First Heat Wave?

Good evening,

1040 PM UPDATE:

We will see a few thunderstorms overnight as a weak disturbance moves by.

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We have been watching for the potential of thunderstorms this evening.  The chance has been dropping with every passing hour as the convergence along a dry line is weak, there is warm air aloft, capping vertical development of the cumulus clouds, and the main energy is well north.  If nothing happens by 9-10 PM, it will be dry the rest of the night.

TUESDAY PM: The dry line is in eastern Kansas, but there is not much convergence.  It is rather hot, so we will watch closely for any thunderstorms through 9-10 PM.  The chance is 20%.

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TUESDAY PM SATELLITE: As of 4 PM, there are no discernible fine lines of cumulus clouds that we can find that will become thunderstorms.  There is an area of cumulus clouds between Wichita and Emporia, but most of those are behind the dry line and they do not look that tall.  Again, we will keep an eye on this.

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WEDNESDAY: Our attention is turning to a heat wave.  Tomorrow we will have a west wind behind the dry line and this will allow us to soar into the 90s.  Highs will reach over 100° in western Kansas which is actually good for the wheat harvest.  We will see highs 95°-97° which makes this the hottest day of 2016, so far.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW END OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND:  The jet stream will be well retreated as a large upper level high forms from the southwest USA to Midwest, also known as the “Heat Wave Creating Machine.” .  This will cause much sinking motion and dry, hot weather.  We need three straight days of 95° or higher for a heat wave.  Officially, we are not going for this yet, but it will be close.  And, we may have to re-think the forecast to increase the temperatures.

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Stay cool!

Jeff

Severe Weather Tuesday?

Good Monday evening,

A small disturbance is moving through the region today, which is why we have scattered showers and thunderstorms.  These will produce brief very heavy rain and possible wind gusts 20-30 mph.  After 8-9 PM most of the activity will be dissipated.

We turn our attention to new thunderstorms forming in southeast Colorado.  If these hold together they would arrive in KC 9-10 AM Tuesday.  This is rather important for the Tuesday forecast.  If these thunderstorms fall apart or move through in a weakened state like most of the computer data suggests, then we will be set up for a severe weather situation Tuesday evening.  This would be due to the fact we would become mostly sunny, hot and humid ahead of a dry line/surface trough.  If these thunderstorms are more robust in the morning, then this would have a better chance of stabilizing the atmosphere during the afternoon and greatly reducing the Tuesday evening severe threat.

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TUESDAY EVENING: This is the solution that has little morning thunderstorm activity.  We would see scattered thunderstorms 6-10 PM Tuesday, and due to the fact they would be more separate, we could see all forms of severe weather.

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TUESDAY SEVERE RISK: There is an Enhanced Slight Risk which means a 30% chance for all forms of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.

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So, we really will not know for sure how Tuesday plays out until the morning, as it hinges on the widespread nature of the morning activity.  If the morning activity is more robust, they could have strong winds and heavy rain with a much less Tuesday evening severe threat.  If the morning thunderstorms are weak, then all forms of severe weather will be possible Tuesday evening.

Have a great night.

Jeff

One Main Widespread Rain Chance

Good Sunday,

We are in for yet another day of haze, heat and humidity with highs in the low 90s.  Cumulus clouds will form and build today and a few will form into small showers and thunderstorms.  Yesterday there were about 4 downpours in the viewing area.  Today there may be 10-20.  We need a widespread rain as it is drying out quickly after such a wet May.

There is a Sprinkler watch, or even warning.  A lawn needs 1″-2″ of rain per week to stay nice and green.  Well, the last 7 days have seen basically no rain.  The next 7 days we have a chance to see .10″-1″ with the chance of 2″.  It hinges on one main chance of rain, Tuesday morning.  Now, there is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Monday, like today.  The best chance may occur Monday morning if overnight thunderstorms that form in the high plains can make it in.  Right now the chance is 20-30%.

