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One Round of Rain Down, One More to Go

Good Monday bloggers,

Finally, we have seen widespread rain with amounts .10″ to .80″.  The heaviest amounts were from I-35 to the west.  Tonight will be dry and partly to mostly cloudy.  This storm is not done with us as a new disturbance will be tracking in from the southwest as it rotates around the main storm system.  This is timed for tomorrow night and early Wednesday.  Let’s go through the forecast.

A cold front is approaching, but it is weakening as it moves east.  It will stall near KC tonight and Tuesday as it waits for the next wave on Tuesday night.  After the wave moves by the front will move through.  This front is very weak and it will be a bit cooler Wednesday and Thursday before temps rise to near 80° this weekend.

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7 AM TUESDAY: It will be a dry morning rush hour with areas of clouds.  Temperatures will be in the low 50s.

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6 PM TUESDAY: The clouds will be thickening from south to north and there may be a few showers and thunderstorms.  Otherwise, most of Tuesday will be dry with highs around 70°.

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WEDNESDAY 4 AM: The next disturbance will be moving northeast across the area.  It will have a nice ball of rain and a few thunderstorms associated with it.  This is from the 18z NAM.  This model has the heaviest rain just west of KC, but all areas do receive some nice rain.  Now, that being said, the exact location of the heaviest rain is not set in stone.  The rain threat will end during the morning on Wednesday.

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ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST: Most locations will see a new .25″ to 1″.  There will be an area of an additional .50″ to 2″.  This area depends on where the main rain ball tracks.

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So, when this storm is said and done most locations will see around .50″ to 1.50″.  This is a nice rain and it is looking like it will be active next week.  We should be able to wipe out the 2016 rainfall deficit by the end of this month, if not sooner.

Have a great night and week ahead.

Jeff

Rain Creeping This Way

Good Sunday bloggers,

There has been a tremendous amount of rain in the western Plains.  In some locations 2-3 months worth of rainfall has fallen during the previous 48 hours.  This storm is heading this way, but like so many storm systems this year it is weakening as it approaches.There are 5″-8″ estimated amounts from Dodge City to Hays.  This is great news for the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop and for a big downgrade of the increasing moderate drought.  This rain is slowly moving east, but weakening with time.

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Here is the forecast through Monday for the chance of rain.

SUNDAY 845 PM: We may see a few showers, mostly on the Kansas side between 3 PM and 9 PM.  Otherwise, it will be a nice day with highs in the 70s along with periods of clouds.

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MONDAY 630 AM: The main rain approaches and it will likely be a wet morning rush hour.

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MONDAY 1230 PM: The rain is moving east, but it is showery and not as heavy as it was in western Kansas.  So, it looks like a wet Monday lunch.

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MONDAY 5 PM: The rain is moving off.  This is good news for the big Seven Days walk at the JCC.

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RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-WEDNESDAY: There is a good chance of rain tonight and Monday.  Then, the remnants of the main system arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday with a new chance of rain.  When you add it all up, we should see around 1.00″  of rain in KC with .50″-.75″ east of I-35 and 1.50″-2.50″ from Lawrence westward.  The amounts from the state line east will be higher if the rain later tonight and Monday maintains more strength for a longer time.  The chance of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday with the leftover main system is not set in stone.

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Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

Heavy Rain to the West

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have had some great weather, however we could use some rain as we are about 2.50″ of rain below average for the year.  This deficit is not due to a lack of wet storm systems in the region.  Last weekend we saw 1″-3″ of rain occur 100 miles to the south.  Now, this weekend we are seeing a very heavy rain event in a typically arid location where a moderate drought is/was growing.  There are even small severe drought pockets forming.  Our area is seeing the moderate drought grow as well.

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However, since Friday evening, the western Plains have been hammered by incredible rain amounts.  This drought is going to have a big downgrade.  There have been some pockets where 5″-8″ of rain has fallen!  This is likely good news for the winter wheat crop and good news for the drought.  Yes, the rain has come down hard and heavy, but much will soak in.  Isn’t better than .05″ over 2 days?

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This storm is heading this way, but the rain will likely weaken as it approaches the state line.  So, once again we will see the minimal from a large and wet storm. The main rain chance is Monday, but on Wednesday what is left of the main storm will move through and this could bring additional rainfall.  Let’s hope this all adds up to at least an inch of rain.

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If the drought continues to disappear out west, then it is likely a matter of time before it ends here.  It is a very rare sight to see us in a drought and western Kansas not.  So, let’s see what happens during the next month.

