Good evening bloggers,
Here is a picture from our Briarcliff Skyview seconds after the explosion:
I am currently analyzing the new data and at first glance the storm is strong, taking a track that will bring us a lot of precipitation of various types, and the forecast that we made earlier is still valid. There is one big adjustment on timing. It appears that the precipitation will spread in from the south a bit later than earlier forecast. I am now thinking the snow/sleet will begin beteen 3 AM and 6 AM, but the amounts have not changed.
I will go over the details at 10 PM. We have a breaking news situation still in progress and that will lead the newscast at 10 PM. There was an explosion and fire at JJ’s restaurant on the Plaza and we know about 14 injuries a few serious, and apparantly three people missing.
Have a great night.
Gary
First? Cool
Amazing
When is the next GFS?
Second…almost as cool
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_54HR.gif”
latest NAM Sleet Accum. Map shows .5-1″ of sleet
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”
NAM snow map
Not good for snow. Compared to earlier at least.
I bet the college I teach at will not cancel until I get to the school 30 minutes away.
Lets see how it looks tomorrow after the mid morning runs.
Hey Gary, you mentioned your models showed more than 15 inches for KC. If that’s the case then why are you going to up some of your forecast amounts? Do you not have confidence in those particular solutions?
Better not be traveling on I-70 tomorrow night.
scottr, I posted this on the old blog in answer to your question:
Yes. And it’s at the height of the storm. I still see a real potential for sleet to cut down accumulations from KC and south and east. St. Jo looks to be all snow. So somewhere between here and there will be the dividing line. This could still change on later runs, for better or worse.
Thanks seds. I really hope that it is an outlier and we end up all snow in South JoCo… not holding my breath
To see the snow and sleet accumulations graphically on a map, look at the links Kcchamps posted above.
“www.weather.gov” look at the huge area of warnings and watches.
They’ve said it should be mostly snow now for us
Yeah but those snow totals compared to earlier runs are not as impressive. I hope we don’t get any sleet.
NAM evening model cycle continues to improve for a big snow event for much of the area. Overall trend continues of a track further south and colder. The upper low is well positioned now to hold snow in the forecast much of the day Thursday.
GFS model cycle is next to process.
Another thing with NAM’s 0Z model I noticed @ 42h was intense snowfall rates of ~ 9″/3hr. The storm seems very dependent on thundersnow powering grater than 3″/hr rates.
Source: “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2013022000/USA_ASNOWI3_sfc_042.gif”
Did you see that snow map? I’m not really buying it just yet but it is concerning.
which snow map?
I appreciate the local importance of the fire, but this continued live wall to wall coverage long after the fire is out seems like severe overkill to me.
They are still covering the fire? I’m watching the Blues game on NHL network so I have no idea what’s on 41.
Poof-poof-poof
enough snowplowman…thats getting old dude
Sorry for asking twice. New at this. Why do the models show the heavy snow area ending east/northeast of KC in Missouri?
Will not the storm continue to track easterly, or northeast and the heavy snow swath would continue on through central Iowa or NW Illinois?
The storm will be rotating around a developing upper low near the KS/NE border. I will go over the details in tomorrow’s blog. The precipitation will weaken a bit off to the east, the way I see it right now.
Will KC area be under a WSW tomorrow?
That’s a big 10-4 good buddy!
Wouldn’t be surprised if NWS KC/Pleasant Hill upgrades the KC area to Winter Storm Warning overnight tonight.
the NWS would probably upgrade us to a winter storm warning late tonight or early tomorrow morning, by my thinking.
brad
Assuming it starts between 3:00 and 6:00 AM, when should the accumulating precipitation END on Thursday afternoon?
I think its supposed to last into the evening.
The one posted by kcchamps. Showing about half as much snow then it was earlier. Sleet may still very well be a problem.
Shouldn’t we be upgraded from a watch to a warning soon?
There always seems to be such an “extreme” gradient for precip totals near KC. It’s like we’re CONSTANTLY on the cusp if “feast or famine” if you will.
It makes for exciting weather, I guess, but being that I’ve been in the KC area for _only_ about 10 years, has this always been the case?
I remember the same sort of hit-or-miss scenarios in western KS when I was growing up there but it seemed to err on the side of “hit” where living in KC it seems to be more “miss.”
Just a bit perplexed and frustrated by all of it.
The word “poof” needs to stop being said. Its getting old guys.
Agreed. Actually, it got old a while ago. Now its getting old and stale and kindy smelly!
Is Poofing OK?
Naw Gary and others have mostly ruled out sleet for this far north now. They said it should be mostly snow for us due to the storm tracking further south and pulling more of that cold air down.
“I am now thinking the snow/sleet will begin beteen 3 AM and 6 AM” From the blog. Where has Gary ruled out sleet?
POOF
You rebel
couldn’t resist
Mukstate stinks!
Hi sweetie. Was wondering where you were. Will you be here all night? xoxo
Abra-cadabra ala-kazam, I sure love snow, so I’ll go with the NAM!
