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No Severe Weather Season So Far

Good morning, It’s Friday!

Kansas City has been getting enough rain since spring began, but amazingly there has been a record low number of severe weather reports not just in Kansas City, but across all of tornado alley, and all of North America:

May Severe Weather Reports across the United States:

  • May 1:  3o reports, 0 tornadoes
  • May 2:  9 reports, 1 tornado in Florida
  • May 3:  0, 0
  • May 4:  11 reports, 5 florida weak tornadoes
  • May 5: 1, 0
  • May 6:  32 reports, 1 tornado near Bakersfield, CA
  • May 7:  32 reports, 0 tornadoes
  • May 8:  71 reports, 2 tornadoes

Total:  172 severe weather reports and only 9 tornadoes during the first 8 days of May.  Wow!

At least it has been raining. Last year Kansas City had a rainfall total of 2.93″ during all of April and May. So far we have had more than double that total already this year:

2

Who had hail last night?  This cumulonimbus cloud produced a lot of pea sized hail on the south side of the KC metro area last evening.  There was a nice rain free base ( left) with some interesting lowerings, and a heavy rain/hail shaft, the dark shade down to the ground:

3

So, when will we have our next chance of thunderstorms? The jet stream is retreating north next week. This will allow a warm-up into the 80s by Tuesday.  The next potential thunderstorms in our area will arrive Wednesday or Thursday, but again the severe weather risk appears it will be low with higher chances near the Great Lakes.

Have a great weekend. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog!

Gary

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34 comments to No Severe Weather Season So Far

  • j-ox

    Gary,
    Any long-term predictions for our coming Summer/Fall ’13 as far as below-, right at, or above- average precipitation and temperatures?

    While some may have enjoyed our arid Summer ’12 last year, I’m a heat/humidity freak…so bring it! AND some avg rainfall at least, too!!

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    Care to offer any specifics on your long-range forecast that called for a significant “outbreak” of severe weather May 12-16?

    • kellyanne67

      Jerry, why do you continue to read and comment on this blog if you have nothing better to than to try and prove Gary wrong? Why does it matter so much to you? I think you need to find another, more constructive hobby. Proving people wrong must be awful tiring for you.

      • Theo

        Being a whiney little princess must be very tiring for you! Don’t be a blog bully like Mikey. Jerry has asked very nicely several times and Gary refuses to answer. Maybe listen to the most recent Jack Smack that has a line in there about Gary too. Should explain a lot. If you can’t take the heat……

        • RickMckc

          This … “Jerry has asked very nicely several times and Gary refuses to answer” would have been sufficient.

          This … “Being a whiney little princess must be very tiring for you!” is what a bully says.

    • bob osoborne

      “http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0F3mbuqY1w” Spring 2013 active severe forecast

      The spring 2012 forecasted another active severe season but KC was pretty quiet. By the NWS totals, we’ve gone over 300+ days without a tornado warning. Jeff’s comment in the 2012 spring forecast video mentions Joplin. So the LRC verifies for other areas far from here but can’t verify for the local area that needs the forecasts?

  • frigate

    Things can always change but the window for severe weather season is closing fast and May will be half over by the time our next rain chances arrive. Now here we go again with possible record low temps for Sunday AM. This cycle just doesn’t want to break down. Though the rain has been beneficial, I’m still not convinced the drought is over, only picked up .25 from this weeks rain, so by next week, the ground will be drying out.

  • Henley

    I don’t think the drought is over, things will dry out will quick with a week or two without rain and if we get in to 3 weeks without rain,we’ll be right back to the conditions of last summer.

  • frigate

    I agree Henley. The rain amount for KCI for 2012 is also somewhat skewed as KCI missed alot of rain that the south side of the city got last year before the drought really kicked in region wide. IF we pick up some good rains region wide next week, I’ll feel a bit better but if we don’t and we get these hit or miss type storms like this last round, it may not be over.

  • smiley10

    I have to agree… Jerry’s daily pestering trying to point out mistakes in the long-range forecast is juvenile. When one devotes so much effort trying to make someone look bad, it only makes themselves look bad.

