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Michael Destruction & Possible Snowflakes In KC

Good morning bloggers,

“It feels like a nightmare,” Linda Albrecht, a councilwoman in Mexico Beach Florida, said of the catastrophic damage in her town. “Somebody needs to come up and shake you and wake you up.”

Major Hurricane Michael is the top weather story.  Fatalities appear to be very low, and this is incredible given the strength of this system. As of my writing this story, only two deaths were reported. Unfortunately the destruction is considerable in many cities as Major Hurricane Michael slammed ashore on Wednesday.

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Michael began forming in the old LRC on October 2.  It then got organized just as the new cycling pattern was settling in, and it then got caught in the new cycling weather pattern that we will be experiencing for the next year.  It was fascinating to watch unfold as it entered this years Weather2020 forecast hot spot for the season. All four land falling named storm systems hit the predicted hot spot from last December.  Now, the jet stream will be strengthening and dropping south in the next few weeks as winter approaches. There will likely be two or three more named storms this season, and the chance of another one hitting the United States will get lower and lower as the weeks go by.

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This map above shows the 500 mb flow valid Saturday morning.  This developing pattern has my attention this weekend. Could Kansas City see some early snowflakes this year?  There is a disturbance forecast to develop and intensify over Idaho and drop south.  Some separation in the flow is predicted by some of the models as you can see below:

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Separation in the flow develops, and an upper level low tries to form just west of Denver, CO on Sunday.  This puts KC back into southwest flow.  If there is enough separation, and that trough (almost upper low) strengthens just a bit more, it will create an organized band of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night.  Some of the models, including this European Model below, is modeling a band of snow as the precipitation is coming to an end by early Monday morning. The blue shows the precipitation type as snow. Temperatures are forecast to be above freezing, so no accumulation would be expected, and we just need to watch this closely.

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Before this storm arrives, there is another system coming our way tonight and Friday. It will be difficult to not turn on the furnace tomorrow. I haven’t turned mine on yet, have you?  Take a look at this:

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This first system, on the heals of a very wet beginning to this years pattern, also shows some potential for snowflakes over northern Missouri Friday.  It likely will be too warm for this one. That pink dashed line shows where the 540 thickness line is, and that is often the rain/snow line.  We can also see Michael intensifying as it moves out over the open water of the Atlantic Ocean, and Sergio moving across the Gulf of California. What a fascinating pattern we have to monitor!

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  The sun should break out. It was down to 40 degrees early this morning with a few spots in the 30s.  Expect northwest winds 5-15 mph. High:  51°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds. A 90% chance of rain by morning. Low:  42°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain.  Rainfall amounts up around 0.25″ are expected. High:  46°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. High:  57°
  • Sunday:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snowflakes by Monday morning.  High: 41°

Have you read some of my forecasts in the past week. I haven’t written anything like these in years for the KC region.

Big Changes Next Week:

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This last map shows the weather pattern on Sunday night, when the Chiefs will host a Sunday Night Football game against Cincinnati.  The Bengals come to town and I can only imagine how loud it will be as we cheer on our superstar Patrick Mahomes as he leads the Chiefs at home a week from Sunday. We have a big battle in New England this Sunday, and the weather looks good!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let’s share in our weather experience by going to the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day!  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Share In The Weather2020 Blog

Gary

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