Good evening bloggers,
It’s Friday Night In The Big Town! Does anyone want me to write up a discussion on this next storm tonight?
Okay, and first of all I would like to thank everyone, all of you bloggers out there, for helping create such a positive environment for us to share our exciting weather. We just had an impacting storm system and this winter has come together to actually be a pretty good one for us weather enthusiasts. The blog set a record, well, really, it shattered the record for number of page views on Wednesday, as the storm approached. We had over 125,000 page views on just that one day.
We are just recovering from experiencing a major snowstorm and another one is already threatening our area. A VERY STRONG storm system is going to form over the southern and central plains states by Monday. Take a look at the latest NAM model solution for this storm valid at 6 PM Monday:
The upper low is forecast to develop over Oklahoma, and the position that this latest NAM model is showing is almost a perfect position for Kansas City to again be near the Bulls-eye of this storm system. There are differences when comparing this storm to the one we just experienced. The last storm developed near southern California and then went through a transition as it moved out into the plains. This storm will likely develop/form and then intensify rapidly as it moves into Oklahoma. And as a result the surface storm will be strengthening as well. Take a look at the surface forecast:
Check out the flow from the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana into the storm system. This will be another unusual set-up for us with tremendous amounts of low level moisture available for the storm. This storm will likely produce near blizzard conditions where it is snowing and severe thunderstorms farther south. There could be tornado watches and Blizzard warnings just about a state apart.
The precipitation forecast for the NAM model is rather significant with Kansas City near 1 inch or more liquid and it is all snow. ONE BIG FACTOR already is that it will be warmer with this storm. It is looking like the temperature will be closer to 32 degrees during the event compared to 19 to 23 degrees in this last event. If we really do get the snow the ratio will likely be no higher than 10 to 1. Here is the precipitation forecast for just the 12 hours ending Tuesday morning.
Now bloggers, please understand that this is a storm that is now in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Let’s see how the models trend, but right now the potential for another impacting major winter storm is high. By tomorrow we will learn a lot more. Have a great Friday Night! I am on in a few minutes and must get one special graphic made for the show.
Gary
Yes that would be great Gary!
Yes sir!!!
heck yea Gary looking at the new NAM now Wichita looks to get blasted
Yes, please!
Who would say no to that? xD
The new NAM is better for snow again: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif”
Well, if you’re bored… Ya know we’ll read it!!!!!!!!
New NAM is impressive… Wichita gets another 16+ inches.
Another 8 inch pounding headed our way.
That’s what she wishes she could say.
Yes would love to here your thoughts
No, I know what it’s going to do, 14 – 18.
14-18″!? I don’t know how on earth to read models…I just read what all of you say and go with the consensus. That sounds huge, Emaw! Another couples days for a stay-cation at home!
Is this system supposed to have freezing rain/ice with it? If something big is coming, I should make sure I’m prepped and ready for a power outage. Now that my road has finally been plowed, I can escape the house tomorrow. I can get a few things while I’m out, just in case.
This run gives us 6-10″
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″
Yes please Gary do it, I want to look at the Mondays storm and see if we get blasted again. I wonder if I will get snowed in this time. hehe.
brad
Well of course we’d love to hear from you…but Gary, you gotta rest up for whatever’s coming!
Only if you write it with lines from Rocky thrown in. Something like YO ADRIAN can you believe 2 storms within 4-5 days of each other.
Now that made me laugh! Thanks!
I hope that bullseye shifts to the north and east.
Yes please Gary and here’s GFS model run-
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif
That was the last GFS, but it is looking better here. Maybe this will really happen.
The new one is out in about 20 minutes.
Gary or anyone else who can we write to in order to get offical weather records recorded somewhere other then KCI? I mean KCI is so far away from civilaztion and the city of KC it’s crazy. I think records should be kept at Lee’s Summit airport. I understand the reasoning behind not wanting them at the downtown airport because of the inflated numbers for warmth and such.
Okay, I will write it up quickly and have it posted by 9:30 PM. And, then I will work on a new graphic for the 10 PM weathercast.
Gary
I happen to live by the KCI airport and thousands of people do up here and it is Kansas City city limits so clearly you live in a bubble of some sort not to say Lee’s Summit is not important as that is where my parents live. KCI is also not effected a lot by the heat of the city so it is a more accurate location for conditions within Kansas City city limits.
Shane Lee’s Summit airportwould not be affectd by the city heat. I said I understand why DOWNTOWN AIRPOrt is not used. KCI is just with in the limits and please the majority of people live 30 miles or so south of the airport. Who said Lee’s Summit was not important? Have another drink and hit of whatever your on.
I like to keep this blog more professional then that statement so no more response.
Whatever dude. Have a great night.
I just posted the blog Shane.
Great!
Lmao off at weather’s post! YO GARY. any info or insight would be greatly appreciated!
The GFS shows 8-12″ for the viewing area
I will go with 7 inches for this storm on Monday/Tuesday. The blog will be lighting up once again. Gary UPGRADE those SERVERS so the blog won’t crash.
Yes!! I excited to hear about this new storm!!!
Gary with this storm coming up will we eat lightning and crap thunder?
well i am not saying abything anf will wait and see if i am surprised.
Yes, please! I’m trying to write lesson plans for next week. After these two snow days, I need to know what to expect next week!
I’m just hoping the GFS doesn’t do a 360 on us.
Getting Storm Shield set up…so ez to access the blog! Crazy we have another storm on the way. Have one ear on TWC and they did put up a graphic specifically for KC and round #2 with Rocky! lol@weather’s comment! YO Gary…tell us more!
Little worried about the temps for the Monday storm.
Does anyone think the current snowpack will affect temps for Rocky?
Gary,
Will there be more wind with this one? And yes, it’d be great if you could post all of the official totals. Let it snow, and maybe we should use reverse psychology again. It worked last time!
The GFS should be out about now.
I was thinking that the temps may be 3-5 degrees colder then what the models are saying just becasue of the snowpack we and surrounding areas have. Do the models take the snowpack int consideration when forecasting temps?
My friend told me she heard this storm could be ice, but I’ve not really seen anyone on the blog mentioning that as a possibility. Is ice any possibility at all from this new storm or is it probably a toss between just rain or snow?? I’m not sure where she heard the mention of ice…
Probably rain and snow.
Thanks weatherkcmo!
Looks like the GFS is continuing to trend southward like the other models. It’s only at hour 45 but the low is farther south.
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif”
I normally have a hard time deciphering these weather maps…but not this one!! All I’ve got to say is WOW… I hope it pans out!!
New GFS shows 12″+ over the northern metro
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081″
I’d almost bet we get slammed again. The craziest stuff has happened with the weather here in the last 2 years. Wouldn’t suprise me a bit but oh my would that be a mess!
12 to 18 inches? I think snow madness is effecting ya Gary. NWS Topeka is saying 5.5″ for us out here in McLouth. As to the previous blog you put in there drifts were around 18″ and that was a contributing factor. 18″ snowdrifts out here are a fact of life and stop few if anyone. In this storm we had 3 foot plus drifts, that shut a lot of traffic down real quick.
I haven’t even tried to get out of my driveway yet!! The snow that has filled it in is at least 18 inches deep…it’s packed pretty tight too – my 95 pound kid can walk on it!
The GFS is giving the metro 11-14″ of snow!
Gary, thanks for all your work to make this a great place to come and learn about weather. I have learned so much over the years following and reading the blog. Both NAM and GFS would give us quite a bit of snow at the moment…going to be fun to track!
I hope we don’t get too much with this next storm. I only predicted 18 inches for this winter.
I am trying not to get excited. How awesome that would be to get two great snowstorms so close together. Fun and please happen!
I don’t think anyone posted this version of the NAM yet – it’s a bit more zoomed in that the other sites.
“http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
The HPC guys from earlier this afternoon sure seemed to like the idea of a low going from Eastern OK up to the Great Lakes (as depicted on this map).
Nice to finally have some exciting weather.
Cool, Gary’s ten o’clock newscast upped our chances of snow Monday/Tuesday and mabye Wednesday also to 90%. The one thing the last storm was missing was high winds. Gary, are you still thinking this could be a blizzard?
Wait, is he saying KC might be in the bulls eye with 12-18 inches? That what it sound like hes saying, but that one map makes it look more like Wichita is in the bulls eye.
Ok so with LRC, does this mean we should see these two storm systems come back to back in the future say spring/?
Olathe Matt, Yes, these storm systems will be weaker, but they will be returning this spring.
Gary
Uhh I was just curious about how much could potentially fall in the “sweet spot” of this storm wherever that sets up
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″
NAM
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″
gfs
yes heatmiser i was looking at NWS..the hazardous weather for wichita area makes it sound like the storm wil be more intense for that part of Kansas rather than here..
Hmmm…and yet GFS has us in the bullseye. NAM has Wichita in the bulls eye, but still has us getting 8+ inches. Cool.
That GFS is crazy! With either solution we’re talking 8+” maybe.
Okay, so GFS has 16, NAM has 8, split the difference and it’s 12 inches for KC…I’LL TAKE IT! LoL
Works for me. Hey, I’ll take six inches.
I just want a nice long blizzard!
yes the temperature difference issue…yet most of our snow still will be here so the surface temps will be colder as the snow falls, just may keep the plowed/treated roads from being so bad this time..
“http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_87HR.gif”
Latest GFS BLASTS the metro with 16-18″ of snow
mountain snowfall in KC is what that is
It seems as if your concentrating on the NAM Gary. At least that’s what I take away from your write up. What’s your take on the GFS? Seems to be giving the metro some pretty hefty amounts of snow.
It is amazing how powerful weather is, and what it is capable of doing both good and bad.
oh wow…wonder if NWS will put is in a ‘watch’ soon
I bet we’ll be under a Watch by tomorrow afternoon
That GFS went bonkers! Wow! Could you imagine?
Cant wait! This should give the drought a right cross to the jaw.
Just hope it holds.
Gary are you confident in us getting what the latest models are showing? Unbelievable that both of these storms were/are putting us in the bullseye!
This would be just crazy if this really happen again. I’m hoping it’s not to bad since I just got out of my driveway for the first time in two days. But if it will help with the drought, I’ll dig out again.
Lol. I love how this blog is still titled “New blog entry.” It’s hilarious to me for some reason, haha.
“http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png
GFS is giving us a good amount of snow
Still worried about the temps. Most of our snow cover now will be gone by Monday do it won’t really aid in cooling temps for the storm. That GFS is still pretty to look at though.
LMFAO “most of our snow cover will be gone by Monday”… Is this a joke? You think with temps at 38 on Sunday, 10-11″ of snow is going to melt that fast?… Not a chance. We will still have a lot of snow on the ground when this storm hits Monday.
I had close to 9″ and a it has reduced pretty dramatically with yesterday’s sunny weather. Everything touching the house is gone, and the main part of the yard probably lost a good 4-5″ in depth! The only really deep spots are where we threw the shovels full of snow to reach our car.
Weatherkcmo,
This snow will be here for awhile, but it’s not going to dramatically change the storm.
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge12_2013022312f072.gif”
from the HPC, chance of seeing atleast 12″ of SNOW
It seems Gary updated Sunday to 46, but still this snow isn’t going to melt anywhere near that fast
Ok, maybe I was exaggerating. It’s going to be in the 40s on Sunday and 32 tomorrow with plenty of sunshine. I think some will melt at least.
Just like last time, I’ll expect 4 inches, and I won’t be disappointed.
That’s what she said.
From what iv’e seen on the models as of now I would think 8 inches is a good bet. Spit the NAM and GFS in half, and you get a track right over KC. Time will tell
does the new NAM come out soon?
NAM starts to roll out around 2:00
Well… Is it on shore yet? What’s the word people its Friday Night.
We should have a better handle on it tomorrow.
Kcchamps I’ll probably be up with you lol. Been an eventful couple of days.
Not sure I’m liking the 12z Euro. The ULL seems a lot further south than last night’s runs.
Will be curious to see what happens with the NAM.
Couldn’t agree more Rick. This storm diving too far south is far and away the greatest concern with any potential impact on Kansas City. The trend has been a southerly one all day. It will be interesting to see the 06Z NAM here in a few minutes. I am definitely concerned that this thing will set up too far south for us to feel any significant impacts from it.
Probably a dumb question but can someone explain to me how I view maps on Instantweathermaps.com? I click on MAPS then I go to NAM CONUS? Then what? How do you know if its the newest one and when it came out?
It should have the most recent model run ready for you when you go to the site, if not, then look for the drop down menu that has the dates and times and select the one thats at the very top.
already WSW out for northern OK
is the storm supposed to move in more from the south?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072
NAM
latest NAM SLAMS the metro!
Wow! It certainly does. Sure will be something if it happens!
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif
24hr period NAM
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072
and most if not all of that 1.25-1.50″ of precip would be SNOW!
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
Woops. Should have waited to model to finish before posting!!
WOW!
the latest NAM would suggest 12-14″ for the metro
Still waiting for Earl Bakers site to update…
Storm is now onshore. OR/CA border.
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
I wouldn’t be surprised if some sort of watch would be issued later today, seeing as there is already a WSW in NorthCentral OK
I think they will wait until late afternoon after the 12z or 18z runs. These runs right now are the first ones that have on shore. So they will prob wait until next round and morning sampling
I wonder if they would issue a Blizzard Watch?
I would be surprised. Dont think the winds are going to be at blizzard levels.
LOL accu-weather is calling for 14 inches! LOL
LOL…Heat Miser….your picture is hilarious!
More snow? Lots of snow? Excellent!!!
Hey brother, you popsicle head! Some like it hot, but I like it REEEALLLY HOT! That being said, bring on Storm #2!!!! I want a blizzard!
It does my frosty heart good that you’re rooting for the snow. I may reciprocate and cheer on some exciting spring storms. A blizzard on Monday night would be too cool!
Thanks for liking my self portrait. I had to take several pictures of myself to get one that was just right. LoL
latest GFS SLAMS us too!
I’m astonished that you guys are awake…wonder if you work at night or have weathermania! Good for you – it’s nice to wake up and have all the information you’ve found in front of me.
Absolutely incredible!!!
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022306&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=081
GFS total precip is CRAZY
from the NWS latest Forecast Discussion:
“Snow ratios may be rather low with temperatures
barely below freezing in saturated portions of the profile, but with
intense precipitation rates and high precipitable water, totals
could still creep into the 6-10 inch range or even greater.”
“With these types of snowfall rates and amounts, a winter
storm watch will likely need to be issued today for much of the CWA.”
Poof
GGGRRRRR
409 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2013
…SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY…
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY…BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHERN…AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. BLOWING
SNOW MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST UP TO 30 MPH. WHILE EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN…THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGH.
good morning everyone,
NWS has the WSW creeping closer!! Topeka is now in one.
latest from NWS.
“http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”
European models now painting Bulls eye for KC just saw it on Today show!! 15″ plus
Crazy ness!!!!
wow!!Not turned TV on yet.
I saw that too and immediately started making a list for the grocery store.
I just got back from Walmart, it was a mess, stock levels low.
I saw that too.
are we dreaming work this really happened to us two storms in 1 week. bring the snow on we just got a new snow blower!!!!!
Cool! what kind? I have a Toro single stage 2 cycle, I LOVE it!!
Jeff
Write up a new blog if you can on your thoughts please!!
A few weeks ago we where banking on a few 1-2″ maybe 2-3″ snowstorms in Feb wow what a change did we move to the mountains?
WOO HOO! WSW for Lawrence!
TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO SEE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO freezing rain!
Just a little at the beginning! Don’t freak out!
Deep breath……okay!
It’s a Toro 621 QZR 4 stroke. It is supposed to be the largest single stage they make. It threw the snow 20 to 30ft. The 30yr old s200 would just not cut it. I could not believe they even discounted it. Bring on the next storm?
Cool, Mine is the 221QE with Quick Shoot I got the last of the 2 strokers.
Its a beast
This is actually worrying me. With the snow we have on the ground now plus this next storm’s snow we’ll have mounds of snow until April!
Cool!
Did you get it this year? I was a little worried the 4 stroke would lake power but it did not bog down ounce with the 12in in drive. When is the new blog being posted?
No, 2 years ago, the last year they were made. Thanks EPA
Its a Lawn Boy designed engine, sounds like it too. Nothing like the smell of 2 stroke in the morning.