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TUESDAY:  Monday night will see thunderstorms form in the high Plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas.  These will roll east Monday night, so that by early Tuesday there will be a nice cluster of rain and thunderstorms in northern Kansas and southeast Nebraska.  At this point, these thunderstorms will either take off to the northeast and miss us, or turn southeast and bring some nice rain Tuesday morning.  It is hard to tell how this will evolve, so the chance is 50-50.  This is for sure the best rain chance of the week.

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TUESDAY: This model has the rain moving in Tuesday morning.  This would be nice to see.  If this round is weak, then we have a new chance Tuesday evening as a dissipating cold front arrives.  These would be scattered and severe, so it would be best to receive a nice rain Tuesday morning, get what we need, then stabilize the atmosphere Tuesday afternoon.

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It now looks like the hottest air of the season will move in Wednesday and Thursday before a nice cold front moves in from the northeast Friday.  This front may bring a few thunderstorms, but I would not hold my breathe.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Increasing Chances of Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have been mostly dry this month and we could use a widespread drink of water.  We now have chances of rain the next 3-5 days, with one main chance for a widespread event.

Here are some rainfall statistics.  We average about .18″ per day this time of year.  And, for the month at KCI we are about 1.50″ below average.  We are still about 5″ above average for the year as April and May were quite wet.

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Our first chance of rain is actually today as a small disturbance drifts south down I-35 from Iowa.

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If it holds together we could see some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  At the very least we will see more clouds today than in past days.  We are still going for a high of 91° as it looks like this system is weakening, but we are keeping a 10% chance for some rain between noon and 3 PM.  If we see more clouds and rain, highs will be 85-88.

This is a track of the small system.  It would arrive around 2 PM.  So, keep an eye to the sky if you are outdoors this afternoon.  Whether, we see any rain from this system or not, it does look like a dry, warm and humid evening.

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SUNDAY: This looks like a hot and humid day with highs in the low 90s.  There is a new 20% chance for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms as the cumulus clouds will build a bit more.  Again, nothing widespread.

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MONDAY: We may see a few showers and thunderstorms Monday, but again nothing widespread.  Monday evening, however, we will have our eyes on northwest Kansas as a system comes out of the Rockies.

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MONDAY NIGHT: The area of rain ad thunderstorms in northwest Kansas has a decent chance of growing into a decent sized MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) as it move east.

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TUESDAY MORNING:  It looks like this complex of rain and thunderstorms will have a decent chance of moving into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  Even if it weakens as it moves in, all locations would see a nice drink of water with .25″ to 1″ of rain likely.  Some locations could see 2″-3″.  Let’s hope we get this rain as it appears to be the best chance of a widespread event the next 6-8 days.

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Have a great weekend and keep an eye to the sky if you are out this afternoon.

Jeff

Dry Through Sunday

Good Tuesday evening,

The weather today is about as nice as it gets today with abundant sunshine, almost no wind, low humidity with temperatures around 80°.  The weather is going to change as an upper level ridge builds over the middle of the USA.  This will keep the rain away and make temperatures rise to around 90° in our area by Thursday.  Highs will be around 90° with lows around 70° through Sunday.  The humidity will be rising as well, so it is going to feel pretty sticky by Thursday.  There will be a south breeze at 10-25 mph Thursday and Friday to alleviate the steamy feel a bit.

By the time we get to Sunday, the yards and farms will need a nice drink of water.  So, do you need to drag out the sprinkler?  Well, if you notice dry spots and areas by Friday or Saturday it may be a good idea.  Also, we are expecting rain next week and we will talk about this below, and you can decide based on the rainfall forecast as we get closer to next week.

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WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK: The main jet stream will head north into Canada as a very weak southern stream forms.  This weak southern stream will have a series of disturbances tracking east out of the Rockies.  At the same time a cold front will be moving southeast.  So, these features will more than likely help to generate several chances of showers and thunderstorms next week, starting Monday or Tuesday.  Now, this being said, we could still get missed by much of the rain, if there is just one main disturbance, and it moves by in one day.  So, this rainfall set up is not set in stone.

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Have a great night and Wednesday.

Jeff