Mostly Calm Weather Pattern…For Now

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Today we will see a full sunny day for the first time in about 7-10 days as the weather pattern is not to active.  We have one main system to watch the next seven day, and it arrives this weekend. So, let’s go through the forecast into the weekend and discuss potential changes after the 20th.

Today we have a surface high pressure overhead, so we are in for sunshine, light wind and highs around 50°. A system is tracking across the southern USA and is producing some decent rain with the help of Pacific moisture.


THURSDAY MORNING: It will be slightly warmer as we will have light southwest winds ahead of a cold front. Look at the low in Bismarck, ND, 10°!. This is a decent cold air air mass and has looked stronger as we have gotten closer to the front’s arrival.


THURSDAY AFTERNOON: The front will be moving away quickly and our winds will be shifted to the northeast.  There will be no precipitation with the front, just a few clouds.  Highs will be kept in the 40s, staying in the 20s across the northern Plains.


FRIDAY MORNING: We will start to see an increase in the clouds with lows around 30° as a strong surface high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Our next storm system will be moving through the Rockies.


FRIDAY AFTERNOON: This is looking like a cloudy afternoon with temperatures struggling to 40° as this cold air mass is really entrenched in the Plains.


VETERAN’S DAY: The storm system is not that strong, but as it interacts with a shallow cold air mass it will create a complex surface pattern. But, all this means is that Saturday will be cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s along with the chance of a shower or some drizzle. The system will exit Sunday, but clouds and drizzle may linger into the early morning. If the sun can return Sunday then highs will be 45-50, otherwise highs may get stuck in the upper 30s and low 40s.


This is the upper level pattern next Tuesday which is representative of the weather pattern today through the 20th. That is, a pattern with fast-moving west to east systems that do not have much time to get their act together and produce much precipitation until they are east of the Mississippi river. This also prevents Arctic air from heading south into the USA. Yes, it will be cold Friday and Saturday, but this is not Arctic air.



It has been rather dry since October 22nd and it will stay that way another 10 days. It is still good to do one more lawn fertilization in November and it would be nice to see .10″ to .50″ of rain/snow, but the next 7-10 days will be mostly dry, unless something crazy happens over this weekend.


There are still signs of a change after the 20th as not only are the AO and NAO forecast to go negative which increases the chance of blocking at high latitudes (increases the chance of cold air farther south, lower heights and bigger/slower storm systems), but we also expect storm systems to drop in to the southwest USA as we believe the pattern is about to show it’s cycle of 45ish days. This means the systems from October 7-20 will be showing up and when coupled with negative AO and NAO could make for some interesting weather to round out November, just not on Thanksgiving.


Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff Penner


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