Good morning bloggers,
I am still blogging every morning on the Weather2020.com blog. The new LRC is set up and I want to go over some of the details with you as I posted over there this morning. We have many of the bloggers from the past over there having some great discussion every day. You don’t have to pay for it of course, but it keeps the trolls mostly out of there and it is only $1.99/month. Anyway, I am posting here as well today.
And, I am planning on doing a Facebook Live at 9 PM tonight to discuss the Thanksgiving week weather forecast. Like my Facebook.com/garylezak fan page and you can join in on the conversation tonight.
As we move into mid-November the very mild start to this season continues. There are some changes showing up that will need to be monitored closely and we can discuss them today. I am just about done with writing my script for the winter forecast that will be shown on 41 Action News, but I have not started writing up the one for the blog yet. There is still something within this pattern I haven’t put my finger on yet, so let’s give it a few more days.
Let’s begin by looking at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):
When the AO and NAO dip deeper into negative territory the potential for Arctic air building up and being released into the United States increases substantially. This is something we monitor closely every day. As you can see above both of these indexes have drifted positive int he past few days. The AO was mostly “living” in negative territory from the moment the LRC began in early October. This is one indication that we will eventually be visited by some pretty cold Arctic air this season. The NAO has been more neutral, but it is showing some signs of dipping negative. When these indexes dip lower there is an increased chance of blocking and splitting of the flow and this would increase the energy and push it farther south.
The models have been really all over the place and last nights model runs strongly trended towards some stormier weather Thanksgiving week. On the GFS model the flow is forecast to split big time over the eastern Pacific. This first map above shows the split and the southern branch of the jet stream producing a possible series of storm systems. I am hesitant to believe this as it just showed up on the latest model runs. It does have support from the European Model:
This forecast map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. It is actually somewhat in line with the GFS model. If you look at both models, you can see that the pattern actually looks similar. The waves are separated a bit, but otherwise this gives us a bit of confidence, but it will need to be backed up by the next few model runs. Here is what the European model shows at the surface:
This would be quite the wet storm system over the plains next Wednesday night. The Plaza Lighting is the next day, so it is something we are paying close attention to. Just to make sure we have perspective here, these models had it warm and dry on yesterdays runs.
We are currently in LRC Cycle 1. I know it has been a bit frustrating to start. Let’s continue to be patient and see what the rest of cycle 1 begins! I used to make our winter forecast by around November 10th, and then we had what we called “the panic period” because we would make the forecast and then we would see something we hadn’t seen yet. This could be about to happen. I hope so!
Have a great start to the week! I will leave you with this picture. This is the frost from yesterday/Sunday morning on what is called “suicide hill” in Brookside, MO. This is the hill that the kids use for sledding. Will the kids be sledding this winter?
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