Quantcast

Severe T-Storm Watch & Snow Is In The Forecast

Good afternoon bloggers,

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect the rest of the afternoon until 7 PM this evening. There may be a few severe thunderstorms with hail 1″ in diameter the main risk type. There may be a few thunderstorms that end up having some larger hail. The main threat this afternoon and evening may end up being flooding. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have formed along, ahead, and behind a cold front that is steadily pushing our way.

1

The cold front is steadily moving southeast and there are two waves of low pressure on the front that I can see. One of them is now in southern Iowa, and a second one is due north of Emporia. It has warmed up to 78° in Emporia.  The front is just south of St. Joseph where the temperature just dropped to 59°, and snow is falling over western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas.

2

 

The cold air will rush in tonight, and then there is a chance of snow by morning.  Let us know what you experience this afternoon and evening bloggers, and thank you for sharing in this exciting weather experience.  Try to call in and donate to the Pet Telethon tonight! It benefits a great cause, the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.

Gary

Rain & Severe Potential Today

Pet

Good morning bloggers,

It is the morning of the Pet Telethon. Crystle Lampitt and I are hosting the 14th annual Kansas City Pet Telethon on 38 The Spot from 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM. That responsibility alone is a huge task on a Sunday. They have been preparing for this telethon for a year that benefits the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. Hopefully some of you can call in and donate tonight. Will there be any severe weather as the Pet Telethon gets under way? The timing on the front appears to be a bit faster as the front is not that far away this morning:

1

This surface map is from 7 AM this morning.

day1otlk_1300The Storm Prediction Center just reduced the risk from moderate to slight in areas to our south.  Here is an excerpt from the SPC:  ”Eastern Kansas to Central/Eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas this afternoon and tonight…The initial southern stream shortwave trough over the southern high plains will eject east northeastward over north Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas today reaching Missouri and Arkansas by early tonight as an upstream wave digs southeastward into the four corners. At the surface, the remnants of a lee cyclone ins southwest Kansas this morning will continue across northern Illinois to lower Michigan overnight. In the wake of the low a cold front will accelerate southeastward across Kansas into northern and western Oklahoma through the afternoon. Widespread clouds will disrupt surface heating and lapse rates aloft, aside from a narrow corridor along the cold from by early to mid-afternoon.”

The risk was reduced to slight because of some uncertainty on the conditions coming together for severe weather.  For Kansas City we will be monitoring the advancing cold front closely as it is on the move this morning.  As the front moves through thunderstorms will likely line up along and behind the frontal zone. Some severe weather may be produced with hail as the primary risk type.

Severe weather yesterday produced hail that looked like snow in Rockford, IL:

Hail

Heavy thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon and then move east tonight, and then we will look into two chances of snow. Yes, two chances! One later tonight and Monday, and another one later in the week.  Here is the first chance of snow as simulated by the NAM model that just came out. It is April 14th and it is very rare to have accumulating snow this late in the season, but it happened last year in May. We may be in a developing northeast to southwest band of snow early on Monday with accumulations possible mainly on grassy surfaces:

2

We will update the blog early this afternoon.  Have a great Sunday.

Gary

Warming Up Today, Thunderstorms Sunday

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system will be approaching us tonight and Sunday.  The front is timed to move through Sunday afternoon and evening and there is still some question on the exact timing. Right now I favor a slightly faster solution which would bring the front through KC around 4:30 PM Sunday.  Here is one Powercast we showed last night:

6

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight north and west of Kansas City:

1

A weak stationary front is setting up near the Kansas/Nebraska border extending northeast into Iowa. This will be north of our local area this evening so any thunderstorm development will likely be north and way out to the west. Later tonight any thunderstorms that form west of Kansas City may organize and move east arriving later tonight into early Sunday morning.  And, then we will be watching the strong cold front approaching on Sunday which will overtake the stationary boundary. The conditions will become more favorable for heavy thunderstorms and a few could be severe. The most likely area for severe weather on Sunday is way to the south.

2

And, here is the probabilistic forecast:

3

Here is the NAM model surface forecast from the 06z (1 AM) model run.  Notice the wind shift/cold front is forecast to push southeast to where I drew in the cold front. If this is the case, then the precipitation would be heaviest behind the frontal zone and the thunderstorms would lose their warm and moist inflow, but the leading edge of the coldest air is really very close to Kansas City at this time. So, there will likely be a corridor of very heavy rain and thunderstorms situated between these two boundaries which should place us in prime position for heavy rain, but limited chance of severe. This is why there is only a slight risk with us on the northern edge.

4

Farther south the risk is moderate as a result of the front interacting more with the warm and moist air, but even down there there are some questions.

And, there is still some potential for some snow as the cold air rushes in. Let’s see how the models trend today.

Have a great day and we will try to update the blog later this afternoon or evening. Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Timing Of The Front Is Critical

Good evening bloggers, and Happy Friday Night In The Big Town!

The timing of the cold front is varying from model run to model run, and this is a very important factor for where the heaviest rain from the thunderstorms will be located.  The new data is coming in late this afternoon and I am about to come on the air at 4 PM.  I will be showing this comparison on our weathercasts at 4, 5, and 6 PM.

  • Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, most likely from around I-70 and north
  • Thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning
  • Thunderstorms and rain are likely Sunday afternoon and evening. The timing of the front is critical because if the front moves through too early the heaviest rain may end up south and east of Kansas City.

6

And, look at this one:

5

The top one is the latest trend with the front blowing through Kansas City around 4 PM Sunday.

The latest NAM (00z or 7 PM model run) has the front slower again with a lot of rain. And, it also has snow Sunday night. A lot to go over tonight and Sunday.  Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town!

Gary

Another Complex Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

There is a lot to go over today and we will begin with our rainfall deficit:

4

Rainfall is below average for the month, and below average for the year!

5

At this time of the year you can either catch up on rainfall fast, or you can fall much farther below average rather quickly.  There is a good chance of some very heavy thunderstorms later this weekend:

6

I am going to wait to finish this blog entry until later this morning after the new data comes in….

11 AM Update:

The new data is trickling in and the latest NAM has rain, sleet, and snow in the 36 hours from Sunday into Monday!  The GFS has a faster solution with no snow on the back side.  This model blows the front through around 4 PM Sunday with heavy thunderstorms and then the cold blast. So, it is three to six hours faster than the NAM model. The hang back wave that produces snow on the NAM model is not as organized on the GFS model. Which one is correct? Probably neither of them, but a combination of the two. Let’s see what the rest of the models show and I will be on at 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM on Friday Night In The Big Town with an in-depth weather forecast.

The 14th Annual Kansas City Pet Telethon is on 38 the Spot Sunday night at 6:30 PM.  Will we be in the middle of a line of thunderstorms at 6:30 PM Sunday? We will have around 100 dogs in the studio. Of all days, we don’t need a line of strong to severe thunderstorms at that hour but it seems to be timing out about then.  Maybe the cold front will blow through a bit earlier?  Anyway, if you can call in and donate it would really help the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.  Stormy and Breezy were both adopted from the Humane Society of Greater KC!

Pet Telethon

Have a great day, and check back in for updates over the weekend.

Gary

New Data Tonight

Good evening bloggers,

I am currently looking over the new data. The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and this next storm is right on schedule. Will it be a big rain producer? Will it be a wide spread rain? We will address this a bit more soon as we move into Friday.

3

Moisture will be increasing from the Gulf of Mexico and by Sunday we will be in prime position to have bands of rain and thunderstorms develop.

1

The energy aloft that we will be tracking will be coming over a ridge near the west coast as it has in each previous cycle. How will it move out into the plains and interact with an upper level storm near California? We will discuss this on Friday!  And, the chimpanzee’s should be contained at the KC zoo on Friday too!  Have a great night’s sleep.

1

Gary

A Weekend Storm System

Good morning bloggers,

A weak cold front is moving through today and it will be followed up by a much strong cold front on Sunday.  There are still a lot of questions to answer for Sunday’s storm system and we will go over a few of them here, and then we will have your most accurate forecast on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Here is one of many possible surface solutions valid Sunday morning:

2

The models are having a hard time in the evolution of this weekend storm system, but every model has a pretty good amount of rain being modeled for our area as you can see below on this rainfall forecast.

1

The new data was not as bullish on rainfall totals, so here we go again bloggers! We will get more specific on 41 Action News and tomorrow in the blog.

JD Rudd is filling in for Kalee Dionne this morning. Kalee went to New York City and met up with Al Roker yesterday and the Today Show crew. She will catch us up on her trip next week.  And, our news team took some pictures yesterday.  Here is one fun shot of Jadianne Thompson, Jack Harry, and myself.

Gary Jadi Jack

 

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

A Stretch of Decent Spring Weather

Good Wednesday morning bloggers,

We are at the start of the longest stretch of nice weather so far this year!  We are expecting 4 straight very nice Spring days.  Actually, today will be the most annoying as winds gust to 30-35 mph.  Below we will take you day by day through Sunday.  The nice weather comes to a screeching halt on Sunday.

TODAY:

We are in a Red Flag Warning for an enhanced fire danger.  This due to the warmer temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds and dry brush.  The grass is starting to green and this will help to reduce the fire danger.  Also, the Red Flag Warning is not in effect southeast of I-35 as there will be less wind and conditions are more moist.

THURSDAY:

A weak front will move through with little moisture.  So, no rain is expected with the front.  We will have a 10 degree temperature drop along with a reduction in wind.  Although, winds may gust 15-25 mph for a time.

1

FRIDAY:

This will be another nice day as high rebound to the 70s along with a light wind.  A weak disturbance will race by early in the morning and could spawn a few showers and thunderstorms.  In the map below, you can see a bit of rain in eastern Missouri.  This is a 5 PM map, so this would move through our area 5-10 Am Friday.

2

SATURDAY:

This is the weekend day to get things done outdoors.  The weather looks great as highs reach the mid 70s along with a 10-20 mph breeze.  It will even be a bit humid as dew points rise to the 50s.  But, as you can see there is a cold blast organizing in the northern Plains.  This will be headed in Saturday night-Sunday along with a storm system coming out of the Rockies.

3

SUNDAY:

What a change!  The cold front by later Sunday will have blasted south into the southern Plains.  We will have a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night with the front.  This will then be followed by a cold rain, north winds 15-25 mph and temperatures falling from the 50s to 40s on Sunday.  We do need the rain and hopefully amounts will be .25″ to 1″ or more.  We will be updating the latest on this next storm system and cold blast the rest of this week.

4

The cold air will likely lead to a freeze Monday and/or Tuesday mornings.  So, like we said yesterday, our advice is to hold off on planting the tender vegetation until early May.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Morning Showers, Warmer Days Ahead

Good Tuesday morning bloggers,

One last disturbance is moving through this morning and has produced a band of showers that is quickly moving south.  The rest of the day will be dry, breezy and cool with the scattered showers mainly across southern Missouri.

Here is the radar from 830 AM.  Amounts were trace-.05″.  The April showers will help bring the May flowers!

RADAR APRIL 8

Also, I caught this rainbow on the way to work.  It did not last long, but a nice way to start the day!

RAINBOW APRIL 8

Tomorrow morning will start cold, but then much better weather moves in.

1

If you have been waiting for more than one day in a row of decent Spring weather, you are about to get your wish.  Tomorrow will be windy, but highs will reach near 75° with abundant sunshine.  A cold front will move through Thursday, but it is not that strong, so highs will cool to the 60s to near 70°.  There will still be plenty of sunshine and with the front nearby as high pressure moves in, the winds will be much less.

WEDNESDAY:

2

THURSDAY:

3

Friday will also be nice with highs near 70.  Saturday warms into the 70s ahead of another change in the weather.  A strong cold front arrives Saturday night with a good chance of thunderstorms.  Sunday looks windy and cold with a chance of rain, so we will get 4 decent days in a row!

The cold could lead to a freeze next Monday and a few more freezes will be possible, so I would wait to plant the tender vegetation until early May.

Have a great day!

Jeff Penner

Another Freeze Is Likely

Good morning bloggers,

It will start out cool and cloudy this week with a chance of some light precipitation.  And, then it will warm up big time, but then this will be followed by a strong weekend cold front that will bring a chance of thunderstorms and the likelihood of another freeze by early next week.

1

The weather pattern is cycling into the part of the weather pattern that brought Kansas City it’s first inch of snow on the Plaza to end the snowflake contest.  A strong cold front will likely move through by Sunday with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms, and it will be followed by a freeze next week.  Read more about the pattern and the accurate weather forecast made for the Master’s Golf Tournament on the Weather2020.com weather blog:  Another Accurate Long Range Forecast

Have a great start to the week. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the ActionWeather Blog!

Gary