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More Chances of Snow

Good Sunday bloggers,

It is another Sunday and it’s another Sunday with snow. Today, however, is a completely different animal than last week. A strong storm that ripped out into the Plains Friday, producing severe weather from Oklahoma to Illinois and a snowstorm in Nebraska and northwest Iowa is now weakening and headed to the Great Lakes. Disturbances are rotating around the system and one this morning is bringing snow to south KC and another disturbance will affect, mostly northern Missouri tonight. Temperatures this morning were above freezing in most locations and this is huge in keeping roads damp to wet and not icy. Tonight may be different.

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TODAY AND TONIGHT: The morning band of snow south of the river will fall apart by 10 AM-Noon. The rest of the day will be cloudy, windy and cold with flurries. Then, tonight a new area of snow will likely cross northern Missouri. It may extend south to I-70. Temperatures will be dropping into the 20s, so where the band of snow tracks a dusting to 1/2″ is possible with slick spots likely. Even if most of the snow accumulates on the grass, any paved surfaces that are wet/damp will turn to black ice.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Here is our snowfall forecast for tonight. The best chance of accumulation is across northern Missouri, but the I-70 corridor is not immune from slick spots.

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MONDAY: It will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs around 30°. Slick spots are possible during the morning.

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There are two systems to track during the next week. They are timed for Thursday and Friday-Saturday.

The first system for Thursday is along a cold front and does not look like a big issue a this time. We could see a period of rain and snow with minor accumulation. There could be slick spots and it is something to watch.

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The second system has our attention. This looks like a big winter storm. When we were tracking the blizzard last week, the question was where will it track? If it tracked farther south, then KC gets more into the blizzard.  And, as we know, it did. This storm has the same track issue, but in order for our area to get snow, the storm has to track farther north. We have data from every model and each run of every model showing a different track. We will follow this through the week.

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We are still at 7.8″ of snow for the season and have exceeded the totals from the last three years. We WILL add more to this total in December.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Strong Plains Storm System

Good Saturday bloggers,

One of the wilder Novembers is over and since this is the first of December, it is November statistics day.

The average temperature was 35.6°, which was 8 degrees below average. This is the coldest November ever recorded (35.9° 1976, 36.5°, 2000) and we had 7.6″ of snow which is the second snowiest November ever recorded.  WOW! We ended up below average on rainfall, but it would have been above average if this current storm system was 12 hours faster.

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What is next? We have a strong storm system in the Plains and this will influence our weather through Monday. We will see more rain and possibly a minor accumulation of snow, but we are missing the snowstorm.

Here is radar from early Saturday morning.  We are seeing another classic storm system with the comma head across Nebraska and northern Kansas. The center of the upper level storm is moving north through northeast Kansas. Last Sunday we were in the comma head and we had a blizzard. The comma head of this storm will stay north and a major snowstorm is getting its act together across Nebraska and eventually in to Iowa. We are in the dry slot of the storm where it is cloudy, breezy and mild along with a few rain showers. The wrap around is in central Kansas and that will sweep in this afternoon.

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SATURDAY NOON: The wrap around will be on the way with areas of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperatures will range from the 30s and 40s north to 50s south.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON: It will be breezy with scattered rain, some moderate to heavy downpours. Temperatures will begin to drift down to the 40s, 30s north.

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SATURDAY EVENING: It will be windy and cold with scattered rain showers. Temperatures will be above freezing from Maryville to Pleasanton, so roads will be wet to damp. The colder air will be entering from the southwest as a strong surface low tracks to the north.

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be windy and cold with northwest winds gusting 30-35 mph. Temperatures will be around 32° with flurries possible. Roads will be damp to wet.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs in the 30s. Flurries are possible.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: The strong storm system will move into the Great Lakes and one last disturbance will rotate south around it bringing us scattered snow showers. Temperatures will drop just below freezing and so, we could see some minor accumulation on grassy surfaces. If there is enough snow, we could have some slick spots on roads by Monday morning.

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MONDAY MORNING: Any snow will be over with perhaps a few flurries. Temperatures will drop to the mid 20s and this is why we could have slick spots if there is enough water on the roads. That will depend on how much snow occurs Sunday night.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: We may see a dusting to 1/2″ Sunday night, mainly on grassy surfaces. 6″-12″ of snow is likely across Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Omaha, on this model, has around 1″ of snow. But, some data has them seeing over 5″ of snow as they are near the edge of the snowstorm.  It is a tough forecast in Omaha.

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We may not see the sun until Wednesday and our next chance of a winter storm is next weekend.

Have a great this weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

 

Winter Storm & Tornado Risk On The Last Day Of November

Good morning bloggers,

There is a winter storm forming today and it has a strong spring component to the system.  In today’s blog we will look at today’s set up and also look ahead to one week from now.  Let’s begin with the watches and warnings around the nation this morning:

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There are winter storm warnings over parts of Nebraska and South Dakota; Dense Fog Advisories in the gray; and wind advisories over southwest Texas and New Mexico.  A major storm is developing today and this storm is caught is a blocked up pattern.  There is a tornado risk as well.  Here is the Severe Weather Tornado Outlook from the SPC:

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The target area is located over far southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas and adjacent areas of Texas and Louisiana.  High levels of low level fuel in the form of high dew points is surging into this region this morning, and as this storm develops today, at the surface and aloft, severe thunderstorms are expected to form in this region.

Dew Points:

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2Take a look at todays 6 PM surface forecast.  I didn’t plot this map so you can see how it looks without any plotted surface boundaries.  A strong low pressure systems is going to form over the southwestern plains today near the western Oklahoma Panhandle.  Can you see the kinks in the isobars (the lines of equal pressure), the black lines?  The kinks form a surface boundary, and this one is a warm front. There are other features as well.  And, you can see the south Gulf of Mexico flow from deep down into the tropics where the high dew points are being pulled from.  This set up will help begin forming the heavy areas of snow, and the potential severe weather later today down south. It will also produce a chance of thunderstorms here in Kansas City.

Okay, here is the plotted surface map:

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This is really a rather fascinating and unique surface set up.  Kansas City will be north of the warm front, and there will still be a surge of higher dew points northward and it will lead to a chance of thunderstorms tonight:

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The dotted lines show the convective activity predicted. We may see some lightning and hear some thunder in KC tonight.  And, we will potentially see some snowflakes by the end of the weekend as well.  What a couple of months we have just had!

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That is a lot of snow just northwest of Omaha and Des Moines.  And, then we have this to track in about a week. This is the FV3-GFS model that came out overnight. This model and all of the other models are all over the place on this end of next week storm system.  Some models take it way south, and others take it farther north. There is no consistency at the moment.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy with a chance of rain by evening.  High: 45°
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.  The chance of rain is 100%.  Temperatures rising a few degrees more, possibly up into the lower 50s.
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with morning showers likely, then a west wind shift.
  • Sunday-Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers, and a minor accumulation of snow possible mainly north of KC.  Windy and turning colder.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

A Storm Hits West Coast & Approaches The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

Los Angeles is getting some heavy rain today, and this is a good sign for their winter. It is a functional storm that is hitting them now.  If it was going to be an extremely dry winter out there, they would not be getting hit by a storm of this strength.  Here are the impacts and forecast from the NWS in Oxnard, CA:

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This storm heading into California is centered north of San Francisco this morning, and the second system is organizing way offshore.  These two systems are also going to have impacts on other parts of the United States including the KC region:

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3This first storm is going to rip out into the plains on Friday into early Saturday, with the second one coming  into the west coast.  There is a split flow over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  A northern stream is located over the northern territories of Canada, if you look closely. And, the southern stream is quite active with our storm systems cycling through this southern branch.  The first system will be approaching the plains Friday and spinning into an upper level low over northern Kansas and Nebraska, possibly Iowa and Missouri Friday night and Saturday.  What happens with the strength and development of this first storm will have impacts on how the second storm affects our region.  The models have all had some strength of snowfall in our region even in KC by Sunday night or Monday with amounts varying from a few flakes on some models to 8″ of snow on others (Canadian Model).  Now, the solutions should come more in line today, so I am waiting on seeing how these trend as confidence is quite low for our area at the moment.

Let’s concentrate on this first storm:

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A strong surface low will be moving out into the plains on Saturday morning.  Imagine this storm in the spring;  there would be a significant severe weather risk.  Oh, wait a second, take a look at this December risk on the day 2 outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center):

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Dew points will be surging north.  And, I am talking high dew points, lots of moisture for this time of the year:

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This GFS model dew point projection shows 50°+ dew points may make it as far north as KC early Saturday morning. That would push temperatures up into the 50s later tomorrow night, and there is a chance of thunderstorms near Kansas City as well.

