Good afternoon bloggers,
There is a well defined circulation and wave moving across the Nebraska/Kansas border near Hiawatha, KS. It is becoming increasingly obvious that thunderstorms will be confined to this circulation and if this is the case we will again get missed by the thunderstorm activity. The only spots likely to be affected will be north of St. Joseph. When you have a wave aloft, like this one, a small scale comma head will develop and this is what we are seeing right now in the spin of showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. There will be other areas of lifting and if you just think about the structure of a wave of this type, then I would expect any other thunderstorm activity to form east of Kansas City later today.
There is a weak front associated with this system and the convergence near this front/wind shift line may be able to also produce some thunderstorms, but I am concerned that there will be sinking air near Kansas City and we could be left dry again. I hope I am wrong.
We will be monitoring this closely.
Gary
Such a big suprise
The LRC has become the “Lack of Rain Cycle”.
I hate this freaking weather pattern , I’m done watching the weather including u too Gary
I was hoping you wouldn’t blame it on me.
Thanks for keeping us up-dated, Jeff and Gary. It will rain again, but maybe not soon enough for all of us. Things could be so much worse…my family, (immediate and extended) lived through the Greensburg and Joplin tornadoes. If lack of rain for a while is all that we have to deal with, I can handle that.
We appreciate your knowledge and efforts.
My conclusion posted on the earlier blog was correct although the reasoning behind the conclusion was somewhat flawed. But no rain is no rain. This almost guarantees that most if not all of KC metro will be placed in moderate drought status within 1-2 weeks, esp. given the long-range forecast.
On radar you can kind of see the “line” demarcating where thunderstorms may form later this afternoon from where they won’t. That line is over the eastern and SE side of the city. So the far E and SE parts of town still have a “chance” of something developing this afternoon. But for the west and NW side you can pretty much forget it.
Not blaming you G , sorry that sounded like I was . Just fed up…. Why is it that every complex turns southeast except when there nw of us.
Kind of reminds me of 2007 when there was rain all around us and it was extremely dry in the metro that summer.
I’m still hoping for a line to build back south and west….
Looks like it is building back west and kinda dropping south too.
So if you say 70% chance of rain on Friday web forecast but then say 50% chance of rain on Saturday web forecast, which one is rated by weather rate?
Depends on if it rains or not.
The 70% chance actually verified. It rained.
Hey Gary, draw a circle around KC and then show a time lapse of the last several disturbances. Would look like we have a mini high pressure ridge right over us!
And pooooooof goes our chances … WOW !!!!
A few showers starting to show in Johnson County that will move NE toward Jackson County.
The metro area has been in a drought for 12-14 months. Yes we have had a few wet storms mixed in, but I would bet we are still well below average. The next 3-4 months will be very hard on all of us.
You don,t know diddly squat!!! Thanks for stopping by KSHB weather blog.
You are such a smooth operator tushy. Is that your mommy I hear calling you for dinner?
Impressive how each event finds a way to miss us. The MCV went north today and gave good rains along the MO/Iowa border.
Heat wave on the way!!
I kind of wonder why they call anything beyond 12 hours out a forecast. Seems to me they should just get over themselves and call it a guess.
Dictionary defines “forecasting as – to predict (a future condition or occurrence), to conjecture beforehand; make a prediction.
But it seems to me that there should also be some relative form of accuracy of such statements and I mean definitely greater than a 30% accuracy. You take any meteorologists forecast beyond 12 hours and as of late, they are rarely right or even close beyond 12 hours.
This is why I say, if you want a professional job where accuracy is not that high of a priority, meteorology is the place to be.
the weather team needs to acknowledge that they have flat out blown 10-15 strong rain chance forecasts this spring. To be fair, other weather teams in the metro have done the same. There is obviously no way to predict warm weather thunderstorms in advance of say 6-12 hours, slightly better than looking out my window.
I agree, but do you think they are going to say ” well we were wrong again for the 15th time ” Its extremely difficult to predict the future so there is no shame in being wrong. But they cant blow there perception of being accurate.
Hey Gary and staff, Since around 2:20PM, there have been some interesting responses on the blog…is there no one available to answer the comments?
Just asking.
They are probably to busy enjoying this wonderful day.
I guess your done playing with yourself.We hadn,t heard from you lately.
Wow tushy that’s a low blow buddy
Sorry the rain didn’t work out for us again. Iam thankful we got 1.93″ of rain last Monday here!
MD Discussion for Southwestern part of Metro.
dont see it? Hope we get rain!
Poor poor farmers… Gonna be one of the hottest summers we’ve ever had here. Get ready for it everyone!!!
poor farmers are a thing of the past! They live better than anyone I know! Its a dirty little secret but they do just fine compared to the rest of us that work sun up to sun down, dont kid yourself honey. and yes I have a farm back ground and live in farm country. misery is relative, get ready for the complaints after this post
What? You are such a rube for even saying that.
Really?!?! You make this statement without any facts to back it up. You “know” someone eh? Small family farms are struggling. Fuel prices, fertilizer prices, and every thing else that has gone up has made making a decent profit almost impossible.
Lack of rain is having a direct impact on the small rancher/farmer. Pastures are drying up and hay is still scarce. Already up to $6 a bale in my area and will be higher going into the summer if rain does not come. Beans and corn are stressed – pastures are brown.
Large corportions are more of the norm now in farming. But that has a direct cost to the consumer in terms of health and lack of variety of foods not to mention the inhumne treatment of animals meant for our food. Feedlots, cramped hens for eggs, and GMOs are all negatives in our food chain.
I offer grass fed lamb, fresh free range eggs, fresh fruits and vegetables. Profits are not very large so we also have day jobs to support the farm. However, I continue to offer the small amount of healthy foods to the knowledgeable consumer on the benefits of slow grown foods. Each dozen eggs I sell or market lamb purchased is one less dollar going to BIG business.
Lack of rain cuts into those profits greatly since more hay needs to be fed and grain prices will only increase if there is not enough grains produced. Rain or lack there-of creates a domino effect which will correlate to higher prices again for you. So go ahead and bash the farmer if it makes you feel better.
Garden City/Creighton Missed again. Not a drop. Just one storm in the last month.