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Few Snow/Sleet Showers and 60s

Good Wednesday,

We have a few snow and sleet showers moving across the region this morning.  They will be gone by 11 am to noon.  Some locations, will be dry, some will see flurries, some will get partially dusted white and a few will get totally dusted white. Here is a picture from St. Joseph sent in by Dwayne Martz.

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WEATHER TRACK RADAR 853 am: When the band went through Lawrence, it created some snow blowing around in the road.

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THURSDAY: Our little bands of snow showers will evolve into a 6-10″ snowstorm for NYC and Boston Thursday-Friday, AMAZING!

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SNOWFALL FORECAST:  Some locations here may see .1″, maybe.  Look at New England.

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FRIDAY: Strong south winds will bring warm air rapidly back to our area.  Highs on Friday will climb to around 60°.  Saturday will see temps range from the 50s north to near 70° south depending on the location of a new front.  We may see some drizzle Saturday or rain showers Sunday.

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Crazy weather as usual.  That is what I love about KC!

Have a great day.

Jeff

Temperature Roller Coaster Ride, But Still Dry

Good Tuesday,

Colder air is pouring in as temperatures stay in the 40s with 30s across northern Missouri.  Tonight into Wednesday will see a few areas of snow affect Nebraska, Iowa to far northern Missouri.  If we see a brief snow or sleet shower Wednesday it would not surprise me, but the chance is rather low.  The cold air hangs in there through Thursday night, then it gets blasted away.  Now, we have all of these weather changes, but little to no precipitation.

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Click on the video below for an in depth look at this crazy weather.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

50s, 60s, 10s, 30s, Chance of Snow

Good Sunday,

The next 7 days will include all kinds of weather with mild temperatures, a cold blast, a chance of drizzle and a chance of snow.  Today, will be calm with abundant sunshine, highs around 50° and a light wind, a “Super Sunday.”  Tomorrow will be cloudy with some fog and a chance of drizzle as a warm front approaches.  Highs will be in the 50s.

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Click on the video below for an in depth look at this crazy weather.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Up and Down and All Around

Good Saturday,

We started the weekend with full sunshine, but a deck of clouds raced in and the rest of the morning will be cloudy.  The sun will return this afternoon.  The wind will be gusting to 35-40 mph, so it will be rather annoying as highs reach the 40s.  Tonight the wind will come back down as lows drop to around 30°.  This will set us up for a literally and figuratively super Sunday as highs climb to around 50° with sunshine and a light wind.

SATURDAY MORNING SUNRISE

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Click on the video below for an in depth look at this roller coaster ride of temperatures.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Roller Coaster Ride and Weekend System

Good Tuesday,

Colder air is continuing to filter south and so today was about 10 degrees colder than Monday and Wednesday will be 10 degrees colder than today.  This is going to be a dry transition, but there is a system to watch for the weekend.

WEDNESDAY: Highs will be in the low 40s as Arctic air spills into the USA.  We will have lots of clouds.

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THURSDAY: This will be a day colder then Wednesday as highs reach the low 30s.  It will be dry, but there will be periods of clouds.  The Arctic air is firmly in the northern Plains.

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Then, we turn our attention to a strong storm system in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  This storm system will head east and affect us Saturday in a ridiculously weakened state.  Look at this storm system!

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This storm will take a track practically straight west to east, arriving here by Saturday.

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The storm will be a shadow of its former self as it moves in.  Below we have the latest thinking on this storm system.

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FRIDAY: There will be a small lead system that brings some snow to Wyoming and Nebraska.  It will fall apart before it has a chance to affect our region.

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SATURDAY: The storm system will arrive with some light rain developing.  A light mix of rain, freezing rain and snow is possible in northern Missouri as temperatures rise.  We will be in the mid 30s by noon.

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SATURDAY EVENING: The storm quickly moves off as we warm to the 40s.  Right now it looks like total rainfall will be trace-.10″.

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Warmer air will be surging in and Sunday will see highs in the 40s with highs back to the 50s for Monday and Tuesday.  It might even reach 60°.  Then, a new storm system moves by Tuesday (some rain possible) and it looks like this will be followed by an Arctic blast.  A third system may bring some snow next Wednesday or Thursday.  So, we are in for a roller coaster ride.

Have a great night and rest of your week.

Jeff

Cooler Days Ahead

Good Monday,

We forecast 60° today and that is what our unofficial high has reached.  A weak cold front will drift by tonight with a new front moving by, mid week, so we will be experiencing a gradual cool down through the week.  This will be a dry transition to cooler weather.  Then, this weekend there is a system to watch, and below we have our latest thinking.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES:

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TUESDAY: One cold front moves through tonight as the next one approaches Tuesday.  In between the two fronts, we will see highs in the low 50s with a light wind and a mostly sunny sky, so another nice day is in store for Tuesday.

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WEDNESDAY: The cooling trend continues as highs drop to the low 40s after lows in the 20s.

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THURSDAY: The colder air will continue to filter south, but the Arctic air will likely stay just to the north.  We will have to watch this closely as it will be just two states away.

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FRIDAY-SATURDAY: We will be tracking a weak storm system as the cold air is in place.  The new 18Z GFS has no storm system as it races by before it gets its act together.  However, we still have a 30% chance that this system brings some rain or snow.  Is the 18Z a viable solution?  Yes, it could wait to get its act together before it brings us any precipitation.  As usual we will know more as we get closer to the weekend.

