Quantcast

Wednesday Thunderstorms

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Today was a nice reprieve from the active weather.  This is a one day calm spell as we have 1-2 chances of thunderstorms Wednesday, some may be severe.

There is a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday.  This means a 15% chance of seeing any type of severe weather within 25 miles of each point.  This slight risk can be for the chance of morning and then afternoon thunderstorms.  Tomorrow is a complex weather day, so lets; go through it.

4

 

WEDNESDAY 4-10 AM: A warm front will be lifting north and this will likely generate thunderstorms.  Some of these thunderstorms will contain torrential rain and hail a quarter size or larger.  This would be severe.  The question is, how extensive will the morning round become?  Will there just be a few thunderstorms, or will it form into a major deal? This is something we will have to monitor later tonight.  The extent of the morning activity will have a bearing on the afternoon thunderstorms.

1

 

WEDNESDAY NOON: The morning thunderstorms will most likely be gone, leaving us partly cloudy, warm and humid.  If the morning activity is bigger, the chance of afternoon severe thunderstorms is reduced, due to less instability.  If the morning activity is smaller, then we will have to watch closely for explosive afternoon development.

2

 

WEDNESDAY 4-9 PM: There is another factor in whether we see big afternoon thunderstorms.  The cold front may move through quickly, so that when thunderstorms get going on the front it will be well east of our area, or on the eastern edge of the viewing area.

3

 

So in summary, we will be monitoring the extent of the morning thunderstorms.  This will help to determine how much instability is available for the afternoon threat.  Also, where will the front be located when the thunderstorms decide to form?  There are many questions to this tough forecast.

We have to take tomorrow seriously as there is a low tornado threat, for mainly afternoon activity.  It is low, but it exists.  There is a damaging wind, damaging hail and flash flooding threat for both the morning and afternoon events.  Flash flooding is likely the biggest issue as the ground is saturated and 1-2″ rainfall rates for 15-35 minutes can cause issues.

5

 

Tomorrow is one of those days to keep an eye on the sky and know your severe weather plan.  Also, “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” 6″ of flowing water can wash away a car.   You can keep updated with the 41 Action News app, Storm Shield app and on 41 Action News on air.

Have a good night.

Jeff

 

Severe or Not Severe?

Good Monday bloggers,

We are once again in a slight risk of severe weather today.  However like yesterday, we are in total cloud cover with increasing areas of showers and thunderstorms.  This will likely keep highs down to the 60s and low 70s.  This is too cool for severe weather.  So, our severe threat is quite low.  This evening in central Kansas severe thunderstorms may form where there is more sun.  These thunderstorms will head east towards our area tonight.  They will likely weaken as they approach as we will be more stable and it will be night.

This is the satellite from Monday morning.  Needless to say we have a complex weather set up.  There are upper lows in South Dakota, Colorado and Washington.  The small low in Oklahoma is a disturbance being kicked north in the flow.  The small low is responsible for the rain today.  The Colorado low will move east and may push the weakened thunderstorms through tonight.  The Washington low will bring the chance of more rain and thunderstorms Wednesday.

1

 

The low from Oklahoma will head north into Missouri, putting our area on the west edge of the rain.  This will still keep conditions cloudy and cooler through the afternoon.

2

 

MONDAY PM:  You can see on this model the rain is from KC east.  This is the most likely scenario.  It may even be a bit further east.  Notice the clearing in central Kansas.

3

 

 

MONDAY EVENING: We do clear out and will keep an eye on any thunderstorms that form in central Kansas.  If we clear after 4-5 PM it will be too late to heat up enough for severe weather.  So, most likely the severe threat will stay low as our instability stays down.

4

 

Tuesday will be drier, warm and humid as this system moves by.  Our next thunderstorm chance after today is Wednesday.  This has a severe chance as the instability will be high, but the front may move through before it has a chance to fire and also a warm front may set up to our south and we could have morning thunderstorms, keeping the temperatures down.  We will have more on this Tuesday.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Sunday night weather update

Our overall forecast remains on track. We felt the risk of severe weather today would be low and it is. You can thank the morning clouds and showers for that. However, it’s not the same case in parts of Central Kansas. We have another chance for thunderstorms on Monday. Get the latest in-depth details on how long the rain may last and what our severe chances will be in my latest video blog:

Hope you had a nice Mother’s Day!
-JD

Sunday AM Forecast Update

Happy Mother’s Day,

The day is starting dry,  but showers and thunderstorms are on the way.  A disturbance will move through as it comes northeast from Oklahoma.  There is a slight risk of severe weather, but realistically it is a very low threat as moisture is limited.  Now, that being said, some locations will have very heavy downpours and possibly quarter sized hail.  It looks like the thunderstorms tonight will drift north as the warm front drifts north.  The forecast for Monday is complex and we will have to see how things evolve tomorrow morning.

You can see an increasing area of showers and thunderstorms southwest of Wichita.  This rain will be in our area after 12-2 PM.  Once it arrives the rain threat remains until 8-10 PM.

1

 

Have a happy and safe Mother’s Day.

Jeff

Tracking severe weather potential for Mother’s Day

After several nice, dry days across the area, things are going to change on Mother’s Day. Thunderstorms are looking likely and the threat for severe weather really takes off to the West of Kansas City. With a lot of detail to cover, spend a few minutes and check out my video blog:

We will continue to keep you updated on how things take shape over the next couple of days.

*A programming note: due to coverage of the Kentucky Derby & NHL hockey, our 5pm & 6pm newscasts for tonight have been cancelled. You can get the latest weather forecast over at kshb.com/weather. We’ll be on the air at 10pm tonight!
-JD

Omega Block

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are the beginning of a great stretch of weather as the weather pattern is getting blocked up.  We are now in an Omega block, as the jet stream takes on the shape of the Greek letter Omega.  When these blocks form, the weather you have at the start of the block usually last 4-6 days before the block breaks down.  Fortunately, for us we are in the nice weather part of the block.

3

There are troughs on the west coast and eastern USA.  A large ridge is found in the middle of the USA, and this is where we live!  So, we are looking at some great weather the next 5-6 days.  Our next chance of rain arrives Sunday into Monday as the west coast trough moves into the Rockies and Plains and the block breaks down.

4

A weak front will move through early Wednesday, so the highs will be similar to Tuesday.  Then, the warming trend gets going as the ridge slides slowly east.

WEDNESDAY: We will see highs in the 60s as we get a glancing blow from the front.  Highs will be in the 40s across the Great Lakes.

1

 

THURSDAY: We warm to the 70s, a near perfect day!  The 80s in western Kansas will arrive Saturday.

2

 

Have a great night.

Jeff

 

A Calm Week Ahead

Good Monday bloggers,

After an active week that saw our 2.50″ rain deficit become a 2.50″ rain surplus this week will be much different as we go into a calm weather pattern for about 5-6 days.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A ridge will build into the middle of the USA with troughs in the eastern USA and west coast.  This is somewhat of an Omega block.  This means we are in for 5-6 days of sunshine, mostly light winds and highs warming from the 60s to near 80°.  Friday and Saturday will see the highs near 80°.

5

 

NEXT WEEK: The trough on the west coast that forms this week will begin to move east into the Rockies next weekend.  This will increase the chance of rain and thunderstorms in our area next Sunday-Monday.  We have potential for some heavy rain.

5

 

Before we get to the next stormy set up we do have some great May weather.

MONDAY MORNING:  It will be clear, calm and cool with lows in the 40s.

1

 

TUESDAY: The sun will be back with highs around 70° .  A cold front will be moving south from Canada, but the main thrust will be felt across the Great Lakes.

7

 

WEDNESDAY: The front moves through and our winds switch to the north.  But, our highs will not be affected as we reach around 70° once again.  Highs will be in the 40s across the Great Lakes and notice the big warm up in the northern Rockies where highs reach the 80s.  This is a sign of things to come.

3

 

Have a great week.

Jeff

Cooling for Sunday, then drying out for a few days

What a soggy week! We have made up for the dry, quiet days we had over the last month or so. Check out my latest video blog for details.
By the way, I’d like your feedback on what you’d like to see more/less of in the videos. Tweet me, Facebook me, email me and let me know what you’d like to see. More charts and raw maps? More in-depth talk? Of course, it will depend on what weather we have coming, but I’d like to tailor the videos to suit your needs!

Current Storm Weakening

Good Saturday bloggers,

The current storm system is now in a weakening phase and the rain is decreasing in coverage.  This afternoon will actually be decent with some sun and highs mostly in the 60s.

The last bands of showers and thunderstorms are moving north this morning.  There are a couple of chances for new showers, but most of the main rain is over.

1

 

SATURDAY PM: The surface pattern will be a bit chaotic with surface lows in eastern Kansas and central Missouri.  These will be connected by a trough with cold fronts extending out from the lows.  So, this afternoon if we can see some sun, and highs reach the 60s to near 70° we may see a few new showers and thunderstorms form on the boundaries.  There is no threat of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center, but if some of the thunderstorms can get going, then a few may produce small hail.  There is a remote chance one or two of the new thunderstorms produces quarter sized hail.

2

 

SUNDAY: This will be a cloudy, breezy and cool day with a few showers and sprinkles as the system pulls away.  Highs will be in the 50s.

3

 

MONDAY: There will be a new weak system that could bring a few showers along with lots of clouds.  It will still be a cool day with highs near 60°.

4

 

Tuesday through Friday look nice with highs in the 70s, so we will get a chance to dry out and mow the grass.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

A Wet Start to the Weekend

Good Friday bloggers,

We have had a one day break from the rain as our next storm affects us tonight.  It is amazing that we have gone from, “we sure could use some rain, to when will it stop” in one week.

As of 2:15 PM there was a large area of rain in central and eastern Kansas.  This rain will spread across the area this evening with periods of heavier rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Temperatures will be in the low 50s, so we are in for a cold and wet Friday night.

1

 

RAINFALL FORECAST: This is from the 12z NAM.  It shows the heaviest amounts right up I-35.  This is not set in stone, but all areas will see at least .25″ to 1″ with some locations receiving 1″ to 1.50″.

5

 

SATURDAY: The forecast is tricky.  There will be 2 surface lows, one in central Missouri and the other in eastern Kansas.  The models do not have any new showers and thunderstorms, but if the sun comes out, and highs reach 65-70, then we could see a few thunderstorms form on these boundaries.  If they form, one or two could be severe, even though there is no risk in our area.  If the lows set up further south, then it will be cloudier across the region and not as warm with just a slight chance of new showers and thunderstorms.  So, after the overnight rain ends early Saturday, most of tomorrow has potential to be dry.

2

 

SUNDAY: The storm system will be pulling away allowing low clouds and much cooler air to head south.  There will also be a few rain showers as well.  Highs Sunday will be in the 50s.

3

 

Monday looks cloudy with a chance of light rain as a new system moves in and weakens.  Then, the rest of the week looks much nicer with sunshine and highs in the 70s.  Another wet storm is likely may 8-11.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff