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New Data Is Impressive So Far….9:15 PM Update

Good late evening bloggers,

I am currently working on some special weather graphics including a new Powercast on 41 Action News tonight at 10 PM.  This new Powercast has a good handle on what I think will happen with this storm and I think it will get you snow lovers a bit excited if you watch the show.

This is a storm that will enter the plains tomorrow afternoon and then intensify just as it passes the Kansas/Missouri state line early Thursday morning. This is where the big question lies.  When exactly is this storm going to intensify? 

Here is a picture of the storm at 6 PM tomorrow. I will put this into motion on the 10 PM newscast.

The GFS model was not as strong as earlier runs. There are still some concerns and we will go over the details in the morning.  Have a groo night’s sleep.

Gary

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45 comments to New Data Is Impressive So Far….9:15 PM Update

  • Kcchamps

    come on Gary, tell us! :)

  • mattmaisch

    Seems like Gary is on the same page as several of us were with the new data this evening.

  • braysmama

    I guess I am out of the running for the contest. I picked December 25th.

  • Kole Christian

    Braysmama,

    Don’t give up hope yet! It doesn’t look too good for you but it’s still Missouri.

  • KCWeather

    Can’t wait to hear what you have to say Gary!!

  • OlatheMatt

    Gary dont tease me.

  • weatherbro

    You’re asking for patience? What!

  • Skylar

    141 comments on the last blog of great discussion and links! This is just what it was like when I started following it 5 years ago. Looking forward to a decent but not overbearing snow event tomorrow night. :)

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    Latest NAM SNOW map

  • Kole Christian

    2-3 for Parkville looks about right

  • weatherman brad

    I picked december 20 for the snowflake contest, I hope win. I will be shocked if gary lezak says I win the contest

    brad

  • Skylar

    The GFS is coming in now. :)

    “http://1.usa.gov/TYnAYQ”

  • ChiefsFan

    I think Gary at 10:00 will say the storm intensify right on top of metro kc and we get 4-6 inches in metro 2-4 south and 6+ north of kc, my guess

  • davidmcg

    Gary, can you post your powercast to the blog or on the 41 weather page? Out here in McLouth land we are in the Topeka broadcast zone and can’t get ya on the satellite. Can’t get ya off the antenna either. The rotor on the antenna died pointed at Topeka. Not the best time for this.

  • l lohr

    mr. lezak, (or any of the other seemingly qualified folk on here)

    how much precip water will there be. the dp/rh looks inverted with more moisture to the north…skew T profiles look pretty…mehh!

    also, what is the status of the hi-latitude blocking…has it begun to erode & let the pattern begin moving? my apologies for any glaring ignorance…i’m not a wx man.

  • l lohr

    also…wow that seems like a more southerly track to the storm! yes!

  • mattmaisch

    Well the 00Z GFS is a bit different than it was before as well, but not quite as aggressive as the NAM was. The trend seems to be in favor of more snow for the metro, but the GFS didn’t quite fall in line with the NAM. The NAM depicted a 2-4″ band for much of the metro, where as the GFS still seems to be more of a 1-3″ band with an isolated amount of 3+”.

    Matt

  • Kcchamps

    i think Gary will just move the 2-4″ on his snow forecast further south

  • davidmcg

    Another reason I post data and ask so many questions is that even though we are about as far north as KCI out here in McLouth, we also have a 300 foot altitude higher altitude than most of KC. Doesn’t sound like much, but it is also very flat and we have a very strong N and NW wind most of the winter. Those stroms from the NW seem to flow in very rapidly. As a courtesy however, most of the warm weather storms die out rather quickly as the climb this altitude, then regain strength as it dives back down towards Tonganoxie/Basehor. This is why we get really big snowdrifts out here in farmland. Also why they put the radar for KCI right in our backyard. We are up high on a hilltop and we can see the lights from Manhatten here.

  • ChiefsFan

    Is the cold air going delay longer than originally thought, I heard this on author station

  • ChiefsFan

    *Another station

  • OlatheMatt

    No matter what we are not going to get anything major. Small time snow event that a lot of people do not know how to drive or operate in. 1-2 inches of snow handicaps a lot of people.

  • McCabe58

    Still at work :( was it any good news for snow lovers?

  • mattmaisch

    Gary,

    I noticed your statement regarding the data on next week’s storm. Just curious, what time do you get to see the 00Z GFS? I guess the question applies to all of the models, but how much earlier do you get to see them than we do??

    Thanks!

    Matt

    • Skylar

      It passes by as an open positively tilted wave and doesn’t become big until it gets to the east; I wouldn’t worry about that though. It’s still a week away.

      • mattmaisch

        I did see that Skylar. A much different solution to say the very least!! My question though, is regarding the timing that the new data filters in to KSHB. I was just wondering if Gary has to wait until the model filters in from the same sources that we do, or whether he gets to see them earlier..

    • Matt,

      I could just see that it wasn’t digging like the earlier runs. It wasn’t out that far yet. Let’s see how it looks in the morning.

  • Kcchamps

    so Gary’s forecast is for 1-3″ for the south side and 2-4″ on the North side

  • weatherbro

    How is that good news for snow lovers?

  • Kole Christian

    Groo night to you as well!

  • McCabe58

    I won’t be greedy, ill definitely take that! Thanks Matt.

  • beckysma

    “another station” at 9:50pm said a trace to .25 inch. Said that the “models are wrong.” I thought that was interesting. We shall see which “station” is right. Often “another station” is wrong.

  • MCIRamp

    This is where snow prediction truly becomes an art. Those with the wealth of experience tend to be better at it than those without as much. To me, snow prediction is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorology when it comes to accuracy within a finite space.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    It’ll be interesting to see what the models that come out between 3am and 5am will say as far as amounts. Obviously this forecast is one of the trickier ones of the year because we are right on the edge of Draco. I liked Gary Lezak’s approach though, he stated 2 facts I felt like and made a pretty good prediction of how much he thought it was going to snow 1-4″. FACT 1. It is going to be very, very windy! FACT 2. There is a 100% chance of snow.

    • MCIRamp

      That’s another wild card. I don’t know how snowfall can be accurately be measured when winds are so strong (approximated, yes)… 1 inch can seem like a whole lot more when it’s constantly being moved. Should be an interesting day tomorrow regardless of precip type…

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    The new forecast discussion just came out for wunderground. h ttp://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=EAX&StateCode=MO&SafeCityName=Kansas_City

    • MCIRamp

      Everything they’ve said seems resonable to me, though I don’t get how they’re now introducing sleet into the mix (no pun intended). I would expect a period of sleet with a rapid transition such as this to be present before a total changeover. The lower atmospheric conditions (<700 mb) certainly warrant it. I'm thinking 1-2" in my location (near KCI).

      • Weatherman Kumke

        That was the Afternoon AFD that came out at 3. All they did was update the Aviation thing which is what they usually do every 6 hours or so.