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Our mid-week cool-down may be pushed back…

As expected, we had some clouds develop over the KC Metro area and that has helped to stall our temps. My forecast high for today was 96°, so far we’ve only hit 95°. We may still muster one more degree, but that looks to be about it. This goes to show a little deck of clouds can toy with a forecast!
Either way, if you can tell the difference between 95° and 96°, hat’s off to ya! All I know is: it’s hot.

Out heat advisory continues to be extended day by day. The NWS has now extended the advisory into Monday, as highs will reach the middle 90s and heat index values should top out over 100° yet again.
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We talked yesterday about a storm system coming in around Wednesday/Thursday and it would cool us down. As feared, it appears this system may get delayed a little bit longer. Latest run of information is really slowing up the system and until it passes through, we’ll continue to cook.

The potential setup for Wednesday is now looking more like this:
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That system will take its sweet time traveling East. By Friday, the latest guidance suggests this is how things may look for us:
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With that said, I feel we *do* still have small chances for hit & miss t-storms that could fire up in the heat of the day. These chances exist almost every afternoon over the next few days. This is what I tend to call the “weather lottery”. Many will hope/wish/beg for the rain, but only a select few may see it. And, it difficult to forecast where until it actually takes off. Basically, weak spots in the atmospheric “cap” are breached and storms bubble up. These are tough to pinpoint in advance (we can generalize them a day or so out), but I wish we could say “town xx and yy will get rain today”. However, it just doesn’t work like that! What I can tell you is that this stuff typically festers in the mid to late afternoon and if you start seeing cumulus clouds with vertical development, you’re on the right path to getting rain.
We’ve seen this happen this evening already.
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I am not expecting much out of this for our area, but perhaps a brief heavy shower passes over a few areas in the Northwest part of our viewing area. The rest of us will stay dry tonight. Keep this kind of thing in mind, because this is what I think we’ll see over the next few days. Nothing widespread or greatly organized, but the hit & miss chances will linger around. They will show up as early as Monday morning thanks to a weak cold front trying to slide through the area. And no, there really isn’t any “cold” air behind this front. That’s why I hesitate to mention it!

I wanted to take a moment to point out the impressive hurricane going on in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, just to the West of Mexico: Hurricane Marie. This thing is incredible. Currently it’s a category 5 storm with winds sustained at 160mph! Here is how it looks on the water vapor imagery:
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This is how it looks on the enhanced infrared satellite. Notice it toward the bottom right of the picture.
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And this is a close-up view. Pretty impressive.
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This storm is expected to drift away from North America and stay over sea.
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While the bulk of this storm in no way will come our way, little bits of energy from it may get drawn up by the larger flow in the atmosphere. These little waves may then get pulled into our area. Again, nothing great, but certainly something to watch.

Also you probably heard about the big Earthquake in California this morning. Measured a 6.1 and is the biggest they’ve seen in the San Francisco area in over 25 years. Seismologists say aftershocks are still possible and they could be big ones. What a wild 24 hours in has been in and around North America. Yet for us here at home, it’s just the same ol’ same ol: hot & dry, hoping for a little change.

As always, we will continue to update the forecast as needed. One thing to remember is that we don’t make the weather….we just try to predict what it’s going to do. Not many people are expected to accurately predict the future every single day, but meteorologists are held to that standard. So we give updates and sometimes the forecast changes a bit. But it has to change, because the only thing worse than putting out a wrong forecast is putting out another wrong forecast and knowing you did!

Stay cool and stay safe in the heat.
-JD

Hottest day of the year in Kansas City

For the first time since September of last year, the reading at KCI climbed to 97° today. So far, that is the official high temperature. It’s possible there was a spike and if there was, I will update this post. But for now, according to the NWS, 97° is the high and that means it’s the hottest day we’ve seen this year.
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So did it *feel* that hot outside today? Our heat index readings made it to around 104°. But here’s the kicker: our dew   points are running about 8-10° COOLER today. Ah, now suddenly us hitting 97° makes sense. Remember, the dew point is a good indication of how much moisture is in the atmosphere (don’t confuse it with relative humidity). On Friday, we had dew points in the middle 70s. Today, our dew points were in the lowers 70s and fell to the middle 60s by the afternoon. What difference does this make on how hot it gets? A lot!

This of it like this: imagine you have a pot of water on the stove that’s about 2/3rd of the way full.
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If you put the heat on high and boil that pot of water, it will take some time. Depending on how much water and how big the pot is, it could be 10 to fifteen minutes, easily.
Now let’s say you take the same pot and use the same heat setting, but you only put a small amount of water into that pot:
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That water will heat up fast. Why? Pretty obvious: there was less water to bring to a boil. So to bring this back around to weather, the atmosphere full of moisture. The dew point helps us to know how much. When the dew point is lower, it does not take as much time to heat things up. That’s what happened today; more or less. We had ample sunshine, lower dew points and it lead to some hot temperatures.

