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More Thunderstorm Chances, More of the Same?

Good Saturday bloggers,

I was on vacation in Colorado and a had a great time. I went whitewater rafting for the first time and zip lined over the Royal Gorge, my first time zip lining. It was also firsts for my wife and son. Skyler said this trip has changed him. #thistriphaschangedme. We had a blast!

Penner White Water

Penner Zip Line

When I was out there I know we had our first heat wave and then we had some thunderstorms, but once again they were falling apart as they moved through, so some locations did not see much rain. Officially, we are still close to 5″ below average rainfall for the year.

Today will be dry after a few morning sprinkles and light showers. The next chance of thunderstorms is for Sunday night into Monday and the data wants very badly to have it fall apart before it arrives.

We will show data from our in house computer model, the 6Z and 9Z Saturday data runs.  It is the same old thing as we are in the same old pattern.

6Z DATA FOR 11 PM SUNDAY: We will be tracking thunderstorms forming in western Kansas Sunday afternoon as a disturbance heads out of the Rockies. We will have a slight chance of thunderstorms around here during the day. This data has the large complex of thunderstorms making it to KC intact. This would be great.

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9Z DATA FOR 11 PM SUNDAY: Well, look at that. The thunderstorms are breaking apart and staying mostly south. We shall see as this is not set in stone, but my goodness it fits this season.

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6Z RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: There is another chance of rain and thunderstorms Monday as a new disturbance comes in from the southwest. So, the 6Z data showed widespread 1″-3″ of rain in locations that need it.

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9Z RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: This shows quite a reduction in the rainfall potential and this certainly is possible as this is 2018 in our area. The 9Z data even broke apart the Monday thunderstorms before they arrive.

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SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY: The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting the 9Z data is more likely as the best chance of severe weather is in southwest Kansas with no risk just east of KC. Now, we can still see some decent rain without severe, but again, we know how this season is going.

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Have a great weekend and we will see what subsequent data shows.

Jeff Penner

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