A lot to discuss today in this rather strange and interesting weather pattern.  Remember, every LRC is unique, and we are experiencing a weather pattern that has never happened before. Now, let’s see how this all lines up.

Sporting KC has a big playoff game out at Children’s Mercy Park tonight.  Go Sporting KC!  Have a great day everyone, and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Sunny, my dog, is shaking her head, and I am taking her to the vet this morning, so I will check in soon.

Gary

The Weather Team Winter Predictions

Good morning bloggers,

It has been one of the coldest Novembers on record, and we are currently 8.4 degrees below average this month.  Later this week we will go into more detail of what is happening with this cycling pattern according to the LRC.  Last night, our weather special aired on 41Action News. Here is the link to the special:  Winter Weather Special and here are the snowfall totals forecast from our weather team.  Remember, we taped the show two weeks ago before this latest big storm, the second largest November storm ever recorded in KC, happened:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with some breaks of sunshine later. Light winds with a high of 38°
  • Tonight:  Dense fog developing in spots with light winds.  Low:  29°
  • Thursday:  Possibly some dense fog, then cloudy.  High:  37°
  • Friday:  Increasing chance of rain.  High: 42°

We are tracking two storm systems between Friday and Monday. Let’s go through them.

THURSDAY MORNING: We will see some snow melt today, which will throw moisture into the air. Then, tonight there will be light winds and this could lead to fog. If high clouds move in tonight, then this will interrupt the fog forming process as a clear sky will lead to maximum cooling and condensing. Whether the fog is thick or not, there will be black ice as water from melting today will refreeze tonight.  So, use caution.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON: If the fog is not too thick, then there may be some peeks of sun before thicker low clouds enter from the south. Drizzle is possible to the south and a few sprinkles/ice pellets are possible to the north as weak disturbances race by.

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FRIDAY: This looks like a cloudy and breezy day along with a chance of drizzle. Lows will be around 32°, so some new black ice is possible. Highs will rise to near 40° as our first storm system approaches.

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FRIDAY NIGHT: A round of moderate to heavy rain is likely, possibly a thunderstorm, with amounts .25″ to 1″. Temperatures will be in the 40s and this will wash off the salt and chemicals. It will also be interesting to see it fall on top of the snow.  There will still be plenty of snow left by Friday night, especially in locations that don’t see sunlight.

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SATURDAY: The first storm will track to the north and the heavier rain will end early in the morning. We may see lingering showers and drizzle all day on the back side with temperatures 35°-40°.  A snowstorm is likely for Nebraska and Iowa. The first storm will play a role in the fate of the second storm.  If the first one becomes to big, it will absorb the second one and we will not have much on Monday from storm system #2.  If the first storm moves along and stays separate from the second one, then Monday will be quite interesting.

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Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary and Jeff

Winter Weather Special Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

Our winter weather special is on tonight at 6:30 PM on 41 Action News.  There are some special segments about what the animals at the Kansas City zoo do in the cold weather; we go to Arrowhead stadium as they “may” be playing two home playoff games, so how do they remove all that snow if a storm hits in January; and our entire weather team chimes in on their winter predictions.  Now, here is an important note. We recorded this special two weeks ago, so our forecasts came out before this recent storm hit.  It will be interesting for myself to watch this from that perspective.  We have already exceeded the past three winters totals.  Wow!

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The Weather Pattern:

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The weather pattern is quite fascinating this morning.  Okay, I am always fascinated by the cycling pattern as described by the LRC.  Two storm systems are lining up and developing in the next few days.  The first storm will blast into the west coast.  The jet stream continues to strengthen as winter is approaching. The jet stream is caused by the “Thermal Wind” which is not really a wind at all.  The thermal wind is really not a wind at all, and more of a description of a change of wind with height.  It is the mechanism that forces the strengthening of the jet stream and this is located at around 30,o0o feet to 40,000 feet above us.  It is actually created and caused by temperature contrast, so when winter approaches and we move into the end of January around a month later, the temperature contrast is the strongest where it can be 50 below zero near the North Pole and still 90 degrees over Mexico. This is a 140° contrast, while at its weakest point in early August, it may be 30 degrees at the North Pole and 100 degrees over Mexico, or half the strength at 70° contrast, and thus a weaker Thermal Wind.  Oh my, I am getting depressed today.