  • PILOT MISER

    Kci has reported the lowest of rainfall totals from what I have seen from the surrounding areas. Seems the heaviest totals have missed us up here based on news reports an bloggers totals. We did get over an inch in the latest batch of rain but to me there is always going to be some disparity when looking at a large reporting area.

    Not to say I am not worried that we could enter a drier time period that won’t help us out. But a two week period of no rain isn’t going to put back in a drought. It won’t help is but it is not an automatic here we go into drought again. My opinion.

  • mukustink

    Gary good job on the forecast for this morning!

    Gary what has caused the non existent severe weather especially tornado’s? Has it been the positoning of the jet stream? Does the AO or el nina or el nino have any effect on severe weather?

  • stans

    So it is ok for Gary to shout at the top of his lungs on the newscast and here on the blog how he “predicted the future 100 days ago!!” (and BTW, his claims are usually head-scratchers…see the snow event = the predicted severe weather event from last week) , but it is not ok to bring up the misses on his “predicting the future”??? Preposterous. And BTW, he is not “predicting” the future for heaven’s sake. Every time I hear him say that I bust out laughing, as does my wife. His short-term forecasts especially. He is, like every other met, looking at some computer models and evaluating what could happen, not predicting the future. And his long range forecasts are obviously based on his silly notion that he has discovered some revolutionary forecast tool that only he can see. And they miss more than they hit. I call that “throwing out a possible scenario and hoping that it hits…if it doesn’t, blame seasonal changes or some other cause.”

    • mmack66

      Predicting the future is exactly what weathermen do. That’s why they call it a FOREcast, genius.

      • stans

        Ok, I’ll grant you that they are stating what they think will happen. In retrospect, maybe that is predicting the future. But the reality is that they are reading what the computer models spit out. Without these models, they couldn’t begin to make forecasts more than a few days out. So it doesn’t take some freaking Nostradmus to put out a weather forecast, like Gary likes to make himself out to be, especially with these forecasts that fall within the model ranges. With regard to the LRC weather business scam/forecasts, I can guess what will happen 100 days from now, and if something similar to my guess happens somewhere in the US around 100 days, plus or minus however many days I need to make it fit, then I can say “Look!!! I predicted the future!!!” Oh, and thanks for calling me a genius, mmmmmaaaaaack.

        • Rock Hardon

          See the quote below.A direct quote from Jack Harry in his latest “Jack Smack” column. Jack has worked with the weatherman on a daily basis for 8 yesrs. No one on this blog can say the same.

          Jack knows Gary better than anyone on this blog.No one can dispute that.

          Jack is saying the same things as the Heretics who have the unmittigated audacity to say the same thing: Gary will never admit his is wrong.

          How can the Kool Aid Party Kids countermand the statement by Jack? 8 Years isn’t long enough to get to know someone? Jack is jealous of the weatherman? Jack is saying this to create a false feud?

          “Ned Yost will never admit that he’s wrong. Never. He’s a lot like our weatherman in that regard”

          I am dying to hear what the Kool Aid Party Kids come up with on this one!

        • Stans,

          We have had successful forecasts and failures, but it is the forecaster error that is the reason for the bad forecast, not necessarily the cycling weather pattern. I would have loved to forecast this lack of severe weather so far, but I did not. The Climate Prediction Center attempts to make these long range seasonal forecasts as well. We do quite well in comparison to those. The more specific weekly forecasts utilize our knowledge of the cycling weather pattern and these forecasts are gradually getting better. It may seem low, but getting to 60 65% accuracy at 40 days our or longer is a very good number to strive for. I believe we are already there.

          When we are wrong you all certainly love to tell us that we blew it. Sometimes you tell us we are wrong even when we are right. Anyway, it goes with the territory. A five day forecast is around 60 to 65% accurate. All I am claiming here is that we believe we can be as accurate on a 45 day forecast as we are with a 5 day forecast. And, Stans, there aren’t any computer models helping us in these longer ranges. We use the LRC.

          Have a great weekend.

