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New Data Is Coming In!

Good late evening bloggers,

Whew, the blog is a bit crazy tonight with your comments. I just want everyone to take a deep breath and let’s share this storm and weather experience as the storm approaches.  This storm is still 48 hours away from starting. There are many unusual characteristics to this storm system. The NAM model has come out quite snowy tonight. This is a very unusual set-up, but I am currently working on my first snowfall forecast map.

This storm does have the potential to produce significant amounts of snow and possibly sleet. Here is a forecast map from our in-house computer model valid at just after 2 AM Thursday morning.  The bright pink to purple colors show heavy snow, while the red is sleet.  This is just the beginning of the storm system.

2

Check back in soon… 

Gary

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90 comments to New Data Is Coming In!

  • heavysnow

    This thing needs to produce snow for all of Missouri, we are due for snow.

  • heavysnow

    Gary,

    Why is this storm being projected to go from New Mexico to Iowa? You never see this type of track

    • We have had tracks like this before, but you don’t get snow from this type of track unless the conditions are just right. Arctic air will flow our way tomorrow night into Wednesday around the Great Lakes storm system, and this Southern California system just happens to be perfectly timed to create the conditions for a wide spread winter event.

  • Kole Christian

    I’m going with 4 inches.

  • weather

    This is an unusual storm? Say it aint so MO.

  • HeatMiser

    I’m going with 7-8 inches for Lawrence. 6-7 inches for KC.

  • weather

    My prediction is a little to somewhat more then a little to a little less then a lot to more or less an inch to 10 but less then 20. Got it? Good. No more questions please.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I think we will see 9 inches with this storm…..

  • ChiefsFan

    I still think Gary’s snowfall forecast map at 10:00 will be: 10-12 north of kc, metro kc 6-10, south of kc, 5-8

  • HeatMiser

    What do you predict Gary will predict snowfall wise at 10:00 for KC?

  • stjoeattorney

    STJOE 12-15 MCI 8-10 DOWNTWOWN 5-8

  • Twistersis

    “Another channel” just said more sleet than snow then showed a remote by the highway (check!) AND a woman in the grocery store talking about how she was “stocking up” for the storm (check!). Hold on to your hats, here we go! The salt barn can’t be far behind!

    • Skylar

      KSHB did a segment about how crews were going around attaching generators to stop lights. I think that one’s the winner. :)

  • weather

    Sleet will be the wild card in all of this. Just a 1/2 of sleet will cut into the snow totals quite a bit. Time to sit back and wait. Should be one for the books. If it pans out Gary you need just 1 more to hit the 2-4 in Feb.

  • weather

    *1/2 inch of sleet*

  • weatherkcmo

    I’m anxious to hear Gary’s predictions. This next hour needs to go by fast!

    • weather

      I can guarentee that the predictions will change tomorrow at 5 and 10 and then on Wednesday at 5 and 10 as “new data” rolls in.

  • Kole Christian

    4 INCHES PRIVATE PILE!!! 4 INCHES!!!

  • weather

    This is so exciting. A storm that may produce more then a dusting. I’m so tickled I could pee.

  • I think 3″-5″ is a good call for the KC area as of right now.

    • RickMckc

      Wow, I don’t know – after seeing that Accuwx video you put up last blog, I wonder if there will be snow at all. That guy was making the same point f00dl3 did earlier today. A storm going to the west of KC and producing heavy snow here? Hmmmm.

  • dpollard

    I think Gary will say along the I-70 corridor that 2″-4″ of snow/sleet will fall, north and west of 1-35 and 70 will have 4″-8″ and from St.Joe north and west 8″-12″.

  • blueflash

    Another station says 3-6 metro, 6 for northern Mo. Our totals only held down because of sleet mixed in. Will be a mess to clean up with subfreezing temps for a couple of days. Snowblowers useless in sleet.

  • weatherfreaker

    Does anyone think that a WSW will be issued overnight or by morning for KC Metro area? I’m a little surprised that has not already happened since KS has several watches issued so far…

    • blueflash

      Definitely. We are just farther east, therefore the later onset.

    • Skylar

      They’re issued area wide 48 hours in advance. Probably won’t start until late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning so they’ll likely issue by tomorrow morning.

      • weatherman brad

        the nws will probably put out a winter storm watch for the kc metro by tonight if the new data is trending the right way or tomorrow early morning.

        brad

    • Kcchamps

      they are mot likely waiting on the 0z models(data coming out now) to come out first before issuing a wath

  • Kole Christian

    Gary,

    Will you give both snowfall and sleet accumulation predictions?

  • dpollard

    Gary, part of me wonders if in the core of heaviest snowfall if the vertical drag it can cause would be enough to pull down sub-freezing air and erode the warm nose of above freezing air? Certainly the depth of that warm nose would be critical. Do any of the models take this into consideration? So that in an area where it appears like it should be sleet could actually be snow?

  • RickMckc

    FWIW 0z NAM snowfall (Kuchera calcs):

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif”

    • Its doing what I kinda figured it would do. The storm is going farther south but its shifting north quicker. So the heavy snow will be through Kansas and Nebraska. Not looking good for Kansas City. This is a trend I have noticed all day with the models. If this keeps up over the next 36hrs, KC may not get much out of this. Still have to watch it.

