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Tracking record-cold temperatures for Saturday morning

No doubt about it: it’s cool out there! Average temperatures right now are supposed to be 81° in Kansas City. Yesterday we did not make it out of the 50s and it looks like we will stay in the 50s again today. However, going into tonight, high pressure should settle over the area and this will change things for us BIG TIME.
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Right now, indications are that we’ll see widespread 30 degree readings across our area.
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We have not seen air that cold in months. It’s also possible we wind up even colder if the clouds wind up clearing out sooner. Without question, this means we are on record watch for Saturday morning.
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Check out that record in Kansas City for tomorrow. It has stood for over 120 years! I think many areas will tie or set records tomorrow morning. The good news is, since the high pressure will be right over us, we’ll see a sunny sky in the afternoon and it will warm into the 60s.

How uncommon is it to see temps in the 30s in September?
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We typically do not see lows fall below 40° until the first week of October. So this is a bit unusual. However, it will not last long and we’ll be back to more comfortable weather as we go into the work week. We’ll also be tracking another chance of rain coming up on Monday.

You might be asking: Does the cooler summer mean we’re going to have a cold winter? I am currently working on a blog and crunching some numbers discussing this. Keep your eyes to the site to see it!
-JD

Rainfall totals & Falling temps

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Cloudy skies will persist today even though the rain has moved out.  Some spots in our viewing area got LARGE amounts of rain last night, but other spots got diddly squat.  Post your rainfall totals, but here ere is a look at the rainfall totals in our system:

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Now we turn our attention to the cold front and the temperatures dropping throughout the day.  As of 8:30 AM the cold front is moving into the NW part of the viewing area.

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This is a very strong cold front, so those of you waiting for the humidity to go down just wait a couple of hours.  Much cooler and drier air will move in behind this front.  Here is a look at the hour by hour temperature drop:

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Enjoy the cool down and we will have another update later on today.

Storm potential today

Good Morning Bloggers!

Still a lot of questions in regards to today’s threat for severe weather.  We are currently 74° and will warm up into the middle 80s.  We have clouds around, but dry with showers and thunderstorms off to the northwest moving into Nebraska and off to the northeast in Illinois.

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Storm Prediction Center has our area in the Slight Risk for severe weather.  We think the best chance will be along and north of Hwy 36 later on this evening for strong to severe storms.  The main threats would be damaging winds, hail and heavy  rain for our area.  We need to watch the storms that form in Nebraska and Iowa closely because they could take a southeast turn toward the northern edge of the viewing area and these storms would have the best chance of producing tornadoes.

Still a lot of uncertainty about when these storms will start.  Some of the models have us  with thunderstorms as early as noon today and lasting through the overnight.  I’m not convinced with the set up we have right now and think the storms will be the worst near the low that moves from northern and western Kansas up toward western Iowa late tonight.   We will have to watch this closely.

We will have an update later today.

Kalee Dionne

Strong storm potential for Tuesday; all about location

I’ll cut right to the chase: there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This you probably already know by now. However, this does not mean it’s a “sure thing” nor that everyone will see thunderstorms at all.
Right now, this is the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
SPC
Kansas City is on the edge of a Slight Risk. This outlook will not be updated again until about midnight tonight. In that update, I would expect the SPC to place more of a focus on Iowa and Eastern Nebraska. Like we’ve seen over and over this season, that appears to be where the best dynamics will be.

Our afternoon Powercast model is suggesting the same, with the strongest storms in Iowa and far Northern Missouri late in the afternoon to the nighttime hours. Here is just one screenshot, showing how 5p *may* look.
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From here, Powercast keeps most of the activity in Iowa. To see this in motion, check out my latest web video forecast: kshb.com/weather

Right now, in our viewing area, all options are still on the table in terms of what kind of severe weather may happen.
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What stands out to me is the risk of straight-line winds. Here again, we’ve seen this a few times this season where storms produce hefty wind gusts that get your attention (40-55mph).
We have been lucky and not seen much in the way of large hail. While I cannot rule out a couple of cells producing some severe hail (over quarter size), I think strong winds will be the biggest concern. There will likely be localized flooding for the towns that get under the heavy cells. Once more, I think a majority of this will be confined to the Iowa area.
What about tornadoes? There does appear to be a little more shear to the atmosphere, so some quick spin-ups are possible. It is next to impossible to pinpoint where a tornado will form, so you’ll need to pay heed to warnings if/when they are issued Tuesday.

The best window for rain and thunderstorms still appears to be late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. THAT SAID… there will likely be some morning showers around too. Don’t be fooled and think “oh, that’s it?”. The bigger show will arrive once the cold front gets closer and that doesn’t look to be until after dark Tuesday.

On Wednesday afternoon, I expect the winds to really pick up out of the Northwest and for temps to drop as the day goes on. When you send the kids out the door in the morning Wednesday, make sure they have a jacket. They may need it by the time school ends.
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Our team will continue to track what develops on Tuesday and provide updates on air and online. No matter what, just make sure you stay informed and be weather ready as Summer and Fall do battle right over our heads.

-JD

Jump on the crazy weather train

Good Morning Bloggers!

A quiet start to what will be a big week weather-wise here in Kansas and Missouri.  Let’s start with today, which will be easy because it’s going to be beautiful.

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Here is a picture I captured earlier this morning as the sun started to rise.  This is a great way to start the week.   We will see temperatures a tad bit warmer than yesterday into the lower 80s.  South winds will help usher in that warmer air and moisture ahead of our next storm system that moves in tomorrow.

There is a chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, but our best chance will be late Tuesday night and into Wednesday night.  Below are the NAM output for midnight & 7 AM Wednesday, which has the best dynamics for severe weather to our north, but still we could see a few strong wind gusts and heavy rain for the spots that normally get the bad rain this year.  It is the same pattern that we have seen consistently this season with spots like St. Joseph to Chillicothe northward getting pounded and the KC Metro area barely gets anything.

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Here is the GFS & the NAM are similar on timing and where the best dynamics will be in Iowa closer to the low.

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Rainfall totals will be high to our north with very little here in the KC Metro area. The Weather Prediction Center’s Day 1-3 QPF  map has spots like Chillicothe to Kirksville, MO with the most rain near 2″ with less than an inch here in Kansas City.

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After the active weather overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, we will see a drop in temperatures. This has been consistent since last week in the models.  A cool Canadian air mass will plunge south behind the departing cold front and drop temperatures throughout the day Wednesday.  This will put us in the 60s for Thursday and through the weekend.

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The overnight low temperatures will be CHILLY!  We will see many spots in the lower 40s on Saturday morning and I would’ve rule out an upper 30 in there somewhere.  Get the sweaters out and ready to go for Friday night football this week.

Have a great week and we will update the blog later on.

Kalee Dionne

Warming back up to start the week

We’ve enjoyed a wonderful weekend when it comes to temperatures. Some might say it’s Goldilocks weather: not too hot, not too cool. Thanks to a nice area of high pressure over the region, the winds have been light and the sun has been bright.
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The High will continue to drift off to the East and this will allow our winds to return more to the South.
Over the last ten days, our highs have really been all over the place. It seems as soon as we get warm, a shot of cool air moves in and settles things down.
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Going into Monday, I feel we’ll start to climb those stairs toward higher temps. Thanks to winds out of the South, our temps will climb into the lower 80s. For many, I think we’ll wind up near average (which is 83° for KCI).
Winds may shift a little more to the Southwest on Tuesday and I believe that will be enough to boost our temps even more. Could be the hottest day of the week easily. Here is how the forecast looks to stack up for Tuesday around the area:
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Now what about that chance for rain? It’s there during the day on Tuesday, but the BETTER chances appear to arrive Tuesday night an into Wednesday morning. Our latest in-house Powercast model is showing this as the setup for Tuesday night.
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Right now, I would say to plan for showers and sprinkles in the morning on Tuesday (they’d be scattered at best), then greater odds for actual rain, heavy rain, and thunderstorms by Tuesday night. Could turn a little noisy in some areas thanks to thunder.

Cooler air will seep in on Wednesday. Right now, given the timing of the system, I think we could see highs near 80 on Wednesday, but it would happen early in the day and then temperatures will fall through the afternoon. The next push of cool air works in for the end of the week and really drops us below average.

I know there has been talk about some serious cold coming into the area. Models are still indicating 30s are possible along the Iowa/Missouri state line. Given how things have gone this year, that would not surprise me. The better question is: how far South will that cold air sink?
The GFS is now saying the coldest air will arrive Saturday morning (not Friday, as it was saying yesterday). Notice the heart of that cold air being depicted over Western Wisconsin and far NE Iowa.
GFS
This would suggest (keyword) temps around 38°-40° for the Northern part of Kansas City. Once again, this is just model guidance and does not mean it’s “going to happen”.

The Euro models is in similar thought, saying the cold air arrives Saturday morning. It does take the cooler air a little more to the Southwest (into parts of the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles).
ECMWF
By the same token, it also suggest temps will be hovering around that 40° mark for Kansas City. We would need a clear sky and a drier ground for this all to happen. If we have clouds and/or some lingering moisture in the ground, I do not think it will get that cold.
Either way, this will NOT stick around and temps should start to quickly recover going into Sunday and Monday of the following week.

I’ll be back in on air tomorrow at 4, 5, 6, and 10p. We’ll keep tracking all the changes coming our way over the next 7-10 days, so be sure to check out the forecast. I hope you’ve had a great weekend!

-JD

PS–
If you see something on Facebook about “Record-Shattering Snowfall This Winter”, it’s fake. The site is a satire site and is known for tricking people. Please don’t believe their story and for the love of everything, DON’T share it around!
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The quiet weekend continues

Tons of sunshine and some delightful temperatures today. Hard to argue that today wasn’t a good day! That said, I know there will be someone, somewhere that says today wasn’t what they wanted. Good thing I’m only in the “sales” side of weather and not the manufacturing part of it! My job is to sell you on the forecast and try to put a positive outlook on whatever may be going on. If I could control the weather, you’d be able to tell!

Check out the highs we had across the area today:
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Keep in mind we’re supposed to be at 83° in Kansas City. After all, it’s technically still Summer (but that really depends on who you ask). By the first week of October, we tend to see average highs in the 60s. Though it’s not uncommon for September to see a few days in the 60s. That will happen for us in about a week. Before we get to that, let’s talk about the cool morning.
Made it all the way down to the forecast low of 55° at KCI.
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Tonight will be close to 50° in KC and some areas to the North may wind up in the upper 40s, thanks to the clear sky and the light East winds. The record low tonight at KCI is 47°, set back in 1986.

We will likely warm up a bit more for Sunday. The sun is still at a good angle and we’ll have plenty of it. Plus, the winds will turn back around more to the South and that should help to usher in some milder air. Either way, it will still be great for Chiefs football. Here is what to expect if you’ll be headed to the game at Arrowhead.
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For those sticking close to home and doing things around your area, this is what to expect:
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Close up the computer, ignore the comments section for a day, get outside and go enjoy the nice weather!

I’ve got my eyes on Monday night through Wednesday evening. That’s our next window for rain and storms to move into the area. As it looks right now, the best shot would be Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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There will be a storm system moving by to our North during this time frame. Indications right now are that parts of Nebraska and Iowa will get the most rain out of this. But that’s not to say we may not get a healthy gift from above.
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I hesitate to post any kind of QPF (rainfall) projections from the models just yet. It will likely change and I am not the kind of person that wants to promise you moisture only for it to be taken away. Just know there is a chance and we will continue to monitor how this system takes shape and how it tracks across our region.

Farther down the road, models are still hinting at another big cool-down for the end of the week ahead. That said, there is still a little disagreement. The latest 12z model run of the GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) show a similar idea, but cannot agree on placement.
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GFSFRI

Both images above are valid for Friday morning, the 12th. The Euro wants to place the heart of the cold air over Montana and doesn’t spill it too far beyond Minnesota. Whereas the GFS is a little more aggressive with the cold and plunges it all the way down into Northern Missouri AND Kansas City. If the GFS verifies, this would spell lows in the upper 30s for us! That seems to be a bit much this early in the season. Nonetheless, it’s something to keep eyes on over the next week.

Make the most of your weekend and thanks for checking out the blog, keeping it positive, and for sticking with 41 Action News. Have a great evening!
-JD

Friday night update & a look to the weekend

Step outside today and you could truly feel the change. A cold front moved through and dropped the temperatures about 20 degrees in a 24-hour span. High temperature reports for today will be a bit deceptive because many areas hit their highs at midnight (because the temperatures basically fell all day).

As for the rain, the models did not seem to handle the timing very well. Obviously it DID rain, but not in every single area. As of 8p, these are the rainfall reports via the NWS reporting locations (your backyard gauge may read differently):
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Right is done in Kansas City at this point. There are some lingering showers out to the East of the city, but those should continue to drift that direction and move out of the viewing area around midnight. That said, I do still see a little activity in Southern Kansas. This *could* drift to the South of KC overnight, but I do not think it will amount to much–if anything–for us.

Focusing on the weekend, an area of high pressure will settle down over us, allowing for the sky to clear out and the winds to remain fairly light. Toss in the fresh push of cool air, and this really will be a great weekend for outdoor events.
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Temperatures will try to warm as we go into Monday and Tuesday, but with rain in the forecast, it doesn’t appear we get above average. That said, the forecast models are suggesting our highs will be near 90. Something about this seems strange given the time of year and that rain chance. That said, this time of years the models can struggle with certain things and wind up spitting out bogus numbers.

One thing I can tell you: there is good agreement (via the models and via the pattern this year) that we’ll see another cool-down for next week.
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Another cold front will be on the move and this one will mean business. We’ve seen these shots of cooler air push in about every two months, so this should not be too much of a surprise. Given the shorter days and the lower angle of the sun, it may be difficult for our temperatures to recover. Right now, the indications are we’ll see overnight lows very close to 50° and highs struggling to reach the low 60s. As always, this is a forecast and is subject to change. No sense in getting worked up about something that hasn’t even happened yet.

Taking a moment to reflect back on the month of August, the great folks at the Kansas City NWS office have published an info-graphic of stats for a few locations:
AugInfoStats

What stands out the most in Kansas City is the precip. Up over three and a half inches for the month. Whereas St. Joseph was down over an inch and a half. Truly all about location when it came to rainfall in August.
Also note that temperatures were not that bad. While we did have some warm days, nobody cracked 100°.

At this point, I’d be willing to bet Kansas City is done with the 90° days. Perhaps we squeak out one more, but given how this year has been, we should be done. Good news for those tired of the heat and for those looking to keep those electric bills low.

Open up the windows tonight and leave them open all weekend. It’s a great stretch of weather for most people. Our next rain chance arrive Monday night into Tuesday and it looks fairly decent at this point. As always, we will continue to track it and provide updates. In the meantime: GO CHIEFS!

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-JD

Tricky Forecast

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Gorgeous shot on our skyview with sunshine and a few clouds.  There was a few showers that moved in the northern parts of the metro this morning, but have fallen apart.  We will see on and off showers throughout the day as the cold front moves southeast.

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Temperatures will be tricky today.  This will be what we call a nowcasting event where the entire forecast is based on how fast or slow the cold front moves through for temperatures.  This morning the front is north of KCI, but south of St. Joseph, MO stretching back toward Topeka. The temperatures range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s from northwest to southeast.  The same spread in temperatures will continue throughout the day with 80s south of the cold front and 60s northwest with Kansas City smack dab in the middle with 70s and falling throughout the afternoon.

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We will update this later on, but keep an eye on radar because the best chance for rain is tonight.

Kalee Dionne

From one extreme to the next

Good Morning Bloggers!

What a beautiful, but humid morning we are having out there.  You know when it feels like this in the morning it is going to be a hot one.  We will see temperatures once again in the lower 90s, so if you didn’t quite get enough pool time here is your chance.  May I say your last chance before a big change?

Strong southwest winds will continue to pump in warm air and moisture north into our area ahead of the next cold front.

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The cool air isn’t far away though and will be here in less than 24 hours.  We will see almost a 20 degree drop in temperatures between today and  tomorrow.

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Talk about a shocker! It will feel great and really put me in the mood for fall decorating, but still WOWZA! The front will be here tomorrow morning with on and off showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Friday and into early Saturday morning.

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Other than fall decorating there is most importantly FOOTBALL! I’m pretty excited and it will feel like football season on Sunday and those of you heading out to Arrowhead on Sunday will LOVE the forecast.

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I hope you have a great day!

Kalee Dionne