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One Day at a Time

Good Sunday bloggers,

The forecast the next several days is not easy and it will be wise on our part to take the forecast one day at a time.  Let’s start with today.

SUNDAY: It has started with 100% sunshine, but clouds will increase as weak disturbances come in from the northwest.  There may be a few showers and sprinkles from Kansas City south and west.  So, weather conditions will vary from northeast to southwest across the region, making for a tough forecast.

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MONDAY: This is where the forecast becomes quite challenging.  A disturbance or two will be tracking in from the northwest.  These disturbances will likely generate areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Every new run of data from every model is showing something different for Monday.  This is important, because if you are in rain during the day tomorrow, your temperature will drop to the 50s and low 60s.  Since, there is little to no consensus in the data on where, when and how extensive the rain will be, makes it hard to make a confident forecast.  Below is just the latest run of our RPM model.  You can see it is 66° in KC with 50s to the north in the rain at noon Monday.  The run before this had rain along I-70 and KC in the 50s.  So, it will be a now-casting forecast Monday.

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The next complex forecast item after tomorrow is the chances of thunderstorms, MCS activity, Wednesday through Saturday or Sunday.  It is looking like an active pattern, but here again, there is little consensus on timing and location of the thunderstorm activity.  The most likely scenario is that the thunderstorms form in the high plains during the afternoon and they roll into our region later at night or into the following morning.  Since, there are multiple chances of rain there will be some locations that receive heavy rain the next seven days.  Again, there is little consensus on where the heaviest rainfall totals will occur.  Below is the rainfall totals through July 2nd as forecast by the 6Z GFS.  Yes, that is a 4″-7″ bulls eye along I-70.  If you look close amounts range from 0.78″ in Iola to 6.46″ in Lawrence.  So, this is not even close to be set in stone.  The bottom line is that we have to take the forecast one day at a time.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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