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Morning thunderstorms are drifting in from the northwest

Good morning bloggers,

We are currently tracking an area of rain with a leading edge of thunderstorms at 7 AM.  Here is a look at the 6:50 AM radar image:

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This area of rain still has some organization to it, but there is likely only around 3 hours or so of life left in this complex.  We will be tracking this through the morning on 41 Action News through the Today Show.

Weather Time-line:

  • This morning:  Increasing clouds with a chance of thunderstorms.
  • This afternoon:  Decreasing clouds, warm, and muggy.  The humidity will be high with south winds returning. High:  85°
  • Friday:  Partly cloudy, very warm, & humid.  South winds with a high of 86°
  • Friday night: Thunderstorms likely. A few may be strong with very heavy rain.
  • Saturday:  Turning much colder with highs in the lower 60s

Weather discussion:

A storm system, unlike any storm we saw in last year’s weather pattern, is becoming vigorous as it drops into the Rocky Mountain states today and moves out into the plains on Friday.  Here is the 500 mb forecast from the GFS model valid Friday evening:

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An upper level low will likely be moving out over western Nebraska by Friday night, and there is now a wave forecast to rotate around and down to near the base of the upper level trough as well.  You can see this wave tracking and developing across southwest Colorado. This will likely help slow the front down and we will be in the warm air deep into Friday evening. This may help it stay dry for the Friday Night Lights football games and the American Royal, but eventually a good chance of rain and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms will develop and move in between 9 PM and midnight.  This next map shows the surface forecast valid Friday night just past midnight.

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Colder air will move in Saturday and we may drop into the upper 30s by Sunday morning.  It will be a refreshing change as the humidity and pollen gets swept out of here.  Have a great morning and we will keep you updated on these thunderstorms on 41 Action News. Kalee Dionne is on KSHB tracking these thunderstorms this morning. Let us know what you experience. They have held together so far, but eventually they will weaken and the warm air will surge back in before the day is out.  I am on my way to the Champions for Survivorship Breakfast with Cancer Action. I am the guest speaker around 8 AM.  When I am finished at 9 AM these thunderstorms should be near Kansas City if they hold together.

Gary

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34 comments to Morning thunderstorms are drifting in from the northwest

  • yewtrees

    NWS: Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning, mainly across northern Missouri, but these should decrease through the afternoon.

    • yewtrees

      NWS: Models are in general agreement on the holding the frontal boundary nearly stationary from a developing area of low pressure over the CO foothills through south central NE and central IA. This should allow for scattered convection to once again form along the frontal boundary by early this evening. Conceivable that convection could once again threaten northwest MO overnight if another MCS forms and moves away from the frontal boundary like tonight.

  • trinlivco

    All I can say is bring it on!!! I hope our area gets blasted by several rounds of rain. Still very, very dry in our area. TR

  • frigate

    As you said, don’t jump to conclusions yet but so far I’m not seeing much difference in the pattern, especially with all the storms just to our south and east yesterday and last night and the wall of rain once again, fall apart on KC’s doorstep this morning. Same ole’ same ole!

  • greek

    Yeah, there may be changes taking place in the overall weather pattern, but we still get the same results in our area. Kind of like the last two years.

  • luvsno

    If this is the new LRC will this cold blast translate into a winter storm in late Nov ??

  • yewtrees

    Winter Storm Names 2013-14

    “http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-names-2013-2014-20131001″

  • sedsinkc

    The developing storm to the west and strong SW flow aloft ahead of this storm appears to be preventing this morning’s convective complex from moving any further south. It may not rain in southern Johnson County south of the 435 loop, and most of the rain will stay north of I-70.

  • sedsinkc

    Karen is revving up over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Winds up to 60 mph. Current NHC track takes Karen to a landfall in coastal Alabama or the Florida Panhandle on Saturday night.

    • sedsinkc

      Fortunately, wind shear should limit Karen’s strength to a weak hurricane at best and a strong tropical storm at landfall.

  • mukustink

    Gary how’s your mum? Hope she is still improving!

  • Gary reading the blog the past few days I now have the same question that muku had and that is is the new weather gal a met? I think it’s a legitimate question and discussion to have.

    Sorry to hear about your mom. Hope she is on the mend. Having been away didn’t hear the news.

    Thanks for the blog and the chance to discuss. How about them Chiefs! 4-0! They have played 4 weak teams so far and it will be a interesting to see how we do against the stronger teams in the league. Cheers.

    • mowermike

      Hey Edward,

      You mentioned a while back that the Chiefs only had 9 returning players, did you look at that wrong. I see more then 20.

      They have a big game this weekend.

      Rain moving in.