      • HeatMiser

        LoL..what’re you smoking Honeycutt? It’s going to be a good snow storm for us.

        • I spoke with the NWS tonight and they said they are seeing what I said as well. What Im talking about is snow though. I didnt make that very clear but I think sleet is going to be the winner with this. We will see snow but I think sleet is going to really cut our snow totals around KC.

          • HeatMiser

            Funny, the NWS guy who was interviewed in the Lawrence Journal World today said the opposite, that it will be a mostly snow event…at least here in Lawrence.

            • Thats 2 counties west of Kansas City. So yes, the Topeka NWS is going to say that. Here in Jackson county MO the totals are going to be cut. And south of KC will have mostly sleet. Its all about where you live.

  • hushpook

    So Gary, which greenhouse gases emitted by man caused the glaciers to melt, creating the Great Lakes?

  • weatherkcmo

    That map doesn’t look that impressive for the metro. Trending in the direction of less snow maybe?

  • stormchaser

    This will be a bust. Just. Like. Every. Other. Predicted. Snowstorm. Stop feeding the hype. The worst snow “storms” are the 1″er’s that turn the roadways hazardous when the city doesn’t salt.

    • HeatMiser

      Shhh stormchaser…you don’t know what you’re talking about.

      Another KC channel just said he was conservatively saying 3-6 inches for the KC area, but if it stays mostly snow and not sleet….Katie bar the door…3-6 won’t be able to hold a candle to what the totals will be.

  • heavysnow

    New GFS looks like a lot of sleet from KC to Columbia to St Louis

    KC is right on the edge of snow

  • Kole Christian

    KC has been on the edge of heavy snow totals for the past three days, it is amazing the consistancy they have had with this storm. 4 inches.

  • snowplowman

    This storm is unusually unusual………that just means there will be 4-6″ with sharp cutoff line so 1-3″ here then it narrows and strong upper winds tear it apart…….could go either way……then…..”POOF”. No wait…that is usual.

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Gary, where is your snowfall projections map? It’s ten o’clock.

    • Skylar

      The weather segment usually starts around 10:17, but he probably wont be able to post them on here until after the newscast.

  • Skylar

    So there have been over 450 comments today

  • mattmaisch

    Latest SREF for MKC.. Totals going up.

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130218&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.04025625012522&mLON=-94.4333998046875&mTYP=roadmap”

  • blizzard68

    I say the map shows LV getting 1 to 3

  • storm00

    Mower, come on now you have 40 people but can’t pay vendors? Again you attack people with this all bark no bit nonsense .

  • Kcchamps

    gary’s snow map has the metro getting 3-6″

  • weatherkcmo

    That’s considered significant? Shows how uneventful the last few winters have been.

  • HeatMiser

    Yeah, it’ll change over the next two days, but at least we have a starting point.

  • HeatMiser

    It’s only that low if sleet knocks down the totals significantly. If we don’t get much sleet you can double those totals.

  • weatherfreaker

    Did he make any mention of WSW coming?

  • weatherkcmo

    Knowing how these things usually turn out, I highly doubt those totals will increase. Just the wrong spot.

  • HeatMiser

    http://www.wibw.com/weather

    Topeka station has us in the 4-10 inch range. Huge diff between 4 and 10, so they must be very unsure how much sleet we will get.

  • Kcchamps

    If you look at the latest NAM snow map the 8-10″ amounts are only about a half county away

  • weatherkcmo

    For the significant snow accumulation. Hint of sarcasm maybe?

    • HeatMiser

      yeah, but how would you know we are in the wrong spot for snow accumulation..we dont even know the exact track of this storm yet. A slight variation could give us little or a whole bunch. No way to know yet if we are in the “wrong spot”.

  • weatherkcmo

    The 3-4″ amounts are just as close.

  • kobecobra76

    great report on global warming tonight

  • Kole Christian

    Sorry, I just lit a tank of gas on fire, what’s this all about, humans causing global warming. Scientist are skewing the numbers worse than Rany Jazayerli does with baseball stats.

  • craigmac

    I believe Eastern Jackson County should not get too excited. This going to be West and North. Great snow for St. Joe.

  • weatherkcmo

    The low is tracking north of here and the sleet will cut into totals. That’s what I’ve gathered from every weather report I’ve seen. It seems like there will also be a sharp cut off in regards to the snow totals. Who knows. I want to get blasted just as much as any of the other snow lovers.

  • weatherkcmo

    So is Gary going to post the snow totals map?

  • McCabe58

    Still thinking mostly snow out of this. I don’t think the sleet will cut into the totals too much. A solid 5-8″ for most of the viewing area seems about right.

  • chiefs

    Nws just posted there nighty update. And didn’t put us in the winter storm watch yet….

  • weatherkcmo

    We’ll probably be in a WWA by Wednesday or a WSW tomorrow morning.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_75HR.gif”

    latest GFS has a solid 6-8″ for the metro

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    zoomed in look at the GFS

  • weatherkcmo

    New blog.