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Sunday PM Update

Good afternoon,

We had a bot of excitement for an hour this afternoon as a few brief tornado warnings were issued southwest of Sedalia.  There were some brief circulations on the leading edge of the thunderstorms as they moved northeast.  These were not classic super cells.  This system is now out of the viewing area.  There is one last disturbance in the series of systems we have been tracking for the last 24 hours.  This will bring one more round of rain and a few thunderstorms to all locations between now and midnight.  New rainfall of .50″-2″ is possible.  This will cause some flooding, especially flood prone intersections.

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The next system is heading our way.

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The rain ends after midnight.  Memorial day is looking dry, warm and humid with perhaps some thunderstorms at night.  JD will have an update later and be on 41 Action News at 5 and 10.

 

Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

Jeff

A Day of Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

The much talked about rain started Saturday evening and will end this evening.  We will have periods of rain, heavy at times today.  The flooding is not going to be horrible, but there are intersections that will flood.  If you see high water, “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN”.  6″ of water can disable a car.

So, far as of Sunday morning we have received around 1.5″ of rain in the city, .50-1″ to the east and 1-3″ to the southwest.  This has been enough to flood intersections, but it has come down slow enough to prevent major issues.  This will be the case for the duration of the storm.

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We are still in a Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning.  The blue colors are river/creek flood warnings.  There is a larger flood warning from Emporia south where 3-4″ of rain occurred last night.

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What’s next?  There  is a spinning area of rain east of Oklahoma City.  This is headed north and will increase our rain later this morning and afternoon.  After the wave passes there will be lingering showers, some heavy into the evening.  Then the whole thing sifts east.

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The good news is that Memorial Day is looking mostly dry, warm, and humid.  This is by far the best day of the weekend to do outdoor activities.

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Have a great rest of your weekend and stay safe.  We will have updates through the day at www.kshb.com/weather.  JD will be in this afternoon.

Jeff

Heavy rain likely tonight into Sunday

Here…we…go.
Been talking about the potential for heavy rain tonight into Sunday and it’s showing up on radar already. Many have asked what this means for the Royals game tonight.
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Based on just radar trends, I would put that rain in here around 8:30p or so. That’s not to say another small shower may not develop and move over the stadium before then. But the heavy, soaking rain that may threaten the game won’t arrive until about 8:30pm. I expect a few rounds of heavy rain to roll over the area as the overnight periods goes on.
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So looking at overall Royals forecast for tonight and tomorrow, it’s not looking all that pretty.
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When it comes to the rainfall amounts, I’ve seen quite the spread from the models. At one point, powercast was saying 3.75″ for KCI. I think that’s a little too generous. Based off radar estimates from the line out there already, I’d feel safe in saying one to about two and half inches is possible.
This is what the latest powercast is suggesting, and I don’t think it’s too bad.
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That said, the ground is pretty full of water right now, so another couple inches may lead to flooding concerns in some neighborhoods. Please be aware.

Looking more ahead at Memorial Day Monday, I am seeing indications that most of the day may wind up dry. Similar to how today has been. The exception would be that there may be a little more sunshine in the afternoon. That would warm us up but also lead to a chance for afternoon storms to bubble up. I’m not thinking we’ll see severe weather, but some rumbles here and there are possible.
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Here’s to hoping the Royals can get the game in tonight and find a way to sneak in the game Sunday. Remember that lightning is still a factor in this band moving through tonight, so I would be cautious of the lightning danger for those outdoors…be it Royals, camping, grilling, or whatever.

If you find yourself with some good rain photos or videos, be sure to send them our way and we may use them on the air.
-JD

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are at the start of the Memorial Day weekend and climatologically this is the wettest time of the year.  So, when we are in a wet pattern during the wettest time of year, well then rain is likely.  Lets go through this holiday weekend.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH: Look how much real estate is under a Flash Flood watch.  There has been 5-10″ of rain this month in the watch area and a new 3-7″ is likely.

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530 PM TODAY: We will have just a few sprinkles and rain showers between now and 6 PM.  The main heavy rain will be just west at 530 PM.  So, if you have outdoor plans today, it will not be that bad, just cloudy with highs in the 60s and a few showers.

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MIDNIGHT: The rain storm will be well underway.  Once it arrives, it will likely not stop until 8-10 PM Sunday.  The rain will likely begin 8-10 PM tonight, so if you are headed to the “K” the game will start, but will it finish? They will be cutting it close.

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NOON SUNDAY: The waves of rain will continue.  The chance of severe weather is near zero, but flash flooding is a form of severe weather and this will be a big threat.

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RAINFALL FORECAST:  Many areas may see 2-4″ of rain.  This on top of saturated ground and bloated rivers sets the stage for a flood concern.

