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Drier Days and Active Tropics

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have had rain in the area since Labor Day and some locations still got very little rain.  Here is a look at radar estimated rainfall totals since Labor day around the region. Your rain gauge may read different as these are not only radar estimates, but we have picked one point here and there.

When we look at the wide view you can see all locations saw rain since Labor day, but you will see some rather low amounts near by. Very heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred on Labor day from southwest Kansas to southern Iowa and northern Illinois where amounts were 3″ to 8″. 10″ of rain occurred just northwest of Manhattan, KS creating serious flooding.

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When we look a little closer, look around Lexington, MO where amounts since Labor day were around 0.20″! The northwest corner of Missouri saw 4″-5″ of rain and most of that was early in the week.

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The big rain winner in the Kansas City area was Johnson county where rainfall amounts were in the 2″ to 3″ range. The rest of the KC area saw .50″ to 1″ in five days. That is not that much.

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There were two bands of very heavy rain south of KC. One band extended from Paola to Garnett to Iola in Kansas. There was flooding around Garnett as amounts in this band reached 3″ to 6″.

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The second band was located from around Sedalia to Clinton in Missouri where amounts were in the 3″ to 6″ range. It was still raining in this location Saturday morning.

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What is next? We are in for dry and warmer weather the next several days.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Any showers and drizzle will be over as the storm system shifts to the east. Highs will be in the 60s and the clearing line will be getting into northern Missouri.

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SUNDAY MORNING: Lows will be in the low 50s where the sky clears and mid to upper 50s where it is cloudy. The bottom line it will be a comfortable start.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The weather will be very nice with highs ranging from around 70° where there are more clouds to around 75° where there is more sun.

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NEXT WEEK: It will be dry with a warming trend to highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. The humidity will return by the end of the week. So, if you missed the summer weather, it is on its way back.

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TROPICAL UPDATE: The weather across the USA  will be mostly calm next week, but the tropics will be crazy. We will be tracking 4 tropical systems. The two farther east will likely not be a factor in the USA. The one approaching the Caribbean Sea Wednesday may be a factor in the Gulf of Mexico around the 20th. The one of more immediate concern is Florence.

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Florence will likely be a major hurricane on Wednesday as it is several hundred miles east of the Carolinas. It will be moving west and the end of next week Florence will be a factor on the southeast coast. Now, will it make landfall? Stay offshore and do loop de loops?  Something we will be keeping an eye on (no pun intended).

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

The Same Pattern Has Four Weeks Left

Good morning bloggers,

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A steadily growing area of rain is drifting northeast across Kansas.  It will be a wet and rainy day in KC with a few spots receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain.  The heaviest rain early this morning was located over southern Kansas with a disturbance spinning around.  The same pattern continues to cycle, and we can go all the way back to the beginning of this pattern in cycle 1. Look at the satellite picture from that day:

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And, look at our forecast from this October 10th day:

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These pictures were taken from what I wrote 342 days ago, or exactly on cycle from the 47-48 day cycle, and remember, Hurricane Nate had just come inland a few days earlier in almost the exact spot the Tropical Storm Gordon tracked.

A new and unique pattern will be setting up in a few weeks, and for now, it is still the same, just the September version.  The rain was increasing as I was writing this. Here is the KC timeline:

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy with rain likely 1″ is also likely with local amounts up to 2 inches possible.  Temperatures will be dropping to 65°.
  • Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle or rain likely.  Low:  59°
  • Saturday: Cloudy and cool with some drizzle or very light rain. High:  63°

This forecast looks rather similar to the cycle 1 version of the pattern. Pretty fascinating, right?  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Very Active Hurricane Season: Weather Models Threatening The East Coast & KC’s Chance Of Rain

Good morning bloggers,

Hurricane season is now in hyperdrive as we look at the bigger picture. We have Hurricanes Norman, Olivia, Florence, and more development.   And, here we go again with the models.  If you remember, the National Hurricane Center had a 0% chance of development for Tropical Storm Gordon, while our prediction was at 84% chance of storm development from months earlier.  This time, we aren’t concerned with development as this has obviously occurred. This time we are highly concerned on the track as there are major implications depending on whether Hurricane Florence will blast the coast or curve offshore. The computer models have some scary solutions for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.  Take a look at this:

