Quantcast

Winter Weather Advisory…Light Snow Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service downgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory!  The first band of precipitation is moving in as the temperatures begin to warm up. There will likely be a small icing event before the temperatures rise above freezing, so be careful early this morning as this band of light freezing rain moves through. The temperatures will likely rise above freezing and then we will have some rain later this morning into this afternoon.

Weather Timeline:

  • Now-10 AM: Freezing light rain showers with temperatures rising to 32° or higher.
  • 10 AM-6 PM:  Cloudy with a few periods of light to moderate rain.  Temperatures warming to near 40°
  • Tonight: Rain changing to light snow with minor accumulations expected.  A dusting to 2″ will be possible.  Low:  25°  Some slick spots will develop with the colder air moving in later tonight.

Weather Summary:

The lead disturbance produced a band of freezing rain this morning. This resulted in some icing of elevated surfaces, but temperatures will be rising above freezing ending the icing threat by noon:

1

 

Above freezing temperatures are steadily moving north and this will end the early morning icing event soon. And, then the question will be when will any rain changeover to snow?  I think that conditions will become favorable for snow this evening and 1 to 2 inches may fall, and this would finally end the snowflake contest.  There is enough of a circulation at the important 850 mb level, as you can see below:

3

 

This map, above, shows the 850 mb flow at midnight tonight. An 850 mb circulation center, not that strong but likely strong enough, is forecast to develop just south of Kansas City. New areas of snow will likely form this evening and an inch or two seems likely.  We will be monitoring this closely today.

I will update the blog by 6:30 PM or earlier if I find the time, so check back in.  Have a great day!

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

86 comments to Winter Weather Advisory…Light Snow Tonight

  • MikeL

    Temps already at or above freezing in Topeka and parts of eastern Kansas. Warm air wins out this morning on the Kansas side anyway. Nice weather ahead this week and nothing much in the way of snowfall showing up on the 00z and 06z GFS the next 16 days. Enjoy!

    • Snow in many places, but not KC. We just aren’t in the right spot and it is a concern. Let’s see what happens today. Temperatures will be rising above freezing and it could be a challenge to get it to change to snow this evening. I will be blogging about it soon.

    • AW

      While 41 action weather is telling me only a dusting for us up in Leavenworth Ks, the Euro model, the Weather Channel, Accuweather,and Weather Underground are saying either 1-3 inches or 2-4 inches. I’m personally hoping for the 2-4 inch to be correct. I only bring this up because these sites have been calling this storm for days where as Gary Lezak has only been talking about this storm for a day or two. As for the Christmas Storm, I believe we’ll get a good 3-4 inches around next Thursday, Friday, or Saturday… or so my sources tell me.

      • KUweatherman

        Just here to say that isn’t true. The storm has been talked about on the blog for quite awhile longer than a day or two.

        • AW

          Well, I mean this specific day. And besides, yesterday he only gave this a 30 percent chance because he said it would go east of KC

      • WeatherorNot

        That would be incorrect. Gary has mentioned that we need to watch this storm as early as Monday and it was talked about even before that in this blog. One thing he has done however is stick with a forecast of an inch or two at best.

  • craigmac

    I was hoping for a good snow before Christmas. I am sure it will snow while we are out of town after Christmas and my children (and I) will miss it.

  • mukustink

    Imagine that LOL!! The contest lives on and on and on and on…

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Light rain falling in Paola right now. From the look of the radar, this is just a brief little blip of moisture for now with more on it’s way.

  • Pete Capone

    29.7 degrees in south JOCO. Roads are a mess with ice. Be careful walking on your driveway, it could be a sheet of ice.

  • mukustink

    The NAM would like an apology for being called a liar lol.

    • f00dl3

      LOL. I’ve always believed that American models handle American forecasts better since they re designed for our part of the globe. Europeans already did enough damage bringing the Beatles over – though truth be told, they were an awesome band!

  • Coach83

    Isn’t this the same weather pattern we experienced late spring thru summer?

  • KUweatherman

    It can snow in Cairo, Egypt…but not Kansas City.

    “http://i.imgur.com/yMqg2gl.jpg”

  • Stedman

    Out in Eudora, my subdivision is an ice rink. After a block or two I turned back around to head home. Hope it warms up soon.