Have a great rest of your weekend.

Jeff

 

Great Spring Weather, But No Rain

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather this week is absolutely spectacular with abundant sunshine, light winds and highs in the 70s (lows in the 40s to 50s).  This is the good news,  but it is getting dry and we need some rain.  Well, there is a storm system that will be moving into the Rockies.  It is going to stall over the weekend as a block in the weather pattern forms.  This storm will greatly benefit much of the Plains, but as you know around here we have basically been getting nothing from everything.  Almost every storm system that has affected the middle part of the USA in 2016 has given our area the minimum.  This next storm is looking like no exception.

Our area is in an increasing area of abnormally dry conditions as we have had just enough moisture to keep soil conditions moist.  This is going to get worse the longer we stay dry through April.  There is a moderate drought over the western Plains where the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop is grown.  This next storm is going to greatly benefit those areas and could make the winter wheat crop, assuming all else is equal.

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FRIDAY: The storm we are tracking will be moving through the Rockies.  We may start to see more clouds as a persistent southeast flow pulls clouds northwest from a weak system tracking from the southern Plains to southeast USA.  The Rockies storm will start to generate some heavy rain and thunderstorms across the western Plains later Friday and it will be around through the weekend as the rain moves from south to north, but not that far east.

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RAINFALL FORECAST FRIDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY: This is kinda ridiculous.  Rainfall amounts will likely reach 2″ to 5″ with some locations seeing 6″ across the western Plains.  This is 1-2 months worth of rainfall and much needed.  The storm will move east and weaken early next week.  The latest data has .10″ to .50″ for our region.  There is still a chance the storm holds together a  bit longer, so we could still end up with .50″ to 1″.

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If the storm does make it here, it will likely take until Monday, so we have some great Spring weather through the weekend.  We will just have a few more clouds over the weekend.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

Freeze Warning and Dry Weather

Good Monday bloggers,

Well, we missed another good rain event as 1″-3″ occurred across southern Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  We saw trace to .10″  amounts and that fell Sunday morning.  We now have a cool air mass headed south and tonight with a clear sky, light wind and dry air, temperatures will tank to the upper 20s and low 30s.  Northern Missouri may see lows 23-25.  It was in the low 20s there on Saturday morning.  Is this the last freeze?  I would say most likely, but there is a slight chance in about two weeks.

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We are going to now be dry through at least Saturday or Sunday with highs returning to the 70s by Thursday.  So, the good news is that we are in store for some great weather.  The bad news is that we need rain.  Moderate drought conditions are spreading across Kansas.  Our area is in an increasing area of abnormally dry.  This will worsen quickly if we do not see rain.  The Hard Red Winter Wheat areas of western Kansas really need some rain even though some locations saw .10-1″ the last 24 hours.

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We are tracking a storm system for the end of the week into the weekend and early next week.  This is going to be a slow mover with copious moisture.  There is the potential for a drought stopping, winter wheat crop making rain, from this storm system.  This storm will drop into the Rockies this weekend.  It will be perfectly placed to inundate the western Plains.  It will move east early next week and, bringing our area rain, but  not as much as it weakens.

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RAINFALL FORECAST  SATURDAY-THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK: Wow!  This is not data error.  Southwest Kansas to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles could see 5″-10″ of rain.  That would be an extremely rare event.  Is it true?  Well, lets say it is possible, but still 5-7 days away.  So, it will change.  I would say, if the upper level set up remains fairly consistent, at least 1″-4″ of rain are possible .  Our area could see more or  less as well, depending on how this storm moves out into the Plains.  Let’s hope we receive at least 1″ of rain.

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Have a great week and enjoy the nice weather.

Jeff

Storm update & a look to less wind

As mentioned yesterday, today was all about the sunshine. The clouds helped keep things quiet in Kansas City, but that was not the case for others. This was the tweet I sent out earlier this afternoon:
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And then just a couple hours later, this is what the visible satellite looked like:
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The first thunderstorms started showing up at 4:46p. Not bad for my 5pm prediction!
You can see a broken line of bubbling cumulus clouds forming on the image above. Whereas the lower stratus clouds were hanging over KC.
Those clouds were important to keeping the storms away from the city.
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As the cold front slid through this afternoon, the heat of the day and the forcing was enough to generate some lift in the atmosphere and help produce a few small storms near the Clinton & Warsaw areas. An area that saw a little of that sunshine in the afternoon.
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The area in blue is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that is in place until midnight. I expect the top few counties to be removed from the watch shortly as the cold front continues to slide through the area.

Looking at the storms that are out there, they are nothing too spectacular. Cloud tops are around 50,000 feet, which may be enough to generate some hail near the size of quarters.
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That may be the primary threat tonight: hail. It would not surprise me to see a storm drop hail near the size of golfballs, but generally speaking, it’ll be smaller hail and a lot of heavy rain. Again, these storms will be to the South of I-70 and well South of Kansas City Metro.

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As we go more into the nighttime hours, the threat for severe weather is going to diminish. That said, there is still a chance for some overnight rain & thunderstorms. I feel the most likely area for that will be South of I-70. Our Powercast model has been picking up on this a little bit:
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Don’t be surprised to experience a little rain overnight into mid-morning Monday South of the Interstate.  I expect the clouds to break up in our Southern areas by the late afternoon as the rain pushed away.

Sliding through the day on Monday, we are faced with a breezy North wind. That will help cut the temperatures down compared to Sunday, with highs only in the 50s for many Monday. It should be a tad milder on Tuesday.
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The thing that may have many excited is the lack of wind expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. I think speeds will be under 15mph both days. How about that?!
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I don’t know what to do on a day with no wind…

In terms of temperatures, the one day this week that may “get” people is early Tuesday morning. Temperatures could fall into the 20s and 30s to start the day, so another freeze possible. Keep those plants in mind.
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I expect readings to warm up in the afternoons for the second half of the week, putting us back into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week.

We will continue to keep you updated on things for this evening. Otherwise plan for a cooler couple of days ahead.

How about those Royals!?
-JD

Sunday Evening Thunderstorms?

Good Sunday bloggers,

We have had a few showers and thunderstorms this morning.  Some locations saw nothing, other received .10″ to .25″.  The rest of today will be mostly cloudy and mild with highs 70°-74°, 60s in northern Missouri and near 80° in southeast Kansas.  A front will drift by this afternoon and it looks like when most of the thunderstorms form on the front it will be well south.  Overnight into early Monday we may see a few showers and thunderstorms as we will be on the far northern edge of a large area of rain and thunderstorms.

The morning showers and thunderstorms are now exiting the area through northern Missouri.

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SUNDAY EVENING: The whole system is sagging south and this is where the main showers and thunderstorms will be located.  We may see a few along and south of I-70 between 5 PM and 10 PM as the front is sagging through.  So, it looks pretty good if you are headed out to the Royals game.  It will be mostly cloudy, dry with temperatures at or just above 70°.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: If you missed the rain this morning, most likely you will miss it tonight unless you live 80-100 miles south of KC.  New rainfall amounts of a trace-.20″ are possible.  If we can get a thunderstorm to form this evening, then some locations could get a quick .25″ to .50″.  It looks like most of the rain will be along I-44.

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Our next decent rain chance is in a week, so that may be the time for the fertilizer.

Let’s Go Royals

Have a great week

Jeff

Tracking a chance for Sunday thunderstorms

This is how you know it’s Spring in our area: we had a hard freeze in some areas this morning, and by tomorrow we could see some thunderstorms in the same area. Amazing. Check out how cold it was this morning:
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The wind is going to stay strong during the Royals game tonight, that will help keep the temperatures up.
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Notice too the small chance for a shower just before sunrise. More on that in a second.

Here’s the forecast for those heading out to watch the game at Kauffman tonight:
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You may still need a coat or sweatshirt while watching the game, thanks to the wind.

Turning our focus to Sunday, there are some various variables we have to stay on top of. First of them will be the clouds. Should we wind up with an overcast/cloudy sky all day, then the odds for any kind of strong to severe thunderstorms will be very low.
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If we get the sun to break out before about 3-4pm, then we could wind up with some boomers that are a little bit stronger.
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Now aside from the clouds, the timing of the incoming cold front will also be key. Based on the latest guidance, I think that front cuts through around the mid-afternoon. Should the front come through a little sooner in the day, that would limit our risk of stronger thunderstorms. At this time, the better chance for thunderstorms is going to be outside of our coverage area.
The outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the intersection of Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri/Arkansas is the target for Sunday.
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That doesn’t mean that some stronger storms aren’t possible in the darker shade of green.

The latest information is suggesting we get a few morning rain and thundershowers. I do not expect these to be severe.
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But do not be surprised to hear a few claps of thunder. We could use the rain. More on that in a bit.

