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New Data Is Coming In

Good evening bloggers,

9:30 PM Update:

Our latest in house model has this forecast for the band of snow on Tuesday.  This is farther north than the one map I showed earlier. Jeff Penner will be here through the morning as we track this developing area of snow on Tuesday:

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5:30 P Mupdate below:

Here is what I came into this afternoon. I called up one of our microcasts/powercasts from our in-house computer model and this is what it shows fro 6 AM in the morning:

1

This is rather obviously going to be a small scale feature and it is suspect.  But, the new NAM model just came out and supports this solution.

Okay, here is what I am thinking at the moment:

  1. There is a system that I can now see entering northwestern Montana and Northeastern Washington.  This system is zipping our way and will cross overhead during the day on Tuesday. It is a very small scale feature, but there may still be a thin band of snow along it’s path tomorrow as you can see above.
  2. Thursday’s system is caught in the change and block that is rapidly intensifying. This system may spread a developing area of precipitation on Thursday over our area, but it should weaken as it passes by. I don’t have confidence in this one yet.
  3. The powerful storm potential is with the main storm that will likely be forming by the weekend. The latest GFS model is so different than previous runs I am throwing it out for now. This solution would draw in a lot of warm air Friday and Saturday. The block is forming strongly, and I favor a farther south solution. We have to pay very close attention to this weekend storm as it is the time of the year that Kansas City’s biggest snowstorm hit in 1912 on March 23rd-24th with 25 inches of snow.  Someone will likely get a lot of snow by this weekend storm. It is just too early to pin down if it will be near Kansas City or not

Have a great evening. I will go over the details on 41 Action News.

Gary

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87 comments to New Data Is Coming In

  • Theo1

    Really? This seems kind of sketchy. Last few times models showed snow at the last second when previous runs suggested nothing, that’s all we ended up with. Nothing. I won’t believe it until there’s a band of snow over my house.

    Also, what the NAM shows is for 12 hours later than your powercast.

  • rred95

    Gary said it was “suspect” in the blog, thats basically what you just said in your post.

  • Theo1

    So who’s betting on a watch being issued?

    “MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSIST IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF RAIN THEN SNOW
    FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK…MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
    CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS PROG A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO FORM
    ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT…WHICH WILL BRING A FETCH OF
    WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
    SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
    OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS. GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
    WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
    APPROACH THE AREA LEAVING US IN COLD AIR WITH EASTERLY WINDS.
    ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT ON 290 K TO 305 K THETA E SURFACES SHOW GOOD
    ASCENT WITH NEARLY COMPLETE SATURATION THROUGH 500 MB. THIS WILL
    ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
    EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
    INDICATE THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS
    SYSTEM…BUT GIVEN HOW WARM/MOIST THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE WILL HOLD
    OFF ON GETTING TOO SPECIFIC REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS. IT DOES LOOK AS
    THOUGH THE STRONG FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE THE
    ATMOSPHERE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
    PRECIPITATION. SHOULD THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
    INDICATE ALL SNOW…ITS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
    KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI COULD SEE DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
    THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN…GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
    PLACEMENT AND THERMAL PROFILE WILL HOLD OFF ON TRYING TO NAIL
    SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.”

  • weather

    Check back in Tuesday at 3 am and the blog will have an update lol.

  • weather

    Who cares if it snows? I mea it’s not going to stick around for long. So let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

    • Theo1

      I enjoy snow, just not the hype. The new GFS also shows some light snow to the NW, but this is March. Light afternoon snow showers are not going to accumulate.

      • kcpurpledog

        What hype Theo? This is a weather blog, isn’t it?

        • Theo1

          Because one model is slightly supported by the off-runs, suddenly we’re getting a few inches of snow tomorrow morning (as Gary presented it on air)? It feels kind of presumptuous. If I wake up and see white, I will be the first to say good job.