Going through the next few days, our dew points will continue to decline just a bit.
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While this will help make it feel less miserable outside, our highs will still be in the middle 90s through Tuesday. Once we get the middle of the week, we’ll be tracking a system that looks to truly give us a break from the heat. Plus, it could bring some welcome rain to the area too.
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In the meantime, we have small heat-of-the-day chances for rain and t-storms. I could also see some overnight storms getting close to the area Monday morning; something similar to what we saw a couple of days ago. But again, the best chances for more widespread rain hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday.

Find ways to beat this heat as we go into the second half of the weekend. Drink plenty of water and try to find some air conditioning. Before too long, it will look like this:
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And we’ll be wishing it was warm again. Ah, the joys of weather in the Central Plains.

Have a great evening and feel free to go wild in the comments section. If you’d like to chat with me about weather, look for me on Facebook and/or Twitter!
-JD

An Evening Thunderstorm

Good Friday Night In The Big Town bloggers,

Cloud cover and small showers and thunderstorms kept temperatures below 95 again, so we will likely not have a heat wave, unless it happens in the next few days. The small showers and thunderstorms become one huge one around 6 PM:

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This cell formed south of Paola, KS and then tracked across the Missouri border to just southeast of Kansas City.

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You can see the outflow boundary pushing away. Look at that thin green line, and this is an indication that this cell is about to completely fall apart.  Temperatures will warm up over the weekend. I will be blogging about the weather pattern on Weather2020 over the weekend. It is fascinating as we will showcase the tropical system developing exactly 57 days after Arthur.  Wow!  Have a great weekend. I wish that thunderstorm was over my house.  Maybe around Wednesday.  And, there is a slim chance early Saturday morning.

Gary

#hot

Good Morning Bloggers!

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We started off with temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s, so get ready for a hot one out there.  High pressure ridge continues to build east and blocks us from rain and cooler temperatures for the next week.  This will keep the storm systems off the west of us through the weekend.  A cold front will try to push south as the ridge flattens next week, but looks like it doesn’t quite get through the area until Wednesday.  A small chance for a few spots in NW Missouri to see some rain tonight and into tomorrow morning with thunderstorms developing in Nebraska and Iowa.

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It has been such a nice summer don’t just assume your golden out in the heat all day.  Take care of yourself because the humidity will make it feel more like 99° to 105° this afternoon. You don’t want to end up like the Wicked Witch of the West…or maybe you do?

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So…to help you out with this…there is a heat advisory today starting at 1 pm and goes until 8 pm on Friday.

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Good Luck and remember 6 months from now you will be wishing it was like this … I’ll leave you with that.

Kalee Dionne

 

 

Heat Builds, Rain Heads North

Good Wednesday bloggers,

In order for there to be a heat wave you need three straight days of 95° or higher.  It looks like we are about to have our first heat wave this season as our forecast highs are in the 95° to 97° range Thursday through Saturday.  The hotter air may last into Sunday and Monday as the next front looks weak.  A stronger cold front is likely next week.

We are having this heat as an anticyclone, the heat wave creating machine, is forming over the southern USA and expanding north into the Midwest, centered near the Mississippi river.  This ridge will direct the rain making fronts and disturbances north from the Rockies to northern Plains then east to the Great Lakes then southeast into Indiana and Ohio.  So, our area is looking dry and hot into early next week with the big thunderstorms to the north.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 5 days.  You need 1.50″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep the yard green, so sprinklers will be needed.

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Also, the tropics are about to get more active.  There are currently two tropical disturbances drifting west through the Atlantic.  The disturbance marked with an orange “x” has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system in 5 days.  This may have impacts in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week.

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Have a great day!

Jeff

Nice Morning of Thunderstorms

Good Morning Bloggers!

Here is a cool picture that was taken by our storm chasers Leslie and Dean Burton:

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Pretty awesome!  The thunderstorms are pretty much wrapped up at this point and we will stay dry for most of the day.  The reason I saw most is because we could see some development later on tonight.  Timing around 11 pm and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.  Then they would move NE out of the area.  The spots we will focus on for this development later on are from Columbia to Richmond up to Maryville line.  The picture below is our powercast stopped at 11:30 pm.

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Otherwise the ridge of high pressure will continue to build east and the heat is on for the rest of the week. We could be dealing with our hottest stretch of the summer.

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The hottest temperature so far this summer is 96° on July 25, 2014 and our forecasted high temperature for Friday is 97°…Will we get that warm? We will keep an eye on it, but right now it is looking good.

What rainfall totals do you all have from this morning?

Kalee Dionne

Thunderstorms tonight?

Good late afternoon bloggers,

The weather is finally going to heat up this week, and as the warmer air begins to surge in tomorrow there is one chance of thunderstorms.  As you can see the dew point was 70° around 4 PM this afternoon:

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There is a weak cold front approaching. It really is about as weak as it can possibly be and still be called a cold front. Realistically it is more of a wind shift line, and even that is a stretch. It is now located over Iowa and extends southwest into northern Kansas. This should be near Kansas City around 4 AM and this is when our chance of thunderstorms will arrive. We will discuss this on 41 Action News tonight.

