New Data & How Much Rain Do You Think Will Fall?

Good afternoon bloggers,

How much rain do you think will fall from this storm system?  The latest NAM model just came out with about 1/2″ of rain near downtown, with higher amounts southwest. Our in-house computer model just came out with these totals:


The GFS came out with the axis of heaviest rain northwest of I-35, as opposed to this solution above. I don’t have a really good feel for this yet. I will make a final rainfall forecast at 10 PM tonight. The next two storm systems will have to be monitored closely for some morning showers and thunderstorms Sunday, and possibly some snow Tuesday.  Have a nice evening.


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26 comments to New Data & How Much Rain Do You Think Will Fall?

  • SnowComando

    Next week storms starting to show up.



    I am saying .31 for PC

  • sedsinkc

    0.22 at KCI, 0.34 at my house in KC North.

  • Theo

    Mike, per KCI (or does my forecast have to be what you say falls in your yard):

    January 28, 2013 at 1:08 PM
    May see some flakes in the air Wednesday, but no accumulation. (Hit) Also, may hear some rumbles of thunder tomorrow, but less than a 10th of an inch of rain. (miss – KCI had .59)Main part of the storm will be east. Hit – East Metro had over 1 inch.

    January 10, 2013 at 6:54 AM
    Pathetic is an understatement. Won’t even get a tenth in KC. (Miss-KCI got .24 (still way below forecasted rain-depending on which forecast you go with. Anywhere from .35 to over an inch))

    January 11, 2013 at 1:26 PM
    There is no arctic air from now to 21 days out. Temps will only go below average 2 or 3 days during the next 3 weeks (Miss – had 7). NO SNOW!! That puts us into February. Winter only has 4 weeks left by then. (Hit – we had a trace of snow from Jan 11th to Jan 29th. 1 inch on the 30th. None since.)

    Data is more than forecast models, Mike. I would rather debate than argue, but you have no debatable points.

    I’m not a meteorologist. I don’t mow lawns, except my own.

    • kcpurpledog

      No really cares to read your banter. You are certainly not a meteorologist, but you definitely want to challenge the meteorologist behind this blog and the people who support him. You also seem to want people to think you are a meteorologist. While you are certainly entitled to your opinions, there is a way to have a difference of opinion different than the awful way most people on this blog think you go about voicing yours. You blog so much on here, it seems you think this is Theo’s blog. Do you have anything else to do? Most would prefer you keep the non-weather and pointed comments at people to yourself. That, or just do us a favor and go away.

      • Theo

        As with you and the rest of Gary’s minions (see Skylar below), being a detractor makes me a target. I’m OK with that. I don’t post on here NEARLY as much as your beloved Mower man. Don’t read my posts if it gets your panties bound up.

        • Dobber

          Whose minion troop do you belong to Todd?

        • Skylar

          Going around criticizing people and calling them things is doesn’t contribute anything, I’m not defending Gary. If you posted more about what you expect to happen in the weather and otherwise, you’d be fine. :)

    • Skylar

      You know, usually if a person doesn’t think a news source is providing accurate information, they stop following it instead of reading it and complaining about it all the time.


    Cause I am not afraid to play armchair met.

    I think we wi have two off cycle events with snow on the 17 and 20 th of Feb. I also think we will get some light trace wraparound snow on the night of 10 th. early morning of 11 th. we will get light precip(rain) on the 10 th to start out.

  • sedsinkc

    If you believe the new GFS and NAM, we are going to get a nice rain late tonight/tomorrow morning. I am surprised at how far to the NW the new GFS places the heavy rainfall, from Salina KS to around St. Joe to far NW Missouri.

    • mowermike


      YEP! GFS does roll a bit further to the NW. At any rate, looks like a good .25-1.00 for the 4-county metro. It also shows that storm for Tuesday night being the frozen type. We’ll see how that trends….

      I say .70 to .85 for total raifall tonight.


    Looks like the GFS has solidly bought off on the winter storm scenario #1. Been consistent last few days with all snow going well north of KC area.

    I am about ready to throw in the towel on any snow falling in Feb. the last hope is the week of 17-24 th. that’s it. If we do not get snow then there is no way we will get 2-4 snows in February.

    • mowermike


      I wouldn’t give up just yet, lots a cold air forecast starting next week and beyond….surely we can get a few snows before Feb. ends. Nonetheless, we’re in a more active pattern now and that is some very good news.

  • Emaw

    Hope I didn’t jinx us, I cleaned out the gutters yesterday, another .50″ or so would be nice. Snow and arctic air are all but over for us, barring a small event here or there that won’t last long.

  • HeatMiser

    Snow and arctic air are all but over for us? When did it ever start? Two pathetic winters in a row…that sucks! A couple of inches once or twice and a day or two of arctic are don’t count.

  • Emaw

    Good point HeatMiser . Although I’m kinda partial to the pathetic winters!


    The 01z RAP has very little rain reaching the KC metro. Moved off south and east of us. Not sure which model to believe.

  • ksloco

    I do not post very much. I do love reading all the weather comments. It really is a neat place to visit. Im glad they have taken alot of hate out of it. Its a good thing. Everyone has enough drama in their lives but, some seem to crave it. There is nothing wrong with disagreement but, if you are going to disagree show some character in doing so

  • thomasmidwest

    Imagine living in boston they might get 40 inches of snow in one storm that is insane

  • davidmcg

    Sprinkles have started here in Jefferson County KS, primarily in and around Valley Falls and Meriden. Hope real rain makes it over to the McLouth/OSkaloosa area, instead of fading out right over Perry Lake like it did all last summer and fall.

  • RickMckc

    That’s THUNDER baby!!! I-29 & 64th!! RAIN TOO!!

  • ChiefsFan

    It just started raining here in downtown kc

  • grassmankc

    .13″ in Greenwood MO so far this morning.

  • kellyanne67

    It was nice to let the dog out this morning and hear it raining. It was coming down pretty consistently on my way downtown. I’m hoping it lasts like this most of the day. As for the snow, how’s it looking for the rest of the month?

    You know I haven’t been watching this blog all that much because of the competition to prove each other wrong, point out faults, criticize, and then it got cleaned up until now…What is the point of saying “you were wrong”? Seriously…if you don’t like what is said here, go away.