Quantcast

Dinky Snow Chances

Good Monday,

New England is bracing for a mammoth snowstorm with NYC in a Blizzard Warning where they could see around 15″ of snow and 60 mph winds!  This is the kind of storm they get in New England.  What kind of snowstorms do we get here?  Well, we have two chances of snow, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Each one may bring a dusting to 1/3″.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at our little snow chances.  The rest of today will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs in the upper 30s.  There have been some flurries, mist and tiny graupel particles around.  There is a band of drizzle moving through, ending early this afternoon.  Temperatures are below freezing, but most surfaces will be damp to wet.  Decks, bridges and overpasses may have some slick spots, but with this happening during the day in March it lessens the ice impact.

1

Have a great day.

Jeff

 

Cold Start to the Week

Good Sunday,

Well, we had 0.4″ of snow officially on Saturday.  So, we did have our first measurable snow since January 5th.  There is still a little snow left on the grass, but it will melt by afternoon as highs reach the low 40s.  We then turn our attention to the first of three storm systems.  The first system moves through tonight with a few rain showers followed by wind and cold.  We are not expecting any icing as surfaces will dry before they have a chance to freeze.  We will keep an eye on it.

1

Click on the video below for an in-depth look at the forecast.

Have a great week.

Jeff

The Snow is Here, Mostly

Good Saturday bloggers,

The last measurable snow before today was January 5th.  The streak has officially ended at KCI, but there are many locations still waiting.  Northern Missouri will not see measurable snow and as I write this, Overland Park and Olathe are still waiting for their first flakes.  It looks like snow will fall on those cities before this day ends.  We are once again having a small and totally dysfunctional storm.  That is the way it has been this season.  So, lets go through this odd storm system.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR: We are watching an area of snow east of Concordia, KS.  It looks like this area will slide southeast into the KC area and bring legitimate snow to the south side.

3

 

POWERCAST 1 PM: You can see the southwest side of KC to Ottawa are seeing the snow as that band in northeast Kansas slides southeast,

4

 

SNOWFALL FORECAST: We have a 2-3″ area around Liberty.  That may be a bit overdone, but there was some heavier snow there earlier in the morning.  So, this is total for the whole event.  Most locations will see a dusting to 1-2″.  Notice, how north of St. Joseph and south of the KC area will see little to no accumulation.  Locations south of KC may see snow, but with little accumulation as temperatures there rise above 32.  This is a small, odd system that happens to be centered around I-70 in our area.  Also, this accumulation forecast is for mostly grassy surfaces.  Paved surfaces will be mostly wet with some 1/8″ to 1/2″ slush spots especially in the heavier snow areas.  Bridges and overpasses will be the most slick as temperatures remain below freezing all day.  The March sun angle will help the roads through the day.

2

 

FORECAST: The main snow for the whole city will occur 11 AM to 3 PM.  After 3 PM the snow will race away to the south and weaken.  Now, the March sun angle will help the roads during the daylight hours, but once the sun sets, we will have to watch for re-freezing and more widespread black ice.  There is also a chance for some freezing fog by morning.

6

 

Remember to SPRING FORWARD TONIGHT, 1 hour.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

First Snow In 64 Days Is Coming

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The March Weather Madness continues. The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning during winter. What? Are you kidding? It has been so mild with so any trees budding and blooming before March 10th they felt it was necessary to issue this Freeze Warning:

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 7.15.07 AM

The dark purple colored area from Kansas City to Kentucky shows the Freeze Warning. New York City is in a Winter Weather Advisory and they are forecasting 2-4 inches of snow. Can you imagine a forecast of 2-4″? Kansas City is in a snow drought right now for three winters.

Kansas City Snowfall:

  • This Winter: 4.5″ (Second lowest total in recorded history as of today)
  • 2015-2016 Winter: 5.9″
  • 2014-2015 Winter: 14.2″

This is a total of 24.6″ over the past three winters. Will we be adding to this years total? There is still some debate on this as we are now less than 24 hours from some snow spreading into parts of Kansas and Missouri from the north. The storm causing this is not organized at all. There is a second system to track as well, but the trend on Mondays storm is much farther northeast which would draw in much warmer air to mess this chance up in our area.

