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Our mid-week cool-down may be pushed back…

As expected, we had some clouds develop over the KC Metro area and that has helped to stall our temps. My forecast high for today was 96°, so far we’ve only hit 95°. We may still muster one more degree, but that looks to be about it. This goes to show a little deck of clouds can toy with a forecast!
Either way, if you can tell the difference between 95° and 96°, hat’s off to ya! All I know is: it’s hot.

Out heat advisory continues to be extended day by day. The NWS has now extended the advisory into Monday, as highs will reach the middle 90s and heat index values should top out over 100° yet again.
1 PM

We talked yesterday about a storm system coming in around Wednesday/Thursday and it would cool us down. As feared, it appears this system may get delayed a little bit longer. Latest run of information is really slowing up the system and until it passes through, we’ll continue to cook.

The potential setup for Wednesday is now looking more like this:
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That system will take its sweet time traveling East. By Friday, the latest guidance suggests this is how things may look for us:
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With that said, I feel we *do* still have small chances for hit & miss t-storms that could fire up in the heat of the day. These chances exist almost every afternoon over the next few days. This is what I tend to call the “weather lottery”. Many will hope/wish/beg for the rain, but only a select few may see it. And, it difficult to forecast where until it actually takes off. Basically, weak spots in the atmospheric “cap” are breached and storms bubble up. These are tough to pinpoint in advance (we can generalize them a day or so out), but I wish we could say “town xx and yy will get rain today”. However, it just doesn’t work like that! What I can tell you is that this stuff typically festers in the mid to late afternoon and if you start seeing cumulus clouds with vertical development, you’re on the right path to getting rain.
We’ve seen this happen this evening already.
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I am not expecting much out of this for our area, but perhaps a brief heavy shower passes over a few areas in the Northwest part of our viewing area. The rest of us will stay dry tonight. Keep this kind of thing in mind, because this is what I think we’ll see over the next few days. Nothing widespread or greatly organized, but the hit & miss chances will linger around. They will show up as early as Monday morning thanks to a weak cold front trying to slide through the area. And no, there really isn’t any “cold” air behind this front. That’s why I hesitate to mention it!

I wanted to take a moment to point out the impressive hurricane going on in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, just to the West of Mexico: Hurricane Marie. This thing is incredible. Currently it’s a category 5 storm with winds sustained at 160mph! Here is how it looks on the water vapor imagery:
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This is how it looks on the enhanced infrared satellite. Notice it toward the bottom right of the picture.
MArie1

And this is a close-up view. Pretty impressive.
MArie2

This storm is expected to drift away from North America and stay over sea.
MarieTrack

While the bulk of this storm in no way will come our way, little bits of energy from it may get drawn up by the larger flow in the atmosphere. These little waves may then get pulled into our area. Again, nothing great, but certainly something to watch.

Also you probably heard about the big Earthquake in California this morning. Measured a 6.1 and is the biggest they’ve seen in the San Francisco area in over 25 years. Seismologists say aftershocks are still possible and they could be big ones. What a wild 24 hours in has been in and around North America. Yet for us here at home, it’s just the same ol’ same ol: hot & dry, hoping for a little change.

As always, we will continue to update the forecast as needed. One thing to remember is that we don’t make the weather….we just try to predict what it’s going to do. Not many people are expected to accurately predict the future every single day, but meteorologists are held to that standard. So we give updates and sometimes the forecast changes a bit. But it has to change, because the only thing worse than putting out a wrong forecast is putting out another wrong forecast and knowing you did!

Stay cool and stay safe in the heat.
-JD

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6 comments to Our mid-week cool-down may be pushed back…

  • VerySkeptical

    Thanks for updating us JD. Summer seems like it just arrived. I see our rainfall deficits are growing once again…I know what that means. Another great free blog, much better than the competitors that work for the same station. Where’s Pete at?

  • Hockeynut69

    Here we go again. A great light show to the W/ NW and clear skies with stars above me. I would rather not see the rain so close but yet so far.

  • j-ox

    Quite a bit of lightning and even some distant thunder prior to sunrise here in Lawrence. But, only the slightest film of moisture could be seen in the bottom of my rain gauge = barely/scarcely a trace of precip.

  • Hume-Dude

    This pattern is getting so old. Now the co9ld front that was so obvious last week has gone poof. Rain chances are diminishing more every time I see new data…..really need a good widespread rain. Haven’t had a good rain since 8-6 in my area.