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Great Summer Weather

Good Saturday,

We are in for some great weather this weekend as highs reach the 80s along with abundant sunshine and lower humidity.  We had a cold front go through Friday, but the rain did what so many events have done for the last month, weaken and/or fall apart as it moved through.  So, we are left still needing rain.  Here are some rainfall statistics around the city for the last month.

KCI:

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LEE’S SUMMIT:

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OVERLAND PARK:

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All locations are dry across the metro, but Johnson county is the bulls eye of dry with many locations seeing less than 1″ of rain since July 13th.  So, there is a wet system that will affect Missouri the next 3 days, but western Missouri is not one of the locaions.  The next chance of rain for western Missouri is in about a week.  At least temperatures will be moderate with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.  Let’s take a look at this wet system.

The system has been producing flooding across Louisiana.  It will begin it’s trek north into southern Missouri Sunday, exiting Tuesday.

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RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-TUESDAY: It is the tale of two states.  We will see no rain with locations along and south of I-44 possible seeing as much as 10″!  It is too bad we cannot take some of that rain and push it west.

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Enjoy the great weather.

Jeff

Searching for Widespread Rain

Good evening,

It is another day and another day where widespread rain is hard to come by.   We had a few thunderstorms Tuesday evening north of the “K”, and today we have a few thunderstorms around Smithville.  So, there are some lucky yards and farms, but rainfall coverage is low. There will be a few thunderstorms around tonight, but again coverage is low.

Here is a radar image from 350 PM Wednesday.  The only thunderstorm in the metro area is around Smithville.

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WEDNESDAY EVENING RADAR: There are three areas of thunderstorms in the region.  One is across northeast Missouri and has no chance of affecting our weather.  There is the small area of thunderstorms around Smithville.  This will likely stay a small area and head north.  The third area is located over southeast Kansas which is in association with the disturbance we were looking at yesterday in the Texas panhandle.  This area has a chance of moving in this evening, so we have the chance of a few thunderstorms, but the chance of widespread rain is low.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: This is our best chance of a widespread rain during the next 5-7 days as a cold front moves through.  This front will be associated with a disturbance coming in from the southwest.  However, the latest data is trending towards the band of rain and thunderstorms to be going through a transition as it moves by.  So, the best rain would fall northwest and southeast of our area.  It is really incredible what is going on.  Now that being said, this is not set in stone, but do not hold your breath for a widespread rain.  Let’s hope the latest data is wrong.  If this rain does not come through we will have a better chance August 20-31 as next week looks mostly dry.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

Chance of Rain Wednesday?

Good evening,

4:45 PM UPDATE:

There is a weak boundary drifting south across KC.  And one thunderstorm has formed just north of the “K”.  It is drifting east.  The next few hours an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible on that boundary as it drifts south into the south side of KC.

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There are parts of the KC metro that have not seen a decent rain event since July 13th, and one of them is Overland Park,  There have been countless areas of thunderstorms during the last three weeks that have either missed Johnson county by one county or dissipated before it arrives, or weakens considerably as it moves across the county.  So, this is why the rain statistics below are the way they are.

There have been about 5 days of measurable rain with total amounts under .50″.  Average for the time period July 14-August 9 is 3.24″.

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Well ,there is a chance of rain Wednesday as a disturbance comes in from the southwest monsoon.  The flow aloft is from southwest to northeast and this is pulling from the southwest monsoon, where there are disturbance meandering about.

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Here is a close up satellite picture of a disturbance that emanated from the southwest monsoon yesterday that is now located over the Texas panhandle.  It is slowly heading this way and some computer data has this moving through Wednesday with more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It is unlikely we will see a widespread event, but there could very well be downpours in the area.  It could affect most of Wednesday.  There is more moisture behind this that could bring some rain Wednesday night.

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FRIDAY: If the rain from the disturbance misses your yard or farm, there is another chance Friday as a cold front arrives and a new southwest monsoon disturbance moves by.  Hopefully, you will see the rain you need by Friday as it looks dry for 5-7 days after the Friday event.

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Have a good night.

Jeff

Warming Trend

Good evening,

There are still locations in Johnson and Wyandotte county that are looking for their first decent rain event since July 13th.  Last night a large area of rain and thunderstorms tracked to the south, clipping southern Johnson county.  The rest of Monday has looked like rain, but very little has occurred.  There are a few showers south of the KC metro and a few of these may be around this evening.  These locations had a nice downpour early Monday.

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TUESDAY: A warm front that has been to our south and generating some large areas of rain and thunderstorms will be moving through Tuesday.  However, there is not much upper level energy and no decent disturbances aloft, so the coverage of thunderstorms with this front appears low tonight into Tuesday.  Of course this happens, because that means KC would be in line for a nice rain event.  It is what it is and we will still be waiting for a decent rain event.  Wednesday and Thursday are looking mostly dry, hot and humid with highs 90°-95°.

