Quantcast

Severe weather threat this evening

Update – 3:25pm
=======
As expected, we have a watch in place until 10pm tonight.
9-1

Primary threat will be high wind near 70mph. That’s due simply to the extreme heat we have today. Other threat include hail near quarter size and very heavy rain. I cannot rule out a tornado warning or two before sunset. This would be somewhere along the surface boundary, which is very close to I-70. Again, find a way to get warning alerts when they are issued… our Storm Shield app is a great place to start.

=====
Previous Entry
=====

Not good news for Royals fans… it’s looking more and more like we’ll have thunderstorms in the KC area this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center’s afternoon update still includes us in a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for this afternoon/evening.
2

Based on radar trends alone, I would suspect we’ll have rain & t-storms in the area by about 7pm tonight.
1

Looking at the visible satellite, clouds to the North of I-70 (along with leftover rain showers) have led to a stable atmosphere. However, in the sunshine South of I-70, the atmosphere is becoming very unsettled.
5

Just checking the temps alone, you can tell there is a stark boundary in place over the area.
6

Add in the high dew points, and we’ve got several key ingredients for thunderstorms this evening. Our Powercast model has done a great job on picking up on the activity going on now. Other models like the NAM have completely missed out on what’s currently happening. So, that said, I think the Powercast (RPM) is on the right track when it suggests this by 7pm tonight:
3

As of this blog writing (3:05pm), there are no watches in place. However, I suspect we’ll be placed in a watch soon that will likely include most of Eastern Kansas and a good amount of Western Missouri. Thus, it will likely include the KC Metro area. I would suspect this watch would go until 10pm.
Once one is issued, I will update this blog.

I encourage you or anyone you know that will be outside tonight, to have a way to get warning information when it’s issued. Also remember that you can watch our newscasts live online at KSHB.com.

Quickly looking ahead: I think we keep the heat going for Sunday through Tuesday. However, I am not seeing big chances for rain (outside of Sunday morning into early afternoon). There should be a cold front that drops into the area on Wednesday, giving us a chance for morning showers and “cooling” us off into the 80s for Wed/Thurs.

Be safe tonight and remember to stay weather aware.
-JD

And the Beat Goes On…Heat, Humidity, Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

The weather issues we face today are the same issues that we have been dealing with all summer.  We have a Heat Advisory in effect and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

HEAT ADVISORY & OZONE ALERT: The heat advisory is in effect for mostly I-70 south as rain cooled air and clouds will keep it cooler north.

2

There is an Ozone Alert for elevated pollution levels.  However, an outflow boundary came through at about 5 AM (the thin green line).  This emanated from the thunderstorms across northern Missouri and was rain cooled air.  This may help the pollution issue.

1

 

So, with the outflow boundary near by, and a new disturbance coming in from northwest Kansas we will have to watch for thunderstorms to form this evening to our northwest.  Some of the thunderstorm may produce a 60 mph wind gust or higher and quarter sized hail.  The main threat will be flash flooding.

3

4

 

5 PM TODAY:  Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with high humidity.  Thunderstorms may get going in northeast Kansas and we will have to watch these for the evening.  This could impact the Royals game.  In rain areas, temperatures will drop to the 70s.  So, keep an eye to the sky if you are out and about this evening.

5

 

HEAT INDEX FORECAST:  Values will reach 105°-110° before any cooling thunderstorms form.  Drink plenty of water.  I was at the Royals game last night and we were all dripping just standing around.

6

 

EVENING FORECAST:  If you are headed to tonight game, take an umbrella and be prepared for a delay.  The chance of rain is 30-40%.

7

 

Have a great weekend and meteorologist JD Rudd will have an update later today.  You can see updates all day online at www.kshb.com/weather.

