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Morning Fog. Mid-Week Snow?

Good morning bloggers,

Patchy morning fog has been dense in spots.  The picture below was taken just before sunrise from downtown KC.


After sunrise, the fog thickened across the metro.  This prompted the National Weather Service to both expand an early morning Dense Fog Advisory to include a good chunk of the metro, and also extend that advisory until 11 a.m.  By 8 a.m., fog had reduced visibilities to less than 1/8 of a mile in spots.  Below is a look from our Overland Park camera at roughly that time.


Yesterday people were playing golf on this golf course.  This morning you couldn’t even see.  Who knows, maybe some of us would play better in these conditions!  At least winds will be very light today… 

Below is a look at the Dense Fog Advisory through 11 a.m.  Fog will linger on beyond 11 a.m.


Expect calm conditions today, with a very light north wind advecting some slightly drier air into KC.  After a gray afternoon, temperatures will get even colder by tomorrow morning.  We’ll also watch the chance for fog to develop again overnight.

Naysayers start your engines!  We’re talking Wednesday night snow!

The setup above shows the mid-week storm system that will track through the midwest.  The red arrows show the proposed track of the surface low pressure system.  The exact track the low makes will play a large role in the type of precipitation we get.

The above forecast tracks the low over northwestern Arkansas, then to eastern Missouri, eventually toward Lake Michigan.  This path tracks the low south of KC.  It would draw air to KC cold enough for us to get snow.  If this were the case, we could expect a light rain Wednesday evening that would changeover to snow overnight.  There would be the possibility for accumulations, especially north of I-70, by Thursday morning.  GFS bufkit profiles suggest 1-2″ of snowfall over KC, but I’m not going with that as my forecast yet.  Here’s why.

Another forecast model, the NAM, suggests the low may take a more northward track and move over KC.  This would limit the amount of air cold enough to support snow within the timeframe that precipitation is falling over KC.  If so, it would delay the changeover from rain to snow and would limit the amount of snow we would see Wednesday overnight.  Let’s see how this forecast model evolves over the next 18 hours.  We’ll have an update on our 5 pm news.

Keep your eyes on this forecast.  If we do get the snow, roads could get slick for the Thursday morning commute.  Blustery and frigid winds would add to the problem by blowing snow around making for a not-so-pleasant reminder that it’s December.

Have a good Sunday!

Let it snow? 
or
Oh no?

-GW

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62 comments to Morning Fog. Mid-Week Snow?

  • weatherman brad

    I keep telling you guys, December 20 is going to snow. hoping I win my pick.

    brad

  • Kole Christian

    How are we looking for snow on Wednesday?

  • R-Dub

    NWS sure seems bullish on snow Wednesday night…finally there might be something to track….

  • stl78

    Wow rdub…..your not kidding. Thats some pretty strong wording! WAY too early to get worked up over

  • stl78

    Good luck Brad! If u win then u can prove to everyone that u are in fact a jr at ku.

  • The 12z GFS is still calling for close to an inch of snow…

  • Emaw

    Once again, I will look forward to posting my snowfall totals Thursday. . . . Hilarious!

  • davidmcg

    NWS Topeka has snow chances in McLouth at 50% Wednesday night. They believe it will begin snowing around 6PM with a final total of roughly 3.2″ ending about 5AM Thursday morning. This far out, that is a very optimistic forecast and probably very premature. They had also forecasted 0.50″ to 0.75″ of rain here the other night just a few hours before it started, and we ended up with 0.34″

  • sedsinkc

    Hope the NAM is right, for at least 3 reasons, all of which are personal and selfish.

  • mukustink

    George good luck at the new gig. Sorry to see you leave. Were you forced out due to you not believing in the LRC? Hvae fun in sunny Florida.

  • weatherman brad

    thanks for all od your support everyone, I hope I do win. I think the top prize was a neckles tushchaser and the second prize was a ring of some kind.

    brad

  • mukustink

    If Brad wins the contest his mom will be happy as I’m sure he will give the prize to his mom for payment of rent for living in the basement.

    Mr. President I would lock Brad up in a long term contract before Gary gets him to replace George!

  • mukustink

    GEORGE DON’T LEAVE. PLEASE STAY. PLEASE DON’T GO! IT DOESN’T SNOW IN FLORIDA YOU KNOW. SINCE YOU ARE GOING TO LEAVE CAN YOU PLEASE TAKE BRAD AND MIKEY WITH YOU :). WE LOVE YOU MAN!

  • weatherman brad

    if I leave with george then I will never see snow again. I would love to stay here in kc then dealing with any type of severe weather or hurricanes in florida.

    brad

  • McCabe58

    Kcchamps post away brotha!!!!

  • R-Dub

    Would not be surprised by widespread 1-2″ this week. Doesn’t take a whole lot of moisture to make that happen. Also would not be surprised if the low goes too far north and we miss out on snow. We’ll see but I’m leaning towards snow.

  • Emaw

    We’ll know a lot more by Wednesday night. ;)

  • There is going to be a problem w/ measuring the snow,if we get any…The wind will be blowing out of the n/w at 25mph,w/gust to 35mph…

  • One last thing to mention, both the GFS&EC are calling for a major(?) winter wx. event on the 26th…the exact tract is pointing at our area,or just south of our area…WOW…BRING ON THE MOISTURE !!!!!