          • kcpurpledog

            Theo, I think, in this situation, Gary is just giving all the weather lovers information, especially new information, and not hyping anything. Don’t you think? That’s my take. I honestly don’t see any hype because he says this is a model run, but it is suspect. I think it is just reporting w/o saying he agrees or really disagrees at this point. You don’t seem to think that right?

  • kcpurpledog

    I’m confused. The map above says Tuesday at 6:30 AM. Is this for then, or is this the end of week storm coming in. I didn’t know anything was forecast tomorrow morning.

  • Theo1

    The new GFS has almost nothing for Thursday’s “storm”.

    Poof…

  • Emaw

    If the new GFS shows almost nothing it will immediately be thrown out as wrong and another model showing more snow will be crowned king.

  • PILOT MISER

    Te GFS puts the storm well to our northwest. With heavy snow 30 inches over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. There is a sharp cutoff line at the northern MO border with large snowfall totals.

    We have alot more runs to go as it gets closer and then be able to compare to the NAM. If we get a few more runs like the 18z then we will be out if the path. But one run either way doesn’t give many data points.

  • mowermike

    Actually, the latest GFS has a major snowstorm, but north of here now. It’s pumping out big time moisture. Should it verify, we may go to rain on Saturday or so… long ways to go on this one.

  • Skylar

    Yeah, this shows only 1-3″ for us but goes crazy off to the north.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013031818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=159″

  • Dobber

    What are the other models saying?

  • erock89

    can someone give me a list of when the nam and gfs come out? Is it like every 6 hours? I’m new to this but find it very exciting

  • HeatMiser

    Gary just said on the news cast that somewhere in the plains could end up with a major blizzard from this storm on Thurs/Fri.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.weather2020.com/blog/”

    good info Gary!

  • Emaw

    I rest my case.

  • Emaw

    See my first entry which was made prior to Gary’s 5:45 update

    • kcpurpledog

      Based on what I read, the NWS (as of just before 4:00) is thinking some decent accumulation. Maybe they haven’t caught up to the latest model??? Sure seems to be trending the way of snow. Everything they talk about is KC to Moberly and south, not north. All of the discussions at local NWS offices from Omaha to Sious Falls, SD, and others sure indicates that they have less of a chance of this snow coming in late week to hit them than us.

  • kcpurpledog

    There is an upper low forecast to form in the northern rockies over the weekend. Is this the one that maybe is the one north of here that everyone is referring to? Our storm is still on track for Thursday.

  • erock89

    Thanks kcchamps!

  • Emaw

    Theo1, I’m not trying to make anybody mad, I made a prediction on the potential reaction to the latest GFS, and was right. The thing is I thought it would be a fellow blogger , not Gary immediately throwing it out but whatever , you guys are killing me , don’t take this stuff so seriously man!

    • Kcchamps

      seeing as the past 2 days worth of GFS models had the storm A LOT further south, then suddenly for one model run the 18z has the storm WAY further north, it would make sense to sort of disregard it and see if the next few runs do the same

  • HeatMiser

    The latest NWS forecast for KC is……Snowmagedon!

  • MrsBDubs

    What do you guys think about the airport this weekend? I want to go on my Spring Break (no pun intended) vacation!!!

  • HeatMiser

    Um..spring break is this week dude…so it will be about over this weekend.

  • PILOT MISER

    I think we are going to have a temperature problem for this snow event. The 6 o’clock highs and lows were above freezing on Saturday when the main storm system would arrive. I guess it depends on a Friday night vice Saturday afternoon arrival.

  • Emaw

    This is just a question, I’m not trying to make anybody mad. If I understand this correctly Gary said he is throwing out the latest GFS run regarding the Friday / Saturday storm but yet he adjusted temps for that time frame to above freezing as Pilot pointed out, why?

  • mgsports

    I would say Front way North of area so like between 60′s and 80′s here.

  • Emaw

    I like how you roll!

  • spaceotter

    Funny, very funny.

    “http://www.theonion.com/articles/punxsutawney-phil-beheaded-for-inaccurate-predicti,31712/”

  • HeatMiser

    Prepare now KC for a 3 day long raging blizzard!!!!