    • luvsno

      Edward (Humphries on FB)…..who do you think you are fooling ??? You and muku are the SAME person !!
      Let it go….quit with the relentless posts about the new met ! Gary does not owe you a response, and good for him he is ignoring your sophomoric, juvenile rants. Get a life! That is all I am going to say.

      • Theo

        Thank you for coming to Gary’s rescue! Why should he answer any questions about his staff? For God’s sake, all we had 30 years ago were “weathermen”. Who needs meteorologists?

      • luvsno you’re a riot. I’m not muku or anyone else. I don’t post much on here because it’s useless to have a discussion when you disagree with the Almighty. Just like you attacking me because I thought muku brought up a valid point and a valid question. I know when the wife and I are traveling I don’t want a geology major giving me a forecast on NWS radio. You can think what you want because I could care less. Take care pal.

  • sedsinkc

    Hmmm, latest NAM has KC getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain from tomorrow night’s system. The heavier rain doesn’t develop until the front gets well south and east of the city. Hope I get at least 1/4 inch from this morning’s activity.

  • weathermanwannabe

    Thunderstorms “drifting in” and drifting away!!!

  • anshad

    This storm did not fall apart.. It is raining so hard over by the speedway that I cannot see the grandstands from less than a 1/4 mile away. Cars are producing huge rooster tails of water. I have no rain gauge, but it is safe to say that a half inch has fallen in the last 25-30 minutes at least.

    Your doorstep might get missed, but the whole Speedway area is drenched!

  • Theo

    It’s held together 4 hours since Gary’s post and going strong. I’m sure Mikey will be on here with some sort of BS explaining the discrepancy so as to support his hero.

    • luvsno

      Theo….You are another one !! (But at least you use the same name each time). But above, in my reply to Edward, you thanked me for ” coming to Gary’s rescue” (which he is fine and does not need rescuing) , and now here you are on the flip side insulting him and Mike. So what if Mike considers Gary a “hero”, or believes in Gary ? What is it to you?
      You boys need to get a life, both you and muku/Edward. You both come to the blog for no other reason than to stir things up. I will not be surprised if one day soon the moderators close the blog to comments, because of people like you.

  • sedsinkc

    0.60″ from this morning’s activity in KC North just S of Gladstone. Latest GFS still shows KC region getting rainfall on the order of .5 to 1.0 inches tomorrow night. Solution is quite a bit different than the NAM’s most recent solution which I posted about earlier this morning.

  • mowermike

    Seds,

    Yep…good rainfall north of the river. I just looked at the latest GFS run also, it’s been pretty consistent with the line of storms firing up to the NW of KC and then moving through sometime tomorrow night. Last 3 runs have been the same. I wonder if there will be a similar set-up tomorrow morning with another MCS.

    • sedsinkc

      Mike, I don’t think there will be an MCS in our area tomorrow morning. Strong south to southwest winds and warm air advection locally at all levels will keep the activity in northern Missouri at its southernmost extent, if it’s there at all. The storms won’t be able to migrate this far south tomorrow AM, imho. But hey, I’m only a geologist. ;)

      • Weatherfreak01

        Sedsinkc,

        You are a geologist? Who do you work for? My eldest daughter is getting ready to graduate from UMKC with her Masters in Geology.

        Now back to the weather.. We had a good tstorm here in Lee’s Summit. Wind, thunder, good rain. Now it seems to have run its course..

        • sedsinkc

          Today, I’m semi-retired but work seasonally in a non-geologist position with the Federal government. What is your daughter’s specialty? I have an M.S. in geology from Southern Methodist University in Dallas where I studied sedimentology and its applications to petroleum geology.

  • Theo

    Gee seds, you should have applied at KSHB. You would have been hired! Mikey applied, but they don’t hire dumbasses from NW of Liberty.

    I see the thunderstorm complex that was supposed to fall apart by 10am is still going strong in NE Missouri at 3pm. Must have been the geologist forecast, not the meteorologist.

  • f00dl3

    Do you think thunder is going to hold off until after 8 PM Friday? I’m looking at NAM, NAM HighRes, and GFS – all of them seem to think after 9 PM – but just want to see if KSHB thinks the same.

  • Theo

    And a full 12 hours later, Mikey, the storm that was supposed to fall apart is as strong as ever over Central Illinois. Looks like it will go at least another 12. That’s your early evening geological forecast.

  • Drought Miser

    I wonder if Str8 line winds will be an issue tomorrow night it looks like that along with pea size hail could be our greatest severe threat!!

  • Hockeynut69

    DM-Based on how this storm is setting up I would say straight line winds and hail for our area and the possibility of tornadoes up in Iowa. Looks like another system setting up in Nebraska tonight but I am too tired to watch it. Been up since 3:30am. Time to call it a night.