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One Main Rain Chance

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking a weak system today that will bring clouds and a few showers. Then, a cold front and system move through Monday-Tuesday. These features will generate showers and thunderstorms, but I am sure you can guess the most likely scenario.

Let’s take a look at how the drought has evolved since May 1st.

The drought on May 1st was quite significant from southwest Kansas and points to the southwest. We were abnormally dry to moderate drought, but nothing a good rain or two couldn’t wipe out.

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Well, here we sit in early August and we are still waiting for that good rain or two, so now look at the drought. It is quite interesting. The drought has vanished from the southwest Plains as there has been many rounds of great rain during the last couple of months. Our drought has really intensified. There are two odd things about this drought. One, is that even though the drought has become more intense, it really has not expanded much. Usually droughts intensify and expand. Second, the exceptional drought in the southwest Plains has ended. Usually when a drought ends there during the summer, we are not in a drought. And, especially when there is no drought to the east. This is a regional drought that is getting worse, again odd.

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We have one main rain chance the next 7 days, and that occurs Monday into Tuesday. Let’s go through the forecast today through Tuesday. There is some heat in there as well.

SATURDAY: A weak disturbance will bring high and mid level clouds along with a few showers and possibly one or two small thunderstorms. Rainfall will be trace to 0.10″. Temperatures will drop to the upper 70s and low 80s if you receive a shower, otherwise highs will reach around 90°.

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SUNDAY: The heat will intensify as highs climb into the mid and possibly upper 90s. The humidity will increase as well, but at least there will be a breeze to take the edge off. The front in Nebraska will start to move south Sunday night.

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MONDAY: This looks like the hottest day of the week, out ahead of the front. Highs will reach 95° to 100° with a decent amount of humidity. There will be less wind as well.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Here we go again. The cold front is moving south and it looks like the best chance of widespread rain will be across western Kansas and Illinois. Tuesday will see the thunderstorms increase across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri while our region is left with a smattering of rain. Yes, smattering is the new term until we can see evidence of a major rain event.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY: This is pretty much a visual representation of the term smattering. A few locations will see 0.25″ to 2″ while most will see none to 0.25″. The exact locations of the 0.25″ to 2″ rainfall is still not set in stone, but the bottom line, it is a smattering.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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