    • spaceotter

      As long as it starts mid day on Thursday I’m good with that. I’ll get paid for my work day and then have Friday through Monday off. I can enjoy that. :) Do you have anything that predicts this three day blizzard or is this just the HeatMiser’s alter ego wishing for a mega snow storm?

      • HeatMiser

        Half and half. Gary said somewhere in the plains this weekend there could be a major blizzard…including KC as a possibility. On the other hand…HeatMiser want blizzard!!!!

  • Dobber

    They need to update the 7day. It’s still showing snow, but temps are well above freezing

  • Kole Christian

    Hearmiser

  • Kole Christian

    Hearmiser,

    Could you post a like to the NWS snow map?

    • Kole Christian

      Link?

    • HeatMiser

      I did…its awaiting moderation. Go to google, search for and click on National Weather Service, then click on NE Kansas on that giant U.S. map, then when it pulls up NE KS, look towards the bottom of the screen for a map with blue and green on it…click it to enlarge snow map.

  • Dobber

    When’s the new data out?

  • Kole Christian

    Thanks, do keep in mind just use quotations with link to avoid moderation

  • Skylar

    The new NAM did trend towards more snow like Gary’s map indicates, just slightly further north.

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif”

    • I just updated the latest in-house model and posted it to this blog entry. Check it out. It does have the snow farther north. Now, I do believe this band of snow is going to form tomorrow morning and last into the afternoon. The exact location will be something we should be able to figure out in the morning.

  • kiwifruit

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=top

    I think this is what Heat Miser is referring to.

  • kiwifruit

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=top”

    I think this is what Heat Miser is referring to.

    • HeatMiser

      Yup, that’s it. Thanks, I didn’t know about the quotes trick to avoid moderation. Now I know!

      • kiwifruit

        I just learned myself… Didn’t work the first time I tired then noticed Skylar always posts with quotes so I gave that a try…

  • Skylar

    The new NAM is also looking much better for Thursday!

    Old: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif”

    New: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif”

  • HeatMiser

    Heat Miser want big snowstorm!

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM has 6+” for the metro thurs/fri

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013031900&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=081″

  • McCabe58

    This is a copy paste from the last blog… If someone could help me out that’d be awesome.

    “Hey Gary I’m on my way to Branson for the week as I’m typing this. Is it looking like mostly rain down that far south? I just saw the nws post on fb that the best chance for accumulating snow would be south of highway 18 in missouri. Not sure exactly where that is. Anyone that can look at the latest models and help me out that’d be awesome. I’d rather have to deal with rain than snow being out of town and all. Gonna suck to have to come back to an unshoveled driveway!”

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif”

    NAM snow map shows 5-8″ for most of the metro

  • PILOT MISER

    McCabe. Looks like frozen precip according to the latest NAM. All the way down to the AR border.

  • erock89

    Gary when you say second storm are you talking about Saturday? Is Thursday/Friday the main storm?

    • kiwifruit

      I believe he is talking about the Thursday event. The first storm is that arriving tomorrow morning (at least according to 41 Action News this eveining).

  • Kole Christian

    I’m going to bed, too early to stay up and watch the models.

  • Kole Christian

    The big storm is suppose to be this weekend…

  • Skylar

    The GFS is also showing more snow tomorrow

  • rred95

    if its 40 tomorrow 1 inch of snow is a non event. No hazards on roads. Wont even notice it.

  • jgbrazil

    Great thoughts so far guys. I feel like a few of the knowledgable regulars are missing tho…this week is looking real interesting!

  • Skylar

    Okay so the new GFS has it up in the Dakotas now. Tomorrow this storm will be in Canada with KC’s highs in the 80s and severe wx possible :D

  • CreepingDeath

    indeed Sky

  • Kcchamps

    with the AO going WAY negative, a more southern track seems likely

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013031906&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=132″

    GFS has trended MUCH further south than the previous 2 runs, could be the start of a trend

    Take alook at the ECMWF model

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013031900&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=144″

  • Dobber

    The suspense……