          Gary

  • f00dl3

    I agree with Jerry onthis blog. If Gary is going to market his theory as being repectable, then it’s only natural people are going to point out the flaws in the theory. So far, it has missed on nearly every respect. Gary’s winter forecast called for just below normal snowfall if I remember right – we had almost double our normal season snowfall this winter/spring. Gary’s LRC showed the Superstorm Sandy impacting New England every X days – haven’t heard of that lately, have we. I remember when I was planning a trip to the gulf Gary’s Weather 2020 site showed the forecast for that week as being dry and mild, near normal temperatures. There was a freeze down there, and it rained 3/5 of the days I was there!

    There is obviously some tweaking that needs to be done to make this LRC be of any reputable use to the meterological community. Especially when having the AO or NAO or ENSO or other “variable factors” screw around with the LRC so much to where it invalidates the LRC.

  • f00dl3

    Of course, it’s hard to say respectable when you misspell it :-S Point of the matter is, Gary highlighted almost every week as having some form of severe weather from what his Spring forecast implied. We have barely had any.

    • bob osoborne

      I’m going to have to agree. He needs to stop with the long term seasonal forecasts as a gimmick for viewer draws. They’ve missed the mark for 2-3 years on the winter snow totals. The severe weather that marked many days in May is turning out to be a bust as well.Long range is not exact but it needs to stop being thrown out there. There may be cycles of weather but the snow (there was more than 13 inches this season and almost none last year, and more than 13 the winter prior)was off as was the severe set ups. The LRC isn’t predicting weather, just cycles, which is why I feel the long range seasonal forecasts are so far off the mark.

      Slamming those who question the validity of these things is unfair. When one touts oneself as having a system to forecast months down the road and then those storms underproduce or fail to materialize, then questioning the accuracy is fair.

  • I see all points of view. I have a big problem with people attacking those that have valid and tough questions for Gary about his theory and forecast.

    It kills me that they run the “most accurate” commercial and they show the years of 2011, 2012, and 2013 in the commercial. Well they lost the title for 2012 to the channel down the dial. Gary and 41 just can’t let it go that they lost. It seems to me that it’s clearly false advertising. How can you say here is Gary with Kansas City’s most accurate forecast when it’s been proven that he doesn’t have the most accurate forecast? Gary’s response is that he barely lost. So a lost is lost be it by a little or a lot.

  • smiley10

    Saw my first hummingbird of the season today! So glad the little guys have finally made it up here.

    • kellyanne67

      I heard one fly by me last night but I haven’t actually seen one. I’ve had my feeders out for a couple weeks but they are being very stealthy…

  • smiley10

    Edward – I honestly don’t think it’s that Gary & 41 can’t stand that they lost the most accurate forecast award,it’s just marketing. And, I do remember in the past when the other station hadn’t won the award, they claimed it meant nothing because you pay for the award. But now that they’ve won, they have changed their tune. It’s all just marketing spin! =)

    • Smiley I agree it’s marketing but there’s honest and dishonest marketing. This is clearly misleading and dishonest. I wonder if I called in to Call For Action if Keith King would cover it? LOL

  • udndcs

    When should we expect some afternoon clearing of these clouds? The satellite images don’t look promising.

  • f00dl3

    What gets me most is on the 7 day today shows as sunny and 65. Not a hint of clouds in that image for FRI. :-S

    “http://media2.kshb.com/photo/MAP/188828182/188828182_Position1.JPG”

  • PILOT MISER

    Clearing line is coming from the north by northwest. Sun peeking out up here in Platte City.

  • BigSteve

    Gary’s forecast for blog blowhards has proven accurate unfortunately. It’s been very windy today.

  • ksloco

    NOT!!! good enough Lezak!! You worthless scientist!.. How dare! you come up with a new theory and be passionate about it and then have the Nerve! to throw it out to mere amateurs. You called for severe weather “next” week and even though it’s not here yet! We dont care! How can you live with yourself? Your wrong!!! wrong!!wrong!! and even though you admit it when you are . no one cares!! got It! now shoot yourself and end this stupid blog!cant you see how angry you make 2 or 3 people! oh The NERVE!

  • KUweatherman

    I was out taking pictures of my car last night and got a good shot of that cloud…all the while we stayed in the sunshine the entire evening here in northwest Olathe.

    *http://i.imgur.com/oCSaKdp.jpg*