  • WeatherorNot

    KMBZ’s reporting partner is sticking with 2-4 inches of snow around the 435 loop with upwards of 6 inches to the east. This was their live report this morning so somebody is going to have a busted forecast for sure.

  • marpack521

    Raymore Missouri, Wet roads, freezing in untreated places, trees are ice covered.

  • Skylar

    Anybody who says this is minor event is naive. There are accidents all over the place down here in southern JoCo with some roads completely iced over. Be careful outside.

    • PaolaWeatherNewbie

      Yup, there was an accident just down the road from me a few minutes ago. Sirens were going like crazy! Hoping everything is okay with whoever it is. Be careful everyone!! Stay safe!

      I decide to wait until this afternoon to run my errands. Hopefully it will warm up enough to get rid of the icy glaze.

    • The0

      How did it go poof? Who said it was going to snow a bunch? The NWS last night? Then yes, according to them going from 3-6 or more to 1-2 would be a poof. Is that how you are measuring the “poof” or is it that the snow lovers want snow and it looks like less, so that’s the “poof”? Just curious

  • WeatherorNot

    You can attribute most of the accidents to people that just do not pay attention to the weather, news, road conditions, etc. I knew what to expect and paid attention. I took it slow around the neighborhood, and even took it easy as I approached stop lights on the way to work.

    Meanwhile, everyone around me felt the need to go at or above the posted speed limit and follow each other as close as they do any other day.

    A lot of the issues can be avoided if people would simply use their head! Take the video footage from early this week up in Wisconsin where they had a 40 car pile up. People driving over their heads thinking “well, the speedlimit is 65 SO I HAVE TO DRIVE 65!!!”

    • hippygoth

      “well, the speedlimit is 65 SO I HAVE TO DRIVE 65!!!”

      I’ve noticed on the highways it’s usually a case of, crap weather = 80mph, 5 cars attached bumper to bumper with a random smidge of eating, texting, drinking & cell phone talking (or any combination)

      H.

    • Weatherfreak01

      I agree and disagree. While a lot of people do drive too fast for the road conditions not all accidents are caused by that. This morning my daughter, along with at least 7 other cars, got into an accident because of ice. Many people involved in the pile up near Longview college were only going 10 mph. Truthfully from what she told me, I don’t know how she could have avoided it. I have been driving in adverse conditions, and everything is fine and dandy, until it was not. On my way to work last year I almost hit two cars, but I managed to slide between them (they were spun out and sideways in the road). I was driving slowly and cautiously, I was just lucky. One of the cars spun out that day was a semi with a trailer. If the road is full of ice, it does not matter if you are going fast, slow, have a heavy car or a light car. If ice is going to get you, it is going to get you.

  • Jerry

    “https://twitter.com/KaleeDionne/status/411496805881237504″

  • Andrea S-D

    I’m glad I pay attention to these things, too. My North Waldo neighborhood has some very slick sidewalks this morning. The sidewalks almost seemed worse than the streets a little bit ago when I was out walking my dog. I expect there will be (and likely have been already) several accidents all over the metro; I hope they are just fender-benders and no one is hurt. We took it slow and I wore my yaktracks and was just fine. I spread pet-friendly ice melt as soon as I got back to the house, though. I hope people pay attention and use their heads as they get out—it’s not just streets but also sidewalks and parking lots that will be hazardous today and tonight.

  • Pete Capone

    32.1 degrees in south JOCO. Let the melt begin!

  • chiefs

    really bad drive in from south lee’s summit to I-70 and noland rd saw 10 cars off the road and 1 flipped over on 291 minor iceing event my tail

  • Hockeynut69

    Why do news stations put their own people’s lives in dangerous situations only to sensationalize a story? I fear one of these days we will see a reporter killed while they are out driving in the conditions. I know they are not the ones driving but if others are wrecking, they are not immune to it or getting hit by someone else. Here’s a news flash, we know the roads suck. That is why there are scout cameras. That is why we have other means of getting the reports through tweets, police radios etc. It is just plain stupid and adds no value.

    • anshad

      I agree with you 100%. We will believe you if you are in the newsroom… Standing out in the cold, ice, and snow really makes it no more believable…

      Hopefully this melts quickly, and we can all continue on with our Friday.

      Here’s to hoping for a few inches of snow, but its not looking good.

  • anshad

    New value statement after the KSHB van sliding incident… pic.twitter.com/1BKOFve175

  • MrsBDubs

    Is there anywhere on the site where you can find who entered what date for the snowflake contest? I know I put sometime this week or next week but I can’t remember what exact date I put!