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REGIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST:  Look at how much rain will fall over the southern Plains.  This could become quite a mess.  We will follow it closely.

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Have a safe and enjoyable and relaxing holiday weekend.  Do not drink and drive and TADD (turn around don’t drown).  If you see a flooded intersection, do not drive through it.  6″ of flowing water can disable a car.

Jeff

Flood watch in place as rain is likely Sunday

Here we go, the holiday weekend has started for many. And right on cue, Mother Nature is keep us all on our toes. A flash flood watch is in place for Saturday night through Monday night.
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There have been some showers around the area today, but as expected: the band broke up before it could hit KC. That said, some lingering sprinkles and very light showers may pass over Southern KC between 5p and 7p. These will not cause any flooding issues.
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What kind of impacts will the weekend weather have on the Royals game? I think the games tonight and Saturday are played without problem. But Sunday concerns me a little bit.
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Guidance continues to support the idea that heavy rain will work into the area Saturday night through Sunday. This is how our Powercast model depicts things Saturday night.
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And then on Sunday it appears we see a couple rounds off & on through the day.
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Based on the Powercast model, this is how much rain we could see by Monday afternoon.
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The consensus has been that the heaviest rain will fall in Southeastern Kansas over the holiday weekend with the heaviest happening on Sunday. Now you see why we have the flood watch going.

To give you a better idea of when to expect rain, here is my latest thinking.
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If you are making lake plans, here is just a snapshot of what to expect Saturday night…
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And then on Sunday…
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As we get into Monday, there may be enough energy returning to the area that we could pop a few afternoon thunderstorms. I would not be too concerned with severe weather, but some rumbles are certainly possible. I wouldn’t recommend putting the kibosh on your outdoor plans Monday just yet.
Looking ahead, small chances for rain and spotty thunderstorms just about every day next week. Guidance is a little mixed, with the Euro saying we wind up dry Wednesday & Thursday. However, with a weak trough in the atmosphere draped across us, and it being late May, I have to allow for a heat-of-the-day thunderstorm. Not a washout at all, just a chance for Spring thunderstorms.

We’ll be keeping tabs on things this weekend and updating you as we go. Make the most of it and have a safe, fun weekend.
-JD

Overall holiday weekend forecast not that bad

Many are asking: when is it going to rain? When can I make plans outside?
In some regard, it’s like trying to nail jello to the wall. But that said, the picture is getting a little less murky heading into the long holiday weekend. Let’s just jump right into it… based on what I have seen today, here is a rough idea of when you can make plans:
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Without question, it’s going to rain this weekend. Your backyard will likely see rain at some point between Friday and Monday. As it stands now, Sunday is the day with the highest odds.
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Okay, so how much rain? I believe that is still subject to change. But I would not be surprised if amounts were (on average) around 1-2″.
Around the wider area, some pretty impressive rain is possible over the next few days. This map is based on the NAM forecast model through 10am Monday.
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Again, the bulk of that rain is expected to fall on Sunday. And there is no doubt about it: we’ve seen our fair share of water this month. Just look at the major reporting sites across our viewing area.
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The new drought monitor came out this morning and it shows just how much better things have gotten across the region.
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Now the attention may turn to those dealing with minor flooding over the next few days, which is never fun.

I will admit the overall forecast is a bit of a headache with this being the holiday weekend and the atmosphere not in a playful mood. The NAM model continues to be the most aggressive with putting rain in the area. It says we have rain Friday at Noon, Saturday off & on, and then brings the heavy rain through Sunday.
That said, the Euro, the GFS, and the RPM are not as aggressive at all. They do agree that Sunday is the wet day, but there is a chance that most of Saturday is actually dry in KC! I am not ready to buy into that just yet, given how this year as been. Truly it’s an “any excuse will do” to produce rain this Spring.

My advice is: keep checking on the forecast. If you watched at 7am, watch again at 5pm. If you watched at 5pm, watch at 10pm. This is going to be an evolving setup and we’re only as good as our last forecast. So keep yourself updated.

Kalee is in Friday morning with a fresh take on the info. I’ll be back in for Gary Friday afternoon and will have new forecasts starting at 4pm. Remember you stay with our team on social media too and we’ll be sure to keep you informed!
-JD

The Wet Pattern Continues To Look Wetter

Good morning bloggers,

We set a record for the lowest high temperature ever in KC’s recorded history yesterday. It was only 54° and that happened around midnight. The old record was set way back in 1892, so a record was broken that stood for 123 years.

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The pattern is becoming even more favorable for excessive rain in our region. Will it target Kansas City and our surrounding communities? Remember, this is the same pattern that we have been experiencing since last fall.  We made some adjustments to the forecast lowering high temperatures into the 60s the next three days with the chance of rain returning Friday. It has rained 17 out of the first 20 days of this month.