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Have a great night and Tuesday.

Jeff

 

 

The First Week of February

Good Sunday,

January is about to wrap up and we have had just 10 days with below average temperatures.  Rainfall is above average, but that occurred mostly in two days, the 15th and 16th.  So, while it is not bone dry, it is drying out.  We are going to end the month with highs around 60° Monday and in the low 50s Tuesday.   Today we will have highs in the 40s with periods of clouds and perhaps some sprinkles and flurries.  As we look ahead to the first week of February, colder air will head south and we have the chance of some kind of a winter system for Super Bowl weekend.

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this weather pattern.

Have a great week ahead.

Jeff

Mostly Quiet Weather Pattern

Good Saturday,

This weekend we will be in northwest flow which will have a series of fast-moving, small and weak disturbances embedded in the flow.  This means we will have lots of clouds this weekend with some sun from time to time (decent sun this morning) and each time a disturbance goes by we may see a snowflake or rain drop.  There is nothing to cause any hazardous road conditions.   Highs this weekend will be in the 40s with lows tonight around 30.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the weather pattern as we go into February.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

The Winter Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny. High: 43°
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy. High:  41°
  • Sunday:  Mostly cloudy early with a snow flurry possible, then sunny and warmer. High:  44°
  • Monday: Sunny, breezy and much warmer. High:  55°

Will this be Kansas City’s 3rd straight winter with below to way below average snowfall?

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Here in Kansas City we are sitting at 4.5″ of snow as the third straight January comes to an end with less than 3″ of snow this month. Take a look at the month by month totals from the past two winters:

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What is going on? The Ridge! As the new LRC set up in the fall we experienced the long term long-wave ridge that formed over the middle of North America. By early to mid November I realized that this ridge was one of the strongest I had ever seen, but it was still a subtle feature and something that is hard to explain. There are many symptoms of this ridge and I still have to do more analysis to back up what I am trying to explain here. How many major winter storm systems have there really been across the United States. Let’s take out Lake Effect snow storms. Let’s take out mountain snows. How many have there really been? A 6 to 10 inch snow near the South Dakota border in another winter would have been a 22″ snow. The ridge is showing itself more than you know.

Here is what I wrote in November. We are bringing you this breakthrough technology and sharing it with our members at Weather2020.com.  Our team at KSHB and Weather2020 have increasingly become more accurate over the past two decades.  For my winter snowfall prediction to verify this winter, we will need ten more inches of snow. These next three slides are from the winter forecast:

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If you read these slides closely it really showcases what has continued to happen during the winter.

  • On the second slide I wrote, in referring to the Arctic Oscillation: “If the index doesn’t dip deeper into negative territory, then the number of stormy and very cold days will be quite limited”. The ridge is a bigger factor when it is combined with an AO positive. We have had that first 10-14 day cold spell. There were a couple much shorter ones. Now, will there be one more 10-14 day stretch in February? We will be moving into that part of the cycling pattern in the next three weeks.
  • On the first slide I wrote: “On these maps you can see various forms of the Pacific storm systems, and the ridges that developed over the middle and western parts of North America. These are the biggest reason for the early season warmth and it will be a big part of this years cycling pattern.” This part of the pattern has quite obviously influenced January, as forecasted.
  • On the third slide I wrote: “Arctic air masses formed on the other side of the Northern Hemisphere (Siberia south through Asia and northern Europe) in this early part of the pattern. This will likely happen again with each of these set-ups. Will it form on the North American side of the Northern Hemisphere in these winter cycles? It likely will and it is something we will be monitoring closely. This is also an indicator of the development of a negative AO and NAO.” This is something to monitor closely in the next seven days. One of those big ridges will form. It is right on the LRC schedule. How will it influence the development of the Arctic air mass is one question, and how strong will the Pacific Storm Generating Machine be in this third cycle is another question?

These are three of the big take aways from how the pattern set up during the critical LRC development period in the first cycle of this years pattern. Take a look at the Arctic Oscillation Index as of today:

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Once again, if this index does not dip deeper into negative territory, then we can expect to continue to experience what we have experienced this winter and the chance of getting up to ten inches of snow this winter will be a struggle. There is no sign yet of this dipping into that deeper negative area. The middle of February will provide the best chance of this happening.
We are proud to be the official meteorologist of the Kansas City Royals. One year ago today the Royals were defending World Champions. We are now one year removed from this as the Chicago Cubs won it this past year. The Royals had to deal with a tragedy this past week with the death of Yordano Ventura, their young star that could have been a true superstar, but we will never know. What will happen in 2017? Well, we will find out in the next few months. I will be signing books of “It’s A Sunny Life” out at this event. Come on by and say hello if you have a chance. Bring the family. This is really a great event!

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Thank you for reading todays blog. We hope to see you at Fan Fest this weekend!  Sunny and I will be there broadcasting from 3:30 PM through 7:30 PM.

Gary

Snowflakes and Sunshine

Good Thursday,

We have flurries in the area and they will be around much of today.  Then, Friday we finally get to see the sun followed by 2-3 small weekend systems.  These systems will bring periods of clouds and perhaps some flurries, snow or even rain showers.  We then have a brief warm up next week before Arctic air returns and the chances for winter precipitation.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this roller coaster ride.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff