Meteorologists across most of the country are having the same problem today: finding something to talk about! Another day of benign weather for most of the USA. But boring for us is good for you!
The map above shows current alerts across the country. There is an area near the East Coast that is under active frost advisories. You’ll also notice a few counties lit up in Arkansas (Flood warnings) and in Arizona (blowing dust), but everyone else is quiet. No severe weather in the continental US again today. Not that I am complaining at all, it’s just rare to have multiple days of quiet weather from coast to coast.
I still do not expect things to change much. I won’t rehash the blog from last night, but I’ll just say this: Chamber weather. This is the kind of stuff the chamber of commerce loves! Not too hot, not too cool. No rain, no snow, no major wind. It’s all perfect weather to show off a town. Fitting since the San Francisco Giants are on the way in for the big game.
We do have a couple events going on in Kansas City to start the week. For starters, Monday night World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) will bring their flagship show “Raw” to the Sprint Center. While there may be a stigma around the sport of wrestling, it’s still an economic advantage for the cities that host the event. This will pull in people from surrounding areas to watch the show. Moreover, it’s broadcast around the world live. So many will get to see our beautiful city shining brightly. And, the weather is going to be great.
Then starting on Tuesday, it’s the event we’ve been waiting almost thirty years to witness: the World Series in Kansas City. And here again, you really could not ask for better weather.
Wednesday is almost a direct copy of Tuesday, except the cloud should thicken up as we go through the day. I don’t think any rain falls from those clouds until Thursday. Then after that, indications are we’ll begin to warm right back up into the 70s. Not bad at all.
I hope you all enjoy the excitement and the attention that is on our area. It’s going to be a heck of a ride. As for me, I get to take a few days off. But you can bet I’ll be cheering on the Royals just like many of you!
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Days like this, it’s tough to find things to write about in the ol’ blog! Despite a chilly morning with lows in the lower 40s, we managed to bounce into the lower 60s this afternoon with lots of sunshine.
As I pointed out in the newscast tonight, there is a subtle little swirl in the upper atmosphere near the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. This is going to continue to drift to the East and I do not expect it to impact our weather much at all.
To break this down and get a little nerdy for a second, I checked out the guidance for Sunday in the mid to upper levels for moisture. Images like this one…
Gives me confidence that we’ll likely see more in the way of mid to higher level clouds on Sunday. Surface winds are expected to be out of the South but as you can see here, upper winds will be from the West to Southwest. So I think that even though we’ll have less sunshine Sunday, our temperatures will still be warmer (by about 5-7 degrees). All-in-all, it’s shaping up to be a nice day! And I tell you what, that warming trend just continues.
The only day of the next 7-10 that looks below average to me is Thursday. We could also see some rain that day too. Models are just now picking up on it, but I continue to raise my eyebrow. Recall last week models were saying we’d have rain tomorrow into Monday. That’s obviously not going to happen. So while both the Euro and the GFS are calling for it, I want to give it one more day before I really believe it. Right now I am keeping the chance at just 30%. It’s possible it does what the little disturbance in the panhandles is doing now: not much.
Let’s talk Royals weather, huh? This is looking great! Game one is on Tuesday and it’s truly going to be awesome.
Don’t forget we’re getting toward the time of the year where highs will happen around 3 to 4pm and then the sun will set around 6:30pm or so (even though there will still be light in the sky). This means temperatures will quickly level off around sunset. So Tuesday afternoon will be warm, but by game time we’ll already have lost some of that warmth. Hey, it’s Fall after all! We haven’t played baseball in KC this late in the season in a very long time.
Speaking of Fall, how about the colors on those trees? Amazing to see, isn’t it?
Have your cameras handy and take a few pictures of the great colors over the next few days and weeks (be sure to submit them to our site & maybe we’ll feature a few on air). It’s going to look great out there.
Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!
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Still soaking in that Royals win? I know many are! If only the weather here was as exciting, right? We have a pretty ho-hum forecast in store for the next several days. That said, there is a weak little cold front knocking on our door tonight.
Looking at just the surface temps, it’s not easy to find.
However, looking at the winds and dew points, it becomes a little easier to see. And with that, you get an image like this:
So as you can see, we actually have two cold fronts looming to the North. The one that is passing through now will drop our temps by about 8-12 degrees for Friday. Considering we made the upper 70s today, that’s not too bad at all! But that second wave will arrive by Saturday morning. That means we’ll start out chilly and not warm up all that much.
Looking over all the information, models are clustering around 42/41 for lows Saturday and Sunday morning. High temps for Saturday are pegged to be around 61 and then on Sunday we had about six degrees.
My method of forecasting involves looking at several different models and seeing the trends as well as finding a rough average. So in this case, for Saturday, models say 60, 61, 62, 61, 62. On Sunday, it’s: 67, 68, 67, 66. Based on that, and the fact we’ve been getting a touch warmer than guidance has suggested lately, I’m optimistic about the “high end” of those values. You’ll see that reflected in my forecast.
Just like an artist can “see” things differently sometimes, forecasters can too. Gather four or five forecasts in a room, give them the same exact data and say “make a forecast”… you’ll probably get something a little different from each one. So if you ever wonder why place so-and-so says xx and other place yadda-yadda says xx, now you know!
Let’s talk about the Tropics a little bit. There is a MAJOR storm setting aim on Bermuda tonight. Look at this thing from the satellite picture:
Right now, the eye is going through a regeneration. Earlier today that eyewall was much larger. The latest hurricane recon that flew through the storm verifies that a new wall is setting up. That means this monster is maintaining strength as it heads Northeast.
At latest report (8p) is a category 4 storm with winds sustained at 145mph. It is expected to pass just to the West of Bermuda tomorrow (Friday) afternoon.
A look at a few of the snapshots from the projected path:
Bermuda is the home to about 65,ooo people. In the last 24 hours there have been photos of people lined up at the airport, trying to get off the island. As about 7p tonight, the last flight left. Those who did not get aboard a plane are there to ride this out. It’s going to be a frightening time, no doubt. And you cannot get caught up in the category number. A big concern with this will be the ocean swells. We’re talking walls of water measured in feet that will slam against the island. Add in the 100+ mile per hour winds, and it’s not going to be pretty.
The last major hurricane to strike Bermuda was Fabian in 2003, a Category 3 storm that killed four people. And while the newest forecast show the center will pass just to the West of the island, that’s not always a good thing.
The colored circles you see on those last two images indicate where the strongest winds will be. So it’s obvious the entire island is going to be trampled by this storm.
We will continue to watch all of this and give updates. In the meantime, I almost feel guilty that our weather is so quiet compared to what those poor people are about to face.
To end this on a happier note: I took a look back at the weather we had in Kansas City for the 1985 World Series. Here’s what I found, showcased in a somewhat “retro” looking graphic:
And it looks like things are shaping to be a little nicer this time around for those first two games: sunshine and temps in the mid to upper 60s.
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Congratulations to the Kansas City Royals!!
If you’re wondering: right now the trends suggest that Game 1 of the World Series in Kansas City will be great: sunny to partly cloudy with highs near 70°.
Check out this sunset show from 6:30p over Kauffman. Amazing. What a season, what a team, what a feeling.
Congrats to the team and to you, the fans. What a a time to be in Kansas City!
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The rain is gone, the sun came back and yesterday is but a memory. However, the wind has been pesky. We mentioned several times yesterday that the wind would be a factor. As we move more toward sundown, the winds should taper off. They won’t completely drop off, but they will ease up. Here is what I am thinking:
Those would be sustained wind speeds; gusts may be 8-12 miles per hour higher.
A few were wondering what would have happened if yesterday’s storm had fallen a few weeks to a month later. Or, if it had just been below freezing. Well, the numbers have been crunched and this is what could have happened had it been about 30° yesterday:
Bottom line: many of us would still be shoveling snow today! I know many are thinking/asking/hoping this is the start of a new pattern and this exact same storm will come around again. I, personally, am not the expert on that. Also, this is still a bit of a transition period. My personal opinion right now is: don’t bet the farm on this exact same thing coming back in 45-55 days. Could a variant of it return? Yes. But that’s not set in stone right now.
In the short-term, it should be dry for the next few days. Temps will start to warm as well.
Two longer range models I looked at today (GFS & ECMWF) are hinting at a storm system for next Sunday night into Monday. The GFS is going much more aggressive than the Euro. This is typical. It’s a fact the GFS has more issues than the Euro and has shown to be less accurate compared to the Euro model. Now while that doesn’t mean you just immediately toss out the GFS model, but it does mean you can’t put all your eggs in that basket.
Also, comparing the GFS 12z run to the 18z run, the model has already changed its mind on intensity and timing.
Here is the GFS version for Sunday afternoon:
And this is the Euro’s version:
Again, a much different viewpoint from each model. As all, we’ll continue to keep tabs on this and update as the weekend gets closer. Until then, it’s a great night for some Royals baseball!
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The rain continues but is starting to taper off. Latest report from the NWS says rainfall for the month of October is now at 8.86″. So that means:
I’ll have more on this plus some new info on the Royals forecast for tomorrow night. Hope to see you at 10p.
As you do doubt heard by now, the lights are not on and the boys are not playing ball tonight at The K. Score one for the atmosphere.
We’ve had rain in the forecast for Monday for a long time now. But, as feared, the system slowed down. Last week, it was looking like it would be in and outta here in time for the game. However, by Friday night and Saturday, all indications were that this thing was going to stick around. Now, here we are. And…there it is.
This slow-moving system is taking it’s sweet time to depart the area. Sure, many are unhappy that the game was postponed into Tuesday. But hey, we’ve been waiting 29 years—what’s one more day? Or, could it be two?? I do believe that given the slow nature of this thing, rain may linger into the early afternoon of Tuesday, but it would be to the EAST of KC. The Metro should be dry by about noon at the latest. That said, I know many just want to know about the game. Yes, the rain will be outta here in time for the game Tuesday night.
So you might be wondering if this thing has dropped inches upon inches of rain. Well, no. Matter of fact, the numbers are somewhat unimpressive for many (but not all) areas. (Updated as of 8:30p)
As usual, this is not the whole story. Looking at the radar estimated rainfall number, we can see there were some heavier spots outside of the official reporting locations.
Certainly not the ark-building storm some might have thought it was going to be. Still, rain is rain and when you couple it with the cool temps and the wind, it just was not a good night for baseball.
For the record, MLB has a contract with at least one national weather company who they consult with on things like this. The choice to cancel the game is not up to the Royals, not up to the National Weather Service, and certainly not up to the local TV meteorologists. Many factors are considered before postponing a game; it’s a hassle for all. But in this instance, it was the right choice in my opinion. This game would have been miserable and unsafe.
To step back for a second, let’s look at this storm system from outer space.
This animated loop of the water vapor is impressive. Look at that ball of energy hurl through the central part of the country. I showcased this a little bit in my Sunday night “Geek” video on my Facebook page.
On the other side of this storm, through parts of the South, there has been a line of severe weather pretty much all day. Many tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. As of 7:15p, the amount is not as impressive as it was earlier, but still you can see the large area this single storm is impacting. It basically stretches from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.
Going back to the rainfall in Kansas City, it’s no surprise that this October has been a soaker. We’ve now moved into the number three spot on the all-time wettest October list (as of 8p Monday night). And I am willing to bet we give the number one spot a chase by the end of the month. **Updated chart. Previously we were in the #4 spot**
So how will the Royals forecast shake out for Tuesday and Wednesday? I will answer that question coming up tonight at 10p on 41 Action News. Hope to see you there! For now, we have to continue to be patient, just like we’ve done for almost three decades. The rain is simply just added drama into this amazing season for our Kansas City Royals.
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UPDATE: 930 PM SUNDAY
The new data is in and there is very little change. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will move in 6 AM to 9 AM Monday with the rain basically lasting into Tuesday morning. So, Game 3 is in serious jeopardy and we will easily become the second wettest October ever and have our eyes on #1.
The wettest is 11.94″ (1941). #2 is 8.83″ (1967)
Wow! What a weather pattern.
Kalee Dionne will have an update Monday.
Have a good night.
Good Sunday bloggers,
First, how about them Royals? Incredible. I was 15 in 1985 and remember the World Series well. It is my opinion that this years team is a bit better than the ’85 team. The one thing this team lacks is George Brett, but the rest of the 2014 Royals are more athletic with equivalent pitching.
Ok, now on to the weather. There is a rather wet and strong storm system headed our way and it will likely impact “them Royals”. Also, keep in mind, KCI has received 7.48″ of rain this month. This is just about 4″ away from the wettest October ever!
As we break this storm down, watch the rain gauges.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dry and Mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s. There is going to be mist this morning.
EARLY MONDAY MORNING (4 AM-9 AM): The first of 2-3 rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms moves in.
MIDDAY MONDAY (11 AM-3 PM): More heavy rain and thunderstorms. This could lead to flash flooding as the ground is saturated.
Look at the rain gauges, getting close to 2″ by noon Monday.
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (3 PM-7 PM): The rain may let up for a few hours as the thunderstorms move off and the main storm begins to close off in southern Missouri.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT into TUESDAY MORNING (7 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday): As the storm system closes off in the location it will be (southern Missouri), it puts our region in the northwest quadrant of the storm system. This is where the comma head of the storm system forms. It is in the comma head where you can have hours of precipitation and strong north-northwest winds. Well, it appears we will be in the comma head Monday night into Tuesday morning as the storm system slowly moves east. This will impact Game 3 scheduled for Monday night, first pitch 7:07 PM. You never know, they can play through light rain, but this could be a steady moderate rain. So, Game 3 is likely to occur Tuesday. It may be raining into Tuesday afternoon, so even Tuesday will be a close call on the game, but it will likely be dry Tuesday night.
In the map above, this is 7 PM Monday and the rain is increasing as the comma head takes shape. First pitch is 7 minutes away!
As you can see above the rain is still in place at 7 AM Tuesday, so it rains all Monday night, not conducive to playing baseball. This is close to set in stone, but could change and we will have a quick blog update tonight.
The threat will shift from flash flooding with the heavy downpours to a slower flooding issue with the steady moderate rain. A flash flood or flood watch will likely be issued later today.
Now lets use the rain total around downtown for a count to the wettest October ever.
7.48″ + 2.32″ = 9.80″ This would leave us 2.14″ shy of the record. But, we still have half a month to go. We will be watching this closely all month. And, we could see more than 2.32″, stay tuned. Now the second wettest ever is 8.83″ in 1967, so it looks like second place is a slam dunk! Wow!
Have a great day and go Royals!
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Those up early this morning or who slept with the window open (like I did) woke up to a chill this morning! Our lows dipped down into the thirties in many areas.
Along our northern tier of counties, temps were close to freezing and some saw frost. This may happen again tonight in that same area. However, those along and South of I-70 should stay in the 40s again thanks to cloud cover.
I expect those clouds to continue to drift North and make for a mostly cloudy sky on Monday across the area. Despite this, I do think our highs make the low to middle 60s. Not that bad for this time of year.
Late Sunday, a system will creep into the area and this thing will move slowly across the region. That is going to spell trouble for the Royals game on Monday.
A look at the most recent mix of models (12z Euro along with the 18z GFS, NAM, & RPM) all suggest there will be wrap-around moisture that moves back into the KC area late Monday. Based on what I’ve seen, we’ll likely have heavy rain and thunder storms overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Then things will taper off through the midday only to return right around game time Monday night.
Based on that, here is how I see the rain odds for Monday:
As you can imagine, this may become a problem for the Royals game Monday night. I have checked and rechecked… there is no button on my system to make the rain go away!
One bit of good news: we’ll go on a bit of a warming trend toward the end of the week.
I’ll be in for Gary all this coming week, tracking the warm up and that rain for Monday. I’ll also be on air again tonight at 10p with the latest forecast information. Things could change, so make sure you’re watching! Until then, enjoy the weekend sports events and…… GO ROYALS!
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Good Friday Evening Bloggers,
The Royals will play tonight! Now, will they play Monday night when they get back home. A major storm is now likely going to form, and this storm will be part of the cycling pattern this winter as we are now fully into the new LRC. It is still early, but let’s watch this next storm closely. Do we need more rain? When in the past few years was the answer NO!
Incredibly, after just the first ten days of the month KCI Airport is up to 7.47″, which is less than four inches from the wettest October ever recorded. There is a chance that one to three more inches of rain could accumulate on Monday, but first let’s enjoy one very nice day:
By Sunday, energy will be diving south over the Rocky Mountains and it will then begin affecting our area by Sunday. And, then by Monday the storm is forecast to mature into a very strong and functional storm producing a real comma head. I say “real” because we have not had many of these chances in the past couple of years. I will be going in-depth into the details of the cycling pattern on the Weather2020 site.
The timing and strength of this storm is still in question. This storm will also produce a severe weather risk, most likely over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Let’s see how it sets up. Here is a picture from Thursday morning:
JD Rudd will update the blog Saturday afternoon. By then we should be able to narrow in on a more specific forecast. Have a great weekend. And, GO ROYALS.
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Good evening bloggers,
Last night did it again, the northland had by far much more rain than the south side of the kc metro area had a ridiculously low amount:
These were the totals as of 5 PM. How much rain have you received, and thunderstorms are increasing with a larger area of rain moving in with round 2 of this storm. And, then we have another storm following up this one that will be due in Sunday into Monday. Before we get to the second storm, let’s look at the radar as of 5:40 PM:
Thunderstorms have survived all the way into Douglas county. Will they make it to the areas that have only had 0.20″ today? They did make it to Topeka? The new data has come in for the next system, and there will be a strong trough aloft digging over the plains over the weekend. Rain and thunderstorms should increase Sunday afternoon into early Monday, but this system appears that it will move just fast enough to get out of here on Monday evening for the Royals game. I will be going to my first playoff game on Monday night. Go Royals!
Have a great night. We will get the blog updated early on Monday. JD is filling in for Kalee who is taking the day off tomorrow.
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