  • BigSteve

    My drive to work through Midtown was uneventful. The wooden steps off my porch were very slick, but the roads were not too bad, I think because there’s still a lot of salt that hasn’t washed off yet from the previous snow scares. Even the bridge across Brush Creek did not seem icy at all. And this is the true miracle — drivers seemed to be taking it extra slow just in case.

  • stormstalker

    I live near the airport and work in the Raymore area. It was an ice rink as soon as I hit Grandview on 71 highway. There were cars sliding off into ditches for miles. It doesn’t look treacherous at all, but it is very slick! Be careful.

  • jjoel

    Some other stations saying 3″ snow tonight. Will be interested who is more accurate.

    • We have to go through this every time, don’t we.

      Anyway, the new GFS just came out and barely shows an inch of snow. It looks like the NAM may end up winning on this storm from days out. Every model must be considered.

      We will track it for you through the day.

      Gary

  • Jerry

    Lee’s Summit Schools ‏@LSR7 37m
    UPDATE: We are releasing middle school and high school students TWO HOURS EARLY today due to inclement weather.

  • erock89

    Gary,

    I feel like I’ve seen storms like this before, where its forecasted to be a minor event and the cutoff line of rain and snow is slim. Yet when the snow arrives it spins around, stalls over us and dumps more snow than was expected. Do you see a chance of this happening? I am a newbie at all of this so correct me if I am wrong.

  • mukustink

    Just drove from northland to leawood with no problems fyi.

  • kellyinLS

    We had a nice sheet of ice on everything in Lees Summit this morning. They shut down the elementary schools and preschools. I may have let the cat out onto the deck just to see how she fared at ice skating :)

  • f00dl3

    If you buy the RAP we may not get much snow until after 3 AM.

  • Weatherfreak01

    The daughter got into a fender bender this morning trying to go to Longview College for a final. She counted at least 7 other cars involved in accidents or spun out where she was. The Lee’s Summit police are so swamped that they told me that if nobody was hurt to have the car towed and come in Monday to file a report.

    • Andrea S-D

      I’m glad your daughter wasn’t hurt. Hope no one in those other cars was, either.

      • Weatherfreak01

        Thanks Andrea,
        The husband who went to help her (since I could not get out of my driveway, it was full of ice) did not say anything about rescue units being there. So I am guessing that nobody was hurt. The daughter’s teacher called the house and told her to not worry about the final. That she understood that there were extenuating circumstances. I thought that was a real nice and classy thing to do.

  • the sun is trying to come out here in Olathe! Crazy

  • stjoeattorney

    ONE BAND a very lite glaze on windshields.

  • stjoeattorney

    Wehere is the atual low, i see ythe feich of moisture but no rotation out west in satelite movie?

  • Greenstein

    I’m certainly no expert, far from it, but from my novice opinion, unless more precipitation develops to the south and west, I don’t see how the metro has more than sprinkles as best from here on out based on the radar.

    I’m well aware that the radar is simply a point in time, and even a 3 hour historical loop isn’t a forecasting tool. I just think the combination of the warm temps, quick moving flow, current and radar loop, etc…I doubt we see much more of anything.

    As someone that enjoys snow, it would have been nice to get our first “real” snow of the year, but I also understand there was really no major potential for anything meaningful from this.

    • Jeff

      You sir are a troll.

      Is this considered negativity? I say get rid of him. Can’t have this kind of negativity on this blog. Agree with Gary or get removed.

      On a serious note: why are some school districts releasing students early when the changeover is not expect until well after the students get home? Do they know something we don’t?

      • Greenstein

        Jeff,
        Good morning. I’m certainly hoping you are being sarcastic and if so, your point is well taken on the negativity of this board. However, if you aren’t being sarcastic, I can assure you I’m far from a troll.

        My “opinion” had nothing to do with negativity or trying to call out the KSHB forecast as invalid or wrong. I come here for updated weather information and insight, not to trash the opinion’s of others.

        Again, I hope this is simply a sarcastic remark and we’ll move forward, but if not, I can see why others that simply come here for weather information and to post opinions about the forecast don’t like to come here anymore and the experience is ruined.

        Have a good afternoon.

    • BigSteve

      You may be right, Greenstein. Please ignore ‘Jeff.’ He’s obviously got issues.

  • f00dl3

    Actually take that back – 15z RAP shows precip blowing up over the southwestern metro area at +18 hrs (3 AM) – but temps are STILL above freezing except near KCI and northwest!

  • f00dl3

    More problematic is the fact that both the ECMWF and GFS long range forecasts show a low developing over South Dakota, and then lifting up into southern MN around the 19/20th – due to this low developing so far north, our snow potential for the 19/20/21st timeframe is moot because much like the storm last week, a secondary low will form south of here and pull all the moisture along I-44 again. In fact, looking at the ECMWF and GFS, it looks identical.

    In other words, we probably won’t get snow next weekend, we will miss out on the core of the Arctic air again while southern MO gets colder than we do – (we probably won’t drop below 0 without snow pack,) and again southern MO could see 6+” of snow on top of significant ice in the same places that saw the major winter storm last week.

    In fact, GFS paints out 1-4″ of QPF along I-44 & south of St. Louis from this major winter storm next weekend.

    • MikeL

      I think the scenario you describe is highly likely since we experienced pretty much the same scenario at the beginning of this month. Doesn’t look real promising for any major snowstorms through December if that verifies.

  • Blizzard365

    Why does everyone has to bitch and moan constantly on here? If you guys all think the LRC and Gary’s forecasts suck, why do you keep coming back here? That’s like going to a restaurant, thinking it sucks, then eating there over and over again, and complaining to management every time! There are several other KC weather blogs, why don’t you guys go bark up their tree?

    • Jeff

      Technically, all you did in your last post was complain. Therefore, you are no better than anyone else. I complain about trolls and the LRC. You complain about people like me. Apples to apples.

    • VerySkeptical

      Hey if you do not like posts just ignore them

  • dudelove

    As a person who loves snow, this stinks. As a person who has to drive through the snow, it’s great we might miss it again.

    On a side note, Gary usually mentions the snowfall contest when there is potential bad weather on the way, when he’s on 810 am, but he hasn’t mentioned it for a while (nor some of the broadcasts I’ve watched on my DVR…Gary’s suits are enough for me to watch). Does this mean someone has won it (can’t see how that could have happened) or is it still going on?

  • VerySkeptical

    Looks like a non-snowy event. Maybe next time snow lovers. Christmas week possibly…whether it is here or not, but regionally it could be per LRC.

  • OlatheMatt

    Sooner or later one of these storms is going to nail us. We are due for a big ice storm and already now this year we have had two minor ice events. Maybe a sign of something coming? Seems like all of a sudden the weather patterns and storms systems are coming through in earnest.

  • stl78

    I believe a jack squat is in order!. I thought the contest would end. Looks as though I Will b wrong. It figures too. It’s the first wknd I don’t have to travel. If I was on the road there would b an ice storm.

  • OlatheMatt

    I think it will barely end tonight. Maybe an inch and a half.

  • RickMckc

    Kudos to Gary and team for not jumping on the heavy snow bandwagon yesterday.

  • GreenwoodMO22

    Rain total here so far .28″

  • yewtrees

    The NWS has updated its forecast saying the Kansas City area could receive between 1/2 to 1 inch of snow from the storm. Warmer air combined with the storm taking a track that is slightly further south has pushed the highest snow amounts into the eastern half of Missouri.

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • f00dl3

    Convection is forming. Let’s see what happens.

  • VerySkeptical

    The outlier (NAM) was correct the whole time. Props to KSHB for not rushing to be the first to post snow totals. JD was did a great job last night explaining the set up too.

  • mukustink

    I said earlier the NAM was owed an apology! Nothing to see here. Move along folks LOL.

  • mukustink

    You may want to tell the folks that the home page still has WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY for the blog. You may want to change it as it;s not the most accurate home page!

  • rkcal

    It’s not warming up quite as much as anticipated. Hmmm.

  • f00dl3

    It’s not over ’till it’s over guys. It’s Kansas City. Hang tight!

  • VerySkeptical

    Fat lady has sung, and took the upper level energy farther away from KC. Unless there is a perpetual vort max out there somewhere.

  • Hockeynut69

    Still getting some off and on spurts of rain. Nice to get the moisture for sure.

  • Hockeynut69

    So far it looks like this weather event is playing out just as Gary said. Looks like development near Wichita. Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out. Time to pop some popcorn and watch the show.