GFS starting to download now. Won’t be interesting until hour 33…
SREF mean shows 10-12″ for KC through about 3pm on Thursday, with probably more accumulations in addition to this.
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/us/sipa_us_f45.gif”
That maps looks like it s saying 12-15 inches for KC to me
That model is a lot different than most others; it doesn’t show anything for Iowa at all which makes me think it’s not terribly accurate.
The map is valid at noon Thursday, so accums will likely be higher than this.
Whatever falls…sleet or snow…will help our drought. I would be disappointed if the snow Passed Over Our Fair States
but any moisture is welcome. Except freezing rain = power outages.
Thankfully the freezing rain threat is basically zero for Kansas City as of now.
That HPC run looks fabulous. 10 inches over nearly entire state of KS. This would be a nice way to start climbing out of the drought.
Looks like 8″-12″ for metro even with some sleet. If all snow then 12″-16″ would be possible! Maybe even 18″ in areas.
Snow is on the way
And sorry if I seem somewhat aloof
But someone will be made to pay
If I hear anyone else utter “Poof”
Bring it on, the snow, I mean
Let it be more than we’ve ever seen!
Flakes so huge they cover the cars
So we’ll just panic and hit the bars.
We’re all excited or so it seems
Here’s the forecast of our dreams!
So please forgive any blogging doof
Who may have written the forbidden word “p–f”!!
sniff, that was beautiful man
Not weather related but, My heart and prayer go out the the people and there family who were involved in the plaza explosion
OMG! Seriously. We get it. The fire was bad. But this is a WEATHER blog. Jesus. Take your prayers for non-weather related to the news blog.
The GFS is similar to the last, with the 540 thickness maybe a hair farther north. It would still be almost all snow on this run though.
This run also gives KC some wrap around accumulations afterwords and brings back the 1.00″+ qpf amounts, it’s trending wetter like the NAM.
Word to Dr Suess
GFS is slightly colder than NAM and would be all snow in downtown KC and north from there. Total liquid around 1 inch, a little more than earlier today. GFS also shows KC getting some light accumulations of deformation band snow lasting into Friday morning.
Skylar – do you have a link you could post?
Total moisture: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_075_precip_ptot.gif”
Northern extent of mix is the first blue line: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_039_1000_500_thick.gif” It quickly pushes south afterward.
OK let’s go for 300+ on this blog.
GFS gives KC around 1 foot of snow, but less on the far south side.
So what will the new ECMWF model run show? Which model is closer to the correct solution, the NAM or the GFS? These are critical questions.
Over 1″ of frozen precip is a good amount.
I’m out for the night. Back tomorrow some time.
Quick question for someone who knows, what does it look like for the people atleast 70 miles south southeast of the city?
looks like 12″+ is looking more likely, at this point anyway
winter storm haiku
precipitation
sleet or snow? how much?
say poof. ill cut you
i totally screwed that up
What about next week?
precipitation
sleet or snow? how much we get?
say poof, ill cut you
The NAM doesn’t indicate 12″+ in the metro but who knows. Depends on how far north that sleet moves.
Hays KS is going to get nailed
Latest SRERF for MKC. Continues to climb big time. Now showing a mean among all models incorporated at over 13″!!!
“http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130219&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap”
PS. You will need Chrome or Safari to see this illustration.
How do you read that ?
Which web browser do you use?
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022000&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=069
fire – If that is correct it will be like the Christmas Eve snow 3 years ago.
OMG why do all my post say waiting moderation.
Gary or anyone, I know you say snow thru Thursday evening, when do you expect the storm to end, thanks
Sometime between 7-10pm I believe
I’m not understanding their (41) coverage of the fire…they are just repeating themselves over and over. It’s basically a 10 minute cycle being repeated with nothing new at all.
“http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
Keep in mind, that map is from 12 hours ago.
This one is not:
“http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif”
Wow.
Wow is right Rick. Good stuff! Let’s hope it comes through!
It was supposed to be a comparison but forgot to put the ” on the 2nd link.
No worries. Either way, it’s an impressive storm for us if these maps verify.
Here is the latest version of that map fire508. And BOOM goes the dynamite!
“http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif”
“http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif
latest GFS snow map shows 10-12″ for most of the metro
I bet Olathe clears 10 inches. The ground will get a great soaking when it melts. Those trees really need that.
interesting little patch of 12-14 inches just NE of metro
Funny how Wunderground and Accu both took the large totals out and replaced it with 2-4 in town changing to heavy freezing rain/sleet Thursday night. W.C. still has large totals, but i don’t consider them to be reliable on anything. They’re the TMZ of weather.
Accuweather and Wunderground aren’t much better.
Agreed, McMasters, Abrahm’s, I could go on and on.
Have opted to hold off issuing any warnings and continue the watch
as there remains enough uncertainty in the track of the system and
snow/ice amounts remain in flux. Plus the ECMWF has shifted away
from its previous forecast as well as the other model forecasts
THIS JUST OUT FROM THE NWS WONDER WHAT THEY ARE SEEING
That statement was from earlier in the day. What they updated was the Aviation Diss. at the bottom of the page.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1106 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013
…UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION…
Like I said that statement was from late morning or earlier afternoon.
Yeah pick your poison really.
I would imagine by lunch tomorrow I’ll be reading about someone’s best guess and make my generator check based on it.
Here is the latest GEM (Canadian) Model. Totals continue to be very impressive from this model. It has remained consistent with higher snow totals around our area all along. Latest version when converted to inches suggests 10+ metro wide.
“http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=120&lang=en&map=na”
would think NWS would be upgrading us to a winter storm warning anytime…
Bet that won’t happen until 4:00 or so. They want one more look at the NAM and GFS before determining their final call.
New ECMWF out as well. It continues with the southerly trend on the ULL, which bodes well for our chances. The projection from this model is also very impressive.
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022000®ion=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=048″
With all the new model data trending towards a southerly trend on ULL, and the totals being very impressive. How come Gary and his team haven’t updated the snowfall maps to show higher amounts?
Even NWS is down from what they had earlier. Up to an inch up front, then 3-5 Thursday, then maybe a half an inch that night. Someone is going to be wrong. I hope they’re wrong to the tune of 1-3 tops with some sleet
What are you talking about? Everything I’ve seen no one has lowered their #s for snowfall. Ease off the pipe.
gary may be sleeping lol. He’s gotta prepare for tomorrow nite and the next day, non-stop radar/map watching/broadcasting etc
gotta point…haha, gotta appreciate everything he does for us bloggers!
Years ago I was in a bowling league he was in. He left in the middle of the league one night because there were flurries and he wanted to be out in it.
kcchamps, are you awake and waiting for the next model to come out lol? knock knock
yep, Im up and waiting lol
little more than an hour until the NAM comes out
ok just noticed NWS lowered snowfall totals for Olathe and put freezing drizzle bk in the forecast. What the heck is going on…doesnt make sense with everything else going on.
Ill be up with you guys waiting on the new models to come out! Please post when they do come out, thanks in advance
Twc app is telling me 2-4 inches wed night and 6-10 Thursday during the day. So 8-14 inches total for Olathe.
Nws much less
I’m up and waiting for the data as well. That drive from lees summit to indepence on Thursday for works gonna suck lol.
12-18 for me in Hays.
Ryan
http://www.hayskansasweather.com
whens the new NAM come out? 2:00 AM?
Yeah pretty much said the same for me when I looked earlier olathematt.. I’m not sure why the nws is saying such low totals.. Maybe they are just waiting for these latest model runs to update their forecast
I’ve already decided I’m most likely calling in Thursday lol.. I work at 3pm and my trucks tires are absolutely terrible in even rain. Not even going to risk getting stuck
Looks like it will start snowing at 5am
Ironically I am getting new tires in the morning just in time. Although I don’t plan on driving anywhere Thursday. Ill be home cooking time consuming meals, throwing logs on the fire in the fireplace, some window shopping on the Internet, maybe an on demand movie, watching the snow, checking the blog, laundry, etc. it’s going to be great.
Oh and don’t forget to have a ruler or yardstick handy for those measurements. I’m sure we will have good snowfall updates throughout the day.
Nams out to 31 hours so far
Out to 36 hours now
39 hours out. Right at 1 inch of liquid so far
This is what its looking like 45 hrs out
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045
the latest NAM looks to be back on track, in terms of having a lot of SNOW!
Doesn’t back off one bit
10-12″?
10 to 14
quick question…where do you guys get these charts? Is there a link someone can post?
Check out instantweathermaps.com
Excellent
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057
Will school in Lansing, KS probably be cancelled?
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif”
latest NAM has 1-1.25″ of precip for the metro, most of which will be SNOW
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif”
chance of more than 8″ of SNOW
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif”
chance of more than 12″ of SNOW
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge12_2013022012f048.gif”
the metro is in the 30-40% and 40-50%
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge18_2013022012f048.gif
and for shock value, here is the chance of seeing more than 18″ of SNOW. the metro has a 5-10% chance
NWS in Kansas City just issued a Winter Storm Warning. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…8 TO 12 INCHES.
WSW posted
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KSZ105&warncounty=KSC091&firewxzone=KSZ105&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning
8-12 inches in the North, 6-10 in KC.
Gee, do you think the kids at school will be nice and calm today?
Haha that was us when we were young though too
NWS upgraded my area to 5-9 inches!
and your area is……
Thank You High Pressure for providing the cold arctic air we need to produce a snowstorm, and thank you gulf of mexico for finally opening up and giving us the moisture we need to help us in this drought…amen. BRING ON THE SNOW!!!
TWC local on the 8s forecast for where I live in Independence is saying 8-12″