Let’s look at these next two storm systems. But, first, how dry has it been getting? Take a look at these numbers:

  • It has been 64 days since Kansas City’s last measurable snow: 2.2″ fell at KCI Airport January 4-5, 2017, 64 days ago
  • The dry spell is now at 53 days! In the last 53 days, since the “non ice” ice storm Kansas City has only had 0.45″ which includes the .35″ from Mondays tornado and severe weather outbreak

Storm #1: Saturday

I guess we can call this a storm system. Here is the set up from this mornings NAM model just out:

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 8.24.52 AM

This map above shows the latest NAM model. There are 2 to 3 inch amounts near Kansas City. KCI Airport has not had 3″ or more in a storm the past three full winters including this year. Every snowfall has been under three inches since a 7″ snow on February 4-5 four winters ago in the 2013-2014 winter. Three full winters without a three inch snow. I am expecting this streak to continue after tomorrows snow. There may be a thin band that gets 3″ or more? But, most areas will likely be in the dusting to 2″ range.

Kansas City Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to 3″ with most spots receiving 2″ or less!

Storm #2: Monday

1

The trend on this model is strongly in the warmer direction in our area. Just yesterday morning the models had this system tracking much farther to the southwest. The trend is in this farther northeast direction. This is the storm that will become another majorly impacting storm beginning around Iowa and then really blowing up in the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. It is just not fair, is it? Look at this forecast map from the overnight 06z NAM model. The other models have strongly trended in this direction as well:

At midnight Sunday night warmer are will be drawn into the warm sector. It will likely warm up into the 40s near Kansas City by midnight, which will be Sunday and Mondays high temperatures before that strong cold front moves through. Iowa would be the target and Kansas City would likely only have a band of rain, showers, or possibly even a thunderstorm.

Let’s see how all of the other models roll in this morning. It certainly appears it will snow Saturday. Yes, there is still some doubt.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We have a lively discussion going on right now on Weather2020.com if you want to join in.

Gary

Winter is Not Over Yet!

Good Wednesday,

The week started with tornadoes and all forms of severe weather and it will end with a blast of cold and chance of snow.  This is called March Weather Madness!  So, lets go through the next few days.

TODAY: The ground is still dry as we have another day of sun, wind, low humidity and temperatures around 70°.  So, we remain in a high fire danger.  This week more people have died from wildfires than tornadoes, ponder that for a few minutes. It is a miracle there were no deaths Monday night as we had a nighttime, fast moving severe weather event with 80-90 mph winds and tornadoes.

7

THURSDAY: This will be another mostly nice day as highs reach to around 70°.  There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening that could produce large hail.  It looks like they will affect locations 50-100 miles south of I-70 or even further south, near I-44.  A strong cold front is approaching from the north.

8

FRIDAY: This will be a dry day as colder air comes pouring in from the north.  Our highs will be in the 40s as the sun will still be mostly out.  Arctic air is lurking in the northern Plains.

9-1

SATURDAY: Ok, here we go.  A storm system will be tracking quickly from northwest to southeast as the cold air is in place.  Our computer data is beginning to come together on solutions where we will see snow in the region.  The amounts are a question.  There will also be a rain-sleet-snow line and where that sets up will be critical in determining who sees the most snow.  The storm strength is also a factor.

The map below is for the morning Saturday.  You can see we could have snow in St. Joseph, sleet in KC and rain in Olathe.   This is far from set in stone.

9-2

 

SATURDAY MIDDAY-AFTERNOON:  On this solution you can see that the rain-sleet-snow lines shift south.  This is going to be an interesting day.  You may wonder if the snow will stick to the roads.  If the snow comes down hard enough and it occurs early in the morning, it most certainly will as air temperatures in the snow and sleet areas will be mainly in the 20s.  If the temperatures drop to the low 20s, it could stick to roads anytime of the day despite the March sun angle and previous warmer days.  How much snow could fall?  This storm has potential to bring more than 2-3″ in some small bands.  If the sky clears Saturday night, then lows Sunday morning in locations that saw snow could drop to 5°-15°!

9

 

Have a great rest of your week and bring the boots, coats and gloves back out.

Jeff

Wow! What a Night

Good Tuesday,

I hope everyone stayed safe last night as the line of high winds, hail   and tornadoes roared through.  I lived here my whole life and cannot remember a severe weather event that did this much major structural damage across the entire metropolitan KC area.  It is nothing short of a miracle that there were no serious injuries or deaths.