Jeff

The heat gets set to return

By late July standards, these last couple of days have been rare. We have struggled this afternoon just to get above 80°! The 4:30pm temperatures around the area are not bad at all.
5

Looking over the last ten days, we have seen our share of ups and downs in the temperature department. It has not been warmer than 90° since Friday .
9
Hopefully you have made the most of the nice weather, especially these last two days . Temperatures will now climb as we move toward the weekend.
2

With the temps moving up, that also means our dew points will climb. This, in turn, means we’re going to sweat a little bit more.
4

When it comes to rain chances, this continues to be the summer of “any excuse will do”. While nothing appears to jump out at us at this time, there are small chances for rain. Likely we’ll go back to the pattern of rain in the morning and then hot/humid in the afternoon. So not a washout, but chances of rain will be there.
9-2

As you can see, nothing looks definite… just chances for rain here and there. Again, odds on favor indicate those would be primarily morning showers. And it’s not like we’re hurting for rain–something I don’t recall I’ve ever said in July before! As of today, we’re riding above the monthly average.
3

To those making plans tonight, hopefully you do something outdoors. Take this in! We’ll all be sweating our faces off again before too long.
-JD

55 days of rain since May 1, 2015

Good evening bloggers,

What a summer so far. Now, you wouldn’t know this if we watched any national news outlet today. 16 million people are apparently in the path of this “heat wave”. What? Yes, and then I saw that Dallas was 95° today, and it was 91° in North Carolina. Oh my! Wow, that is ridiculous. Not!  What is going on with all of this, it sort of drives me nuts and makes me not even pay attention.  And, we are in the media. Our weather team tries very hard to just tell you what is happening, and what is going to happen without sensationalizing.  95° in Dallas is nothing unusual at all! The high temperature in Kansas City today was 80°. And, the Eat Outside Index (EOI) was a nearly perfect 10 this evening. I am going to get my car washed in my dinner hour, and possibly get a bite to eat outside.  We hope you are enjoying this cooler and less humid stretch. It won’t last for long.

We are into our second full month of summer (astronomical summer) now, and almost two full months into, what is called, meteorological summer.  If you go back one more month we can see it has now rained 55 of the last 82 days.  Here are the monthly calendars:

1

2

3

So far this month we have now gone over 5″ of rain.  Here is the July total as of this morning:

4

We are in the part of the pattern that produced the wet storm that washed out the Royals/Orioles game in October. That was game 3 of the ALCS, and 281 days later we had the 1 to 4″ deluge over the south metro area yesterday morning. It is not a coincidence. This pattern continues to produce rain, and it likely will not be ending any time soon. The jet stream is lifting farther north and weakening. This will limit severe weather risks for a while, and believe me our weather team needs this break. We have had more tornadoes in the past two weeks than I can remember, perhaps since the May 4th to 8th week in 2003. It’s summer, but summer has yet to settle in . I thought there would be two chances for a heat wave, one which passed by in June, and one coming up next month. So far we have avoided a three day stretch of 95 degrees.

We have a disturbance approaching our area and there is a warm front to our south. This will likely lead to another complex of thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday. We will try to pick out the most likely spot to have this system. It appears that it will be south of I-70 once again.

Have a great night.

Gary

Another Heavy Rain Event

Good Monday bloggers,

Last night was crazy between 4 AM and 6 AM as very heavy thunderstorms pounded areas south of the river with rainfall rates of 2-3″ per hour.  This is just the latest in what seems like an endless stretch of torrential rain events.  Below I will show the 5 day totals estimated by radar.

RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT:  Note, most of the rain fell in 1 hour!

1

RAINFALL TOTAL LAST NIGHT, RADAR ESTIMATED:  Just north of Olathe there is an orange shade, 5-8″!  Likely closer to 5″.

3

 

RAINFALL TOTALS LAST 5 DAYS, RADAR ESTIMATED:  Wow!   Some areas south of Maryville have seen over 10″!  This is likely causing major crop losses.  Northern Missouri has taken a beating this last week.

2

 

RAINFALL TOTALS LAST 5 DAYS, RADAR ESTIMATED, CLOSER IN:

4

Now, what is next?  The rain is pretty much over for today.  You cannot rule out a few new thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and western Missouri as a weak cold front pushes in.  The main show later today will be tied to the vort max that created the thunderstorms around here this morning along with a weak surface trough.  They will be  located over southeast Missouri today and that is where the Storm Prediction Center has moved the the slight risk.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY:

5

 

TUESDAY:  This will be a calm and nice day with highs in the low to mid 80s.  A surface high pressure will be located over northwest Iowa, delivering a more stable air mass into the area.

8

 

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:  You know we can’t go more than two days without thunderstorms.  A front will be stalled across southern Kansas and Oklahoma.  It will return north as a warm front as a new disturbance tracks east from the Rockies.  This will likely trigger more thunderstorms in central Kansas later Wednesday.  These will then have the chance to head into eastern Kansas and western Missouri later Wednesday night and early Thursday with more heavy rain, unbelievable.

7

 

Have a great week and “Turn Around Don’t Drown.”

Jeff

A break from the heat but not the rain

***Update 9pm***
========
Just took a peek at the newest forecast information and I have to admit: I like what I’m seeing. That means: I *agree* with what it’s spitting out now. Previously, I was not too sold on the Powercast model. I felt it was not handling the overnight rain well (mainly because it said there wasn’t any!).
Now, the newest version is in. It shows the overnight rain…
9-1
That rain should taper off by about midday. I still think many of us will get through the afternoon dry.

That said, I do still think we have to be on our toes for some afternoon pop-up showers and t-storms.
9-2

Severe threat is still very low for Monday. That’s not to say we won’t get some good claps of thunder in the morning. Don’t be surprised if you jump a few times!
Stay with our weather team and we’ll keep you posted. Enjoy the rest of your night!
-JD

=====
Previous Entry
=====

I almost feel like I could copy a number of previous blog posts word-for-word and it would fit perfectly for tomorrow’s weather!
Before we get to that, let’s check the rearview mirror and see where we have been.

Rain & thunderstorms developed overnight into this morning right where they were supposed to: Northern Missouri. Also as anticipated, some hefty rainfall amount were realized in that same area.
3
Of course, your backyard measuring device may vary just a bit.

At this point, I do not see anything new developing in our area this evening. But once we get into the overnight period, we could see a few showers try to develop. Based on the newest information, we may wind up dealing with rain Monday afternoon as well. But… I’m not 100% sold on that.

Latest powercast is persistent on bubbling up rain and a few thunderstorms after about 3pm Monday. Until then, it says we get nothing. I don’t buy that.
8

It lingers that action in our area through about 8p before it finally slides off to the South.
My gut tells me that the model has the right idea (kinda), but the execution may be a little off. We saw this with the guidance yesterday. What this means is, just because the above image shows rain in Northeast Kansas at 5:30pm, I don’t think that placement is set in stone. Even the timing is suspect to me.

My thought: we’ll get some rain overnight into the early morning hours of Monday. It will move from West to East across the area. Heavy rain pockets would not surprise me at all.
Then showers should linger in the mid-morning before another round could try to develop in the mid-afternoon. Those could wind up being very hit and miss. I’d be concerned about flooding in a few locales, simply due to the amount of water we’ve seen over the last couple of days.
I do think we shake the rain by the evening. So for the Royals game, I do NOT believe we’ll have a washout. More on that in a second.

A flash flood watch is in place for overnight tonight into Monday to account for those areas already dealing with the soggy sod.
4
I think that will be our biggest concern overall Monday: flooding. The overall severe weather threat is low… no organized hail/wind/tornado outbreaks are expected tonight or Monday.

Checking the ol’ water gauge for KCI, we’re getting close to hitting the average value for July.
5

If it’s any consolation prize, we should get a break from the heat and high humidity as we start the week. We’ll be about three to seven degrees below average.
6

I am sure many will be heading out to watch the Royals take on the Pirates tomorrow night. I have to allow for the chance of rain for the first part of the game, but at this time, I do not believe we’re in for a washout. That said, I will be at the game myself, so should we get a long rain delay, you can blame me in person!
2

Quickly looking ahead: I think we see more rain for Wednesday night into Thursday and then spotty chances for Friday-Sunday. The heat will return as well by the end of the week. If you drink the GFS Kool-Aid, it’s going to be blazing hot by next weekend. That model claims we’ll see highs around 101 both days. I’m not sold on that yet. The other medium-range model, the Euro, says we have morning showers Sat/Sun and highs only in the middle 90s to upper 80s. That seems to fit the overall pattern we’ve dealt with this season so I’d lean that way.

