Merry Christmas Forecast

Merry Christmas Everyone!

It is a very cold Christmas Day in Kansas City. A storm is messing with meteorologists to our south with a complicated weather forecast. I feel bad for the meteorologists in Oklahoma City where I started my career in 1985.  The writing was on the wall yesterday when the storm was obviously going even farther south. So, the 5 inch snowfall forecast for Oklahoma City appears it will be a bust, although I think they could have made that call as early as yesterday morning. The storm went farther south than predicted a couple of days ago.  Here is the upper level 500 mb forecast valid at 6 PM tonight:

The upper low is going to track just south of the Red River Valley of north Texas and southern Oklahoma.  This storm becomes more dynamic as we go through the evening hours and it leaves the southern plains. The set-up is there for a Christmas Severe Weather Outbreak:

The Storm Prediction Center has this tornado outlook for today:

The 15% hatched area is in the moderate risk area today and strong tornadoes are possible.  Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama are the target area today.  We will track this development on 41 Action News tonight as well.

While the deep south has the potential of this severe weather outbreak, we will be deep into the cold air. I got Breezy and Stormy out early for a birthday picture with Breezy working. Today is Breezy’s seventh birthday. She fetches the paper for me every day.  Here is a picture of Breezy and Stormy this morning. We did somewhat have a white Christmas!

Have a great Christmas Day.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. We will look ahead into 2013 on 41 Action News tonight. Watch Sounds of the Holidays on 41 Action News at 10 AM.

Gary Lezak and the 41 Action Weather Team

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23 comments to Merry Christmas Forecast

  • Gary I Have A Picture of my Gal,and I,that resembles the picture you took of those dogs,from BORA BORA….I Shouldn,t post it….My Gal might KILL ME !!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS !!!!!

  • McCabe58

    Any snow showers here Gary?

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, what does Friday look like as far as snow for kc metro area? Thanks, merry Christmas

  • KUweatherman

    We’ve been getting snow flurries here in northwestern Olathe most of the morning. Even have some minor, and I mean minor, accumulation on the grill cover.

  • hobart

    Man, it’s windy and cold out here in the country. When do the above average temperatures kick in? Heck, I’d be happy with the 30’s.

  • kellyinkc

    very light snow shower here in Raytown. I can see it blowing on the road now.

    Merry Christmas everyone!

  • NorthlandKB

    Im spending a warm Christmas down here in Lake Charles, LA where we are currently under a tornado watch. We will probably only get straight-line winds as the bow echo is now forming to about an hour west. Points northeast of my location should bear watching for tornado action, as they are in a more favorable spot.

    Merry Christmas!

  • f00dl3

    Weird – we were expected to get to 5 now it says 10 Wednesday morning. Is it just me, or are we even warmer than last winter for nighttime lows. Last year our coldest reading was 4 degrees.

  • Kole Christian

    Merry Christmas Gary! Anybody know what the how much snow Wolf Creek is suppose to get this week? My brother, some friends, and I are going out there Thurday.

  • McCabe58

    F00dl3 I don’t think that’s “weird” it’s only December 25th…

  • Skylar

    Steady, but very light snow since early this morning. Light dusting in the little corners where the wind blows everything.

  • acn

    I am in Hot Springs, AR, and was planning on leaving early tomorrow morning to head back to KC. Think i should push it off a day?

  • f00dl3

    What’s interesting is this is kind of related to the part of the pattern in early October where Artic air intruded to our east. As storms keep digging to our southeast (MO Boothill) these areas will continue to get snowfall. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cape Gireadu or Sikeston or somewhere in the boothill saw a seasonal snowfall total approaching 30″ this year, while we struggle to even hit 10″.

  • McCabe58

    Gary I see that you guys moved the 30% chance of snow to Saturday. Does it look to be anything significant?

  • restull

    Looks like us folks here in central Kansas will be looking at another 30+ day stretch without a whiff of precipitation. We recently broke a 30-35 day stretch that ended in the middle of December. It’s already been 5 dry days, and the long term outlook is very bleak. SIGH…

  • McCabe58

    That’s strange… They have conflicting 7 day forecasts on their news app.. One said 30% on Saturday, but now it shows 30% on Thursday? And the other one still shows 30% for Friday.. So what’d he say about Friday? If you don’t mind sharing lol, didn’t get a chance to see the broadcast!

  • f00dl3

    McCabe – The website forecast always goes out of synch on holidays and weekends. I’m guessing the website forecast is based on if the guy enters the forecast temperatures on time it works fine but if the forecast is not updated it advances the day forward to make it “look” like someone updated it, even though they didn’t. I’m guessing that’s why many times around 3 or 4 PM instead of showing tomorrow’s forecast, it just moves the weekday forward one day while keeping the same forecast until the weatherman actually updates it with a new 7 day. Makes sense, because if he’s not there to forecast the weather for day 7 there is no data, and it’s forced to use the last data set. Kind of wish it would just say “day 7 not available” or something, instead. It’s really kind of misleading, especially for a station that has this 3 degree warranty when the forecast is a whole day off on the website.

  • Theo

    Won’t get cold at night until there’sn snow on the ground. That’s why it never got cold last year. Why do you pay attention to any forecast longer than 3 days out? They always change. I honestly think you folks have horribly boring lives that you spend all day on a weather blog when there’s nothing going on.

  • McCabe58

    Lmao all day theo? You really shouldn’t be talking about boring lives when you come on here and talk bad on other people for posting in a blog… Kinda like the pot calling the kettle black, huh?