Let’s take a look at a few snapshots from the forecast models for the afternoon. The latest RPM has me a hair concerned…but not why you may think.
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It tries to develop a small thunderstorm near St. Joseph at about 1pm. Should that happen and should it happen about 75-100 miles farther South, then we could have issues at the ballpark. Hopefully that doesn’t happen!

From there, the model keeps things quiet through the afternoon, until about 6pm. Then it generates some activity South of I-70.
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Looking even closer at that image, you can see the wind flow and get an idea of where the cold front may be.

The better chances for rain still appear to be overnight into the very early morning hours of Monday. However, I think the rain will wind up falling in Southern Missouri into Arkansas. A peek at the precip totals from Sunday morning through Monday morning look like this:
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Once again, the moisture seems to miss our area. It’s not getting bad yet, but the newest drought monitor that came out on Thursday shows how the drought is creeping closer to our area.
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After the cold front comes through Sunday night, we go back to the cooler air for a couple of days.
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The tradeoff is: we may finally see a couple of days with ligher wind speeds!

Jeff is back Sunday morning and will have a fresh look at the forecast. We will keep you updated on the threat for thunderstorms.
Have a good night and GO ROYALS!
-JD

April Freeze and Paltry Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

It is a cold start to the weekend with a light freeze ongoing in KC and a hard freeze across northern Missouri, Iowa and all points north.  It was 4° in Duluth!

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We could use some rain, but once again the next storm system and front are just not getting their act together around here.  Today will be partly cloudy, breezy and dry with highs warming to around 60°.  Then, a disturbance will approach later tonight and Sunday morning with increasing moisture.  So, we will see lots of clouds and wind with a few rain showers.  The best chance will be along I-44

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5 PM SUNDAY: A front is sagging across the area with dew points close to 60°, however the surface low is sagging south as the main upper level energy is located across the southern Plains.  So, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow evening, but coverage will be low.

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7 AM MONDAY:  The best chance of rain will be across southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  We are on the northern edge.  Hopefully, it will come further north, but the chance of that is 20%.

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SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: The marginal and slight risks our south of our area.  Nevada to Clinton are on the northern edge of the marginal risk.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: The best chance for widespread 1-2″ rain will be across southern Missouri.  Our area will likely see a trace to perhaps .10″ to .25″ in some spots.  If a thunderstorm can get going along the front Sunday evening or if some rain drifts north early Monday, then some locations could see .50″ to .75″, mostly south.  The chance of a widespread 1-2″ rain in our area is rather low.

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If you are headed to the Royals game tonight it will be dry, breezy and cool with temperatures falling to the 50s from around 60°.  If you are headed to the game Sunday it will be most likely dry with a few showers in the morning and the chance of a thunderstorm after 5 PM.  So, if the game does not go into extra innings Sunday it will be dry for the game with temperatures in the 70s.

Have a great weekend and Let’s go Royals!

Jeff

Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Tonight

Good Tuesday bloggers,

A cold front is on the way and will bring a decent chance for a period of showers and thunderstorms tonight.  There is little change from yesterday.  The good news is that the rain will hold off until tonight, after the Royals game.  There may be a few sprinkles this afternoon as we have mostly virga out there, but a few drops are making it to the ground.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather with the chance of thunderstorms tonight.  The main threat will be for a few thunderstorms to produce quarter sized hail and brief 50-60 mph wind gusts.  There is just 5% chance that occurs within 25 miles of your location.  This is under a slight risk and we do not expect an upgrade to a slight risk as the dew points are too low, 45°-55°.

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1115 PM TUESDAY NIGHT: Here comes the band of showers and thunderstorms.  There will be a few brief heavy downpours and some small hail.  If there is anything stronger, it will be isolated.

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145 AM WEDNESDAY: The band of showers and thunderstorms will be moving through as the cold front approaches.

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10 AM WEDNESDAY: The rain and cold front will be long gone as cooler air rushes in.  Lows tomorrow morning will be near 50°, but through the day temperatures will only rise 5-15 degrees as northwest winds gusting to 40 mph with areas of clouds bring in the cooler air.  A new cold front arrives Thursday night with no rain as the humidity will be way too low.

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How much rain will we see tonight?  Some locations may see a trace-.40″ with others seeing over .40″.  Below is the rainfall forecast from the 12z NAM.  This is not much, but we will take what we can get.  There may be a stripe of rainfall amounts close to an inch.  It will most likely occur across northern Missouri, but could end up anywhere.

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The rain will hold off for the Royals game.  However, the wind will be blowing out with gusts 40-45 mph.  So, the ball will be carrying, pitchers beware.

Have a great day and Let’s Go Royals!

Jeff