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Morning Thunderstorms Form Early

Good morning bloggers,

What happened yesterday was absolutely fascinating, and thunderstorms were forming at 3:30 AM when I was writing this blog entry.  A series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft continues to bring the region these chances of rain, that are till producing hits and misses, and this morning is an other example of a hit or miss.   The south side of the KC metro area was the bulls-eye with over four inches of rain in spots as you can see with these rainfall totals:

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Yesterdays system left a disturbed area of unstable air lingering over the KC metro area, and areas to the northwest and southeast. At 3:30 AM, some new thunderstorms and rain showers were developing:

Screen Shot 2018-07-18 at 3.14.10 AM

There was a northwest to southeast band of unstable air, and one of the thunderstorms developing was just south of my house as I was writing this entry. If you remember the forecast from a week ago for today to be the cooler one with a high in the 70s with thunderstorms, well, it is close to happening, and sort of already happened with yesterdays cloudy and stormy high of 81 degrees. It is very early in the morning, but there is a good chance that it will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s either near KC, or just to our east today.  This was a forecast emphasizing the LRC, as this part of the pattern is directly related to around the time Hurricane Nate was forming right at the beginning of this years LRC, and in each cycle a storm dropped by KC at the same time, one of which was around January 9th to 11th, and we had a rainy day in January with that system; a cold blast with rain changing to snow with around .2 to .4 inches of rain followed by around 1/2″ inch of snow, and a drop from 51 degrees to 11 degrees.  The timing of the precipitation just wasn’t right as most of it fell as rain, before we had one of those black ice events the next morning when it dropped to 4 degrees.  This weeks cooler weather is right on schedule, but of course there is no Arctic air in July.  Today is 188 days later, or exactly 47 times 4 days ago, exactly on cycle.

In January, the Arctic air blasted in, and there is no Arctic air available in July, so what happens next in the July twist of the cycling pattern will be interesting.  It may go from the 70s in spots today, or into the lower 80s, and then all the way up to near 100 degrees by tomorrow afternoon.  Look at this forecast temperature map valid Thursday around 4 PM:

nam_T2m_us_14

Look at the cool pocket over Minnesota tomorrow, but what really stands out is a burst of heat that expands out over KC from potentially 110 degree plus air one state away.  Wow!  We will discuss this and much more on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely this morning, mainly near KC, and to the north and east. The chance of rain is 50% as some spots will still get missed once again.  High:  81° (70s in the areas that the rain lingers into the afternoon)
  • Tonight: A chance of a few thunderstorms developing again.  Low:  70°
  • Thursday:  Any thunderstorms ending, then sunny with much warmer temperatures. High: 96°
  • Thursday night-Friday:  A chance of heavy thunderstorms, a few may be strong.  High:  88°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or just read the comments to learn more about our exciting weather patterns.  Have a great day.

Gary

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