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Missouri River Flooding & Rain Is In The Tuesday Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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This picture shows the Missouri River flooding near Nebraska City.  The Missouri River will is reaching record high levels with major flooding now in progress over parts of Nebraska and Iowa with some developing just northwest of Kansas City.  River flooding is quite different from other types of flooding as it lasts much longer than other flooding scenarios.  The spring forecast from Weather2020 is for this weather pattern to continue and the rains will be increasing and becoming heavier.  The location of the heavier rains is still being defined and this will impact future flooding.  The current flooding is being caused by the recent rains combined with the melting of a lot of snow.

The weather pattern is cycling regularly and the  LRC describes an order to the chaos and this next part of the cycling pattern is another exhibit to showcase this organization and regularity.   There is a disturbance moving into the plains now, and this disturbance is directly related to what has happened in previous LRC cycles, and  seen on December 9th in cycle 2; it is positively tilted.  A positively tilted trough extends from northeast to southwest, whereas a negatively tilted trough extends from northwest to southeast.  This type of storm is rarely wet, and  rarely produces precipitation in Kansas City, and yet this one is continuing the wet trend of where most systems are producing.

5Last Week I shared with you the big upper low, and how it was almost identical to the big upper low in December.  And, now here we are just around a week later, and even this “strange” storm as you can see below, is directly related to the pattern from 100 days ago. The LRC describes the river of air that is cycling across the Northern Hemisphere, and we just experienced an interesting oscillation in the fluid dynamics affecting this years pattern.  The pattern is being influenced by many forcing mechanisms, likely driven by the large ocean waters, and also a land-sea combination with seasonal differences.  I know I am getting a bit deep here, but just look at a river flowing by.  Look at the middle of the river and you will see the main flow that is similar to the jet stream over the Northern Hemisphere. And, then there are influences on this main flow all around it.  But, the river is consistently flowing regularly.  Now, remember the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere does not have physical boundaries like a river would have on the ground. This is actually a huge difference. There are still other influences on this river of air.

This is really an incredible example of how even some of the more unusual features in the flow, in the river of air above us, are predictable using the LRC.

So, what does this mean for our weather?  And, what are we expecting as spring approaches?  Spring begins officially on Wednesday, but according to my peers, spring already began on March 1st.  Let’s take a look at this storm system approaching.

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The positively titled storm system, combined with the overall flow across North America is causing this interesting set for early this week. This map above shows the surface pattern valid at 1 PM this afternoon. High pressure will be over Nebraska and Iowa, right over the location of some of the more significant Missouri River flooding that is in progress.  A warm front will be developing over northern Oklahoma and it will lead to this forecast surface map for tomorrow, below:

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An area of cold rain will be developing. The blue dashed line, near Kansas City, has been the snow line this winter season.  Now that we are in March, and depending on the set up, the snow line is more likely to be the 534 line, or the second blue line. There are a few models that have been showing some snow over Nebraska, with rain near Kansas City by Tuesday morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny with light and variable winds.  High:  53°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds and becoming cloudy with a chance of rain by morning. Low: 38°
  • Tuesday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain developing.  The amount of rain between Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 1/2″.  High:  47°

This weather pattern is moving into the spring version of the LRC.  We will be looking ahead to opening day of baseball season and we will be in search of Kansas City’s first 65 degree day since October in tomorrow’s blog. Yes, it has not been 65 degrees since October 30th, a record that is hard to comprehend.  We are smashing the longest time period between 65° days.  It won’t happen this week, although there may be one warm up into the lower 60s around Friday that may come close.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the ActionWeather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

 

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