Good late morning bloggers,
The morning computer models have a slightly slower solution, slowing the storm down by around 3 hours. We are sticking with this forecast for now:
Latest Forecast Timeline:
- Wednesday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain developing later in the day. High: 44°
- Wednesday night 8 PM – Midnight: Periods of rain with the rain snow line just northwest of Kansas City. Temperatures dropping through the 30s
- Thursday morning midnight -3 AM: Rain changing to snow. Accumulations are likely with the heaviest most likely up north. The track and strength of the storm are still a bit unclear and we will learn more between now and 10 PM tonight when we update this forecast
- Thursday 3 AM – 7 AM: Snow likely with the above snowfall forecast still expected. Temperatures dropping into the 20s with winds increasing to 30 mph. If the storm tracks a bit farther south and is more organized then the amounts could be slightly higher and shift south. But, if it is less organized and farther north then the amounts could be slightly less. We will update this forecast today at 4:30 PM on 41 Action News
The Canadian model just came out with a similar slower solution to the GFS. This storm is just now moving onshore and beginning to form. A lot can still happen and change between now and Thursday morning. It always does. We will keep you updated on the blog, Facebook, twitter, and on 41 Action News.
Gary
I see the models trending south still though is that correct.
Not necessarily. It is about the same track. But, the wave is forecast to track south of Kansas City. We will need this to happen to have any accumulation at all.
That dusting line just keeps inching further north. Looks like its gonna be a northland snowfall
The GFS model seems to indicate a more southerly treck though correct??
what does thet mean for us that the storm is slowing down? anything more than just slowing down… is that good if you want more snow? If it slows down does make it take a more south track?
With the storm staying over us for an additional three hours, it seems that regardless of how much snow we get, THAT fact would mean we would get more as opposed to the storm zipping by. That’s why I’m confused that you didn’t update your forecast map. A storm’s speed is central to the amount of precipitation it drops. Don’t sit on the fence until the day of the storm, please.
The storm slowing doesn’ mean it will be over us for 3 hours. I think it means the timing is slowed down so instead of hitting at 10:00pm it will hit at 7:00pm for example. I think that’s what Gary is saying.
oops I did that backwards instead of 10 pm it will be here at 1am.
That makes sense but it would seem if it were slowing then it is actually moving slower and would take longer to pass.
With the system slowing down, does that allow for the air temperature to cool a bit more before the actual storm approaches (since it would likely be after the sun sets versus and afternoon arrival)? If that is the case would that mean more precip in the form of snow versus rain? I know the really cold air would not occur until the storm begins to pass and we get on the back side of the storm but thought maybe this would reduce rain and therefore increase possible snow amount? Not wishcasting just asking the question. Thanks!
Where is the best place to get maps of the snow models?
It’s just now coming on shore guys.. The track isn’t 100% set in stone yet, so it can still change. It seems like to me that even though it has slowed down a bit, that the window for snow is still about the same. So I don’t think this will lead to us getting more snow, probably less in my opinion. More time for that dry slot to get to us with the storm slowing.
Phillip,
Dry slot is more of a proximity thing. Only way that happens is if the storm is further north. Otherwise, I agree with your assessment.
I think all it means is the storm arrives 3 hours later and thus any snow arrives later. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s here snowing over KC for an extra 3 hours. It could mean that warm air is brought in ahead of the storm for an extra 3 hours and that we actually get less snow.
I expect all this really does is change the timing, not the amounts.
Agreed.
Gary – My daughter and I fly MCI thru Chicago Sunday then to Washington Dulles… This is going to affect our trip isnt it??? PLEASE NO
No. This will be over long before then.
wishcaster dot com, i mean, wxcaster dot com, has the snow model maps.
While I’m looking forward to a little snow, I’m more interested in how much RAIN we’ll get prior to the snowfall.
