1040 PM UPDATE:
We will see a few thunderstorms overnight as a weak disturbance moves by.
We have been watching for the potential of thunderstorms this evening. The chance has been dropping with every passing hour as the convergence along a dry line is weak, there is warm air aloft, capping vertical development of the cumulus clouds, and the main energy is well north. If nothing happens by 9-10 PM, it will be dry the rest of the night.
TUESDAY PM: The dry line is in eastern Kansas, but there is not much convergence. It is rather hot, so we will watch closely for any thunderstorms through 9-10 PM. The chance is 20%.
TUESDAY PM SATELLITE: As of 4 PM, there are no discernible fine lines of cumulus clouds that we can find that will become thunderstorms. There is an area of cumulus clouds between Wichita and Emporia, but most of those are behind the dry line and they do not look that tall. Again, we will keep an eye on this.
WEDNESDAY: Our attention is turning to a heat wave. Tomorrow we will have a west wind behind the dry line and this will allow us to soar into the 90s. Highs will reach over 100° in western Kansas which is actually good for the wheat harvest. We will see highs 95°-97° which makes this the hottest day of 2016, so far.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW END OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND: The jet stream will be well retreated as a large upper level high forms from the southwest USA to Midwest, also known as the “Heat Wave Creating Machine.” . This will cause much sinking motion and dry, hot weather. We need three straight days of 95° or higher for a heat wave. Officially, we are not going for this yet, but it will be close. And, we may have to re-think the forecast to increase the temperatures.