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On The Edge Again

Good morning bloggers,

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While Pennsylvania goes under water with major flooding, the southwest is sizzling with record highs. Phoenix was 115 degrees yesterday and Tucson was 109, both records. The high of 94° in downtown Los Angeles was also a record as the drought continues over the southwest.  In the heartland, well, we are on the edge again.

NAM MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST ENDING FRIDAY MORNING:

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GFS MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST ENDING FRIDAY MORNING:

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The best chance is later tonight into Thursday morning, and most of the models are keeping the access of the rain west of KC.  This means that the least likely area to have any rain at all is in the driest areas northeast of KC.  There is another chance Saturday into Sunday. This second chance  is also targeting areas west and southwest of KC.  Let’s see how it sets up.

The jet stream will be reaching its weakest average strength in the next two weeks.  We are now 100% in the 2017-2018 LRC year. Once the jet stream begins strengthening in mid-August, this is when we begin a slow transition into next years LRC.  By the end of August, we are likely around 95% old LRC and 5% new LRC.  By the end of September we are likely around 75% old LRC and 25% new LRC. And, by the tenth of October it completely flips over and we are then nearly 100% into the new pattern.  The sun setting at the North Pole likely triggers waves of energy that sweep across the Northern Hemisphere, and then by the time it is dark at the North Pole, then the new LRC truly begins, around October 5, 6, or 7 each year.   We just have to hang on for another few weeks.

This cooler summer weather fits the LRC perfectly and it should last another week or two before we have a good chance of one or two more heat waves.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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