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More Storm Misses Likely In KC

Good morning bloggers,

We begin this January 16th blog entry with a discussion of the Frigid conditions. It is below zero in KC this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 7.32.06 AMThe temperatures have dropped to below zero in most locations.  An Arctic high pressure area is expanding out over the United States this morning and pressures are very high. The pressure on this current conditions posted here is 30.71″ and it is rising. I will explain this high pressure area on our weathercasts tonight that you can always watch streaming live at KSHB.com at 4, 5, 6, 6:30, and 10 PM.  The storm system responsible for the Texas winter weather this morning, is really just a “jet dynamics” system. There is no big storm heading into San Antonio, TX in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and yet they have had an extremely dramatic weather change in the past 24 hours.  It was 70° in San Antonio yesterday afternoon, and this morning they have freezing rain and it is in the upper 20s. It is very rare for them to have freezing rain, sleet, and snow, and this has happened multiple times this season in this part of the country in this years cycling pattern. Take a look at the current conditions in San Antonio as of 7 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 7.41.42 AM

From 70° to 29° and freezing rain in San Antonio……pretty amazing.  Let’s take a look at how our winter forecast has been panning out as of this week:

Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 7.37.09 AM

The weather pattern is cycling at around 44 to 51 days centered on a 47-day cycle.  Let’s find where we are now by watching this video I made this morning:

Video:

Let’s look At Where We Are In The Cycling Pattern from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

This next storm system is right on schedule for this weekend.  Will it miss Kansas City? Has Kansas City had a major winter storm this season. The answers are likely Yes it will miss, and Yes, there has not been a major winter storm this season. Will one or two come together in this cycle 3, or in cycle 4? There is hope. The jet stream reaches its peak strength across the Northern Hemisphere in late January and early February. We may get some blocking after it gets to its peak. I would like to see the AO and NAO dip negative. We have had all of this cold with no real negative Arctic Oscillation this season.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog and sharing in this experience featuring the cycling pattern, the LRC, and Weather2020. Go over to Weather2020 and join in the conversation. Have a great day.

Gary

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