  • HIT,EM IN THE LEFT KNEE…HIT,EM IN THE RIGHT KNEE…HIT,EM IN THE WENEED A TOUCHDOWN….GOOOOO CHIEFS….. :)

  • kellyinkc

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=OAX”

  • davidmcg

    this storm that is lining up mid-week, if this were a week earlier I would say zero chance of any accumulation. The ground temp was far to high. The rain Friday night has helped cool the surfac/ground temp. I just took a reading 6″ down and it was 37.6°F, only slightly higher than our current air temp 5 feet off the ground of 34.3°F. It won’t take very high snowfall rates to get it to stick to grass, I am thinking more likely now rather than less likely. But here is a puzzle. NWS and even our team there in studio all said the fog would be gone mid morning, then around 8AM all changed that to 11AM, then about 10AM everybody jumped up and said 3PM. So, now with it being 3:57PM we still have very light fog and soon freezing fog will be flowing back into the McLouth area just like this morning. So, if they can’t get the weather pinned down a few hours off, how can they forecast 3 days into the future?

    • 1. We did not say the fog would be gone mid-morning.
      2. We’ve all heard that “puzzle” before. That doesn’t mean we can’t figure this out…
      Keep your predictions coming, please!

  • f00dl3

    I’m not thinking it’s gonna snow. Even if it did, falling on the 20th, it would be long gone in 5 days – especially with zonal flow. 0% chance of white Christmas. Still thinking our first inch hold off until after Jan 15th – if we get an inch this whole winter. Precipitation wise, this snowable-season has been drier than last winter. Temperature wise, one could argue it’s been warmer if you take away the month of October – which appears to have been a pure fluke in the LRC as there is no sign of us even getting to the single digits any time soon.

  • f00dl3

    Next summer we will hit 115 degrees for sure. Once we get to that point, even those cold fronts which were strong enough to give us several days below 95 degrees this past summer will only knock us down to 100 degrees. If we do not get mositure soon, based on the LRC we are currently in, we will see less than 7.5″ of liquid precipitation in 2013.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_90HR.gif” Here is the latest 18z SNOW map :) this is my first post since the last time we had snow in the forecast! glad to be back

  • ChiefsFan

    How much is it showing for metro kc Kcchamps? I not good at reading these maps, thanks

  • f00dl3

    Keep in mind the NAM keeps this thing well well well north of Kansas City, and I have a feeling the NAM is more right since we will have warm air winning out.

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • I AM “KING KEVIN”…NO MORE Mr.PRESIDENT KEVIN…….I RUUUULE !!!!!!!!!!

  • weathermom

    Thanks KCChamps for the maps. I enjoy the posts of the “good” bloggers especially as we get close to storms.

    Tushchaser, you need a timeout. You sound like you are losing it.

  • McCabe58

    Lol weathermom he’s already lost it. And muku aka Kevin I’ve been on this blog for over 3 years now. You’re the only one who has had multiple names on here. Personality disorder maybe? Who knows.. Anyways mower mike is one of the “good bloggers” who can actually add something here. I’m really not wasting anymore time on you lol, you enjoy your sad little life being a troll on the blog. One day Gary will make a block button. Btw KC champs we appreciate as always for the maps! Keep it up man!

    • mukustink

      OK your right Mikey adds the meet me at my office and I’ll show you. That adds a lot to the blog hey. McGabby we know you are aka mowermike. It’s all good my friend. Thunderbuddies for life :).

  • rred95

    Thanks for the maps kc Champs … Always look forward to seeing them.

  • mukustink

    WOW. Maybe I’ll eat my words on the snow. The new data is showing a big storm for Wednesday. Looks like possibly 6-10 inches. This is only one run so lets see what it looks like tomorrow. KCchumps post a map of the new data please. Thanks.

    Just kidding.

  • mukustink

    Looking forward to Gary’s blog in the morning. I can’t wait to see how much hype there will be towards Wednesday’s slim chance of the white stuff. Should be a good read and laugh :)

    • Weatherman Kumke

      I’ll bite on the snow chance since My Birthday is Tomorrow and would love to see snow this week. Going with 4 inches.

  • RickMckc

    Does anyone know of other local weather forums where people actually discuss THE WEATHER without every other comment being something from an imbecile? Where there are actually MODERATORS that DO something?

    I’ve been looking forward to becoming more active here now that it’s winter (as I have done every year for the past five), but if something doesn’t change soon, I’m done here. This blog used to have some really good discussions about WEATHER.

    • Weatherman Kumke

      There are no other “Local” Weather forums. There is accuweather but it’s mostly people from the Ohio Valley and Penn State students.

    • I understand your pain. I submitted another one with a link to a location where we could discuss these directly, but it is currently awaiting moderation.

      Basically, I created a subreddit for blog discussion on the reddit website. The subreddit is called kshbweatherblog. You can find it by going to reddit.com/r/kshbweatherblog (add www to the beginning)

  • RickMckc

    Looking even better for Wednesday PM if you like snow (or if you are weathermanbrad).

    “wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    GFS also showing almost .5 of moisture which would be great regardless of the form.

    • Does it appear to be trending south and west? If you want a weather event to look forward to, I believe you want the NAM to trend towards the GFS.

  • The chances of a (major) snow storm is increasing for christmas…I,m putting it at 30% at this time… :)