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JAVIER: There is a tropical storm affecting Baja the next few days with mostly heavy rain.  Some of this moisture may get siphoned northeast into the Plains Friday-Saturday as a cold front moves southeast.  So, maybe this will be the moment when the dry areas get a decent rain.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Sunday Update

Good Sunday,

Well here comes some rain. This area of rain and thunderstorms is trying to do what its predecessors have been doing, and that is fall apart as it approaches.  Now, that being said, this cluster of rain and thunderstorms will hold together long enough to bring most locations at least .10″ to 1.00″ of rain.  Remember, there are locations across Wyandotte, Johnson and northern Miami county that have not seen a widespread rain since July 13th.  Today appears to be that day, but the amounts may be a bit lower than is needed.

SUNDAY 7 AM:  Here is the state of the area of rain and thunderstorms.  It is breaking apart, but it is associated with a disturbance that should keep some of the rain alive into the afternoon.

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SUNDAY 7 AM: Here is a close up version of the radar.  The heavy downpours are trying to head into the driest areas.  Let’s hope nothing goes wrong again.

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TONIGHT-MONDAY: After this area of rain moves by, there will be a warm front across northern Oklahoma.  New thunderstorms will likely form down there.  Some will try to drift north into our area later tonight into Monday morning.

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Have a great day.

Jeff

 

Small rain chance for some, heat break for all

Not quite what we’d expect for the first weekend of August! Highs are struggling to reach the lower 80s and we have a chance for rain. Keep in mind that August is usually one of our drier months.
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As of this afternoon, we’ve had only a little bit of rain fall in the collection bucket up at KCI.
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So how are things looking to playout tonight? Well, it’s an “if-then” situation. *If the rain and storms that are developing now in Eastern Colorado can hold on as they travel across Kansas tonight, *then we have a good shot at rain on Sunday in the Metro. However, *if the rain/storms that are expected to move across the Sunflower state run out of gas and fall apart on our doorstep, *then the odds of rain are looking slim for KC and the greater viewing area.
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I go into more detail on that and what the models are showing with my video blog:

Plus, we talk about the the temperatures. What a welcome break from the heat! Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today. We look to get a repeat on Sunday.

Have you seen the Olympics yet? USA already taking home some golden hardware! I still think it’s funny we are having the Summer Olympics in a place where it’s technically winter! Now that said, Rio is somewhat like Miami. They get a warm fetch of air of the Southern Atlantic Ocean, which helps keep the temperatures pretty comfortable.
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The forecast for tonight in Rio is rather pleasant:
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Remember, due to the Olympics, our 10p newscast is pushed back to 11p for the next two weeks. And, that’s *if they don’t run a little long, forcing us to go on a little later. Hopefully you can stay up to watch!

And for our boys in Blue, it should be a great night for baseball. Upper 70s, dry, and a wind blowing in. Now all we need is a “W”. Let’s Go Royals!
-JD

A Few Spots Still Waiting for Rain

Good Saturday,

We have been in an active August pattern with areas of rain and thunderstorms in the area every day.  95% of the locations have received a good drink of water (1″-3″ of rain), some too much.  The 5% that are still waiting happens to include part of the KC metro, Johnson county.  Here is the radar rainfall estimate since July 31st.

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These areas have seen too much rain with 8″-15″ amounts from Bethany to Carrollton and Marshall.  Most of this rain occurred last Monday morning.

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Seeing the dry areas is really hard to believe, since there has been rain around every day for a week.  There are parts of Johnson county to Ottawa, Kansas that have seen practically no rain this month, and this actually goes back to July 13th.

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SATURDAY MORNING: Here is another area of rain that tracked across southern Kansas to northeast Oklahoma, not even close to the dry areas.

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SUNDAY: So, we have a rain chance Sunday morning, but it looks like it will mostly fall apart before reaching the state line.  However, we need to watch this as it could hold together long enough to bring some rain to Johnson county.

 

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MONDAY: This is the best chance to finally bring a decent event to the locations still waiting for rain.  This is all being caused by a slow moving warm front.  If this does not pan out there is another chance Tuesday morning as the warm front drifts slowly by.  There are more rain chances Wednesday into Thursday as a disturbance from the southwest monsoon heads northeast.  Then, next weekend a new front and series of disturbances from the Rockies bring more rain chances, so it is a matter of time before the 5% dry areas get the needed rainfall, but the yards and farms are tired of waiting.

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Have a great weekend

Jeff

Could Have Been Hotter, Weekend Change

Good evening,

This has been an odd week of weather as the heat has been held up to the west.  Monday morning we had a warm front approaching, and as it did a large cluster of thunderstorms formed from eastern Iowa to central/western Missouri.  This area of rain and thunderstorms backed west to the state line and sent some major rain cooled air our way along with keeping clouds around much of the day.  Highs were in the mid 80s.  This, then kept the warm front to our southwest for Tuesday and allowed a new area of thunderstorms to form from southeast Nebraska to central and eastern Missouri aided by a disturbance tracking southeast from Nebraska. We did not see much rain around here, but we got a rush of rain cooled air and highs Tuesday were in the upper 80s to near 90°.  So, then, this morning the warm front was still to our southwest and we had areas of low clouds and dense fog.  This warm front is still to the west and we have an easterly component to the wind so our highs are around 90° with highs around 100° in central Kansas.  The east wind is keeping very high dew points around which in turn makes it very hard to heat up above 95°.  So, let’s go through the next few days as we are in for more unusual August weather.

