Good late evening bloggers,
I am currently working on some special weather graphics including a new Powercast on 41 Action News tonight at 10 PM. This new Powercast has a good handle on what I think will happen with this storm and I think it will get you snow lovers a bit excited if you watch the show.
This is a storm that will enter the plains tomorrow afternoon and then intensify just as it passes the Kansas/Missouri state line early Thursday morning. This is where the big question lies. When exactly is this storm going to intensify?
Here is a picture of the storm at 6 PM tomorrow. I will put this into motion on the 10 PM newscast.
The GFS model was not as strong as earlier runs. There are still some concerns and we will go over the details in the morning. Have a groo night’s sleep.
Gary
come on Gary, tell us!
Seems like Gary is on the same page as several of us were with the new data this evening.
I guess I am out of the running for the contest. I picked December 25th.
Braysmama,
Don’t give up hope yet! It doesn’t look too good for you but it’s still Missouri.
I should have stuck with my original guess, December 20th.
Can’t wait to hear what you have to say Gary!!
Gary dont tease me.
You’re asking for patience? What!
141 comments on the last blog of great discussion and links! This is just what it was like when I started following it 5 years ago. Looking forward to a decent but not overbearing snow event tomorrow night.
“http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
Latest NAM SNOW map
2-3 for Parkville looks about right
I picked december 20 for the snowflake contest, I hope win. I will be shocked if gary lezak says I win the contest
brad
The GFS is coming in now.
“http://1.usa.gov/TYnAYQ”
I think Gary at 10:00 will say the storm intensify right on top of metro kc and we get 4-6 inches in metro 2-4 south and 6+ north of kc, my guess
Gary, can you post your powercast to the blog or on the 41 weather page? Out here in McLouth land we are in the Topeka broadcast zone and can’t get ya on the satellite. Can’t get ya off the antenna either. The rotor on the antenna died pointed at Topeka. Not the best time for this.
mr. lezak, (or any of the other seemingly qualified folk on here)
how much precip water will there be. the dp/rh looks inverted with more moisture to the north…skew T profiles look pretty…mehh!
also, what is the status of the hi-latitude blocking…has it begun to erode & let the pattern begin moving? my apologies for any glaring ignorance…i’m not a wx man.
Looks like up to 0.5″ qpf, some will fall as light rain but most should come in a quick burst of heavy snow.
thanks
also…wow that seems like a more southerly track to the storm! yes!
Well the 00Z GFS is a bit different than it was before as well, but not quite as aggressive as the NAM was. The trend seems to be in favor of more snow for the metro, but the GFS didn’t quite fall in line with the NAM. The NAM depicted a 2-4″ band for much of the metro, where as the GFS still seems to be more of a 1-3″ band with an isolated amount of 3+”.
Matt
i think Gary will just move the 2-4″ on his snow forecast further south
Another reason I post data and ask so many questions is that even though we are about as far north as KCI out here in McLouth, we also have a 300 foot altitude higher altitude than most of KC. Doesn’t sound like much, but it is also very flat and we have a very strong N and NW wind most of the winter. Those stroms from the NW seem to flow in very rapidly. As a courtesy however, most of the warm weather storms die out rather quickly as the climb this altitude, then regain strength as it dives back down towards Tonganoxie/Basehor. This is why we get really big snowdrifts out here in farmland. Also why they put the radar for KCI right in our backyard. We are up high on a hilltop and we can see the lights from Manhatten here.
chan 5-1 disagrees
Is the cold air going delay longer than originally thought, I heard this on author station
*Another station
No matter what we are not going to get anything major. Small time snow event that a lot of people do not know how to drive or operate in. 1-2 inches of snow handicaps a lot of people.
Especially with winds gusting over 45mph and the lack of any real snowstorm last year.
Still at work
was it any good news for snow lovers?
A little more than before Phillip. 1-4″ for the metro.
Matt
Gary,
I noticed your statement regarding the data on next week’s storm. Just curious, what time do you get to see the 00Z GFS? I guess the question applies to all of the models, but how much earlier do you get to see them than we do??
Thanks!
Matt
It passes by as an open positively tilted wave and doesn’t become big until it gets to the east; I wouldn’t worry about that though. It’s still a week away.
I did see that Skylar. A much different solution to say the very least!! My question though, is regarding the timing that the new data filters in to KSHB. I was just wondering if Gary has to wait until the model filters in from the same sources that we do, or whether he gets to see them earlier..
Matt,
I could just see that it wasn’t digging like the earlier runs. It wasn’t out that far yet. Let’s see how it looks in the morning.
so Gary’s forecast is for 1-3″ for the south side and 2-4″ on the North side
How is that good news for snow lovers?
Groo night to you as well!
I won’t be greedy, ill definitely take that! Thanks Matt.
“another station” at 9:50pm said a trace to .25 inch. Said that the “models are wrong.” I thought that was interesting. We shall see which “station” is right. Often “another station” is wrong.
This is where snow prediction truly becomes an art. Those with the wealth of experience tend to be better at it than those without as much. To me, snow prediction is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorology when it comes to accuracy within a finite space.
It’ll be interesting to see what the models that come out between 3am and 5am will say as far as amounts. Obviously this forecast is one of the trickier ones of the year because we are right on the edge of Draco. I liked Gary Lezak’s approach though, he stated 2 facts I felt like and made a pretty good prediction of how much he thought it was going to snow 1-4″. FACT 1. It is going to be very, very windy! FACT 2. There is a 100% chance of snow.
That’s another wild card. I don’t know how snowfall can be accurately be measured when winds are so strong (approximated, yes)… 1 inch can seem like a whole lot more when it’s constantly being moved. Should be an interesting day tomorrow regardless of precip type…
The new forecast discussion just came out for wunderground. h ttp://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=EAX&StateCode=MO&SafeCityName=Kansas_City
Everything they’ve said seems resonable to me, though I don’t get how they’re now introducing sleet into the mix (no pun intended). I would expect a period of sleet with a rapid transition such as this to be present before a total changeover. The lower atmospheric conditions (<700 mb) certainly warrant it. I'm thinking 1-2" in my location (near KCI).
That was the Afternoon AFD that came out at 3. All they did was update the Aviation thing which is what they usually do every 6 hours or so.
new blog