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The Royals Home Opener Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

An area of snow is spreading across Nebraska and South Dakota this morning as a clipper-like system is tracking across the plains into the Great Lakes states this morning. Here is the radar as of 7:45 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2017-04-10 at 7.38.01 AM

This afternoon, the surface storm associated with this wave will be tracking into the Chicago, IL vicinity with a band of rain and a few thunderstorms. The snow will continue near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, and a cold front will be approaching Kansas City just as the Royals home openers first pitch is made around 3 PM.

Royals Hat 2

Here is the set up for this afternoon:

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The Royals then have Tuesday off, and game two at home will be Wednesday night. The latest NAM model has a dry forecast for Wednesday evening:

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The rain chances appear they will increase later Wednesday night into Thursday.

Go Royals!

Gary

Sunday Evening Severe Weather?

Good Sunday,

Today will be mostly cloudy, dry and windy with highs 75°-80°.  Then, after 6 PM we will be watching the radar closely as there will be a chance for a few thunderstorms.  If they form, they  could be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.  There are two main factors that could inhibit thunderstorm formation.  One, is how warm will we get at the surface.  There will be quite a bit of clouds, but most will be high clouds, so highs will warm to 75°-80°.  This may not be quite warm enough to overcome factor two.  There is a warm layer at about 3000-6000 feet.  This is what we call the “Cap”.  So, basically we will have to watch radar and the set up closely through the day.  Let’s go through this forecast.

We are in a slight risk today, mainly west of I-35 for the potential of thunderstorms containing large hail and damaging winds, especially after 6 PM.

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3 PM SUNDAY: This is a set up that indicates severe weather potential, especially April-June.  Again, the limiting factors are in place and there is no thunderstorm activity at this time.

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7 PM TO 3 AM SUNDAY: This is the time when the cold front overtakes the dry line and the “Cap” weakens.  So, we will have to watch for thunderstorm development from KC south and east.  If they form after sunset, they will likely be elevated with large hail the main threat.  There are some models indicating a few strong to severe thunderstorms will form in eastern Kansas to southwest and west Missouri.  Again, we will have to watch the situation closely.

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7 AM MONDAY: This the morning of the Royals home opener and there is snow falling in Nebraska!  The snow will stay north of I-80, so the weather is looking good for the game.  We will start the day with temperatures 45°-50°.

 

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3 PM MONDAY: It will be sunny and windy with temperatures in the 60s.  The wind will be blowing towards right field.  Let’s Go Royals!  We are the official meteorologist of the Kansas City Royals.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: This is our next chance of widespread rain.  We could see amounts .25″-1″.  We will need it by then as it dries out fast this time of year, especially with all of the wind.

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Keep an eye to the sky tonight and have a great week.

Jeff

A Super Saturday

Good Saturday,

The weather has been improving on a daily basis since Wednesday and today will be the warmest day since March 23rd.  We have some really nice weekend weather ahead, but there is also a chance of thunderstorms.  So, lets go through the weather today into Monday.  There is an important baseball game on Monday and we will end with the forecast for that event.

It was a beautiful start to the weekend with temperatures in the 50s as the sun rose through the cirrus clouds.

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SATURDAY: Today will be mostly sunny and windy with highs well into the 70s, if not 80° in a few locations.  The humidity will drift up by evening.

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SUNDAY: We have a set up tomorrow that screams severe weather when you are in April, May and June.  We have a surface low in northwest Iowa with a cold front, warm front and dry line coming out of the low.  The point where the fronts meet is called the “Triple Point.”.  It is this location, along the warm front and along the dry line where we must watch for the chance of severe thunderstorms.  There are some limiting factors that we will go into below.

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SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: There is a slight risk west of I-35 and a marginal risk east of I-35. If any thunderstorms can get going, the main threats would be large hail and damaging winds.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: If you look at the Sunday forecast map above, you can see a cooler wedge of temperatures where highs are around 70°.  This is due to the potential of low clouds hanging tough after they form tonight.  So, this is one limiting factor.  Another factor is warm air aloft, a “Cap”.  The cap alone may be enough to suppress thunderstorms, but if it is coupled with cooler surface temperatures the thunderstorm chance gets close to zero.