Oh, and I know this is off-topic, but Gary/weather team, with what you’re seeing now with this pattern, do you think we’re in for another drought year similar to the last year? I keep getting a sinking feeling every time you talk about the pattern that it’s going to be as bad or worse than last year. :/
I see this being a nothing storm for us in the metro. Time will tell. Let’s keep the hype and maps going for sure. I see a big let down coming for snow lovers.
Gary when is Georges last day?
anyone seen kcchamps this year? He used to always have a plethora of model links to post lol.
If you want the hype to start rolling check out the latest GFS run for the 25/26/27 timeframe. Holy cow!
biblical!
This one belongs in the GFS Fantasy Storm Hall of Fame. Especially if it goes *poof* next week.
“http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow240.gif”
I’m thinking of 2005, one giant snowstorm in December then just a couple small clippers through the rest of the year.
For sure! It’s crazy.. I know it’s still a long ways off, but it’s pretty remarkable how consistently the models have shown this storm over the last week. When it first started showing up, it was two weeks out, and it’s kept it there pretty consistently ever since. That is very unusual. Thing is very impressive looking right now.
Matt
Yeah its been there for a while. Still a model though.
The most important things to note about that possibility are:
1. It has been on every run of the GFS for the past three days. Many times the models gin up a storm on one run and it vanishes on the next.
2. More importantly, it has also been on the European model for the same length of time. That model seems to have a better track record on storms so far this season.
Time will tell, but it’s a whole lot more fun than it’s been. At the very least we may finally put a dent in the drought.
Sure does Rick. 1 more question, will it be a mostly rain event for a lot of the precip? The maps are sure leaning toward snow. Still a ways off, but looks to be something we’ll definitely have to watch!
WOW! The Perfect Storm!
41 News at 11:00 just had metro kc at 2.3 inches look like snowfall totals are going up
Wow! That storm next week sure is looking like a monster at this point! It’s been consistantly showing up like that for a couple days now. I hope it continues to do so. That would put a dent in the drought for sure. Anyone have an idea of what the temps will be like next week? Gary says the arctic air is building, but will it head this way before the storm? Or is it going to be another timing thing?
I have to agree, those models for next week’s storm are fun to look at. But every time I look at them, I hear a *poof*. It’s fun to dream though!
I’m 45 years old. I’ve lived in KC all of my life. With the exception of one or two GREAT snowstorms, I have heard nothing but “poof”s all of my life. I think I am going to move to a mountain town/city (perhaps Leadville, Colorado) even if it is for just one year just so I can experience mega uber snows. Life is too short to accept “poof”s all of the time. (I should clarify that we have had more than one or two great snowstorms here in KC over the past 45 years, however, those other storms were forecasted to be The Perfect Storm and then they turned out to be just really GOOD snowstorms. I mean, I am still waiting for the snowstorm (and not ice storm) that shuts the city down for at least one full day.)
I believe ~1″ of rain/precip computes to anywhere from 8″-12″+ of snow depending upon fluffiness.
Question is – does it fit in the LRC. The storm that is progged for the 25-27th deepened over eastern MO and into IL/OH last time around. Will it deepen further west this time – over SE KS/OK/NW AR?
What dates correspond to the 12/25-27 storm last time around?
Why wasn’t this on Lezak’s radar weeks ago?
Lotta moisture and precip with next week’s storm, but last time I looked a fair amount of that was coming as rain…at least for us here in KC. With a good shot of snow on the backside of the rain. Either way is good by me…no traveling this year, so let it snow…or rain…
Then watch, all of those models for next week turn out to be right.
240hr GFS Snow Depth…18-20inches for Kansas City!!!
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/12/18/12/GFS_3_2012121812_F240_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
2-3 inches sounds about right for us here in Parkville. I think it would be pretty funny if this fantasy storm does dump 20 inches on us. We’re gonna get something at least.
This run is the total snow by December 28th. A huge storm is expected next week.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/
Stormy I hope you’re right
One of the “other stations” is calling for dusting at best for KC. So we will see who is right. Right now that map GL posted looks too far south for snow if you go by the “latest track from one of the other stations”.
