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One Week From The Eclipse

Good morning bloggers,

We are now one week away from the Total Eclipse of the sun that will be tracking across the United States.  Our human brains have a problem in trying to convince ourselves that if you are just outside the total eclipse path, then it will be just about the same as if you are in the total eclipse path.  In other words, if you were in Overland Park, KS and the eclipse was 99.8%, it would be easy to think that it is just about the same as if you were in North Kansas City where totality is reached, or in Liberty, MO where the totality lasts for around 2 minutes.  According to astronomers and what I have  read about it, the difference is huge. Why? The sun is 10,000 times brighter than the moon, so that little sliver of sunlight prevents the stars from being seen, from making it  seem like night for that brief period of time.  It is hard to get our minds around that 0.1% difference. Believe me, I am struggling with it myself.  It will still be fascinating, I am certain of that, but the difference would be worth going a bit farther north into the path of totality.

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Now, meteorology is in play big time.  Will the sky be clear next Monday afternoon? There will likely be spots where clouds affect the viewing experience.  Here is the map we posted 55 days before the eclipse using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis:

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We used knowledge of the cycling pattern to make this prediction and the pattern continues to cycle regularly centered near that 58.5 day range (56-61 days).  Here is the latest GFS model simulated IR satellite forecast.  This does not show well where cumulus clouds will be forming, so we will know a lot more in the next few days:

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We will monitor this closely as we get closer to eclipse day.  As meteorologists and weather forecasters we can make our predictions, and we will do quite well, but to forecast what happens during the two minutes of totality near the center of the eclipse path will be quite difficult in a few spots.  Today, we started with a complete overcast sky in KC. By early next week the pattern will potentially more dominated by a developing anticyclone:

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There is also an easterly wave forecast to be heading into the Gulf of Mexico from the east. Remember, Weather2020 also forecasted that the pattern would be favorable for a developing tropical system in the Gulf around Eclipse Day. The latest European Model has a full blown tropical storm/hurricane in the southern Gulf next week.  Let’s see if this does indeed show up.  It could be a factor, but perhaps just after eclipse day?

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Tropical Storm Gert can be seen way off the east coast by Wednesday morning. And, there is a front approaching from the northwest with thunderstorms over Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas by Wednesday morning. Let’s see how this sets up tonight and tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

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