In the meantime, plan for some more rain on Monday. Seems we cannot go more than two or three days tops without some rain in the area!
-JD

More Thunderstorms…Shocked?

Good Sunday bloggers,

Once again we track thunderstorms.  This morning they extend from central Illinois to western Kansas, along and north of I-70.  These areas DO NOT need rain as some locations in northern Missouri this week, southeast of Maryville around Stanberry, saw 8-10″ of rain.  There are locations south of I-70, especially on the KS side that could use a drink of water for the lawn.  This current round may clip south of I-70 with some rain around noon as the main disturbance passes by.  New thunderstorms are likely later tonight.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR, 7 AM: You can see the large area of rain and thunderstorms.  It will be mostly north of I-70, but of you look southeast of Hays there are showers extending south.  This will be moving through our area around noon and may bring southern locations some rain.  The heaviest stays north in water logged areas.

1

FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY-MONDAY: The flash flood watch goes into Monday as a new round of heavy thunderstorms are likely later tonight.

2

 

SET UP TONIGHT-MONDAY:  A weak front will stall to our south as a new disturbance comes out of the Rockies.  This will likely generate new thunderstorms across western Kansas.  These have a better chance of tracking a bit further south, but many of the same areas will get hot again.  After this round it looks dry on Tuesday as a weak surface high pressure builds in.  Then, Wednesday-Thursday will see new thunderstorms as a warm front returns.  Remember, we can’t go more than 2 days without thunderstorms.

3

 

Remember, if you encounter any flowing water, “Turn Around Don’t Drown.”

Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

More rainfall on the way Sunday & Monday

Heat index readings - have you followed JD on Twitter yet? @jdrudd

Heat index at 5pm Saturday

I feel like we’ve done this before…
Rain moved through the area this morning and dumped some decent amounts in a couple areas.
7

During the midday program Friday, I mentioned that we’d likely see more clouds than sunshine for today, thus holding back temperatures a bit. That part panned out, but the rain was not progged to be there. However, as I have said before, this seems to be the year of “any excuse will do” in order for it to rain.

That said… prepare for more morning rain on Sunday and again on Monday. It’s all thanks to a slow-moving cold front that has setup shop over the area. It’s not out of the question that a stray thunderstorm tries to develop this evening, but it would be isolated and have to develop before sunset. After that, I think the odds are against something firing up. Things will change by Sunday morning, though…

Our Powercast models picks up on rain & t-storms for tomorrow morning.
6

Like we’ve seen before this year, if we get enough rain and cloud cover in the morning, that would limit our chances for redevelopment in the afternoon. Powercast says the afternoon is dry.
8

In a bit of supporting news, the Storm Prediction Center has *removed* our area from the “Slight Risk” they had in place previously.
3
I do still think it’s possible we get some stronger cells that dump some very heavy rain and produce some high wind gusts.

Looking ahead into Monday, I think we’re in the same boat: more morning rain and thunderstorms. Those could be a tad stronger. As of right now, the SPC has us in a “Slight Risk” for Monday but I have a feeling that will change.
9-2

Previously, there was an advertised cool down for Monday. I have not been sold on that and looking over the latest information, it appears we’ll actually have a weak warm front lifting over the area. Thus, the temperatures will likely remain in the 80s.
4
Shaking the dew points will be tough, so I think that means we’ll still deal with high heat index values (around 100°-110°).

Even this afternoon, our highs barely touched the 90 degree mark, but the heat index readings were stifling.
Heat Index readings as of 5pm Saturday
Heat Index readings as of 5pm Saturday
Given the fact that we have a chance for thunderstorms over the next couple of mornings, I would also suggest people be ready for potential power outages. It seems we’ve had a lot of locales take power hits when storms roll through. If the wind does happen to pick up steam, I would not be surprised at all to see more outages.

Our weather team will continue to monitor things and give you updates. Be sure to keep watching our newscasts for the very latest forecasts and updates.
My kingdom for an Omega block right now… (Weather geek humor)
-JD

Same Song and Dance, Heat and Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

We can’t go more than 2 days without thunderstorms.  Today we are having thunderstorms, mostly north of I-70.  They will be over by noon, leading to a steamy afternoon.  A Heat Advisory is in effect.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR (7 AM): There were heavy downpours across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.  Some locations will see a quick .25″ to .75″.

