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Next Storm System, A Miss

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We broke a record low this morning for the second straight day.  We dropped to 55°, which broke the old record of 57° set in 1985.  A large Canadian surface high pressure has been in control.  The humidity has been low, so with the clear nights, temperatures are allowed to drop with good radiational cooling conditions.

The next two nights will not be clear and the surface high will be drifting away so our winds become light from the southeast.  The reason we are not going to have a clear sky that there is a storm system dropping southeast into western Nebraska from the northern Rockies.  This storm system will bring some great rainfall to the western and southern Plains.  They still need every drop.  Amounts will run .50″-2″ with some spots seeing 2″-5″.

MAP #1: Water vapor image from 11 AM Wednesday

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Based on all of the new data, this storm will track too far south and west of our area to bring much rain.  We will see lots of clouds Thursday and Friday.  We may see a brief shower Thursday night into Friday or perhaps some drizzle.  Thursday will see a thickening overcast, but should stay dry.  Friday is looking like a cloudy day with highs near 70 as the low level moisture from the storm to the south gets transported north.

Here is a break down of the weather for the next two days from our latest Powercast.

MAP #2: Thursday at 7 AM.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be occurring across Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, while we stay dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

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MAP #3: Thursday at 3 PM.  We are mostly cloudy as the rain continues from Wichita to Tulsa to Springfield.  Out highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, a nice day.

2

MAP #4: Friday at 5 PM.  There is very little rain around, but the sky is mostly cloudy. It looks like it will be a low overcast and perhaps some drizzle.  So, Friday will struggle to reach 70°.

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If you are wondering when we will return to decent pool weather, (It needs to be 85° or higher and humid for me to swim!) it will be this weekend as highs reach the low 80s Saturday and near 90° on Sunday.

One other issue.  Since, we are missing this wet storm, there is not much rain in the forecast for the next 7-10 days.  So, if you want to keep your yard green, you will need the sprinklers.

Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff

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32 comments to Next Storm System, A Miss

  • terrydsnowy

    I still think will get some kind of rain here in KCK on Thursday. That’s my thinking.

  • Hume-Dude

    I seem to recall a mentioning of a return to the wet June pattern coming in the next few weeks, but then again it was just a mentioning. Sometimes the long range models vary greatly between runs, they get so riddled with errors more than 5 days out. Maybe I will catch some decent showers tomorrow, but probably more like Pittsburg or Joplin getting in on the more significant rains.

  • robyn corzine

    Gary has been saying that the wet part of the pattern will be returning in the next 10-14 days. Per his theory he believes that we will be getting rain in the next 2 weeks. Time will tell.

    This polar vortex has been awesome. LOL

  • yewtrees

    Hopes for El Niño collapse:

    “http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-15/strong-el-nino-seen-unlikely-by-australia-as-pacific-ocean-cools.html”

    “http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview”

  • mowermike

    yewtrees,

    I saw that. WOW! One day they think it’s going to be huge, the next, not so much. We continue to be below average on temps and this will likely lead to another blockbuster winter.

    • sedsinkc

      Mike this response is from the prior blog in case you missed it:

      Mike this has been a cool year from the start for the central US, a carryover from a cool 2013. However, there are still areas of drought despite the cool temperatures in the Plains. Even now, with severe to extreme drought in North Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth has only had 2 100 degree days so far this year. They average 18 per year. The key is the position of the anticyclone in the summer and so far this summer it has been centered west of the Plains. Not unexpected, if you are a firm believer in the LRC. The favored positions of the longwave features from last winter has stayed much the same up to now. Question is, as the yearly LRC pattern starts to transition in August-September, what will happen? Last year we had a cool summer until late August into early September and our only 100 degree day of the summer officially occurred on September 8.

      • luvsno

        seds…..
        Do you have a link to show first 100 degree day last year? I assume you are talking about KCI.
        Here in JoCo KS, I think it occurred the week before Labor day, then on the 3 day Labor Day weekend it cooled down, then heated back up after L. Day.

        • sedsinkc

          luv, yes I was talking about KCI. I know downtown and others reached 100 sooner, like it almost always does because of the heat island effect and KCI being the farthest north of the KC weather obs locations. KCI had a few 98s and 99s last summer before finally cracking 100 nearly as late in a summer as it ever has. Easiest source for verification is the little furry animal channel’s online weather almanac. They keep official stats from KCI or whatever the official recording station was before KCI in 1972 (downtown NWS office, then downtown airport) on there.

          • sedsinkc

            Well actually KCI had one 98 (in July) and one 99 (in August) prior to reaching 100 on Sept. 8 last year.

          • sedsinkc

            The latest 100+ temp officially on record in KC occurred on Sept. 28, 1953 when it reached 103. Last year’s 100 was the 5th latest occurrence on record.

