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Nice March Day, Four Day Storm on the Way

Good Monday bloggers,

This is one of the nicest days we have seen in weeks. The sun is out and it is not brutally cold. But, as you know, this pattern is crazy and active and our next storm arrives by Tuesday morning.

This is a slow-moving storm system that is picking up copious moisture from the Pacific ocean and Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday morning rain will extend from Kansas to the Pacific Ocean and Baja, CA!

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TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: The rain will move into our region 3-6 AM, so it will be a wet morning rush hour. Temperatures will be warming from the upper 30s to low 40s.

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TUESDAY MORNING: Periods of rain and drizzle will be spreading north and covering most locations by 10 AM.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: There will be periods of rain/drizzle and south winds will bring warmer air north. Temperatures will rise into the 50s Tuesday night. The main storm will still be in the southwest USA and you can see a large area of rain and thunderstorms forming from eastern Colorado, western Kansas south to west Texas. There may be some severe weather out there, but it will likely not be warm enough for widespread severe weather. This is not a usual location for that amount of rain to be located this time of year.

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WEDNESDAY: The area of heavy rain and thunderstorms will track east Tuesday night, arriving in our region Wednesday morning. This will be the last period of heavier rain for the storm. Temperatures will rise to the low and mid 60s. This will not be quite warm enough for severe weather. But, winds will be gusting over 40 mph anyway as a deep surface low tracks into the Plains. The central pressure will be 28.70″! The pressure this afternoon is around 30.40″. So, if you are susceptible to aches and pains due to pressure changes, this may be an issue this week.

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THURSDAY: The storm will head into the Great Lakes. This will put us in the wrap around which means more wind, temperatures falling from the 40s to 30s and rain/snow showers. Yes, we could see some snow, but we are not expecting any accumulation or slick spots as it will not be cold enough. Friday will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: At this time it looks like we will see around 1″ of rain, give or take .25″.  A few locations could see more, if there are more thunderstorms. Remember, we average 2.37″ of rain for the entire month of March, so this is quite a bit of rain for a storm this time of year.

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Rainfall amounts will be 1″ to 2″ over all of the Plains, including Colorado. This is rare for those locations this time of year.

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There is a flood watch from western Kansas to southeast Nebraska. It is rare any time of year for western Kansas to be in a flood watch, let alone the early to middle part of March. We have a smattering of river flood warnings, which is not that unusual.

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The weather looks nice next weekend, including St. Patrick’s day. Right now it looks sunny with highs in the low 50s next Sunday.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff Penner

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