MARCH 6TH TOTAL SEVERE REPORTS

Now, what is next?  Today we have a high fire danger as despite the rain last night it was only .10″ to .50″, so the ground is quite dry and we are for more wind and low humidity.  Wednesday and Thursday will be nice days, but winter is trying to return after a long absence.  Yes, there is a chance of snow Saturday and we will be tracking this through the week.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this weather March Madness.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Severe Weather Is Possible Later, But It May Go By Dry Again

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

  • Wind Advisory Today: Winds will gust to nearly 50 mph this afternoon
  • There is a risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. The window for thunderstorms will open and close fast and many areas near KC may be left high and dry again.

day1otlk_1300
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms developing near Kansas City today. The better chance is just outside the 41 Action News KC viewing area over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. This may very well go past Kansas City leaving it high and extremely dry again.

5

This surface forecast shows the strong surface low up near the USA/Canada border with a cold front trailing into northwest Kansas and a dry line over eastern Kansas. These surface boundaries will likely be the focusing mechanisms for thunderstorm development. There is a pretty good chance that a more solid line of thunderstorms won’t form until around 8 to 10 PM tonight as you can see on this sequence of forecasts from the HRRR model:

1

2

3

This third map shows what finally happens by 9 or 10 PM tonight. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop and then rapidly take off to the east. As you can see below, this model left Kansas City dry again.

4

We will monitor this closely. Have a great day!

Gary

Spring Forecast

Good evening or early Thursday morning bloggers,

The weather is again calming down for a few days.  Kansas City missed the rain and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night. It did hit areas south and southeast of the city, however, but overall it has been getting drier and drier. The pattern is cycling as described by my theory the LRC.  So, the same pattern that just brought us our dry and warm winter will likely bring us a drier than average spring and a warmer than average one as well. By the summer we are forecasting many 100 degree days whereas it has not been officially 100 at KCI Airport in nearly 4 years.

Looking back at our winter forecast and the pattern we have been experiencing:

2

Our winter forecast was almost spot on, but we should have forecast even less snowfall. Overall I would give this winter forecast a solid A.

1

 

This map above is the graphic we made to show the dominant storm track for the winter.  It has pretty much been spot on.  This second map below shows the temperature forecast for the winter:

3

 

We are forecasting this pattern to continue producing the above average temperatures and the drier than average rainfall this spring.  When it comes to severe weather we believe there will be some big severe weather set ups, but there is also a chance the severe thunderstorms taper off early as summer approaches.  The part of the pattern that just cycled through will be back in around 60 days:

4

 

So, what is going to happen this spring?

6

I sure hope I am wrong. I would put our chance of being right at 85% with the chance of something unusual happening and we end up wetter than we are forecasting to be at 15%.

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Severe weather erupts over southeast Kansas City

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

What is today’s date? We are going into March like a lion, but it will be tamed and be more like a lamb very soon.  Here is the line of thunderstorms that formed over the south and southeast part of the KC metro area. Some spots had hail and others heavy rain, while most areas stayed dry once again:

1

These thunderstorms were forming on a cold front that has now moved through and the thunderstorms are moving away. Here is that front as of 8:20 PM:

2

It has been very dry and as we move through spring we will definitely see some rain here and there, but overall the dry weather pattern is likely going to continue. We debuted our new 41 Action News Storm Tracker tonight:

st

This is a storm tracking machine with the best equipment to be a severe weather mobile unit that will be able to provide us with great data from the field. We debuted it tonight with our 360 degree camera. It was incredible. Hopefully we won’t have any tornadoes in our area but if the weather threatens we will be all over it with our chase teams and this great new tool.

Have a great middle of the week.

Gary

Tuesday Severe Weather?

Good Monday,

We are really drying out as we are about 2″ below average rainfall since January 17th.  Well, we have a small disturbance moving through tonight, a strong cold front and fast-moving system moving by Tuesday-Wednesday.  A few showers will be possible tonight, but amounts will be under .05″ at most as temperatures hold in the 50s.  Then, we soar to the 70s Tuesday ahead of this front. It looks like the better dew points will get shunted to the east by evening, so some showers and thunderstorms are possible along and behind this front, but the best chance will be well east.  This is the same for the Tuesday evening severe weather threat.  Then, we may see some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but the main precipitation will stay well north.  So, our rainfall amounts will be paltry.

1

Click on the video below for an in depth look at this wild, but dry weather.

Have a great week.

Jeff