Gary, I read every Blog, but seldom comment. I’d love to hear your take on this next system. As far as more snow, I say, enough is enough! Give me some hot weather, soon please!
If Gary were here, he’d say we’re gonna get slammed again w/lots of snow!
We need more snow!!!!!! Is Gary going to do a blog today? I hope so. We need his insight.
This is getting awesome again!
Accuweather is saying “around a foot of snow”
The reliability of notAccuweather is highly in doubt. Last storm they predicted 3.1 inches of snow…yea they missed that one. When the storm first made their forecast it was 9″. They changed it constantly to lower amounts. They should have stayed with their first hunch.
yeah, weather underground also said 2 inches for the last one, LOLOL
I will say again, and I think I speak for many, those posting maps of model predictions sure makes this blog a lot of fun. Thanks for those who put forth that effort.
Yeppers!
Bring it on my brother!
Agreed, very informative and fun to watch!
New NAM coming now. Links and data posts t follow
.DAYS 2-3…SUNDAY TO TUESDAY…
…POTENTIAL BLIZZARD SETTING UP FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL MS VALLEY…
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A CLOSED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY. THERE ARE TRACK AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAINING TO BE RESOLVED. THE 00Z ECMWF DRIFTED SOUTH
OF ITS PRIOR RUNS AND WAS JOINED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT OF SNOW TRACKING SOUTH FORM
KS INTO OK. ON DAY TWO…THE THREAT AREAS ARE IN EASTERN TO
CENTRAL CO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THE CO ROCKIES ONO THE
PLAINS TO THE NE AND KS BORDER BY 12Z MON. A SECOND AREA DEVELOPS
IN CENTRAL KS AS LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORMS UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA IN THE VICINITY OF THE 300 MB JET MAXIMA.
A HIGH RISK OF FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS SHOWN ON DAY 3 AS ALL MODELS
FORECAST AT LEAST TWICE THAT MUCH IN PARTS OF EASTERN KS TO
ADJACENT NORTHWEST MO…WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED IN ALL
MODELS. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WAS PAINTED FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES
OF SNOW…AS WELL AS AN AREA OF LOW PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN
12 INCHES OF SNOW…CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MO.
Heh heh…Heatmiser want blizzard!
The storm could still slip to the south…
The euro, ukmet, and canadian were still trending south. The storm is onshore now and the 12z models should have it better sampled. The 12z NAM will be interesting and it will be out shortly.
Bad, bad blizzard. Sit, boy, sit. Good boy. Now, come here, blizzard, come! Good blizzard.
The snow is pretty and I don’t even mind being stuck at home because of too much snow. However, there is an impact on this much snow… for those of us whose jobs pay them by the hour, missing work hurts financially. I already missed one day ($80 I will never see again)of work (I work part time due to health reasons). But if I get snow bound again, (an elderly neighbor dug us out yesterday with his bobcat, even with the bobcat it took him about 45 minutes and he knows what he is doing with it, our driveway is just that long) it will affect my ability to pay bills. My youngest is also worried about her paycheck as her two jobs also pay by the hour. At least with the lower paying job it is something she can telecommute and do. The husband can also telecommute but the eldest can’t as she works at St. Luke’s so I worry about her having to drive to the Plaza for work in bad weather. So I guess I will just have to stop stressing (yea right) and just go with the flow and hope everything gets paid and everyone stays safe.
That’s a bummer. We need to get you a job with the state so that when it gets bad, you get paid to stay home. I work for KU and bascially got two free “vacation days” last week.
sorry to hear that weatherfreak. I hope this new storm does not affect you to heavily!
Looks liker several other competitors news channels are predicting 6+ inch, near blizzard like conditions for Monday and Tuesday…they are showing more confidence in the forecast.
Accuweather forecast for Lawrence:
A snowstorm from tomorrow evening into late Monday night with blizzard conditions Monday night and will accumulate 6-10 inches
The new NAM is showing over 2 feet of snow in central Kansas! The snowfall maps for us will be finished in a few minutes.
Now it’s showing up to 3 feet of snow out west
Baton down the hatches people…this one looks like the real deal again..
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_1000_500_thick.gif”
Holy Moly!!! Better go get more gas for the Toro!
That Nam model is looking EPIC.