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These are three of the models with two of them, the Canadian model and the European model bombarding populated areas of the United States, while the American GFS model showing it curving off shore after a major threat.  Remember, we have a tremendous insight using the LRC.  Based on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, known as the LRC, I would place a 55% chance of it curving out to sea and a 45% chance of one of those other solutions of it making landfall happening.  This is the part of the pattern that ends up producing a big eastern storm, and when that happens, it will deflect the hurricane back out to sea.  The question is exactly when will this happen. If it is a day or so faster it may hit the coast, and if it is a day slower it will get deflected out to sea.

The National Hurricane Center Track:

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By Tuesday of next week Hurricane Florence will likely be a major hurricane and still be way off shore. The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC and again, the speed of this storm is critical.  Let’s keep monitoring this.  Even though I am leaning in the curving out to sea as it approaches the eastern seaboard, it is definitely something that must be monitored day by day.

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The dark green areas show the Flask Flood Watches which include the KC metro area, yet we are on the edge of this watch.  Look at the red around Hawaii.  Are you kidding me?  Hurricane Norman is very close to Hawaii and Hurricane Olivia must be monitored closely.  Hawaii is obviously in a hot spot this year for activity as there have now been FOUR hurricanes throwing impacts on the islands already this season.  Surf will be up. Norman will track north of the islands bringing very high surf to Hawaii.

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Back west over the middle part of the nation, what is left of Tropical Storm Gordon is going to combine with another storm system to create some flooding rains.  Over 2″ of rain did fall in a few spots yesterday, and in areas that really needed it.

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The models have trended towards a storm developing, combining what is left of Gordon with the next storm on schedule in the cycling pattern. Yes, we are still in the same pattern for just four more weeks and then we will welcome the new LRC in October.  For now, it is still more of the same, but slightly different.

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The models have trended into the heaviest rain to be located over the eastern half of Missouri. Let’s see how this forms.  Expect cloudy and cooler conditions in KC with periods of rain or drizzle the next three days.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Join in the conversation over on the Weather 2020 blog.

Gary

100% Chance Of Rain

Good morning bloggers,

Tropical Storm Gordon will weaken to a depression today, and then go through a rather interesting transition by Saturday as the overall LRC flow (500 mb wave train aloft that is cycling according to the LRC) picks up the storm and combines with an upper level trough to create a new surface low by Saturday over Missouri.  This is a rather complex development and how it forms will decide which locations get the most rainfall later this week. Ahead of this development is a band of tropical moisture and a weak cold front moving slowly across the plains states today. Take a look at the radar images from around 7:40 AM this morning:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain likely north and west of a Pleasanton, KS to Lone Jack, MO to Chillicothe, MO line. South and east of this white line shown above will likely get missed by most of todays rain, and this is the target of the main storm developing by Saturday, however.  Temperatures in the 70s.
  • Tonight: Scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms.  Low:  67°
  • Thursday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
  • Friday-Saturday:  Much cooler with highs in the 60s with rain likely, heaviest south and east of I-35

Here is the rainfall forecast from the latest GFS model run:

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The prediction of Gordon to form and track where it did was precisely done by Weather2020 8 months ago by applying the LRC technology.  One point I will make today. Our analytics had an 84% chance of a storm to form and track there by June 1.  The National Hurricane Center had 10% chance five days before. Think about that for a few minutes.  Now, what comes next? There is a 64% chance Florida will get hit by a hurricane later this month. Right now, Florence is likely not the one.  We will monitor closely, as we have had a prediction for one to threaten the southeast coast, including Florida within around two and a half weeks.

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We will see how the models trend today on the rain chances for rest of the week. Right now, the bottom of my rain gauge is bone dry. Will it overflow the 1″ tube, or is my pond going to continue to have a beach around it. Have a great day and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Developing Hurricane Gordon Predicted 8-months Ago

Good morning bloggers,

This may be argued to be the best weather prediction ever made, certainly the best long range weather prediction ever made.  Take a look at this comparison of developing Hurricane Gordon and the prediction made eight months ago in front of my peers at the big AMS conference in Austin last January:

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I shared this with NBC’s Al Roker over 3 months ago:

And, you can’t make this up bloggers. Take a look at these two maps:

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As many of you who know the LRC, once Alberto formed, we knew with high confidence that Gordon would form near the same spot, and it is almost perfect.  The LRC is down to this scale of precision.  Now, what is going to happen with this system?  Let’s take a look:

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Look closely and you can clearly see Gordon intensifying on this RGEM model. This implies that it will be a strengthening hurricane in almost the exact spot as predicted by Weather2020 8 months ago applying the LRC.  Where will it go from here?

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As you can see on this next map, a cold front, or more stationary front by this time frame on Thursday morning, will be bending around the tropical system with an outer band of showers and thunderstorms developing.  The location that end up in this outer band may see four inches of rain just from this system. And, the remnants of Gordon are tracking northwest into Arkansas from Louisiana.  Look at what may happen next:

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Gordon will begin to be affected by the next LRC wave in the flow. This may begin the intensification of the remnants of Gordon as it tracks into Missouri and exits rapidly Friday night and Saturday.  How will this impact KC?  Will we be left dry once again, or will we break the ice and bring some badly needed rainfall.  As close as we have been to 5″ to 10″ rainfall amounts in the past two weeks, many spots are still ridiculously dry.  My pond has a huge beach around it out my back door.  Let’s see how this sets up.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:  Accurate Long Range Prediction Again From Weather2020

Gary

A Tropical Storm Is Forming & It May Send Moisture To KC

Good morning bloggers,

Happy Labor Day!  I will be working at KSHB-TV this evening and we will be tracking a developing tropical storm.  The national radar shows the developing tropical system just southeast of Miami, Fl. Also quite noticeable is a band of rain and thunderstorms extending across Kansas and Iowa and then east to near Chicago, IL.  This band of rain has been in a zone that has barely moved, and as a result a few spots have now received over 4″ of rain with another 4 to 8 inches of rain likely, which will lead to localized flooding. While all of this is going on, Kansas City continues to be in the shadow of the rain. This will be good news for Labor Day activities as the chance of rain will remain low today.

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Tracking The Developing Tropical Storm:

  • A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border west to New Orleans
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border west to Morgan City, LA

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Tropical Storm Gordon will be named within the next 24 hours or so.  Thunderstorms, convection, have developed over and near the center of this system. When thunderstorms form near the center, there is tremendous latent heat released and this heat is what will now begin to organize and spin up this system.  South Florida is the first target as you see above with the large area of rain, torrential rainfall in the brighter orange colors.  This system will move out over the Gulf of Mexico where the water is warmer than average.  The conditions will become favorable for strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours, so just as it approaches the coast it may form into a hurricane.

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Later this week, the remnants of Gordon will approach KC from the southeast. Where will it track exactly? This developing track will have an influence on our weather farther north. It may end up west of the predicted track, so let’s monitor this closely, yet this European Model shows an increase in rainfall over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. There are a few spots left that are still in drought conditions and this may be the week the finally wipes the drought out?

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For those of you paying close attention to our weather predictions, you will know this storm was predicted in January to develop now.  The LRC is applied (the peer reviewed technology proprietary to Weather2020), and this allows us to make these predictions, and also to “know” and predict the most likely path of these systems, winter storms, severe weather outbreaks, Arctic outbreaks, etc.  The National Hurricane Center is adjusting the path a bit east of yesterdays outlook and this is a more likely scenario as this will threaten the northern Gulf Coast states from new Orleans to Pensacola, FL.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  A few morning clouds and staying dry in most areas.  High:  86°.  There is a 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm with southeast to south winds 5-15 mph.
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight, 20% chance, of a thunderstorm.  Low:  71°
  • Tuesday:  Periods of clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. The chance of rain is 30%.  High:  84°
  • Wednesday:  Thunderstorms likely with heavy rain.  A few spots may get 1 to 2 inches of rain.  High:  81°
  • Thursday:  Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.  High:  74°

Have a great Labor Day, and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here and join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

A Front, Tropical Moisture and Gordon?

Good Sunday bloggers,

I hope your Labor day weekend is going well. We are tracking three main weather features the next 5-7 days that will have an impact on our weather. Those features are a front, tropical moisture and the chance of a named tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

First let’s talk about the front.

This has been the focus for very heavy rain and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa the last two days with amounts of 2″-7″. Eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri have been on the southern edge of these main rain areas. This will be the case today and for Labor day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around both days with the most coverage northwest of KC.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: The front will sag south a bit, so the main thunderstorms will be a bit farther south into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. These will have a chance to drift into the KC area before they fall apart.

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LABOR DAY: The front will lift back north a bit, but we add in a flow of tropical moisture from the south. So, this means scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for all locations. We are also watching for the chance of a named system in the Caribbean Sea.

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TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will be the focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms as the tropical moisture gets intertwined with the front. Could Gordon form and track to between New Orleans and Fort Walton beach? It could, and whatever it becomes, the moisture will head north and may be a factor in our weather at the end of the week.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS: The location of the three features mentioned above will determine who sees the most rainfall. Right now it looks like northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and Iowa will have the best chance to see 4″-6″ of rain or more.

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Locations to the southeast of KC may see under .25″-.50″ of rain. This is, needless to say, a tight gradient and makes for a tough forecast.

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This gradient could easily shift northwest or southeast by 50-100 miles. It is going to depend, mostly on the location of the front. If Gordon forms, it would not be a factor until around or after day 5.

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Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

Please don’t drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner

Increasing Rain and Tropical System Chances

Good Saturday bloggers,

We will see rain chances increase each day for the next 5 days as tropical moisture increases from the south and a front drifts in from the north.

We had a few showers and thunderstorms this morning, mostly north of I-70. These were a southern extension of much bigger rain and thunderstorms across Iowa. These small and brief downpours will end by noon. There will be a 10% chance for a few new thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Highs today will be around 90°.

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This is the map for Labor day. You can see we are in a flow from the Caribbean Sea. This flow will become increasingly more moisture laden as it tracks into our region. As this flow increases, a front will drop in from the north. The heaviest rain and thunderstorms will be along the front across Nebraska and Iowa through Labor day. Then, we will see the higher chances drift south.

Also, look that the red text. Yes, a tropical system is looking more likely according to the models and National Hurricane Center for early next week across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Now, we have been saying this location and timing for a tropical system since January. If one forms, it would likely be named Gordon.

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You can really see the tropical flow in the 5 day rainfall forecast. The bulls eye near New Orleans is showing where the tropical system may occur.

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When we zoom in to our area you can see the 5 day rainfall forecast ranges from around 1″ to 3″ with the heaviest northwest, closer to the front. Some locations may see locally higher rainfall depending on the extent of the tropical downpours.

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LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST: The chances increase each day as moisture from the tropics increases, increasing the coverage of the downpours.

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Here is the latest drought monitor. We are now officially surrounded. This week there should be some serious dents in the drought, not only here, but across Texas and Oklahoma.

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When we zoom in, you can see the areas of severe to exceptional drought across northern Missouri and around Kansas City. This came out on Thursday. Thursday night and Friday morning saw some big rain in northern Missouri.

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Wow! Look at this. 4″ to 7″ of rain occurred in the very areas that needed it. So, there is no doubt that when you add this plus what is yet to come, that the drought is waning over northern Missouri. Rainfall around KC has been piddly in comparison, so the one remaining drought area seems to be the KC area, which is the exact opposite of last summer. KC was one of the only locations in the region, not in a drought. During the next 5 days even the KC area should see a reduction in drought conditions.

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Have  a great, happy and safe Labor day weekend.

Please don’t drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner

 

 

Looking Into September & Tropical Development

Good morning bloggers,

A rather interesting weather pattern is setting up for the first week of September.  There will be a tropical connection forming in the next several days that may end up increasing our chances for rain over the holiday weekend.  The tropics are becoming active as predicted it would be by Weather2020 this week 8 months ago (see the last graphic in this blog).  The peak of hurricane season is approaching and it usually will pick up in activity at this time of the year, and what Weather2020 has shown with this recent prediction is that using the LRC the location of the activity increase is predictable.  More on this below. Here is the 7 PM forecast 500 mb chart from the overnight GFS model:

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The 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet above us.  This is around half way up in the atmosphere in weight, is unaffected by surface friction, and is the best level to monitor storm systems.  Tropical storms are warm core systems with the most intense part of the storms near the surface. A reflection of them is easily seen aloft, however, and we can see the development of what will likely become Hurricane Florence over the holiday weekend. There is also a tropical wave near the Bahamas that is being monitored closely.

For Kansas City there is a warm front passing through this morning, and this has triggered thunderstorms, most numerous east of Kansas City. The heat and humidity will be returning big time today with highs jumping to near 90 degrees or higher the next two days.  By Sunday, the flow will be rotating in from the Gulf of Mexico at most levels of the troposphere. This will increase moisture and will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms in Kansas City before the holiday weekend is over.

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September is one of the wetter months on average in KC. And, the next 16-day total from this latest GFS model run shows that the first half of the month will be somewhat active with rain chances.

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I quickly put this together showing the 8-month prediction made at the AMS conference in January as compared to the 5 and 7 day outlooks that came out the past couple of days.  Weather2020 over the past few years has made these types of predictions accurately for tropical activity, severe weather outbreaks, Arctic outbreaks, winter storms, and more.  As Real Humedude suggested yesterday, it is how it is phrased, how it these predictions are described that will continue to evolve.  This latest example, at 8 months out, we would predict the location and explain how a tropical wave is likely to target this region on the date range predicted.  And, then as we get closer the prediction will become more specific.  Either way, this is a validated LRC prediction, and I am sure most of you would agree.  These other outlooks are strikingly similar to the one that was issued and monitored for 8 months now.  The models are the models, so let’s see if anything intensifies early next week, right on schedule.Screen Shot 2018-08-31 at 7.25.00 AM

Have a great day and a safe holiday weekend. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation at weather2020.com.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Here it the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Tropical Outlook Comparisons

Gary

A Look Into The Next Few Chances Of Thunderstorms

Good morning bloggers,

As August is inching towards its ending, we are finally getting some more consistent rainfalls.  Today’s thunderstorms had more organization than most complexes of thunderstorms that have struggled in our region this entire season.

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Kansas City was just north of the center of this MCS (Mesoscale Convective System).  The thunderstorms continued into the late afternoon producing a cold pool of rain cooled air:

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This is likely going to be a factor for where thunderstorms redevelop tonight. If the cold pool washes away and the warm air is able to surge back in, the thunderstorms will form near the Iowa border.  If it holds together long enough, and the warmer air doesn’t take over, then the thunderstorms may form closer to KC.  It is something I should be able to identify by the 10 PM newscast tonight.

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And, then next week. The LRC forecast of a potential tropical system has already verified. The National Hurricane Center has a similar risk to the one that was made by Weather2020 8 months ago.  It is in the same spot for the same time frame. It does not mean there will be a tropical storm or hurricane, however. We will monitor this region closely.  It is quite obviously as forecast just by looking at the GFS model output for early next week.  And, there is a flow from this region to over Kansas City. This may lead to an increased chance of thunderstorms near KC. If a very organized storm forms, like a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely cause sinking air near KC. The impacts will be better defined in the next few days.

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This forecast map above shows the precipitation and  clouds forecast by the GFS model for Tuesday.  Let’s see how this evolves.

Have a great evening.

Gary