Well, as you look above, you can see the influence from some blocking aloft.  The High, with the red arrows showing the circulation, is a block that formed (AO and NAO went negative recently). It is not that strong.  In future LRC cycles it may be stronger.  It still has had an influence on our weather pattern, and may be the reason why this recent snowstorm tracked a bit farther south.  It was likely an important factor.  And, there is a strengthening series of two storms for us to track as they intensify west of California (great and bad news for that fire devastated region as there may be some mudslides and flooding).  They need the rain out there, as it will green up the hills and reduce fire danger during the winter months, unless it dries out again?  I think the rain will be heavy enough to turn it green in the fire danger regions.

2What happens next will be interesting for the KC region and surrounding regions.  The first storm is likely going to bring mostly rain to our area, with some snow possible not that far away in Nebraska and Iowa.  The second system may bring KC our next snow as early as Monday. You can see these two systems on this map on the left.  The jet stream is strong and far to the south, likely in response to the little blocking we had.  Dew points will likely rise as Friday nights storm approaches. This should help warm Kansas City into the 40s Friday evening with a good chance of rain. And, then we will monitor the track of this first storm as it moves by, and gets kicked east by the second system.

Take a look at what the second system produced on last nights model run:

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Yes, that is snow, and heavy snow, and there are other solutions ranging from flurries to a few inches next Monday.  We are usually thinking this will be our first chance of an inch of snow, and not this year! Here we go already, bloggers. Let’s see how these systems line up today.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experiencing featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions by going to the Weather2020 blog and joining in our discussion.  Have a great day. There are many slick spots out there, so give yourself some extra time!

Gary

A Cold & Slick Monday

Good morning bloggers,

It is rather dangerous and slick out there for a few more hours. The sun will begin working on melting some of the ice sheet that developed on many roads around Kansas City. The rain and snow that melted as the snow began ended up creating ice sheets in most areas, so it is quite dangerous, very slick out there this morning.  There have been many crashes, and some of the more dangerous spots may be around driveways and sidewalks where slipping is possible if you are not really careful.  So, provide yourself with a lot of extra time this morning. We have hundreds of closings after our record snowfall yesterday.

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The 5.8″ that fell at KCI Airport is the second largest November snowstorm ever recorded (9.0″ in 1923), making this the second snowiest November ever, and we have now exceeded all of last years total, all of two years ago total, and all of three years ago total for the entire winter snow season (October-April).  Wow!  I measured 5.5″ on the Plaza before the snow was over, so we likely had close to 6″ of snow.  Blue Springs and Lee’s Summit got into a heavier band just east of KSHB and we have reports of 8.1″ in these cities.  Overland Park had 4.1″, and other amounts reached 10″ near Maryville and Stewartsville up north.  Wow again!

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So, what is next? This is the storm that has my attention for next weekend. Some of the models have heavy snow near or just north of KC Saturday into Sunday morning. This is the European Model that was the most consistent with yesterdays storm, and below you can see that it ends as snow on Sunday morning.  Well, it is still five days away, so hang on, here we go again, and it is still only November!

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Be careful out there this morning.  As I said, the sun will work on the roads soon.  Conditions will improve gradually.  Have a great day and join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

The Winter Storm Has Started In KC

Good afternoon bloggers,

The winter storm has started. And, what a November storm it is; wow!  Take a look at this:

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It was 58 degress in St. Louis while we were in a developing snowstorm. Just incredible, as we are about to end the almost five year streak of no storms reaching 3″.   And, now temperatures are dropping and I found the intensifying upper low on radar.  It is in perfect position to bring KC 4 to 8 inches of snow. Let’s keep tracking it, and let’s share in this weather experience on the Weather2020 blog featuring the LRC.

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Gary

First Blizzard Warning Since January 31, 2011

Good Sunday,

Wow! Well, the storm has trended far enough south to bring blizzard conditions to the I-70 corridor. Let’s put this in perspective. It has been 1755 days since our last 3″ snowstorm and our last Blizzard Warning was January 31, 2011. The snowiest November ever was 9.1″ in 1923 that came in one storm. We are at 1.8″,so far, this November.

