Good morning bloggers, it’s a windy start to the day. Temperatures were near 50 as of 9 am.
The strongest winds will blow in the morning. For the afternoon, the wind gusts should back off a bit, to around 20mph. With the SW winds and sunshine, we should be able to warm near 60°.
Red flag warnings are in effect for St. Louis, Columbia, Topeka today (Magenta color). The oranges represent Extreme and High Fire Dangers. Wind, dry air, warm weather, dry vegetation all are the contributing factors.
This evening, winds shift WNW and die down considerably. That’ll allow temperatures to drop into the low 30s overnight, possibly even upper 20s by Tuesday morning.
The clouds thicken Monday as we wait for Tuesday’s rain. Below is the forecast for the 24 hour precipitation totals Tuesday 3am thorugh Wednesday 3am:
Recent forecast have been supportive of 1/4″ to 1/2″ of rain for KC, the recent NAM backs off a little, but right now I see little need to change that forecast.
So then the question becomes: “How strong would Tuesday evening’s t-storms become?”
Below are two images. The first measures CAPE, or how unstable the atmosphere becomes. This is the basic driving force for how strong a thunderstorm updraft – and commonly the thunderstorm itself – can become. The second is the SPC’s slight risk for severe weather Tuesday evening.
The greens represent CAPE values that are relatively low, however they are high enough, especially this time of year, to potentially generate severe thunderstorms.
A big factor in the amount of instability is the temperature and moisture content near and just above ground levels. Temperatures in parts of Arknasas and NE Texas will push into the 70s with dew points in the 60s. Much more unstable than the low 60s with dewpoints in the low 50s forecast for KC. But this depends on our cloud cover Tuesday. If we see sun and get warmer, we’ll have to watch Tuesday late afternoon/evening for a higher risk of stronger t-storms.
We also have to consider the vertical wind shear – changes in wind speed and direction with height. There’s a tremendous amount of wind shear over the area Tuesday afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches.
The problem is, more wind shear isn’t always more favorable for t-storms. High wind shear with weak instability can rip t-storms apart. It’s when you couple high amounts of wind shear with large instability you commonly set the stage for large supercells. With weak instability a merry medium of wind sheer would optimize t-storm strength.
We’ll continue to monitor our severe weather threat for Tuesday evening. Right now the chance is very low in KC…I’ll update tonight at 5pm if that should change.
Thanks,
-GW
Great breakdown and very informative! Thanks!
George, great blog, the first one in the last 11 days dating back to Feb. 15th that has no mention of snow. . . . How long will this streak last? Awesome day today!
Let’s see what happens with Friday’s storm, ‘right Emaw?
-GW
Can’t stand this, need SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey GW,
I am sure Gary wouldn’t mind if you leaked the Spring forecast onto the blog a bit early.
Gary’s weather secrets are locked tighter than the orange julius recipe. He’ll let them out tomorrow on the spring forecast…but orange julius secrets will probably remain locked in a mall safe somewhere in New Jersey!
I wonder if the spring forecast will mention snow. . . ?
By the way things are going, I suspect a prolonged sever weather season this spring.
I’ve been thinking the same thing Matt. The last time I recall a winter like this growing up in Ohio, the Spring was very rough. I hope not but seems to me the big Xenia tornado happened in a cycle like this. Guess time will tell!