Good morning bloggers,
There are some big changes taking place in the weather pattern during the next seven to ten days. Suddenly, we have been getting some badly needed rain, although we still need a lot more. There is a pretty good chance that we will have above average rainfall during the next two weeks as we go into the wettest time of the year, and I am expecting a wet second half of May after a drier first half of next month. So, this second half of April is important for our soil moisture. Right now, there is a cut-off low, weather person’s woe, spinning around over the four corner states.
The upper low, as of 1 PM today, will be spinning per the Colorado/New Mexico border. The main jet stream, as seen above, is tracking across Canada. Look at the dip over western Canada. That is the beginning of a series of waves that will dive southeast and end up picking up the cut-off low:
Look at what happens to that big upper low. It literally becomes a weak disturbance over southeastern Kansas by Sunday evening. I tracked the upper low over the next 48 hours, and this is what’s left of it by 7 PM Sunday. There will be a good chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms as the upper low gets picked up. Rainfall amounts will be likely in the 1/2″ range at the minimum to over 2″ of rain in a few spots between now and Sunday night.
After this goes by, something happens to the pattern that hasn’t quite materialized all year. Take a look at the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation:
The NAO and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are forecast to into the negative territory by the middle of next week. This will likely be the biggest dip into negative territory all season, since October. When the AO and NAO go into negative territory it implies that there is a good chance of blocking developing at high latitudes, and look at what is forecast to happen later next week:
An upper level high height area is forecast to develop over southern Greenland. This is going to be part of a likely blocking pattern, and a storm will likely get caught diving southeast into the southwestern United States. This pattern will produce some severe weather set-ups later next week, some cold air surging south to near KC, and likely some good chances of heavy rain in our area. Let’s see how it sets up.
Have a great day. Let’s hope there aren’t any showers and thunderstorms this evening. We are the official meteorologists for the Kansas City Royals, and they are back home for a big Friday night game. The first three games had all kinds of weather issues for our team to forecast, and we have another series of weather forecast problems to sort out this weekend. We will be monitoring it closely. You can follow me on twitter and I will provide updates if anything is heading our way. My twitter handle is glezak. It’s FRIDAY!
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The focal point of our forecast is a finicky area of low pressure that has become stranded in Western Colorado. Perhaps it missed a connecting flight, that’s happened to me before…
This is the area in question and as the loop shows, the counterclockwise swirl is easy to spot.
Ah, the ol’ “weatherman’s woe”.
Because of that cutoff low, various little pieces of energy are going to be flung out and head this way. Combined with a little bit of moisture in place, it could be enough to generate some hit and miss showers in the region over the next couple days.
Based on the newest information, however, it appears the better chances for rain will stay West of Kansas City for Thursday and most of Friday. That said, by Friday night, the little system will start to wobble out of the Rockies and drift toward KC. This will help to boost our chances for rain.
As it stands now, I don’t think we’ll have a threat of a rain out for the Royals game Friday night. Could there be a sprinkle or two? Perhaps. The newest indications are that this system will take its sweet time to progress Eastward, so that will delay the timing on rain. Let’s hope it slows down even more, right?
Once we get into Sunday, that thing pulls away and our rain chances fall down again. Between now and then, we should warm up nicely. Especially if we can get enough sunshine on Thursday/Friday.
Overall, we’re in luck because we’re getting some needed rainfall without severe weather; that’s always a plus.
I’ll be in again Thursday covering for Gary. Of course, there will be more new information and we’ll fine-tune the forecast as needed.
Enjoy your evening,
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Good Tuesday evening bloggers,
We are now tracking two weather systems. The first is for later tonight and Wednesday. This is a small one and is now located over Oklahoma. There are areas of light rain associated with this system. Tonight and Wednesday this system will be heading north, spreading the thick clouds and showers our way.
630 AM WEDNESDAY: You can see areas of light rain moving through. They will be moving from south to north and will likely impact the morning rush hour. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
3 PM WEDNESDAY: The rain will be pretty much over with a leftover thick overcast and highs struggling to reach 60°
FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: As you can see this is a light event with amounts mostly between .05″ to .15″.
The bigger storm is due in on Friday. There are many questions with this storm. Will it last one day or three days? Will we see much rain at all, as what will the track be? There are many events this weekend, such as the return home of the best team in baseball. The Royals and A’s play all weekend and the Friday night game may be sold out. Also, America Ninja Warrior is going on Friday night at Union Station. The KC film fest is going on this weekend as well.
Since there is much uncertainty at this time, let’s not panic on the ruining of outdoor activities. The rain could move in Friday and be over by Friday night. Or, if the storm goes on for three days it will not rain every hour. So, let’s see what it looks like the next few days.
Have a great night and Wednesday.
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Good Monday bloggers,
Wow! Some locations went from needing rain to high water issues during the last 24 hours. Areas south of the river have seen 1-2″ with some spots around 2.50″. This is good news as this part of the city has been quite dry. It did lead to some high water issues at several intersections early this morning.
Ok, what is next?
The rest of today into Tuesday will be dry with many clouds, most of them of the cirrus variety, allowing the sun to shine through them from time to time.
This is being caused by a weak storm system sitting in the southern Plains. This system will remain there through Tuesday.
This system will begin a northward track Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will be rather weak at that time. So, on Wednesday we will see thicker clouds and areas of light rain and sprinkles. There is another system for the end of the week and weekend. Most data the last 24 hours slowly tracked this system from the Rockies to Plains to Midwest between Thursday and Sunday, very slow. This would mean rain and thunderstorm chances around here each of those days. However, the 6Z GFS brings the system through by Thursday, meaning just one day of rain then nice. It will take a day or two to figure this out.
Have a great week.
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Rain and thunderstorm rattled through the area this morning and now another batch is in the oven, getting ready to cook this way. While severe weather is not expected, a stronger storm or two isn’t totally out of the question.
This is the radar picture as of this evening.
Notice the activity bubbling in Central Kansas. We’ll have to keep eyes on that and see if it adheres to the guidance. So far, so good. As it stand right now, if you have any plans this evening, you shouldn’t have to worry about rain ruining anything.
As you notice, I am expecting activity to move into the area after about 10pm. This is still my latest thinking on overall timing.
Of course, this is still subject to change just a bit. The general theme here is that this still will shake, rattle, and roll its way through the area and be (mostly) gone by daybreak Monday. I am not worried about a wet commute, however, the roads and grass may still be a bit wet as you and kids head out. Something to keep in mind.
As of 7pm, these are the rainfall amounts from the last 24 hours:
We’ll certainly add to those a bit tonight.
Clouds & sunshine will chase each other through the day Monday and we should wind up not too far from average with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Not much different for Tuesday.
Taking a quick look ahead, the guidance suggests we go right back into the unsettled patterned for the latter half of the week and weekend. The GFS is the more aggressive model right now, painting a picture that includes rain on every day Wednesday through Sunday, except for Thursday.
The Euro model is not as aggressive and keep the rain just on the edge of the coverage area for Thursday. It says any rain Friday is South of I-70 and then paints Saturday mostly dry.
The trend in the last week or so has been for the GFS to get aggressive, only to then fall more in line with the Euro. So I’m going to lean that way a tad for now.
When it comes to temperatures, nothing dramatic in the works. Highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 40s & 50. All in all, somewhat typical for this time of year.
My thanks to Jeff for picking up my slack Saturday, thus having a short turnaround going into this morning. I was at a wedding in Wichita Saturday and was given some interesting looks when I warned them rain would likely be falling by the end of the ceremony. And it was. But I thought rain on a wedding day was actually good luck!
Hope you all have a great evening and if there are any updates to be had, I’ll add them to this blog.
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We need the rain as we are about 2″ below average for the year. This is not horrible at the moment, but the deficits can add up fast this time of year. Today and tonight some areas may see totals of .50″ to 2″ of rain between the two rounds.
Round #1 is moving through this morning with some beneficial rain for the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop in Kansas right into our area. The rain will last until the last wave moves through. The last wave is located northwest of Wichita and it will move through by noon.
