Good Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning bloggers,
This storm system is spinning north across Kansas, which finally broke the ice on the long dry spell that was shattered apart yesterday with over two inches of rain in many spots. There is another system approaching us on Friday and I will be discussing that one over on the Weather2020 blog. This current storm has been fascinating, and for those of you who believe in the LRC, well, then you know that this storm will cycle back through and likely around the first week of 2016. Happy New Year will likely have a major winter storm developing near by. Another unique pattern is in progress. According to the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th, cycles regularly, and regional hot spots are identified where storm systems reach their peak strengths. The weather pattern is now set, but we still need two more weeks to analyze this first cycle. I will have the full winter forecast coming out in that first week of December when our Winter Forecast Special half hour show comes out. For now, let’s take a preliminary look:
Snow, rain, sleet, hail, thunder, lightning, drizzle, wind, and ice! We are forecasting a wild weather pattern ahead. I have been making winter forecasts on the air since the mid-1990s and we are using breakthrough technology known as the LRC. It is a new technique that we believe will be a great tool for weather forecasting in the future. Even though we have been using it for more than 20 years, it is still early in its development, but we are getting results. Using the LRC we have been making accurate weather forecasts down to a series of dates. In the past two years the forecasts have been even more accurate.
Recent Accurate Forecasts:
- Last winter we forecasted that Kansas City was likely not going to be in the right spot for storm systems, and we forecasted 17 inches of snow, below average snowfall. 14 inches fell, and we were almost always not quite in the right spot as most storm systems missed us.
- 30 to 60 days before Arctic Air Blasted in we predicted they would happen last winter in late December and again in mid to late Febraury
- Two years ago we forecasted 24 inches, and 26 inches fell.
So, how much are we forecasting this winter? I will let you know in just a minute.
There is organization to the chaos in the upper levels of the atmosphere. There is a complex atmospheric puzzle, and we are cracking the code. The LRC may indeed be the biggest piece, the center piece, but there are other factors that are weighed into our accuracy formula as we figure out this cycling pattern. One of these big factors is El Niño, the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
This El Niño may be the strongest ever recorded, and there are already some influences on this overall pattern. Just the tornadoes we had on November 16th in a very rare location for this time of year may be related to the warmer climate. And, it is likely a result of the near record warm tropical Pacific Ocean water. What does this mean for Kansas City, and the rest of the United States?
One thing I know for certain, every El Niño is different. Every year is unique, whether there is an El Niño or not. Last year, Boston had over 100 inches of snow as a result of the pattern we were in a year ago? Who will have the record winter events this year? We are currently identifying this pattern, and here is what we are forecasting at this preliminary stage. In two weeks I will be writing up a full winter forecast, but for now take a look.
We are forecasting near to above average temperatures across the entire nation. There will be two to three stretches of very cold air, however, and we are currently identifying which parts of the pattern will most likely be very cold. The jet stream is going to split at times, and the southern branch of the jet stream will likely blast into California with a few periods of very wet weather there, but there will also be longer dry periods to balance out that region to just above average on rain and snow. The biggest wet area is most likely from Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas east to the Mississippi River Valley where flooding rains are likely. There may be a few minor icing events, and conditions appear that they will become favorable for one major ice storm that will likely include parts of Kansas and Missouri.
One of the two main storm tracks is likely going to repeat many times this winter and into next spring. This will lead to excellent ski conditions in the Rocky mountains and out west. There are other parts of the pattern we will identify in the next two weeks.
For Kansas City, we are forecast above average temperatures this winter. Rainfall will also be above average with some flooding rains possible. It will be cold enough for one big ice storm, and five to ten snowstorms that will bring our total to 23” this season.
Our winter forecast special is on the first week of December. By then, we will have identified the rest of this winter’s pattern and I will write up an extensive winter forecast. Let us know if you have any questions.
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Good Tuesday bloggers,
The significant storm system we have been talking about for days arrived Monday, and wow what a bunch of crazy weather it produced. First, there were about 40 tornado reports from western Kansas south to the Texas panhandle. This was quite rare for this time of year. Usually when you have a tornado outbreak in November it occurs across the southeast USA, so that is one odd thing. The other odd thing is that temperatures were in the 50s and 60s, and the tornadoes continued in to the night, in November? Really?
Here is the next crazy thing, it is now snowing where the tornadoes were yesterday. This is the second time in 2 weeks this has happened in our region. Last week it occurred in southeast Nebraska.
Our area has received some beneficial rain with amounts 1″ to 2″ since midnight. This is on top of the .10″ to .50″ from yesterday. The rain will end by 2 PM with a new .10-.35″ likely.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: The main band of rain will move off to the east tonight. Then, we will be in the dry slot overnight with a partly cloudy sky. Then, by tomorrow morning we will get into the back side, wrap around of the storm. So, it will be cloudy and windy with a few rain showers as the storm system takes off to the northeast.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: The storm will exit quickly and we may see some peeks of sun before it sets. The wind will be from the west at 15-30 mph tomorrow.
The next system arrives Friday into early Saturday. This has our attention as it could bring some rain and snow, very interesting. We will have more on this in the coming days.
So, all of a sudden we are getting storm systems. What does this mean for the winter? Gary Lezak will have his winter forecast tonight at 10 PM.
Have a great week.
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Good Monday bloggers,
Last night we had the first round of rain with a lead disturbance. Amounts were more generous across Missouri. We need much more than this as most locations are in either a moderate drought or abnormally dry. Let’s go through the forecast and time out the rain.
TONIGHT: The first round will arrive between 9 PM and midnight.
TONIGHT (2 AM): Then we will see 2-3 more rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms racing north from Oklahoma where they could have severe weather. A very heavy line of rain and thunderstorms will be out in central Kansas. Once, this line moves by, the rain will diminish.
TUESDAY (6-8 AM): This is when the final heavy line will likely move through, so tomorrow morning’s rush hour may be a bit slow.
RAINFALL FORECAST: The latest data has some generous amounts with 1″-2″ over most locations. This is the RPM. The new 12z GFS has about the same forecast. The 12z NAM is now the only model to have eastern Kansas and western Missouri in a rain shadow with amounts .25″-.75″. This is unlikely, but can not be ignored. Let’s hope it is wrong.
TUESDAY PM: After the rain exits, we will enter the dry slot of the storm. This means we will see sunshine and highs well into the 60s. The wrap around arrives Wednesday with low clouds, wind and a few rain showers. Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Have a great week and enjoy the rain!
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The main focus will be for the rain coming our way tonight into Monday and again Monday night into Tuesday. As of this evening, everything is still on track. This is the radar as of 5:20p.
That rain should continue to work this way and arrive in the general Metro KC area after midnight. Best window, to me, looks to be about 1a to 3am for it to arrive.
As it stands now, the steady to heavier rain should be out of the Metro area by the morning rush. That doesn’t mean the roads won’t be wet, however. So take your time as you head out and be sure to check the forecast, in case something has changed.
There looks to be another round of rain coming in for the lunch hour Monday.
Otherwise, I expect a cloudy sky and mist/drizzle to linger off and on through the day. Aside from that, it’s going to be a very windy day. Sustained wind speeds around 20 to 30 miles per hour with the occasional gust near 40mph possible. Add a few rocks to the kids’ pockets or to your garbage cans!
More rain still scheduled to come in for Monday night into Tuesday. This round could be a little bit heavier at times. Even a few rumbles of thunder would not surprise me. Once again, a lot of this should push out of the area by the mid morning hours on Tuesday.
It’s also looking possible that we get the dry slot of the storm system to poke into the area Tuesday afternoon, clearing the clouds and giving us some sunshine.
Should that happen, temps really could soar in the afternoon. Cherish the warm temperatures, because a change is coming…
Rainfall totals on this round of guidance are not as impressive as before, but still needed.
The forecast is still consistent with keeping the heaviest rain in parts of Central and Eastern Missouri.
All right, let’s talk about next weekend. This could be our first taste of winter, one way or another. In terms of temperature, it’s going to be cold. This would be the temperature map at 7am on Sunday:
And what about the moisture? There could be enough in the area to give us some showers Friday night into Saturday. The timing of that previously mentioned cold air will be key…
This is how the GFS sees the moisture falling:
And this is how the Euro plays it out:
Obviously, the GFS is more gung-ho about it. Tossing in that cold air, we’d likely turn those showers over to snow in a quick amount of time–again, providing the true cold air actually makes it here in time.
So with that thought in mind, this is what the GFS says for snowfall:
And this is what the Euro thinks:
So yeah, there is a big disagreement between the two models. Typical, I’d say.
All right, time to revisit the rule of winter snow forecasting… one model map, from one run of the guidance, a forecast does not become. So while this may look “awesome” or “great” or even “oh no, say it ain’t so, I don’t want snow!”… things will change about 83 times between now and next weekend. Matter of fact, the GFS snow map above is from the 18z (noon) run today. The previous run, 12z (6am), looked like this:
Already some hefty change. Let’s not lose our collective mind over this just yet. Also, consider this: it’s mid November. It has to snow at some point. Has to.
That’s all I have for tonight. Remember the rain and the wind for Monday/Tuesday.
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Plenty of wind again this afternoon and temperatures soared well above average. We topped out in the 60s today.
Tonight, we’ll keep the breeze going. That’s going to help keep the temperatures up just a little bit. You may still need a jacket if you have plans outside.
For Sunday, the sun will mix with clouds from time to time. And yes, the wind is back with us again. I expect it to be from the South around 15 to 25mph and a little gusty. Attention will then turn to the rain chances for tomorrow night. Moisture will be pull up from the South and could arrive here as early as 11pm Sunday.
I think the better chances will be overnight into very early Monday morning. There should be a break in the steady rain through the day on Monday. However, the clouds will stay in place and I cannot rule out some mist/drizzle in some areas through various parts of the day. Oh, and the wind will be back again too.
Rain should return Monday night into Tuesday. And we could see some pockets of heavy rain Tuesday.
Right now, the timing is moreso for the morning to the early afternoon Tuesday, with chances dropping off in the afternoon and evening.
The latest (10p) version of Powercast plays out Tuesday morning like this:
I cannot rule out some lingering showers early Wednesday, but the system should start to pull away then. Three day rainfall totals won’t be as high for our area, as compared to parts of Eastern Missouri. But we’ll use any bit of rain the sky will give us. And the latest information Saturday night is promising. High resolution RPM model being generous. Let’s just hope it pans out…
We’ll continue to track this and give you updates. Watch for our forecasts this weekend as the system gets closer. I have a feeling things may change a little bit more.
Looking ahead, it’s a little early to give any certainty, but the GFS model is hinting at snow in far NW Missouri for next Sunday. It’s just one run of one model, over a week out. No reason to get too excited, but we’ll earmark it and see how it all unfolds.
Hang on to your hats this weekend!
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Good Saturday bloggers,
The last two months we have gone from normal soil conditions to abnormally dry/moderate drought in many locations. So, rain is needed. We have 2 storm systems the next 5 days and lets hope we get that allusive widespread rain. So, lets go through the forecast.
SATURDAY: It will be a sunny day with highs in the mid to upper 60s. The wind will pick up from the south to 10-20 mph with a few gusts 25-30 mph. So, if you are going to take care of the leaves today, just know the wind will be increasing this afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Tonight into Sunday morning will remain clear with lows in the 40s. Tomorrow will start sunny and end cloudy, but stay dry as highs reach the low 60s. The wind tomorrow will be even stronger from the south with gusts 30-40 mph. The fire danger will likely become enhanced, however rain will arrive in the nick of time. The first system will eject out of the southwest USA, producing an area of mostly light to moderate rain. It will arrive around 10-11 PM Sunday night. Total rainfall with this first system looks to be .10″ to .50″. That is not much, but hopefully it will be widespread and it is a start.
MONDAY: The first wave of rain will be out of the area by the Monday morning rush hour. There will be lingering mist and wet roads by Monday morning. Then, the rest of Monday will be windy and cloudy with a few showers. Highs will be in the 50s.
MONDAY NIGHT: The second, main and stronger, system will be moving into the Plains. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will be increasing and heading this way.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: The second and main system will drop into the southern Rockies, then lift out to the Great Lakes. This is going to create a large area of rain and thunderstorms for the Plains and Midwest. There is going to be an area from Illinois to Louisiana that will see 3″-6″ of rain. This could cause flooding issues. Our area is on the western edge of this heavy rainfall. Right now we could see 1-“-2″, but we will have to see if the heavy area shifts west. The severe weather will likely stay over the delta region.
So, hopefully, by Thursday we will have had the rain we need for all locations.
Have a great weekend.
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No doubt about it, yesterday was just a bit on the breezy side. The wind speeds were pretty high through the entire day, but the occasional wind gusts were something else. Here is a list of just a few of the highest gusts recorded on Wednesday.
Lee’s Summit takes the prize with the highest reading. Not to be outdone, the downtown airport in KC picked up a gust over 50mph.
Many sent us photos of how the wind impacted them. For over 20,000 KCP&L customers, the power was knocked out as trees fell onto powerlines.
Today, the wind is was not as strong but the Red Flag Warning was issued.
The takeaway for you and I on that: be careful–extra careful–of any wayward flames. Be it a cigarette butt, or a controlled burn. It could easily lead to something much worse.
After the sun sets, the wind will ease up thanks to a decrease in the “pressure gradient”. Gusts may still try to flare up, but thought should settle too after the sun is down.
This is caused by a difference in surface temperatures over a small area. Sharp temperature differences lead to a large change in pressure over a (relative) small area. This causes air to flow from lower pressure to higher pressure. Thus: wind! And lots of it. That’s just a crash course in wind, by the way. Lots more to it than just that!
Talking about how dry it is, we need some rain. And badly in some area. The newest drought report came out this morning and it shows the dryness has expanded in some areas.
We need around one to three inches of rain to get us out of that drought. Good news: some big rain is headed this direction for next week. The bad news… it may miss Kansas City.
While the data is new and subject to change, this is what one of the forecast models is suggesting for rainfall totals by Wednesday of next week. This would be a running total of rainfall between Monday and Wednesday.
The heaviest rain would likely fall in parts of Southern and Eastern Missouri. Let’s hope this is not the pattern we fall into going into the winter months.
For now, we will continue to monitor and update you. But at this rate, I would not be surprised to see another Red Flag Warning this weekend, as the wind should ramp back up and the conditions will stay fairly dry.
Have a nice night,
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Good late evening or early morning bloggers,
Wow, what a storm. And, yes, it will be cycling back through in future LRC cycles. For now, look at what it did. I do not believe I have seen anything like this before. There were many tornado reports in Iowa today, and then this evening, just a few hours later, it snowed. Take a look at these reports. And, there is a big storm due in next week, possibly bigger than this storm, and I will be showing how it is part of this year’s pattern on Weather2020’s blog. Our winter forecast comes out next Tuesday night at 10 PM.
The red circles show the tornado reports and the blue shade is the snow falling as of 10 PM. Wow! And, here in Kansas City, it blew through, literally, with no rain at all. We are dry and next week’s storm would go a long way to helping out with our dry beginning to this pattern. Have a great day!
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Good evening bloggers,
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as a powerful storm system kicks out into the plains. It has already produced a third snowfall to the California mountains, and this energetic system is now moving our way. As you can see below, there is a slight risk of severe weather, and as the Storm Prediction Center is now calling it a level 2 risk, or an Enhances Slight Risk just north and east of Kansas City
And, yes, this storm is one that will repeat in other cycles of the developing pattern. I did an extensive blog, as I do every morning, at Weather2020.com as we discuss this breakthrough technology known as the LRC. Take a look at this set up for this storm beginning with early Wednesday morning:
The surface low is forecast to strengthen during the day with our pressures getting quite low. I do not remember such a functional storm in last year’s pattern. We will be taking this storm, and next week’s potentially very wet and slow moving storm system into consideration when we issue our winter forecast possibly by early next week. This storm has a cold front, dry line, warm front, and various troughs, one of which is well defined by that black dashed line. Snow will likely spread into northwestern Kansas early Wednesday morning and blizzard conditions are possible. For Kansas City, the big question will be when will thunderstorms form, where, and how strong. The lowest levels of the atmosphere, the surface, will likely see temperatures in the 60s, which is a bit cool for significant severe weather in the morning. And, the winds in the middle layers will be quite strong, on the order of 65 mph, and this would cause thunderstorms to move northeast t 65 mph, which will make it difficult on storm chasers. Rarely have I have seen severe weather when the wind is that strong at 10,000 feet and above, but it is not out of the question. Take a look at what happens by early afternoon.
As you can see above, the showers and thunderstorms start out weak and small around 1 PM, but look at what happens by 5 PM:
Yes, that is 100% sunshine just before sunset tomorrow night. And, the thunderstorms are forecast to become severe with all severe weather risks possible east of our area.
Let’s see how it sets up. We will keep you updated on 41 Action News. You can follow us on twitter and facebook as well to help us out. Have a great Tuesday evening. The pattern is getting a bit more exciting.
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Just a quick update, since not much will change for Monday & Tuesday. Those two days look to be mild for this time of year, with highs in the 60s. I do think it will be a little breezy Monday, then a bit milder on Tuesday.
The big story is Wednesday. I’m still expecting a storm system to cruise this way.
The timing is still in flux and so is the exact placement. If things continue on the current trend, severe weather could be possible for some areas.
Again, this is still subject to a little bit of change. Based on the newest information, the rainfall amounts may not be all that great for our area.
Remember, we need rainfall. But at this rate, the better amounts look to wind up in parts of Iowa & Nebraska. Go figure.
I still pose this question: what will happen first in KC in the next few months: a full inch of rain or a full inch of snow?
Something to chew on.
I think no matter what, the wind machine is going to be on “high” for Wednesday. Get set to hold on to your hats!
Have a great Sunday night!
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