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Some of the models have had quite a bit of rain this weekend. This is the climatologically wettest weekend of the year, and it may be about to live up to it’s reputation.  This rainfall forecast is from the 18z GFS model from Wednesday.

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And, thank you Joe for your great comment at 10:12 PM Wednesday night:

Gary, rest assured, there are those of us that HAVE paid attention and understand how you define a cold phase. I think some hear you say “cold Phase” and automatically think that means winter like temps without taking into consideration the seasonal differences that you have addressed a hundred times. To me, it is common sense, a cold phase in May or June is going to be significantly different that a cold phase in December or January for a whole host of reasons. I for one, continue to be amazed at how accurate you and the team have been with the LRC this year as well as the past few. It seems to me that the accuracy rate continues to improve. As far as the ones that have yet to understand it, be patient as some will and for those that refuse to see it well…what’s that old adage? you can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink?”

Have a great Thursday.  I am taking a couple of days off, as I just worked 17 in a row. I will check back in as the weekend approaches. I am going to my first Royals game of the year on Friday night. Will it rain? I think there is a pretty good chance.

Gary

Summer Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

We presented the summer forecast last night at 10 PM.  Here is the link:  Summer Forecast

Rain and a few thunderstorms are approaching, however, I didn’t see many lightning strikes yet. There is no chance of severe weather with this system. The rain will taper off early in the day, and then some drizzle may remain for a while.  Have a great day!  We will look ahead to the holiday weekend forecast in our next blog entry later in the day.

Gary

Here Comes the Rain Again

Good Tuesday night bloggers,

It has been dry for almost 48 hours and now the rain is going to return.  There is no chance of severe weather in our area as temperatures are way to cool. There is severe weather occurring in Oklahoma and Texas.

Here are the temperatures from Tuesday afternoon.  We are in the 50s, but it is in the 30s in northwest Kansas!

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230 AM WEDNESDAY: We will be in the middle of the heavier rain by this time.  There will be some thunderstorms as well.  Temperatures will be in the 40s.

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7 AM WEDNESDAY: It is going to be a wet Wednesday morning rush hour with temperatures in the 40s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: Here is the latest forecast for rain with this next event.  This map shows the heaviest from Lawrence, KS to Richmond, MO with amounts just over an inch.  This is not set in stone, but we believe that there will be a heavier rain band.  It is hard to tell exactly where this will set up.  It could be 30-50 miles south or north of where this map shows, or this map is right.  If your location is not in the heaviest, then your amounts will be .25″ to .75″.  Is this enough to cause flooding? In most cases no, but the ground is saturated, so some locations will see minor flooding.  This means some creeks will rise and watch for high water in the normally flooded intersections.  Some sections of the Missouri river are in a state of flood, so any rain is not welcomed.  Also, this will keep the ground saturated, so if any heavier thunderstorms occur this weekend with rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour then some spots could have a serious situation.  Also, water that is sitting on farmland will not want to see the rain.

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7 PM WEDNESDAY: The rain will end by noon, so that by 7 PM it will be cloudy, cool and damp with some mist and temperatures near 50°.  If you are headed to the “K” or Sporting KC tomorrow night you will not need an umbrella, but you will need a jacket.  I need to listen to this advice as I am going to the Royals game.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Summer Forecast Tonight: The Wet Pattern Continues

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

The Summer Forecast Is On 41 Action News at 10 PM tonight. If you are out of town you can watch it on KSHB.com!

After a very wet weekend we had a chance to dry out for two days. But, here comes the next storm system with some snow likely over western Nebraska. As discussed on Weather2020.com, we are now moving into the cold phase of this year’s cycling weather pattern.  And, right on schedule a cool May air mass is expanding out over the plains. Here is one of our Powercasts showing the snow over Wyoming and western Nebraska. This is a fast moving wave, a disturbance aloft, that will likely spread rain with a few thunderstorms possible into our area Wednesday morning.  It will be a fast mover:

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It will start out sunny and nice, and then clouds will be increasing later in the day.  High temperatures will rise into the 60 to 65 degree range on Tuesday.

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The pattern is going into a major amplification and this will create some forecasting problems for the meteorologists in the next week.  It is a tough Memorial Day Weekend Forecast.  We will be timing out rain chances, potentially getting too much rain in spots with more flooding possible. Look at the May rainfall totals so far.

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Here is the upper level flow forecast by 7 PM Thursday. You can see the huge ridge off the west coast into eastern Alaska and western Canada. Underneath this big ridge is our weekend storm system.

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We will discuss the weekend set-up in the next few blogs.  Have a Terrific Tuesday!

Gary