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Here is the time line. The snow will begin in KC from west to east between 10 AM and noon. Roads will become wet then slick. A blizzard will be ongoing northwest of KC by 11 AM. The main part of the blizzard for KC will be noon to 6 PM with snowfall rates 1″-2″ per hour and wind gusts 35-45 mph from the north. The snow ends rapidly from west to east 6-9 PM with blowing snow ending around midnight.

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Here is the 915 AM radar and powercast is doing pretty well.

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10 AM SUNDAY: There will be a wide range of weather conditions from northwest to southeast. A blizzard will be intensifying to the northwest with cloudy and 50° degree weather from Pleasanton to Clinton. The snow/mix will be increasing in KC from west to east.

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NOON SUNDAY: Snow and blizzard conditions will be increasing from northwest to southeast. Conditions will be deteriorating in KC. It will still be in the 50s with some rain in Clinton, MO.

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NOON TO 3 PM: This is the main part of the blizzard for KC with snow falling at the rate of 1″-2″ per hour, north winds gusting to 45 mph and temperatures down to the 20s. We may even have a thundersnow. Travel is not recommended. Clinton will be dropping to the low 30s and they will start seeing snow.

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3 PM TO 6 PM: The snow will end from west to east with the blizzard conditions in KC winding down after 4-5 PM. Roads will be a mess with blowing and drifting snow ongoing. The blowing and drifting will mostly end by midnight.

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7 AM MONDAY: The storm will be exiting Chicago while we are clear with lows around 10°. The wind will be down to 10-20 mph and there will be little blowing and drifting.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Look at the heavy band from central Kansas to the Great Lakes. The storm is tracking far enough south to bring the blizzard conditions to the I-70 corridor.

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The range across the region will be around 14″ in northwest Missouri to under 1″ around Pleasanton. KC is in the 4″-10″ zone.

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4″-7″ of snow is likely south of I-70 in the KC area with 2″-4″ from Louisburg to Warrensburg.

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North of I-70 in the KC area we are looking at 6″-10″ with 10″-12″ just north of that.

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Stay safe and have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Blizzard Warning For Kansas City

Good morning bloggers,

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A Blizzard Warning has been put into effect over parts of northern Kansas and Missouri.  It goes into effect Sunday afternoon.  A Major Winter Storm is developing and targeting the Kansas City viewing area.  There are still a few uncertainties as we know there will still be a cut off line where there will be little accumulation south of this line.  The models have been narrowing in on solutions that have shifted this line farther south away from KC.  We are thinking that 3 to 6 inches will be wide spread over the KC metro with 6 to 12 inches farther north. There may even be a few spots with more than a foot.  It has been a very long time since Kansas City even had 3″ in a storm, and this streak is going to end on Sunday:

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It has been 1,755 days since our last 3 inch snowfall in one storm, a streak nearly 5 years long.  Well, this will end. Why? Just look at this storm:

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The storm is being modeled to intensify during the day and track south of KC. This is of extreme importance.  The center of that circle, the 540 (5,400 meters above the surface) line is down near Pleasanton, KS at 1 PM Sunday according to this model.  Along and north of the center of this upper lows path is where the heaviest snow will be located.  If this storm forms a well defined comma head, then an additional 2 to 3 inches will be possible in areas near KC as the storm begins moving away. The back edge will be rotating overhead and heavy snow is often the result in these comma heads.  Take a look at the snow generating machine that most models are predicting to track perfectly for these heavy snow bands to from near KC. Areas north of I-70 to the Iowa and Nebraska borders are still the target for the heaviest accumulation.

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This map above shows the 850 mb flow with a perfect track of this very strong system. The 850 mb low is predicted to be just southeast of KC at noon today. This is when the cold air will be blasting in with temperatures dropping into the 20s.  The initial snow and rain will not accumulate, and shortly thereafter, as temperatures drop, the snow will be effectively accumulating with snowfall rates of 2″ per hour.  The solid blue line is the 32°F line.

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After the 10 PM newscast, this map actually updated and that line near the south side of the city, shifted all the way down to Paola.  I added in what I believe will end up verifying by 8 PM tonight.  This includes 4-8 inches across most of the KC metro area.  We will learn a lot more in the morning.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation!

Gary