So I feel like this hasn’t been said it quite some time, and I feel like I can speak for almost everyone when I say this. But I really do appreciate the time you and your team put into this blog Gary. It’s awesome to be able to come here and get the latest data from approaching storms. Even through this crazy drought, when there was pretty much nothing to talk about you guys managed to write something each and everyday. That’s pretty cool if you ask me. Don’t mean to sound all sappy or like I’m drinking the lezak coolaid as some here like to say lol… But, I just really wanted you guys to know that we do appreciate what you all do!
Well said!
goodland kansas just got into a blizzard warning just now.
brad
So is the NWS doing Blizzard Warnings for every windy snowstorm now? I recall there used to be something called a Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory that used to kind of imply not a substantial snowfall but windblown snow… now it appears they are throwing Blizzard warnings out for a dusting that will blow in yard.
Kind of makes thir credibility go the way of this Channel devoted to Weather on Cable TV if you ask me…
f00dl3, the criteria for the Blizzard Warning hasn’t changed, so if they are being issued, they are usually warranted. You are correct regarding the Snow & Blowing Snow Advisory. They no longer use Snow Advisory, or Snow/Blowing Snow Advisory. Whatever would have fallen inside that window before, now falls under the Winter Weather Advisory.
Matt
Agree 100% McCabe58, Gary and the weather team do a excellent job, keeping us all up to date on the weather,keep up the great work guys!!!
I as well appreciate the blog. I like getting your thoughts on upcoming weather events and what could happen. That being said, what’s your prediction right now for next weeks storm?
Will next weeks storm be more impactful than this one’s?
At this moment, a week removed from it, yes, it certainly looks like it will in our area.
Matt
New NAM shifting this thing north again, at least out through 27 hours.
I’ve been saying that this is going north. The snowflake contest will continue. Snow lovers will have to hope that next week pans out. Hopefully we will get rain out of it.
But remember the 6z/18z runs are the off hour runs. So they always differ then the 0z/12z
Even at hour 45 for 6hr prcip (which would be all snow) shows .25 liguid. Which puts it at 2-4 inches
But it might not be all snow…
Some of that could be the unicorns since the world ends on Friday.
– j/k – but oddly enough even with the more northern track the NAM gives us more QPF – so it may not make a difference unless it tracks substantially further north.
*liquid
If it’s any consolation, I remember a couple big storms just passing to the north before we finally go the Xmas Blizzard in 2009. Plus, we’re not going to have to wait until February to get accumulation snow.
Agree on the appreciation for this blog … thanks Gary at al.
We have an early morning flight out of KC on Thursday AM. We are concerned with this coming in overnight, that it may make travel up to the airport from down south hazardous. We have a room booked at the airport if we need it but would prefer to not have to use it. Any thoughts on how bad it will be in the early (5am leave out south) time frame?
Who wants to wager the National Weather Service will put the KC metro area in a Blizzard Warning for 1-3″ of snowfall? They did it in Goodland… Taking the NAM at face value, the comma-head of the low is going to track right over us – while it will only be a window of maybe 3 hours of moderate snowfall, we may have winds sustained of 30-40 MPH for those 3 hours with moderate snowfall.
I’d take that bet.. This one screams Winter Weather Advisory..
Matt
Not only do I enjoy Gary’s thoughts on the blog, I also enjoy the thoughts some of the bloggers, there are some on here with alot of weather knowledge, i love all the iput, not the negative bloggers
I enjoy the blog as well as a great resource. Appreciate the expertise displayed. Still thinking we will get 1″-3″.
I love all the bloggers! Positive, negative, black, white, straight, gay, indian, mexican, all of the bloggers are loved by me and I love the weather team. I hate to see George leaving. He is smart and funny and now no more weekend trivia
.
Warnings and advisories starting to go up (not EAX yet), probably going to show 1-4″ for the metro area.
KC should be in a advisory I would think before long. Next week is looking epic!
Winter storm warning for Manhattan ks, winter weather advisory out for topekaand Lawrence.
brad
How’s this for consistency of warning types between the Topeka and Goodland NWS offices…
Goodland forecast: Blizzard warning for 1-3 inches of snow and wind gusts to 50 mph.
Topeka forecast: Winter weather advisory for 2-4 inches of snow and wind gusts to 45 mph.
Quite a difference between the two, huh?
As I used lived in Goodland and know the office there well (wassup Lockhart?), I can tell ya that places like western KS are creepily different…they will have what is known as “brown-out” or “snirt-snizzard” conditions with as much dirt flying as snow. it’s gonna be ugly out there. i’ve seen 6 ft brown drifts melt down to 2 ft of pure mud/adobe. the wind measurements between 2m AGL and 10m AGL here is usually discernibly different, but out there not so much. It’s a freaky, far different climate and I both loved it & hated it.
Next week is still a week away- look at yesterday’s Euro vs. today’s:
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012121800®ion=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=216″
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012121812®ion=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=168″
Winter Weather Advisory for the Metro.
If you want to go retro, it’s a snow and blowing snow advisory.
It definitely would be if that were still around!
Winter Storm Warning for St. Joe and points north.
Wow, this blog really comes to life when snow is in the forecast! Love it!
Skylar – looks less confident for next week now.
I have not actually commented in a while…well over a year, mainly because the weather has been a little ho-hum (I Love Snow and a good rain) but I do read the blog when things look particularly interesting. That being said McCabe58, I agree and very well said. I am hoping for some Olathe snow but we sometimes get shafted on these events, I am finding a bit more hope with Lawrence getting a winter weather advisory. Any thoughts there? And…GEORGE IS LEAVING???? I somehow missed that announcement
Where is he going? I will miss Mr. Smiley…
George is going to the sunshine state Florida. He will be leaving in the next couple of weeks I believe if not sooner.
Beth Vaughn is going to Indiana.
What does the data look like now for tomorrow night?
Here’s a tease…check out this crazy snow video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCqEBdjaXpM
Very Interesting to see a locomotive struggle for a lack of power.
In Aurora, NE…
I lohr,
The BNSF engine is not struggling in the snow. That is a engine that is designed to remove snow from the tracks. Just like the snow blower in your garage, but a much larger scale. It has tons of power.
What is interesting is the snow that it is removing looks to be wind driven snow as the ground on the right, you can see brown dirt/weeds. Well we see this sometime this month?
Thanks for taking time to reply. Glad you watched it, but I’m one of the folks in the group, and the guys there with the railroad said it was surely struggling as illustrated by the laboring engine’s surge-bog sounds, the very noticeable dark diesel emissions that follow each laborious sound, and the fact that the machine is designed to go 6-7 mph, but was managing a few feet a minute through much of the deepest drifts. He cited the density and granularity of the blown, drifted snow as the nearly singular reason for it.
The reason we have a winter storm warning up here is because they no longer issue blowing snow warnings are blowing snow advisories. Even though we do not meet the warning criteria for snowfall, we have been placed in a winter storm warning because of the wind with the combination of snowfall the forecasted snowfall of 3 to 6 inches which in and of itself does not meet a winter storm warning. However, 3 to 6 inches of snow in conjunction with 25 mph to 35 mph winds gusting to 40 mph equal WSRNG under the new criteria.
In my opinion it is less confusing, however, old habits die hard. I am of the opinion that the numbers that were issued yesterday will in fact be the numbers that come true and we will see close 6+ in StJoe and in the KC Metro area 1 inch to 2 inches on the South with 2 to 4 on the North.
interesting NWS seems to have upped the totals for the metro, and now includes sleet. up to 3 inches for southside of metro (Olathe) where I am. And with blowing snow frozen stuff will be messy commute for sure.
Gary said 1-4 inches on the 5:00 news
Really? I think he said 1-2 for the immediate metro and a dusting to the south with heavier amounts to the north. The map looked the same as the one at the top of the blog post. No changes for now.
LOL, “another station” said a trace, but their map basically indicated nothing. Their thoughts are that a very light band of light snow between midnight and 2am… Will be fun to see how this plays out again.
I’m thinking it’s going north. I still say the snowflake contest will live to see another day.
other station is saying flurries Christmas.
So does most accurate cover only temperatures, or is it temperatures AND precipitation?
Another station says watch for Christmas day Storm.
I really do kind of have doubts to getting more than 1.5″ in Kansas City. Here’s the real picker – it’s been in the 50s today. It’s going to get to the 50s tomorrow. Yes, nights have been cool – but not cold. Rain is going to fall initially – this may help to cool the ground a bit, but the ground is going to be warm. On top of this, we will have a developing comma head moving through – problem is, it will probably only be about 80 miles in width and at most produce moderate snowfall at one location for 2-3 hours. Again – developing. Many times when comma heads are developing they are not a solid batch of moderate precipitation – there can be embedded areas of heavier precipitation, and areas of light drizzle (of freezing drizzle in this case.)
1 – Warm ground.
2 – Warm temperatures last 2 days.
3 – Short duration event. 2 to 3 hours max.
4 – Rain to start the event.
5 – Lack of any REAL artic air behind this system.
6 – Lack of matureness/organization.
What would you have said in 1996 on October 22 when we had 6-8 inches of snow and we hadn’t even had a freeze yet?
The ground will be cold enough if it snows heavy enough.
With October 22 1996 we had a healthy moisture fetch.
With 0.25 – 0.35″ of available moisture, at a average 11:1 ratio (since temperatures will be plunging significantly, it wills start higher but end up probably at 13:1) – the most snow precipitation available would be ~3.8″ if ground temperatures were below freezing and it was all snowfall. Given it may start out as 0.05 – 0.10″ of rain (NAM even hints at a few thundershowers forming over the metro,) that would severely cut into that moisture. We would have 0.20 – 0.25″ of moisture left for snowfall. Max snow then would be ~2.8″. Take away another (in best case) half inch of snow that it would be using to get the ground temperature down to freezing. – best case you’d be looking at a total of ~2.3″ of snowfall.
That storm was great! I remember driving my honda around in that. Amazingly it handled like a charm. I was plowing my own path in some places. We need a storm like that… minus the power loss.
Don’t fall into his anti snow conversations Gary
Here’s Johnny!!
Gary, how long do you expect the snow to last, duration wise?will we have any melting on Thursday, even if its 32? Sun, thanks
I think I picked the 29th for first inch… looks like next weeks Christmas possibility may slam me out of this one.
Interesting blog Gary. You and weather have sparked interests I see, 97 entries so far. I would like to pick your brain a little just outside the typical KC viewing area. Here in Jefferson County we are in the prowess of NWS Topeka and the Topeka broadcast zone. So the only way we can get you is turn our sat box off and point the antenna to KC, a real pain. But now, NWS Topeka is saying we here in Jefferson County might possibly have a small sleet event along with the snow. Thats intersting I thought, not unexpected because as this storms grow closer data is always fine tuned, and we almost always get at least a small amount of sleet with any winter storm. So I just wanted to know if you had any thoughts on a sleet impact?
David,
I would think that any sleet would be very short lived. The storm goes through a transition as it approaches and by midnight to 3 AM cold air just blasts in so any sleet would likely quickly change to snow.
Gary
#100 !!!
davidmcg,
There should not be large sleet accumulations, There should only be a brief period no more than half an hour of sleet before it changes from rain to snow.
You think so Kole? NWS Topeka has our county in a 3 hour sleet slot.
So I’ve been at work all night, is it still looking the same as Gary’s map from earlier? Any way at all us south of 70 could possibly get a little more?
David, I am by no means a weather expert, but it would make sense that what you speak of is a real possibility. What if the time frame for the temperature change takes longer? Something slows down perhaps? I dunno, just seems possible. May not be extreme, but you do not need much.
Has anyone been to this part of Kansas? Its rural and flat! The reason the blizzard warning was issued is because of the blowing snow not because of the amount. I have a Live WX website at http://www.hayskansasweather.com if anyone is interested!
Got ya bookmarked buddy, thanks for posting.
The new 00z NAM is starting to roll out now, most of it should be out in 40-45min
KCChamps can you show us a way to check on those step by step please? pretty please!!?!?! THANKS
the latest NAM closes of the low much quicker!!
this for tomorrow night? What does that mean? more snow for KC.
the new NAM is still rolling out, we will know in 15-20min!
Hope so. May need to fuel up the snowthrower
Nope save the fuel unless you are in St. Joe. Metro will only get a dusting if that. Trust me
Here, just refresh it and when the hour turns green it is ready: “http://bit.ly/WntV1X”
That powercast you showed at 6 was not that impressive….Makes me nervous to rely on the tail end nubs of storms to get snow. That can sometimes be real frustrating with a lot of people missing out. Gonna be a tough stretch tomorrow waiting for it to get here.
It is always a let down in KC! St Joe always gets the better end of these winter systems.
just looking at the new NAM, it looks like maybe 3-5″ for the metro.
Yeah, isn’t it showing about 0.5″ qpf?
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L”
yep, check this out
How do you know that??? All I see is out thru 39 hours showing 1.5″.
That’s 50% more than it had earlier; KC is in dark green close to blue if you see the link kc posted.
I’m thinking Jack Squat for Olathe!
Help. I’m completely map illiterate. What does it look like for the Leavenworth/Lansing area as far as accumulation? Thank you!
Well, here we go.. Just one run, but clearly the 00Z NAM is more encouraging than previous models have been. Snowfall totals appear greater than what has been shown for the last several runs. Now the vast majority of the metro looks to fall more in the 2-5″ range than the 1-2″ range that had previously been indicated. Once again though, we shall see.. 1 hour until the GFS starts rolling in..
Matt
Wow, I sure don’t see what you guys are seeing based on Skylar’s link. At most 1.5″ by noon on Thurs.
“http://bit.ly/WntV1X”
I think 2-3″ is a reasonable expectation with some areas eclipsing this number. Keep in mind the link you are looking at is valid at 12Z on Thursday. That is 6:00 AM Central Standard Time. The storm will still be going strong at this point.
Matt
I wasnt basing it on that link, i was going by total precip after it is cold enough to fall as snow
do you agree with my thinking rick?? if not, please feel free to let me know what your thoughts are.
Yep..
I think if every flake were to stick, we might have that much. But if you look at the NWS hourly chart, you can see that there will be a good period of time where the temp will be above freezing while snow is falling. I think that’s what the NAM model link is showing – some of that is going to melt.
“http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.20565&lon=-94.63211059570312&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical”
It’s using a formula like wxcaster. I’m not sure how it’s calculated but after looking at actual forecast precip. amounts it doesn’t seem like it matches very well, especially over Nebraska. 1.5″ is more than the last run, too.
NAM shows potential for one heavy band to give someone a lot while others get not much. Or that’s what I see on it. It definitely wants to end the snowflake contest with at least an inch for KC.
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_48HR.gif”
latest NAM SNOW map shows a 2-3″ band through the metro
Wow, that’s a wild looking map – the low snow between KC and STJ seems very odd.
Echos what I was thinking as well.. Seems reasonable..
Matt
Hey champs, that map looks like the bulk or body of the storm stays north as predicted. 2-4…..man I would like that. I will go for 1.75 of snow in Olathe. Not enough to make it a real snow event, but enough to make cars slide on the roads.
I asked earlier but got no response. What makes KCs most accurate weather? It is temperature prediction, or a combination of temperature and precipitation?
Is that Christmas storm still showing up for us?
New Blog..