          • sedsinkc

            Last comment about last year’s 100. Occurring on Sept. 8, it was the latest 100 degree reading to ever occur to date at the KCI recording station, which became the official location of record in 1972. The other four times it reached 100 later than Sept. 8 occurred in the 1950’s or earlier.

  • sedsinkc

    This is for the blogger on the prior blog who said no record highs have been set in July since 1988. That is not the case. Record highs of 104 and 105, respectively, were set on July 6 and 7, 2012. Another record high of 105 was set on July 29, 2012.

  • Hume-Dude

    I know everybody was hoping the El Nino would help CA get out of their drought, but not all hopes are gone. They don’t necessarily NEED the El Nino to get them out of the drought although it certainly would help. As long as they don’t have that crazy strong ridge build in the West coast like last year’s big storm blocker, they should be well on their way to bounce back just with their average winter precip. Like has been discussed here numerous times, you don’t necessarily have to make up a previous years deficient in order to climb out of a drought. Several heavy and well timed precip. events can make a significant dent in their drought, but will take more time to get those reservoirs to fill back up to 100% pool

  • yewtrees

    Mike. It is still too early to tell what this whole scenario of El Niño means to the upcoming winter. It is going to be interesting to wait and see what the next report is when it comes out at the end of the month.

  • Hockeynut69

    I couldn’t make this up. This is great http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article739672.html

    • overlandpark4me

      Not a reach considering how she had a PR degree first, and later when someone thought she should be a weather chick, college hopped 3 times, and got an online weather “degree”. At that point she joined the, “scare you for ratings”, Ch 5

  • Hume-Dude

    Back to super boring weather and no blog updates. Gary said last night that the end of next week looks like a promising chance of rain/storms. After the heat next week we will no doubt need the rain. I haven’t had any since 7-8 , and with no rain in the forecast I will be working on a fairly long dry spell by that point. Very typical for this time of year. Last year, I had two different 6 week long dry spells so this is nothing.
    Corn has big full ears already, so that crop is basically a lock. The beans will need a good rain to assist with pod development, and then another rain to help fill the pods. Still waiting on my pond filler rain to come, maybe this fall?

    • Dobber

      I would check your dam for a leak instead of waiting for a pond filler

      • Hume-Dude

        I have a brand new pond, and two other ponds we had re-dug. I don’t know if they have a leak, as they have not been filled with any water to subsequently leak out. A new pond needs some big rains to fill. I am yet to receive more than a 2″ rain this year, and it was dry when I got that rain so I have had limited runoff all year. Last year, although very dry at times, produced two different 4″ rain events that flooded everything like crazy. So I am waiting for one of those to come along….any day now…..been saying that since my new pond was finished last October.

  • Drought Miser

    Quick question folk’s. .., last night on the 10pm newscast Gary drew my name out for the three degree warranty drawing, do I need to just wait or do I call in?

    • Hume-Dude

      DM – you are in the running for the monthly contest, so you don’t need to call or anything. They will call you if you happen to be the lucky winner. BTW , how do register to get your name on that list?

      • Drought Miser

        It was on the weather front page in the lower left corner whne I registered,, thanks for the info!!

  • luvsno

    Wow…….no update since Wednesday.
    Well, tomorrow is Sat, …..looking forward to JD for 2 days !! :)

  • mowermike

    “http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MO”

    Where’s this raging drought at??

    The entire area north of 1-70 roughly with no headlines.

    All right Royals, 2.5 out from the wildcard and 6.5 out from the division, 68 games to play, what ya got boyz? It’s GO time…

    • robyn corzine

      Funny how the large majority of the viewing area is still abnormally dry and or in a moderate drought. Why do you continue to “cherry pick” info to support your claim. Your boss said there was NO CHANCE of A DROUGHT and yet parts of the viewing area are in a drought. Funny how facts are facts and BS is BS.

  • Hume-Dude

    I was just checking out ACCUWEATHER’s long range forecast. It is a total joke. IT has our area in 100F heat wave from next Saturday through the rest of their forecast period, basically a week straight. I am not buying it. They pull forecasts out of a hat over there I swear.

    • sedsinkc

      Yeah, that Accuweather forecast is ridiculous. What are they basing that on? Both the most recent GFS and the ECMWF models show our area having another significant cool front next weekend followed by a few days of pleasant weather again during the last week of July. I could put together a more realistic forecast than what Accuweather has posted with never taking a meteorology course.

    • Dobber

      They do the same thing in the winter months with snow, ice, cold. I deleted them from my phone. I hope we get another polar vortex this summer! Cheers

      • Hume-Dude

        I was wondering if this was going to cycle one more time in September, or will the new LRC pattern be setting up by then? It will be very close to the time period where it re-sets. I have a feeling we will see some form of this again in Sept, I doubt it will do anything crazy like produce frost but another cool shot is in my forecast around the period of Sept.8-12