This afternoon will be mostly dry and mostly cloudy with highs getting to around 70.
2 PM SUNDAY: Here is our latest powercast. As you can see most of the rain is gone with just clouds left behind.
10 PM SUNDAY: New thunderstorms will be forming as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The first thunderstorms may form well ahead of the front from a possible leftover boundary from the morning activity.
13o AM MONDAY: The main part of the second round of thunderstorms will occur between 10 PM and 3 AM tonight as the front pushes through. There is a slight risk of severe weather tonight for mostly hail. Since the thunderstorms are moving through at night, the instability will be lower so most thunderstorms will likely be below severe limits. The stronger thunderstorms will produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning and small hail. A couple of them may contain quarter sized hail If this happens then there will be a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. It is not out of the question that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued.
8 AM MONDAY: The rain will be long gone by the Monday morning rush hour. There roads may be left damp to wet, but no rain will be falling.
Have a great week ahead and enjoy the rain. Meteorologist JD Rudd will have an update later today on the blog and he will be on air at 5 and 10 PM.
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Good Saturday bloggers,
We are looking at some very nice weather today with morning clouds giving way to a mostly sunny sky and highs in the low 70s. This morning there have been areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms from southeast Kansas to west Texas. These are being caused by small disturbances coming out of the southwest and warm/moist air returning from the Gulf of Mexico. The features are weak and so the rain is not that intense.
This very same thing will repeat tonight and Sunday morning, but a state further north. This will put us in an area for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Right now this does not look like much, but we could see trace-.25″ with a few spots seeing .50″.
10 PM TONIGHT: The showers/thunderstorms will likely be heading our way, so our chances of rain go up after midnight.
430 AM SUNDAY: The scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around. Hopefully, your yard or farm receive some rain.
9 PM SUNDAY: The best chance of rain may be Sunday night as a weak cold front arrives. Highs will reach the 70s with dew points around 60. So, we could see a nice line or two of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of severe weather is rather low as we are in a marginal risk which is one level below a slight risk. A few thunderstorms will have small hail and quarter sized hail. A thunderstorm with quarter sized hail will prompt a severe thunderstorm warning, so this may happen in a few thunderstorms. We need the rain as we are about 2″ below average for the year.
Monday and Tuesday will be nice with the next rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.
Have a great weekend.
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Good morning bloggers,
We are having our Weather Awareness Day out at The Nebraska Furniture Mart Saturday from noon until 3 PM. Kalee Dionne, myself, our storm chasers, and maybe Stormy The Weather Dog will be there. Stormy is coming if I think she feels great on Saturday morning. She is almost 14 1/2 years old.
Yesterday was a bad day in Illinois as a few strong tornadoes caused damage and casualties. Here is a picture of one of the tornadoes around 80 miles west of Chicago.
I think we would all agree that we need some rain. Well, rain is in the forecast on Sunday. There are two forcing mechanisms that will bring a good chance of thunderstorms, and possibly some severe weather Sunday evening. The first wave of energy is coming in from the west southwest Saturday night, and the second potential round of showers and thunderstorms is coming in from the northwestern part of the nation Sunday evening. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night with a chance of a line of strong thunderstorms. The NAM model had a lot of rain and thunderstorms here Sunday morning and again Sunday night. Let’s see how it evolves.
The Masters Golf Tournament is going on and the severe weather risk is shifting to the south over Georgia today. We have not only been making accurate long range forecasts on Weather2020 for you to read, but we have also had these video forecasts. I do believe I posted this one weeks ago on this blog. It is verifying, a video forecast made over a month ago for this week. Not bad! Take a look:
And, we also made another video for this week. Take a look at this one which picked out this week’s severe weather for storm chasers:
Have a great day. We will keep you updated over the weekend. I hope you enjoyed today’s video forecasts. It’s Friday. I hope we get to meet you at the Nebraska Furniture Mart on Saturday from noon until 3 PM.
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Good morning bloggers,
Come to the Nebraska Furniture Mart on Saturday from noon until 3 PM for our Weather Awareness Day. Kalee Dionne and I will be out there. We look forward to seeing everyone. We can talk about anything you want to, and our storm chasers will be there as well!
Windy and turning colder before the game. Temperatures dropping into the 40s or 50s with very windy conditions up to 30 mph, and gusts could be over 40 mph. Hold onto your baseball hats today!
Take a look at this morning’s surface map:
That cold front is surging this way, and it will impact the Royals game this afternoon as they go for 3 and OH! Oh boy are they hot to start the season. The colder air will move in before the game starts, but it should be moderating a bit during the day. It could drop all the way into the 40s if it doesn’t moderate. There is a band or rain and thunderstorms along the front.
Well, yesterday was a rather major severe weather forecast bust day. It was not a good day for the Storm Prediction Center, and they just didn’t even know when the risk had ended. I blogged about it on Weather2020.com, and we also fell into the “hype” and blew the severe weather forecast as well, but we should have known, as Kansas City has not been in the right spot all year, as discussed in our winter forecast and in Tuesday night’s special “Before The Storm”. We have used the LRC to help in weather forecasts even up until the minutes before the weather event. But, this one we got caught up in some over analysis of the data. Our forecast for this week from 12 weeks ago picked out this pattern well. You be the judge.
Bizarro Jerry posted our weather forecasts in January all the way into April. Here is the one issued for this week made in mid-January:
Weather2020 forecast made for the Week of April 5: One Storm System and Cold Outbreak 52°F / 31°F
The week will start with a storm system ejecting out of the southwest USA. This storm will bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms across Kansas and Missouri, Dodge City, to Topeka to KC to Springfield and St. Louis. There is a slight chance of severe weather south along I-44. Nebraska and Iowa, North Platte to Omaha to Des Moines will see a good chance of rain, possibly changing to snow before ending. In the wake of the storm there will be 2 blasts of cold to all areas. A freeze will be possible in all locations as this is the part of the pattern that was responsible for the cold periods during the past winter.
This forecast is word for word with what Weather2020 forecast for our region. Remember now, this is a region wide forecast, but we can get specific for each location as well. Why don’t you judge it and let us know how we did. Now, the week isn’t over yet. When we made the forecast we considered that there may be some very cold air heading south. When this part of the pattern returns, and it will in between May 17th and May 28th, it will likely be the worst severe weather stretch of the season.
So, yes, this part of the pattern, when it returns in May, will likely produce similar set-ups to what we are having now, but with the pattern deeper into May we believe it will be our most active week, and perhaps wettest two weeks of the season. Our long range forecasts have come in accurate at a 75% clip. This still means that 25 out of 100 forecasts have not been so great. I know we have raised the bar on accuracy, but we are not perfect, and yesterday is a good example of that.
Have a great day! Let’s see what happens with this cold front in the next few hours.
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After a couple of busy hours, all is quiet tonight across our area. That’s not to say we are 100% done with the chances of storms, but the atmosphere has been worked over a little bit. At this time, we have no active warnings or watches in effect for our area.
As we know from Tuesday night, things can change rapidly. Given the setup we had in place today, the dynamics were there for some explosive thunderstorms. Thankfully, what did go up was not all that bad and was fairly isolated.
Let me show you some of the storm reports we’ve had between 1pm and 7:30pm
And there was some significant hail in one of the storms that passed through the Northwest part of the Metro just after 5pm:
Here is the radar across the area right now. Again, it doesn’t look like much.
Like we saw last night, however, we’ll need to keep tabs on this as the low-level jet gets going. That could be enough to spark some new development toward the 10pm hour. I hesitate to post any model guidance on that because–to be honest–the guidance has not handled it all that well. However, it does indicate some weak t-storms near the Metro around midnight.
As frustrating as it is to you, the “wait and see” game is no friend of ours either.
While there could be some lingering showers Thursday morning, it looks like the rest of the week will be smooth sailing.
If you missed our Spring weather special Tuesday night, you can watch it in full on our website. Just click this link.
Gary and I will be here monitoring things tonight and will provide updates should the conditions take a turn.
Let’s go Royals!
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