Later this week there will be some significant changes.  And, this will lead to the big warm-up, but also a strong cold front that has been in next week’s forecast 12 weeks now using the LRC.  This will be one of the stronger cold fronts of the summer and it will come with two or three chances of thunderstorms between the weekend and early next week.  There is even a chance that we could have a low in the upper 40s by early to mid-next week:

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We will be going in-depth into the developing LRC this fall on the Weather2020 site.  The pattern is still right on schedule at around 57 days.  Take a look at this video that I put together over the weekend. Click here:  The cycling pattern.

Have a great Monday night. I think there will be some thunderstorm development, but most likely later this evening or early in the morning.

Gary

Steady as she goes

If you were up early this morning, you probably experienced a little of that fog. Clouds hung around a tad longer than I expected, but we did manage to clear out afternoon around 1p or so. This, of course, has lead to a slightly humid and warm afternoon. But just you wait, today is the coolest day of the next 7!

Nice looking satellite image taken about an hour or so ago.
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You can see a line of storms along the Arkansas & Missouri line. You can also see a few storm clouds in Northern Nebraska, as well as along the Kansas & Colorado line. At this time, I do not expect the rain to hold together (that’s in Western Kansas) and make it to the KC area. Model guidance suggests it gets to about Topeka and then –gasp, shock: surprisingly– falls apart.
The HRRR depicts the radar as looking like this at 10p:
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But by 3am, this is how the radar would look (if the HRRR is 100% correct):
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So at this time, I am not optimistic about rain impacting us tonight. We do have chances for overnight Monday into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, those odds do not look terribly impressive to me either, but some WILL see rain. Just a matter of if it will be your backyard, or someone else’s backyard.

Looking over the temperature data for the week ahead, I have been conservative in my forecast. Guidance is suggest highs in the middle to upper 90s from Wednesday through Saturday. Since we have had trouble warming up this year, and we still have a wet ground in place, I hesitate to push temperatures warmer. That said, with this setup I’m expecting (the big high pressure building over us, winds turning a bit more to the Southwest), it would be the best chance we’ve seen all summer to truly heat up. Prep the swimming pools and load up on the ice cream…before it melts.

Right now, there are signals that the heat will break by Sunday/Monday of next week. So like we’ve seen all Summer long, the hot stretch won’t last too long. However, this may be the hottest few days in a row we’ve seen since last year. The team will continue to track all of this and keep you updated!

Enjoy the week ahead & be sure to follow along with me on Twitter and Facebook.
-JD

A warming trend starts Sunday

The rain moved through last night and some lucky areas got a really good dose of water. Others, however, will probably say they got nothing or it wasn’t enough.
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The above numbers are as of 5p Saturday. As I always say, your mileage may vary, these are just the reports from the official NWS sites and do not reflect amounts for an entire city.

So far, this has been an unusual summer. It’s been cooler and it’s been wetter than years gone by.
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I don’t think we’ll see rain on Sunday, but chances return for Monday night into Tuesday and then again on Wednesday. Once we get into the second half of the week, it could really turn warm. Indications from the model guidance today suggests low to middle 90s are a safe bet.
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Why is the heat finally showing up all of the sudden? Our pattern will shift a bit and allow an area of high pressure to build over the Southern and Central U.S. by the middle of the week. This is the “typical” setup that allow us to cook during the summer months. Some weather folk will call this the “Summer Heat Ridge”.
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It forces the storm track farther North and allows us to see highs climb into the 90s. We’ve been lucky so far this summer, but our luck may be running out. Might be a good idea to have the A/C serviced or checked. We’ve not had a full week of 90-degree-or-higher temps this year.

The Missouri State Fair will wrap up Sunday. What can you expect tonight and into Sunday? Here’s a peek:
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As you watch our newscasts over the next few days, you may notice some small changes. Don’t worry; we are working on something very cool for you. Hang with us and see what we have in store.

Hope you all have a nice weekend,
-JD

Much Needed Rain

Good Morning bloggers!

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What a beautiful Saturday sunrise after some much-needed rain overnight.

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The widespread rain has moved east and most of us our dry now, but how much rain did we see last night?

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Some spots like Emporia, KS only got three hundredths of an inch compared to Chillicothe, MO got 2.53″ of rain.  How much rain did you guys get?

The forecast moving forward is mainly dry, but a cold front that will sink south throughout the morning and afternoon hours may have a few storms that fire up along and ahead of it throughout the afternoon.

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The front will be south of us by this evening and our winds will be out of the northwest for tonight and tomorrow.  Also, I took rain chances out for Sunday, but there could be an isolated shower, but overall we should be dry.  Also, a nice warm up next week with temperatures up in the lower 90s.

Kalee Dionne