1

 

HEAT ADVISORY: It is a large heat advisory from Chicago to the Gulf coast.  After the rain ends, it then evaporates creating crazy humidity.  This humidity when combined with highs in the low 90s makes the heat index around 105°.

2

 

HEAT INDEX FORECAST SATURDAY PM:  We have some much water in the ground, that during the afternoon the grass, trees, plants and crops let off so much water (evapotranspiration) that the dew points climb close to 80°.  Also, the moisture in the soil evaporates.  This moisture combined with highs in the low 90s make heat index values around 105°.  Make sure you check on the elderly, kids and pets in the car.

4

 

SATURDAY 5 PM: A cold front will slice into the heat and humidity.  Now, this evening there will be a strong cap in place.  This will likely inhibit thunderstorms.  However, across northern Missouri and Iowa the cap may break, leading to a few severe thunderstorms where a slight risk of severe weather exists.  This front will come through tonight.  The cap will weaken and thunderstorms will be likely after midnight into Sunday morning.  These will be a bit more than what we had Saturday morning.

3

 

SUNDAY MORNING: The front will be sagging south as the morning has more showers and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours.  These thunderstorms will likely end during the afternoon leading to a dry Sunday afternoon and evening.  Highs will be in the 80s as the front is to the south.

5

 

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Then the front will stall as a disturbance comes out of the Rockies.  This will generate new thunderstorms in western Kansas Sunday evening.  This will likely become a big complex and head east into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Sunday night and Monday.  These  could bring some very heavy rain and flash flooding.  A few thunderstorms may have 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail.

6

 

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Still a threat for severe weather today

A classic shelf cloud got the attention of many this morning as it rolled over the Southern side of Metro Kansas City. Many people sent us photos and you can view those here at this link.
All-in-all, the worst of the storm brought some downed limbs and power outages. But it seems that almost any wind gust over 40mph will knock out power around the area this season.

Here at 1pm, we still have some activity on the radar. This little batch of t-storms has developed over the last half hour and continue to press to the East.
1

I do not see a severe weather threat with that activity at all. However, you may have heard about the SPC still having us in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather today.
9-2

Overall, I feel the better odds will be to the North of Kansas City. The forecast models have not been handling this stiff all too well, so we much be cautious on how much we lean on the models. Simple meteorology tells us that with ongoing rain & cloud cover, it’s going to be hard to prime the atmosphere. Temperatures right now are not all that warm.
2

And yes, the dew points are high enough to support some bigger storms….
3

But you need a few other dynamics in place first. It appears the better location for the energy is going to be along and North of the Iowa/Missouri line and into portions of Eastern Nebraska. Now, in the world of weather, you learn to never say never.
If the atmosphere *can* overcome a few hurdles, we do have the potential to bubble up some strong storms that could push the severe limits. The best time for this would likely be after about 5-6pm tonight. I’d say we need to keep eyes on far NE Kansas and NW Missouri for development.

Right now, however…
VisSat

The clouds are obviously in place and with the current rain on the radar, it may only help to stabilize the atmosphere.
That said, it does appear that the sky is trying to clear out. So this is a day where the longer we can keep the clouds, the lower our chances will be for severe weather.

Our team is going to be looking over every bit of information and will give you the latest updates on air and online as the afternoon and evening goes on.

Thanks to the clouds and the rain, we may be able to stay out of the 90s today. This would end a 4-day streak we have going.
7

The list time we had four or more days with temperatures at or above 90 degree was August of last year.
4

It appears we won’t get a break from the heat for long. We’re right back into the fire, especially by this weekend.

Once again, we will continue to monitor the atmosphere this afternoon for redevelopment of thunderstorms. For many of us, we’ll get through the rest of the day dry. That said, I would not be surprised if there is some form of a watch issued for part of our coverage area later this afternoon. My hunch would be along the Iowa/Missouri line and near the Kansas/Nebraska line.

-JD