Good afternoon bloggers,
There is a well defined circulation and wave moving across the Nebraska/Kansas border near Hiawatha, KS. It is becoming increasingly obvious that thunderstorms will be confined to this circulation and if this is the case we will again get missed by the thunderstorm activity. The only spots likely to be affected will be north of St. Joseph. When you have a wave aloft, like this one, a small scale comma head will develop and this is what we are seeing right now in the spin of showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. There will be other areas of lifting and if you just think about the structure of a wave of this type, then I would expect any other thunderstorm activity to form east of Kansas City later today.
There is a weak front associated with this system and the convergence near this front/wind shift line may be able to also produce some thunderstorms, but I am concerned that there will be sinking air near Kansas City and we could be left dry again. I hope I am wrong.
We will be monitoring this closely.