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SUNDAY EVENING: Since there are thick clouds, this latest data has just a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday evening, good news for Sporting KC.  We will have to watch this closely and see how this evolves.  We will know more Sunday as we can judge the extent of the low clouds.

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MONDAY: Regardless, of what we see Sunday night, it will be a dry day Monday for the Royals home opener as the system races by.  Right now it looks sunny and windy for the game with highs in the 60s.

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Our next rain chance after Sunday evening is Wednesday-Friday, but they do not look like big storm systems.

Have a great weekend and Let’s Go Royals!

Jeff

Improving Weather

Good Wednesday,

The storm system is on its way out and we are in for much better weather, starting Thursday.  The rest of today will see lingering scattered showers and also some sun as the wind continues.  Highs will climb to the low 50s.  Tonight will be clear with lows in the mid to upper 30s, leading to a sunny Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Some locations may see a light freeze Friday morning, followed by weekend highs in the 70s.  Our next chance of rain is Sunday night into Monday morning.  Right now it looks like it is out of here for the Royals home opener, but we do not need this thing to slow down by 18 hours.

POWERCAST 5 PM WEDNESDAY: You can see the scattered showers, clear areas, and highs in the low to mid 50s as the storm pulls away.

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Click on the video below to look at the rest of the crazy weather and we have some radar estimated rainfall totals for the last two days as well.  Remember, these are radar estimates, so your rain gauge may read different.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

 

Stormy Night

Good Tuesday,

The last in our series of storm systems will move through tonight and exit Wednesday.  We will have a period of heavy rain and thunderstorms tonight with some small hail possible.  There is a Flood Watch in effect as streams and rivers could rise from run-off as the ground is all of a sudden saturated.  This is not a Flash Flood watch which implies a more rapid flood situation.  Tomorrow morning will be windy and cold with rain and possibly a snowflake as temperatures may briefly dip to the 30s.  The storm exits quickly Wednesday afternoon.

FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT:

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Click on the video below for a more detailed look at this storm system.

Have a great rest of the week.

Jeff

A Strong Storm System Tuesday Night-Wednesday

Good Monday,

Well, one storm system is moving away and the next one is on the way.  This next storm system arrives later Tuesday and exits Wednesday.  We are on the cold side of this storm and we will have rain, thunderstorms and a strong north wind. There may even be a snowflake mixed in Wednesday as well as temperatures drop to the 30s for a few hours.  Wednesday will be a raw day.  The severe weather with this storm will be well south, but could get as close as southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.  A few of the thunderstorms here tomorrow night could produce small hail.  Tonight will be calm and cool with temperatures in the 40s.  Tuesday will see highs in the 50s.  There may be some sprinkles in the morning with rain showers increasing during the afternoon.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night.

Here is the rainfall from the storm Sunday into Monday.  KCI received 1.64″!  Olathe to Lee’s Summit saw mostly less than .50″.

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Click on the video below for a detailed look at this next storm system.

Have a great Tuesday and rest of your week.

Jeff

Active Week of Weather

Good Sunday,

We are tracking two storms systems, a blast of cold and huge warm up the next 7 days.  This morning we had the first part of storm #1.  The heaviest rain stayed east of KC, but scattered showers will be around until about noon.  The main part of storm #1 tracks into Missouri on Monday, putting our region in the comma head, northwest quadrant, of the storm.  This should bring us a nice widespread rain.  The storm will exit Monday afternoon and there may be a peek of sun before it sets Monday.  The second storm arrives Tuesday and exits Wednesday.  It looks like we will be in the comma head (cold side of the storm) of this storm as cold air comes rushing in.  So, this storm may bring heavy rain, strong north winds, a temperature drop to the 30s and yes perhaps some mixed snowflakes!  We then may have a freeze at the end of the week followed by a weekend warm up to near 80°!  That is a mouth full.  Click on the video below for a more detailed look at this wild weather pattern.

