring is winning out with the hail falling from these thunderstorms today, but the winter side of this storm will impact Nebraska, Iowa and northwestern Kansas.

day1otlk_1300The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk from around St. Joseph southward. The SPC has no risk of tornadoes in our viewing area right now. We have to watch a warm front that is north of Springfield and Joplin, MO right now. How far north will that front move today?  I think it will actually pass through by around midnight or shortly there after.  Warm advection thunderstorms will again be possible north of the warm front and these could be a bit stronger than this morning’s activity. And, then the stage is setting up for a severe weather outbreak on Thursday most likely east of Kansas City. But, we could be in the developing area. It will depend on where the surface low tracks, and some models track this strengthening surface low right near Kansas City late Thursday afternoon.

Watch “15 Minutes To Act”, our severe weather special Thursday night at 6:30 PM. Well, unless we have actual severe weather coverage tomorrow evening.  Have a great day and let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary