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Second warmest, and maybe the warmest January day ever recorded!

  • Good afternoon bloggers,

The 2 PM temperature at KCI Airport reached   which is the second highest temperature ever recorded during the month of January. And, this high shattered the previous record on January 28 of 65º set in 1917.   And, it was 76º downtown, which used to be the station of record. So, this is really the warmest January day already!

Warmest January temperatures in Kansas City history:

  • 75º on January 24th, 1950
  • 74º TODAY, January 28, 2013
  • 73º on January 23rd, 1967

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A strong upper level trough is deepening over the Rocky Mountain states and a disturbance is going to try to round the base and head our way tomorrow night. There are still a lot of questions as to what this will do. Right now, it looks like the best chance of thunderstorms is south and east of Kansas City. And, the best chance of snow may be north and west of Kansas City. It doesn’t seem fair does it?  Well, let’s see how this sets up.

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This is the Powercast that I am likely showing on the 4:30. 5, and 6 PM newscasts. I will put it into motion for you . That is pretty significant snow forecasted by our in house model, but it wouldn’t last long. I have low confidence right now.  The latest GFS just doesn’t quite have enough strength in that wave to get me excited about this snow potential. I hope it comes together better than what this model is saying, so let’s hang on for the new data in the next few model runs.

Have a great evening. Let us know what you think.

Gary

 

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63 comments to Second warmest, and maybe the warmest January day ever recorded!

  • sedsinkc

    All time or nearly all time record highs two months in a row. Combine a terrible drought with bouts of historically warm weather in the midst of winter. IF the drought continues on as it is and does not improve by next summer, I can see the potential for Kansas City to have high temperatures approaching all time records then as well. It will depend on the strength, movement, and location of the summer anticyclone. We got off relatively easy last summer at 106 officially, given what temperatures just to our east, south and west did.

  • Theo

    Agree. Easier to heat up and cool down dry air (don’t tell Mike-it’s not really a drought). Also tougher to moisten up the atmosphere when it’s bone dry from the ground to the top of the atmosphere (again-don’t tell Mike).

    • mowermike

      Theo,
      “Agree. Easier to heat up and cool down dry air (don’t tell Mike-it’s not really a drought)”

      Never argued that, so not true at all.

      “Also tougher to moisten up the atmosphere when it’s bone dry from the ground to the top of the atmosphere (again-don’t tell Mike)”

      All I did was refer to the Ohio and Tennessee valley’s plus southern and eastern Mo. The Drought Monitor history proves my argument right against yours. You claim the reason that the storm systems have not produced large amounts of rain in KC is because the soil is so dry. I claim it is rainfall patterns and we have certainly been in an awful one.

      I said that the areas mentioned above were equally dry soil wise as KC was in the Month of August. Over the fall and especially this winter, those same areas have drastically changed. (rainfall patterns)

      So, if your theory that dry soils result in little moisture for storms to produce decent rains/snows, then how did these areas over come that? (I’m not saying that it doesn’t influence amounts from time to time, but the bigger story is where the precip. patterns set-up) It’s a simple question that you have yet to answer. The proof that argues against your thoughts is right there in the maps. Bottom line, these areas had bone dry soils like KC did and have turned the corner big time in the last 6 months.

      These same areas were in an exceptional drought as was KC. Now, they have had rain after rain.

      BTW, I have never said that KC isn’t in a drought. Until you post where I said that, then it can’t be considered true. Just because you say so doesn’t make it so.

      How come you fail to comment when your forecasts go wrong? Turning that blind eye that you claim all of us bloggers do when Gary and team bust a forecast.

      • Why are you so defensive if I may ask?

        • mowermike

          Edward,

          Not defensive, just arguing a point with THEO. Its all good. This goes way back. Its healthy.

          • f00dl3

            Pointing other things out…

            “This Arctic Air Mass, that is currently growing and expanding, will be around for the next five weeks. The weather pattern will become quite favorable for this Arctic air to make it’s way south into the United States, and there is a chance of a true Arctic blast as we move into February.”

            Posted Jan. 15th. Still not seeing it.

  • MikeL

    Meanwhile, the 18z NAM has a 3-6 inch snowfall over NE KS and NW MO for late Tues – early Wed. Not sure that will happen but the wild weather swings continue…

  • Jerry

    I see you’re going for a high of 69 tomorrow (Tuesday) per your forecast in the weather section of kshb.com…do you really think it’ll really get that warm tomorrow, or that it’ll even be that warm at midnight tonight?

    • f00dl3

      Jerry

      Their 7 day forecast is messed up YET AGAIN — the rain moved to WED/THU and the low of 9 is now on Saturday morning. Same problem every day this time in the afternoon.

  • hoeperk2

    Does anyone know on what day in December we set the record high, and if it fits with the 50-55 day cycle?

    • sedsinkc

      It was December 3, or 56 days ago.

    • We did have a record high of 74 on December 3rd. But, this is the part of the weather pattern that came through just after that around December 8th and 9th. We did have a bit of rap around showers.

      GAry

      • sedsinkc

        One reason some lay people may struggle with the LRC concept is because they may sometimes tend to look for similarities in the sensible weather over time as a way to recognize cycles, but the cyclicity is actually recognized by looking at upper air patterns over time. Similar upper air patterns do not necessarily result in similar surface weather conditions on any given day. It could, but it might not. Conversely, similar surface conditions can occur under different upper air patterns. Might this contribute to the difficulties of using the LRC as a long-range forecasting tool?

        • Jerry

          If your post is to be taken at face value, it essentially admits the ‘theory’ is meaningless for weather on the ground – where we live.

          • sedsinkc

            I have my doubts about the LRC and its usefulness. I am not fully on the bandwagon. The theory has a lot of problems, imo, one of which is its problems with forecasting the weather on the ground.

            • I would have to agree with all of the above. I would have to agree that there is some type of weather pattern in the upper air flow but how that translates to the weather on the ground I don’t think applies. There are way to many variables in my opinion to be accurate in forecasting more then a few days out. There are exceptions like the middle of summer when you have weeks at a time at 95 degrees even then showers then showers pop up out of nowhere at times. I think there needs to be a lot more research on the subject by many different scientist and mets. I wonder if Gary has ever applied for a research grant?

              • Edward,

                It does apply to the sensible weather at the surface. But, just because it sets up similar in the upper levels of the atmosphere, doesn’t mean it will at the surface. There are seasonal variations, and other factors. But, you can make an accurate forecast 50 days ahead, just like you would a forecast seven days from now.

                Gary

            • Indeed, using the theory to predict surface conditions takes more ingenuity than just the core rules. Follow along long enough and the cyclic nature of the atmosphere will begin to stand out. I am currently putting the core rules to the test in the Midwest. Blend of all cycles to produce a temperature, precipitation, and wind trend. There have been some losses, but many more wins.

              http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/
              http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory/trends/

  • I’m curious as to how you say you can accurately make a forecast 6 weeks in advance when it seems hard to get 3 days from now correct? I mean the forecast for today was for a high of 66 and we are going to hit close to 10 degrees above that. It reminds me of those days in the old west where guys sold medicine oil and stuff from covered wagon claiming it would cure you.

    • sedsinkc

      Today’s forecast was a challenge due to the additional moisture in the air which could have resulted in extensive cloud cover. The clouds cleared at the optimal time today to allow maximum warming, which is why temperatures skyrocketed so high. If it had been mostly cloudy all day, which could have happened, it would have stayed in the mid 60s.

    • Our foreast for today was 69. And, Jeff is mad at himself for not going for the 70s. His forecast was four degrees above the record. I would say that’s pretty good, even though we were five degrees off, at least.

  • Craig

    Forecast Discussion from the Topeka NWS a/o 3:00 pm:

    FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES…HAVE SOME INCREASING CONCERNS FOR THE
    POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE MORNING. CAPE VALUES REMAIN
    ON THE LOW SIDE…WITH GENERALLY 500-700 J/KG FROM THE NE CORNER
    EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOPEKA AND INTO COFFEY COUNTY BY
    SUNRISE…WITH INCREASING VALUES TO THE EAST. HODOGRAPHS IN THE
    LOWEST LEVELS HAVE QUITE A BIT OF TURN TO THEM WITH 250-300MPS OF
    HELICITY. SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6 OR 1-6 KM LAYERS INCREASE TO
    40-60KTS BY 12Z. LACKING A BOUNDARY OR A STRONG SOURCE OF
    LIFT…BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT APPEAR TO BE WEAK EMBEDDED
    SHORTWAVES IN THE PANHANDLES AND BACK SW OVER THE SW US…AND ALSO
    OF WHAT MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO THIS
    ENVIRONMENT. CAPE IS LOW FOR HAIL…BUT COULD SUSTAIN AN UPDRAFT
    FOR LOW END SEVERE SIZE. BIGGER CONCERNS WILL BE MIXING DOWN OF
    STRONGER WINDS ALOFT…AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
    THREAT. THIS AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
    ANTICIPATE THREAT TO BE RELEGATED TO THE PREDAWN TO LATE MORNING
    HOURS.

  • plowboy87

    What’s the models saying for snow?

  • McCabe58

    This weather today made everyone ready for spring, me included. I’m usually a snow lover, but dang these past two winters have sucked! I’d love to chase this year for the first time ever. Anyone with experience need a rookies help? Lol

  • RickMckc

    I know we are in a drought but the golf course was very wet today.

    KC weather – golfing on Jan 28th followed by snow 48 hours later!

  • trinlivco

    I could care less what the forcast says. I hope the Chillicothe area gets hammered with lots of rain. I would even take 6″of snow. I hate, I repeat hate this dry weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TR

  • Kole Christian

    The models are giving us about a dusting of snow Tuesday night. At this juncture I am more interested in the possibility of severe weather.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

    for those interested

    • SnowComando

      What’s happening is this: A couple of weeks ago after the predicted 2-3 inch snowfall became a non-event, I removed all my plows and spreaders off the trucks and put them back in storage! This seems to never fail! If you want snow, never, and I mean never prepare for it, ignore all weather bulletin’s, just act like its going to miss us…..and BINGO …. it will snow.

  • Kcchamps

    from the latest NWS forecast Discussion:

    The potential for accumulating snow is well supported by
    the models, with totals of one to two inches across north central to
    northeast Missouri Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and a dusting of
    snow as far south as the Missouri River. However, this part of the
    forecast could change significantly over the next 24 hours as the
    event nears and numerical model solutions better resolve the thermal
    profiles.

  • Emaw

    F00dl3 , If you take that statement word for word, it is completely accurate as the upper Midwest thru the great lakes into the northeast has been in the deep freeze much of the last 2 weeks. You notice nowhere in that statement any reference to KC, but if it were to reach KC it could also be claimed as accurate. Are you catching my drift?

    • f00dl3

      So Gary could say that last winter was going to be the coldest winter on record in the United States, and he would have been correct since it was the coldest on record in Alaska. Gotcha.

  • sedsinkc

    A litle fodder for the blog…latest snowfall forecast maps from 18z NAM
    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
    and GFS
    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • Dobber

    Seds what’s it saying?

  • sedsinkc

    Not that I believe the forecasts from those links I provided, but:

    NAM has about 1 inch of snow in KC and Topeka, less than 1 inch on the south side, 2 inches around Platte City, 4 inches around St. Joe, and 6 inches plus from NE of Manhattan, KS to just NW of Maryville, Mo.

    Meanwhile, GFS has less than 1 inch KC and south, about 1 inch in Topeka, 2 to 3 inches in St. Joe, and 3 to 4 inches around Maryville to around 6 inches near Lamoni, Iowa.

  • plowboy87

    I did the same thing snowcomando just unloaded salt from my truck and washed it on Saturday.

  • mgsports

    NOAA says 61 for Overland Park tomorrow. I know we didn’t get a say but Weather Action Plus needs to stay even if it goes to 41.3 and shares with Local News when Cozi TV goes live on 41.2.

  • Kole Christian

    Sedsinkc,

    If I remember correctly the NAM over does the precipitation a lot of times. But considering both models are pretty close, I’d say maybe a dusting. We’re going to have to cool down a lot if we want it to snow tomorrow night.

    • The NAM has a small snowstorm here early Wednesday. We have had this type of storm already this season, and once again, it will depend on the orientation of the upper level wave. We should get a good idea by tomorrow.

      Gary

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM looks better for SNOW for the metro :) looks like the best place for accumulating snow will be I-70 northward

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013012900&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039″

    latest NAM shows maybe 1-2″ for the metro and more further north

  • Kcchamps

    will be interesting to see what the overnight model runs say

  • Kole Christian

    Thanks for the response Gary. It looks like according to Kcchamps last post that the models are trending closer to your in house model. It would be pretty interesting meteorlogical wise if we get severe weather in the morning then snow tomorrow. Wouldn’t be the first time for us Missourians!

    • Kole,

      I may try to make a snowfall accumulation forecast chart at 10 PM. I am going to decide in a few minutes. But, I will certainly be showing our new in house model in a few minutes.

  • TRuch2012

    In my own opinion it feels like a repeat of last years winter. Once you look at the long ranger/ or the 10 day forcast it really feels like winter has not been here the past two years. We are getting snow but nothing like the winter of 2009-2010. For me this is a good thing I hate snow, well winter period. I like spring and summer and the storms that come with it.

  • Skylar

    Regardless of snow, both models have been showing KC with at least .5″ of moisture for a few runs now. I know the way things have been going this year would make it seem like this will probably be a bust, but maybe this one will be one of the few storms that busts in our favor? This is definitely wishcasting, but I say KC gets a quick band of heavy rain and thunderstorms tomorrow morning, with 2-3″ of snow later on. :)

  • Weatherman Kumke

    More wishcasting. Hell, A tornado with tonight’s set up is more likely than us getting anything more than a few flakes or dusting for Tomorrow night into Wednesday. Now watch as all the butthurt snowgeeks cry and post every model run and think that it’s gonna happen when it won’t. We will get JACK SQUAT!

  • McCabe58

    Kumke give it a rest man. Your rude posts won’t stop the snow from coming brah

  • thunderstorm in Olathe! Pouring rain..what a strange sound

  • Weatherman Kumke

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0065.html”

    Once again. Not being rude. Stating Facts