Here is an image of the Wednesday forecast map: Quite a storm

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Have a great week.

Jeff

Two More Storm Systems

Good Saturday,

Today will be another cloudy and cool day with highs around 50°.  We may see some sun this afternoon, if we do temperatures will jump to 55°.  This evening will be mainly dry, a few sprinkles possible, with temperatures around 50°.  We are tracking two more systems, which are #5 and #6 in the latest series.  The 6th storm will be the last for awhile as the drier pattern returns, so let’s get as much rain as we can the next five days.

STORM #1: Tonight-Monday

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Storm #2 affects us Tuesday and Wednesday.  Click on the video below for an in depth look at the wet start to April.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

 

 

April Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Today, we will look through April and show the forecast of some of the bigger weather events showing up using the LRC. The weather pattern is cycling and here are the first three cycles of this years pattern lined up on the LRC Index. When you see a dip in the lines, that indicates a  storm just passed by. I am really just showing you here that the pattern is cycling and regularly. It is far from perfect. You can see the first three cycles of this years pattern:

LRC Index April 1

We are near the end of this rather exciting and rainfall producing part of the pattern. March will come in with above average rainfall.

KCI Airport March Statistics:

  • Highest Temperature: 87° (19th)
  • Lowest Temperature: 19° (15th)
  • Total Rainfall: 2.81″ (0.45″ above average)
  • Total Snowfall: 0.4″
  • Average Temperature: 48.1° (4.0° above average)
  • There was a major severe weather outbreak on March 6th with a dozen tornadoes in the KC viewing area

It went from a major severe weather outbreak to snow, very cold, then very warm, and the month will end up cloudy and damp. Kansas City had a wetter than average March. It was warmer than average with below average snowfall. Incredibly, the lowest and high temperatures of the month came just four days apart. It was 19° on the 15th, and then 87° just four days later on the 19th.

April Forecast:

  • Below average rainfall
  • Above average temperatures
  • A good chance of a freeze around the 10th to the 17th
  • A huge warm up in the second half of the month. The part of the pattern that produced huge warm ups in late December and in late February will be cycling back through
  • There is a very good chance of a major severe weather outbreak between the 24th and 30th. Kansas City may be on the western edge of this outbreak

The current weather pattern:

Two weeks ago we described a series of six storm systems that fit the LRC that would impact the United States. Kansas City has been affected. It just rained seven days in a row with measurable rain on six of those days.

  • Storm #1: This first storm went by dry
  • Storm #2: 0.49″ on the 24th-25th
  • Storm #3: 0.45″ on 26th-27th
  • Storm #4: 1.45″ on 29th-30th
  • Storm #5: This weekend and we are forecasting between 0.10″ and 1.00″
  • Storm #6 and the last in this series: Tuesday-Wednesday….too early to call on amounts as the track is still highly uncertain

After this sixth storm we are expecting a long break before the middle of April system, related to the storm that produced Kansas City’s first inch of snow around December 17th, which is due in during that colder stretch in our April forecast.

Have a great day. We will look at the developing Saturday night-Sunday system in tomorrow mornings blog!  And, we will go over all of this on 41 Action News tonight on Friday Night In The Big Town!

Gary

Chance of Severe Thunderstorms

Good Wednesday,

We have finally received a nice rainfall with amounts around 1″ so far.  This makes it the wettest day since October 6th and we have not seen 1″ of rain in one day since September 13th, so the streak is over.  Now we turn our attention to the severe weather potential this evening.  The last several days it looked like the threat was going to be well south across eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.  But, the new data is creeping the warmer air further north towards I-70. so we now have a severe weather threat.  We are on the northern edge of the threat and it will depend on how warm we get and how far north a surface low tracks.  If the surface low comes close to KC and we see temperatures warm to the mid 60s, we could have a problem.  If it stays 50°-60°, that means the surface low is further south and the colder air is hanging on, and any thunderstorms will have much less chance of being severe.

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Click on the video below for a detailed look at this crazy weather day.

Have a great day,

Jeff