TODAY: Here is the set up for today.  The warm front is still to our west.  It is falling apart, but it looks like the remnants of this front will linger on Thursday, so we may see low 90s around here with highs 95-100 just to the southwest.  If we can get the winds to switch to the southwest, then we will warm above 95°.  Right now we have adjusted the high down to the low 90s with crazy humidity.  So, the heat index will be around 105°.  Then, tomorrow night a new cold front will arrive, and it is going to have a big impact on the weekend ending the heat threat.

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THURSDAY NIGHT: The cold front will move in with scattered showers and thunderstorms around the front.  It does not look like a widespread rain event with this front, but some locations will see .10″ to 1.00″.  There are areas, especially eastern Kansas, that have not seen a decent rain since July 13th.

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FRIDAY: The rain chance will decrease Friday as the front heads south, but there will be tons of clouds with a few showers heading east as moisture from the southwest monsoon gets pulled east.  Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

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SATURDAY-MONDAY: The front will stall across northern Oklahoma and Arkansas.  This puts our area in the cool air and in a zone, north of the front, where we will see daily chances of thunderstorms.  So, if you are still waiting for a good rain on your yard or farm, you should be satisfied by Monday.  Highs this weekend will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 60s.  The more rain that falls during the day,  the better chance we have of seeing highs in the 70s with some areas as cool as the 60s!

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Have a great week and weekend.

Jeff

Trying to Heat Up

Good evening,

QUICK UPDATE (1030 PM): There may be areas of low clouds and patchy dense fog in the morning as the warm front struggles to move through.

 

The last two mornings we have had large thunderstorm complexes nearby.  These have not only allowed clouds to be around longer into the day, but they have sent rain cooled air our way, keeping us out of the 90s Monday and near 90° Tuesday.  This is going to change for Wednesday and Thursday, before a change.

TUESDAY MORNING: This is a roll cloud (not shelf cloud as it is not attached to a thunderstorm) that moved across the city 7-8 AM.  This was an outflow boundary sent out by thunderstorms to the north, in other words, the leading edge of rain cooled air that took the edge off the heat today.

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WEDNESDAY: It does not look like there will be a large cluster of thunderstorms close enough to send us rain cooled air, but we will have areas of clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning as a weak disturbance from the southwest monsoon moves by.  So, it will be a hotter day, but still likely not reaching 95°.  The warm front will finally drift by before it washes out.  There will be areas of clouds in Kansas as well, keeping the heat under control.

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THURSDAY: This looks like the hottest day of the week as the warm front is washed out and the monsoon disturbances take a break.  So, we should have highs well into the 90s.  But, look at the cold front with 80s in Nebraska along with new thunderstorms.  This will affect us Friday with a chance of thunderstorms and highs in the 80s.

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SATURDAY-MONDAY: The front from Friday will stall and waver around Kansas and Missouri.  This will separate 60s from 100s!  So, we will be in a zone where there will be daily chances of thunderstorms.  There are some locations that still need a good rain.  This is the next best opportunity for that.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Warm Front and Summer Monsoon

Good evening,

What a crazy way to start August as 6″-10″ of rainfall fell about 50-100 miles east of KC while parts of KC remained bone dry.  Now, we all benefited from the rain cooled air as highs reached the 80s, barely.  So, now what is next?  Are we going to heat up?  Well, it is going to get hotter and more humid, but not as hot as we thought.  This is due to the warm front and summer monsoon.  Let’s go through this.

RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM RADAR: 6″-10″ of rain in the red and purple band.  Johnson county, Kansas had just a few drops.  Wow!

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MONDAY PM: The thunderstorms were caused by this warm front where the 100° degree heat is off to the west.  This warm front will drift slowly northeast, so that tonight more thunderstorms will be forming across northern Missouri and southern Iowa.  A few thunderstorms are possible in KC.  Even if we do not get much rain, it appears the thunderstorms will once again be close enough to keep more clouds around and perhaps send more rain cooled air our way, so we have dropped forecast highs to the low 90s.

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TUESDAY: The warm front thunderstorms will be keeping temperatures in check, but look out west.  Where are the 100s?  Well, moisture from the southwest monsoon will be drifting into the Plains bringing clouds and a some showers and thunderstorms.  This looks to impact our weather on Wednesday.

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MONDAY SATELLITE: The summer monsoon is in full swing as you can see all the thunderstorms in the southwest USA.  Some of this moisture is going to drift into Kansas and affect us on Wednesday.

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WEDNESDAY:  You can see on Wednesday morning we have lots of clouds and new scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This is from the monsoon.  So, during the day, the rain and clouds will dissipate, but they will be around long enough to keep us a bit cooler with highs in the low 90s.

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Then, Thursday looks like the hottest day of the week with highs in the mid 90s as the moisture from the southwest shifts north.  Friday into the weekend will cool off again as we see a new front drift in from the north and moisture heads northeast again from the monsoon.

Have a great week.

Jeff