Most Accurate For The 11th Time

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system is moving through the western states and it will be followed by a second system targeting the Lake Tahoe area. I am seriously thinking of flying in there for two days just to see it snow. Should I go?  This winter in Kansas City has been a “disaster” for snow enthusiasts near KC and areas south and west of here.  So, maybe I should fly into one of my favorite places for a couple of days and see what it it’s like to experience a real storm. I will look at the data this morning and make that decision. Am I crazy? I have Thursday and Friday off, so I could go out there and come back Saturday?  The weather pattern is cycling regularly in the 44-51 day range, or around a 47-48 day cycle if you use the middle range.  These two storm systems coming into California are right on schedule.  Los Angeles is at a record pace for the driest rainy season ever recorded.  It rained last night, but only around 0.10″ fell. They had gone 47 days in a row between storm systems that brought any significant rain. You can’t make this statistic up.  Incredible, and I will show the cycling pattern in a video today.

We bring you the most accurate weather forecast every night on KSHB-TV.  The results just came in for this year. The season ends at the end of February. The next year begins March 1st. Not only was KSHB-TV the most accurate for the 11th time in 15 years, KSHB was more accurate than any score from any year, for any station in the entire 15 years.  In other words KSHB was more accurate than ever this past year, and our score improved for the fifth year in a row. Each of the past five years have been even more accurate than ever:

Screen Shot 2018-02-27 at 6.59.33 AM

We use the LRC, knowledge of the incredibly cycling pattern,  to help our team as storm systems approach, hit, or miss (mostly miss the past few winters).  Where are we now in this cycling pattern? Let’s check out how this storm fits the pattern:

Screen Shot 2018-02-27 at 7.40.42 AM

Yesterday we showcased the pattern from October 7th, likely around day 1 of this weather pattern. The two weeks before October 7th would be considered the transition period, and by around the end of the first week of October has been identified as the true beginning of the LRC each year. And, every year is unique. Our peer reviewed paper will be coming out in late March, and much of this is discussed. In that peer reviewed paper we showcase the 58.5-day cycle from the 2016-2017 winter season where the western drought got obliterated. This year we are showcasing the 47-day cycle, give or take a few days. Look at the maps above. Now, this is just one snapshot in time.  It is the entire pattern of the Northern Hemisphere that is cycling.  The LRC provides answers for why Amarillo still has NO snow this season; Dodge City has only 1″ of snow this season; Wichita, KS has only 0.3″ of snow this season; Los Angeles still needs two more inches of rain just to reach the record for the driest season in recorded history; and a reason for why KC will likely end up with under 10″ for the third winter in a row, something that has never happened before.  Look at that map comparison above.  Compare all of the features. The one that pops is the trough over the southwest, but the entire pattern lines up in this complex atmospheric puzzle. Now, look at two days earlier, the map comparison I showed yesterday:

LRC Comparison days1 and 142

So, it isn’t just this one day, it is again the entire pattern.  Incredible! What did KC get out of this October 10th storm, the one due in tonight and Wednesday?  0.07″ is all we had. But, it did produce, as it went by and went through a transition. This part of the pattern has cycled through in each LRC Cycle. In the last cycle, 17 people were killed in mudslides northwest of Los Angeles. Last night, the radar images from 48 days earlier and last night lined up incredibly, but Los Angeles this time did not get the excessive rainfall. This time it went a bit farther north. And, another storm is targeting Lake Tahoe later this week, so should I go?  Have a great day!

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. High:  67° north, 62° south as the clouds thicken up farther south first. South winds to southwest winds increasing to 20 mph or stronger this afternoon.
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Yes, there is a chance of a thunderstorm this evening. The chance of rain is 90%
  • Wednesday: It will start out cloudy and mild with temperatures in the 50s. A cold front will move through during the afternoon with a chance of drizzle or a band of rain. It will turn colder with increasing north winds by evening.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 Blog Have a great Tuesday!


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