Good afternoon bloggers,
Here is a picture from the nose of an airplane at KCI Airport this evening. Derek Emshoff sent it in showing the little bit of snow coming down:
I am in Las Vegas analyzing the data. Should I fly back to Kansas City or stay here as planned to celebrate the New Year. It depends on what happens with this next storm. In the last cycle of the LRC there was a separation of the southern wave in this part of the cycle. It is doing something similar this time, but how long will the wave hang in there before it shears out? Let’s take a look at the 500 mb forecast map from the 18z NAM model that just came out. This is the 60 hour forecast valid at midnight Monday morning:
A wave dropping down the west coast now will get ejected out by another wave (the X on the California/Nevada border). A strong warm advection pattern is likely going to develop but there are still many questions.
This next map is valid at 6 AM Monday morning. The ejecting wave is heading right towards us, but how long will it hold together. We are firmly in a developing warm advection pattern with a Gulf of Mexico influence if this verifies.
By 6 PM this computer model, and most others that I have seen, begin a major shearing process of this wave. But, it is still strong enough to help produce bands of snow. You can see how positively tilted this storm is trying to become and so quickly by noticing the trough in Canada stretching from northeast to southwest into our area. This is forecast to completely shear out and weaken during the next 12 hours into New Year’s Day.
So, what do these likely developments mean for our weather in and around Kansas City? The GFS came out with a very similar solution in the upper levels to the NAM model, but was a lot lower on precipitation totals.
It is Friday Night In The Big Town! Let’s wait on another two days worth of model runs before making too many conclusions. For now, some snow seems likely but there are still too many questions as there always are three days before a potential storm.
Our weather team will keep you updated on 41 Action News and I will be checking in from Vegas. It’s a beautiful day here today! Have a great Friday night.